 and welcome all to another excellent edition of the power trading hour as we start off the show about flat on the S&P cash. We were talking in the den earlier this morning and I think it probably for those people that weren't up at that time or haven't been in the markets that long. Margin calls are something that once or twice a year you'll probably run into. Most season traders don't spend a lot of time with margin although you have some especially when markets have been just going up and up and up and we saw a little bit of that when the market did break off the highs earlier in the year. But the reality is most people end up losing a lot of money on it and they quit using margin and they go to options or futures or something where the risk is a little bit better to find if there's a surprise probably not as much in futures as options. But we certainly kind of see those issues anyway. Margin calls are one of those things where we actually have a little bit of wiggle room and that wiggle room is more of a guideline than a rule. The code is more of what you call guidelines the actual rules. Yeah that's it on margin calls. Ideally if the market's moving down and against you if it's moving down what say medium speed or slower speed your broker will call you and say you can wire transfer money to us now or we'll sell whatever we need to to get you back into the amount of cash you need in your account. And it depends on how much it is. If you've got a big account they'll call you if not they may email you. If they're worried about you and they think you're a flake they will just liquidate whatever you have out on the other side. Assuming that at least they won't be a big loser and that you will bankrupt on them. Of course we saw that with Robin Hood earlier this year many many people that had fairly extensive margins got wiped out and Robin Hood was on the hook for it. I haven't heard a lot whether or not they've gone after the individual investors for that. I suspect with as many legal cases as they have bending they may not want to poke the bear too much on that. But anyway let's go to probably the most active margin provider in the market that's interactive brokers. You may see their ads where they actually offer margin rates at a third or have been adding margin rates at about a third of what most of the other like Ameritrade knows folks have. That is because they do go to a clientele that tends to be either higher portfolio value dollar value and or boutique hedge funds and these are the guys that probably double and triple down on being wrong and then the market moves against them even more. Anyway the idea is that they give you that time. Well you don't always have that time and of course the brokers on the hook for it. So what he wants to do is if he's at all thinking that you may have some problems he'll just sell your position. He doesn't have to give you a call. Doesn't have to do anything. If you check out the work or the documents you signed any kind of margin can be pulled at any time for any reason. If they just don't like the cut of your jib they can sell you out and in a heartbeat. Normally they will wait till 10 30 or 2 30 especially if they have bigger customers that are like hedge funds and may have millions and millions of dollars. They don't want to burn in too many bridges but at the same time you know they think your hedge fund is going belly up. They will sell you out in a New York second. The reason I bring this up is we're getting to the times that you see the market's got to pull back and flat as we are. I suspect the reason why as many people know that there is at least some if not more volume coming in from some of this for selling. And you tend to see well let me put it this way the orders have to be pretty much taken care of by 2 30. Does it mean that you're going to get sold. But generally you're going to get I'm going to say 2 30 to 45 maybe 250. That's kind of the first round. Then secondarily a lot of the people that get warned are on the wrong side of the tracks on the trade will start having to have brokers call them like IBD and say hey you need to clean this up or we're going to clean it up for you. And what they'll do is they'll put in some market on closed orders yesterday. It's one of the first days in a long time. I ever saw any announcements of an imbalance. Now someone brought up 200 million dollars which is not much of an imbalance at all. You know it billions and billions is kind of what you end up with. So I'm not exactly sure if that 200 million was right. That someone brought it up and started talking about it. But again that's another thing you need to look for is on these fast moving markets is any announcement of imbalances. Because if there's a lot more to sell then there is to buy markets going lower. And there isn't a damn thing you can do about it. I always remember the story about Larry Pezzavento and his boss and some technical analysis guru that they'd hired to come in. Larry tells us about this a bit but it's in the... I'll think about it in a second. Anyway the story goes that this guy comes in and he says yes beans will exactly stop at whatever it was 10 cents or 15 cents or something a bushel. And he says that absolutely will not go any lower than that. So it get down to 15 cents and the head of the corporation picks up his phone he says sell 100,000 bushels and it goes from 15 cents to 13 cents or something. And he says he drops the phone and he goes if I can do that anybody can do that. And the moral of the story is