 Welcome, traders, to the first live trade analysis session of 2022 with me, Patrick Mone. If you can hear me and you can see me welcome screaming, type of wire in the chat box, so I know we are good to go. Great stuff, okay, so before we jump into today's session, first and foremost, I want to add here to the risk disclaimer, most importantly for today's session, the views expressed by me today are solely mine, they're not indicative of or representative of those held by Tickmill UK or Tickmill Europe Limited. Before I jump into the presentation, just a bit of housekeeping in terms of any questions you might have, if you have a question regarding a chart that I review, or you'd like me to take a little bit of chart that I don't review my deck, if you can make a note of those or drop them into the Q&A, I won't answer them in real time, but at the end of the presentation, I'll go back and check back on the questions and cover them all off before we close out the presentation. So for those of you who are here for the first time, brief introduction to myself. Like I said, my name is Patrick Monely and after I graduated from King's College London, I joined the City PLC Consulting firm, left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup which was focused on C-Suite Executive Search for Technology Businesses. I essentially had a front row seat to the dot-com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the markets, sometimes quite literally overnight. So I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands, I started day trading the S&P 500, or probably more appropriately day gambling, and after some early beginners' luck, I managed to rack up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginners' luck ran out and as the market phase changed, I began to average down into what would become pretty significant losing positions, giving back all my gains and ultimately taking a six-figure hit on my personal capital. To say this was a gut-wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years, it was a time during which I had not just my technical game in terms of research and developing, sensibly back and forward testing strategies that crucially suited my personality and all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly, during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game. And probably most importantly of all, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal-orientated individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process-orientated. So what are the implications of that and what does that mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing slowly on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process-orientated and you have a professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading being simply a numbers game in which you're playing the probabilities, you lose the emotional investment and that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. So I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a small string of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades because I know my focus on excellence and execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've been managing investor capital through a managed account service, again, delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multimillion dollar portfolio. Since 2010, I've meant to have hundreds of private traders of all experienced levels, from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to read consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring and the resident market expert for Tick Mill exclusively providing market and trade analysis. I provide an in-depth daily market outlook, breaking down the fundamental and technical drivers for the day ahead. I also provide technical trade setup videos for three to five markets per day through the Tick Mill Trading View accounts. I also most recently run Tick Mill's rapidly growing E-mini strategy Facebook group where I post a daily video outlining my pre-market trade plan for the cash trading session ahead. I give my bias for the day ahead and specific action areas where I'm looking to engage the markets. These pre-market plans have delivered over 1800 points of profits since we launched the group April last year. The second strategy group I run for Tick Mill is for traders who really want to take their trading to the next level. The Tick Mill Futures Trading Telegram Group is a real time environment where on a daily basis I share in-depth insights, analysis and trades. I also live stream during the opening hour of the cash session from New York where traders can essentially look over my shoulder and watch in real time as I dissect the markets and identify asymmetric trading opportunities. These live trade sessions essentially act as a platform helping you to develop a professional consistent approach to navigating the markets and obviously the mental mind games that have to be mastered for you to make it as a professional trader. So that gives you a flavour of where it is I'm coming from. What we're going to do now is jump in to the charts. Actually what I'll do first of all there are a few links just with regards to what I was covering there. One of those is the Tick Mill Futures Facebook group. That's a free service. All you have to do is request access to the group and you can follow along with my daily trade plans. For those that are interested in learning more about the Telegram group I'll post my LinkedIn profile there and you can direct message me for further information regarding that service. Okay so let's most importantly now jump into the charts. We're going