 Good afternoon, ladies and gents. Welcome to this FOMC and, to a lesser extent, Bank of Japan preview webcast webinar, whatever you want to call it first and foremost, I have to put up a risk warning and disclaimer, part for the course for these events. Nothing that you hear in this particular webinar should be construed as trading advice. Essentially what we're trying to do is run the rule over a whole host of potential scenarios, what the Fed is hoping or what the Fed is likely to say, and the potential market reactions to that. So once I've got these risk warnings out of the way, we can get started. So, yeah, basically I think if anyone is expecting anything significant out of the Fed from this April meeting, it's unlikely we're going to see it. We're not going to get a rate rise. We are not going to get a press conference. But what I'd like to talk about is this Bloomberg page here. It's WIRP and it's market expectations for rate rises over the course of the rest of this year. Now, those probabilities and the probabilities that I'm most interested in are the probability of a hike. So in June, the market is assigning around about a 19.6 possibility that the Fed reserve will raise interest rates. April, they're assigning a 0% possibility of a rate hike, a 2% probability of a cut, which I find highly amusing, and a 98% probability that rates will remain unchanged. So that looks like the most probable outcome. In fact, I would argue that it is the only likely outcome. But ultimately, what we're most interested in these numbers here, and in particular the June number, because the June number, a 1 in 5 possibility, less than a 1 in 5 possibility that we could get a rate rise in June, seems a little bit too dovish for my liking. And I think, and Colin probably agrees with me that I think the Federal Reserve may want to move the odds of that up slightly if they really want to keep the prospect of a June rate rise in play. And really, this is all about perception. It's not about whether they will do it. It's not about whether they won't do it. It's what they want the market to think. And at the moment, they want the market to think that June is a live meeting. At the moment, according to that chart, June is not a live meeting. And I think the Federal Reserve, in its statement, may want to readdress that balance ever so slightly. And if they do that, that could prompt a US dollar rally. It probably won't prompt a sustainable US dollar rally. But nonetheless, it will prompt a little bit of a push higher in the dollar and a push lower in the euro, a push lower in the pound, and a push higher in the dollar yen. I don't know whether you want to expand on any of that, Colin. Absolutely. Thank you, Michael. Yes, I do keep track of the Fed as their speakers have been going through, and particularly some of the regional voters and the swing voters. And the Fed's kind of been in three camps, and the dovish camp, the neutral camp, and the hawkish camp. So the dovish camp has kind of been pushing towards delaying rate hikes as long as possible. And the neutral camp includes Fed, Chair Yellen, and most of them that have kind of, well, we'll keep an eye on the data, and basically the Fed wants to keep their options open. And then there's the hawkish camp, who are people like Kansas City's Esther George, who want to raise rates right now. And the ones I've been watching for the most that have been swing voters this year have been Bullard and Rosengren. They're the two more dovish of the regional governors voting this year, and George and Mester are the two more leading to the hawkish side. And Bullard has been going back and forth. When the oil price crashed, he went from hawkish to dovish. As oil came back, he went kind of from dovish back to neutral heading towards hawkish. But both him and Rosengren, who is a dove, have both said to the markets that they think the street's been overly pessimistic about the prospects for a rate rise. They think the street's been overly dovish. And they've been trying through their speeches to nudge people back towards the middle. I think the Fed would prefer to see that June number instead of a 20% more back up towards 50%. And I think the bond market in general has been more dovish. And because if you look at the currency market, has been sitting just below 95%. And my feeling is as we look at this, that when the dollar index was up at 100 was when people were thinking there was four hikes this year. And at 95, people are thinking they did two hikes this year. And if we were to move to zero hikes like the bond market, you'd probably see the U.S. dollar index crash back to 90. So as Michael noted, if you see the Fed kind of steering people still towards two hikes this year, the dollar index might go up a little bit, perhaps peak back above 95 a little bit. And that's probably about it because the currency market is already essentially pricing in still two hikes this year. If you're going to get two hikes, you're looking at June and December. The Fed would want to stay away from the election campaign, particularly since it looks like it's going to be quite a wild one with Trump and Clinton becoming the presumptive nominees. It's going to be a pretty crazy election campaign. I think the Fed's going to want to stay clear of that. If