that it doesn't matter what we know or what we think we know. In this case I think it was point and figure for the story. And I'll put it in the den here if I can dig it up but I think I've got it saved somewhere. Anyway it's a great story to let you know that no matter what you think of as a technical analyst you need to know that all it takes is somebody else that's got some weight behind them that wants to sell at a low or wants to buy at a high. And we need to know that we don't need we can't really be really that truly knowledgeable. We think that 15 cents may hold on a bushel of something but we don't know. No one knows. Prices are made in the minds of men not in the fields in the middle of the country. We'll be back in a minute. Blooming inflation we are purchasing powers eroded there's no better place to protect your hard earned money than in gold. This the golds flagship asset is the Monk Todd Gold Project in the Northern Territory of Australia. This is Australia's largest unveloped gold project. We are talking a world class gold project in a tier one mining district. This is a large scale low cost project with significant existing infrastructure in a politically safe and friendly mining jurisdiction. This the gold just completed the Mount Todd feasibility study which resulted in a 7 million ounce gold reserve in a 16 year mine life. All of this combined with the approvals of all major operational as well as environmental permits. This distinguishes Mount Todd as an attractive, dearest pot ready development stage gold project. This the gold trades on the New York Stock Exchange and the symbol VGZ. Are you grinding in the market but seeing little to no return or are you a successful trader simply looking to make your job a little easier? Learn to take the path of least resistance with David White's powerful trading newsletter. David White is an accomplished trader whose deep understanding of technology and the markets allows him to consistently find and share winning trades. Support and resistance define the ranges in which stocks trade. By understanding these trading ranges David White is able to find the path of least resistance. David White's trading newsletter The Path of Least Resistance is delivered daily before the markets open to make every trading day an easy win. Visit TFNN.com today and subscribe to David White's ultimate trading newsletter for $119 a month and try all of our newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money back guarantee. Take the path of least resistance at TFNN educating investors. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's Daily Market Newsletter, Market Insights is published every morning when the markets open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed. These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money back guarantee at TFNN.com. TFNN Educating Investors. 877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 As we come back about three points. As I said, everybody's kind of waiting and holding their breath over the next probably 30-45 minutes to see if we get anything and then of course keep an eye probably about 320-315. You normally get imbalanced notices and we could still see those. As we talked a little bit yesterday about it, Rail Strike maybe on Friday. This would be incredibly significant especially for energy prices. As a great deal of our gasoline is moved by rail now because they made it illegal to build any new pipelines. That adds about $2 maybe 250 a barrel on every barrel of crude here in the United States. There's some other stuff going on. I wrote about it this morning in the newsletter. We'll see how good I am on that prognostication. The other thing I think many people are looking at and of course they were absolutely savaged yesterday. I say savaged. That was the mortgages we found out today. Mortgage applications are down one-third over a calendar year ago. My guess is probably another two months. We're probably going to be down to 50 percent. Probably not too far. One of the things always, we never know how a market's going to go. I'm not predicting the end of the world anytime soon. But I will say that the biggest losses ever in Wall Street going back to the 1929 losses on the street in the massive crash, 80 percent of the money lost permanently lost in the market was lost in Reitz in 1929. Pretty much duplicated in the 80s and once again duplicated again in 2007-2008. As a measure of wealth, it's always a big deal. You want to keep your eye on it. And the question is, how fast can we get inflation down? Probably didn't do any good to have Rose Garden celebrations of inflation on one of the worst days in the market whatsoever. But hey, who am I to tell somebody how to live their life? 877-927-6648, 877-927-6648. Okay, let's see. What else do I want to go to? Oh, I wanted to do a little history. Let's do that. On this day in 1959, the Soviet space probe, Luna 2, crashes into the surface of the moon, becoming the first man-made object to reach the moon, as well as the first man-made object to reach any celestial body. Of course, this was the space race. Little did anybody know until about maybe 10, 15 years ago when documents were unsealed. But we had a president at the time, Dwight D. Eisenhower. And he wanted very much to have the Russians launch a satellite and put it over the United States. So they couldn't balk because we had a giant plan to put telescopes in those and aim them down at the Ruskies and see what they were doing. So he was well interested in letting