 trading hour with your host, David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-445-1044. Now, David White. And welcome all to another exciting edition of the Power Trading Hour with me, your humble, lovable, and squeezibly soft host. As always, we'd like to come to you at this time. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. And as we have today, we're on 45, almost 46 points on the S&P cash. The Dow is down 412, NASDAQ's down 154, Russell's down 31, all on the backdrop of volume that's going to probably come in somewhere around 6 tenths, maybe, of what we had last time when we were down at these levels. So, certainly, we're getting what I was hoping over the last four or five days or maybe a week that we talked about, and that is a pullback on light volume. The amplitude was a lot bigger than I thought it would be, but we don't see a lot of heavy selling. We're going to talk about that and much more. We're going to look at some charts and start seeing what they're throwing out with the bathwater. Is it a baby or is it something else? Anyway, we'll talk about that. Of course, we're going to go to the traffic report up to the Hamptons. I saw that going into Long Island, it was as crowded as it ever would be. They've got 20 helicopters running full blast to drag people up there. So it certainly is the big weekend for the Wall Street set. To go up to the Hamptons, as I said earlier in the den, it looked like a plague of locusts flying people in there when I was looking at the news. A lot of people were in there starting to complain about the helicopters, probably complaining about the traffic too, but I can't imagine you could get that many people up there in helicopters. They hold four or five people. Hmm. Anyway, you kind of felt, or at least I kind of felt the air go out of the room about one o'clock. That's when everybody started leaving early, I suspect, from Wall Street. Tomorrow, probably close to a ghost town, but I assume that almost all of the action is in for today. We could still have a little bit. You never know when the tweet is going to come. It's going to move things, but certainly not down on any kind of volume why we are down on a absolute level fairly strongly, but a lot of these stocks not showing the end of the world are certainly not down to where they were before and certainly down on lighter volume. So we'll see what happens on that. We've got the elections for the UK going on. We won't know the results of that till Sunday night. That may be a little bit of a damper on the market today also. As we look at it, even though we know, of course the market's going to be closed here on Monday, they may be a little bit more active in Europe on that, but I think the polls have been fairly clear so far and the party that, at least in the UK, it looks like it's going to win. The bulk of the seats hasn't been around, but for five weeks, kind of a protest party because the other folks didn't get it done. And what else can you say? That's about it. Kind of a quiet day out here. We're going to, now it's quiet. Wasn't quiet earlier in the day. A lot of action and fireworks, but we'll continue to soldier on. You can send me email at pat at tfnn.com and the question is, the first one already is, have I been out buying? And the answer is yes. And I look at buying more stuff tomorrow. And the risk reward just about as good as it gets as long as the volume remains light. Now, could we get and deep dip a little bit tomorrow? A little more. Yeah, this makes the risk reward even that better if the volume is as light today. My guess is it'll be half of what it is today. As always, we like to do a little bit of history to start the show off. And it's all just a little bit of history repeating. On this day in 1960, a tsunami caused by an earthquake off the coast of Chile, travels across the Pacific Ocean, kills 61 people in Hilo, Hawaii on this day. The mass of 9.5 magnitude quake had killed thousands of Chile the previous day. The earthquake involving a severe plate shift caused a large displacement of water off the coast of Chile at 3.11 p.m. traveling at speeds. An excess of 400 miles an hour, the tsunami moved west to north and on the west coast of the United States, the waves cost an estimated $1 million in damage, or not deadly. As we said before, it killed 61 people in Hilo, Hawaii. I would arrive there two weeks later, just a babe in swaddling clothes. I don't know what swaddling clothes are. Kind of remember that for the Bible though. Anyway, I would show up about two weeks later to a semi-destroyed Air Force base and they talked about it. I remember the pictures. And of course they had drills. And even on this one, they had a six hour, five hour alarm. They started putting in the tsunami alarms in 1948. So they've been around for a while when we talk about seeing all these tsunamis that wipe places out in Asia. But they were out in 1948, so around for about 12 years before, really needed it for Hawaii. But as I was growing up, there were still giant piles of trash left over from that. And that's, everybody kind of talked about it. But on this day in 1960, we had people killed in Hawaii. And I think a handful of people in, was it Seattle? Or maybe that was another one, but it's there. Okay, well, I don't know what to tell you. The engineer says my slides not going through, but guess what? I've got it clicked in hotcom and I