 Good morning and welcome to the weekly market update with me David Madden. Today's date is Monday the 15th of February 2021 and the time has just gone 1102 GMT and it's been a fairly positive start to the European trading session We had a strong finish on the US markets last last week We had a positive very positive move overnight in Asia with the Nikkei 225 hit its highest level in 30 years And we're seeing strong gains in European stocks. Essentially, there is continued hopes the continued optimism driven by The hopes of the Biden administration will sign off on this 1.9 trillion dollar stimulus package in the next few weeks They're aiming to get that signed off without the support of the opposition the Republicans Also playing as a mix is the the the positive news in relation to the the rate of which the UK and other countries are rolling out their vaccinations Trader of banking on taking on the idea that The more vaccinations that have been rolled out that's going to speed up the process of Gradually unwinding some of the restrictions on that are better on economies and then that should Bring about an increase in economic activities sooner rather than later But what's on the big of the big headlines and that on that front has been the fact that the UK Has managed to vaccinate it hit its target 15 million vaccinations by the 15th of February It's already kind of rumblings and talking about kind of a road map to the end to the to the end of the Lockdown being put in place this sort of talk has really kind of helped Sentiment people know I'm now thinking We're beginning to kind of potentially see the end of the lockdown I thought this could be happening anytime soon things are heading that direction and with that stock markets have been A little bit on the back of it and volatility hasn't been particularly high today you know with a couple of Couple of stock markets in the Far East Were closed due to the lunar new year holiday on top of that after they is president's day in the US so the Stocks stock market in the US will be closed. So with that We haven't had massive volatility or probably not gonna big volatility today, but you know looking out under the week We have a few big stories ahead of us as always my video I'll do the rundown of the week ahead. It can be found on our websites under seems to mark us calm under insights And then under latest news and analysis So tomorrow Palantir the technology company the big data company they have their forecourt numbers coming out tomorrow EQT have forecourt numbers coming out on Wednesday FOMC minutes will be posted on Wednesday. This is one of the most recent Fed minute that Fed meeting Let's make quite clear But they're not going to be looking to adjust their asset purchase program anytime soon They expressed, you know, they stated that even if inflation does take up that's not really going to alter their policy Really kind of whatsoever. So that's going to be in focus CPI from the UK is going to be published on a Wednesday morning This is going to give us a good indication over what demand has been like a particularly in February So particularly in January seeing as post-Christmas Lockdown very much very much in play see what kind of stage See what kind of gauge it has been for demanding in the in the UK economy on a similar note US retail sales will provide something similar our consumers going off and spending money These are the questions that are going to be asking when these numbers come out We would get into banking season British banks. I would kick off their their earnings season this this week There this week on Thursday. We have full year figures out from Barclays one more kind of common themes other than asking reporting sessions Many of particularly the European many of the US banks have actually been reporting smaller than expected Bad provisions for bad debts, you know connected to the coronavirus crisis Societies are going to keeping an eye out for that water. What's what's actually going on in relation to that? The the net lending margins are likely to remain under pressure But any kind of comments in relation to future lending prospects now that the bank of England has kind of essentially Told down the positive prospect of negative rates in the near term. You could see some comments or language in relation to that Dropbox have forward core numbers coming out on Thursday Walmart the major US retail or have a Q4 numbers coming out on Thursday as well Once again, can I not too dissimilar to the US retail sales our consumers going out and spending money? How is the online operation? spared That was that was formerly rollback a Scotland group or BS They are further figure for your figures out on Friday similar situation with with them with rollback with Barclays what's the kind of provision for bad debts coming to life? That's probably the main focus of of dealers attention Also finally, it's important economic indicators coming out with a flash the flash Service PMI service coming up for France and Germany the two alert economies in the Eurozone and the EU Retail sales figures are coming coming off from from the UK on Friday as well So that that's going to be important. Once again, what happened UK economy? You know in terms of retail sales the consumers go out and spend money Just be mindful that about a week and a half ago 10 days ago the bank of England cautioned at the British economy could contract by 1% in so contract up to 4% in Q1 So consumption is a fairly big part of the US economy the UK economy So seeing how these retail sales cricket was a good set the tone for what to expect From the rest of the quarter and then lastly speaking