 We have got four fantastic games on tap for this weekend. It is the NFL's divisional round We're gonna break down all four games and let you know where we are seeing value any of those games over at Fandall sportsbook by bringing on Ryan Williams and getting his read on this week's games This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Stonis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire.com joined here as mentioned by Ryan on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W Ryan We are on to the divisional round for pretty fun games on tap for this weekend. How you doing today? I'm good I'm good So we're trying to get through it. It's just we're having a lot of fun here getting geared up for the divisional round so I'm excited to get after it with you and Hopefully get a better card than I had for a wild card weekend It wasn't that bad though, honestly, like, you know, you had some good hits in there You know, I think there were some things that worked against you. That's that, you know things I was in the box as well. So that obviously was not a super fun ride But I think overall it could have been a lot worse and I think that this week Honestly for me, I don't have a lot on this card So I wanted to pick your brain to get your read on what is actually good across this slate So I've only got a couple bets play so far I'm pretty likely to keep it that way not forcing stuff in where there's not actually values I'm gonna pick your brain Ryan get your read on this slate and let hopefully up the listeners know Where some good bets can be found for it this weekend before we dig into these games Oh want to remind you to make sure you are subscribed to the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast Because we post these shows and sometimes numbers move like recorded the Tuesday divisional round first look and The Bengals bills total moved down like two points like almost right away So we want to make sure you get these shows right as they're posted to do that Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast also check us out over on the fan Duel YouTube page subscribe both those places get these shows as they go live get your vets in and While you're there if you like what you hear leave us a rating review as well on the DFS side of things the NFL Saturday million is now live on fendal put your NFL knowledge to the test and create your best nine a player roster while staying under the salary cap Then use fendal's live the scoring feature You can follow along as you compete for your share of one million dollars in prizes with first place taking them $200,000 all for just a five dollar entry fee Saturday is coming quickly side of fendal calm and then sure lot of today eligibility restrictions apply go to fendal calm or download the fendal app for more Details now before we dig into the actual games this week Ryan I want to talk to you about the chiefs and the Eagles coming off their buys this week and Other teams haven't had buys in a pretty long time So how much does how much of a bump do those two teams get coming off a buy entering the divisional round? Oh Huge huge bump Jim they get a huge bump B and there's a reason why there's only one team per conference now That gets to have this buy right is because it is so wanted and you know Just having that home playoff game whether you're able to you know Kind of get rest because you kind of know you're in that position Having the one seed for a little bit so week 18 is kind of a little bit different Especially for a team like the Eagles right the Eagles have been able to get a little bit healthy I know we struggled towards the end of the season But now you know you've had that buy And you know are playing a team technically on short rest because the Giants played on Sunday night or Sunday, you know later on so Absolutely, you know love that for for them and then the chiefs You know the biggest thing about the chiefs is like Andy Reid off of a buy right so like them coming out and being able to host In the divisional round not playing in the wild card like that's been money for them In you know that Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes tenure together And with them, you know as well just kind of being able to recharge the batteries and gear up for for this game So, you know, it's there's a reason why you know, these one seeds are pretty successful overall when they when they get this by going into the divisional round and I think both of them are in a position to to move on to the next round You mentioned the Andy Reid off a buy thing which I always find fascinating because he seems almost a little bit too Galaxy brainy you think that he might outthink himself if he had too much time Like that's always been my impression because like you watch the chiefs in the red zone It is the most galaxy brain nonsense. You've ever seen it and it usually works But like I feel like for him It's almost counterintuitive how good they are off a box You think like okay a little bit too much time for Andy to get is to get his schemes cooking and they might go a little bit But as you said, they've been very good and they've got the rest both those teams pretty healthy for the most part Obviously seems like Mikkel Harvins probably gonna set for the cheese, but Getting sky more back for this week defense looks healthy Eagles get you on hurts next week And I think