 Hi everyone today is May 23rd and a very busy week in the United States. I am Miss Schneider chief strategist of marketgauge.com and I want to bring you a little bit of a backdrop and then we'll go specifics into some of the commodities and the dollar and the oils. So I think this tells the whole story right here in terms of will they or will they not solve the debt ceiling crisis will the Fed continue to be aggressive and what have you. We've been talking about this as a scenario of stagflation and trading ranges and I don't think it could be put any better than looking at the spy chart which right now on a daily basis you can see ran into the resistance at the Bollinger band after having an inside day yesterday is now breaking down which does definitely look like we could see another move maybe to test around the four ten level supported by this two year moving average or the twenty three months just shy of two year moving average which has been extremely reliable as far as telling us exactly what's happening we are at the top of a range whether or not we break down under the middle of the range remains to be seen and of course where we could we potentially stop to me would be more around the six or seven year business cycle or around that three two or thirty two hundred level if you're looking at SPX but you cannot really look at the whole picture obviously Nasdaq has done well on the backs of all the growth stocks I think a lot of those right now are in a situation where profit taking should be coming into play and obviously nothing's going to be impervious to bad news of course you know from my aspect I do believe that they will come to some agreement they just being who they are love the drama of it all and want people to pick sides I mean that's just as easy as it gets here in terms of politics in the US but we have to look at the small cap so look they stopped right at the 200 day moving average momentum wise they've gotten right to the top of the Bollinger band and we actually have seen a bit of a bullish divergence in that the momentum has the 200 above the 50 and the momentum above where the price is above the 50 but not above the 200 but look at the difference here on that 23 month moving average I was just telling you about where we saw the spy get up right to the top of it in this case it would be around 198 for the small caps it's really sitting here right on that six to eight year business cycle or 80 month moving average which this along with retail as seen through the lens of XRT is telling us that if we cannot play nice here with all of the factors that be and we start to break down particularly in May on a monthly basis under this 80 month both here and in the consumer area then those calls for recession can certainly turn out to be true so moving right into the dollar we can see that there's been and we've talked about this a little bit of a flight to safety to the U.S. dollar against all of the other currencies and it really was pretty evidence about the dollar breaking out not only because I had shown you once before that its 23 month was respected at 100.7 but that this was breaking out over this 50 day moving average which clearly it's doing and we mentioned that if it got through 103 it could get to 105 now where would I change my mind if I were looking at this from a longer or even a day to a couple of days perspective I would say right now the momentum is in the favor of the dollar going higher which but just looking at the dollar purely from the dollar's sake it's telling us it wants to go higher I would say I would agree with that unless it breaks down under 103 then I think we would have to take another look at a move back down to the 50 day moving average and of course you know under 100.7 to me that would not be a very good sign. If we hold up here and get through these most recent highs that we're seeing here which is in this case would be 103.60 then I think you really have to start looking at this 200 day moving average as a potential target maybe a little bit shy of it but figure around 105 much. So let's move immediately on to energy particularly looking at west Texas intermediate crude and we talked about Brent in the past but if we look at this we have very similar patterns in that we had a new low reversal pattern confirmed the next day we've been chopping around but we've really held that seventy level seventy ish sixty nine eighty to seventy which again tells me that right now the direction for oil looks to be higher and there was some threat this morning about the sorties that come out and said oh yeah well you shouldn't be short oil whatever that means but what it means to me right now is that if we can get over this 50 day moving average just a little bit higher let's call it seventy four fifty at least for a day or two that would actually confirm a move from a bearish phase to a recuperation phase and also would confirm that perhaps we have had some kind of bottom in place and I would follow that looking for at least the move up to around seventy seven and I would have my stop very immediately back under that 50 if it fails it's really that simple buy it on a breakout over a major moving average phase change if you're wrong you know right away because it closes back under that 50 on the flip side if it cannot get to the 50 day moving average and starts to roll down I would say you have a pretty good pivotal point here somewhere around this seventy level if let's call it seventy so in between seventy and seventy four fifty right now could be choppy a very short term kind of trade but under seventy then I think it would probably be in line with no debt ceiling IWM breaking down spy getting closer to four hundred and all that happening at once because the U.S. would start to embrace for that recession let's move on quickly to natural gas