 and it doesn't mean you need to quit your job and trade full-time Monday through Friday, even if you're trading, you know, one day a week, two days a week, have a world-time plan. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys, giving everybody welcome to another edition of the accesstrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing great. Just to give you guys a quick little story, just to kind of give you, in my opinion, kind of a synopsis of what's going on here. Without going into, obviously, detail, everybody knows what happened this week. I'm sitting there with my son, we're having breakfast, and he turns to me and he says, hey, dad, you know what you should buy? And I'm like, what? He goes, you should buy AMC. My son's 13 years old. We never talk about the stock market. We've never had a conversation about this. He believes what I do, you know, he's seen my office and the setups and everything else. He has no interest in it, right? So I turned to him and I said, what did you say? He said, you should buy AMC. I go, why would you possibly even say that? I have all the things in the world. I would rather have you turn around and say, dad, I hate you, I wish you weren't my father than utter the words, buy AMC. And I turned to him and I go, why would you possibly say that? Where would you even find that? He goes, dad, it's all over TikTok, right? It's all over TikTok. Now, mind you, I have never wanted to or ever thought about putting my hands on my son until now, right? Until now. And this is kind of really, and I'm obviously joking around here, but this is kind of where we are right now, okay? We're in a market that a 13-year-old, which my son is, can go on TikTok and see 14-year-olds telling him to buy AMC. And unfortunately, we've only seen this once before. And that was 20 years ago, right? That was during the dot-com bubble. And everybody knows what happens this week. We saw a really dark side of Wall Street and the manipulative side and all the corruption that went along with it, that these brokers, quote-unquote brokers, the Robin Hoods of the world and Ameritrade's of the world, they stopped the buying pressure to let their friends out, basically to let their friends out. Again, that's complete and utter misuse and abuse of the whole system, but that's in the past, right? That's kind of in the past. And I never heard of the word or the website or whatever it is, Wall Street bets till the previous Friday. I had no idea what they were. I didn't know what Reddit was, okay? I didn't know what Dollcoin, right? I learned this morning, somebody asked me what my opinion was on Dollcoin. What the hell is a Dollcoin? And I started thinking about this with all the stuff that's going on here and the outrage that we can't buy GameStop at 400, right? We can't buy GameStop at 500. We can't buy Dollcoin at two cents, whatever it is, a penny. And it really did come to the realization that unfortunately there is a gift in the curse in this type of environment and the gift is incredibly for you. A lot of people are making money. Even if you don't have any skill set, you can make money in this market, right? You can do very, very well. But also what it's doing is creating an early generation of lottery players, okay? It really is. From what I'm seeing is when somebody turns around and says, this is messed up, man. If I wanted to go out and buy one share of GameStop at $450 a share, I should be able to because the stock is going to a thousand. You're absolutely right. You should absolutely have the ability to buy whatever stock you want at any price you want. But the problem is listen to what you're saying. You want to buy a stock, a company that's on the verge of bankruptcy that just went from 20 to 500 and you want to buy it now, right? You want to buy the Dollcoin at a penny, at two pennies now. It's like basically your mindset is setting up and your foundation is set that you are in it to win it at one price at all costs. It's like the Super Bowl started. There's the kickoff, you know, the Kansas City Chiefs get on the field and the first play Andy Reed turns to Patrick Mahomes say, throw a Hail Mary, right? That's exactly what it is. And unfortunately, what this type of environment is creating is not only a generation of gamblers, they're creating a generation that it's all or none in every single trade. That's why when my son turns to me and says, dad, you should buy AMC, it's going higher, right? It's insane, it's absolutely insane. And guys, it took me from the time that I started trading in 99, it took me about 10 to 12 years to feel very comfortable, like really, really comfortable in all the aspects of this business. Having to deal with losses, the emotional side and all that stuff, right? Everything that comes with it. It took me 10 to 12 years after the first trade I ever put on. And people right now, because of the frenzy, I think that's the best way of saying it, they're looking at this market like there's powerball. And if I don't hit the stock all at once with every single last penny of my dollars, then this trade will be a completely disaster. It's completely irrelevant. It's like going into a 7-11, right? On the night that the powerball is about, you know, four or $500 million and you see a line wrapped around the whole store and you see people paying, you know, 40, 50, $100 worth of tickets to play powerball. It's almost not even a gambler's mentality. It's almost a mentality out of desperation, right? This is my one chance. This is my only chance to get any type of money, any type of wealth. And unfortunately, a lot