those things do matter quite a bit Let's start things off here by talking about that Andy Reid team and talk about the Jaguars at the cheese The cheese are eight and a half point favorites here total is 52 and a half We've seen the Jag surprise a lot of times this year in the second half of the season Can they keep it rolling and cover eight and a half points against the cheese? I Think that they can You're looking at you know coach Doug Peterson, man You know what why have we done what we didn't doubt him Jim? But I mean why do you even doubt him when the team went down because now we're looking at you know This this guy has an amazing postseason against the spread record He's six and no against the spread as an underdog in the postseason, which is absolutely incredible obviously that Philly run You know contributes itself to that and then you have a chief's team where I think they are able to handle business at home and Obviously, you know Vegas is like we think that too. That's why We see this the money line where it is and the Jaguars we take by the money line It's plus 380 but they've had the worst against the spread record all season in the AFC They're 5 11 and one The record to cover and we know that the Jaguars played there Already and they were able to push at 10 This is eight and a half, but we know that you know things get different in the postseason I mean the stops are gonna be out They're gonna be trying everything that they can do, you know, maybe Doug Peterson gambles a little bit Is able to go for it, you know instead of letting Riley Patterson come out and kick field goals Lawrence, I think, you know, he couldn't have a worse game In his first playoff stint. So now I mean, yes, he's traveling into Arrowhead tough place to play But I mean if there's any adversity that you could overcome it was last week So I think that these this team goes in there and just plays loose and that's the scariest thing for a Kansas City Chiefs team is like somebody who's out there and just willing to lose and you know This really becomes coaching matchups I think that you got, you know, one of the best matchups on the slate with Peterson going against Andy Reid So I'm willing to just lay that Get the eight and a half there at minus 105 on the Fandalsports book that seems amazing Jim maybe have a read on wanting to take the Jaguars at plus 380 and I would love that if you did Well, yeah, you read my mind. I haven't done it yet. Um, I Do show value though right now This is the implied odds of plus 380 or 20 point 83 percent My model gives the Jags a 23 point nine five percent chance to win this game Which does cross my threshold where I would bet it. I have not because I'm a scaredy cat We talked about this before but my model has shown value in the Jags money line ten separate times this year They are nine and one straight up in those games So they have cashed the money line in nine of those games, but one loss was against the chiefs I it was plus 360 at the time in that game I think it closed at four to one and they didn't lose as you mentioned by ten. So It's a revenge game for the model against the chiefs. We can say that I've not taken it yet because Hey, the chiefs to have had their buy. That's that's an important thing at this point in the year Maybe they get extra bump with the rest may be mattering more at this point in the year I think we could see them put their foot on the gas more than they have throughout the season Because they we've talked about before they kind of play with their food a bit and they won't be doing that here and also I think they're kind of a bad matchup for the Jags in that They're gonna feel to throw the football on them And that's a concern and I also think in areas Tony's gonna get like full Tony roll in this game So I haven't taken it yet Ryan, but I have my like a finger on the button I haven't a value where I would take it. I if it were to get to like four to one on Saturday morning I Have a really hard time saying no But it is in my value threshold now. So the odds I wind up taking it by Saturday are decently high. I haven't done it yet though and I want to be transparent in that so Not there yet, but I'm very close and I would also say I'd rather personally go with the money line over the spread in this one Because I could see the cheese Lay in the hammer. I could see a 20-point win in this game things things snowballing and It's a volatile Handicap in that regard. So I'd rather go with the higher upside market in the Jags money line versus the spread I think the eight and a half is a big number and you're getting a lot of leeway by taking the eight and a half I Think I just I see a lot of scenarios in which the cheese just blow them out and that's why I'd rather go with the The option that rewards me more if I'm right in that this game remains close I think that's the way I viewed at least personally. Yeah No, and I mean listen, you know, this I Hate to put it in this slide, but I am this game has whatever year that was Chiefs Texans vibes to me 24 nothing. Okay. So yeah, yeah We get the I take the Jags plus 380 wait till they're 24 nothing and then bet the cheese money line Which by that point will probably like minus 110 given the way sports books tend to handle Chiefs live lines. I think they'll be minus 110 if they're dead 24 nothing. Absolutely. Although crazy money could be coming in Yeah, the sharks