 Tuesday's Daily Fantasy Baseball Slade has a lot of good pitchers on it. There are a lot of guys We have used throughout this year who've been very good to us and we can feel good about in general even when you account for stuff like matchup and park factor, but a lot of them have one sort of Semi fatal flock me workload for Brandon Woodruff. It could be matchup for Kevin Gosman It could be repeat matchup for Alcma Noah match of Marcus Strowman match for for Joe Musgrove Location for Julio Arias like all these guys have some sort of major flaw That does make them tough to to get super confident in for DFS for tonight Our job is to decide how big those red flags are and whether or not we can still use these players Despite those drawbacks. That's what I'm trying to do for today. So let's dive on in to get you set for Tuesday night welcome on into the solo shop That's right here. I'm the fan dual podcast network in number fired calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fired calm here to break down Tuesday's 11 game main slate With lock set for 705 for tonight There is only one weather note for today and it is a bummer is that in Chicago at Wigley field For the Cubs and Twins winds are blowing in from left at 15 miles per hour, which means We get a massive downgrade here for both offenses I was super into the Cubs before I saw this forecast had to scratch them out of the stacking section because It ain't great when winds are in at 15 miles per hour at Wigley field. So I still think we can consider them. We'll talk about them and things to watch But it is a massive downgrade for that Cubs offense Still we do say I have some good stacks available for today, including one that I think will fly under the radar But I do like quite a bit. We'll talk about that in pitching in just one second But first the biggest game of week three is the Monday night matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys Fandals making it even bigger by giving new customers 30 to 1 odds on either team to win Fandal is sports betting made simple and they're always looking you or hooking you up with great offers Plus when you win, you'll get paid in as little as 24 hours Download the Fandal sports book today and bet on the most anticipated matchup of the week See for yourself by Fandal is America's number one sports book must be 21 plus and present in Arizona, Colorado Iowa, Illinois, indiana, new jersey, pennsylvania, tennessee, virginia, west virginia New users only $10 first deposit required must wager in designated off offer market max bonus $150 See full terms at sportsbook.fandal.com restrictions apply gambling problem call 100 gambler visit Fandal.com slash rg in indiana 1809 with it In tennessee call the red line at 1809 979 in west virginia visit 100 gambler dot net Or call 180 next step or text next step to five three three four two in arizona Pitching preview for this tuesday main slate brandon woodruff is the highest sourced pitron fandal checking in at $10,200 Followed by kevin gallsman at $9900 Alec minoa is 96 we have marcus drummond at 94 Joe muskrove and julio arias are $9,000 then we have jordan montgomery host They are keedy edward rodriguez and tonius and zatella and marco glanzales as the other guys at $8,000 are higher and again all these guys have some sort of issue And some issues are more concerning than others the one guy i think Whose flaws i can best accept is brandon woodruff. So brandon woodruff will be at the top of my list For today, and i'm doing this knowing woodruff is not going to go longer than six I can say that with almost certainty. He will not go longer than six. It is a big red flag I just don't feel good enough about any alternatives on this slate To replace him at the top of this list It will lower my exposure to woodruff for sure knowing that he's not going to go longer than six, but I still think that he's worth being the top option for today The pitch count for woodruff is muted because the brewers don't have a lot to play for they've already made the playoffs They have been trying to save pitchers for like two months now because they've been so far ahead And they've been doing that with woodruff specifically freddy parolta obviously But like woodruff has been in there too and his pitch counts has some kind sometimes been high He went 104 pitches two starts ago four starts ago Went 101 two starts going actually did start the seventh inning in that game But we've still seen woodruff go exactly six innings in forestry games no more no less No matter what his pitch count was And i'm guessing this is intentional Which is fine. They they should do that the brewers should be doing this in their position But woodruff is so good that while he's out there We can still use him for dfs woodruff had 10 strikeouts in the first start of this sixth sitting stretch He had eight in the other or the next one and that's largely while facing good offenses St. Louis is not that in my eyes. They have a 93 w rc plus against righties with a 154 iso Woodruff has been adding more change ups over his past day. It starts and the strikeout rate in that time is 28% So it is a bummer that woodruff is not on a full leash Like if we had him on a full leash, he'd be a no brainer throughout my list for today But I think the effectiveness I expect him to have while he is out there is enough for me to still feel good about him His fandal point totals in this four start stretch with six innings have been 58 49 24 34 and those some of those were against tougher offenses So I do think that woodruff deserves to be at the top of our list Despite the fact I can't expect him to go longer than six innings six is fine if he gets that quality start bonus sick. Let's go but I think that I I still think