to work on the daily time frames today. A bunch of what I perceive to be swing trading opportunities developing. We're going to start with the S&P 500. I'm trading the E-mini futures contract with front month continuous futures contract but you can just adjust this if you're trading the S&P spot contract through an MC4 provider. So you just have to adjust the levels for the spread. So with respect to the S&P here we make any more time highs into the start of the year. You'll remember for those who were involved or were involved in these sessions at the back end of last year I had long positions running from this last pullback and took out a good chunk of profits on those and essentially covered those positions or got taken out on trailing stops into the beginning of this week. And then we started to notice that there's some pretty significant divergence developing here. And so we were starting to lean towards the short side in terms of the groups that I run and the signals I provide. We had short setups in the S&P 500 or the E-minis. We also had similar and as that we'll talk about that in a minute. But with respect to these E-minis I think we are potentially going to complete the first leg to the downside. And just for this product to learn I'm going to open up the hourly chart and show you exactly what it is I'm talking about. This is a five-wave sequence developing here and I'm looking for prices to test into the 4640 area to complete that initial five-wave sequence. From there what I'd be anticipating is that we get momentum divergence develop here. So what I'd anticipate is that the psych indicator here rolling into resistance we get the psych indicator pulling back down as price makes a new low into that support zone. But what we'll be watching for is for the momentum study here to fail to make new lows and to set up a divergent move and then that will allow for prices to correct versus this swing here and ideally we'll get a move back into this 4750, 4747 area and then from there what I'll be watching for is bearish reversal patterns again to get back in on the short side to play for another leg of corrective action to the downside. So that's pretty specific levels to pay attention to. Got daily and weekly projected range support just below that psychological 4650 area. So just as the market gets really bearish here on this decline I think we have the potential for a snapback before then getting the next leg to the downside. So pay attention to those levels if this current overlay continues to map as I anticipate it will do. So back to the daily charts. So that's the S&P 500. I'm ultimately looking for prices to take out potentially take out trend line support here through the 4615 and then get a test back down into 4530s. It's going to be a pivotal level. We've got projected monthly range support 4497 and then from there we might get a more protracted corrective phase but certainly we're looking weak here as we open up the year. So the NASDAQ, this is a position I'm running at the moment and again gave this trade in the telegram group live yesterday. I identified a pattern here that I play pretty regularly. We got this double top and we got an outside rejection candle the day before yesterday and then we have since extended to the downside and running about 250 points of profit in this. I'm looking for a test of the trend line support here and the monthly projected range support down 15420. From there we could see a bit of a pop but ultimately I'm looking for us to test into 1449 here is the key level I'm looking for on this position trade. So we'll see how that plays out. I want to pay close attention to how price responds at the trend line but if we think about the test on this trend line we're looking at multiple, multiple tests now and for those that have worked with me for a while you'll know that after the third test of the trend line I'm pretty much looking for it to give way. So this trend line looks to be weakening to my mind and we should erode it in time and get a nice drift to the downside. Chill out here that I don't often talk about but it's relevant given what we're seeing in terms of liquidity drying up from the Fed. This is the ARC Innovation Fund run by renowned hedge fund manager Kathy Wood. It has been rolling over pretty heavily. I talked about this a couple of times last year where we start to see weakness develop. I'm looking now for this to actually test down into the 70 handle now from there if we get this move then we could see a decent pot there back up into the $100 figure and then we'll see how price responds there but certainly we want to pay attention to how we trade at the 70 handle. We're currently trading $86 in that fund and the reason why I'm pulling this up to you guys is it's got a similar momentum play as to the NASDAQ. Obviously the NASDAQ is a little bit more broad weighted and we have some idiosyncratic members of the ARC Fund but essentially this move that we've seen or the move that we saw in this ARC Innovation Fund was predominantly driven by Fed liquidity and as that started to dry up we're starting to see weakness develop and that's a similar story to the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ is far more yield sensitive so if we are going to see yields take a pop in terms of the US and don't get me wrong I'm certainly not loading the boat here in terms of playing one side or the other I'm very much trading the market I'm not looking to take on lifelong positions here or get married to positions I can see very easily a path where the current view on inflation and the fact that the Fed got it wrong with it being transitory