 Hey guys, so this is part two to last week's video, so if you haven't watched that one already, I highly recommend you check it out before seeing this one. Four countries of particular interest for Turkey and the Black Sea region are the Guam countries, Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova. The four countries are all allied with each other, mostly against Russia, but Turkey also maintains good relations with all these countries. I'll get back to the Asian countries in a minute. I see them as more likely to be part of the Turkish sphere of influence in the end. Anyways, Ukraine and Moldova both face separatist movements which are backed by Russia, and though Ukraine is currently seeking protection from the West, such a move is unwanted by most Westerners. The only reason they would want to do this is to weaken Russian influence, but we'll see what happens with this in the future. However, Turkey has very close ties to Ukraine, especially considering the close cultural and linguistic ties the Turks have to the Crimean Tatars. Ukraine may seek some sort of military protection from Turkey in the future, and seeing Turkey's current foreign policy strategy, it would not surprise me if Turkey sent troops to aid Ukraine. The country has already sent money to Ukraine's military under the pretenses that they use Turkish military equipment. In the case of Moldova, the country has been mostly committed to neutrality, though in recent years it has shown interest in integrating with the West by joining the EU. However, the country has a connection to Turkey through the Gagau's Turks that live in the South of the country, and Turkey has given economic aid to the area to help develop it. In summary, I'm not sure whether these two countries will be part of the Turkish orbit or not in the coming decades, for two main reasons. There are geographic separation and competing influence in the region. Though Turkey is clearly interested in the region, Russia is more aggressive about pursuing its goals in the two countries. And while both countries have shown great interest in cooperating with the West, Western Alliance to see these countries as extra baggage, as they are unwilling to face Russia. Moving back to the Caucasus, and we reach some of the most likely contenders for countries that would inevitably be sucked into Turkish orbit. Turkey has sent many troops to Azerbaijan for its war against Armenia, and the two countries have some of the closest cultural ties for any two countries on Earth. Turkey has invested a lot of money to help Azerbaijan develop its energy sector, and Azerbaijan has become rich in comparison to its neighbors due to its reserves of crude oil. A massive pipeline runs from there through Georgia to Turkey, and Azerbaijan is the primary gas supplier for Turkey. In many ways, Azerbaijan is already in Turkey's orbit. Georgia's relationship with Turkey is a little more complicated, but more likely than not, Georgia would seek Turkish protection from Russia, who currently has troops in the two disputed regions of the country, if relations between Georgia and Russia went south. Turkey can also manipulate Georgia with much more ease due to its geographic proximity. With all this talk about the Caucasus, I really can't skip Armenia. The fact that the nation has stayed around as long as it has is nothing short of a miracle. Its two largest neighbors are much larger, and relations between Armenia and its neighbors are extremely hostile. Considering all the factors I have mentioned, I don't believe Russia will be able to or even have the will to hold on to its influence there, and the country will probably eventually fall into Turkish influence. How exactly they will handle Armenian affairs is out of the scope of what this video covers, but the country will either have a pro-Turkish leader, which seems very unlikely for the Armenian population, or a Turkish slash Azeri governor or general controlling the country. Syria and Iraq are practically failed states, and are countries that Turkey has controlled in the past. Of course, they weren't referred to that exactly, as their modern borders were formed via European colonization. Anyways, Turkey already has occupied territory in northern Syria, and to keep its borders secure, it seems pretty likely that they might try to consolidate full power in these countries. Unlike, let's say, Bosnia, which would be a country closely associated with Turkey, the parts left of Syria and Iraq would become occupied territories. However, I don't know if all of Iraq could be retained under Turkish influence, as Iran, the self-proclaimed protector of the Shia Muslim world, may step in to occupy the Shia majority areas of the country. Saudi Arabia is likely to be divided in a similar manner. With the country having a high reliance on oil, in which most of its extraction is done by foreign laborers who live in slave-like conditions, and no preparations for a post-oil economy, Saudi Arabia seems doomed for destruction. Turkey