 Hello and welcome to NewsClick and the citizens joint discussion on the elections. We have with us Seema Mustafa, editor of Citizen. Seema, UP elections are now of course a key part of what is going to happen in 2019. Let us face it with 80 seats in the parliament. They effectively determine the future of the country. What do you think is happening between the alliance, the BSPSP alliance and the congress? Do you think with the due announcement the congress is made? I think they have announced about 27 seats they are contesting. Do you think now chances of alliance are over or do you think there are still some chances of elections? I think when they had announced 11 seats, the congress, it did seem that there would be an alliance or they were reconsidering it again. Because of the 11 seats apart from Rai Birelli and Amiti which Maya Vati and Akhilesh have decided to leave to the congress, the other 9 seats were mostly those where the congress could be said to be an almost direct fight with the BJP. They were not traditional Samajwadi seats or not traditional BSP seats except for Bidayum which of course the Samajwadi could claim. But there too the congress was fielding Sherwani who was earlier with the Samajwadi party and had in fact won several elections from Bidayum on that ticket. So it seemed that the talks had begun again. But 26-27 seats is too much for anyone else to accept and Maya Vati has anyway been against the alliance. She has been making these very strong statements. And now with 27 seats which would probably be eating a bit into now the Samajwadi and BSP days, it seems that the congress for some amazing stupid reason has decided to go it alone. You don't think that it is upping the anti-fault negotiations because it wants to settle at 11, of course it has to claim more. If it wants to settle for 9, it has still to claim more than 11. So you don't see this as a negotiating gambit anymore. Not anymore. I don't think that they were being offered 5-8 seats and Emmet Patel at the beginning said it has to be double figures. So one figure that when they announced 11, they were really looking at those figures from 10 to 11. Which might have been something which Akhilesh Yadav who seems to want the alliance even now might have been able to swing. But 26-27 seats you are really taking this whole thing up to a 15 level. Now 15 is something which neither of those parties are going together. And with announcement of 27 is to make a loss of face to come down. Coming back to the actually the vote figures, we have done some calculations of what if we take 2017 as a basis, then what is the likely scenario in the elections. And it does seem that BJP would then get out of this 27 seats, 11 seats. The BSP, SP would get 15. I am assuming the two seats would still be left to the Congress. In which case Congress would win one of them. Emmet he it would win, it probably would not win rivalry and something happens. But this is a contest except of these two seats and in other seats they contest. So BJP gains actually 11 seats. If they combine, then BJP loses at least another 4 seats. They come down to 7. See what is so interesting in exactly your figures is what we have been saying without the figures also. And this corroborates it that the Congress in itself is not going to get more than 1 or 2 seats. And if there is total contest they would not even get a material. In fact I was just going to come to that. I mean having analyzed Amiti and I covered the last assembly elections in Amiti where you had the situation of a Congress, the Raja of Amiti which is Sanjay Singh, his two wives contesting. So his current wife contesting is the Congress. So he and the Congress had put the entire might behind her. And his first wife contesting is a BJP candidate and she won the election. In fact when we went in she was addressing small meetings. She was too shy to go and do the larger public rallies. She was going from village to village. She had started off and she got the seat. So Amiti for me I think is a very iffy seat for the Congress now because most of the assembly segments are with the BJP. I think all 6 if I am right. So effectively therefore this contest is going to hurt the Congress really much more. Yes somehow the Congress seems to have been given this impression and I really do not know by whom. But obviously men who are leading the party without anything on the ground that oh there is a revival, we are coming back and Priyanka Koliow is Koliow, we are going to do it. It does not work like that you know. This is a hard boiled election. Where you will see yourself there will be no independence. And the Congress is like an independent. It has no organization on the ground. It does not have the ability to mop up the votes. So even if somebody and by the way what I said about Amiti was when Priyanka was sitting in Amiti and campaigning. And they were losing seats. So all the staff factor I do not buy that. It is a hard election and the election now is going to be between the Alliance and the BJP. The Congress is a spoiler and it will spoil things not for the BJP as some people hope but really more for the Alliance. Including itself. Because if it is finally. You know the interesting part is that actually if the Alliance had taken place just a little more than a 2% swing from the 2017 figure would have seen BJP wiped out completely in all these 27 constituencies. And that is something which is pure electoral arithmetic. I am not saying that this is the political arithmetic or this is what is going to happen. But that is how close they could be to wiping out the UP. In UP at least in these 27 seats the BJP. And even if we take the state as a whole if they come together it does not look BJP is going to get more than 10 to 14 seats in the whole of UP if they come together and there is a. You know if the Congress was when the Congress when it was like they might enter the Alliance and the Alliance had announced itself and they were waiting for the Congress to make up its mind. The reports from the state were suggesting a 60-20 ratio. 