you go in June, it's after the primaries and before the conventions. So if that's the time, that's the ideal time if the Fed's going to do two hikes this year to raise one. Yeah, I think that's right. I think the optimum time is June. Unfortunately for the Fed, I think there's a distinct possibility that the data may move against them and may force their hand a little bit because thus far the data this year hasn't been particularly great, particularly on the manufacturing side, but also I think you'll find on the consumer side. We saw that disappointing Dallas Fed survey yesterday. I think it was yesterday, wasn't it? And some of the respondent comments were, well, let's just say they didn't point to an awful lot of optimism about the U.S. economy. I mean, one of the comments that was made by one of the speakers was something about ISIS, gas, oil, not really much to get excited about. And that's pretty much Gallo's comments. And that doesn't speak to an awful lot of confidence with respect to the manufacturing sector. Furthermore, if we look at durable goods and we look at retail sales, and I'm going to display a little chart of that here, on the right-hand column here, we've got durable goods numbers for the last two to three months. And apart from a decent number in January, we had a horrible number in February and we've had a disappointing number in March. Now these numbers here are excluding transport. Transport's a very volatile volatile. I tend to exclude them. And the total durable goods numbers since January 2015, that's the net decline. So over the course of the last 15 to 16 months, durable goods, which is essentially white goods, big ticket items like big screen TVs, you're talking about potential home improvement, that sort of thing, that's been pretty disappointing. And retail sales, again, over the course of the last three months, minus 0.7, minus 0.3. So Q1 has been very, very disappointing for certainly the US consumer. They've shown that they've got no indication that they want to go out and spend money. And this is despite the fact that fuel prices in particular are well below the levels that we saw a year ago. So I would agree that jobs growth has been very, very good. It's been very, very steady. We haven't seen that much in the way of what I would call significant wage growth, apart from a spike in January, where we had a big jump of 0.5. And ultimately, in answer to your question about whether or not the US economic figures suggest a rate rise is likely, I would just suggest a rate rise is not likely, based on the data that we've seen thus far. But being that as it may, I don't think that will stop the Fed from being a little bit hawkish and talking up the prospect of a rate hike, even if one is not likely, because if they talk up the prospect of a rate hike, they at least have the option of dialing back on that rhetoric. Yes, and I think one of the things we're watching for the US is, for example, if you look at the Dallas Fed, it's awful. And there's no question Dallas region is in a recession. That's the heart of the oil sector in America. And they're just getting crushed. And Richmond was a little better. They fell off. And so the thing with the US is, and I think it's something the Fed's kind of got to manage, is that you've got certainly a major chunk, a major region of the economy is no doubt in recession. And some of the other areas are doing reasonably well. And how do you manage that? And I think there's also a bit of expectations there as well. You'd expect to see a bit of a slowdown in, say, consumer spending or durable goods orders. As the Fed starts raising rates, people get used to just in reaction to the December hike. And then the question is, does this persist? Because normally the Fed starts raising rates. It's a sign that the economy is good. People get over the transition phase. And then things go again. But one thing we've seen with the Fed this year, is they've kind of been muddying the waters. They've been waffling a lot. Because there were four rate hikes, they were going to raise in March, and then they didn't. And so we're getting a lot of really mixed signals from the Fed itself. And I think that's not helping matters. So we're going to do a bit of a chicken or the egg argument here as well with the, is the data slow, meaning that the Fed has to continue to waffle on rates? Or is the data slow because the Fed's been waffling on rates? The answer is probably a bit of both. And so it's a funny when they say they're open to data, and then at the same time they want to do, follow some kind of a program. And that's where I think there's a lot of confusion in the economy and the markets and what have you. And until this kind of settles itself out, we'll probably see more of these kind of back and forth arguments and discussions, because it's kind of, things kind of support both sides. Yeah, I've been asked another question. If the Fed is hawkish, will equity market sentiment improve and overcome a possible downturn? Well, I think the jury is out on that. I don't know whether you've got a view on this, but I think if the Fed is slightly hawkish, I think it'll cap any equity market rally through 2100, certainly on the S&P. You know, we're pretty much close to the all-time highs. Yes, we have broken