 Good morning and welcome to Global Report. I'm your host Lily, hosting live all the way from Singapore. We have with us today Mr Graham Corrington who is all the way out in South Africa. Now Graham is the founding director of Tomorrow Today Global. Welcome to the show Graham. Hi Lily, great to be joining you today. Now Graham, I know you are a futurist. Tell us what does that even mean and have you got a crystal ball? You know what, it's very interesting when I travel through airports obviously. I'm talking about a past life many, many years ago. You know, if we're going to remember going through airports and you have to fill out those arrivals forms and you put in your occupation. You know, I would put in futurist. It would be easier maybe on myself if I just put in strategy consultant or something like that. But it's fun to see the border agent sort of looking down and looking up at me and I've had all sorts of things. You know, people asking me to predict sports scores and all sorts. And unfortunately, that isn't what I do. I wish it was. I wish I had a crystal ball. I wish I could make predictions. But if I did that, let's be honest. I'd be living on a private island somewhere. Anybody who could actually predict the future is obviously making a lot of money. What a futurist does is we track trends. We try and understand how the world is changing. And we look at scenarios for the future. So we're not making predictions. We're trying to work out what's possible, what's likely. And what are some of the mega trends and the disruptive forces that could change the world? And one of the things we have been talking about, in fact, I wrote about it in a book 15 years ago, is a global pandemic that causes a global quarantine as one of the crazy thoughts that was something that might change the world forever. And here we are. Well, I have to say it doesn't sound so crazy these days. I think if there's anyone who's qualified to say, I told you so, I told you so, it would be the epidemiologist, it would be the infectious disease expert, and you, you know, the futurist. Now, Graham, I know that the COVID-19 crisis has brought on a lot of tragedies. It has caused a lot of disruption across sectors, among sectors across the economy. And one of those that the group that's hardest hit is the gig workers, otherwise known as the on-demand workers. Do you see things changing for them going forward? Because, you know, the jobs they have, they come with no assets, no benefits. So unlike typical corporate employees, they don't have ownership in company stocks, they have no sick leave, no health benefits. Do you foresee the companies to whom they're contracted doing more for them? Or do you see government passing regulations to better protect them for times like this? You know, sadly, in the short term, I think this is going to be one of the big downsides of the gig economy. At one level, I'm in the gig economy too. I have a company, I'm one of the founding partners of the company, but I don't get a salary. You know, I work by travelling around the world speaking to companies, speaking at conferences, working with executive teams to try and help them think about the future. But if I don't work, I don't get paid, and I only get paid for the work that I do. And so I think people forget that the gig economy is not just the graphic designer or the jingle writer or the website developer who's charging minimum wage or even below minimum wage. There are a lot of people who are basically on contract and who don't rely on a salary or fixed contracts. They go from gig to gig and job to job. And this has been tough. I mean, it has really been tough for our business. And there is no security in it. We don't have long term contracts with any of our clients. And when things began to really get difficult back in February and March, we just had cancellations all around. And I think that that's been the experience of many gig workers around the world. But we have over the last few weeks discovered that more and more people are coming back to us. And they are asking us to do what we had been doing before. And they are now more comfortable to do it at a digital distance. So actually, as it happens in the last three or four weeks, I've been busier than I've ever been in an April before. Because people are now beginning to realize that you can do some of this at a digital distance. You can do some work that maybe in the past you thought you had to fly somebody across the world and put them into a room for. Now we realize we can work at home. We can get into the gig economy mindset. So I actually think gig economy workers who have a quality product, who provide a quality service might discover that this COVID disruption, although there will be a short blip because of the hit on the economy around the world, it actually might be in our favor in the future because people now realize that this economy exists and can work. So I think it probably depends on how good your relationships are with your clients and how good the quality is of the work that you provide as to whether you're going to feel too much of an effect of this as a gig economy worker. Now what about those on the ground, those gig workers, those transportation drivers, like Uber drivers, Lyft drivers or the food delivery personnel, what's to happen to them if this were to drag on for another one year or two years? Yeah. Well, you see, Lili, I mean, let's not forget that all of the disruptions that have been coming our way for the last five or 10 years are still coming. So let's take Uber as an example. You know, Uber obviously was a huge disruptor to the taxi industry all around the world, but Uber themselves for the last two or three years have been experimenting quite aggressively with driverless cars to take the drivers out of the Uber cars as well. And the digital disruptions of artificial intelligence, of automation, of robotics, all of those have been coming for a while. And actually, I think the COVID disruption is likely to accelerate those digital disruptions as well. So anybody, whether it is an Uber driver