will bet the chiefs But I think casuals who are watching like crazy money will start to come in on the Jags money line Just as much as they're getting up on the chiefs because people always just like oh my gosh Can this be the time that the chiefs lose, right? Take the Jags now and then take the cheese when it's 24 nothing Jags are up, right? I think that makes a lot of sense. Okay. Let's move now to the Saturday night game That's the Giants at the Eagles Eagles here seven and a half point favorites total is 48 and a half and We can toss that week 18 for these two teams I think not a lot to learn there because it was Davis web starting for the Giants But the first regular season game the Eagles offense when scorched her they were pretty pass heavy in the first half Second half. It was a miles Sanders track me basically Can the Giants keep them keep them in check here and cover again a a spread of more than the touchdown? This is one that I've battled with So far on my card. I really I think at the end of the day I'm going to end up taking the Eagles Minus seven and a half here. They smack this team earlier on in the season 48 to 22 As road favorites and then you know when they kind of played them later on in the season There were things that were kind of banged up and you know, the game just wasn't from a full strength standpoint I think with the given the buy Given how Siriani has coached these guys all year given, you know, kind of what the Eagles have done all year leading up to this point I know they kind of struggled towards the end as we were talking about earlier But they were dealing with some injuries and they were you know, it hurts not playing is the key one often to line Not being healthy the second one And I think you know, they they definitely got a lot to prove I mean hurts especially, you know coming into this year I think it would be you know remiss that he just kind of Layed an egg and when it wasn't able to handle business here with them doing everything they do to get the one seat I mean MVP running you're talking about there The thing about the Giants though is that they you know are writing this five game against the spread streak that they've been on They're kind of you know hitting the strides at the right time, but it's it's still to me just Can Daniel Jones do it? I mean, you know, it was one thing to handle business in Minnesota Which you know, I took the three there It was a trap but the way that that defense had been playing all year You know, especially how easily things came to them, especially for Daniel Jones on the run Like knowing that they just had that situation and now have to face against a divisional opponent Like maybe this gets a little bit uglier for them I know that you know, it always feels like a lot when we're talking about you know This time of the season and in playoffs, but I think if there's any team that can if there's one team that can do it in NFC, it's the number one seed. They're having a home playoff game. Yeah I think that the Eagles are a team you can feel good about as heavy favorites in large part because you know If they get a lead they can close it out because of how good the rushing offense is aided by Jill and Hertz and I think that that's a lot of what we saw in that first matchup Second matchup as you mentioned Hertz coming off the shoulder injury Lane Johnson didn't play Lane Johnson expected to go Not be a hundred percent this week, but still go in this one at right tackle And he's a big difference maker on that team the one market. I have the most interested here in is the total I have this at forty nine point two so at forty eight and a half not quite there yet But it is minus one fifteen on the under right now, which implies we could see this inch down if it gets down to Forty eight out of interest forty seven and a half I'd have a bit more interest if it gets to forty seven somehow. I don't think it will that's that's a lot of movement at this point in the year, but We've seen some like day of spread movement that are in total movement Isn't pretty big if it hits forty seven and I can get a push on a key number of forty seven I would take that so I will have a close eye on the total in this game I think that the Eagles offense will score points I think the Giants very well could and that to me is a good blend to potentially get an over So as of now, I'm seeing nothing in this game, but I do want to keep a close eye on the total here It isn't come down yet. I've been having my on this one since Tuesday, but it hasn't moved yet So I doubt we get there, but it is the market I am most likely to bet in this game My numbers of the Eagles by six point seven or seven point two points depending the model So I'll stay away from the spread, but I think that I agree their thought process on If the Eagles get a lead they can maintain I also think that they're passing offense to good enough to make up a deficit if they were to climb their Climb the way into a hole. So I think that makes sense as well Let's go now to the Sunday games talk about the Bengals at the bills bills now five and a half point favorites total is 48 and a half and the reason the spread is five and a half is because the Bengals offensive line is Super banged up Ryan. Are they banged up enough to scare you out of betting the Bengals here? I mean, it doesn't feel great man, right? Like left tackle Jonah