higher. More broadly, over the past, say, three or four weeks, certainly across the board, certainly the UK, the FTSE 100 has broken higher, the DAX has broken higher. But I think what struck me about these moves higher and the fact that the S&P is now in positive territory for the year is how weak these recoveries have been. Now, there's been an awful lot of chatter in the press. I don't know whether any of you guys have been watching Bloomberg over the course of the past few days, but there's been talk about a Golden Cross on the S&P 500. And those of you who don't know what a Golden Cross is, it's when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average, and it's generally perceived to be a very positive signal. But it's only conceived to be a very positive signal if the market is actually doing something, so if it's reversing something. So in this case, a Golden Cross will be very, very positive at the end of a long-term downtrend. By the opposite token, a death cross where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average, you'd want to take notice of it at the end of an uptrend. So in the context of this particular discussion, and I have covered it in some detail in my weekly video, which can be found at youtube.com.com. We can see here on the S&P 500 that we've seen the 50-day moving average cross above the 200-day moving average. But look what the 200-day moving average is doing. It's pretty flat. And also, we had a similar crossing in the middle of December last year, and we failed. And I think the question that's being asked is, is this another failure, or is this maybe a precursor to a break of the previous highs and for a move higher? Well, ultimately, we don't know. Could you take it a little longer, Michael, to like a one year or a year and a half? Yeah, that's better. I think what's important to note is the context of these, that's good there, of these Golden Crosses, which are, if you look, the S&P's basically been in the sideways trend for the last year and a half. And when we go into sideways trends, the 50-day and the moving average just kind of keep crossing each other back and forth. And so to look at the Golden Cross and the Death Cross for that matter, they lose their relevance when you're in a sideways trend. And that's what Michael's kind of been getting at. Whereas if you looked at the previously in that late 24, early 2015, S&P was trending higher. 50-day was consistently above the 200-day. You had the first Death Cross. And it confirmed a big sell-off. Now what ended up happening was instead of continuing lower into a downtrend, we went into a sideways trend. But still, that was the signal of the trend change that first crossed in, I guess that was about September or so. But these last two are just, they just happened within sideways trends. Yeah, and I think this is the point that I'm really sort of trying to make here. I'm just going to bring this up one second. I'm going to open this in a slightly different format so that we can get a better flavor of it. Okay, so let's blow this up to about 200%. So this is what happened at the end of 2011, beginning of 2012. Now we've got the two moving averages. There's the 50-day crossing the 200-day and it's crossing higher. And this is the end of the downtrend. But what is also happening here is that we bottomed out around just above 1,000, made a slight double bottom there. We made a new peak here. We came back, didn't take out the previous slope. And what we've got here is a triangle, a potential triangle breakout. So we've got the previous downtrend in place. We've got a new uptrend starting to develop and the price action is starting to compress. And it's compressing in a way that ultimately, when it breaks, it will break very sharply in the direction of the breakout. So what we've got here is we've got the market being capped by the 200-day moving average after acting as support, axis resistance, resistance, resistance. We've got the break of the downtrend line and then a few days later, we get the golden cross. So when you get all of those factors all at once or within a few days of each other, all the 50 and the 200 are doing is merely confirming what's happened with respect to your primary indicators, the trend line break, the break above resistance of the 200-day moving average. So ultimately, what I'm saying is, fairly simply, if you're looking for an indication of a trend reversal, just the 50 and the 200 crossing is not enough. You need other confirmatory signals and ultimately, we're not getting them at the moment. And actually, if anything, we are actually getting a potential reversal forming on the daily chart here because what we've got is a potential evening star reversal, potential bearish engulfing day there as well. And that in itself could actually cause this to start to roll over and drift lower back towards the 50-day moving average and this series of lows here. So am I taking any notice of this golden cross? No answer? No. Right, so that's the S&P 500. We've got these series of peaks here. We've got the November peaks here and then we've got the other peaks from last year, early last year, all the way back here. So there's an awful lot of resistance coming in above 2000, 2100. And ultimately, you have to ask yourself the question, what would