of the kind of pan panning with the pandemic It's obviously taking the huge toll on public public debt So the net top net public borrowing figure for the UK is going to post it on Friday morning as well So coming on now to the major markets starting up with the FTSE 100 Pretty kind of common theme here seen it was in the FTSE 100 head as high as level since they're January We're back above this blue line here. They fit the movie average While we hold above that metric which kind of which comes in the play around 6,600 It's like it because the recent upward trend which ties in with the kind of more broader upward trend Is going to remain intact if you move on higher from here We could be looking at targeting around 6,900 heading back toward the all-time Sorry, the kind of recent multi-month highs that were set in early January notice on a few occasions the market Failed to break above the 50 moving average So for a while there it appears that it was acting at resistance Well, we could see a scenario was what provides the scenario whereby all resistance becomes new support So keep an eye out for it straight to the moving average But even if you do drop below it, you could look ahead and back down towards the lows of February in around 6,308 which isn't too far away from this one this the airline here the 108 moving average and notice that metric active you know both at Active brief you support and also was resist briefly a support in August and also was resistance in September So that metric as a bit of importance in the past so it could be important again in the future Turning our tension out what's going on in Germany. We're not a million miles away from a record high on the DAX The markets in a strong upward trend the pullback I had there last week was relative because it's going to be small So and the upward trend while we remain, you know Contrary above this blue line here the 50 moving average It's likely that the kind of wider upward trend is going to continue We're currently training around 14,090 if you look the press on higher from here we could be like me, you know, targeting 14 now We could be like can be testing the you know, the all-time eyes that were set Just only a week ago I think I'll be on that we then be looking heading back up towards heading up towards 14,200 300 someone and support any moves with a downside Cruelty find support from this blue line here if it didn't move me If it didn't move the average Tazka form in the last few months of acting as what you know support both As resistance so the metric has been important previously. It makes it more likely it would be important in the future similar situation to the first 200 take it could be, you know, if you have a fairly big Move lower on the tax you could look and retest in the lows of early February Which isn't too far away from it from the 100 a moving average and that comes in the play in around 13,258 Looking over now what's going on with the US markets US markets the actual stock markets the actual shares markets Will be closely because the country is celebrating Presidents Day, but the index teachers are trading and even though We're not we're not expecting the NYSE to open the day the Dow Jones futures And are indicating that the market would be setting a new all-time house The markets are clearly in very strong shape over in the US if you look to kind of move on higher from here Because we're currently around 31,620 to move higher from here Kubrick in Turkey in 3700 800 and then you know up towards 32,000 itself Any moves at a downside could find support from this area here in rod 31,000 And a move below that could take us back down towards this blue line here the fifth and the movie average at 30,000 and 3659 and even if even if you go below that we kind of get heading back down towards the lows of early February sticking with the US looking at the S&P 500 similar situation here whereby it's But by the S&P 500 is you know pointing indicating it will open at a record high should the Stock market be open today. We're currently trading at 3500 3952 if it continued to move upwards from here You know that's really kind of a number that's headed for good. I can offer will of course be 4,000 any moves to the downside could find support from the from the low scene in the early February Just north from 3,800 in around 3,816 3,816 3,818 Below that we could be then be looking heading back down towards the fifth and moving average unit 3,778 a similar scenario Have a big similar to the previous markets big move below that Could take us take us back towards down be at past the the lows of February I think if you break by the lows of February, we could then be looking at targeting this area here in around 3,600 very attention out what's going on over in the currency starting up at Euro dollar So the wider trend of Euro dollar has been to the upside I've taken a look at the price action here The really broad trend in your daughter has been at the upside it is highest in every January It is highest level in over two and a half years But since then it's been moving lower or why we've had the lower low the lower high the lower low But the candle we saw here on Friday the 5th of February Which seems to be a bullish engulfing the market prep rebounded off the kind of the recent lows that it set But and they get it set in on the kind of towards this blue line here the 50 moving average But hasn't quite taken that out yet So it seems to me that we can this is this blue line here the fifth of the moving average is acting as resistance While we while we hold the lowest It's like it up to kind of wider the near term downtrend could continue