of traders are developing that mentality. What argument can you possibly have? I get it. If you bought GameStop at $40 on that break, right? And it's squeezed up, I get it. When you bought costs at $4 or $5 when it broke out, I get it. But what's the logic that you're buying GameStop right now at $300, $400 a share? And especially, oh, by the way, Robinhood only allows you to buy one share. What is the logic behind this, right? Like literally, what is the thought process behind it? You're buying a bankrupt company, right? You're buying a bankrupt company that's appreciated ridiculously over the last week. Like what is your thought process behind it? And unfortunately, a lot of people, a lot of new traders, they won't even have an answer. And subconsciously, it's almost a sign of help out of desperation because they don't believe they could achieve any type of success in a long-term period of time. We need to hit that Hail Mary. We have to hit that Hail Mary. Please God, let me hit this Hail Mary because this could be my only chance. And folks, if you wanna trade for a living with any type of capacity, and it doesn't mean you need to quit your job and trade full-time Monday through Friday, even if you're trading one day a week, two days a week, have a long-term plan, right? Understand the long-term game, appreciate the journey, appreciate everything that every trader prior to you has gone through, right? It's kinda cool, I get it, right? I get it if you're low on the stock. And again, I think that the greatest thing that happened, a lot of people did become incredibly well-off, right? But those people bought GameStop at 30. They bought GameStop at maybe 40, reached toward 50. And held on, that's fantastic. But the idea of you going back at $300, $400 a share and saying this thing's going to 1,000, at some point you have to get a reality check. And unfortunately, right now, also what I'm seeing is a pretty ugly rationale. It's almost now that a lot of people are saying it's us versus them. It's us versus the establishment. Don't sell, keep on buying. Do you see where I'm going with this, right? You're allowed to buy whatever you want. But buy it responsibly. Buy it technically. Buy it a reason that you can sleep at night, not because some guy on some website and hundreds of other people and thousands of other people all of a sudden have this gang mentality that we're going to buy anything at any price and we're going to push it high. Do you really think that's going to be the case, right? Do you really, really think this market, especially if the market starts cracking and the euphoria goes away and technicals start taking over, do you really think this is sustainable? These are very, very fair questions. Again, I don't know the future. Nobody knows the future. Maybe GameStop goes to 1,000. Well, maybe GameStop goes back to 20, right? And you're along the stock at $350 and you're along the stock at $400 and it can't go by, right? It can't go lower than 250. It can't go lower than 100. No way it breaks 50. There's no way it cracks 20. Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't. But you want to put yourself in a position that you are there for the long term. Again, technical analysis is real. Structure in the market does change, but an environment like this only happened only one time before, guys, and that was 20 years ago. Can you really afford? Can you really sustain where you are right now if an event only comes along once every 20 years? That's something every individual trader, especially the newer trader, could only answer for themselves. But really, when you wake up Monday morning and you kind of decide where you want to allocate your money, right? Just think about it from an adult point of view. Can this be sustainable and can I do this profitably or more responsibly than what I've seen in the prior history of the market leading up to 2020? It's a very, very honest question. So I hope everybody's doing well. I hope everybody's mindset is very, very clean. Stay off of social media for investment advice. That's my first thing I'm telling you. There's plenty of great resources that are free and it will give you some pretty solid advice. But from what I saw now for the last two weeks has been just chaos. I think that's the best way of saying it. And the most important part is always think of what is the worst case scenario? Maybe some of you guys alone two, three shares of GameStop and if it goes to zero, maybe that's not the worst case scenario, but I know some of you guys are long, right? And with a pretty decent allocation of capital and you might want to rethink. So that's just kind of my two cents. Other than that, I have no issue or no desire or no want to ever talk about Wall Street bets, Wall Street pets, whatever the hell they're called, dog coin, cat coin, all that crap. It just doesn't affect my life. And I think the more I thought about this and none of this affects my day to day, but it weighs so much on you mentally, just hearing about it, especially if you have a squawk box every second. GMEs halter for volatility trading, AMC halter for, it's too much, it's absolutely too much. It's a great, so far right now it's been a pretty good market, very solid moves. Stay focused, stay focused, leave the circus behind and most important thing, stay in business. So let's talk about reality, right? Let's talk about kind of reality of where we are right now. So if you watched the video on Thursday night, we talked about this little baby line in the sand here 317, well that little baby line in the sand got hit, right? Got hit and we