 Russia's resources are exhausted and it will not be able to prevent the counter-offensive of Ukraine. Analysts from the US-based Institute for the Study of War, ISW, have pointed out that Ukraine will be able to start a large counter-offensive during the next few months if the West provides it with the necessary military aid. Russia's costly military campaign in Ukraine has likely significantly depleted Russian equipment and manpower reserves necessary to sustain a successful large-scale offensive in eastern Ukraine, according to data analysis by the Institute. ISW analysts believe that Russia's inability to regenerate expended mechanized vehicles in the short term further restricts Russian maneuver warfare capabilities, forcing Russian troops to rely on older equipment. At the same time, the analysts assess that Ukraine likely continues to have a window of opportunity to initiate a large-scale counter-offensive over the next few months, but its ability to do so likely rests heavily on the speed and scale at which the West provides it with the necessary material, particularly tanks and other armored vehicles. The Institute notes that Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to announce measures for further escalation of the war in Ukraine, major new Russian mobilization initiatives, or any other significant policy in his planned address to the Russian Federal Assembly on 21st February. Putin postponed his annual address to the Federal Assembly several times in 2022, likely in hopes of eventually using this speech to celebrate sweeping Russian victories in Ukraine but was unable to do so due to the lack of such victories and amidst heightened criticism of the Kremlin's management of the war. Russian military failures in Ukraine continue to deny Putin the ability to present military success to the Russian people, according to the ISW report. The ISW analysts say the stubborn Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut itself, despite the cost in Ukrainian lives and material, would prevent Putin from even claiming that Russia has secured that city in the war's anniversary, a claim that could give Putin the Russian military and the Russian public renewed hope of winning and possibly increase the Kremlin's willingness to demand more of its people to press on.