 Welcome to New America. My name is Andres Martinez. I am the editorial director and vice president here at New America and thank you for coming. I'm very excited to have a conversation about Mexico today and a lot of the recent developments in Mexico and how Mexico is going through a period of very interesting transition with two people who are incredibly well qualified to speak to the latest in Mexico and what it means for the bilateral relationship and for the future of North America as well as for the Mexican people who have endured a period of 20 years now since NAFTA went into effect of wrenching change. Much of it positive, some of it very dislocating and with some negative costs associated to it and of course the security picture that we've all heard about so much. So I just want to quickly introduce Shannon O'Neill who's a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and the author of Two Nations Indivisible Mexico the U.S. and the Road Ahead and to her right Alfredo Corchado who's a Bureau Chief for the Dallas Morning News in Mexico City and the author of You Can Hold It Up Midnight in Mexico. So I have to say I'm always I'm often frustrated when I read coverage of Mexico in American media and even books that come out and we're very fortunate that this year we had two great books come out on about Mexico written by our two guests today earlier this year and so we have the books available and Shannon and Alfredo would be happy to sign them for you as well. Just a quick personal note I grew up in Chihuahua in northern Mexico and I had the privilege of going back there in May. I was invited to give a talk at the University and I hadn't been to Chihuahua in a number of years but I get to Mexico City more often and I was just amazed at how the city of Chihuahua which is about a four-hour drive as many of you probably know south of El Paso Texas it's the capital of the state of Chihuahua so I grew up in Chihuahua Chihuahua and I was amazed at how much the city has grown and prospered and I used to go to a school that was sort of on the edge of the city behind which was just an open Sierra and now behind that you keep going and there's a Wendy's and there's a Chili's and then you hit another highway and there's a whole part of the city that didn't exist when I was a kid and okay I'm not too young but I'm also not that old and that whole part of the city looks like you know Houston or something it's just it's just boomed unbelievably at the same time though you know talking to friends that I hadn't seen in many years that I went to junior high with it was very sad to hear you know them say that you know the childhood of their kids is so different from the childhood we had just because you know as as you all probably know the state of Chihuahua has been racked by you know by violence in the last decade plus with the drug war it's you know situated right in the place where Ciahuatis is the other big city in the state of Chihuahua the border city that's been sort of in the front lines of the drug war so the security situation in the city I grew up in has been horrific for years now and it's you know when I was a kid it was an incredibly tranquil place I mean there was a drug trade and you know people knew that in the Sierra things were happening but this city you know but that was a different era and the city was was very tranquil and when I was a kid we would hop on buses and go downtown and you know parents never worried about where we were or anything it's so different but I was struck at how these these sort of two phenomenon and changes that I was aware of on this people were talking about crime and security and yet the economic growth that was palpable and and the commerce that was available to people now as opposed to when I was a kid I think those those speak to sort of some of the twin realities that we wrestle with in the States when we try to make sense of what's happening in Mexico this place that in some ways has become this you know nation that's become incredibly vulnerable to organized crime but there's also this story about the explosion of the middle class and economic development which has its its flaws and it isn't it hasn't been a perfect transition but these two narratives are sometimes hard for us to reconcile and in the last you know five years or so I felt that the coverage in the American media of Mexico might have been too negative and it'd been to sort of one-sided and I think there's been a big corrective of in that in the last year or so I think starting with the election last year to apply right now I some days worry that maybe the view is too rosy-eyed there was a there was a good front page story in the New York Times on Sunday which suggests that you know Mexico is now the land of opportunity and and anybody who was born in Mexico should return and migrants should go to Mexico and so I feel like maybe I should go back and open a taqueria or something taqueria Nueva América right but before doing so I was really eager to have this event so but it's enough about me but that's that's kind of where I'm coming at this and as I wrestle with these twin narratives of Mexico I find that the work of both Shannon and Fredo has is really at the forefront of some of the more nuanced wisest commentary on Mexico and all that said I hope the two of you will disagree on on a few matters but Shannon maybe we should start with you in terms of talking about the economic transformation that's occurred in Mexico since NAFTA which is you know we're coming up on the 20th anniversary and against that backdrop we have the election of Enrique Peña Nieto the return of the pre a return that was you know probably in some ways facilitated by unease with the security situation but he took office last December and in his first year he has not been shy about taking on a lot of big challenges and we read about the education reform energy reform and he's you know the labor market reform and taking on some of the competition issues so if you could just give a painting of a picture for us of what Peña Nieto's been up to and how it it coincides with the transformation that has occurred in Mexico in the last 20 years so a small question to start off. Well let me talk a bit about the real transformation of Mexico's economy over the last couple decades and then now that Peña Nieto's in where he kind of comes into this and I would say if you look at Mexico there's sort of three big changes that have happened economically if you look back over the last few decades and one of the big changes is structural so if you look at the Mexican economy in the early 1980s this was an economy that was closed to the United States in the world it had high tariffs it had subsidies it had quotas it had hundreds and hundreds of state-owned enterprises and about the only thing it sent abroad was oil it dominated experts you fast forward to today Mexico is one of the most open economies in the world it has free trade agreements with 44 nations more than almost any other country and on measures of openness things like trade to GDP it far outpaces the United States or Brazil and even rivals China I mean this is an incredibly open economy today and in this openness it's not dominated by commodities which places like Brazil or Peru or Chile are it is dominated by manufactured goods so you know three every four dollars of things that go abroad are manufactured goods so not commodities it's a very different place than it was you know 30 years ago structurally it's made this transition from this agricultural and commodity based economy to a manufacturing and services dominated economy and that's that's a fundamental difference a second big shift we've seen in Mexico economically over the last couple of decades is the rise of consumption and the rise of a middle class so Mexico has also made a transition from a very poor country to a more middle class nation and you know when you think about Mexico you traditionally think of have and have not you think of tens of millions of poor people and then Carlos Slim all of us exist in Mexico but in addition to those two extremes is now 40 50 60 million people that can be considered middle class they own their own car they own their own home they have a cell phone they have lots of appliances many of their kids go to private school this is a huge change and you see it economically in the numbers you see consumption as a growing part of GDP but you see it in the economy itself and so the variety of retail of the different options that are there you're starting to see it politically too because this was the force that kicked the pre out in 2000 and turned to Fox and then Calderon and then it's the group that actually turned in brought the pre-recon with Beninito just a year ago so this is an important aspect of economically and then increasingly politically and the final shift I want to mention economically because it's important for Mexico but increasingly important for us is US Mexico economic ties and so we've always been linked economically because of the border because of oil and other things but the nature of those ties have fundamentally transformed since NAFTA so the amount of trade going back and forth now is half a trillion dollars every year so it's quadrupled since NAFTA came into effect but probably more important than the amount to me is what is traded and so today rather than oil coming north and finished goods going south what is traded is pieces and parts because what's happening today is integration of manufacturing or are we make things together so for something that's coming in from Mexico so quote-unquote made in Mexico on average today 40% of that product was actually or the value out of that product