 So, welcome to the CMC Markets webinar with myself, market analyst David Madden. Today's date is Monday, the 7th of August and the time has just gone 15.15, and as with every one of our webinars, we always have to leave the risk warnings up on the screen for compliance purposes before we actually proceed with the actual webinar itself. So I'll just leave that right there and you can have a look at this, have a read of it yourself. It's very satisfactory and quite straightforward. And that right there is going to be the last slide. And there we go. Thank you for your patience. I'm going to actually now proceed with the webinar actually itself. So basically what we've seen over the morning session, it's been a relatively quiet session. A positive move overnight over in Asia, and it's been a bit of a mixed bag here in Europe. The FTSE is doing a bit better than its continental counterparts, it's holding up better than the general market certainly because of the upward move we've seen in the mining companies. Portionally speaking, the FTSE has got a much higher percentage of natural resource and mining companies in comparison with other European heavy markets, such as the DAX and the AIOX and the FTSE and Mave over in Italy. So the strength in the R&R market in China overnight, which is brought about by low inventories of steel and also coincidentally high demand for steel, pushes the price of R&R in China overnight. And therefore we've seen mining companies like Rio Tinto, BTSE, Glencore, and on top of that, Anglo-American do quite well. So we've seen the FTSE have a bit of a better position this morning in comparison with what would pop them to us going on over in continental Europe. Adding to that, it's by and large that the gains that equity markets in Europe have made on Friday afternoon on the back of the strong non-farm payroll figures from the United States and also the weakness of both the pound and the euro because we answered a positive upward move in the other starter. So the good news is most of the gains that were made back in particularly the last few hours of Friday's trading has managed to be hanging on to in Europe today, even though some markets like Germany had managed to kind of hand a small bit of the losses, so a small bit of the gains back, but nonetheless, it's still looking relatively well. What's the lookout for in terms of big events to keep an eye on this week? As always, I'll show you on a website where we can get the news analysis section. So if you go to our homepage, under news analysis, these are all articles that are posted from around the world. Under news analysis, then click on the topic, look to the weekly outlook, bring us up here, and we can have a glance now of what are the key major events, corporate events, and also economic events to keep an eye on throughout the actual week. So tomorrow, we'll be updating from first half figures from intercontinental hotels. We also tomorrow, we have the second quarter numbers from Disney. Tomorrow and Wednesday, we have data coming out of China. We have both trade figures and also CPI numbers coming out of China on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. On Thursday, we have an update from Sydney World. On Friday, sorry, jumping the gun there, on Thursday, we also have the second quarter update from SNAP, bearing in mind that that actual article is actually going to be on the website itself. So in the area where it just came from, to find this particular article on the news analysis section, my colleague Michael Houston did an update on SNAP, and that can be found on that page. And then on Friday, we have CPI numbers, and we're also going to be looking out for the big ones to keep an eye on are going to be the ones from the United States of America. We do have a raft of companies reporting largely in the US over the next few days, but to be perfectly honest, there isn't a whole lot of kind of major ones in terms of what's our popular with our clients. I've already mentioned that we have an update from the second half figures from Internet continental hotels on Tuesday. We also have an update on Tuesday from TripAdvisor, TP, ICAP. We also have an update from Stanford Life. We have an update from Wayfair. On Wednesday, we have an update from Legal and General. On Thursday, we have an update from Sydney World News Corp and Prudential. The Prudential have their second half figures out. It's quite a long list, but to be perfectly honest, it turns out what's most popular with our client base, there isn't a whole lot of major ones in there, to be perfectly honest. Looking at the actual corporate, the economic calendar in a bit more detail, we have our own economic calendar on our website, and it can be found going clicking under market pulse, fourth option down, market calendar. It's very quick to go through the major economic events of the week of the next four trading sessions. So turning our attention to tomorrow. As I mentioned, we've traded figures from China on tomorrow, Tuesday. We also have CPI numbers, as I mentioned a moment ago, on Wednesday in China. Housing starts out of Canada on Wednesday. And as we do every single Wednesday, the energy information agency, the oil and inventory numbers coming