don't know what else to do. We'll try to reset it at the break. Anyway, you can give me call at 877-927-6648. You can email me at path at tfnn.com. And of course, you can put a message in the den at any time you want. When we come back, we'll be looking, like I said, at individual charts. I am not going long the indexes themselves. As we've talked about it in the last week, I suspect we're going to get a sector rotation. That sector rotation is going to be built on which stocks can do better and have a little to do with trade as we get into that. Anyway, join me. Again, I will be flying off tonight and back the third of June. So I will be on semi-vacation, a working vacation. We may talk about that later on, if someone calls in. And what else do we have? I think that's about it. Should hear a little music right now? Where's it at? I know it's coming. There it is. Anyway, we'll look at some charts when we come back. The Taz Profile Scanner is the most revolutionary piece of trading software that you will ever try. Wouldn't you like to approach the markets with confidence? As you begin your trading day, it's likely that you'll be faced with lots of decisions. 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Hear all of the TFNN shows, plus see all of the charts as they happen live and have access to archives of all of those charts. You can test drive the Tiger's Den absolutely free for 30 days and greatly enrich your knowledge of these markets and how to make your money work for you. Details on the Tiger's Den are on the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN has launched our brand-new website. You can still visit us at the same TFNN.com URL, but when you do, you'll see a new and improved homepage with a much simpler navigation, whether you're watching Tiger TV live in high definition or just accessing your newsletter subscriptions. We even have new pricing in six months and yearly options. Check out the new TFNN.com now and experience all the upgrades. TFNN.com, educating investors. Call now toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. And we're gonna go to our first caller of the day. Other callers can queue up and call me at 727-3. No, that's my home phone number, 877-927-6648. Almost gave away the store. How you doing today, John from Philadelphia? Good afternoon, David. I wanted to ring you and speak to you before you went off on your sojourn for the next 14 days. Specifically, we've watched you with interest over the years, develop your trading systems with your price and technical work databases, including lots of options work, lots of short selling work, defined tune trading tactics that you've become quite good at. So my question is, when you're going off to your software development courses in Seattle upcoming, can you just share with us a story about, in late person's terms, what it is you're actually going to be, what skills you're going to be building, maybe an example or two thereof and how that might be used for you anyway in advancing your trading systems and hopefully your profit performance? Well, I've got a excellent system for finding lows. Maybe it gets better, maybe it doesn't, but finding lows has been very good with my sector oscillators. They're in my newsletter every day. That's kind of a wisdom of the crowd's approach. Highs forever for anybody that's trying to develop a system has been one of those things because they can hang out for a lot longer and what I'm going to learn next week, I actually have two different things. One starts tomorrow and one and runs Friday and Saturday and then another one starts on Tuesday but the one on Tuesday is about reinforcement learning and this is a way of using machine learning to help you, what say you are playing a game like Space Invaders? You can have what they call an agent which is nothing more than like a player, like player one or something and it just continues to play the game. Maybe it's watching somebody else play the game, maybe it's watching you. Eventually, you just let it sit there and play the game itself and let it give it a few rules and let it go out there and see if it can't find rules that are any better and you play it over time. Now, in the case of Space Invaders, if you've ever played it, if you can get the ball to go up the side and then bounce off the top and then bounce off the little bricks back and forth, you can whittle out 10 or 15 bricks real quick from it just bouncing up and top on the bottom or bouncing around up there on the top. And you find out that if you play 100 games of Space Invaders that are Pong, let me put it that way, Pong is the one that bounces off the top but they do Space Invaders too. But the idea is that if you let it play enough games, it'll start figuring out scenarios in where there's high reward for the play. And that's exactly what you do. If you let the machine just sit there and play games, by the time it plays 100 games of Pong, it'll be better than any human player. By the time it plays 500 games, it figures out that every time it can, it wants to get the ball around the side and bounce off the top to bounce as many times as it can off the bricks until it breaks back through down the bottom. So it's figured out a strategy that's much better than most people ever figure out. And basically there's reinforcement learning and then there's another thing which is called Q learning. And both of those