prompt the S&P 500 to break higher at a time when earnings estimates are continuing to be revised lower and the Fed is going to be very, very reluctant to ease, let alone hike? That's the question I ask myself when I look at these equity markets. And it's a pretty similar... Sorry, are you going to say something? I was just going to say, it's quite interesting when I look at the earnings that have been coming out this quarter because we've had a... And then it also works back into the Fed a bit as well, which is that we're kind of getting a mixed quarter here in that people were really pessimistic heading in and you'll recall the guidance from previous... from last quarter, last time around, was very negative. People were really pessimistic. And this time we have had some... a fair number of positive surprises overall. I don't think things were quite as bad as what they were thinking, but we've had quite a few high-profile misses as well. We had Apple, we've had Boeing, we've had Microsoft, we've had Google, but we've had some positive surprises like DuPont and P&G. So it's a mixed quarter. And I think one of the things we're getting here in earnings was that one of the reasons forecast came down was the higher dollar was hitting U.S. corporate earnings and was impacting those forecasts going forward. The dollar has come down. And so some companies have said, well, the forex impact is easing, our forecasts are improving, whereas other companies haven't gotten there yet. I had figured this quarter would be too soon to see that, so I was shocked that DuPont and others have even done it at all. I thought it would be one of the next two rounds of earnings that we'd start to see more of the benefits of the U.S. dollar retreat. But that circles back to the Fed and the U.S. dollar, which is I don't think the Fed wants to go too aggressive and push the dollar index back up towards 100 because that crushes corporate earnings. At 95 is helping, 90 would probably be a lot better for them. So it's a matter now of do they stay this course of two rate hags which the currency has priced in. I don't think they won't go hawkish beyond that. And then at the same time, if they go dovish, then that could actually help the earnings side. So we'll see what happens. Excuse me, so I think we're in a little bit of the corridor of uncertainty right here. You've got resistance at 95. It looks to be fairly well supported around about 93, but overall I think the bias for the Fed would be for the dollar index to drift a little bit lower but not aggressively lower. And essentially I think why you've seen Euro dollars struggle to really push higher to any great degree. And ultimately if you think that the next move in the dollar is going to be lower rather than higher, then ultimately you've got to think to yourself, how are the Fed going to manage that? And ultimately I think the way they'll manage it at worst is they'll come across as slightly positive which will make the market think that June is still on the table. But ultimately it will cap equity markets to an extent because it'll keep the equity markets off balance because they're not really sure what the Fed's going to do in June. But ultimately it'll also stop markets driving the dollar higher as well. So what does that mean for dolly end? Because we're talking about the Fed at the moment and the likelihood he is will probably get a very nuanced statement with a slight hint at tightening and the hawks will take what they want from it and the doves will take what they want from it and unfortunately never the twain will meet. But ultimately that could cause a bit of a push higher in the dollar but ultimately my view on dolly end is we're going to 106. So the big question then is how do we get there? And now we could get there as a result of what the Bank of Japan do tomorrow. Ultimately I don't think it's really going to be of that much consequence. I think once dolly end decides it wants to go somewhere it goes there irrespective of what the central bank wants it to do or not. The only thing that they can control is the speed at which it gets there. And ultimately I think that's what the Bank of Japan is probably more worried about than anything else at the moment. Certainly what we've seen here would appear to suggest that we're probably going to start settling into a bit of a range but ultimately I still expect dolly end to come back to 106.50. Why? Because that's the 38.2 retracement of this entire up move from the lows at 75 to the highs here. We've broken out on this head and shoulders reverse or potential triple top whatever you want to call it. Our minimum price objective brings us in a 106.68 which also coincides with a 38.2% retracement. So I think and I've been saying this since pretty much two months ago. Once we broke below this level here, 106 was my target. If you go back to the video that I recorded in the middle of February as well as my colleague Jasper, we pretty much agreed the same sort of thing. Once we broke this support level here, 106 is really only a matter of time. Now the big question is how do we get there? We could go all the way back to 112, 113 or 114 but overall whatever you think about helicopter money in Japan, we've already seen the effects of what negative rates did to the end. They