out at half 3 p.m. On Thursday, we have money and lending numbers coming out of China overnight. In the morning time, we have UK time. We have manufacturing production, industrial production out of the UK. And we also have, as we do every third of the initial jobless claims out of the United States. Bear in mind the set of numbers that we saw from America last Friday in terms of both the non-farm payrolls giving better expected. And the previous month's numbers were quite higher. Unemployment tick lower, wages and average earnings on a monthly basis increase. Average earnings on a yearly basis remain steady. Overall, it's a very good report to keep an eye out for Thursdays. Initial jobless claims from the United States. On Friday morning, we have German CPI. We also have Spanish CPI, Italian CPI. And then we also probably the most important one of the lot to watch out for, American CPI out at half 1. So the usual structure of our webinar, we've talked about the events that happened over the weekend, the big events to watch out for during the week. When I run through the major markets and talk about the levels you should be keeping an eye out on. So taking a look at the Foxy 100. Interestingly enough, the UK 100 was quite range bound for a while there. It was sort of in around the 3,000, 7,300 mark up to around 7,450 yards for quite some time. Now we seem to kind of pushed beyond that. So we've now traded north of the resistance here at 7,000 which comes into play at 7,518. So that is now acting as support. All the resistance pick up new support. And it's also being complimented by an increase in positive momentum on top of that. So I can see after several weeks of trading within about a 150 to a point range, we finally kind of broken out of that. So we're not the highest level. I've not seen since mid-June on the Foxy 100. Momentum is looking positive. So the momentum is clearly with the bulls should be should be hold above this level here at 7,518, what we can expect is to keep an eye out to the upside for the resistance at 7,561. And then should we go beyond that, we will then be looking towards the all-time high which is just shy of the 6,000 mark. Many moves lower, we see in the Foxy 100 could get support from this price here of 7,485. And that would be looking towards 7,460 and then back towards effectively moving average at 7,445. We're looking now at the Germany 30, the DAX. We can see that the DAX and to be fair, it's a quite common thing that the Eurozone equity markets aren't as in a stronger shape as the Foxy 100. And we can see what I mean here that obviously the big picture has been very much to the upside, so the big picture trend is very much upward looking. But we have seen a pullback here. We have seen a creation of a lower low and also a lower high. And we look like we're kind of moving back up higher again, but is that going to be a case of shaking off the downward trend that has been in since the middle of May or is this just going to be another leg lower? So keep an eye on that the momentum as you're moving lower all along here, the momentum is in red, it's negative and we can swung back around the positive territory in momentum. So we could see at least in the next few days, next week or so, we could see a move back higher. Where that move back higher is going to be a continuation of the downward trend that we've been in. As you can see, a lower high and lower lows along here or where it's actually going to actually just be, this was the correction and a resumption of the wider positive trend. But levels you should be watching out for. Looking to the upside, we've looked immediately towards the one-day moving average at 12,446. As I've looked it towards at 12,500 mark and then beyond that, the resistance here at 12,576. This is where we could potentially be looking towards in the next number of days or next week or so. And if you do get to that level, could be an opportunity to, we have seen selling of the rallies in the last couple of months. So we could see some selling pressure come in should be pushed on higher from these levels. If the market does turn over on itself and it does resume a kind of short to kind of medium term downward trend that it's been in, we've been looking towards the support at 12,095. And then below that, we've been looking towards the April low of 11,941. Turning our attention on what's been going on in America and quite frankly, the Dow Jones has just been absolutely booming it the last month, but even like the last 10 days in particular, it would appear that the Dow Jones is very much on a very clear and bullish winning streak. As you can see here, positive momentum is still very much strong. It appears to be plateauing a bit. So it could be a sign that there's no kind of increase in momentum or rate at which the Dow is increasing. But nonetheless, the Dow is an exceptionally strong market. And it could prove to be very costly if you try and call the top. But if you do see any pullbacks, I could find the opportunity to kind of buy into the market and seeing as if there's so much upward momentum in the Dow Jones in the US 30. If we do see any moves lower as you give back a small bit of ground in the US 30 in the Dow Jones, we could see some