or a banker or here in South Africa where I'm locked down at the moment, I'm working with a company that's bringing automation and robotics into mining. And here in South Africa, we've been told that only companies that can guarantee physical distancing of two meters or six feet between people, they're the only companies that are allowed to open or at least even think of opening again for operations. And so mines have had to very quickly think about how do we keep the miners who go down into those deep South African gold and platinum and uranium and coal mines? How do we keep those miners two meters apart? And the answer is, well, you put machines down there and you automate the mines. And so I've been working with a company that is involved in automating mines. They've never been busier than they are now because people are wanting to accelerate some of those fourth industrial revolution themes, if you like. So I just think it's going to be a fascinating time over the next few years. Obviously, the next few months is a little bit difficult and chaotic because of the economics shutdown because of the lockdown. But I don't think the world's going to look the same at all when we come out of the other side of that lockdown period however long it takes. I like how you put it that this is actually an acceleration. But we do have this group of ground workers. Do you think that's another industry that we should be channeling them to maybe the healthcare industry that is suffering a shortage? Well, you know what, it's very difficult to make those sort of shifts in a quick space of time. You know, you can't learn how to be an emergency doctor in six months and then volunteer to go into a COVID affected hospital, for example. So what we need to do is we need to remind ourselves all around the world that there are a significant number of people in a variety of professions who are going to be deeply impacted by the economic effects of the lockdown. And that's not a political statement. I know a lot of countries around the world are having deep political debates at the moment about how long we should keep lockdown and the balancing act of the medical and healthcare issues and then the economic issues on the other side. And I'm not trying to make a political statement because I think we have to get that balance. We have to open the economy and keep people safe and healthy. And in doing that, we need to recognize that there are a significant number of people, waiters at restaurants, as you say, Uber drivers, air hostesses on airlines, hotel staff. These people are not going to be able to go back to work anytime soon. Even if the government lifts the restrictions and says that you can go to a restaurant and you can fly, most people around the world are still going to be nervous of doing that. And customers are not going to rush back into public spaces. Are we going to rush back to big music concerts, to big sports events when you just realize that COVID is still in the system? Probably not. And so there are millions of people around the world who really do need assistance. A lot of governments have stepped up already. Most governments haven't done enough yet. From an individual perspective, this is a wake-up call to all of us everywhere that we live in a deeply disruptive world at the moment where there is no such thing as job security. There's nobody in the world who's got a secure job. We all have to be thinking about the skill set that is required from a digital world. And that's what the rest of the 2020s is going to be about. Now talking about healthcare, do you foresee a trend in universal healthcare becoming the norm? Because I think one of the witnesses that COVID-19 crisis is exposed is that a lot of people have no access to basic healthcare. So do you see that becoming the norm, universal healthcare? Well, I just answered your previous question by saying I wasn't trying to make a political point. Obviously, for an American audience in the USA, it's almost impossible to answer your question without making a political point. But I think you're exactly right. Let me use South Africa as an example. We are one of the world's most unequal countries in terms of wealth inequality. I've got a lot of rich people and a lot of poor people in the country. And although we do have a government healthcare system that does look after everybody, it really is inadequate for the poorest people in the country. And in fact, part of the stimulus package COVID-19 response has been a significant amount of money coming from the government for the public healthcare system. And certainly countries around the world in America obviously is your example number one, where healthcare hasn't been something that has been given by right to every citizen in the country. I honestly do think that there will be significant conversations about this in the next few years. And obviously, this is one of the big themes coming up in the American elections as to which model of healthcare makes the most sense. And that's going to be an even bigger conversation if you can imagine that it's bigger than it has been. I think in America, it's obviously going to be one of the single defining features of the voting taking place in October this year. For me, I must say that I appreciate living in a country and being a citizen of a country where I know that if I do get sick, they're not going to take my house away. I'm not going to have to get into debt that I have a system that can look after me. And that I do think makes a hang of a difference to the way that a country and an individual responds to a medical crisis like this. I managed to drag you into politics. Now let's talk about retail. I enjoy taking my daughter to the supermarket and I foresee myself continuing to do that because it's part of her learning experience. But when it comes to heavy grocery, we order our stuff online even before the crisis. But with the crisis, a lot of people are doing their purchases online. Do you foresee that as a sustainable growing trend that people is going to be migration from shopping on the ground