 Okay, hello and good morning. Hope you had a fantastic weekend and before I begin Don't forget to like and subscribe to the channel if you want to keep up to speed with our outlook every Monday morning But one of the main things we're looking out for this week Of course is my man Jay Powell is going to be given the Jackson Hole symposium speech on Friday and that's really gonna draw much of the main focus for this week and the reason for that is because this is one of the main platforms outside of the preset kind of eight scheduled FOMC meetings per year when the Fed chair gets to give an update on the economic climate and If needed give some further clarity and guidance towards what policy could look like in the future and of course everyone's Waiting to see what the Fed are gonna do in September and whether or not they'll pull the trigger on a third Consecutive 75 basis point rate hike But we'll talk about that a little bit more in a moment gonna kick things off and talk about Commodities starting off with gold which as you can see here is at a three week low as Fed officials Riterate their hawkishness the latest being Barkin who I must stress is a non voting member That has said will curb inflation even at the risk of recession and comes on a string of also Subsequent hawkish comments that we heard from a variety of Fed officials last week The debate really is between how aggressive do they tighten going forward ie 75 or 50? But we have seen that then translate into this divergence Traditionally as what we tend to see which is dollar strength on the premise of further Fed tightening to get on top of inflation and As a consequence then the yellow metal gold has been declining and as we can see from the stats here Holdings in Boolean backed ETFs have dropped for a 10th straight week at the moment this moment in time with gold this morning trading firmly below 1750 an ounce elsewhere on the commodity space oil resumes dropped WTI crew this morning training back below a $90 handle the possible return of Iranian supply in focus and a lot of that comes as US President Biden Last night on Sundays spoke with leaders from France Germany in the UK about reviving that nuclear cord Whether or not that happens still I'm not so sure seems like we've been here many times before and it's always stumbled at the final hurdle Last week we heard Goldman Sachs say Irrespective of whether or not they get a deal done that doesn't mean we're gonna get an instant immediate supply flush from Iran because it's gonna take somewhat up to 12 months or so before they can really start pulling that lever and Pumping to that magnitude. However, analysts at the Dutch Bank RNG. I read this morning We're saying that potentially Iran could tap into their current existing storage and infantry And therefore that could add a little bit of a bump to the supply situation And of course all of this comes as crude oil has been declining south for some time This isn't a new pattern predominantly on the back of the weakening of demand on the global picture at the moment And of course the key component of that has been China and one thing to be aware of over the weekend It's the Chinese province of shish sheswan, which approximately has a population size around 80 million So that is bigger than Britain just to give it some context They've extended industrial power cuts. They've activated its highest emergency response on Sunday Due to electricity supply deficiencies This is having impact on the performance of allowing Factories to operate and that's compounding further fears of economic weakness in China and all of this to do is extreme heat That they're experiencing at the moment So as we saw remember last week surprise rate cuts from the PBOC the Chinese Central Bank Lots of economic data points showing real pressure and we saw a number of Wall Street banks Downgrading their calls for economic growth Figures for this year and next year in China way shorter than what the state government of Beijing are Anticipating at this point in time that continues to be the kind of picture that's weighing on Crude oil for the time being but as I said drone power is is the main event of this week It's not going to come until 3 p.m. On Friday when he speaks at Jackson Hole for the keynote speech He's expected to restate the Fed's resolve to keep raising interest rates to get inflation back under control But he's probably going to stop short of signaling on how big the Fed officials will go next month One of the key things here not to forget is we're still 30 days out or so from the next FMC meetings Of course a lot can happen from a scheduled point of view. There are two important things One is the August jobs report is due to be published on the 2nd of September And then we'll get the August inflation report on the 13th of September as well These will be very crucial inputs for that decision-making process at the Fed and what they're going to do at that point in time one thing I was looking at this morning was this and this was basically looking at the fact that Fed shares Jackson Hole's speech has not been a big market mover in recent years This is just looking at the SMP Percentage fluctuation kind of change in a day He gives a speech and you can see here on an average basis tends to have an impact value of probably around 0.4% on average going back over the last 10 years So that's pretty tame and actually options positioning shows traders expect to 1.4% Move in the S&P 500 on Friday when he gives his speech That's only slightly above the expected 1% daily move options are implying for stocks over the next month So again for those aforementioned reasons of this being a little bit perhaps too far out to make Definitive judgments and what the Fed are going to do at their next meeting meaning that markets remain relatively calm at this point despite the Kind of importance of that speech. He's going to give nonetheless. We'll be watching very closely, of course from a data perspective We really kick off things on Tuesday this week, and that's because we get the various flash PMIs for August And well, excuse me. Yeah for August just double-checking there But what we're going to see is Eurozone Economy is likely to continue to deepen in terms of it's just general perception of his economic woes The flash eurozone PMI's forecast to drop from forty nine point nine to forty nine point five I don't think that comes as a whole Great deal of a surprise and one of the things it probably does do though It's just fit the narrative of the fact that we are heading for a recession there from the US perspective Durable goods on Wednesday initial jobless claims and the second reading of US GDP on Thursday alongside German IFO as well Which is the business sentiment kind of survey another important reading But also likely to deteriorate from the prior month and on Friday Alongside power you get the core PC numbers which are very important in the US Of course and the reason why is because that's the preferred measure of inflation for the Fed and in fact is Expected to have called in July the core reading is expected to come in at point three percent from the prior reading of zero Point six and that follows last month loan and expected CPI report that we saw and also An unexpected decline in producer prices PPI so this idea of are we at the point of peak inflation? What does that now look like in terms of the more broad based? Measurements of which the Fed will be looking at to make those decisions come the September FMC meeting From a stocks perspective just quickly Continued shake-ups of course at Credit Suisse as they look to get their house in order They've now appointed a couple of people for one They've hired Deutsche Bank's Dixit Joshi as their CFO and they've promoted internally McDonough as their chief operating officer This comes just a month or so after they appointed Eric Cooner as their new latest chief executive and then for Vodafone in the FTSE a fairly large deal there to sell It's Hungarian business for 1.8 billion US dollars in cash That's to the Hungarian for IG and state-run Covunas cert company But that is it for the outlet for the week ahead so plenty of US data points to get your teeth into Book ended with Jerome Powell on Friday Any questions at all feel free to drop me a comment below and have yourself a great week ahead. Take care