60 for the Alliance 20 for them even at that stage. And I think that when Priyanka Gandhi who seems to be what the Trump card that Rahul Gandhi was referring to which I do not think she is at all. When they spend those 2 days and then disappeared from view. I mean if you are serious then why have you wasted these 3 weeks. It is also interesting what you said that again the calculation 2017 that if the Alliance did form in UP then they would get only 14 seats BJP. If the Alliance does not form in UP they could get up to 30 seats. So 50, 30 would be what they would get. And if there was an Alliance and again a 2.2% swing BJP would lose all 86 seats. That is really the death knell for BJP coming back to power. And that is what we are really talking about. Yes but we are also talking about the fact that we are also talking about a party that has jumped into an election hoping that it would cut the upper caste from the BJP and then other votes would follow. Now we are looking at a scenario post Balakot in Pulwama in UP and the 10% announcement that the BJP has made for the upper economically mobile caste. Those 2 both the things both Balakot and the 10% reservation is aimed completely at the consolidation of the upper caste. BJP is not looking at the other constituencies at all there right now because both these issues do not impact on the other constituencies. Other constituencies can be impacted by communalism, by other caste things that they are playing. That is a different thing but these 2 measures are only for the upper caste. That upper caste consolidation behind the BJP will probably be complete in this election. So what you are saying is mayavati's calculation which has also been there that Congress contesting helps us because it also cuts into the upper caste vote of the BJP. It is over. That is really not what you think would happen. Not anymore. Not anymore. But what can happen is particularly in eastern UP on the in the assembly segments, we are talking about a shift or a confusion with the Muslim vote. That is the problem. The problem is and has been by the Congress entering there is it is not now going to be able to shift the upper caste vote which is anyway a more educated and less volatile vote because it is not a terrorized vote. It is not a traumatized vote. It is not an insecure vote. Today we are talking of a UP where the minority and the Muslim vote is very, very scared. And when you are very scared as a vote bank which we have seen in past elections, rumours can shift you, can make you run. So what we talk about this mature tactical voting is actually subjected to a lot of political manipulation through rumours. There can be a rumour for instance that this particular candidate is winning and that particular candidate has spoken to the BJP. And you will find shifts which were not even thought overnight. And that is the danger of the Congress being there. If the Congress was not there, there was no choice. People would not make that choice. They were all going to the Gadbandhan. So the Gadbandhan would have had a large section of the Dalit vote, section of the Yadav vote, other backwards where they have a thing and the Muslim vote or mass. So that would have changed the picture. Today I am not so sure. The Congress has brought in, you know it was an election that was a done deal. They could have kept out, taken the two seats or negotiated for five and they would have got all five. Now they might not get any or at most like your figures show may be one. And you have actually turned a settled election upside down. And you actually are talking about defeating the BJP in India while you are playing around in the most crucial state in these elections. Well the arguments of sub within the Congress has been that we were willing to do a deal but Mayavathi is not interested. That is why this has happened. You know Mayavathi is, it is a regional party. And regional parties are always possessive about the region they represent because that is all that they have. Mayavathi wants to come to the center which is an ambition. And why shouldn't she have that ambition? If Rahul Gandhi can have that ambition, if Modi can have that ambition, why can't there's nothing to say that Mayavathi because she's a Dalit leader should not have it and just because we don't like her face. So she has that ambition and she's got only UP to go with. One would have thought that in the spirit of accommodation and knowing the kind of crucial election the country is entering into this time they would have accommodated her to seat request in Madhya Pradesh given her a one or two seat in Rajasthan. I mean they haven't done so fantastically in Rajasthan as they claim that they would sweep, they haven't. And kept that party with her and then negotiated some here. I mean look at Ajit Singh. Ajit Singh is always been one of the most contankerous and difficult politicians in coalitions, right? I just met him, he's taken only three seats. He'll probably be getting his pound of fresh in the assembly election because he fears that this is a crucial election, there are not too many seats they can swing very easily. So they let it go at three and he's got difficult seats to contest in western UP. Now the smaller parties are making the adjustment and this large party is sitting over there and saying oh we cannot manage because the state unit doesn't want us to go with or we can't manage because somebody else doesn't do it then what kind of leadership are you? Do you see a lack of vision in the Congress today? Oh yes, I think it's not just a lack of vision it's even complete political immaturity in the manner in which they are handling alliances. One would have thought that this party would realize that this is not an ordinary election. Narendra Modi and Amit Shah realize that they're giving up seats. In Bihar they're giving up seats where they have sitting MPs to keep the coalitions alive. They've just got the AGP back after this very very volatile face-off in Assam. They are working towards that end and this party has become so arrogant and full of itself that it feels that it can win the election without anybody. I mean if they had to focus and they had to do something they could have done it in the three states Madhya Pradesh in four states Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and brought in the trump card which they think is Priyanka Gandhi into these states where they are in direct fight with the BJP but we hear no strategy from these states to deliver the MPs. Already the BJP is growing in strength and will probably sweep Rajasthan this time, almost certain and these guys are fighting the allies and the regional parties in their states. This is not how you win elections. Rather dismal prediction Seema, I would say there is hope yet because I think the people also are going to register their verdict and just quick interruption there is hope because in UP the people are consolidating behind the Margarh Bandhan and the BJP and the Congress unfortunately for itself is becoming almost as of today it can change tomorrow an insignificant factor. So what do you say is going to be a direct contest really and at that instance we really have to look at the pro and anti-VJP votes and the Congress as a spoiler will not have that much of a leave. Let's hope that's what happens. Let's hope Rajasthan your predictions do not come true and as both of us have made predictions earlier which we have regretted and I hope that this time our predictions are correct. But that doesn't stop us from making predictions again. Thank you very much Seema for being with us and we will discuss these elections of you to Uttar Pradesh as well as other states in the coming weeks. Thank you.