 What's up guys this is Alex from Xtrades back to you with another week of trade ideas list I hope everybody had a wonderful Merry Christmas or Happy Holidays or whatever you follow for the holidays so we're gonna go ahead and get into our first setup here which we had last week as well I really like it again due to the fact that it created this falling wedge and I was able to break out and that particular symbol would be oxy so we had this as our first one in the last video I'm re-adding it again because it's still holding the same structure we got test one test two finally came down tested the third trend line test and was able to make a base off the 200 EMA created a falling wedge reclaimed over 62 77 which came from this over here and now maybe heading back up to 65 76 so we're gonna cause in this again one good thing is that the daily MacD is holding to the upside finally got a positive cross so really like that about it too not only that you got two bottoms right here so I'm confirmed double bottom but really nice setup we're looking at calls last week as well it looks like they worked out pretty good for a few days for this big drop right here either way same price target as last week probably you know looking for that 65 76 maximum and yeah you can just see I mean this is really nice uptrend setup energy caught a really nice bid you can see is up 3.48% on Friday along with energy sector having a huge day as well so yeah looking at calls on that next we'll go into JWN so this is Nordstrom retail outlet you can see breaking out of the downtrend here you got test one we probably count that as test two we got number three rejected at the fourth but now breaking out to the upside while also holding the 1614 support so really nice bottom as well as the breakout the only problem is you will be running right into supply and you can see that here maybe rejected about there so if you're a swing trader maybe this setup is more preferable for you so you can get time on contracts for expiration deal with any supply in the way and then head up back to you know the 18s hopefully there's a strong resistance and also a previous support so yeah I like this more for a swing trade to be honest if you were doing a day trade obviously you just probably need to sell once they get the supply which is pretty close just in case it has strong resistance kills the contracts anything short term of course you know you got theta working against you if you don't know what theta is it's time decay and every option contract does have expiration dates so they are declining and depreciating assets so you have to be careful you want to use this supply you know as a price target for anything short term and then also use you know 30 to 60 day expiration due to the fact that the supply is in the way you could deal with any chop right here or rejection and then eventually it could take it out and go to the upside so yeah to be good for a swing trade I'm looking at calls on this it's a pretty clear setup I think holding support main thing it's breaking the downtrend line decent setup here you will want to see maybe the MACD crossing to the upside hopefully KDJ gave an early curl up signal here gave it a couple candles back so the bulls do have that going for them as well and I think this this trade could be so strong from Friday because you know because of the holidays and you know a lot of people are going to be shopping you know for clothes and I even saw something on the internet saying you know Black Friday sales I mean highs as it's ever been and that's in a rate hike cycle so I thought that was pretty interesting I thought it's like a reason to take this trade but just something to consider you know that sales will be up you know during holidays and maybe that's why it's catching a bit here on Friday so next we're going to McDonald's so this is MCD I consider this more of like a like a recession safety play you can see year to date this is only down 0.71% so it's essentially flat on the year compared to the spy the NASDAQ all down pretty significantly while this is flat so good return and I'd say this is like a safety play even consider a recession play and now that we have you know recession fears hitting the headlines kind of shifting away from the inflation narrative I think this could be a good setup so we're looking at this 266.34 support you can see that it's pretty much bulls are defending this area you can see every time it hits here you know it starts getting bit up and it's kind of chopping around the area I feel like this support could be strong enough to look at calls if you really want to wait for good confirmation you can wait for a 269.94 break break back test make a base and head back up to major resistance so if you really want to be safe and make sure that you're entering at the right time that 269.94 level could be good to wait for we could even set an alert maybe just right click the line add alert on horizontal trend line and you could just you know hit break out so that could be a level of focus if you want to wait for that to get taken out if you want to be contrarian and buy you know closer to the support I mean this could be good to enter on Monday so one good thing I think that bulls