are what I'm learning next week. Q learning is nothing more than using a deep neural network to try to come up with better rules and strategies to play that game. So why it's not hard to actually program these and I've worked on it already. A lot of it is probably thinking about ideas that you haven't thought of yet for rules that you might try to educate the program to try. So not all the time can they, will they automatically find all the rules? But it, so what I'm really doing is looking for new ideas for that, especially at highs where it's hard. We pretty much caught all the highs in the last move in the newsletter. But again, I have a feeling that had a lot more to do with me in my experience than anything that was in the actual algorithms or in my trading system. So trading system works incredibly well off the lows. The problem is that highs can hang out there and I'm looking for better rules. And maybe this thing finds a better scenario for handling those highs. But technically there's two things. There's called reinforcement learning, which is nothing more than kind of setting up a game and letting it try a lot of different scenarios and ways of doing something to see what is optimum. And the other part is called Q learning and it's called deep reinforcement learning when you put both of those together. But those deep reinforcement go for things that you may not see. It will try to make a function that actually expresses what's in there, what that maybe a human cannot see. Yeah, thanks for that explanation. I think I follow. I just wanted to ask a follow up. Are the biggest hedge funds on the planets, you know, including ones we've heard of, like Citadel or maybe even Cohen's, do those funds and the people who oversee those, do they have on staff, you know, computer specialists with trading backgrounds who've already done just what you're attempting to learn in developing the systems they've got to grow profits? I think they do, but it's much different. If you've got a, you know, if you've got half a billion dollars to put to work, you're not gonna get in and out of the market fairly easily. So you've got to do something completely different than I can. I can click one button and be out of any kind of stock up to the full level of a forex margin that I have. And it probably won't make a blip on any stock that's out there. Now, if they want to go sell $500 million worth of Tesla, that's gonna make a little dent in it today. Yeah, yeah, exactly. Right. So it is, do they have the folks? Yes. Do what they do, can it apply to the little guy? Probably not. And what do I do? I'm kind of like a very fast little reptile that didn't get killed off in the dinosaurs. They're dinosaurs. They have to play, they have to plan way far ahead or they play in the next millisecond in high frequency trading. So I'm just gonna say it's very different for what they do. The answer is yes though. They have all these folks, but their trading styles are very different. The path of least resistance is David White's daily trading newsletter. And if you're looking for active trading ideas, then now's a perfect time for a 30 day free trial to this powerful daily trading advisory service. David uses his years of trading experience to offer his subscribers his trading ideas each morning in his path of least resistance newsletter. 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This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. And we're back. Um, John, still on the line. Thanks so much for that. I love the way you share little stories. I certainly don't understand any of the details that you're expert in in computer programming, but your storytelling leaves me with a comfortable feeling. I understand the concept. But with that said, I wanted to ask you just a follow-up. Today, and frankly, for the past two weeks, you've described a story in which you've said if the market pulled back with light volume, you were going to be a buyer, and you've acted upon that, uh, expecting some sort of rally coming out of here. I'd like to ask you if you can explain why or why you see that as being a strong probability, especially after the, um, the S&P and its derivative futures rallied very, you know, a very large amount from December into May, and we're still pretty close to those highs. You seem to think we could go to higher highs. If you could kindly elaborate what it is in your thinking that leads you to speculate that will occur, please. Now, there's a handful of things. First, I will say that I have to owe this to Tim Ord, who was on TFNN in the early 2000s, and he talked about how you should think about these big three-day weekends, and I picked up on that and, you know, for, well, 15, 16, 17 years, it seems to have worked. And that is if you get to these big three-day weekends and all the volume falls out, then the market tends to turn the other way. If you come into the weekend with a lot of volume, then generally the character of the market will change. So you want kind of just the opposite. When everybody's going away for three days and they figured out what's going on, if they're all complacent and the market goes higher, then generally everybody comes back and the market starts to sell off. And if everybody's fearful going into these long day, long weekends, then just the opposite, everybody kind of feels a little greedy and thinks that maybe they need to be