support not too far away from it at the moment at 22,100. And then below that again at 22,000, the number itself. But obviously, we've been creating a succession of higher highs and higher lows. It's in a very clear upward trend. The big picture for the Dow is to the upside. So bulls, we've been looking towards 22,000, 200, 20,000, 300, 400, and so on and so forth. The Dow has been the kind of a stand-up performer of say global indices in the last couple of weeks. We have seen quite a decent run on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, which is coming up now in a second. But it's been impressive, but just not as impressive as you've seen in the actual Dow itself. That was the wrong chart, I do apologize. What we can see here is straight away, the trend is clearly to the upside. Higher highs, higher lows, moving along nicely. What's a bit concerning is that we're seeing here is the market is kind of registering higher highs in new record all-time highs. In the end of July, early August. But it's a bit concerning though, that we just haven't really kind of managed to kind of really kind of push beyond it. We've kind of plateaued a smaller. We haven't really given much ground back, but we kind of plateaued. And as long as you can reflect it here in the momentum. As you can see in other, in other spells, the market's been pushing higher. Positive momentum is on the increase. We saw a cooling off in positive momentum. We probably saw the price come back to create a higher low before the next move higher again. So we could be looking at a scenario of a, of a bit of a respectable retracement in the S&P 500 in before we potentially have another move higher. So waiting for a kind of pullback and buying the dips has been the kind of popular strategy on the US indices over the last number of months. I should be seeing a pullback in the S&P 500. We could be looking towards regions of 2,460, 2,450, and 2,440 itself. And then of course to the upside, we'd be looking towards 2,490 and 2,500 itself. It depends how much kind of risk you want to take on because we may not even see a pullback to these levels, but at the same time, if you enter a trade too soon, if you're to buy the market now, we could go offside for a couple of days or a week or so before the overall market continues, potentially continues, it's wider upward trends. It depends how much kind of risk you want to take on. If you wait for a market to pullback and it doesn't, you've missed the upward move, but at the same time, if you wait for a pullback, seeing as the indicators are pointing, we could see a bit of a pullback. Obviously, you want to be getting into a trade at the best price possible. So that's what's been going on in the S&P 500. Taking a look now at what's going on in the Nasdaq 100, not too dissimilar. I keep doing that, I keep clicking on the wrong chart and that's like 100 here. As we can see, then that's like 100, not too dissimilar to what we've seen in the S&P 500. Market's going on to get record highs in late July, but since then, we've sort of hung around in a bit of consolidation. And while that has been going on, notice this very powerful upward move here. We saw from early July to late July was mimicked by a swing from negative momentum on the pullback, pushing higher, creating a new all-time high, but at the same time, you're creating a new all-time high on declining momentum. And now we're in negative momentum. So it could be an indication that we could see a bit of a pullback or a bit of a drift lower in the Nasdaq 100 before we actually potentially going to potentially continue on with the kind of wider upward trend that's been in place for some time now. So levels to watch out for on the Nasdaq 100, we could see a pullback too. This would be the first price to watch out for, 5,848, and then below that, at the 50-day moving average at 5,800 itself. And then of course, bulls will be looking towards the upside target of 6,000 and beyond. Having a look now at what's going on in the commodities market, gold, I can tell you right now, that's about $15 between the back end of last week, well, from Wednesday and Thursday until now really. Given that goal as I kind of quite a decent run throughout over the last, that we quite frankly passed a month, pulled off the lows here at 12.05 effectively when straight up in the classic upward trend provided the market would push higher, create a high pullback, the new high, new higher high, higher low. But now we're at a bit of a turning point here. This sharp downward move here came after a few days of indecision and it came and the sell-off was triggered by the strong non-farm payroll figures we saw in the United States. The traders are still very much divided over whether we're gonna see a rate rise from the Federal Reserve in December or not. The last time I checked it was still only 42% of a probability, so quite low, but it was nonetheless, it was enough to actually spook gold traders and encourage those who've been long for the last month to take some cash out of the market. We've been consolidating it around 12.55, 12.60 throughout the day trading sessions and they're quite a boring Friday afternoon and Monday morning with gold. Should we resume the upward