 The following is a presentation of TFNN the Tiger Technician Hour with your host Basil Chapman call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648. Good morning everyone Basil Chapman yeah this is Friday edition of Tiger Technicians Hour on October the 20th we're looking at the Dowdown 122 with 32,291 let me just go through the step-by-step so we are right here we are short from for subscribers to my opening call short from or August the first at the exact high of 35,679 that day we went short and we remain short the reason is in the bigger picture the evidence was implying that the nine-period moving average was in the process of rolling over but it could take some time but I use another technique that I use which actually included the nine-period so the on balance volume this little blue line here this on balance volume plus other techniques using the DOG the inverse plus the diamonds to see where we can get an inflection point for a reversal and we remain that way at this particular low actually couple of days just before the low we bought a very aggressive without changing the short-term position you bought an aggressive three times long you do W and we managed to write it up took very nice profits and then I'd said that this is the stop we want to take a profit with a race stop and if today I said if it's before 10 20 I can't remember offhand if it was 10 10 10 20 we want to switch from the you now the moment is taken out we want to if there's a little balance in the SD of W three times short sorry if there's a dip we want to get out of that we want to switch from the you now to the S now which is a short-down three times short which is where we are right now and the reason being there's a patent that now I do have to look at it now we're back okay so and what I wanted to do is I want to do the patent that I'm looking at now might be asking my my single my laptop here which is I'm doubling up screens plus I've got my office desktop which is what I always go to where I'm out of town active right now and I didn't I didn't close it down to refresh because I everything was working just fine so let me see if I can get this going here I shouldn't do this I'm going to try to do that oh right I'm just gonna talk it out so the patent that I'm looking at is the patent that we call the dreaded H it's a lower case H that comes down sharply and then arches over takes out the left side low and then it becomes a dreaded H because if it does that and within two bars doesn't matter if it's a one-minute bar a monthly bar within two bars maybe three it doesn't go back above close back above the left side low that can be quite serious well it was right here we went down to thirty two thousand eight forty six as I say we were long aggressively along the small position we've got out of that we've switched to the short position why because in the H pattern it invariably fails at a peak A or a B look yeah I went to an A and then a B well if it takes out that in this case the 200 feet moving average which it did three days ago and keeps coming down and now you cross the nine period moving average cross back to negative there could be an acceleration and this right side in the stalls and then it can be going to a lower case H that goes to a lower case M second arch or it just comes straight down now what I'd say to subscribers and I wouldn't be able to do my video my hour long video for subscribers on the weekend maybe Sunday now I don't think so but I am going to just type up a report that I'll send out hopefully tomorrow morning sometime and that's going to say that what I was looking at if we close ugly today meaning we're minus 150 if we 150 or more points at the close and then over the weekend there's really negative news and the overnight futures on Sunday night are very negative there's a really good chance that Monday could be very very ugly could it be a low not the low but really a pretty decent a low like we had before at 32,0846 with actually a pretty decent rally of about 2000 points I don't know but it could be a series we just might be looking at a series of lower highs and lower lows and we just don't know but in the meantime this is something very at this particular point I think we've got a respect that is a chance that we could have a very ugly day today into Monday at least and that's that's what we're trying to play for now within that context look at the S&P the S&P is trading down that's down 28 at 42 49 it's getting closer and closer to 42 16 level and that has to hold because if it takes it out that's very negative you can see the weekly chart the S means that the 9-period moving has has gone underneath the 14-period moving average that's not a good sign to go the QQQ where is it now it is down sharper it's down to a point 10 at 357 still don't see the weekly chart go to an S let's see if the futures are in Q why was it earlier up there it is now the futures have indicated but the day is young the week is young we have to wait until 4 o'clock today to see whether or not this then you've got all of them key indicators except for the S&P with the 9-period moving average in the weekly chart crossing negative you can see a very sharp move down in the this week in the red candle but on a daily basis we're already down 26 cents at 144.14 so there's always there's always one or two participants who don't want to cooperate so this is what we're looking at there's some strength in the semiconductors now let's just quickly go through to gold gold is now up 20 this is a big move we had a gold stock why on earth I decided to make the