buying something. So there's, I guess, a lot of theory, I don't know where he got it from, if he developed it himself or it was something he learned from somebody else, but it's something that just seems that you get three days, you go away on a little bit of vacation, and you come back and you see the market with new eyes, maybe, maybe that's the way to say it. But he would do those scenarios a week before all these big summer weekends, and it just seemed to work very well. If you got a fairly clear signal, I think like we are today, where we're gonna end up with about half the volume we've had at these previous lows around these levels. And I'm starting to see that in some stocks from my scans last night, and we'll talk about those after I'm done with you, but there's just enough. I'm looking at high max right now, which is HIMX, makes a lot of electronic parts in Taiwan, and we're testing a previous low that had 9.5 million shares with 1.2 million, 1.3 million shares now. So it's telling me that there's, even if you go to the next low around this level, it was 2.5 million shares. So when you look for those, you can get them. Now, one of the other things that happened is the character that he taught was that the character of the markets change. And that is you get new leaders, or if you're going up, you go down. But what you should look at, if not the direction, the character will change, much like the rule of alternation in Elliott Wave, where if one is kind of rough going down, the next one tends to be rather straight and linear. So choppy or kind of inline and very proper and orderly, as they like to say in the market compared to chaotic. So as we've come down, these big gaps and everything would suggest that whatever we do next week will be far more linear. If we go down, it will be kind of a orderly move lower. And if we go up, it'll be an orderly move higher. But certainly if you come in, you see all these gaps, you bounce up, you bounce down. The next time you come out of these three-day weekends, you're gonna have a different kind of market. Somebody in the den said that I was buying options and I am not at the time. I'm buying individual stocks that I think could do very well, especially in the sector rotation. I think I have enough evidence to believe that as an ongoing thesis for summertime, but I think that's it. We've had a lot of these stocks really like Microsoft pushed to the highs. And I think it's a time for maybe those to rest for a while and look for stocks that don't have as much exposure to trade issues going up and down. Does that answer? David, that was very thorough. I understand you. So thanks on both counts and enjoy your trip out west. You bet. And I will pop into the den from time to time. So I won't be a total stranger. And of course, all newsletters will be coming just the same way they are. Since for the most part, I start about three hours later than everything else. So I'll be able to get up and get everything done. But thanks again, cards and letters. Coming in a course, you can email me at path at tfnn.com or call at 877-927-6648. As I was saying, we're looking at a couple of these stocks. I like this one right here, which is high max. And that just is a good example of a long drawn out back to the low and oh, yeah, I thought, I thought he had already hung up, sorry. Thanks, John, for the call. Anyway, we were looking at that. You've got some other things out here that make me think that maybe the SMHs are due for a fairly strong bounce in the other sectors like miners. I didn't like FCX that much. It's had a couple of two big gap downs since it's high at 1468. What I do like though, it's about 16 cents away from this December 26 low that had 20 million shares. Today you're into about 14 million shares. So you might get back in here and test these lows on lighter volume. Today or tomorrow volume really dries up and you go below 960 and pull back up. You've probably have some fairly strong support in these. Any kind of trade deal would just be gravy on what you're looking at. So what else do we have? We're going to break here. We'll look at some other stocks. Like I said, right now, what you want to be doing is looking at stocks that are fairly low priced, $5, $10, something like that for the most part. It can go higher. We'll be back in a minute. If you're in the CD market and looking for a secure investment, the Tiger First mortgage program may work for you. The security for these first mortgages are building lots in the Tax Opportunity Zone in St. Petersburg, Florida. The Tax Act of 2018 set up tax-free zones across the country where you can build and hold for 10 years and pay no tax on the profits, which makes these lots valuable. The investment is anywhere from $30,000 to $75,000. The interest paid is 7% yearly paid on a monthly basis. According to bankrate.com, the best rate for a four-year CD in the country as of February 20th is 3.1%. A $50,000 investment at a normal four-year CD rate of 3.1% would give you income of $1,550 per year or $6,200 over the four-year period. 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The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, four-side fund services, LLC. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV for the latest market information. I had a very good question in the email during the break and someone asked why I wouldn't buy and calls. One, I think, like I said, if we're looking at the rule of alternation first, I'm not expecting a 50-point gap up on Tuesday. Well, maybe that happens. Maybe we get a tweet, but I'm not expecting it. I'm expecting a linear move, not a sinusoidal move with lots of gaps starting next week. The second part is that when I'm buying bottoms or lows and the fix is below like 16 or 15, then I consider buying calls. If it's 17 or 18, generally the calls and puts are way too expensive for you to ever make any money. We bought the calls on UVXY. What were they? Like a buck 30 or something like that or that and sold them above close to six bucks or something, seven. That's what I like. I want to buy the UVXY calls when the VIX is like 12. That's the only time that you get the kind of bang for the buck that you really want. The risk reward is there. And again, you don't want to do it more than probably a few times a year. It's not something that you do every day. But even if I was thinking about buying calls on the equities that I'm buying now, I probably wouldn't with a VIX at 17, 17 and a half. Each time that VIX goes up about two points, your ability to actually make a profit on that option goes down dramatically. Almost an order of magnitude. So I'm not a big fan of it. At, you know, screaming high highs. I short the UVXY, which we did right at Christmas. And when you're down and there's literally no volatility and everybody's euphoric, I like actually buying calls on the UVXY, but you've got to look and find absolute extremes and you've got to look at what you had in the last movement. If the last movement down was wild, then you can probably look at the next move as somewhat sedate or tepid or slow. And generally you need very fast movement in options. So I would rather do a few other things. I would rather buy stocks that are five bucks or two bucks or three bucks off of lows because you're probably gonna make percentage wise as much as you would on an option without the time risk. But when the, especially when those options are always expensive after some huge move, you can't buy calls cheap because everybody thinks there's gonna be a bounce and you can't buy puts cheap because everybody believes that the end of the world's around the corner and that's why the VIX is that high. So just a thought kind of a continuation with game theory about the way that you should put your trading system together. I always say that anybody that wants to get into trading should buy Dave Salasky's Slonsky's book called The Theory of Playing Poker. And it is maybe, even if you don't wanna play poker, it is maybe one of the best ideas to think about how to apply game theory to what you're doing in trading. And that's what I've kind of come down to. At highs and euphoric highs with the VIX at lows, I wanna be, I don't mind buying puts then as long as the VIX isn't sky high. But the same thing, I don't want to be buying calls when the VIX is sky high at the lows. I'd rather buy stocks that are inexpensive by price, maybe not by PE, but generally, that's when you get the big rips off the bottom of a $3 stock that goes to $4 or $4.50, but it may take a month and your options have already expired. And for me, I would rather look at very inexpensive stocks massively shorted. So if the market starts moving up, I'm going to have the opportunity to have the wind in my back too. So we were talking a little bit about that before. I'm pretty much a guy that the first thing he does when he look at a stock is how short the market is. And that was it. I will post that in the den, but it's, in fact, we can look it up, I think fairly quickly. Can I? Is that it? Yeah. David Glansky, the theory of poker. And let's see, there's an Amazon. I will actually put that in the den here so you can see it. Wow, it's 13 whole bucks, but this guy is a brilliant mathematician that learned to play poker. If you watch the poker channels, you'll see them on there a lot. I'm not somebody can sit there any longer and play 13 hours straight for poker. That's a 20 year old guy's game and you're burned out by the time you're 25. But the theory of how many times you should bluff in a game, the value of playing a free card, being first in the deal. I mean, he breaks this thing down and when you think about the way you should trade, that's kind of what I always think about. I always think about, okay, how can I break this game we call trading down into certain things? And I can start thinking about it. But anyway, it's what, four and a half stars? I wanna know the creep that gave this less than five stars because this is an excellent book. A professional poker player teaches, you had to think like one, but more than that he teaches you how to think in game theory. And like I said, excellent book. I'm not trying to convince anybody into playing poker. I played it for fun for a while, actually even won 12 grand in a tournament once in Oklahoma. But again, it's just for me, I have short attention spans and this is the kind of stuff where you have to be able to sit down and play for 12 hours in a row, and that's not me. But you never know. So I actually put it in there. Anyway, great book, glad to get derailed. But again, I will probably win the divergence and award for TFNN or Christmas dinner once again by not going off yet down another path. But excellent book, well worth reading and don't have to play poker to enjoy it. Really