trend, we've been looking towards 12.70 and then beyond that towards 12.80 and then of course we've been looking towards the June high of 12.96. But if you do see the price of gold look to kind of turn lower, we'll then be looking towards back towards 12.50, 12 and then 12, this price here I've been kind of looking to keep an eye out for back towards 12.50 and then back in the low here at 12.35 and then we're looking back towards 12.15 and then 12.05 on gold. Keep turning our attention all, stick with the commodities theme over to the oil market and in relation to oil has had bearing in mind we do have today's the first day of the OPEC meeting which is taking place in Abu Dhabi and in relation to the reason behind the OPEC meeting is because the extension to the production freeze that was announced in late May didn't really do a whole lot of good for the price of the actual, for the price of the price of oil. We did not really a whole lot of compliance with the production freeze and in some cases we saw exports and some OPEC members actually increase since that production freeze was announced in late May. Yes, I will chat about the dollar index after I, I'll be coming out to currency pairs next but I'll talk about the dollar index in a few minutes. I was just talking about the OPEC meeting. The OPEC meeting today is day one of the two day OPEC meeting and essentially it's about getting OPEC members to come together and actually chat about actually getting all of themselves to actually comply with the production freeze. The market, the OPEC did a good job in spending many months talking about extending the production freeze which they eventually did but as soon as that happened the price of oil is sold off because it's already priced in and that was this move that we saw here in late May. So as you can see, it sounds like the ideal OPEC talk about extending the, actually announce a production extension to the production freeze. I want to do create a massive sell off and actually the lowest level we've seen since kind of 2016 in the price of oil. The market has bounced back. We have seen, we have heard updates from people like Saudi Arabia who pledged to trim oil exports. We've heard from Nigeria who are now voluntarily complying with the OPEC-wide production freeze. There's even talk of trying to get Libya to agree to it. And this is just really about kind of OPEC getting all its members in line and aiming to actually be serious and actually comply and adhere to the actual production freeze and try and push the price of oil up higher. It's obviously in interest. The problem with OPEC is that in recent weeks we've seen OPEC members care more about their own sales rather than the overall organization. But taking a look at the price, it's been in a very clear kind of upward trend for the last about six weeks. We're still managing to hold above the Trinity Moving Average for, this is Brent, all we're looking at here. So any kind of pullbacks could find support at the Trinity Moving Average of $51.70. To the upside, we've been looking towards $53. And then beyond that, we've been looking towards the, this, this, the May High of $54.57. And beyond that, to look at towards the April High at $56.53. It's going to be a very similar chart now for WTI. So I'll just bring that up now in a second. Very similar data, pretty much trading almost not too far away from right on the Trinity Moving Average. The current price of all is WTI is $848.94. Which is pretty much right on the Trinity Moving Average. So should we manage to hang up, hang up both the Trinity Moving Average on that? We'll also be looking towards $50 to the upside. And then beyond that, we'll then be looking towards the May High, which comes into place at $51.66. And then the April High, which comes into play at $53.56. Any kind of moves lower, we've been looking to get support in around the kind of $48.23. And then the one-day moving average at $47.78. And then back towards $47.18. Notice how we are seeing a bit of a cooling off in the positive momentum, still in positive territory. We're still pretty much trading on the Trinity Moving Average. So I think the near-term outlook could be still on the bullish side of things. But obviously, traders are going to be quite wary of what's going on with OPEC. I'll run through some of the major currency pairs. First of all, most of them are going to have the dollar some way involved in it. And then I'll talk about the dollar index itself. So the Euro, after an exceptionally impressive run, it's had as high as that, constantly creating fresh two-year highs has managed to give some of its crown back. Taking a look at the kind of wider chart here, we can see that it traded north of the 200-week moving average, but it didn't actually manage to close above it. So that in itself is a sign that after a very impressive run, traders are bullish, but by the looks of it, they're not that bullish if the market didn't actually close above the 200-week moving average. 