Williams, uh, Alex Kappa right tackle Lyle Collins like I mean, that's tough that that is tough I think the the biggest thing And and maybe this changes right when when these two teams meet up is that the the bills have a hard time getting pressure on the quarterback And that's nothing that's the eye test That's nothing, you know, I'm not looking at numbers in relation to it But, you know, just seeing these seeing these games and they've had a lot of island games this year That's that's just not what their defense is. I you know, you love everything that the secondary can do And they're kind of just they're just good in between the 20s Like, you know, not really kind of giving up those those necessarily big plays but definitely, you know Hunkering down in the red zone defense, but I think, you know, Joe burrow probably has enough going for him on the offensive side You know, love to see T Higgins get going last week You know, Jamar chase is always going to get his that'll be a fun match up Considering what they do with tray white on the other side. Um, but you know, they they just been so good at covering All year in these situations. You're looking at, you know, a bingles team on the road That's actually six and three Outright and then seventy seven and two against the spread On the road this far this season. So I think if there's anybody that we can trust Um, to kind of keep the spread covered it's Joe burrow. You love that this this line Is kind of changed right over the course of time. You're looking at it now um at five and a half on the fandal sports book if i'm looking correctly and That feels like a pretty decent size number, you know, I think that Somewhere along the lines it might have been four at some point and that was kind of dicey Um, the other factor though, Jim, which I you know, I just haven't gotten to that point Yet is that the fact that this is a rematch from that week seventeen match up Our motions high a little bit in in this game at least a start. Um, and that could you know, I'm not sure Does that affect the bills more? Does that affect the bingles more? You know, you love that the bills are going to be at home and Everything that's going on with them, but they they've struggled, you know, when you're talking about, you know Covering spreads, but they're usually not in the four or five range So I don't really have a read against this. I do like taking The over here. I just think that these are two teams that just want to put up points in 48 and a half You know seems reasonable. I hasn't gotten to 50 yet Which you would normally think that you would see considering these two offenses there Where things could happen, but you know, I that's that's kind of my read at this point in time I would probably take the bingles plus five and a half, but You know, if it was any lower than that, I might consider taking the bills Yeah, uh with the total it was 50 and a half on Tuesday then shot down because the weather looked bad. Um at the time There were 14 mile per hour winds. Those are down to four now So I took under 50 and a half and now I'm like, uh, oh, we're getting pretty close to my numbers are Add valued 48 and a half. So I'm like, did I did I make a bad bet based on a bad forecast on a Tuesday? oops, um, it's still I do think that Under 15 and a half that were still available. I don't think that'd be a bad bet, but I think over 48 and a half I understand the fell process there for you You were talking about the bills pass rush, especially since the von miller injury They were early in the year able to get pressure While rushing only four. That's why they were able to just torch the Uh, the rams in week one is because they didn't need to blitz and they were generating pressure But if you look at the games, uh, since von miller got hurt von miller got hurt on Thanksgiving against uh against Detroit Their pass defense has still been good, but it hasn't been great. Um, they are a little bit, um, you know a little bit, uh They're basically average in that time Their rush defense in that time is still very good. So that aspect of it I'd expect to remain intact and that that's a good thing for sure, but I agree their defense has taken a hit recently and that's part of why I'm here, but also I kind of think the bengal's offense is better when they're fully healthy, which they're not right now But I think the the thing that encourages me, which is why I like the bengals plus five and a half is You look at their games this year How many games do they have where they were fully healthy where they had lau collins where they had alex kappa jono Williams jamar chase t higgins It's not a big sample They've been playing banged up for most this year and they've still been A disgustingly efficient offense So I have a downgrade for jono williams in my model and I sell the bills by 1.8 in my good model and 3.1 in my alternate model. So Yeah either way it says there's value on the bangles here and Five and a half is a lot. I prefer the money line again because if I'm gonna be right or I'd be really right It's two to one right now plus 200 for the bangles, but I would also take the spread here So with the jags it was only money line no spread here I would take I'd be willing to take either because I think the bangles if they fall down can claw the right back And I don't have a lot of faith in the bills ability to Run the ball effectively and drain