to shopping online? I absolutely do. And I think I put out a video a few days ago about my list of potential winners and losers. Obviously, there's a huge list of losers at the moment in terms of companies and industries that are going to be hard hit by COVID. But there's a fascinating list of winners. And I think one of the significant industries that's going to see a big bump is the online retailers. You know, there's quite a few people who feel that they can't shop online. I know this, I have three teenage daughters at home and they swear blind that you can't order clothes online. You know, you have to go to the shop and try them on because every single cut is different. And also, of course, just going shopping is an experience. But right now, the clothing shops are not allowing you to try on clothes and they are not allowing you to bring clothes back to the shops if they weren't the right size. And of course, some of this has got to do with just us being, we don't know yet in terms of does COVID stay on clothing and cotton and fabric too long. And so the shops are just being a little bit cautious about this. We are being cautious about going out to the shops and we're needing to keep that physical distance between us. And so some people don't have a choice right now. They're ordering things online that they have never ordered online before. And if they have a good experience, and this is the point, if they have a good experience, they might realize we can do this in the future. We don't have to stop doing this. And that maybe is a really important message to businesses at the moment. And that is make sure you do, if you have work to do, if you still have customers and you still delivering products and services to those customers, do your best work. You know, don't deliver it in a crisis mentality. Because right now, if people have a good experience of connecting and engaging with you, because they are so stressed and anxious and in such a difficult time, you are earning such trust points with them. You are developing a sense of engagement with them that would take you years to develop in normal operations. That you might find you have superbly loyal customers after the lockdown is finished and COVID is just a memory. So I honestly do think that online e-commerce, e-tailing, as we call it, is certainly set to be one of the big winners out of the current crisis. Now, let's assume that your three teenage daughters enjoy their experience shopping online and as millions of teenagers and other consumers around the world. So we see a bigger, larger e-commerce space. Would that affect in how the businesses handle their real estate? Because here in Singapore, land is very scarce. So we par family one on top of another in high-rise buildings, skyscrapers, but we have massive school campuses. We have massive shopping malls. We have massive office complex. Do you see these businesses giving up some of their real estate as a, you know, it could be an opportunity to cut their overhead costs as well? Do you see that? Absolutely. You know, Lily, we are in the middle of one of the greatest experiments in the future of work ever undertaken in human history. And that's the experiment of working from home. You know, there are so many buses who have not allowed their staff to work from home. Lots of people have wanted to and their companies have said, no, you're not allowed to. You don't have permission. Now, of course, you don't have the choice. And we're suddenly discovering that maybe it's possible. Even more than possible, many people are discovering that they actually like it. They enjoy it. They're not missing rush hour traffic at all. I mean, who would? They actually discovering that they're not as distracted at home. It's actually their colleagues that distract them in the office and they're getting more done at home. They enjoying it. And I think companies might discover that their employees are happier, more productive and more engaged. So I mean, it's not going to be the same for everybody, of course, but there are going to be a significant number of people who find that working from home works for them. And you're exactly right. I think I was working with a commercial property company just last week. And they are very, very nervous. They are nervous that a significant number of people won't come back to the office. And all those big office complexes in the CBDs around the world are going to start standing empty. Of course, very quickly, the tenants, the big corporates are going to say, we don't want to pay for all of this empty space. And that's going to free up a lot of space. You mentioned something that is a very interesting way you asked the question, because you also mentioned schools and homes. And I think that education and our private properties are also going to see a big shift. Education is going to be hugely disrupted. Think of it in a corporate space. So with our kids, we'll just say go back to school and they'll go back to school. But in a corporate space, a lot of companies have spent a lot of money putting together courses, executive development programs. I've spent, this is a lot of the work that I used to do. Travelling around the world, I used to come to Singapore often to work with some of the big banks there. And you know, it's a huge expense to get everybody into a room to do two or three days of an executive development program. And I think now that people are getting used to Zoom meetings and getting used to doing a lot of the stuff online, they're going to ask, why do I have to fly all the way to that conference venue? Why do I have to take three days away from home when we can actually do it online? And when we do get face to face again, we're going to have to change our educational style. We're going to have to change the way we engage in learning and development because I think otherwise people are going to say, what a waste of money to just sit in a classroom and do something we could have done online. And that probably will flow to universities and maybe even into schools as people begin to think, is this the