take a look at it, I think you'll enjoy it. Another thing you'll enjoy are tiger dollars. We'll talk about that in the next segment. Where's my music? I'm certain you are or strive to be one of the best of the best at everything you do in life. It's the most common trait that we tigers and tigers share. If you're looking to become the best of the best when it comes to managing your money, let me teach you to do what most wealth managers tell you can't be done, which is how to time the markets. I'm Steve Rhodes, author of Mastering Probability and for the last 12 months, Timer Digest has been tracking my newsletter signals, which have earned me the ranking as their number one market timer in the nation for the S&P 500 for the last 12, six and three months. Timer Digest also ranks me as the number one market timer for gold as well. The fact is markets can be timed and I'll teach you the exact set of tools that I use that has transformed me into one of the best at what I do. Sign up for Mastering Probability today by clicking on the newsletter tab on the homepage of TFNN.com and get immediate access to workshops where I take you straight to the best of the best where I take you step by step how to use an extraordinary set of tools as well as provide great market calls too. Sign up today. David White's newsletter, The Technology Insider is focused like a laser on finding the next big things in technology. If you had invested only $10,000 in Microsoft in 1986, you'd have been a millionaire by 2000. Disruptive technology like Microsoft's is the key to these massive long-term profits and the tech insider is the vehicle from TFNN to capitalize on these opportunities. This is the go-to newsletter that identifies, monitors and profits on mostly little known cutting-edge companies with great long-term prospects. David's experience is as an inventor of Emmy-winning animation products for TV and Hollywood that propelled a company public. Match that with 14 years as a full-time trader and he's uniquely qualified to guide you through the light-speed world of ever-evolving high tech. If you're ready to ride the next big technology full-market for less than $40 per month, log on to TFNN.com and get your two-week free trial to the technology insider. Get in on the ground floor of the next big thing today. Since 1984, Basil Chapman has been using the Chapman Wave methodology to advise traders of his expert market opinion. While originally hand-drawing charts from the late 1970s into the 1980s, Basil noticed that prices under most circumstances virtually always had a certain number of legs to the upside before declining sharply. Later, Basil found that computer software, which included the standard market technical indicators, enhanced the degree of accuracy in calling price turns as well as market trend calls. Thus was born the Chapman Wave sequence. Using the Chapman Wave methodology along with other indicators, Basil Chapman advises his subscribers of his expert market opinion each market day with his opening call newsletter. Right now you can get a two-week free trial to the opening call, Basil's daily trading newsletter, by visiting the front page of TFNN.com. Cancel at any time during that trial and pay absolutely nothing. Get your two-week free trial to Basil's newsletter of the opening call today by visiting TFNN.com. Catch Tom O'Brien, professional trader and educator, founder of TFNN. Also a special guest on CNBC. Tom will bisect and dissect the markets. The Tom O'Brien Show, next on TFNN. And since I won't be here for the next week, your last chance to buy tiger dollars is running out for this weekend. You won't certainly want to check that out. You also want to check out the art of timing the trade charts. I'd say 90% based on Tom O'Brien's book. If you sign up now, you'll get that book and it's well worth the price of admission since it has just about everything we talk about at TFNN in there. So a great book to go ahead and take a look at. A few things that I added in this, which is the power law vector indicator. There are tutorials on the website if you want to take a look, but good place. Anyway, I had a question about whether or not there were any more double repo patterns and they're not the kind that I really like but there is kind of one. Generally you want to have these go up into a continuing up trend, but you've got a fairly decent candle down in Mastercard today, but you do not have the volume normally. What you want to see is exactly what we saw back up at 2940 or whatever was, and that is when all these things crack, they came down on enormous volume. And this one's probably not it, but it's kind of the pattern, but you want to see the volume as it goes back after it goes up for 15, 10, 15, 20 days, goes underneath the three by three displaced for a handful of days above the three by three for a handful of days. The next time it goes below is generally when you want to pull the rip cord on going short. Unfortunately, your confirmation on that is not only does it break that, but volume comes in on it and you're not getting that today. So kind of a putting a fine point on the pencil of double repo patterns from Joe DiNapoli, which helped us actually catch those highs. Maybe that's what I'll be working on next week. Just a little food for thought. In the meantime, so when you can, not when you have to, I will see you back here again June 3rd.