 Cyber Conflict, Module 5, Russia's Approach to Cyber Warfare. Once you have completed the readings, lecture, activity, and assessment, you will be able to articulate the key findings of the CNA report on Russian cyber operations, describe the Russian concept of reflexive control theory. Welcome to Cyber Conflict, Module 5. In May 2017, Director of National Intelligence, Daniel Coates, provided a worldwide threat assessment to the U.S. Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. Cyber was the first global threat mentioned in the report. Perhaps not surprisingly, the first threat actor mentioned was Russia, whom Coates described as a, quote, full scope cyber actor that will remain a major threat to U.S. government, military, diplomatic, commercial, and critical infrastructure, end quote. This lecture discusses Russia's approach to cyber warfare. In the report, Coates noted that adversaries of the United States are gaining skills in using cyberspace to their advantage and to our disadvantage. Referring to the 2016 presidential election, Coates highlighted that, quote, cyber threats are already challenging public trust and confidence in global institutions, governance, and norms, while imposing costs on the U.S. and global economies, end quote. He noted specifically that Russia had attacked critical infrastructure networks and hidden behind false online personas to avoid being identified. Just four months before the worldwide threat assessment report, Coates' office released an intelligence community assessment about the Russian hacking of the 2016 presidential election. This report stunned many in the intelligence community with its descriptions of sophisticated levels of Russian cyber operations. According to the report, Russia appears to take an integrated whole-of-government approach to executing its cyber-enabled information operations. The report noted how, quote, Russia's state-run propaganda machine, comprised of its domestic media apparatus, outlets targeting global audiences such as RT and Sputnik, and a network of quasi-government trolls, contributed to the influence campaign by serving as a platform for Kremlin messaging to Russian and international audiences, end quote. Your reading for this module, an assessment for the Center for Naval Analysis, titled Russia's Approach to Cyber Warfare, parallels the intelligence community assessment. The executive summary that begins the report provides a succinct review of the CNA's findings. The five key findings are that, one, Russian officials feel that both internal and external forces are challenging its security in the information realm. Thus, the Internet and its free flow of information are considered both a threat and an opportunity. Two, Russian military theorists see cyber operations within a broad framework of information warfare, not merely as cyber or cyber warfare. Three, Moscow sees the struggle within what the country calls the information space a constant one, so that Russia will likely use cyber in ways that we would deem problematic. Four, conventional Russian military tactics will increase the use of offensive cyber. And five, Russian offensive cyber operations have traditionally used crowdsourcing for anonymity and ease of mobilization, though these operations will likely become more government centralized in the future. Another concept that helps explain how Russia uses cyber technologies for information operations is reflexive control theory. Reflexive control essentially describes methods used to convey information or misinformation to an enemy to shape their behavior in some predetermined, often harmful manner. In the United States, we typically refer to this as perception management, though reflexive control might be considered more Machiavellian and with broader themes. Russia has used this concept since the days of the Soviet Union, but the best recent example is the country's interference in our 2016 presidential election. Russia understood that decreasing an enemy's unity of effort becomes much easier if it can sow discord between parties or population groups, and it did this quite effectively through social media accounts like Facebook and Twitter. Certainly, Russian information operations against the United States is not only a recent occurrence. In fact, in the next module, we will consider the Russian cyber operation Moonlight Maze executed against the United States in the mid-1990s. Quiz question one, true or false? Russian military theorists approach cyber operations within a broad framework of information warfare. The answer is true. Quiz question two, which of the following best describes Russia's reflexive control theory? A, it is a process to convey information or misinformation to the enemy in order to shape the enemy's behavior in some predetermined manner. B, it is a process to disrupt U.S. communication satellites using cyber means. C, it is a theory that predicts how enemy forces will employ anti-satellite weapons during a cyber conflict. D, it is a theory that predicts how enemy forces will employ logistics during a cyber conflict. Answer A is correct. It is a process to convey information or misinformation to the enemy in order to shape the enemy's behavior in some predetermined manner. The activity for this module asks that you think about the various types of Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. Whether through fake social media accounts, hacking into the Democratic National Committee's office, or by other means, which areas seem to be most influenced by Russia's use of reflexive control theory? Do you think this theory is an effective one? Would you support the United States' development of a similar theory for use against adversaries?