them get kind of the early lead. Also, it would shock us into getting off the can, which we probably could be used the same kind of shock once again to get us moving here in the U.S. But I thought that was very interesting that they kept it very close to the vest. One of the gentlemen that actually had built a satellite had been driving around for months at a time with the satellite literally in the trunk of his car. It was ready to go at any time. He could drive it to the launch pad down at Kennedy. They'd stick it on there and we'd have our first Sputnik. But they kept putting it off, putting it off, and putting it off. But our first satellite lasted about two months in the trunk of a car because we were more interested in making sure that we had the ability to take a peek at what the Ruskies were doing and didn't kind of let them have their day in the sun, only for us to have so many satellites that someone can hardly come out the front door where we can't see them in Russia. And now you know the rest of the story. Now you know the rest of the story on this day in 1959. Okay. So first of all, let's go ahead and take a look at some of these housing stocks. They were just savaged yesterday on big gaps down. As I said to many people and I got a bunch of emails about it, my three day rule on huge gaps down. And that is if you do not get an instant reversal the next day, I tend to look for more of the same. Now with all the volume yesterday, I still suspect that Toll Brothers is going to retest the $40.20 low that goes back into what is that? June 17th. It had 3.66 million dollars. And it's kind of hard to come up with a scenario where that doesn't happen. Sometimes though, you have to say that if everybody believes it, then it's problematic. It's very hard. What's the other one out there in the housing sector? Let's go ahead and do this because I do have a list of them here. Let's go back in here. Homebuilders or my homebuilders? My homeboys. Let's see how they're doing today. Mohawk carpets, one of Warren Buffett's big to-dos. He's owned this for a long time. Has broken and gone through the lows. Of course, they're the carpet and floor manufacturer for new houses. Not surprisingly, this thing had a nice 10-year run higher. Now, probably not so much. You've got a fairly big break today of a downtrend line. We'll see how the volume comes in, but it looks like it's going to be fairly significant. Others in this same sector are Armstrong worldwide in the flooring part. They look a little stronger off the lows, but he still had a big day yesterday. You're going to retest the low in this one, 8191, which is on September 6th. Now the volume is about the same as that low. On the positive side, Hovenian, HOV, actually timely up a little bit today. I don't know if that's selling or saying a lot after it got pledged into the close yesterday, but just hanging on by a thread on HOV. We'll be back in a minute. If you want to take advantage of this sector, now is the time to subscribe to my Gold Report. The Gold Report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold, which is the currency and bond markets. New subscribers get a 30-day money-back guarantee, so you have nothing to lose. Every Monday morning, I publish the Gold Report with coverage of gold, silver, bonds, the XAU, HUI, GDX, as well as more than 30 different mining equities. To seep yourself, the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the Gold Report, sign up now by visiting tfnn.com. 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We are at the start of what should be any kind of notifications to folks on and execution of margin polls. It'll be very interesting to see how much we had. We had some yesterday. And then, of course, the market on close. So we'll look at that. I had a question about Beezer on the last one. I think we're debating between three quarters and a 1 percent next Wednesday. My belief is that we're probably going to lean on the 1 percent. And I think you could see by next Wednesday, Beezer back down to 10 bucks and 9 cents. That low, or at least into the candle of that low on June 17th. It's very hard to see, you know, does it take a couple of days up and down? Does it just smack down on the news next Wednesday? I'd say the chances of getting into that candle are probably 80 percent. So pretty high. Now on the positive side, we've seen a lot of the strongest stocks yesterday that were in the solar side of the business. I think energy itself is getting ready, maybe in the next 60 days, to take a massive leap higher. I wrote about it in the tech insider this morning and a possible play. Don't have a lot of volume today in the follow-through, but even yesterday in the worst day of the market in a year, it held pretty firm. So you've got good relative strength in some of these solars. SPWR, let's take a look at that one. SPWR. Again, a little lower yesterday, a little higher today, not a whole lot. Certainly, these aren't ones that are blowing apart. And if you just looked at these absent of knowing what the market did yesterday, you wouldn't probably think a great deal. TAN, the Invesco Solar ETF, has just been going sideways for seven days. So not much going on in that. This one, EMRK is the weakest one in this bunch, but that's not saying a lot. It's RK, KR. All right, there it is. We'll bring that up. Yeah, it's just coming down and testing, but it's $2 stocks. I don't know if I'd make a great deal about that. First Solar FSLR, if you can type on this one, take a quick look. Now, this one, I