200-week moving average is going to be a big level to watch out for for the Euro dollar. If you do see it close above that price, that's when we'd actually be looking that that's what that would actually give quite a bullish and positive move sentiment to the Euro versus the US dollar if we do close above it. But seeing as we haven't closed above it, it's got an indication that the market's strong but not that strong. And if you know, dare I say, we have seen a bit of profit taking well after running into it. And then of course that the better than expected and overall very impressive, very impressive jobless claims report from the United States on the slide. We did see a bit of a push lower here. Levels to watch out for to the upside will be 1-18-30. So you get back above that, we could then put us back on the path towards 1-19. But if you fail to get back above 1-13, we could be heading back towards a kind of this price here of 1-17-28, then back towards 1-17, and then back towards 1-16-16 itself for the Euro versus the US dollar. Turning attention now to cable. It's like what a good run versus the US dollar like the Euro has. But looking at a cable here, as you can see, I could bring an update just gone on Thursday followed by the sell-off that we witnessed on Friday because of the non-farm payrolls. We saw the traders were very quick to kind of cash in their profits because it's had a quite an impressive run the power versus the US dollar. The traders are very quick to cash in their chips. We've seen actually momentum actually swing negative. So we could actually be looking to have if we could be looking for a bit of a downward move in the pound to stay in place for a number of days yet. So looking towards the downside on the pound. The next big number to watch out for is going to be 1-30 itself. And then it should be moved south of 1-30. We'll be looking towards the 50 moving average at 1-29-25. And then under that, we'll be looking towards the one day moving average at 1-28-30. But to be fair, this is what we've seen in the last few days of a sell-off. The picture, the big picture of the last three months has been very much to the upside for the pound versus the US dollar. So the wider outlook, even if we do have a retracement of another 100 pips, so there are 150 odd pips from here, the outlook still would still, the upper trend would still remain intact. And then let's watch out for to the upside. We won 31-59. And then of course, the August high, which is created on Thursday, just gone at 1-31-67. Turning our attention now to the Euro versus the British pound Euro starting. It's been a very clear and concise upper trend since April, been constantly kind of pushing higher. The Euro is very much on the move. Buying on the dips has been the very kind of popular strategy that we've seen so far. We're currently trading at 1-30-39. Should we see a pullback towards 1-90 pence, that would be, this would be a potential area for support. And then below that, we'd be looking towards 1-89-23. And then under that, we'd be looking towards 1-80, 1-80, apologize, 1-88-80 below that. But the trend has been very much in the upside in the Euro versus the British pound. So we will be looking towards 91 and 92 to the upside. Take a look now at the dollar versus the Japanese yen, the dollar yen trade. The dollar yen, as we can see here, it's been very, the last number of, last month or so has been very much in a very clear downward trend. Both seeing as momentum is starting, negative momentum is starting to dissipate. It could be a sign that it could be looking for actually a bit of a push higher in the dollar versus the yen. And the potential move higher in the dollar versus the yen need to keep an eye on what's called intermarket analysis. So even if you're trading the dollar yen, you've got to keep an eye on what the euro is doing versus the US dollar. You've got to keep an eye on what the pound is doing versus the US dollar. And the common theme in the two, both the euro and the euro's dollar and the pound dollar have both been in decline. So it could be an indication that we could be seeing a bit of a resurgence in the US dollar, given that everyone has been exceptionally bearish on the greenback recently and seeing us that we've had better expected job, non-farm payroll numbers just gone. We also have inflation data out from the US at the very end of this week. So the trend recently has been very much to the downside, but we are seeing a decline in the negative momentum. So we could see a push higher in the US dollar versus the Japanese yen. We could see a move higher towards one or two moving average and the 50 moving average are very much on top of each other in around the 111 40 to kind of 54 region. I should be moved beyond that. Trainers will then be looking towards the two-day moving average at 112.35. And in order to do that again, we'd be looking towards 113. But if you do dip lower in the dollar yen, support could be found at 110.62, 110.30 and then 109.84. In relation to the US dollar index itself, 57, 58% of the US dollar index is the Euro dollar, is the Euro accounts for over half the dollar index. So if you wanna know what's going on the dollar index, you gotta keep an eye on what's going on in the Euro dollar. And as I mentioned, the Euro dollar traded north of its two-day moving average in around the kind of 118 region. Traded high as 119, but didn't actually manage to hold onto it. And we have retreated quite a bit in the same. So