and that we're going into hyperinflation phase could actually reverse pretty quickly based upon just the pandemic moving from pandemic to endemic as such then what's the growth scenario the growth picture etc so it's important not to get sucked into a narrative remember we're three days into the trading year here and suddenly everyone is on one side of the boat and historically when that happens what we tend to see especially if you think about last year came into the year and the narrative being pushed the beginning of the year was we were going into an epic phase of dollar weakness and lo and behold that didn't play out at all and we actually saw the dollar making decent bid last year and so this year we're coming in and traders are heavily positioned now for this dollar move to extend and if you look at positioning data we're sitting up around those 2018 highs the last time the Fed thought they were going to make a move in terms of rates and we didn't really see that transpire and so just a word of caution in terms of especially as we're in these first few weeks of the year there's a common effect called the January effect whereby we can often see some pretty pivotal highs and lows posted in January so just keep a flexible mindset it's my advice and don't get married to any market narratives being pushed in these early parts of the year so yeah the ARK Innovation Fund now it's that kind of link and I'd like to pay attention to that dynamic Dow Jones looking at potential broadening top scenario here got a test yesterday Dow ironically strongest out of the the industries at the moment obviously it's a little bit more value orientated as opposed to growth obviously growth was you know booming during the Fed liquidity and now when you have people moving to safety you get you tend to see the Dow go a little bit better but well ultimately if these equity markets are rolling over we'll tend to down with it might just be a bit of a slower grind for the Dow this time round the DAX looking at potential double top here yeah what we'll pay attention to this scenario is what is what's the momentum saying the momentum is telling us that this is this is starting to struggle here the DAX well all I'm waiting for here will be the momentum to to flip bearish and I think we have a move down in the DAX to get back into 14,364 and then from there we might try and stabilize and get another push to the upside obviously that scenario will be wrong when I close back through 16,400 and then we'll start to pay attention to can we get up into the trend line resistance and how does price respond there the DAX this is another position I'm running at the moment shared in the telegram group had a couple of entries I was looking for a few more I didn't want to see the DAX down into this real sweet spot here at the 15 handle didn't get that but I got fills in terms of 18 and 17 so I've got a 17,50 break even position running at the moment and we'll see now what this fix is going to do obviously the VIX people refer to it as a fear gauge when we see weakness in terms of equity markets we see strength in the VIX or we see strength in the equity markets we tend to see the VIX trading lower and what you the old adage for traders is by protection when you can not when you have to so every time and I've highlighted this trade a bunch of times every time we get down into this this demand zone here in terms of VIX it's always been a fairly decent trade to play to start acquiring low exposure in the VIX and it looks to be working again and so we'll see how that one plays out now let's move into the all important tenure notes here these are obviously driving a lot of the market action at the moment so what we have what I've been tracking here is a big quality objective so versus the highs that we saw here we have this swing structure here into the 135-60 so I'm looking for 125-19s to ultimately trade before we see a meaningful correction so let me move now into this S3 zone we can see a part back into these prior lows here 129-20s but ultimately we want to see this this 125-19 test and then from there we may see a pretty decent bounce in terms of the the notes so obviously the notes trade price so as the price declines the yield increases so if we look at the yield here we're trying to make a breakout in terms of the yield of trend line resistance coming in just about 2.2% in terms of in terms of the 10-year yield if we zoom out here I'll show you what I've been tracking so what I'm anticipating is that we're kind of in this we've broken out here and I'm looking for yields to extend to make new highs but 127 extension there before we saw a pullback so we're going to 127 extension here at 216 trend line 220s and to be honest with you you know if that move plays out let's say into the March meeting whereby you know that yesterday the pricing for the March futures contract moved to an 80% chance we would see a rate move at that meeting again when the market gets loaded up in one direction more often than not there's a meaningful shakeout and so any any test of 2% or just above 2% could well be the high that we see for the year in terms of yields is a possibility equally we could fail here on the test back through that once 1.78 and we could be back down here testing the trend line before trying to make another run so again just don't get married to this view it's very popular moments the narrative that's been pushed by by a lot of deaths that you know we're going to see a yield explosion could we could well see that but we want the price to really start to to track in this type of scenario to to encourage that view to my mind dollar