was made in the United States and there's no other country that comes near to that for the United States so China or the European Union or Brazil it's 4% and even Canada or other NAFTA partner it's only 25% so Mexico by far and above is important for us in the way we actually produce things today and that is fundamentally different than it was when we were thinking about signing NAFTA so all of those changes that have happened and made Mexico's economy a very different place now peninato he's come in despite all these changes I say almost all of them are good changes Mexico hasn't been known for stellar growth over the last 10 years right it's been stable but pretty unspectacular in terms of GDP growth and so this president came in trying to break that gridlock and so for all the good things that have happened in Mexico's economy it still has a lot of problems it has lots of monopolies and oligopies that make many many sectors and beyond telecommunications or media many sectors uncompetitive and not open to entrepreneurs to new ideas it has a paucity of financing so if you're a small medium-sized company or even a semi big company and you want to get financing you to open a new plant or hire new workers it's almost impossible to get it has a lot of other types of barriers it has a very weak transportation system it needs new roads it needs new ports it needs new airports it needs more crossings at the border to make it competitive and it needs to work on its education system because as Mexico's moved out of the low-cost producer to to a less low-cost producer how do you compete will you compete with human capital you compete with innovation and they haven't been able to keep up with those needs in their economy so there's lots to do and that's what Penny just tried to come in and say okay where are the barriers today that we can take this economy and now that we're 20 years from NAFTA where do we go now to make it better for everyone okay that was a great overview of what's what's been occurring and I want to come back to some of the the specifics of the reforms but I'm further why don't you bring us up to date also on the other side of the Mexico story and then I also want both of you to engage on on both of them but just one of the things that Benignito has wanted to do and I think with some success is change the subject there's a perception that his predecessor President Calderón was sort of single-mindedly focused and maybe even obsessed with taking on the cartels you know we you could say obviously for understandable reasons or maybe the strategy was but for what but he took it very personally seems to be the the consensus and that you know when you when you heard from the Presidencia in Mexico for the last six years before Benignito arrived chances are it was it was about the war on drugs Benignito comes in says you know I'm gonna have my interior minister deal with that and I'm gonna talk about other things and yet obviously changing the subject and changing perceptions isn't the same as changing realities how is this war against organized crime and the cartels which you write about so evocatively in your book and as a very courageous foreign correspondent in Mexico you bumped up against quite a bit and trying to cover that story but give us sort of an update of where things stand as we've made the transition from Calderón to Benignito well it's difficult to come after Shannon first I want to thank Andres and New America Foundation for the opportunity I think I was one of these many reporters many foreign correspondents in Mexico who really welcome the change I think if you talk to Jonas in Mexico you would see that many of us probably have PTSD what's the word PTSD or something having cover the drug war for the last 10 years now when 100,000 people kill just in the last six years or disappear so when Benignito comes in in July of last year many of us really applauded the effort to try to change the subject because let's face it I think a lot of people on this side and in Mexico are tired of the headlines they're tired of bodies dangling of headless corpses etc. I would say though that if you look at the headlines in the last few months the elephant is very much there especially if you look since May to the present it's almost impossible to kind of try to put the genie back in the bottle yet having said that I mean you have the government will tell you that the that the murder rate is down by about 20% but you look at surveys and polls throughout Mexico and people still feel very insecure the security remains the big the big problem it haven't said that I think Benignito has done a pretty good job since July he's captured the four the four leaders of the top cartels Ramirez Treviño from the golf cartel Mayito from the Sinaloa in the Juarez region and then these two names I mean they the Beti Lafea Beti Lafea who's in charge of the Juarez cartel in in the Juarez area and Ceta Cuarenta the guy who made a lot of people's lives miserable including my life miserable he's he's been captured so so the you know they haven't really done a big deal like the previous administration and in showcasing these these arrests but but they're there yet I think the the the violence has really changed from one location to another I mean it's no longer Ciudad Juarez in fact I think Ciudad Juarez is now much much better much safer than it was before I think at one point it was over a hundred per a hundred thousand people living now it's I just saw the numbers the other day it's something like 30 so that's that's decreasing significantly significantly you look at places like Nuevo Laredo which to a lot of people still one of the most dangerous cities and yet people are feeling excited about Nova Laredo they just elected a bond government there for the first time businesses are talking about going back to the city and reopening businesses and and and then you look at other places like Estado de Mexico Guerrero Michoacán and the rise of the self-defense groups and that's that's been a I think a big big challenge and that's taken away from from the new narrative so if you talk to the government they will say you know give us a year maybe a little longer but the situation is is improving I don't really get that sense from talking to people on the streets in certain regions I still see that people are very very concerned about that I mean you still have mothers who are Facebooking one another and saying you know can my kid come out on the street and play people still so trying to use social media there's still regions in Mexico where reporters continue to self-censor themselves but forced to self-censor because of threats because of islands etc so I think it's it's still a mixed back I wish and just to give an example I mean I've been working on the story for now for months now trying to look at the other Mexico because there is a more prosperous Mexico there is another side to Mexico there's a place called El Vajillo for example where they have the aerospace industry that's growing and and many other plants we're looking for an example we're looking at a story north Texas and El Vajillo that's what it's one labor market for generations and we're trying to figure out what is the what is the future of that one labor market if less people are coming across the border what happens to Texas what happens to north Texas and one of the things that struck me for example was the the number of people I interviewed in Querétaro, Sonice Potosí, Guanajuato would say you know I still think about going to Mac to the United States like my father or like my grandfather but more out of curiosity than out of necessity and you and then you look at other states like Zacatecas and Durango who are trying to emulate the model that Querétaro is using they're attracting aerospace and in those two instances I talked to executives who said yes we tried to duplicate the same scenario but within weeks we had organized crime calling us and asking us for extortions for monthly extortions so that's kind of the mixed bag in Mexico one of the I guess that's one area where we can disagree which we can disagree in three points and it was interesting that that the change of subject has occurred on both sides of the border I mean it's almost been this concerted effort in terms of the bilateral relationship to de-emphasize security and Vice President Biden was in Mexico last week and it was almost humorous the fact that he kept talking publicly about the fact that he wasn't talking about security but I guess if you're talking about how you're not talking about it you're sort of talking about it but but there's been this concerted effort to make the relationship be more about economic engagement and even education and other all the I used to joke that it was any subject starting with the letter E because it was energy education economy anything not being security I'm sure it came up in some of the private discussions when Peña Nieto first came in and you read about the Salfredo and we talked about it on one occasion the the pre-government said whoa all of this collate all you know this level of cooperation that had been occurring between US security agencies and law enforcement and Mexican agencies is a little bit more than we are comfortable with and let's let's go back to setting some boundaries here in terms of Mexican sovereignty I don't have a sense of how that's really kind of played out in recent months and you've talked about the fact that there continue to be some you know milestones achieved in the fight against the cartels but is this occurring with lesser degree of cooperation between our law enforcement and Mexican agencies or was a lot of that more sort of rhetorical and the