didn't send it down, they sent it up. So ultimately it's a question of how effective do you think the Bank of Japan can be by going all in. It's pretty much all in at the moment. The Bank of Japan's pretty much owns 10% of the Japanese stock market and ultimately we haven't seen any evidence of inflation and we haven't seen any evidence whatsoever of a pickup in economic activity which is not surprising considering the recent earthquakes. It's going to take time for anything that the Bank of Japan does to help pick up economic activity and ultimately it's down to that third arrow, Shinzo Abe's third arrow, structural reform. And ultimately in the absence of structural reform, central banks are finding that they're operating at the limits of their ability to control what their currency is doing. And ultimately if the Bank of Japan is up against the Federal Reserve and as Colin said, if investors are pricing in two or three rate rises this year in dolly yen and they only get one, what does that do to the dolly yen? It sends the dollar down because the market's positioned wrongly. He asked if I was Mr. Koroda what would I do? Well I couldn't really do much more than what I'm trying to do now. Ultimately it's up to the politicians. All central bankers can do is try and provide the conditions with which the governments can implement structural reforms. If governments refuse to implement structural reforms and this is just as true for Mr. Koroda as it is for Mr. Draghi. Mr. Draghi is facing the exact same problems. What we could get later tonight or early tomorrow morning is we could get the Bank of Japan announced the potential to basically pay banks to lend money in the same way that Mr. Draghi announced those June TLTROs where basically he said that he would pay banks up to 0.4% to lend money to the real economy. The problem with that is the loan demand there and people will only borrow money if they think there's an even chance that they'll get that money back and more in terms of sales, revenue growth and that sort of thing. We're not seeing that at the moment. The US earning season is disappointing and that is what deters investment. We've seen Apple's results overnight. The stock price now is down around 7% or 8%. Despite the fact that it's still generated $10 billion in profits on revenues of $51 billion, but it's the first lower revenues in 13 years in 51 quarters and ultimately it's all about expectations and $51 billion is not too shabby, but unfortunately this is Apple we're talking about and expectations are a lot higher than that. So let's move on. So basically, at the moment we're struggling around about this 1.11.1.10 level. We could head back towards around about 1.12.1.13. Ultimately I still think the line of lease resistance is for a move lower while we're below this cloud resistance here and this trend line resistance from the peaks that we saw in the middle of February. But ultimately for me the direction of travel is set. The big question is how we get there and unfortunately I can't answer that for you. Similar sort of story for cable. This is something again that I covered in my weekly video. We are currently very overbought on dollar sterling, but what we have seen is a potential head and shoulders reversal unfold. With the neckline through here at 1.44, we've broken above the 100 day moving average at 1.44.5. So potentially on the basis of this, on the evidence of this breakout, we could test this trend line resistance from the august ties here, which currently comes in around about 1.47. But ultimately my target for cable is 1.51 based on measuring this move here from the lows in March to the neckline and then projecting it from the breakout point. This is a classic inverse head and shoulders breakout. I'm being asked, is cable all about Brexit? Yes and no. There is the push-pull effect of what the Fed may or may not do. The pound is actually pulling back because the opinion polls are moving in favour of the remain campaign. But I also think that an awful lot of the very bearish rhetoric was overdone on cable. People talking about 1.30, 1.25. When people start talking in those terms, usually they're talking their book and it usually means it is time to go long. What we've got here is a left shoulder 1.4080, a right shoulder at 1.4050 and a neckline which comes in here. So we could fall all the way back to around about 1.44.5, potentially even back to the 100-day moving average. But ultimately, if this breakout pattern here is right, then we're probably going to see initially 1.47 will come back, potentially head towards 1.49 over the course of the next few days and weeks and potentially even go back to 1.50. Does that necessarily mean that the opinion polls are not going to introduce volatility on the way? Of course they will. We could well see a big sell-off as we get into June and the vote gets closer. So by no means is this a done deal that we're going to go higher, but certainly on the basis of the price action, then you have to have a target, you have to have a view. My view is that we're more likely to see 1.50 than we are 1.40. Yeah, it certainly does look like it's recovering here. That's a beautiful pattern. In fact, where you have the falling neckline, if you draw it straight across as the horizontal neckline, that's