index obviously a beneficiary of any any move in yields or it should be as as the dollar is considered to to drive drive returns there what I'm looking for ultimately in the dollar is I'm looking for one more high and I'm going to be looking to fade that high I'm looking for a move into the 98 handle here that's a 61.8% retracement of the entire decline prior to this this move to the upside certainly from there I'll be watching for bearish reversal patterns do something on the short side at least looking for a move back into 95.50 if we take out this trend line then look out below because this correction could be over in terms of the dollar but if we hold that then again we want to think about the next leg to the upside in terms of the dollar index but for now that's going to be the key area to watch this 98.40s in terms of the dollar as we head into the early part of this year gold the never ending triangle trade here in terms of gold I'm watching for any move down into monthly projected range support 17.53 is level to pay attention to 17.50 bullish reversal patterns there and I think this could turn that to be a bear trap and looking for an extension back through the trend line resistance and up into the 1900 area and and beyond to 1950 obviously we take out the trend line on a closing basis all bets are off and I think we'll be back down taking a look at 16.80 pretty quickly in terms of gold silver now silver has a nice nice potential wedge pattern developing here and I'm going to be watching how we trade if we're going to test here into the 20 dollar handle and I think that could be an opportunity to play for a correction in terms of silver or maybe quite a meaningful low in place there for silver so watching that 20 dollar level and the wedge scenario to potentially play out crude oil testing some key levels here if we can if we hold below 80 I can easily see another leg to the downside in terms of crude back into the 55 it's high volume node for the that entire advance off the pandemic lows there so let's see this this area is going to be pivotal if we fail here watch for bearish reversal patterns I think that's an opportunity for for another leg to the downside before we try and make a meaningful correction in terms of crude again common narrative at the moment is this commodity super cycle which was really the story of last year but I just heard this morning Jeff Curry the the golden guy back on the line talking about that more often than not when you get these big investment banks pushing that type of narrative it's because they're either looking to release inventory or acquire inventory so when they're talking about this commodity super cycle I'm just wondering they've got too much inventory on their books and they're looking to offload some exposure so that's uh something to pay attention to bitcoin and a uh a rough old time of things I'm looking for a test of 40,600 this is the major ascending trendline support that'd be the third test watch for bullish reversal patterns there we'd get through this trend line back through 48,000 then we could see an attempt to the upside here if we let go through the trend line on a closing basis stand the side because we will be back trading below 30,000 in quite a clip to my mind anyway so as approaching some key levels here in in the bitcoin ethereum I think it's got more work to do at the moment on the downside you can see we are trading into the 61.878.6 extension from this swing high here so likely some consolidation there but ultimately I think we test 2900 which is the equality objective versus the swing structure from 41.88 then we'll see what we can do from there maybe we've got to take a look at trendline support down to 23.36 before we're going to see any meaningful stabilization there but there's certainly at this stage for these cryptos a bit of the well quite a lot of profit is coming out of the market and I shared in the telegram group this morning we're not seeing institutional money flow that or the institutional money flow that was anticipated certainly isn't isn't in play at the moment now that can change obviously quickly and if you do get that institutional flows coming in then this this can turn around pretty quickly but at the moment we're not seeing that in the flow data and so there's certainly no rush to be jumping in in terms of the crypto space at the moment Dolly yeah let's look at some of these FX majors so Dolly yeah is is testing the 127 extension of the last leg to the downside natural area of think for for a pause but ultimately what I'm looking for with this Dolly yeah now is if we can get this type of scenario so we have our one two there's our three four and a fifth wave extension up into the equality objective versus the swing low here 10867s and that will kind of tie in with you know the Dolly yeah tends to have a correlation with yields so that push up in yields I mean I think from there we could see a more meaningful pull back in terms of the Dolly yeah but for now was we was to be hold above the the 11550 I think we've got more room to run on the upside in terms of Dolly yeah dollar CAD this one's got a bit of work to do before it gets interesting for me but certainly if we get back down into this yearly pivot 125 I think we've got a shot moonshot there at 132 which is the equality objective versus this swing structure here and the 12290s low so keeping an eye on that nothing to do with immediately Euro dollar tracking this wedge now so similar to the the dollar index I'm looking for one more wash out here in terms of the Euro dollar similar similarly obviously the dollar index I'm looking for one more high