stop a little too tight we got stopped out we had a nice very small gain and then we got stopped out yesterday we took a little bit off that is and I should have added that not subtracted it to the stop that I had and now that particular issue is doing very nicely but it had such a spectacular move to the outside I thought if it made a peak B it would be a little bit deeper than it was oh this is just telling us that finally the gold stocks are starting to catch up to gold itself let's look at the GDX a lot of people involved GDX yep I think it did so today's high so far 30.06 that's where it is right now and two days ago the high was 30.07 so 30.08 it starts a leg B this is all leg A and the GDX the gold minus so they playing catch up finally good now we're looking at a silver silver didn't have as good a chart earlier this morning of course now it does in fact it's already in leg D in the chapwave methodology above the 200 period exponential moving average and I get that to type I can there it is there's your uppercase C on the way up in the chapwave methodology it's always there we go that's like very well the silver actually is caught up to gold because it wasn't participating all that well weekly chart still needs a lot of work I mean time back at the ranch the town is just yes we go to the break the town is down 175 I'll be right back if you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market then rocket equities and options report is a newsletter you should try Tommy 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There's a pretty decent balance from the low that was paid it's up in the higher range this is just telling me that because of the Middle East Conflagation that crew door is going to be there as holding very well between probably between 80 and 94 and if it breaks above 94 that's something very serious let's just see what heating oil was doing heating oil was doing pretty much the same thing it's going to the Chapman falling exformation inside track repellent zone and I just says the whole area of 3.26 is going to be important to resistance it's at 318 right now so a question questions coming telephone I had I had a question the other day I was sure it's just back of my mind now and I'm hoping I'm repeating it correctly and that was is it time to be looking at telephone as a telecom that can give the dividends as you've discussed before when you say you want capital gain and dividends you don't want dividend with no capital gain with the capital loss because the huge capital that you put in you don't want to see that disappear well telephone came out with earnings or something the other day and it gapped up sharply it's still up very nice it's up today 3.8 percent up 58 cents of 15.83 I'm not sure what this is all about but all I can say is that the the XLC which is in the communication sector is suggesting to me that there was buying going on for quite some time now it's sort of stalling and if you look at VZ a one-off thing is separate all together so VZ is showing a little bit of strength today but if you look at the weekly and monthly charts yes it's nice to get something especially a dividend stock at the bottom so what I'm going to suggest is because of and CMSCM CSA which is Comcast is not acting well at all it was one of the leaders now is the weekly charts down to 200 moving average after being the 47s is now at 43 it's not a big deal but they lose that upside momentum so I'm so the question was on telephone at the time I said you know there is so much competition I just don't see anything there and that was right here in fact I think it was somewhere around here it was a pop-up I said I don't see anything there I would have to see if it tests the most recent low which is in the 14s I did not know that earnings were coming out and they were really good so this is what I'm going to suggest and I can't remember who it was Sam I think I just I don't remember who asked me the question so I'm going to suggest that at this bit today is the test because of after the gap up yesterday if it didn't go into the gap in fact broke out above the high of yesterday that's really positive so this is really difficult because if it's a dividend stock and you're buying it for the dividend I don't want to say to you go get in here at 15.85 this is probably since July this would be the high since July July or September I mean a full month period and now I'm saying to you get in with a chance that it could pull back and fill the gap that's a point so this is very difficult for me because it's a dividend stock I can't even say to you if it continues this way and there are fund managers that will be looking for just this sort of thing what's happening in this environment where we can try to find a little bit of safety where we've got it perhaps a dividend and at the same time with the dividend we've got a price that's close to the multi-year loan this case in Ruby telephone I mean in back in 2019 2020 the stock was just about 30 so cut in half right so this is what I'm going to suggest because as an interim play and there's no way I want to say to you you're buying a dividend stock meaning you want to hold it for at least the next three months because you want to get the next dividend right to say put it in and have a stop just 10 cents or 20 cents below this is a longer term so I'm going to say to you to put your foot in the door at 15.88 right now just kind of a nibble that's not the position at all that's not the president that you're even thinking of as a dividend stock but what you really want to do is you start off