so if this isn't the great example of what I just told you which is something breaks out over the fifty you get a little bit of follow through and then whamma the next day it starts to sell off if I were buying up when this broke out if I was day trading I might have taken a little bit of a profit because you would have had a little bit of money like twenty cents which is ten percent on a two dollar instrument but on the other hand I even if that didn't occur I didn't get out and I was kind of holding it it would have been time to get out once it broke down under the fifty and here we are back under that fifty day moving average so again I think that this is an instrument I prefer not to touch but if you really do want to be a trader let's say of the July contract of natural gas now you really need to see what happens back at that two forty level which it looks like it's going to head to if it holds two forty starts flipping back around gets back through the fifty day moving average once again it could probably show that it is fatigue on the sell side this is a really good reversal but of course at that point now it would have to prove more to us by getting through this two eighty and then like I said maybe maybe maybe we get a move up closer to three and then three fifty which would actually be a really decent move again for something that is such a cheap instrument okay let's go on now to a couple of other things that I think on merit watching so gold is highly technical but also very much a factor in when you're dealing with irrational minds let's put it that way so at this point right now we're finding support if you take a look at the low down from this area right here which was back in March so those March lows which are so much have been a factor in the overall stock market right now is becoming a little bit of a factor here even in the gold and we've traded pretty much right on it so that gives us a nice level right so we take a look at this level right here at one thousand nine hundred and fifty and and so really it's going to be a matter of nineteen fifty holds we can get back above it's fifty day moving average which it broke down which really would be conveniently be about two thousand great we'll see a higher move if this was just a bounce off of the one fifty because of fear but really can't get up past let's say nineteen ninety then I would be quick to exit and of course if it breaks down under nineteen fifty what does that mean and to me that would mean most likely another visit to nineteen hundred possibly even eighteen eighty and just when the public opinion was great basically leaving grains for dead we had talked about the trading range in DBA so that's something to keep an eye on that's the ETF for a lot of the commodities take a look at here what's happening in corn should learn to recognize this beautiful reversal pattern when it happens on these future charts so basically new sixty plus day low next day it closes above it and then you get some follow through and that's exactly what's happening here with the corn futures so again now we've run into a lot of congestion if you look at the lows here of this whole period of congestion that we had end of April early May we're having a little trouble getting through it but above five eighty figure five eighty five eighty one I see no reason why we can see a trip to six hundred and of course you have to take things in levels here when it comes to these commodities look how important that six hundred level is even going back to here and then of course through six hundred next area we're going to be looking at would be that fifty day moving average or around six oh seven six ten where would this be wrong at this point I would use the high of this day which would be about five forty one and if that starts to break down excuse me five sixty one sorry five sixty one and under that five sixty one then I would start to say well maybe this was just some quick short covering rally and the grains will work itself lower let's take a look at wheat as well we'll talk about timely looking at wheat right now this is exactly what I just mentioned to you which is the new sixty plus day low and reversal however maybe I would take a modicum of patience here to see if you get follow through by the time you hear this would be actually tomorrow on the wheat futures we'll also keep an eye on the on the volume patterns here it's still not over as I'm talking to you but you would like to see some accumulation of volume either today or on the follow through if it gets through today's high tomorrow and finally let's take a look at my favorite barometer of all which of course would be sugar futures so here again you have the classic reversal pattern only you had it in reverse we saw a new high it failed it had an inside day the next day and then it closed underneath the low of the day it made the new high typically when we see that type of move we look for about a five to ten percent move lower so if you're looking at ten percent basically you're looking at a move to around 24 and that really actually looks very nice technically because that's where your 50 day moving averages coming in and it almost looked today like sugar was going to start to take off again but really when you have these type of reversal patterns you either want to wait for them to play out against the major technical signal like what I just mentioned here against the fifty or around twenty four cents or you want to wait for those highs to be taken out in this case it would be about twenty six eighty in which case you know now that it's getting ready for a new leg up focused and just bringing you back to the very beginning keep your eye on those trading ranges in the monthly charts particularly in the Russell 2000 small caps and in the S&P 500 that's it for now thanks so much