But if you do manage to get break back above it and hold above it We could have been looking at retesting one one spot 22 this kind of zone here And if you go beyond that we could be looking retesting the recent multi-year highs set in early January In at one spot 20 20 one spot 23 49 If the 50 moving average comes to the play in at one spot 21 53 if you fail to Take that out. It could be a sign that this little move here to the upside was only just with only a correction in the kind of Indicator near term downtrend and the market could be looking at rolling over on itself I should that be the case we could be looking heading back towards one spot 20 back towards the The one of the movie average which comes into play at one spot 1982 and if you go below that give a break below the earth to be the low on February the fifth Which comes into play in around one spot 19 52 that could be a sign that we refer the losses It could take us back down towards the lows in early December in around one spot 19 23 In the strong upward gain in fact Take a look at pound dollar now. We're now in the trading north of one spot 39 and pound dollar. So we're back at levels Multi-year highs to receive back a level last seen in August. So apologies April 2018 So coming up Multi-year highs have been set markets in the strong upward trend We see my series of higher highs and higher lows Taking a look at the market indicator mark the histogram positive momentum is gate is rising The markets moving higher momentum is moving higher So it seems that the at the momentum is with the polls if you do press that higher from you We could be looking heading up towards 140. It's a big number And it's it's less than 100 pips away because we're currently in a one-spot 39 oh eight So kind of 140 is the next big level to keep an eye for to the upside Any moves to the downside could find support from this blue line here the fifth in moving average in a one-spot 35 96 Notice how on a few occasions in this Both mid and early and late December that metric acted nicely as support So if an area is you know up as active support in the past it makes it more likely it'll be of support in the future But obviously there are no guarantees Very attention now it was going on over commodities. So One of the kind of common themes Over the last few weeks has been that there's been a very strong inverse relationship between the u.s Dollar and gold gold trading dollars so strong so a weaker dollar often helps it and conversely a stronger dollar opposite often But pressure on us even though the dollar is lower today Gold is still a bit lower because overall the traders are in risk on attitude We've seen stock markets and metals perform quite well and oil perform quite well Which you come on to in a second the traders are going to take on risk Therefore they're going to shine away from assets that are considered to be low risk such as gold. So If you take a look at today's price move that's been nudging lower the last few days That fits in with the kind of recent negative move that's been in play since early January So if you press and lower from here, we could be looking at retesting the lows Well of last week in at one spot Sorry 1785 and move below that critic is back down towards the lows of late november in a 17 1764 Notice how when the market did have a rally last week a rally to resistance that is red line here the 200 movie average Which comes into play in 1856 We need to kind of get back above that retake that and then hold the bubble before we could then begin to think Maybe just maybe kind of broader in a very large trend the very large uptrend is is is going to be resumed So to get back above 1856 we could then be looking heading and heading up towards the highs of late january in around 1875 Beyond that we could be looking at her beyond that We could be looking at her getting 1900 and then from there we could then be potentially looking up towards the highs of early january in around 1959 And then lastly I come on to the oil market we could bring crude oil so bring crude oil It's racked up a new 13 month high Markets in a strong trend combination of things tensions in the middle east concerns about Dwindling stockpiles our us stockpiles also playing into the mixes It's kind of the the biden's chatter about the giant the biden's stimulus package and then top of that The story that vaccinations are being rolled out and you know, it's in a few months down the line We could have a number of major economies Roll back a number of their restrictions and hence increase economic activity and prop up demand for For break fruit. So we're currently trading around 63 spot 34 This is the bring crude or cash contract if you continue to press on there from here We could be looking at her getting The highs of you know mid january We could be targeting a 66 We could be targeting 66 spot 44 the highs of mid january 2020 so kind of over over a year ago Any moves to the downside In a in brain crude oil could take us back down towards the kind of the kind of 60 box area It's like a large number of something that tears it would be keeping I have for on a move But all that could take us back down toward this area here the lows of mid january in it in that In at 54 spot 47 and notice how that coincides with the fifth of the moving average that blue line there Which acted as both resistance and also support Last back in the last year. So once again if a metric has been Relevant in the past it's something it makes it makes it likely that trade will be looking out for it again in the future That's all from this video. Thank you. Blessing. Have a good spending week and good luck