and the cooperation is still there that's a great question I mean I was I've been here the last couple of days trying to get answers to those questions and it's interesting in Mexico City no one wants to talk about security and in DC it's the same story I mean very few people want to talk about security it's almost like you know let's just let's just leave it alone and then you ask about the cooperation between both countries people in Mexico City and DC will insist that yes there are new channels that they're that they're using cumbersome bureaucratic etc but yeah you talk to people on on the border in Mexico El Paso Laredo and they will say you know we're still cooperating and on an informal basis we're still calling people one-on-one and it was interesting when when Treviño Morales was was captured in El Laredo on July 16th I think it was interesting to talk to Americans who were in the know along the border in that in that region who knew kind of the details about what had happened it kind of leads you to believe that maybe they were not that they were there but that they were much closer than than maybe we thought they were and I floated that story to people in gobernación people in Mexico City and they all shot it down and it was very nationalistic and you talk to people on the American side and DC they shot it down so there you know there are basically like three realities and and who do you believe I tend to believe people on the border people on the ground so I think that that it's still going on but it's much more informally much more unofficial you know that that kind of cooperation but there is that's the sense of Mexico City and you know I mean as we talked about that the Americans were not only in the kitchen but had become the chefs and there was they had to find a polite way to say you know goodbye we loved your cooking but it's time to go to Shannon what's your sense of how this collaboration we know I think it's pretty striking is the juxtaposition of the economic policy side and the security side in particular in the bilateral part and and you look at this first almost year what ten months of the Benignetto administration and on the economic side they are you know cohesive they are ambitious they have the ear of the president and they are getting stuff done so you know they had a labor reform then they had an education reform then they had an empire reform then they had a you know introduce a financial reform that's working its way through now they have an energy reform they got the secondary legislation done for education I mean they're just going in a fiscal reform and that's going to be done by October 20th and they're you know they're just knocking these things off and they're very tight and moving in lockstep together and then you're being the administration the Benignetto administration so the finance minister and and and and the other and they have a backing of and they're the full backing of the president and then the pacto de Mexico so that the other parties are working very closely on this and then you turn to the security issues and the policy just announced by the government and we'll turn to the US part of it but the policy is much more vague when the leaders of this group come out there at times conflicting and in the way they're describing what they're doing it's much less clear what they're going to do just on their own and how they're going to present it and what the policies are and and the traction of the concrete programs that you might expect to come out of ten months of being in government there's very little to show for it you know it's interesting that you bring up the policy because I've been asking people on both sides what is it nobody can tell you but I found I found a new explanation which I think makes sense you know and that was someone in Mexico City that echoes in DC which was the policies to really root out the problem and to do the economic reforms you know whether it's a telecom fiscal so that we can get the country growing again and that's really the policy to try to create jobs so that people become less of a target for cartels of recruiting efforts and so forth I said but what is the policy on the ground so well you know give us the least a year maybe a little more but I haven't really seen much of a change I think the problem is that and I've right we're talking to people I've heard this on their side as well we're right we're focusing on this and then we're going to turn to security but you don't have that luxury frankly if you're if you're a president or if your administration you have to handle more than one thing at a time and so to what extent is is Benigneto benefiting from a lot of the investments and efforts made by Calderón to end the country in those years to build up capacity whether it's you know state that you know law enforcement at the state level or deployment of federal police and some I guess modest moves towards reforming the judiciary or is that or is there still kind of a gap between the capacity needed by the state to really take this on especially on the on the judicial side where I think everybody agrees and even I noticed Vice President Biden couldn't help himself when his press conference in Mexico he threw something about that and but where are we in the gap I mean I think it was very clear that early on in the Calderón tenure there was just a lack of capacity to handle the problem both the security problem in the law enforcement sense but also as a rule of law matter on the judicial side and how far are we from being able to our Mexico to close that gap it's still pretty far I mean they are still in the process of reforming the judicial system which if it happens will come online in 2016 some places have moved forward and there have been you know when you look at some of the statistics from Chihuahua or other places actually cases get solved faster and more serious cases are actually taken because they can prioritize under the old system you can't prioritize which cases so a murder or somebody who stole you know a bag of chips they both have to be treated equally and now under the new system you can actually prioritize and go after the cases that are more important so some of those things are good but that one it hasn't been spread broadly and two they're still in the baby steps they're learning it's a totally new system and and unfortunately some of these early pilot program pilot places like Chihuahua the new system was coming to place just as the violence was escalating so some people associate well it's a new justice system and and that caused the violence rather than not so I think that issue it's this government has said it's going to push it forward and once it gets through the economic reforms that will be on its agenda but but but the clock is ticking and I would say on the capacity side if you looked at Calderon's administration where capacity was built was at the federal level and in the federal police but not much at the state and local level and so that will be the fundamental challenge for this government can they keep the federal level but then turn to the state and local level and I would say it's been slow so far and getting getting going there was a poll out this morning in animal político it said something like 30% of all Mexicans would rather get rid of the local police and state police and bring in the federal police and then there was a figure that I heard that for the first time the other day that there's currently 36,000 federal police 36 37,000 and that the goals to try to bring in 100,000 by the end of being at those administration the next five years I mean I guess the whole issue also comes down to reelection Mexico does not have reelection so what's the incentive to try to pass these judicial reforms by 2016 if the people who agreed to it are no longer in office let's say it's a reverse the problem is when they passed the judicial reform in 2008 they gave it eight years to be put into place and so because there's no reelection in Mexico there was no sitting politician who would be in that seat when that reform happened now it's 2013 it's three years away there's lots of people who will be in the seat the president will be in the seat the senators will be in their seat some mayors will be in the governor's so 2016 all around either it failed or it didn't or it succeeded so I think now actually is at the time when there's actually a reason to put your political capital into it when there wasn't in 2008 yeah and the relationship between Mexico City and the states is an interesting one because of course you know in the previous years of pre-rule up until 2000 you know the fact that Mexico had a pretty strong federalist structure at least constitutionally was was sort of academic because the pre-president ruler of the party would pretty much decide who was going to govern each state and and the governors would report to the presidency then of course the bond wins the presidency and that system breaks down and everybody kind of is reminded that these the state the states actually have quite a bit of autonomy and and that creates some some interesting frictions and and some more latitude for different state governors and so now we have the return of the pre to the presidency but what you know what happens to that relationship does it go back to if you're a pre-governor do you sort of go back to the 80s and and say you know when the president asks you to do something you just sort of salute and say see senior president or you know are you kind of more accustomed to the fact that hey I have a little bit of autonomy here I mean that dynamic is that because I think that plays itself out quite a bit on a lot of these security