went all the way back down to this 314, 313 level, which is this rising support here. Everybody see that? And so far we've held this rising support, right? We've held it here, we've held it here, we've held it here and kind of all over the place. And so far we held it here. And the one common denominator that we're seeing right now is real mega cap tech companies are being sold off. So if you look at the earnings season and we're 25% in right now, Intel came out with some pretty good earnings and they got sold. IBM came out with crappy earnings and they got sold. Apple came out with some really good earnings and they got sold. Netflix came out with some pretty good earnings and they got sold. Facebook came out, right? On and on and on and on, Microsoft, on and on and on. So the moral of the story is right now in the real world, right? Not the dull coin or cat coin or the parrot world, right? These companies are being sold, okay? And this has been a very historical run for the stock market for the last four years or so. And it's hard to imagine, and we've been saying this for months and months and months now, it's very hard to imagine that eventually, and again, we don't know if it's gonna happen on Monday, a back test, a very aggressive back test is going to come. Now, when you look at the cues on the broader scale of it, nothing will happen, no technical damage will happen, until we start getting below the 305 level. Now, why is that 305 level important? Because you could see here how many times it stopped and the rising Bollinger Band is 305. So for all macro investors, and this isn't the first time you heard me use this area, but that 305 level is going to be a big, huge macro line in the sand. Is it possible we never have this conversation about 305? Again, yes. Is it possible we turn around on Monday, start going back higher? Absolutely, everything's all possible. But our goal here is not to put a fear-mongering effect into the universe. Our goal here is to make sure that everybody is conscious of technical levels that if they start breaking down, we'll have a very aggressive effect. So if you look at the indexes this week, we saw over 3% declines all across the board despite this euphoria, right? And when you look at the stock market as a whole from the euphoric channel compared to reality, what we saw Friday, for example, in my opinion, was one of the telltale signs of what could happen next. There is no worse group than the septic tank of the stock market than the shippers, right? I think everybody could attest to that. And what we started seeing on Friday were shippers popping. They didn't last, they got sold off, but it's always the septic tank that always has the last run. And I talked about this a lot, especially in the webinar over this week and despite the really, really good action, that the chicken without a head effect, right? When you cut the chickens off and it still runs around, it's kind of what we're seeing right now. And it's really playing out to where we're in on the technical side. So for example, we know the line in the sand on the cues. And if you start talking about speculation money, well, the IWM is the total epitome of what speculation money is. And this is the first time in a channel that went all the way back to about September of 2020, that this is the first time that we close below this whole rise in wedge. So this is not even more of an opinion of what happens next or potentially could happen next. Now this is your time to turn around and say, well, what the hell did I have learned now in the last three, four years of this market? Does the market go up all the time? It feels like it, right? Sure, it's how it looks like it. But now you're looking at an area that you can clearly see. And if I get, if all you guys have been trading pivots with me for the north part of about 11 years, you kind of know what happens when stocks confirm and stocks go from demand to demand. And this is the first time since September, we saw a close below this whole rising wedge. And if you believe in the theory that stocks go from supply to supply, and then you have to believe that stocks go from demand all the way to demand to 195. So you're talking about a $10 move potential in the IWM and since a lot of these stocks, whether they're EVs or whatever they are, whatever the speculation play is, Russell, right? Russell will represent the speculation money. So if the speculation money as a whole gets pulled, as good as a setup could look for you, it's very, very tough to find that quote unquote diamond in the rough, what a potentially of sea of selling occurs. And just again, for the record, I'm not talking about disaster, you know, we're just talking about market structure, very, very basic organic market structure. So if we have a reclaim or if the sellers reclaim this 204, 205 level on the IWM, everything that you've seen, everything that you've traded at everything that realistically has gone up in a very furious pace, there's a high probability we'll start pulling back just because technical analysis does work and it works very, very well. Now, Greta, if you believe in the whole astrology is great, you know, maybe fundamental analysis is great, not when technical damage occurs, right? The fact that you're a Sagittarius or a Capricorn doesn't mean your stock is gonna hold up, that I can promise you. And what we're looking for going into next week, and I went through a lot of charts this morning, I'm talking about a lot. Are there 400 stocks that look like you're about to break down? No, there's not. There's a lot of value, though, into