clock Kill this game if they get a big lead. So that's why I think Bill or bangles plus five and a half bangles money line both those still Good values to me despite the fact the market has disagreed so far this week Yeah I like where your head's at. Um, you know, they we keep doubting Burrow and we using it as a universal stand and you know, here they are right again Just trying to you know, get to the a of c championship. I mean, it's actually incredible What they've been able to do despite all the things that have been going on with this team So, you know, uh One more time. This is this is obviously I think the the marquee matchup on the slate Both from, you know, a casual perspective and a fan perspective just with everything That this game means so I think that this is just a fun one to just kind of sit back and relax and take in But yeah, I do I do like the over the most in this game Yeah, couldn't agree more this game is most most exciting game of the weekend Let's move now to the sunday night game talk about the cowboys at the 49ers 49ers are three and a half point favorites here total is 45 and a half and I talked about this on tuesday and I was like, okay Um, you know, I think if we were to see this one move towards the 49ers if it can extend more I could see myself buying into the cowboys, but instead the market moved in favor of the cowboys It went from minus four to minus three back to three and a half again. So People have faith in the cowboys. I'm surprised by that personally. I think it's correct I I'm surprised by it, but I do think it's um I do think it's the correct way I've got this right between four and three at a 4.2 for one model 3.1 for the other so I'm not seeing much here anything for you ryan sitting out in this game Yeah, I mean you you're looking at it just with the percent of the bets 66 percent of the bets are coming in on the 49ers 30 34 on the cowboys But uh percent of the money uh 58 percent on the cowboys 42 percent on the 49ers Which means a lot of the sharps are are feeling that that uh cowboys side Of things and you know, I think while the line is correct. I mean, it just it just feels low to me. Um To be honest with you. I mean I I I get last week and I you know, I was on I was on tampa You know this the cowboys were able to win that first road playoff game since 93 So 20 or 30 years excuse me shout out to them But you know All the emotions I think you know going into that game and what that meant to even advance the next round And now you're seeing a matchup and jim dare dare. I say that like this 49ers team Which these teams just played last year Um in in the wild card around I believe but like that 49ers team this team might be better than that team I mean it probably they definitely are absolutely Right, right. I mean yes, they they are better. I mean look at the weapons that they have That they're able to throw in even with perty and the way that perty's been playing is absolutely just You know fantastic and this is a team where like, you know The thing that really helped the cowboys last week was the defense like being able to get You know get the offense off the field put the cowboys offense back on the field get them short fields The turnovers like those things and that that's just not how the 49ers are coached and play Like this is just going to be a grinded out game and for any reason like with that looking as impressive as he was last week Like do the 49ers just decide like hey, we're just going to elongate drives as much as we can time of possession Is key don't let that get the ball, you know against us and if he does we're going to make his life miserable But we're already going to look to put up, you know points on this team. I mean this team Before Brock perty came into the mix like this team was averaging like just over 20 points a game And now this team, you know, all they do is score 30 points for you know at nauseam And you know, that's that's tough for the cowboys because they really, you know Pride themselves on being able to outscore opponents from an offense and defensive standpoint So and also the you know, big elephant in the room with the cowboys team in general is like Are you going to be able to settle for field goals knowing what brett marg just went through Last week and I know they signed. Is it viscano? Um to the practice squad or tristan viscaino. I actually hadn't seen it, but I I love his name So I hope it's yeah and so, you know, maybe that helps but I think that's you know, that's a huge caveat and brett marg's been Money, you know, like everybody who's just watching the cowboys for the first time last week is like, oh Who's this guy? Who's this kicker? He should be, you know, he should be cut. They should leave him in Tampa It's like no brett marg's like one of the most accurate kickers like in yeah, he's good And it just you know, just one of those anomaly things I don't know how much it's gonna linger to them because we haven't seen this from him before But if the long story short if they're not able to get in a position where they're kicking Threes against this team and at least getting points on the scoreboard that is going to be Tough for the cowboy. So i'm willing to go 49ers here minus three and a half knowing its own playoff game I mean they got there on the flies. They're looking ahead They want they want to get filly, but you know, that's hasn't stopped