here and you have to see by today's Friday obviously so by next week between Wednesday and probably I'd like to say Thursday and Friday but listen to say Wednesday and Thursday if it hasn't even gone into the gap or maybe just touch the gap if it's gone to it's held about 15-12 let's talk about it again because if the market is going sharply low and we don't know yet this is just we're trying to anticipate anticipating with chart formation means that you're not guessing you're making a sophisticated guess that's different to just plain guessing so the sophisticated guess says after being batted for so long it's trying to form a base actually between 14-15 and 13 so at 15 almost 16 you're going to be 30 it's a 20% risk you're taking for a dividend stock it's not going to pay you that so I'm just going to say at 15.88 put your foot in the door let's see what happens and let's talk about it in another probably four sessions three four sessions okay next question came in could I look at let me go JNK actually HYG but I want to go to JNK that's the junk bonds junk bonds are breaking the breaking the low that horizontal area that has been in for ages JNK is the symbol spider Bloomberg basically junk bonds look yes you're dreaded H to H pattern in the it's broken the shorter term weekly but the longer term weekly and monthly says that 85 just get this exactly right 85 no it's 86 28 that's the most important low and here you are at 88.09 that's that's 5% another 5% lower yeah this is not good for junk bonds to be doing this and I don't want to take too much time now with bonds because I did the whole thing yesterday other than to say there's a question as to whether or not we're going to make some kind of bounce low in bonds over the next few sessions is that possibility if we get we just see where the Dow is right now if we get it's probably come back a little bit yeah 170 let's just see how this plays out this this arch formation says 30 to 846 that's another 400 almost 400 points down in a couple of days and today and maybe Monday or Tuesday usually lows decent lows are made on a Friday or a Monday in the Dow so I'm just watching this closely meantime back at the ranch let me just do this JNK not not a good sign at all especially when you're talking about I breathe these are corporate bonds now next question came in could I look at a high grade copper high grade copper there it is high grade copper is down quite sharp he's down 0.03 when I say quite sharp I mean the fact that the weekly chart just makes low lows and low highs but it's actually holding above the low that was made just about four sessions ago and that was at 3.53 so yeah copper just says to me it's signaling that it's signaling that there's a weak international economy let's go to wood the ice shares global timber and forestry yeah same sort of thing but wood is the ice shares global timber and forestry if we'll be back in a moment basal trap and take the next hour down's down 170 we'll be right back and when you're looking at bitcoin and wba and altar I'll be right back currencies commodities and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe which is why it's a great time to try out teddy keg stats tiger forex report teddy keg stat breaks down the forex markets every monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures forex stocks and options teddy releases his weekly tiger forex report every monday morning with coverage of all the major currency pairs including the dollar index the euro dollar pound dollar dollar swiss dollar yen as well as many more and he also has weekly coverage of the crude oil market and the 30 year t bonds as they both influence forex markets tremendously when you sign up for the tiger forex report you also gain instant access to teddy 60 minute 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channel and become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv that's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv hello we're back so we're looking at bitcoin bitcoin is up 795 at 29 625 so as i was assessing this uh yesterday i was looking at this and i thought you know with it coming with the dollar as it is with gold as it is there's just a chance that you might see some action in bitcoin let's see what happens today now you can see today there was a big spike to 30,465 so it's it's trading at 29 650 uh this is way off the high of the day but the low was was down to 28 000 yeah 28 000 so i think it's in play uh for the first time but it's in playing in a narrow range and you can see the weekly chart the 200-period moving average it's like a full it's like a like a sine wave right the fulcrum that says you can go up to the top then you're coming back down to testing it then you break to the bottom then you're going to go back to the top then you can and it just keeps wiggling away like this but it has been making slightly highs and slightly lower lows so that means it's in a range bound pattern so i would now not ignore bitcoin and before i said i'm not interested in it until certain things happen and it could happen later in october maybe even november well here we are late october i think this is now becoming very interesting we have not got any position at all in this bitcoin let's see what g g g btc that's what we once had and we had really spectacular gains in this and we've not been in it for a year or two g btc uh coming up anybody there waiting for data there it is oh just broke out to the upside up at 23 interesting because when it was down in the in the under 10 i was thinking should we do that again and just