matters do you have a view on that Shannon I mean so far it's been interesting right because I mean Penny net to himself knew what it was like to be a powerful governor and you know in some ways moving to Los Pinos to Mexico's White House was was a step down because of the autonomy that that you had you know now you have to persuade people to come along rather than being governor where you have you have much more autonomy and direct transfers of money into your budget and less oversight and all of that and I think this will be the real challenge is how do the pre-governors line up and how how does that negotiation happen and he's been pretty smart in many ways he's brought in a lot of pre-governors or ex-governors into his cabinet into very prominent positions so there's a reason to go along in the in the old way but but one thing that's very different is one there are automatic transfers of monies to the state that didn't happen in the old days where it wasn't as clear so it's it's very hard to cut off many of these governors the way you used to in case they they go off the reservation in many ways and the other thing is you have you know what economists would call in some ways a moral hazard problem happening right now which is if the security situation gets bad enough in your state what will happen is the federal government will come in and intervene and with the federal police and bring all the resources and you don't pay for any of it so why would you spend your security budget when you could be spending that money on other things that might be more electorally important to you or building up your base or helping out people who have helped you in the past you know or on social programs or things that you care about when you could get if things get worse you could get the federal government to pay for your whole security side and I think that dynamic we've already started to see that in some of the states and so how do you change that and that would be important for the president and one thing you've seen the president try to reassert authority over the states in some of the rules some of the proposals for the way the fiscal regime is going to work for some of the transparency and accountability at the state level which hasn't been there before now that Peninieto is up in in you know in the executive branch it's actually important that the states are more transparent than perhaps when he was there and he enjoyed the leeway to to not open up open up the budget to you know to outside viewers so it's going to be an interesting dynamic as we go forward with the pre-governors and then of course the other the pond in the PRD government governors will be more difficult in that sense I mean I think there was a there was also a sense on the security front that when people voted to pre-back in at least we did several polls for the Dallas Moines news and poll after poll show that Mexicans felt that the pre coming back meant going back to the old system you know the old accommodation collusion between cartels and and the government and maybe that's still going on but I but it's far as coming up with the pack I think at least from people you're here on the streets I mean it's it's it's very very difficult not impossible to try to emulate that so soon into his administration yet I also find it fascinating I mean when you look at the Malipas this is a long long pre a stronghold and yet the key places that voted to pre out pick places like noble are those you that Aleman and there's another one I think it was matamoros or reynosa I mean the old they all voted the bond back in to try to hold the pre accountable that's kind of a fascinating you know dynamic places of incredible violence right right in your ballot yeah right and so do you think I feel that pay any of those reforms a lot of the ones that Shannon listed are are gonna succeed are they are they gonna be meaningful are they gonna really sort of change Mexico and I'd like both of you to talk a little bit about what he's trying to do with the Congress on education and why that's important and then also a little bit on on energy and then we can shift and I'm just a reporter I don't know if they're gonna succeed it's gonna be very chaotic I mean I've been I was in Mexico the last 10 days or so and just the number of marches that are happening and this is not we're not even talking about the energy before me I'm talking about education not just in a central historical in the so-called but in places like Masarik you know Masarik Avenue the Polanco I mean I think he will if you look at the number that I think he will succeed in passing these reforms will it help Mexico and in the long term I hope so I mean I I think that's that's that's can be really the real key and and just for those who might not have followed the details too closely the education reform is I mean it's it's characterized in shorthand as essentially trying to rest control from away from the teachers unions over education a control that ironically I suppose the pre bestowed on it in the good old days in order to have this this incredibly powerful political base but the units went to support and then right later on yes so it's a but is that is that a fair characterization of what the reform is trying to accomplish I mean it sets basic performance standards I mean right now under the old system in Mexico if you're a governor or mayor and you want to find out how many teachers are supposed to be in the school in your district you can't right how many were supposed to be in the classroom just to see then if they are in the classroom you can't find that out I need to know basically which which you as the governor or the mayor or the city council person or a citizen citizen got from it right don't need to know I guess right like who how many teachers supposed to be in your kids school and then do they actually show up and teach me you don't have access to that information so it's all of it's as basic as that is as that information should be public and then do these people show up and not and then others are setting up stand you know performance standards so you know can your math teacher pass a test that they can then teach math and and there's also a whole part about revamping the curriculum at some of the the schools that are supposed to train teachers so that if you don't know how to teach math class or English class you presumably could go take courses that one that helped you to teach that on the reform agenda which I think is interesting there's I mean there's all these economic reforms out there and many of them I do think you know if pass the energy reform and things depending on what it is will be really important for Mexico's economy but the other one that's on the agenda not put there by peninito but put there by their coalition partners by the pond which I think could be fundamentally changing and transforming for Mexico is a political reform and so right now the pond is trying to negotiate that if we go with you on energy reform you will pass this political reform and it will do things like it will do a runoff if if in a presidential election if somebody doesn't pass a certain threshold so you can't win with you know thirty five thirty seven percent of the vote but one thing it would do is probably allow reelection at the local level and up to the federal representative level so mayors could be reelected council members could be reelected and and for me this could in you know looking ten years out from Mexico or further this could fundamentally change Mexico because the problem right now especially at the local level is if you're a mayor you have a three-year term so you come into office and let's say you have the best of intentions you're a public servant you believe it that's why you've run for office you know your first year you're trying to figure out you know where the doors are you're trying to get your cabinet and other people and pointed the second year you're working really hard to get change things in your district and the third year you're looking for your next post and the way you're going to find your next post is someone in your party is going to nominate you to another political position so if you want to be a career politician your future always depends on the head of the central you know the group of the party that decides where everybody goes it doesn't depend on the people who voted for you and so if you're trying to make a political career you don't need to cater to voters right and so things that and also things that take longer than two or three years like police reform or you know judicial reform those things aren't on your radar screen building a bridge or spending money to create construction jobs that you can do in 18 months or two years but the other things you can't and the other thing happens in Mexico is when you leave and move on as mayor the next mayor comes in and that person appoints a new police chief and a new attorney general and a new everyone so even if these all really good talented people the turnover means you don't have consistency and you aren't able to build up say a security system that works and so that reform the political reform that's being talked about and being perhaps tied to these economic reforms that the government wants so much could actually in some ways make a bigger difference in the long term for Mexico than even energy reform basically trying to eliminate the the elusive search for the vessel you know you spend all your career looking for that next that vessel the bone and the energy reform is is obviously of particular significance to the bilateral relationship you know I remember as a kid you know the day that in March when the oil companies were expropriated