if it's a sign, as it mentioned a few minutes ago, that the Euro dollar bills weren't bullish enough to get it to actually close north of the two-day moving average, it could be an indication that that is gonna act as a resistance. And it could even be a case of, we could see a bit of a wider retracement in the Euro versus the US dollar. And should that be the case, seeing as Euro dollar makes up over half, approximately 58% of the dollar index component, that could be a sign that we could be looking for a push higher in the dollar index itself. So looking at this chart here, it's an hourly chart. We can see here that the mood's higher. It's of the dollar index pushed above the 200-hour moving average, which now has come back to act on a support. And the two-hour moving average comes to play at 93.21 for the dollar index, where it's not acting as support, and should we continue to hang onto that support down on Fridays high at 93.64 is gonna be the immediate upside target. Then we're looking for this price here, which comes into play at just north 94 itself, 94.11. And then beyond that, we're looking towards 94.27 for the US dollar basket or the US dollar index. And the drippy lower, should we even move south of the 100-hour moving average at 93.21, we then could see a drift back towards the 93.02 region, with this price here. Now I'm aware that we've, I've been speaking to you for just over half an hour. Are there any other markets that you'd like me to cover before I wrap this up? Feel free to talk, to mention any markets. The Germany 30, I mentioned that the Germany 30 at the beginning of the webinar, but I'll have to go over it again. Just go to it now. The Germany 30, I was saying was in, it's been a downward trend since the middle of June. So the big picture of the Germany 30 has been very much to the upside. It's a very powerful value that we've seen here from say November onwards, it's been very much pushing higher. But as we have seen, we've seen a decent enough correction in the Germany 30 in the DAX. Since creating an all-time high in June, it's going on to create a lower low, a lower high, and another lower low. So we're wondering, is this just a correction in the kind of big, overall big trend, or could this be the beginning of a few more kind of lower lows and lower highs, and actually looking at something of a reversal, or quite a deep retracement. So for the time being, we can see that it's been supported by 12,095 because we're currently trading around 12,230. We're kind of knocking on this resistance here at 12,343. Should we move north of that, we've been looking towards the water day moving average, because it previously acted as support here, so it's now going to become resistance. And it's the next upside target to watch out for, should we move north of 12,343, will then be 12,446. We're then looking towards the 12,500 region, and then north of that, we've been looking towards this resistance here in the middle of July at 12,678. Moves higher in the DAX could potentially bring about a new wave of selling, seeing as we've created a lower low here, a lower high here, and lower low here. So I'll move higher in the DAX. If we take out 12,678, that could just be a sign that this was only a short-term correction, or we're going to head back towards the recent highs, if we fail to make a considerable, fail to take out that level, that's when we could be looking at a potential, a new leg lower for the Germany 30. Levels of looking to the downside would be the late June, early July, early August lows of 12,095, and then below that at 11,941. So now that we've covered the Germany 30, are there any other markets that you would like me to cover? Nope, you are very, very welcome. Just as a quick reminder, the news analysis that we update from myself here and Michael Houston in London, and also calling it in Canada, and other analysts around the world, don't forget that I've read of those. It's under the news and analysis section. Looking at the topic here, clicking on topic, you can change that to weekly outlook and get the rundown for the week ahead. Obviously you know, if you've managed to find this webinar itself, this is where we can keep an eye on for future webinars. Obviously we do, the Monday charting one is done every single Monday at 12.15. Obviously we have another webinar here, next generation Forex is coming on stream on Wednesday, the 16th of August, keep an eye on for that one. Other updates that myself and the other analysts here at CMC Markets do, can be found on the chart forum, which is right here, and also Insight. So if you click on Market Pulse, second one down is Insight, and the third option down is Chart Forum. It's also feel free and to keep an eye on those, there's other bits of it and news analysis that we do. It's put on the Insights chart forum, it's much more of a short term look at a chart. So feel free to have a look on those because some of the stuff that we cover in our webinar would also be covered within Insight. I would also be covered on the news and data section of the website, and I'll be covered on the chart forum. And from all of us here at CMC Markets, thank you very much for tuning in today and have a good trading week and good luck.