buy it and maybe hold it well this is actually acting very nicely bitcoin investment trust yes it's in play um i'll do this because it's technical friday and we just do this so this is the first this is a right here a b now you've got a b c one c two and then you go brand new a b c c and yeah we're in leg d so yes it's in play i'm going to wait for some kind of a pullback and then we're going to test to see just check out all the tacticals because this breakout in the look here's the 200-period moving average in bitcoin investment trust in the 200-period moving average in the weekly chart the nine is very sharp the above the 14 has been that way since it broke out back in early earlier this year back in march and this is almost like this could be a brand new a here's an a again a this is probably i should check that out because if it's not makes a difference so here we go uh 20.84 20.85 okay so this is a leg e slash b right here actually very nicely yes i think it's in play finally we've got bitcoin in play and i think it's because of the international currency and the conflagration going on so let's just consider that that is something that i now need to look at a lot more let's go back to um so that was the question about bitcoin yes so what would you do that was really the question um bitcoin trading at now the person asked me i wouldn't be surprised if you already have it let's do this let's look it together give me a yell if it goes under 29 thousand between 29 000 and 28 300 and just holes there that could be the place because that is above the 200 moving average in the weekly chart but there is the maxi isn't cross positive yet in the weekly and the stochastic is just improving this could be early in the game if it's going to be moving to the upside next question came in is altar altar is altar beauty remember we spoke about this you said that in the real world the beauty products are usually the last to turn down it's when people suddenly can't afford you know that extra luxury and they go for lower price this is just my interpretation low price products and we had that high in may or 560.60 and i said we've got to be real careful and plummeted and now look at this chart the data this this is just a concerted effort it says any bounce is probably going to have to retest the 370s it's a 374 right now up a dollar 21 and right under the 200 the 200 been moving average when we're over there you didn't even want to look at the 200 people moving average now it becomes it's a magnet line so yes i would just say as a trade for a little bit of a bounce i want to look at alpha as well because alpha is already took over the lead and then it took it took a dive that that's stuck it went to 138 almost a straight line up and then it came down and tested the 200 period moving average in the daily chart around about 95 and it's bounced and it's now at 102 and doesn't look good at all and the weekly chart the 9 period moving average has gone negative so yeah both of them i would just say even as a bounce i just be real careful they just not doing the right thing that's question that came in is the vixx index so um let me just do this here so the vixx index what i say is if it goes into the 20s um v i x dot x there we go if it goes into the 20s and the dow is down triple digits and the s and p is down over 50 points or more now that's when you got to be real careful and if it happens on a weekend that's even more important going into the friday close because that means monday has a chance to be pretty good so the question came in the fact that it's in leg d in the chaplain wave methodology uh doesn't that mean anything so i've made a big deal about this for years and years decades actually that the volatility index is a measurement of fear so my waveform does not work i i put it in only because every single chart that moves your in chaplain wave is the waveform that never sleeps so i like to look at it as to say do your analysis but it has a different connotation whatsoever look at this big spike up back in march when the market made a low and it went right into the vixx weekly chart went right to the resistance level and then turned out that turned out to be a peak c minus and if you go back look at this peak c right here with a corona virus this was the the major loan 2020 up at 85.47 so the answer is is it very clear no it has no correlation whatsoever other than i like to do it and it does give me some kind of a guide but i could have made this a peak c1 c2 double top and now you've got your d but it doesn't matter the fact is that the vixx index is saying at this particular point it's had a whole week well four days really of very big moves to the upside with higher highs and higher lows and today's one of the smaller candles so far but it's still at 21.41 it did at 21.66 how it closes today is going to be really important let me just look no it's based on the new york stock exchange options there i'm just going to go to the s and p i want to see how the s and p is faring right now the s and p right now is down 33 almost at the low of the day yeah this is this is what i'm fearing that we have a very ugly close possibility and then we'll have to see what happens monday monday could be maybe it's a turnaround session for at least another decent gravity but we'll see what happens the big question the answer is no but it doesn't say we aren't going to have to watch it very very closely because it's up in the 21s and i said if it gets to the 20s we've got to watch it on a closing basis i'll be back in a moment basal chap and tiger this is our gold