and the American oil companies were expropriated and another foreign in the 30s was is a holiday and it's you know and cornerstone of the modern constitution that the oil belongs to the people and now the reform might open the door to foreign investment into the energy sector which a lot of people argue is is direly needed because there hasn't been the kind of capital reinvestment in the industry but but it is a very tough touchy subject politically is this one that that's going to fly is he going to get away with that and is it something that the United States is is pushing it all or is it sort of America our Americans kind of just not getting involved in that those conversations well we had a poll this weekend in the Dallas when you saw by via noble Austin based consulting firm that show that I think 54 percent of people poll were in favor of the of the reforms but it was a 61 or 62 percent were not in favor of privatization so that that shows you know the whole dilemma yet if you ask people you know if you bring it to them and you explain the job opportunities and how the oil is really belongs to them and not the government I think those numbers change it's it's one of these are what we're following it as a Texas newspaper is looking at the explosion of the what's the name of the in South Texas the shell gas and and how that extends into places like Guaduila another straight the Malipas and so forth yet those areas are controlled by organized crime and and so when you ask people in that area and this is not the poll but when we did the story that was one of the first things people said is you know if it means that we can make this much more efficient if it means that we can get rid of organized crime and get back to the economy then we're all for it right now it's facing a real quandary in its energy sector in that you've seen production over the last decade decline about 25 percent it's stabilized right now but it looks like it will continue to decline and what Pemex Mexico's state-owned enterprise knows how to do the type of things it knows how to do is not Mexico's future so when you look at where Mexico has proven reserves or possible reserves they're in the types of fields that Pemex has no expertise deep water drilling or shale oil and gas or other unconventional oils so how do you increase productivity and not only is I mean oil is less important in the economy than it used to be it used to be almost 20 percent of GDP now it's about six or seven percent of GDP but it's still incredibly important for the federal budget it's about 35 40 percent of the federal budget so if you start seeing oil production decline and perhaps oil prices which have been as production has gone down prices have gone up so it stabilized the the budget but but that may not last forever as we know or maybe it will we'll see but but that's something the volatility there is really worrisome to politicians and to everyone else who wants to provide basic services so if you ask everyone across the polo spectrum and they're more some and anytime others in their more candid moments everybody knows you need to change it and the amount of money Pemex would need to invest in itself to be able to do the types of exploration and production that it doesn't know how to do is enormous and not there if you actually want to keep funding the government so this is part of the reason that the reason you need to open up the oil sector to foreign investment but perhaps more important even the investment is the expertise right the challenge though I would say for Pemex as they go through this and you look at the vote count and who's on what side it looks like they can pass this reform they can pass a constitutional reform but the challenge is that's probably not enough to bring in the people who have expertise and you know a warning or cautionary tale for Mexico is what just happened to Petrobras in Brazil and so just last week Petrobras auctioned off it's or announced that it was going to start the auction for its biggest deep water fields that you know everybody's been talking about this back seven years ago Lula who's the president came out and said you know God is Brazilian because we found all this oil it's you know we're right up there with Saudi Arabia they were sure that this was going to go off and be a huge success and they just got all of the people who were going to bid on it and they thought 40 people would bid and only 11 are bidding and none of the major oil companies they all said thanks but no thanks so Exxon is not BP is not Chevron is not basically the only companies that are bidding are national oil companies and mostly the Chinese so why is that because the terms even though it's an open thing they don't feel like they can make money at it and I was talking with a friend of mine who is with one of the big major oil companies and he said you know the problem is for us it's not money we have money what we don't have is or we have a scarcity of our is human expertise we have only so many teams that know how to do shale oil and gas or know how to do deep water drilling and so you're competing if you're Mexico or Brazil with should we do it here or should we do it in North Dakota should we do in Tamalipas or should we you know and that is the choice and they only have so many teams and so as Mexico I mean hopefully they open up the sector and it's attractive and you get the investment and I mean it's interesting the government of Mexico has done studies but so have independent studies and all of them if this comes off as a success it could raise Mexico's annual GDP by between 1.5 and 2% a year which would be a huge increase right when it's interesting yeah it's interesting but this has to happen right it has to be attractive right which isn't just changing the Constitution right and if you're if you do if it's hard to just change the Constitution chances are the terms are not going to be interesting you mentioned Petro Ross because that was during the campaign when he started talking about well maybe we can revisit this he pointed to Brazil as an example of you know it's it's possible to have a state-owned oil company and yet have deals where you can bring in the the foreign capital and expertise and and he actually used the analogy of you know Nixon going to China like it would take a pre-president to do this you know just like it would take a staunch Republican conservative to open up relations with China and and there's always been this I mean it's paradoxical that Mexico being such an open economy as you point out has its control over energy is is more hermetically sealed off than even Venezuela or Brazil so it's kind of Cuba that's a different event yeah so so many other things I want to ask about but I also am eager to get folks from the audience involved I'm before we do that though just very quickly and fellow your book is is a it's a personal story in a way that I you know I couldn't put it down I think I literally read it in one sitting and for those of you who have not had the opportunity to read it yet maybe you could just give us a little bit of a tease if you could just talk for a few moments about the your personal journey in addition to what you were describing Mexico has gone through I also promise I was gonna ask you if it's still midnight in Mexico but talk a little bit just about your journey and then we'll open it up to questions looking for Don my journey is I was born in Mexico and in Durango left at the age of six grew up in California in the San Joaquin Valley and I've been a journalist now for almost more than 25 years 20 of them based in Mexico as a bureau chief for the Dallas Point News and I think that's that's really where the bulk is based is looking at over the last 50 years but also trying to make sense of what went right what went wrong in Mexico during that time and the challenge was really to try to get off the sidelines as a reporter I mean I think we get very comfortable as journalists to you know asking people questions and so forth but suddenly it really came down to to you to try to tell a a journalistic story I mean I think I I've lived through the most turbulent years in Mexico I was I was listening to Andres and it's time in Chihuahua and I thought about the Chihuahua back in the 1980s and the whole movement for the other the change political change and so forth but the challenge for me was really to try to to write a book with the benefit of distance I live in Mexico City but I go back and forth and it was in many ways it was kind of like as a member of the diaspora the immigrant diaspora in the United States try to write about the tragic beauty of the homeland and to try to do it in a personal level so it took a lot of music and a lot of soundtracks and so forth to try to bring back those memories bring back those moments and it took a lot of tequila to try to really feel feel that I mean in some ways it's kind of carrying the the weight of two countries midnight of Mexico I mean the name came as midnight because it was after the the fourth death threat and one of these darkest moments of your life when you're sitting there and you're wondering did I do the right thing in coming back to Mexico and at that moment you're you're thinking the only thing you're you want to believe in is in the promise of a new day so when the agent publishers came back and said you know we want you to write a book my first suggestion was midnight in Tenochtitlán didn't fly and then I eventually came down with midnight in Mexico this is before midnight in Paris okay and I thought you know at that point I thought we've lost that it's over but they they actually stuck with that and so is it is that as it's still midnight I really