would probably be ringing the register on this. It's done nothing but goes straight up. Back since June 15th, $60.96 to 140 bucks. And even yesterday, really wasn't deterred much, but you know what? You're probably going to get a fairly decent retrace on this one. And just a minimal retrace would take you back to 109.37. So that's pretty much in there. Maybe 112-ish. There's some fairly good support, and that wouldn't just be an ABC on the way higher. But we can look at that. Okay, we'll look at some other sectors and how they fared yesterday. Now, here's some stocks that really make their money on crack spreads. An old one there, an MPC was taking it for that one. And there we go. Yeah, I don't see much happening in here. You had a little bit of a gap down yesterday, volume did pick up. I'm not going to say that if you saw that on any other day, other than the day when the Nasdaq lost five or six points a percent, I need to say much about it. A little weaker. But I think these things are getting close to the point where they're going to take off. VLO is another one. I want to take a look at that. It's kind of the same pattern in this one. But it's just retesting the September 7th low. You've got four and a half million shares there. You've got about 2.9. So you want to see how the volume comes into that tomorrow. What else do we want to look at the S of Hs? All right. So let me get my list here of the semis. And I got a sneeze back from sneezing. Did I not have that list up here? I don't know. I don't know why. I should have it. Let's go ahead and just do it from memory. Take a look at applied materials. Again, these stocks already had some weakness in them, kind of priced in from not being able to sell into the Chinese market. You have a big gap down yesterday on volume. These things were probably going to retest previous lows anyway. So for the most part, kind of sold out a bit. But I still suspect we're going to see previous lows. In this case, the July 5th low at $82.67 is probably going to get retested. You have $89.03 is the last low. We're kind of hanging around those right now. I don't know if you can make a big deal about that. The usual suspects in the semis for the producers, for AMD. Just a little doji out here. Maybe the halfway move. So that's $85.76. So $8 more. You can get down to $68, if that's correct. Energy is about the same on the way up, same on the way down. But you're close enough to the July 5th low now at $71.60. You're probably going to get that retested before you find some kind of meaningful low at least in VDA. You had a lot of volume yesterday. Just really kind of got into the previous low. You had more volume. You wanted to come in with $65 million shares in Nvidia. You got $71.50. Not the end of the world volume today is about $44 million shares so far. But the energy off this top is fairly significant on Nvidia. On the SMH, the volume isn't incredibly horrible on the way back down. But certainly July 5th low on this one is $189.94. I think you got a probably 80% chance you're going to retest that candle. That was the 5th of July. We're starting to get a theme out here today. I don't know if there's going to be that much difference. I've got a couple of questions so we'll look at these here today. And by these, I mean LNG shippers. Frontline discontinues to go higher. I wouldn't chase it but certainly another good day. Volume is going to be more than it was on yesterday. TNK, there's always a bull market somewhere. Same kind of thing. TK, now you want to probably wait for the retrace in this case. I would look for the retrace to come back to around 25 bucks on this move and you could still get it. So I wouldn't get too much. 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If it broke down, then either that day or a couple of days after that, I'd probably be looking at picking it up, i.e. busting out of a triangle pattern here since the high on August 25th, not really looking too bad. So a bunch of those stocks in LNG that probably wouldn't look too bad. We do have Tim Ord on tomorrow, so get your questions into me for him tomorrow. We'll make sure he gets them in time. He tends to spend about 15 or 20 minutes on every stock, so it's not like giving him one gives him enough time to do what he does. Very long-term outlook on stuff and you can't just look at it like I do and give kind of a two-week, two-month, one-week kind of idea of where these are going. So anyway, tomorrow with Tim Ord. 877-927-6648. We have some more emails here. We'll take a look at. Anyway, on gold, you gapped down yesterday. You got about the same on no volume today. So, yeah. I mean, yesterday volume was not all that exciting, so that's actually a positive. Really, the retest of 158.03, that was the July 20th low. You got into it 7.4 million shares. Yesterday, you got in with 6.5 million shares. Now, it's not going anywhere. And with raising interest rates, it's probably not going anywhere. But when this thing does turn around, probably fairly interesting. I mean, you had a monster move in gold in the 80s and that came out of raising interest rates in the late 70s and the first couple of years of the 80s. So, well, you have to wait a little while. You might. But is it doom and gloom out here? Well, certainly you don't have a lot of volume in these. But let's look at the GDX. We'll quick and see what we have here. Gold is rather legendary for wiping everybody out right before the turn. So, on a big move down, I'd be much more interested in it than I am here. Although, like