may occupy the western areas of the country, especially those territories of which were previously under Ottoman influence. Iran would most likely swallow up the Shia majority areas. As for the Gulf states, I would predict that the Emirates and Oman would associate with Turkey, and at least join the Turkish-led Commonwealth for protection against a growing Iran. Qatar is a more interesting case, as it holds strong ties with both Turkey and Iran. I'm not really sure where that country will go. As for Yemen, it's another failed state that was once under Ottoman control, or at least the western half was. It may just be the nail in the coffin for competition of control of the Arabian Peninsula. But other than this, and the idea of being a stabilizing force in the region, I don't see any other reason Turkey would be interested in occupying the country. The only other country I can think of that may try to seek influence there is Ethiopia, but frankly, this is a bit far-fetched, so I won't expand on it. States of the Levant would probably be subject to Turkish influence and join the Commonwealth. If Turkey was militarized enough in this scenario to outright occupy Syria and Iraq, it would be most reasonable to assume that they would probably have at least some political or military presence in the countries of Lebanon, Israel, Palestine, and Jordan. I saw one map that tried to predict the Turkish sphere of influence in 2050, and I had all the countries in the Middle East and Northeast Africa under Turkish influence, except for Israel. I find this foolish, and so would most people if they know anything about Erdogan's current attitude towards the state. Granted, this map was created in 2009, but still. It's time to move to the final region that Turkey will likely expand its sphere of influence in, Africa. Turkish troops are already stationed in several countries there, but most notably Libya and Sudan. Both countries are failed states, and though Sudan now has a transitional military government, the country is still rather unstable, and it's uncertain what will happen in the future. In Libya, with the civil war wrapping up, Turkish influence could depend on whether the new Libyan government is willing to cooperate with Turkish investments, or if Libya destabilizes drastically again, and Turkey takes the opportunity to occupy the country. Egypt may truly be the most interesting case out of all these countries. The thing is, it could easily fall into Turkish hands if the timing was right. The country has faced severe instability over the past 10 years, starting with the Arab Spring, and the country's rapidly growing population getting poorer by the day. Extremist factions could pop up across Egypt, especially since the Muslim Brotherhood is centered there. Turkey would likely use this to their advantage, especially if the unrest in Egypt happens at a time when Turkey has already secured much of its other ambitions in Asia and Africa. Somalia is the final country I will discuss. Despite Turkish troops being in the country, I find it unlikely they will try to occupy the country. It's just too impractical, and it is very far away from the Fatherland. Honestly, Turkey would rather have Ethiopia deal with Somalia and add it to their sphere of influence, as the two countries are already noteworthy partners. So, this is what I believe the Turkish sphere of influence will look like in the next few decades. Most of these countries will still be independent, but will likely be part of a Turkish-led Commonwealth that could work similarly to the European Union. There would be some occupied territories, though. Unfortunately for Armenia, they are surrounded by neighbors that are hostile to them and are much more powerful than them, and I don't think Turkey will allow the country to have its own government. Some kind of occupation will probably take place. In the case of Syria and Iraq, they will probably be militarily occupied, along with Yemen. There may be some sort of informal occupation in the remnants of modern-day Saudi Arabia, or possibly a new allied country being created out of it. Depending on the situation in North Africa, these countries can either have allied governments or be occupied by the Turkish military. It's important to note that Turkey would most likely not annex a very large area and create a truly reformed Ottoman Empire. This influence is more political and militaristic, in a similar way to how the United States has great political and military influence in its allies. Well, that was a long one. Comment below if you'd like to see any similar analyses of rising global powers in my visions for what could happen. I hope I didn't step on too many toes with this one, but unfortunately, history and politics happen to be like that in the end. Thank you all for watching. Be sure to like, subscribe, and share this video with all of your friends. Thank you to everyone who has helped me get to 1,000 subscribers. 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