want to believe that there's a dawn and I and I do believe that there is a dawn I think it's maybe two three o'clock in the morning and in Mexico City the nights are very very long thank you I read the questions commentaries sir and please yeah wait for a microphone and and identify yourself this is being webcast so we want to have a microphone here in the second round my name is Antoniore I spent a number of years with the World Bank I want to ask if you could help us understand the politics of the pact why did we get a pact now and not before presumably any administration of the last 20 years would have been happy to have had this kind of arrangement to put these kind of reforms through so question one why did we get it now and not before question two how durable will it be how long before they feel they have to hive off in different directions to prepare for the next election good question what the reason it was possible to me is that's because the pre is back the pre for the 12 years it was out had no incentive to form a pact with the pun or others and show that those those parties could govern they wanted to show that they were the only ones who can govern and that's back what they ran on last last year around was you know you might like us you might like us you might have worried about us but we know how to govern while the pun does not look at the look at the violence look at the economy look at other things so that's the reason it didn't happen before is because the pre wasn't interested in acting in fact many of the reforms peninieto is trying to push forward now the pre vetoed and you know some would say actually he is one of the most important people in the in the party when they were out of power probably personally vetoed now that he has it on his agenda so that's why they're in it but the question is why are the prd and why the pun in it now you know I would say the pun in particular is in it because well ideologically they believe in a lot of these things to they were decimated by the last election so they're a bit fragile at this point and so it's not everybody in the pond that agrees with this but it but there's some elements you see it as advantageous to hook on to this and three they feel if they want to come back in governorships and then finally the presidency they can't be seen as doing nothing as putting you know is not ideologically getting done what they want to do for so long but even before they came to the presidency they said they wanted energy reform they said they wanted tax reform they wanted education they want all these things so they can't be seen if they want to be electorally viable down the road they can't be seen as voting against these things because it is there's supposedly a platform party right there they are party with a real platform and so you can't vote against your platform so I think there's a reason there you can only have one blatantly cynical party exactly that's what I'm saying right you can only have one that says we're all just about power and nothing else right this umbrella party they actually think they have an ideology and then on the on the PRD side there's a pragmatic part of the PRD a smaller part but that's the one who also is saying perhaps we can gain electorally and in our personal strength and up this part of the party by signing on and being part of this change right working with the the pre rather than working against them I mean there's big big parts of the the PRD that have said no Lopez or what are being the most you know his being the most vociferous on that but but so has so many others Cardinals and others have so that part it's part of it how long does it last I say it doesn't have all I mean it will get through the end of this year maybe the beginning of next year but once you start preparing for midterms once you start thinking about that I think it's very hard to hold the center and frankly for for peninieto if all the stuff happens by the end of the year the 120 days he gave in his state of the union to get all this done how useful the pact may be less useful for the pretty as well as they gear up for elections and want to be running against against other candidates so the reporter you think you think by the end of the year all the reforms will pass I'm just trying to plan ahead I think there's a good possibility that many of the economic ones I think fiscal and energy and probably financial education well they'd passed it it's done right right so and then the secondary round for energy I don't know if that'll be by the end of the year but I think it'll go start talking about it but assuming it goes it does feel like a lot of the energy we're seeing and I really I characterized it as peninieto doing X Y or Z but but probably energy does feel that it's sort of like a big to stop it because for the 12 years you did not have a governing majority in the Congress with with three factions neither one of them and now you you do for the reasons you alluded to that it would have been too jarring of a turnaround for the bond to suddenly be opposing all the things that that's kind of we see in Washington but but it might have been too jarring for Mexican audiences and so it's there's an opportunity here but it is an interesting dynamic which sir hi I'm Rick really I in the 1970s I had the fortune good fortune to study it in Mexico City for a couple of years like young people I suppose and so I've been going back there ever since and we've been talking about all the micro or the macro questions and I think people are pretty much in agreement but micro the change in individuals back in the 1970s you paid the cop a little bit of money so he didn't give you a traffic ticket now the level of corruption every single one of my classmates from university their families have been threatened people have been express kidnapped the level of corruption is down to the point where my driver in Mexico City who owns three taxis was called a few weeks ago and the person on the end of the phone threatened his family and knew exactly how much cash he had deposited in the bank yesterday so presumably it was a teller or someone who called someone and my question to you three is that the macro changes are all fantastic but the decay probably because there aren't other jobs but for lots of other reasons has has really taken root in a way that I I'm shocked and I spent a lot of time in Mexico City and I wondered if you could comment on on the micro what are you sure I mean I I also think that the the corruption is is being exposed a lot more I think in part due to social media I mean I I find it fascinating that the number of videos you now see a number of people sharing whether it's Facebook or Twitter or or YouTube people paying you know bribes and so forth I'll tell you one anecdote that that shocked me and little little shocks me in Mexico these days but this one really really blew me away as a as a Mexico City resident you have to change your your sticker now your car sticker every six month I think or so forth also a short the guy who was doing my car gets pulled over by the police and they they they take my car the guy calls me up and says Alfredo we have a problemita he can say he can say and I said it's a problemita and he explains to me and I said that's a problemota I said you know very kind of natural I said cuánto and he says five so I shop at the police station think it's 500 pesos and they have some well the driver outside and he's there is there with the cops and I'm kind of this is kind of a not little thing you know why is he not inside the police station so forth so I go over I talked to him and I said that alone you know you apologize and you say you know I'm so sorry that this happened it's oversight on my part how much is it going to take and it says and I said so what's the procedure now she's well you know we can put him in jail and it might take you months maybe years to see him again or we can resolve this among ourselves and I said well you know all I have is 300 pesos because you always kind of want to go you know you're gonna have to negotiate and the guy just looked at me and laughed and laughed he says no no no this is gonna take 10,000 pesos I think it was different you know I literally only has 600 pesos in my pocket so you go back back and forth back and forth and I realized that they were serious they were about to take some well I said you know let me have a second with them I said someone five what do you mean by five he says five thousand vessels and so I pull him back and I and I called them so let me call an attorney friend of mine to try to see if I can get the money and I turn my iPhone on and I take the whole transaction and I kept saying but alone how much money was that and he's telling me you know very blatantly it's it's fight well he says well we can we can go down to six thousand we finally went down to five which is a magic number as you know what seriously I don't have five thousand vessels I have I have six so well we'll take you to the the we will escort you to the bank and take some money very efficient it was only just a few blocks from there and they did that and as we as we got to the the front of the bank they the guard who was there says it's a little and I'm taping the whole thing I take the money out pay and I said perdón con quién tuve el gusto you know who that I have the pleasure with and they say no el sargento Martínez is Argento salgado blah blah it's all taped paid him get in the car I tell Samuel listen I know this was a tough tough day for you but we have it on tape we can just put it on YouTube we can put it on Facebook we can put on Twitter like millions of Mexicans or maybe not millions but a lot of Mexicans are