best way to transfer information and develop people? And I think we might discover a huge disruption. And then finally you talked about homes. I'm sitting in my home now. I suppose you are as well. And I've had to set myself up with a professional studio, kick the family out of one of the rooms in the house and make sure that I can set this up so that I can do my work from home. And it might be interesting, you know, if we look as a family and say, this house isn't big enough to have dad and mom working from home, and it's not big enough dad for you to have a whole studio. And so we might actually have to move house. And I think there might be, if the commercial property has a drop in occupancy, it might be that, you know, residential property has a massive boom as people feel the need to shift to their living arrangements. At the moment, all of those are just scenarios and speculation. But I think it's highly likely that we will shift our physical world around quite a bit at the end of this COVID crisis. Yeah, home prices here are very expensive. Don't let my daughter hear that. No, Graham, I know that you are futurist and you look to the future, but I'm wondering in your work, how much do you look back to look to the future? Because I imagine you have to look at historical data, historical events to establish some kind of a pattern in your line of work. How much do you look back? Oh, what a great question. You know, my business card says futurist, but actually in my heart, I'm a historian. You're exactly right. You know, we, a lot of the work futurists do is to try and identify patterns, look for systems and how those systems work. Of course, the trick is, and this is what our team at Tomorrow Today focuses on, we've always tried to focus on disruptive change. And that's been one of our selling points is around what's not a pattern? What's not going to be repeated? But the answer is that history doesn't repeat itself, but it does have a rhythm to it. It does, as somebody once said, it doesn't repeat, but it does run. And there are patterns. So for example, and this is maybe an interesting and an important one, you know, 100 years ago, one of the most significant events happened in human history. And that was the 1918 flu, sometimes called the Spanish flu. And, you know, if you ask people what was the biggest killer of people in the last century, most people would probably think of World War One and World War Two and so on. But actually that Spanish flu or the flu of 1918 killed way more people than both the first and the second World War combined. We don't learn about it in school and we don't sort of have it in our memories. But when we look at that flu, there was a very significant pattern. It was called waves. And there were three waves of the flu. There was the first wave that killed a few million people and then everybody thought, sure, you know, we got over that and it wasn't that bad. A few months later, as winter came back, at the end of 1918 in the Northern Hemisphere at least, a second wave came which was the most devastating wave. And then that wave subsided after a few months. And then the third wave actually started in Australia during the Southern Hemisphere winter. And so, you know, that 100 years ago provides us with a very clear warning that we need to be careful. We've only had the first wave of COVID-19. And if we're not careful, and I think you guys in Singapore are beginning to get a little bit nervous that there might be a second wave starting in South Korea, in Singapore, maybe even in China. And the authorities, because of their understanding of history, are moving very, very quickly to try and make sure that that doesn't happen. And so, yes, absolutely. You know, a futurist looks into the future. We say what patterns do we have that that maybe help us to predict? And then also, of course, the question has to be what isn't going to be repeated? What is completely new and novel and that we've never seen before? Yeah, unfortunately, it seems to that, you know, humanity is so pick-headed. We don't always learn from history. Just look at SARS, look at H1N1. There are history repeating itself. We have continued to ravage the earth. We have continued to disrespect the boundaries, the natural boundaries of the animals in the wild. We think it's okay to cage a pangolin next to a snake and expect them to be living happily in distress. We have a question from a viewer. I'm going to read it out to you. She would like to know, or maybe it's a heat. How is the relationship of COVID and climate change seen in South Africa? Well, you know what? We take climate change fairly seriously in South Africa. We are now in the eighth or the ninth year of one of the worst droughts we've ever experienced. And that's true not just in South Africa, but across a lot of Africa. We're a water scarce continent, and I have been quite dramatically hit by severe weather pattern changes. And so we've been trying to shift our electricity supply to renewables. We get a lot of sunshine, which is fantastic in South Africa. So we, you know, trying to get solar going and wind power and so on. So I honestly hope that because we can see through this COVID crisis that it is possible for the world's governments to get together and to do something dramatic to deal with the crisis, that after the COVID crisis is history, that we put the same amount of energy and effort into some of the climate crisis issues. Because in my opinion, those are just as damaging and dangerous to human life on our planet as COVID is right now. So hopefully, we recognize that we have the ability to make dramatic changes to the way that we live and the way that we engage in the world, and that we use that knowledge to fix other problems, wealth inequality, other diseases maybe, and of course climate change. Well, Graeme so much. I wish we have more time on that very prudent note. I just want to thank you for your invaluable insight. Thank you for the generosity of your time and the sharing of your expertise this evening. Thank you so much, Graeme. Thank you. My pleasure. Thank you.