he's number one For today gosman. I don't like the matchup on the road facing a low strikeout team Minoa facing the rays for second consecutive start stroman facing the red socks Musgrove facing the giants a re-asset course field I think that means that our second and third pitchers will be guys Who are more flawed as pitchers but are in better situations? The number two pitcher for me as a result of everything is at water rodriguez I always tend to be higher on rodriguez than others and that that's fine And especially fine because it's been getting better reason He's had some good starts recently that it made me feel better about being high on him personally Rodriguez has started to increase his forcing fastball usage over his past nine starts This solid pitch if you look at baseball savante that pitch has a whiff rate of 32 percent Which is I believe the highest of all of his pitches his ex woba against that is 302 so No objections here if you want to sell that pitch go for it I think that's a a good alteration And it should be no surprise that rodriguez is doing well with that pitch in those nine starts He has a 3.92 skill interactive era with a 26 strikeout rate And those peripherals aren't a surprise because he's had good peripherals all year Which is why I've been on him the results are kind of at times following suit now It's not consistent, but you know, there's some good starts in there across those nine starts He's let up zero or one earned runs four times He let up two and another so that's more than half his starts and which is encouraging His overall era in the stretch is 4.5 though because the bluffs have still been there The floor is not good. He is not consistent, but he has a ceiling He had 10 strikeouts in one of those games. He had eight strikeouts and two others He's facing the Mets tonight. They have a 101 WRC plus against lefties and do add a DH tonight because it's in boston But their ISO is 150 36 fly ball rate. Their strikeout rate is 24 So I know rodriguez can be frustrating I have been frustrated with him too potentially more so than others because he's lost me money at times But the underlying numbers are there and he has a ceiling the results have shown not just peripherals The results have shown he has a ceiling and I will take that on a slate with I would say a decent amount of uncertainty at pitcher. So woodruff is number one Rodriguez number two And I think that that that we can feel good about that despite the fact that he is an imperfect pitcher for sure The third pitcher is I would say pretty similar to rodriguez. That's jordan montgomery another guy in the 8 000 range The reason they're similar is because neither guy is super efficient with their pitches Which means they don't typically go deep in games despite having decent pitch counts And it's super annoying when you're watching them like I don't want to watch these guys pitch because they bother me if I'm using them But the path to a good game for montgomery here is pretty clear. He's facing the rangers They're just not a good team against lefties. They have a 78 w RC plus a 121 iso I know nester court this last night didn't finish well, but he didn't start off pretty hot And faulted later on and that's the concern with montgomery too. That's not something that's just like we should just gloss over That is a concern with him as well Because he was similar last week against the orioles came out of the gate Smoking hot racked up 12 strikeouts But he didn't finish six innings despite throwing 99 pitches could be because of the strikeouts You know strikeouts do drive a pitch count, but what helps here is that the matchup is much better from montgomery than what he had last week I respect the orioles. They're kind of feisty against lefties The rangers not as much so montgomery Could get the strikeouts like he did last week and he's less likely to stumble late as he did in that other game I think that's enough to make him the number three option of the night behind woodruff and rodriguez I am willing to use kevin gosman again. I'm just worried about a repeat matchup on the road against a low strikeout team That's not a great formula for gfs. So I'm okay putting behind these guys Does it worry me? Yes, because gosman's a good pitcher, but just tell spot on the road repeat matchup Low strikeout team. Those are factors that do Scare me away a little bit when it comes to gosman. So for me, it is woodruff one rodriguez to montgomery Number three. I'll talk about alexman. Noah in thanks to watch. First of all, let's talk about some stacks and I think that Although pitching doesn't have like a no-brainer option Stacking does and I hope you did not get sick of stacking the fillies last week the times we use them because They are the top option tonight. I think that is very clear I like them more here than I did in any of those games last week The vision chris ellis ellis Has made four starts and he got fully stretched out and the peripherals in that time Are really rough He ranks lowest on the slate in skill interactive era strikeout rates walk rate hard hit rate and fly ball Right and those are the only five numbers that I log on my sheet for each guy. That's not a great sign His era is 2.39 But his expected era baseball savon is 5.43 and that includes the time before he was fully stretched out We expected this initially because when you look at ellison numbers in triple a they were not elites He had a 6.32 era in the minors wasn't a big round ball guy Didn't get that many whiffs So I think ellison deserves kudos for the results like it takes some skill to navigate your way around Some rough peripherals when you're facing the yankees and the blue jays in this four star sample He got around that kudos to him for getting