will want to see for their bias is MCD crossing back up K to J crossing back up obviously but mainly you just want to see this 266.34 holding you can see it's a major support came from this pivot and you can see it's holding pretty well over here and that also aligns with the 50 EMA we send this to the front so you can see it going through the candles you can see Friday we did close above the 50 EMA so you will want to see this holding as well so you know like gonna cause on this just make sure that 266.34 is holding maybe stop loss you'd want to under this you know 263 low which came from this little candle right here and that would be a good stop loss so yeah this is a pretty nice structure I'd say you can you know try to buy the dip here and it could try to head back up to that major resistance and uh this is a good recession play so anything with you know recession hitting the narrative you're gonna want to look at preferably these sectors yeah XLV which is like healthcare yeah XLU just like utilities XLP which is uh consumer staples these are the three good sectors to look at um during recessions they're pretty much you know optimized to do very well you know regardless of any economic downturn all right and next we'll go into apple here so apple we do have this 129.04 which is also the 52 week low support you can see it's holding up pretty decent one thing I would want to see this do for bowls is get back over that october low which basis from this area and you want to see it break out of that head back up to you know head back up to the downtrend line and reject about there but yeah um I really like this for a counter trend reversal play assuming that the 52 week lows are holding at 129 and um obviously you'd need a stop loss below that so I really like calls on this as long as the market and the futures you know agree uh by Monday open even if it did dip down into 129 that could give a good entry as well you just need your stop loss below that 52 week low so yeah I mean if you really want to have extra confirmation just wait for it to get over 134.37 break out of that level which comes from you know this little support area over here and um yeah so that's just one safe way to play it if you wanted to wait for this to do that you could do that um if you wanted to go counter trend you know closer to support that could give you better risk to reward considering you keep your stop loss at 52 week low and your profit target probably be you know it could be at the October low it could be at this little pivot right here at the height of 136.81 or if you want to shoot for this guy I mean obviously um if you're like a swing trader probably shoot for the downtrend line looking at calls on apple but like I said if you want to play safe just wait for that October low to get taken out if you're going to buy it on here I would use it as a price target but you can see I mean just great support at 129 it's a huge huge area where I caught a short term bottom now we're retesting that area so we really want to see what it does here and this could you know pretty much dictate where the market goes this week uh apple's a huge way to name it a lot of ETFs and indexes yeah do well hopefully uh for the bowls I personally would mind to see a bullish week this week it's just been very choppy and lots of back and forth not much of an established trend anywhere across the board so um that would be nice next we'll go into net cloud flare this is a just another cloud company so this is a growth uh high you know a high growth tech company um obviously they've gotten slammed all a year I really like this for a bear setup you can see you got test one uh test two count that maybe it's a three fourth and just horrible downtrend as well as you know it's creating you know higher lows so this is essentially like a wedge of some sort uh maybe you can count as a symmetrical wedge um but now you can see it's breaking the uptrend line so we'll want to see it um head back down to 41 32 which is the support low if that wants to break it could go to 52 week lows at 37 37 so those are just two levels to focus on for price targets if you do want to buy puts on this I will be looking at puts on this one just due to the confirmed setup breaking um uptrend line here you have a daily candle closed under the trend line thus giving you you know your bearish buys so we'll have to see what it does you can see it just got slammed on Friday even while the indexes are up you got QQQ which is you know solely tech uh even with QQQ up it still got slammed so you can consider this a relative weakness play um from Friday and maybe you can see some bleeding going into next week just off the fact that you know it's not holding up very well despite you know the index is holding up they aren't a profitable company like I said they're high growth and you know when rising interest rates are pretty much taking a strain on everything else you know why wouldn't it affect you know high growth companies that aren't even pulling out profits so that's something you have to think about so yeah looking at puts on that next we'll go into the spy this is the S&P 500 uh this is the spy ETF a lot of people trade it um you can see we're holding demand zone low