the downside. The one thing that I didn't see was a lot of value was to the upside. Now, if you're in a euphoric market and you start seeing cracks in the armor and you start seeing lack of aggressive potential to the upside, and oh, by the way, you see potential of confirmation of technical damage in the IWM, you have to be an adult and really start trading on both sides of the market. And I've said this for years. God gave you two eyes, two hands, two feet, right? The market gods are giving you the potential to trade on both sides of the market. And if you are believing in the theory of stocks will go up eventually, says who? Right, these are fair points. This is not something that I'm trying to convey a message the market's gonna implode on Monday. We're not talking about that. We're just wanting everybody to have the idea of what potentially could happen before your money goes away, right? So you have the IWM just needs to confirm on Monday and this thing has $10 worth of downside. When you look at the SPY, right? Look at the SPY did. SPY did went all the way to the back of the 50 day moving average and it held for now. Now what happens if the SPY starts building below 368? Look how much room you have to the downside. So be aware of these levels, right? There's no breakouts. I see new traders talking about this all the time. This one's breaking out. This one looks like a break. Nothing breaks out when the market goes out, okay? You have to be an incredibly good soul from another lifetime for your stock to aggressively break out if everything starts going to hell in a hand basket. And these are facts, right? These are just facts. So the idea that there is a potential in the market, again, you could turn around and say this guy is an idiot. I'm never gonna watch his broadcast. Okay, it's fine. I mean, if that's your point of view, you shouldn't be watching me in the first place. But if you do believe in technical analysis, just look where the SPY is, right? Just look where the IWM is. Q's a little bit far away. Q's we might have a little bit more, maybe a little bit more lifeline before they start accumulating technical damage. But the proof is in the pudding. The big names on Wall Street, the mega tech stocks have been sold. Now Tuesday, you have Amazon, you have Google. Who else do you have on Tuesday? You have Amazon, Google. Who else do you got? Who else do you got? You got Pfizer, you have Alibaba, you have Chipotle. Maybe they'll be surprised, right? I mean, is there anybody that's gonna turn around right now and say it says Amazon's gonna miss their number? They could hit their number and still go down. You know, a lot of call buying going on in the name the 34, 35, 36, 3700 for this week. But does that translate in for the stock to go up 300, 400 points? If they announce a split, right? Cross your fingers, maybe that happens. But you can't rely on that. And you saw what happened to stocks that had slam dunk earnings. And this is kind of where we start talking about some ideas for this week. I mean, look at Tesla. Everybody knows I love Tesla. I love trading it long, I love trading it short. But look at Tesla's chart and look at the IWM's chart and look at the spies chart. Don't they give you kind of a mirror image of what's going on right now? Aren't they kind of complimenting of what's happening, especially in all the stocks that got hit after earnings? So look at Tesla, right? They closed the first close. And this is the first close. Keep this in mind, just like the IWM was. This is the first close below this whole rising wedge since let's go back, since let's go back till right here, right? September the 24th, something about September, right? So if Tesla starts confirming down below this price action right here, look how much room you have down. The 50-day moving average is a 690. And if there's a buyer strike, just take a look. Look at Roku, right? Roku had a huge run, magnificent run. And so far, held the bottom here twice. Now what happens if that bottom gets violated, right? You could only hold the bottom several times. That's what she said, right? What if any close below this area, look how much room you have down to the downside? Look at Baidu, right? Baidu had a monster, monster run. Huge run, epic run, right? Held the bottom of the range here three times. What happens if this candle gets confirmed? Look how much room you have to the downside. So there's a couple of examples. And again, I really encourage every single trader to start looking at charts and start collecting data. And all I'm saying going into the next week, and again, who knows? Maybe the market turns around and goes back higher. God forbid, what's the worst case scenario? I buy stocks, right? It's crazy, isn't it? But look at the data. Stocks are being sold, right? On earnings. You have the shippers, chicken would add a head scenario. You have the IWM closing below the channel the first time since September of 2020. And oh, by the way, now there's a revolt us versus them in the Wall Street. Hold the line. We're going to keep on buying until the end. That's on you. So kind of a message going into the Monday morning, okay? And I know a lot of you guys are very young, very eager. It's us versus them. F the brokers, F this, F that. You know, game stops going with a thousand. Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't. But once you start seeing my 13 year old son telling me, dad, AMC is on TikTok. You know there's a problem. Guys, stay safe. God bless. And I hope everybody has a wonderful, safe and prosperous week. Take care guys. Have a great week.