his way out of trouble But peripherals just they just don't give me a much cause to think that will continue I think we're going to see some pretty massive regression here And I think that we should stack the fillies and see if their regression comes in a bunch for tonight We talked about the fillies a bunch recently with time of harper harrera Gregorius and miller I think those guys are still the staples for tonight especially because the The non-harper lefties do save you a lot of salary and can let you go nuts with your second stack for tonight We haven't talked as much about gene seguro or jt riamuto riamuto Hasn't been hitting the ball as hard recently as he was earlier on this season seguro The power seems to have been on the rise a bit He had a double dong back on saturday no steals recently So I think if we're looking at these two righties, I would rank riamuto higher by a bit over seguro But he can sweat some bags the long-term power is better for riamuto If I need to fill one of seguro's eight positions that he's eligible for basically i'm fine plugging him in But I think I would say riamuto is slightly above seguro among the non-lefties But I think if we're ranking out the stacking options for today, I think before lefties deserve to be above them freddy galvis also in play if he plays once again I don't like guys batting eighth in the national league park But I'm still willing to go there if I really need to save some salary So the fillies to me number one buy a wide margin in terms of stacking for today That's the obvious one the less obvious one and one that I think may go a bit overlooked And potentially for good reason is the blue jays I think we have leeway to use them from a sour perspective for today And I don't think anyone's going to use them from a a roster a perspective Maybe maybe they shouldn't but like I think it's worth a shot for today They're facing drew rasmussen rasmussen rasmussen has had awesome results all year long I've just seen some things under the hood that could lead to some issues here And I kind of want to stack the jays in the spot where they're unlikely to be popular Rasmussen has made six longer outings for the rays his errae in those is 1.33 That does include a start against toronto last week where he allowed no runs on just two hits Over five innings his errae is 3.00 for the full season two. So good results in the sample is not a surprise It's not new he's pitching well, but there are two issues with the peripherals for Rasmussen in his more recent sample when he's been stretched out The first one is that he's letting up a lot of balls and play his strikeout rate is 18% with a 5 walk rate Which means he's letting up a ball and play 77 percent of the time And 51 percent of those balls and play happened hard hit that is his second highest mark on the site behind just ellis He is getting some ground balls rasmussen is but the blue jays did lofted a bit last week the ground ball right there was 39 The hard hit rate for them was 62 They just didn't turn it into hits. They actually had as many barrels in that game as it did base hits I'm kind of wondering how long this will last for rasmussen It might stick because some guys just are better than the peripherals say and rasmussen could be that guy But i'm not sure if that would be the case So if you go to the number fire heat map pull up the implied totals for each team You'll see the jays are under four today This is not a spot where you want to stack the jays if you're going based on what bookmakers are saying But I am down to give them a swipe and and see what happens I think the jays are going to be overlooked here on a an 11 game slate And I think that they could be interesting So it might fail if you're a A risk averse person the jay the ray the jays the ray jays the jays may not be your flavor for today, but I'm there. I will be stacking in for tournaments to see what happens not a cash gameplay But I do like them for tournaments that does mean um We should we have to kind of dig into rasmussen's platoon splits and see what he does versus righties and lefties Because most of the guys we want on the jays are righties. They're about even though righties and lefties are The only guy not as into today is jorge springer He's not been hitting the ball super hard since he had those couple days off for his knee injury So I will still use springer like because I'm going to stack this team enough I will just put springer a bit lower on the priority list within the stack in terms of grading him relative to semian bachette taos car all those guys The secondary option behind vlad I think that I'll put springer a bit lower on the list still using him putting a bit lower on the list to account for the fact that Things haven't been as hot recently The third stack for me is the dodgers. They're a course field. So I potentially should like them more But I think that Antonio since the tail is a good pitcher and I want to give him that respect Since the tail is a vet too. So he knows that a pitch course field his e r a there is 3.89 Which is actually better than it is on the road In the five home starts that since the tail has made since he increases forcing fastball usage He's led up 2 4 2 and 3 or runs So he's pitching well. That's why the dodgers are not higher on this list The reason we can still stack them is that since the tail isn't fully a guy we need to avoid He does let up a bunch of balls in play. He in those 11 starts having it has an 18% strikeout rate With a 4 walk rate 44 of those balls in play have been hard hit He just tends to keep them on the ground for the most parts He didn't do that as much against the dodgers though back on august 29th When they last faced about a month ago In that game the Dodgers