uh pretty tightly I mean it's every time it reaches the zone it bounces back um bears obviously you want to see it uh when we get under the demand zone low uh before looking for any more downside um we're you need to back test you know make a base reject off previous support etc bowls I really like that it's holding demand it could head back up to daily support um at 390 which comes from this level right here and you can see we flush through it obviously it's trading under the 50 EMA KDJ is negative mech D is still negative so I'm not really seeing any specific setup other than it you know just being at the demand zone and it could hold up there I'm really not going to be too bearish until it takes out that low like I said bowls for any major upside obviously you're going to need to get over that you know previous daily support that we've covered you know previously we're going to need to make a base you know re-establish support above 390 and head into the you know the all-time downtrend line but yeah no specific setup on spy at the moment um you could have an argument for a counter term reversal off the man back up to daily support but that's about it we're going to the seasonality real quick so this is the s&p seasonality um this is the last 72 years of data put into midterm years so this is 2022 2018 2014 etc midterm years are obviously it's just once every four years but this chart has been pretty accurate with the exception for a couple weeks last week I believe that it was only to average a negative uh 0.03% so it's essentially supposed to close flat um which we almost did I mean last Friday's close might have uh only had a what was it 0.02 or 0.2% difference from this Friday's close so it's actually closed flat um which pretty much aligned with the seasonality we only average a 0.22% return to the upside yeah I mean you can see we're supposed to rally but we just we haven't really done that so just something to keep in mind and realize this is not like supposed to be a guarantee or anything but we are going off you know past history and implementing that data into hopefully being able to create a bias so yeah this is seasonality on the s&p uh 0.22% yeah just make sure you know maybe wait for your trend to get established before trying to enter stuff but I mean maybe we'll get around this week who knows next we're going to qqq so this is solely uh pretty much weighted towards tech obviously it has you know your um apple amazon you know facebook etc netflix so I mean this thing's just gotten slammed all year because it is similar to the spy it's pulling into demand still holding demand held the demand zone low and you can see how strong it held um but it did break this slight uptrend here uh if bulls want to see more upside obviously they're going to reclaim it over the uptrend line and then get over that what is that peak right there that 274 level needs to get over that 274 and then maybe head into the 278 so this looks a little worse than the spy does um it's closer to lows as well spy's a little bit more mid-range and it's not breaking any short-term uptrend lines like qqq is here but obviously I mean you know spy did break you know this uptrend line from the low but I mean that's already been played out right here right here on the qqq is a little bit more fresh you can see um it just broke so I mean that could cause a little bit of concern which is why I said we need to get back over the uptrend line to see anything uh for the bulls if the bears want to eat more they're gonna need to take out the demands on the low back test make a base and then fall more down to you know 52 week lows at 254 26 so yeah I'm still in demand for Bill spy and qqq so this could be viewed as an inflection point um where bulls want to see you know upside and hopefully have a base get established next we're going to the IWM so this is the Russell 2000 obviously focused on small and mid caps last week we were focused on this 174 11 support you can see it based out that's it for bears obviously it needed to get under the 174 11 it was able to do that for you know a couple days but otherwise I mean it just chopped like instantly pretty much right when I broke the support it just started chopping so no clear setup on this at the moment obviously the the focus level is the same so 174 11 uh bears are gonna need to stay under bulls need to reclaim back over and also take out this new little weekly high put in at 176 80 and if it did that it would need to break out make a base and then have backup you know into the moving averages as well as these you know peak support or peak resistance areas so yeah that's the IWM no clear setup at the moment um bears if it does want to break down obviously you still do have that 168 19 uh support which comes from this area that could be a price target assuming it stays under 174 11 but you can see I mean there's really no like there's really no like chart pattern or anything for the for the indexes other than qqq you're breaking that small uptrend line right now we're just making a base um it seems so we'll have to see what it does but um MACD is still staying in a negative bi-signal kdj though do give a early curl up here uh to the upside and that came from these two