pretty much where we are right now. So we're retesting that peak of early February and if we start going through that and that blue trend line you've got on there, that looks pretty good. And that initial one also where you've got the Fibonacci level and the 200-day moving average also looks quite intriguing as a cluster point where you could see an initial move on a breakout. And Michael's right. I mean, we've had a lot of volatility, but I think the Brexit fears were built in trading into the sterling was getting really overdone back in February. And we're seeing that as we go through that this right shoulder has been carved out amongst still what we would have think would have been more bearish talk. And we had every one of these downward pulses was related to something, whether it was polls favoring the leave campaign or some of the things that Boris Johnson had done with joining the thing and some of the turmoil in the cabinet and stuff like that. And each of these pulses down though through March and April have not been able to push it lower and that's telling you that the limits of pessimism and cable have probably been reached and now we're seeing it working out. But again, June is probably going to be all over the place just like we saw with the Scottish vote and to a lesser extent the election last year. And if you look at the slow stochastic, the oscillator is looking a little bit overboard. So at these sorts of levels, I would suggest the air is a little bit thin and we could drift back down towards the moving averages over the course of maybe the next couple of days. But that's not to say that I don't think we could go higher. The big question is how we get there. And at the moment, given where we are, certainly in relation to this year, we're probably at the higher levels of where I thought we'd be say two or three weeks ago. So we'll just have to wait and see how this plays out. And it's a similar sort of story on Eurodollar as well. I think the balance of probabilities on Eurodollar suggests we go higher, not lower. But ultimately, we're in a range and we've been in a range for quite some time as borne out by this one-year chart here. And we can see where the clusters of resistance are because apart from the occasional spike through 1.15 in August last year and February last year, we've pretty much been trading sideways as well on Eurodollar in the same way that we've been trading sideways in the S&P, which is quite interesting. If we break higher in Eurodollar, we could see the S&P trade lower because if you turn that chart upside down, you might as well be looking at the S&P. That is, by the way, a massive double bottom in sending triangle and basically a huge beast for me. Yeah. And it's really counter-intuitive, isn't it? Because you're talking Mario Draghi, you're talking negative rates and you're talking potentially further Euro downside, further dollar strength, and yet the price action would appear to suggest that for all of that rhetoric, the market doesn't want to go lower. It just does not want to go lower. Every time the market wants to push Eurodollar lower, it finds a steady stream of buyers at steadily higher levels. We bottomed in December, then we got January, then we got March, now we got April. And that December was a double bottom, and I think what we're getting to is we're kind of getting out to the end of this easing stimulus cycle. We're not there yet. They're still talking like they're trying to do more, but I think one thing we've seen is that when the first stimulus came in several years ago led by the Fed, it was working and it was helping, and now we're getting the more stimulus comes in, the less effect it's having, but we're still getting the rhetoric, but we're not getting the results. And sooner or later, I think the street is seeing that this is going to come to an end and they're going to have to start going back the other way or at least back to neutral. The pendulum though, it's the pendulum. Yeah, it's pendulum at one end. And it's starting to swing back the other way. Yeah. And certainly in the context of these, this particular chart here, certainly based on the price action of the last five months, the euro is finding support at progressively higher levels. And that suggests to me, the shorts are going to get stale in euro and they're going to get impatient and eventually they're going to lose patience and they're going to bust it through 115 and we're going to go to 120 based on the price action that we're seeing right now. Certainly if you look at this spike lower here and the long shadow on this candle, that would seem to suggest that every time we go lower, we're finding buyers, the buyers aren't waiting anywhere near as long as they did in the past. So euro, dollar and cable do look as if they could actually go higher and not lower, which brings us neatly on to euro sterling. We're overrunning slightly, but I think that's fine as long as you guys are prepared to stick with us. Euro sterling, I posted on my blog the other week, a very nice bearish and golfing week. So that suggests that we are probably going to test the bottom of this level here around about 76.90 while we're below 78.60 and the oscillator is turning over. That suggests that probably we are probably going to drift