had a 35 fly ball rate. That is one of the higher marks since the tail has allowed in this stretch They didn't score in seven innings. So obviously since the tail had their number But they weren't totally off there. They were getting some loft there. They weren't terrible I think that's still interesting and now they get in that course field I am not saying the Dodgers will crush him here because he's a good pitcher I just think that there are enough signs pointing to a Dodger stack where we can do it and still feel fine Despite the fact we regard since the tail is being good pitchers. So I do think that the Dodgers are A team that I'm willing to stack for today despite the fact that I do respect since the tail Maybe ranking them third means I'll be lower on them the consensus, but that's fine I'm okay with that because I do respect him a lot I will put them there see where I rank out rather than others But I think that's where they belong Honestly like this it also does help that you know with the pitching sourced today We should be able to get to them pretty often if cody velger can't go again We could get Gavin Lux back out there at $3,100 not the world's best hitter But he's good enough for Coors chris taylor sourced $3,500 That's low enough for me to like him as well. I don't typically get there against right. He's for taylor But more power recently He's at Coors $3,500. I think that the Dodgers overall are a quality stacked Even if they don't check every single box for tonight Let's move now to things to watch talk about manoa. I I don't think I'll get there personally Despite the fact he was outstanding against his very team the same team last week He had 10 strikeouts and that could be hypocritical because I was down to use robby ray last night in a repeat matchup But manoa not as big of a strikeout guy as ray is He wasn't as elite in that first matchup as ray was and we saw the downsides of that with robby ray last night So not a one-to-one comp between ray and manoa But I think that given everything combined we had the wiggle room to pass over manoa here And see how he handles repeat matchup and buy back into him later on I do like what he's been doing recently Would just rather have it against a team not as powerful as the rays are As mentioned before I was going to stack the cubs tonight, but the wind scared me off They're facing griffon jacks. He is a big fly ball guy. I want to use the top five batters in this order They just get downgraded a lot because of the wind if we get the all clear on the wind like if it winds up being a Hallucination where the wind actually wasn't as bad as I thought it was going to be Then I'd put the cubs probably number two above the jays and above the Dodgers as well behind the fillies, but for now they're more of another to consider You could still potentially squeeze something out here, but they do get a pretty big downgrade Given the wind for today Finally, if you do need more value and we don't get the all clear on the cubs I think the brewers are in play once against night. They're facing jake woodford for real this time I wanted to stack against them in this spot last night, but I wanted to be in john lester instead So they're back on the menu for value. We can go to willy adamez. It just came out the il last night Omar navayez dan voglebach. They're all good values here Luis or eos may not play with adamez being back, but if he does play I'd be there for sure I think that a reos is a really solid option. So I think overall The brewers very in play for for value But I prefer the fillies over them if you're looking strictly for some salary savers for tonight speaking to the fillies Let's go to our dinger calls for this Tuesday slate Both them are on that very same team because again Ellis lets up a lot of fly ball is a lot of hard contact So the boring call given it's a fillies you could probably guess Shocker, it's price harper price harper my first home run pick for today Number two is brad miller, you know, I don't I don't want to over complicate things I think that they are in the best spot for hitting them runs for tonight Both those guys have some power basin guy lets up a lot of fly balls in hard contact So home run calls for today are brice harper and brad miller That is all that we have here for today on the solo shop back once again Later on today to talk more base spot for 30 on the fan dual youtube twitch facebook and twitter pages first though We have our waiver wire q&a with myself and jj zack arison breaking down the top waiver ads for your season long leagues heading into week number three Check that out by subscribing to the vandal youtube twitch facebook and twitter pages swing by 4 p.m For that and stick around for mlb at 4 30 brad and gaduah is going to talk about pga today for the heat check fantasy podcast I'll be back on that once baseball season is done Brandon will have that. I have you covered. I think they're doing something for the rider For the rider cup but not totally sure I think they are either way check that out if it does go up just by subscribing to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed our Week two nfl bfs recap podcast is already up Breaking down the big takeaways from this past week talking quarterback injuries talking Receivers with good role changes talking say qualm barkley for week three Check that out by searching for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast And while you're there leave us a rating and review as well If you've got more questions for me. I am on twitter at gymsonus j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you tonight. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow This has been the solo shot right here on the fan dual podcast network