doing it these days and he just said no he said that I don't belong to the middle class you know they know my name they know they have my address so I think I mean yes I think I think it's corruption that's being exposed a lot more but I also think there are some limitations to you know so maybe maybe it's becoming more and more terrible I'm of a pattern I mean I look at the news every day and I'm always looking for that little column about corruption caught on tape and so forth but it's definitely much more widespread than I than I think when when I was growing up or when I when I started Mexico as a correspondent I think it definitely is the biggest speed bump to Mexico's development it's kind of the I think more so than crime and insecurity where I'm kind of optimistic in the long term I mean they're related though because I think it one feeds on the other and it's sort of this corrosion of the rule of law which then spills over into other ways and I think it's that I mean I was I was talking to people in Suarez for example and you think of extortions as just the top business people that are being hit I mean more and more you hear from people shining shoes or people running a taqueria stand and it's something like 50 pesos a week 75 pesos a week 100 pesos a week I mean it it it impacts on a very very local daily basis there was a question in the back I know you okay hi Ricardo Sandoval former colleague of Alfredo said the morning news and also in the book yeah I'm still waiting for my royalties you know the following up on the question on the corruption I think that's a it's a fundamental question and there was a figure presided about the GDP potential with the new energy sector reforms I think a lot of that I mean some of that could be generated just by a massive undertaking to clean up you know some substantial levels of the government and so that leads to a question about the relationship between the US and Mexico on security with the new administration I'm wondering if if there's a level of trust that had some nascent had some beginnings in the previous administration previous administrations if that was all just torn up by the by the by the most recent presidential election where are we with that and did it did 12 years of a different government yield us anything when it comes to making some honest headway in the fight against corruption and in the overall security comfort level of comfort between the two countries that's a good question do we essentially like start over each time Shannon what do you think I mean I would say the level of trust even under the Calderon government there you would measure this not at the top level but you'd measure it at the mid to lower level I mean that's where where trust really developed was people person to person agent to agent or officer to officer or the like and that you know is Alfredo you know illuminated before some of that's still happening it may be informal might not be as formal as it was before where you had you know the green light from above but I think some of that is continuing that back and forth so that would be the you know the optimistic side is whatever happens in Washington and Mexico City in the offices of you know the ministries in the interior homeland security yes it matters but really where trust matters is at a very different level and now I don't think has changed as dramatically and the question that would be is does Washington and Mexico City do they come around it's been sort of a slow startup I would say do they come around to working together pretty closely and stuff or not and well I still as Alfredo when I talk to people on both sides of of the relationship and ask someone what what is your security strategy and they kind of you know they are a little bit vague and we're gonna do this and that but one thing that's still a big part of it it seems from both sides is intelligence and working together on intelligence and that presumably would trust matters for sharing of intelligence so they both are pushing that forward perhaps you don't lose we haven't lost six or twelve years but but it's it's it's evolving rather than than totally dissipating or or or breaking from the past and actually just to sort of reinforce what what Alfredo was saying what I found actually quite interesting over the last ten months I guess of the Penina administration is every time I open up the paper in Mexico there's some big scandal story about a governor doesn't matter what party there's a big scandal story about a union leader or a large business or the like that they're out there and all of these details of of you know the planes and the houses and the this and the name and Marcus charges and all of the like and and that to me something very new in Mexico and partly that comes from things like the Freedom of Information Act that isn't a fox past and then using it I mean those are those are pretty big steps forward I mean we think about it like oh it's not a big deal but it is a big deal right to actually have that information so that's the you know moving forward side what I haven't seen yet is any of these cases lead to a conviction in fact there was something I saw in the news this morning that maybe El Beste Cordillo the teachers union that her case is starting to fall apart and like really you don't have the capacity to hold together one case of someone that I mean everybody at least you know anecdotally knows she didn't you know buy all those things and carrying Hermes bag on a teacher's salary I mean how could you not build a case against her how could you know this is your one chance and you you may be messing it up so what does worry me there is is either it's corruption or it's just the lack of capacity on her side to to prosecute someone successfully and if you can't do that then having these cases across the front pages of all the newspapers after a while you get very cynical about it let me just follow up a little bit on regardless question one of the speaking of intelligence and trust among governments one of the revelations that came out of a lot of the sort of NSA leaks of that we all are familiar with of late had been that fact that you know US the US agencies were able to listen in on some of Benignietto's personal conversations while he was running for the presidency they were listening in on his cell phone come calls other there have been other revelations obviously about other countries most notoriously in the last few weeks there you know Brazilian Brazil's president canceled a visit to Washington for this very reason postpone yes excuse me for my lack of diplomatic tact you know in Mexico how the story you know I haven't I haven't been in Mexico in a few months but the story how did it play and and is there is there not the level of outrage that people in Brazil feel and there really wasn't there really wasn't I mean I think that was one of the shocking things is how it really became a big deal in Brazil but in Mexico I mean the administration kind of downplayed it people got that well what it you know what else is new I mean this has been going on probably for forever and you talk to US intelligence people they say yeah we've been doing it for a while we just got caught you know so I don't know if it was Benignietto's way of saying me la deben or or just you know kind of shrug it off I think both sides use intelligence so because it was it when the liquid when we had the WikiLeaks revelations a couple years ago the Calderón government really kind of you know got in a in a in a in a state and it you know cost the US ambassador at the time his job and so the contrast has been interesting not just between the way some of these revelations are playing out in places like Brazil and Mexico but even between WikiLeaks and and this and this is a very personal and invasion I imagine if you're Benignietto so maybe there's some private conversations about dude stop listening in circles sir international investor things well first of all thank you for mentioning the Vajil as a case I'm from Carretera and we got a really nice aerospace cluster developing there it's really economic boost I need your card for my question do you think that the objective of Benignietto's reforms are more to increasing the federal budget in cost of competitiveness of the industrial and private sector begin this in the energy reform and more for the proposal of the fiscal one I think the taxes are not suggesting a foster to the come to the industrial part in my view on the on the fiscal reform is that the Benignietto's administration they made the calculation that they really wanted to get energy reform they needed to do some sort of fiscal reform but they couldn't do a they couldn't get both they couldn't get big fundamental fiscal and energy reform so they decided to go for energy and do a fiscal reform but not one that would fundamentally change the the structure so they didn't put in the general the Eva the value-added tax across the board which many people had wanted you know put a more market oriented they didn't really change a lot of the overall structure of of the fiscal regime because they just felt like they couldn't get both so I would imagine let's say all these reforms are are successful they're going to increase spending which is one thing that you know the fiscal reform will do you we may be revisiting fiscal reform in a few years probably after midterm elections we might be revisiting it to to reshape it in a way so I think it if you look at sort of fundamental changes and where they might go you know telecommunications potentially could be a fundamental change education reform potentially can be fundamental change energy yes I don't think this fiscal reform is a is a