I said, on a chart basis, doesn't look all that bad, but wouldn't get me involved in it. Certainly, the GDX, you're back to the support line 24.38. That goes back to July 25th. You broke through it with more volume, which indicates that, generally, you're going to at least come back and retest that low. That's $22.97. That's the September first low volume increased by about 10%. So, you're probably at least going to come back in the low 24s to test it. You may even get into this gap down, which was kind of a little bit of an island or abandoned baby or island reversal on September 1st. But again, you want that volume to be light and then pop back into the trading range. All you had was a handful of days where all the shorts got ran. Now, you want it to come back on light volume. Today's not a bad day. 13 million shares. Again, on a lot of these, I want them to come back down, blow the 3x3, have all the volume come out of it, and then the next move back above the 3x3 would probably be an indication where you'd want to look and see if you wanted to buy. Then, that's not a forecast, but a scenario. Okay, let's go to the emails. Okay, look at the EDZ. EDZ, which is the third world bear market. Kind of hanging up at these highs. It's hard to figure that if the dollar does something that is rather amazing that you can't get. Do I have it? Oh, I do have it here. Where's it at? There it is. That's the wrong one. Okay. And that's the wrong one. What am I looking for here on the dollar? 4x109 317. Been kind of working back in these things, but what a move. Back off the lows. It's hard to really get too excited about what that is happening in that at the moment. Let's take a look for Jim on the TLT. I'm kind of the off day. You have a little bit of counter trend rally here. Very light volume today. More volume yesterday. I still suspect this thing's in a trend. And there's dollar and bonds tend to be some of the best trending stuff over time. We've had the dollar a lot more manipulated than the bonds. But certainly, I continue to think when we look at this, that we're headed back down to where's those lows? I think it's 101 something, isn't it? In the TLT? Maybe it's much larger, longer than that. It was in there. It's 101 for the low. I'd have to fish it out there. I don't think that, I mean, you do have a little lighter volume than the previous lows. So maybe some consolidation energy is stronger down here. We get a 1% move next Wednesday. You're headed to 101. And probably like a bullet on the TLT. Question on UNG. As I said, I'm thinking that this is just the opening salvo and what's going to be a huge move in energy for this fall. Variety of reasons I wrote about in the news letter this morning. There's some fairly nice one. Not today. Are you up? Yeah. Is it on a like volume? Certainly is. Probably going to consolidate out here for a while until the weather starts getting colder. But next real big move is a break above probably 33 or 34. And once you get that started, you could start thinking about some really rather large ABCs that continue on. When we come back, we'll do that ABC in the UNG on the QT. Vista Gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia, the Mount Todd Gold Project. Vista Gold just completed their feasibility study, resulting in a 7 million ounce gold reserve. Vista Gold has all major permits approved and has retained CIBC capital market assistance in evaluating alternatives and in completing an accreted transaction. Vista Gold trades on the NYSE American and TSX under the ticker symbol VGZ. Vista Gold executing a strategy to create shareholder value. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. 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The Tom O'Brien show next on TFNN. We go into a close. Just some things to think about. See if we get any more market on close orders, as we saw yesterday. Kind of drove the market in. I'm a big fan of waiting at least three days. Of course, this is quad-witching on Friday. And normally on options exploration, you expect the unexpected. But I think we could probably say we probably want to expect the unbelievable this week, because you can get it. There are a lot of cross currents. You might find a lot of people off sides, both up and down. It's a tough one to use options to figure out because they are so heavily hedged on these quad-witching days. But beyond that, we get a pretty good read into the rest of the fall after this Friday. So I'm looking forward to that. Again, we've got market on close orders. We've got probably a good idea that we want to watch and see what happens. Could you get a bounce on a strike being settled on Friday? Maybe. If you're not staying close to the machines, I think you're probably getting into Friday and through the next week. You'll have to because it's going to be a headline-driven market with maybe a minute or two minutes for you to make decisions either way for the kind of moves we had on Tuesday. So I'm looking for alternative stuff. As I said, I put it one in the newsletter this morning that won't be quite as affected by either interest rates and or some of the other stuff that's being bandied about and actually could do well and probably won't do badly if I don't get my projected move in what I think is going to happen. So just be very careful. Have your stops in. Probably have to be wide or you're just going to get run over like a truck. Sell when you can so you don't have days like we had yesterday. And we'll see you here tomorrow. Same bat channel, same bat time.