report as a precious metal gold is still king it continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the london otc market the us futures market and the shanghai gold exchange the gold report tom obrien publishes his weekly gold report every monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the xau hui gdx the dollar bonds the south african rand as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations the gold report new subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk subscribe to tom obrien's gold report newsletter now at tfnn.com are you ready to take your trading to the next level introducing tom obrien's award-winning newsletter market insights your key to successful active trading tom obrien renowned for his expertise in the financial markets has designed market insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades tom publishes his daily market insights newsletter every market day before the market open along with updates when warranted stay ahead of the game with tom's real-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out market insights provides the edge you need to navigate the markets with confidence ready to join the ranks of successful traders head over to tfnn.com and subscribe to market insights today don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results market insights comes with a 30-day money back guarantee for all new subscribers so you have nothing to risk don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game head over to tfnn.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of tom obrien's award winning newsletter market insights firsthand tfnn educating investors iotech is booming but for how long whether you think the biotech bull has room to run or has run its course trade lab u or lab d directions daily s and p biotech three times bull and bear etfs visit direction investments dot com slash biotech today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing the prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus please contact direction shares at eight six six four seven six seven five two three the prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four side fund services llc this program is brought to you by vista gold traded on the nyse american and tsx under the symbol vgz also so also just keeps making hollows and all the highest sitting on the it says uh three seventy four and three uh three i'm just trying to get that it's three three eighty is the 200 period moving average in the weekly chart and if you're looking at elf which is the one that really took over and then it joined altar uh i don't know what this is saying about the economy it says that you know if these beauty products like cosmetics are coming down sharply that's something to respect so this one says it's a little bit better pattern but it may be as early in the game as following but it's a 102.12 and 97 is the 200 period moving average that it has to hold and that's going to be very important a question came in about uh go let me just see where it went to right here quibb so quibb is i kind of i remember question this is uh cranches china internet uh look break into a new low he has the art formation in the weekly chart not a good sign it just says that something's going on here that is really not positive and that at 25 is a real good chance that if 24 support doesn't hold it's going to become a big problem i think fxi was the next thing fxi is the china launch cap etf also making a new low here it's taken out the left side low of i think it was may or june it's going to the wall of mine and then it goes all the way down to the 21 area and it's trading at 25.22 so i'm just watching this very closely as i said we have enough issues here for stocks of the united states i don't know if i want to move to china for a stock when you know or even an etf when you've got you know problems here so it doesn't look very good at all and neo was a question about how low can i go i i don't really know how low it can go can it because 772 is the it's actually up three cents right now neo is a chinese company uh this is electric cars electric vehicles EVs you know if if tesla is starting to show this kind of weakness it's down again today down five it went right through the children's period moving average with a huge gap yesterday 212 is the left side though of the 18th but once you make a pd and then you made this h pattern at a peak c-minus it's really imperative that you find some support very quickly because 196 is the children's period moving average in the weekly chart question came in about oh i just missed it um oh palantir now i had been asked about this the other day and i said it looked really good it's acting very well but it had made a peak d uh back with the doji candle early in october and then followed the very next session with the silent doji candle which says if you close deeply underneath it you've got to be really careful well that's the case and now it's made this h just dreaded h pattern remember the h pattern looks like a lowercase h sharply down arches over makes that part of the h that says the left side load must hold otherwise it goes much further down and here it is at minus 92 at 1614 and i i believe i said it's in a range and that i would not let's look at it again next week this coming week so just as well because it's not acting all that well palantir technologies but i do believe that when we make some kind of a bottom this is a stock that needs to be on your list at least to look at as a potential for the upside question came in yesterday and