them before to be able to handle business On the road there. So I think this is just an incredible Incredible match up and probably an incredible line to get the 49ers on if you if you are willing to you know, put your money there Yeah, I think I think it'll stick at three and a half based on the way it's moved so far I think we see it stick at three and a half right now I think the most interesting bet for me in this game is actually well over full prop show tomorrow But if you go to the rushing plus receiving market Christian mccaffrey's is at 105 and a half, which is a lot. That's a big number for running back It's a big number and I don't want to disregard that however In last week's game he had a 90% snap rate in the first half And wound up at 73.4. So like he was playing a lot of snaps If you look at the games from mccaffrey with a snap rate of at least, you know, two-thirds of snaps Here are his rushing plus receiving totals 149 146 153 138 58 193 136 And we're gonna put him down at 105.5 for this. I know it's big. I know it's big. We're betting on an outlier, but also I don't think it's big enough. Um I think that's an awesome bet mccaffrey over 105 and a half rushing plus receiving yards because I mean When they want to use this guy they use them aggressively I feel like they're gonna have to use them aggressively in this game The cowboys will be competitive here. So I don't really can serve can serve him I think we see get we see full mccaffrey and full mccaffrey typically is Almost like he's obliterating this number So to me, I think that's the best bet in this game is mccaffrey over 105 and a half rushing plus receiving yards I think that is a tremendous option. We'll talk again full profits tomorrow, but um I just feel like that's way too low for the way they've used him recently when they needed to Yeah, and you know There's a lot of conversation that's had in the community and for just the average fan about like running backs and like how Valuable they are or what you do like to me. This is I don't know what trade but like this is one of the biggest trades that a team has made Um on on, you know, they're they're road to be able to host the lombardi and in a long time I mean, this is absolutely a piece that just made sense for the differences go 49ers offense And just adds another dynamic piece and and we we see that right like when you when you surround The quarterback with weapons like and maybe you know, maybe it is a shanahan system quarterback thing where it's like It doesn't matter if it's lance or garoppolo or purdy Like we just have a system in place and you know, just give us a guy I don't want to slight anything that purdy's been doing because it has been incredible But you know, he he's going on he's going about it on an incredible run. So that is what it is but For me McCaffrey like what they gave up to be able to get this guy and how integral of a piece He's going to be For everyone that they have on this pro season run and has been Thus far it's just absolutely incredible and I think that it just shows value And when you have everything put in place like just to get that last piece and makes a ton of difference So, uh, yeah, I'm with you like that number definitely feels low But I mean if there's if there's any sense of a competitive game here like You know, Eli Mitchell is going to be involved. But like he this is christian mccaffrey show. Yeah, Eli Mitchell deserves to be involved So that would make sense there. I think that the With mccaffrey and like the running back value debate A running back has value if they improve your passing offense and he does so like I think that that's it can sometimes be overly simplified to say running backs don't matter It's like they do matter if they affect your passing offense and he does very clearly So I think that He's an actual piece. He's a weapon. He's not a running back. He's a weapon We've seen that throughout the course of this year. All right. That is all four games for this divisional round We have broken them down. I think that they're going to be a delight Again, not a lot on the board for me so far, but I'm okay with that Kind of now things go this time of year they tone a 500 just around the corner So I can I can rest peacefully, but I think it's a fun slate ryan any final thoughts for you before we close up shop for today No fun slate guys have had it have fun I think you know if you thought wild card weekend was was was fun and in a fun ride Just wait for the division around because there's going to be things that that happen here that are just going to be able to You know, put it put us put us upside down there and make us do a 180 what just happened So, uh, this is one of my this is the fun fun week for me I'm excited to get after it get your bets in and uh, yeah, we'll catch you guys next time I can't handle a second wild card round I can my heart Ask for it to chill out a little bit. Let's just calm down a little bit. I don't I don't want any of that like Full duplicate, but um, that is ryan williams check him out on twitter at ryan alexander underscore w I'm on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s I want to thank you all for tuning in for today back once again tomorrow with tom fecchio to break down His favorite props across wild card weekend. We'll talk to you then this has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network You