lower. We may squeeze higher first around about 78.60, but overall now that we're back below the 200 week moving average, which is disappointing given that we broke above it, false break, we're probably going to trend back lower towards 76.90 and potentially 75.20. If you look at it on the daily chart, it's probably not as cut and dried. We are looking to find a little bit of a base around here, which would suggest that maybe we're probably going to range around here a little bit, maybe test here, but ultimately rebound back towards these sorts of levels. So a stronger pound, slightly weaker euro over the course of the next few sessions I would suggest. Is there anything else, ladies, that you would want us to cover before I move on to Brent Crude? Because that also ties in with the dollar story that we've been talking about and the FOMC apologizes this chart looks a little bit cluttered. But again, it's surprising actually this Brent Crude chart looks in terms of where the market is going. We've bottomed out. This is Brent in January. We've slowly started to ratchet higher. The lows are getting higher. The highs are getting higher. Momentum is taking us higher and when we broke out here, my minimum price objective, and again I covered this in a video a few weeks ago, was $44 a barrel. We've now overshot it. So now the next resistance level is around about $47.60 a barrel. So again it's a similar sort of story and why is it a similar sort of story? Weaker dollar. The narrative is the same. There's a common theme running through all of this. It was a stronger dollar that sent oil lower. It was a stronger dollar that sent euro lower. It was a stronger dollar that was weighing on stock markets globally. Now that the dollar is starting to weaken, that's when you've got the recovery in stock markets at the beginning of February as oil prices started to recover and the dollar started to weaken. So these correlations are important and it's important to understand how they work and again here, we've got potentially the 50 coming up to meet the 200-day moving average is trending lower. So even if they cross over, it doesn't necessarily mean it's a strongly bullish signal because the 200-day is moving down. Long-term momentum is still negative despite the fact the short-term momentum is turning positive. Do you want to expand upon that Colin or do you want to move on to dollar CAD because dollar CAD is a complete proxy for crude oil? Yes. Let's go in actually. We'll go to the dollar CAD and we're getting a little bit overbought here on the stochastics again and so the previous time we saw that back in March it kind of went sideways for a month so don't be surprised if we see oil start to level off at some point fairly soon. And let's go to dollar CAD. I'm just going to bring something up here actually just give me one second. So we're going to bring up dollar CAD for you because it's a nice little show here. As well we're on the topic of how the OE inventories have come out and they're showing a rise of just under about 2 million barrels for the U.S. crude oil and a rise of 1.6 million barrels for gasoline. So that contradicts the decline we had in the API inventories last night and so that could put a bit of a cap on crude oil in the near-term and so for WTI we're looking at $45 and so I reason I wanted to mention that we're going now into and we're seeing that come back off a little. So let me dimension that on the Canadian dollar as well. So this is a WTI chart we've pushed back off this 138 level which is at $43.80 so that actually works as a nice little resistance level and again in chart we could well start to drift lower and that's exactly what is happening right now on the inventory data which has dropped pretty much the best part of the dollar already on the back of that inventory data but that's not a big move in the context of the way oil prices have been moving over the course of the last few days you can see yesterday's big up move there so we've dropped the dollar but look how far up we went yesterday so even if we give back half of that we're still up on the week so it's always important to bear that sort of thing in mind. So what does that mean for the Canadian dollar? So the Canadian dollar is going to weaken slightly and certainly we are seeing that being played out right now. Yeah. It was getting oversold already on the stochastics and getting close to that $125 so that's $125 for dollar CAD that's $0.80 for CAD US dollar that's a really, really big psychological level on both sides of that pair and so a point where we would expect and especially given the stochastics and the RSI reaching extreme levels that it's probably getting to a point where we would be expecting it to pause anyways and now we're seeing that starting to come back up a little bit with crude oil coming back off so it's at a point where it's due for at least some sort of pause maybe a correction here, minor correction. Right now that trend's pretty solid. And the Federal Reserve could play into that so you could get a decent rally in dollar CAD back to around about $127.128 without unwinding the downward momentum that's been in place since January and again, you know, you look at dollar CAD that's when Brent crude that's when WTI bottomed out and started to recover and as