this 78.6% retracement is the key level to watch 110 just above 110 if we see buyers stepping in on any flush here I think we could have a meaningful low in place in terms of the dollar you'll know I shared that weekly chart which shows similarities between the 0102 phase of the Euro dollar and what we're looking at at the moment this 78.6% 78.6% area is going to be key we've got a weekly trend line coming in there as well if we take that out on a closing basis certainly on a weekly closing basis that could that could be a sign of something quite significant but for now this is going to be the focus and if we can if we can find support there I think we could be in for for a new phase in terms of the Euro dollar Euro sterling looking for it to test the descending trend line third test here so if we can get a test below or just above 83 watch for bullish reversal patterns there I think we're going to wash out move to the upside take out some of the shorts here back into 87.40 which is the major descending trend line resistance this one I'm paying close attention to it could be a decent swing trade there similarly with sterling looking for sterling to get into the trend line resistance here 135.20s no sorry 136.20s got the yearly pivot there as well weekly range resistance watch for bearish reversal patterns there we've still got an open target versus the 138.38 high an equality ejected down to 130 and we've got the high volume load there so if we if we can get in there then maybe that's the area where sterling can put in a more meaningful move obviously if we close through trend line resistance then we want to start to think about pullbacks and extensions to the upside sterling Ozzy one of my favorite setups is the quality objectives that complete into double or triple tops and we've got one here versus this swing low 183.86s so we have a potential five wave sequence here that could complete into a double top 191.69s and we watch for divergence here as an opportunity to do something on the short side and I'd be thinking about the yearly pivot here back down into 184 and the ascending trend line support third test and then from there maybe we mount something more serious on the upside but pay certainly want to pay close attention to this potential double top sterling Yen similar scenario here I've got a five wave sequence just take out these prior highs into the ascending trend line resistance just at 160s what's bearish reversal bands there I think we get back down into the apex of this consolidation zone back into 154 would be what I've been watching for sterling Kiwi this is one that I was tracking let's see where we close today if I'm going to close back below the trend line then maybe we're done here for now if we don't and we take out the trend line and we get up into let's say the 202 60s and you pull back to the trend line we'll be buying opportunities for an extension higher this was good trade from last year the inverse seven shoulders and running about running there 400 plus pips of profit there the Aussie ultimately I'm looking for the Aussie to test this quality objective versus the swing high here at the 75 60 area gives us 66 60s and so if you think about that dollar CAD these got these pairs off and trade inversely that that would have that 132 tests with a dollar CAD so let's see we're in an area here where we could we could be looking at double correction so we do this get back into that trend line and then get that move or we take out let's just draw this in we take out this trend line the S3 the weekly projected range sport coming in 71 30s got momentum rolling over bearish here if we do that then it could be that the move is already starting but my senses we're probably we're probably looking at a double correction there for now in the Aussie Aussie yen nothing for me to do there at the moment let's just look the Kiwi Kiwi similar scenario to the Aussie we've got a 65 55 target on the Kiwi versus the swing high here at 72 23 now if we take out the 66 90s then I think we're heading there pretty much in a straight line will be the scenario but whilst we hold support here 67 40s again potential we do a double before then rolling over to ultimately get that test before we make a more sustained correction so that's a whistle stop tool so to speak of what it is I'm looking at as we head into the opening few weeks here of the new trading year a close attention to these equities I think there are some great opportunities there and some of these metals also have opportunities and then those those FX majors that I've just highlighted certainly keep an eye on that euro sterling I think that could be really decent opportunity in the coming sessions like that setup and the euro sterling Aussie quality objective into a double top love that as long as we get some nice momentum divergence so are there any questions or would anyone like me to take a look at the chart I haven't covered just type the name into the chat box or the Q&A box equally if you don't have a question and end in the chat box is just as useful as as I know we're on the same page and and we can wrap this up thanks Ben the links I've posted there one other link I'll post actually that this will allow you to to keep up to speed with the trades in between these weekly sessions you can subscribe sorry not subscribe you can follow the tickmail trading view trade ideas account there and you'll get updates on a daily basis of the trades that I'm tracking and and taking okay guys I'm going to wrap this session up here as always traders plan the trade trade the plan most importantly manage your risk until next week thanks very much