days right here obviously yeah I mean bears you need to stay under 174 11 balls you need to reclaim so yeah that's just the same level of focus as last week next we're going to the VIX uh the VIX 2022 average obviously changed uh to 25 74 um you can see after Friday's close on the uh on 12 23 uh 286 that did bring it down to to 25 74 which is over here and this is our 2022 average close so this has every single um close of the year implemented into just a regular line average um this green line obviously is the 50 EMA and we have one of those on our chart as well 200 and the 50 and you can see every time it gets up to the averages it rejects pretty hard as well when it taps the 2022 average close it rejects pretty hard lately bears um if you're bearish on stocks you're gonna want to see it start curling up either at the 19s or this 20 area I would say bulls have a good argument to you know for it to sell off a little bit down into the 19s first before you know bears will look for it to base out about there but uh otherwise I would say this is an indecision area nothing really clear but your levels of focus are 1994 which comes from this pivot low and also the night uh the lower 19s which is at like 1912 and um what is this a little over here uh 1895 as a major low I would just say you know bulls if you're bullish on stocks you want to see it fall a little bit bears you want to see it hold up these levels at a minimum uh to start heading back up into the 2022 average close next going through the dollar so last week I was looking for the dollar to go up a little bit more um it essentially stayed flat all week still uh in a down channel um what we were looking for was for it to start bouncing up and hopefully take stocks lower um it just wasn't able to do that this week but I have the same outlook I feel like eventually it's gonna come up test the upper channel line that would be the third test right and the third test is what actually establishes a trend line you can see you got test one two test two test three three for the support area but it doesn't have three up here which so it's really not like a true channel yet and that's why I think it'll bounce up a little more and make a true channel once he gets his third upper line test and then eventually you know if you're bearish on stocks you want to see it break out of the channel to the upside so essentially the dollar's unchanged uh same outlook as last week I think it'll you know hopefully bounce up a little bit eventually once you start seeing that volatility in the currency then I'd feel way better about taking puts as well see that uh spy demand zone low get taken out um that would make me feel a lot better about taking puts I feel like the stability of the of the dollar as well as um you know the VIX closing down five percent I mean that's just not enough for the stock market to go lower yet we need to see more we need to see more bond volatility which we did see on Friday if you go to the TLT here TLT closed down 1.47 percent so this thing just got slammed all week and still we really didn't see that much volatility in the stock market last week which totally I mean honestly surprised me I feel like this Friday's close on TLT really not that great for stocks uh considering we've had a positive correlation to bonds all year we've been selling off with bonds despite you know history having them having an inverse correlation when people start buying bonds usually people get spooked in to start selling stocks but not in 2022 this is at a very positive correlation to stocks so that's why I was really surprised we didn't just tank on Friday at least closed down a little bit red because TLT closed down 1.47 percent if you want to start tracking this I would do it it's a really good bond indicator and a good ticker to track bond but yeah let's go back to the dollar real quick pretty much going to repeat what I said I want to see you get up to the lower trend line I'm sorry the upper trend line make a third test and also test the 200 EMA so hopefully we'll be able to see that this week but uh otherwise I mean you guys see on the indexes nothing really surprising nothing really that interesting uh just going to be looking for bounces at demand or we're going to see the demands on low to get taken out and then maybe we'll have a better trade to go off of if you're trading the spy QQQ otherwise I mean looking at these five setups we went through oxy we're looking at calls JWN looking at calls MCD looking at calls give recession player maybe uh within the recession narrative going around apple um at 52 week lows looking for that 129th to hold up looking at calls net we're looking at puts because it broke this up trend line and also made on you know the symmetrical wedge formation and now breaking so yeah I hope everybody enjoyed this video I'm gonna go ahead and get it all chopped up send it out to our person get that written report written up for y'all if you don't know go to the watchlist channel in our uh discord uh go to option watch list and see the written report for you and uh I dropped this every sunday we went with Monday today obviously because the market was closed so good luck Tuesday I love you guys and merry belated Christmas