soon as oil started to recover and the dollar started to weaken and the Canadian dollar started to strengthen and started to push the dollar lower so again the correlation and the effect coming into play there. Let's finish up with gold, shall we Colin? That perennial old favourite and again, since the beginning of the year gold has been trading pretty much sideways with solid support around about $1205 decent resistance around $1280 and with slap bang in the middle of that slightly positive today. Yeah, they've still been trying to make it with gold whether that's ahead and shoulders top sideways trend. Our RSI has been sitting bang on $50 for days and we're seeing the stochastics basically sitting on $50 so that kind of leans to me towards we've had this nice run up off $1,000 to $1,200 and change and now I think we're just kind of we're just kind of digesting that and we'll probably see that continue in the near term until we get some kind of a direction on the U.S. dollar we saw with the U.S. dollar that we had come down from $100 and it's flattened out $94.95 and we're seeing the same thing gold being the inverse of that that we had the big rally in gold and now it's kind of flattening out as well. Okay, so actually let's finish off with the Australian dollar because we've got an RBNZ meeting tonight I believe, Colin. We do, it's three hours after the Fed so the Fed's at two o'clock eastern time and the RBNZ at five o'clock p.m. eastern time. So let's have a look at this weekly chart. That weekly chart is quite interesting. Look at that spike higher which is quite interesting. Yes, I've been watching 70 closely. I talked a little bit about $80 a cat 70 on Kiwi dollar because there's been some talk a little bit of talk lately that officially the market consensus is that the RBNZ is going to do nothing but there had been some chatter that maybe they could cut interest rates is with the Kiwi dollar getting back up to 70 that we watched the statement really closely because I suspected that they'll probably try and talk the dollar down. I think that they don't want the dollar to breach 70 too much and the Kiwi dollar, that is and so there's two ways that can do that. Either they could outright threaten the intervention and they have, RBNZ is an activist central bank they actually do intervene in the forex market so we watched that one way they could try and talk it down is hinting that they could cut rates if they don't cut rates today that they can hint that towards cutting rates sometime in the next couple of meetings and that could put a cap on the dollar as well which is particularly interesting given the action we saw in the Aussie dollar overnight. Which then brings us neatly on to the Aussie dollar because that weak inflation reading this morning has increased the prospects that we could see a rate cut next week. Now Australian dollar rates are at 2% or RBA rates are at 2% inflation, quarterly inflation came in at minus 0.2 but let's look at why quarterly inflation was so weak in Q1. Look at what oil prices did in Q1. Look at what general commodity prices in general did in Q1. It's no surprise that inflation was the economy saw price deflation in Q1. Since then, prices have recovered. Prices have recovered quite considerably and while the RBA is worried about the strength of the Australian dollar exchange rate will they cut rates next week when an awful lot of that deflation is in the rear view mirror. Commodity prices have recovered quite strongly since then, iron oars hit $70 as a ton. Copper prices have rallied quite sharply as have oil prices. So I'm thinking that quarterly effect is going to be a very niche reaction for the RBA to cut rates on a quarterly inflation number where commodity prices in some respects have rebounded more than 50% from the levels that they were in Q1. It's an interesting one but certainly I think a fear of a rate cut is actually driving Aussie dollar lower and obviously the US dollar higher. So let's look at the weekly candle chart. Let's see how we finish this week and certainly this chart really doesn't tell us too much. We got a very long up the shadow there. This looks as if it's going to engulf all of that candle there but even if it does, where's it going to bring us down to? This series of lows through here is around 75, 74, 50. That's only about 130 points below where we are now. Doesn't mean that we can't go lower. There's a good chance we could but ultimately I think what could determine that could be next week's Chinese data which is the manufacturing and services PMIs. So keep it on this trend line here ladies and gentlemen. It's around about 75. Also coincides with those lows there. If we break below here then I think there's a good chance then break lower. But ultimately I think in the short term this level could hold. We'll get a rebound and then we might break lower but we'll see. Anyway Colin do you have anything you want to add? No I think we've pretty much covered everything. Okay. Unless there are any other questions ladies and gents we're going to conclude today's webinar and just like to say thank you all for attending. Yes thank you and we'll talk to you again next week on Friday when we have the nine front payrolls. Non-farm payrolls Friday next week. 115 to 145. UK time. Great. Great.