i couldn't get to adobe fantastic company holding really well up near the highs the recent highs not all-time highs which which was close to 700 it's trading down today 15 at 540 it did get to a d but that d i had trouble with this because this is just starting point for the last move to the upside right here and that was a low of i'm going to go to the 18th of august at 503.90 and the low that was made most recently was at 490 490 watt yeah 498.70 so it took out that low so technically this should be a b and yet another c and then it failed so it's a second time it's fading at a peak c just rare to do that close to all-time highs but i'm going to respect that and i'm going to say that adobe really everything you read about it says it's just a fabulous company this is still a c and we'll have to wait to see what happens but it's a brand you see good nothing to do with the left side high because that was taken out by this low which starts everything fresh and if you're looking at the weekly chart i am going to be able to call that an f right there still one of the stocks that i you know just make a note of this the stocks that have held really well in this particular phase right now those stocks you want to be looking at when we finally make a decent low so those are the questions i had i just want you to check for a moment in the den because i think uh there was oh this one there's a question was crwd okay crwd crowd strike let me see if i can find it right here crwd this is in the cyber security area made a new recovery high so let's just go to this so this is peak a speak a right there there's your a now if it is a by a penny we'll see what happens here this is on the eighth on the ninth of october 185 25 next day is 185 20 if you do enough of these even though it's triple digits you can tell but there's something you got to be aware of there's your b there's your c and i wouldn't be surprised if that just miss 190.36 190.28 yep so there's your d and as always d is where you got to be careful d u e d right there plus sign because we haven't got any confirmation yet that uh this is a serious top this was a peak here 172 64 brand new bicycle right there look the magnies turned down sharply the line pre moving averages over the 14 the daily charge stochastic said 83 percent still very strong relative strength is gray line turning down so the relative strength and the weekly just went to a leg d and that's the reason why i'm saying that even stocks that have been absolutely fabulous you got it if they start giving these d's signals that say be careful i'm going to be careful so within that context you've got a red candle at leg d yesterday and a sharp gap down red candle today all the technicals are still pretty good so this is a work in progress so this is crowd-strike and if you look at the cyber security um etf so let's go to um cyber security etf so that was a bug or why am i said oh hack i shouldn't know this i haven't written down every day hack type it and then we get it off there there we go hack oh wow this is why we did not get into this is because it was too late to get into it now we got the sharp pullback um still not looking too bad let me just give 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don't forget you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv that's tfnn.com then hit watch tiger tv Hi folks in this last segment what i want to do is i have a question about mobile technologies that's semiconductor trading one of the one of the terrific firms actually most of them in the semiconductor firms most of them are really very good i mean they've done there they've been through some hard times and they've you know they get things right when they get it right but right now this stock looks like it's down mrvl is trading 49.64 down a dollar or five a couple of red candles pulling away from the 200 period moving average is this h that goes to an m pattern taken it out in the dating of the weekly chart says 47 is the 200 period moving average it looks like it wants it i just give it a chance and hold off if you so this is really important and i'm just giving this is this is the scenario that i gave subscribers this morning the reason why we switched from three times long very short term because we're still short to doubt from the august the first high we're staying that way for we're going to keep that way for a little while longer still but we went three times long in the recent rally just before the rally and we're taking profits we just we're out and this morning i said if such and such happens and then such such happens get out of the s the three times long and switch to the three times short only because if the day closes ugly and the weekend is really bad news wise and sunday night is just not good monday could be very very ugly so it's too late on monday to get into these positions you either have to do it now and you have to have a stop and just say that's the way it is so we've gone aggressive we still long-term short intermediate term i should say short the semiconductors also from august first or second two points of the all-time high we remain short that marvel is in that second so i'm just saying be careful watch the fix index the fix index closes on a weekly basis up near the highs in other words it's already at 20.63 if it holds above 21.50 into the close it's really important into the close you're just going to be careful this weekend that's all i'm saying so have a wonderful have with that said have a wonderful weekend save you for steve rhodes a great program you got check out my opening call