fundamental trans you know transformation and if energy reform happens depending on how it is you may need a big fiscal reform a big change because some of the energy money won't be flowing into the the government and also because production with foreign investment isn't going to come online for many many years even if they start tomorrow and again the impetus for fiscal reform has always been the idea that the tax receipts the percentage of the economy that goes to towards tax receipts in Mexico is is quite low I think it's the lowest of any OECD country it's the lowest of OECD and second only to Guatemala in Latin America which is you know probably not the the crowd you want to be running with other questions Constantine in the thanks I'm Constantine I'm a fellow here other than Andres's plans to open a taqueria where you know I want to get a job slicing the tacos al pastor you guys partner with me we'll talk later all right you guys managed not to talk very much about immigration which seems to me sort of one of the most striking structural changes in the last five years or so that you had a flow of hundreds of thousands of people a year that has fallen to you know close to zero and I was wondering if you could elaborate a bit I guess on how you disaggregate the causes of this to what extent is it purely a reflection of the slowdown in the U.S. economy of the sort of border security stuff of the right wing in this country to what extent it's a reflection of dynamics within Mexico and then sort of following that sort of how lasting a change do you see this being and what do you see its implications for Mexico you mentioned that briefly talking about the the workers in Queretaro who you know who aren't thinking of going as much but is that going to be also true in you know in states that like you know Oaxaca Zacatecas that have been traditionally sort of more migrant areas I mean I think it's all three factors I mean you talk to Mexicans about why they're not going as much as they used to I mean you know first is the fertility right with seven to two seven babies versus two but a lot of people will also talk about just how difficult it is just the danger of crossing the Mexican border I mean the fact that the Zacatecas are really much more than a cartel I mean it's much more of an organized criminal organization and they control these routes smuggling routes that's a big factor when when they discover all these bodies clandestine graves in in Tamalipas we were interviewing people in Guanajuato in Suliz Potosi and buses were literally leaving empty I mean that that was a big fear then you have the whole US border security you know that may also has made it much more difficult and then the US economy although the Texas economy as and really had the same slowdown as the overall US economy but I think those were big big factors I mean to the point where some Mexico I mean some employers in the in Texas are beginning to ask you know what happens if tomorrow we don't have enough Mexicans what happens to the economy what do we bring people in I mean just add a couple of things that are interesting one is as Alfredo says the demographic numbers and just the average kids per family and how that's trailed off and when you look versus the 1990s when you saw this big inflow there's probably somewhere between like a hundred and two hundred thousand just fewer kids turning 18 each year so that's a hundred two hundred thousand people that don't need to go into any job market whether they're on the side of the border the other big change over the last 20 25 years is the number of years kids stay in school and it's doubled so if you're 14 or 15 year old you're much more likely now to think about going on to 10th or 11th grade then should I where's my job prospects so it at least delays the immigration decision and if you're finishing high school and even you know there's three million Mexicans now in college if you're thinking about that you're delaying the idea of of immigrating and perhaps then also perhaps finding a job in in Mexico instead and then the third interesting thing I think is sort of the numbers that we keep is just people aren't moving back and forth as often as they were before so the counts end up differently and there's some surveys that were done they started in the 1990s and they asked there you know if you're here in the United States how often do you go back and 50% of Mexicans said they would go back to Mexico within a year and 75% said they would go back to Mexico within two years so in the 90s there really was circular migration you come for several months and then you go back now the same survey you ask and you ask you know will you go back this year and it's somewhere between 10 and 15% that go back in the same year that they come so I mean a huge decrease so people are coming and staying for longer or just staying and so I think that also changes when we're trying to measure these flows it changes it and probably because of the security issues probably they're entering sectors that aren't as seasonal right they're no longer doing agriculture there and services or other things so you don't leave when the harvest is done but partly it's so costly to get across the border why would you leave that's one of the saddest things that I find as a reporter when you're covering this issue and you're traveling through Guanajuato in some of these states Zacatecas and the number of kids who have not met their dads or their moms I mean when I was going up in Mexico my father was a Bracero a guest worker I didn't really know I had a father but I knew that every December the man would show up and you know he had gifts and so forth you don't you don't find that anymore with the with the in a lot of these regions in Mexico I mean that back and forth I think we have time for one more question there is one my test alright good morning I'm William from AU I'm just wondering because you mentioned that there are reforms in the energy sector but you mentioned that human capital lack of technical expertise is one trouble and I was just wondering if perhaps the US could hypothetically organize an exchange of services or an exchange in like some exchange program that will help to increase say human capital development in those oil drillings fields in Mexico because the thing is that Mexico is the third biggest US supply of oil and that shale gas production is probably gonna increase to like 46% by 2035 so I mean the US has a big stake in it and I was just wondering what are your comments I mean part the US hasn't done it as of yet because oil and energy in Mexico such a touchy subject as Andres laid out in fact in the debates now I mean it's interesting when president best president Biden was just down in Mexico last on Friday and you know he didn't say anything about energy and Benito didn't say anything about immigration it's like you guys work it on your own countries right now and everybody's you know agreed to be quiet on those issues so you know if if the United States were to come out and say oh we'd love to train people in the oil sector you can imagine right now and it's very sensitive issue they did actually the president vice president Biden announced that there will be doing many more educational exchanges and so one could imagine and Mexico actually has this big initiative they want to send a hundred thousand people to study the United States by because it's staggering how few do I mean countries like I think Mexico ranks 15th or something in terms of the number of foreign students in the US you know there's so much attention and effort placed and bringing graduate students from China and you know Southeast Asia and other parts of the world and I think there's there's been a neglect I mean to the extent just given how integrated the two economies have become and the proximity there's been a real neglect in terms of you know what you're talking about more broadly which is a sort of human exchange and and and a broader kind of engagement on the part of civil society to connect the way that the economies are connecting and I think probably probably it's just a question of I think people figure that will just sort of happen on its own you know it you know there's there's been less of a need I think there's been a perception that there's less of a need for a formalized channel than you might have with some other countries because because we got NAFTA and because families are going back and forth but when you look at the number of Mexican graduate students in US universities it's it's do you know that number it's like 20,000 or something it's it's it's me it's quite low so more of that would be good and and on the question of the US oil companies getting too directly involved it is it's very sensitive I mean I think there will be matters of a concession there are other ways of going about it but I was sort of amused a couple of years ago I was in Mexico City and there was a lot of fanfare that the I think it was the Prince of Norway was was in town and there was a huge delegation of the Norwegian state state oil company and they were engaged in in talks with Bamax and then I don't know what that led to or didn't lead to but there are other potential partners that might be less politically sensitive because in you know the 1930s when the oil companies were expropriated they were not Norwegian oil companies so there you know there's other other ways to tap into you know human capital there well there are lots of other subjects we could tackle but I'm afraid we've hit our time limits because I'd federal among other things has to catch a plane but thank thanks to both of you this has been fantastic and thank you all for coming to be continued