 Defections raise Kanu's stakes as presidential heavyweight battle for massive vote. And Aynag is, of course, being reacted to as the disapprove of political campaigns in worship centres. This is Plus Politics and I am Mary Anacorn. With Lagos topping the list of states with most registered voters, Kanu is the state with the second highest number in the nation. Politicians and political parties in Nigeria beginning to position themselves as the suitable grooms to win the hearts of the Kanu state residents, a state in the north of the country which has evolved over time in advance of the general elections in 2023. This may have something to do with the state's total number of registered votes. Kanu had more than five million voters in 2019 according to Aynag's voter list. Well today we're joined by two gentlemen to break down this conversation. Ibrahim Kabara is a political commentator and a former YPP governorship aspirant and comrade Kabiru Dakhatta is the Executive Director Centre for Awareness, Justice and Accountability. Mr. Kabara, thank you so much. Kabiru, thank you so much for joining us. Thank you for having me. Great. Let's talk about what's happening in Kanu states. Like I said in the opener, it's one of the most courted states right now. We see presidential candidates flocking to Kanu states, of course, trying to also get involved in the politics behind whoever has the power to give them these votes. But we also see that there's been this divide of voters or following between three people, the sitting governor, the former governor, who is now the presidential candidate of the YNNPP, and of course the now PDP member, Mr. Shakarao, of course, these three men seem to have the upper hand when it comes to politics in Kanu states. So let's start with that. Why do these people have such a cult following? And why does the average politician or let's say presidential candidate have to, one way or the other, court these three? I think to start with the presidential candidates who are propping Kanu to get support of the voters is because, you know, for the last five consecutive elections we had, there's one major factor that almost dominated the politics in Kanu, especially when it comes to the issue of presidential election. That factor is the Bohari factor. And for 2023 we are going to have presidential election without that factor. So presidential elections are going to see how they can take advantage of Bohari's exit to get support of the voters. And for the five elections we had, presidential elections, no presidential candidate that contested with Bohari that got the minimum 25% in Kanu state. And some of these candidates are still contesting for 2023 elections. One of them is Artikawa Bokor of PDP. We couldn't get 25% of the vote cast in Kanu in 2019 and still because of Bohari's factor. And today there is no Bohari. So Artikawa is trying to see how he could get votes, both votes are from Kanu state. For Konkoso, people are seeing Konkoso as the likely replacement of Bohari's factor in Kanu state because he has followers, he still has the influence in Kanu's politics and in politics of some states in the northern part of the country. You talk of Govnaganduji. You cannot in any way compare Govnaganduji with the other two political gladiators in Kanu. Govnaganduji is relevant in the system because of the position he is occupying. And also, people are seeing Govnaganduji as not a strong politician, a national politician to influence votes for a candidate. So you talk of these two people and even among the two, Konkoso is the dominant politician in the state. For Shekarao, when you talk of national politics, Shekarao tested his popularity in 2011 when he contested presidential elections. What happened? We could only got 526,000 votes in 2011. He couldn't get the 25% from his state when he was a Govno. So also in 2015, Shekarao supported Jonathan. He moved to PDE, he was given an ministerial appointment to support good luck availing Jonathan. But even at that, Shekarao could not support Jonathan to get reasonable votes. He could only got 10% of the votes passed in Kanu, he could only got 215,000. So if you talk of national politics and presidential elections in Kanu, the two gladiators, Ganduji and Shekarao, cannot in any way compare themselves with Konkoso. This is being the fact that even with the dominant popularity of Buhari in the first elections, we talk about 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015 and 2019. For all the three elections before 2015, Buhari maintained 1.6 million votes from Kanu state. But what happened in 2015 when he joined Kanu with Konkoso? Buhari got 1.9% but in 2019, with Buhari as a question of this country, with Ganduji in Buhari's camp in ABC, with Shekarao in Buhari's camp in ABT, the three of them could only got 1.4 million votes. The worst result Buhari ever had in his presidential contest from Kanu. So the three Buhari, for Shekarao, he has stated himself to be a supporting actor. So people are saying why can't Shekarao, instead of jumping from one party to another, to be bold enough to do what Konkoso did? Konkoso adopted a small party. In four months, you can see how the party is gathering momentum, not only in Kanu state but in other states and also southern part of the country. So I don't see Shekarao making any impact in terms of supporting Atiku to get more support. In fact, in one of the articles I have released recently, I advise Atiku not to put so much expectation on Shekarao because Atiku himself can do what Shekarao cannot do for him in Kanu. Atiku got 21% from the presidential vote cast in 2019. Shekarao could only got 90% for himself in 2011. So Atiku also can do something for himself, not necessarily lying for Shekarao, who has little or no political influence as it is because for any movement he had, leaving one political party to another, some of his followers would refuse to follow him. Recently we have heard one of them had an interview with BBC. He said, yes, Shekarao left but we are not going with, we are not following him. It's a current House of Representatives member from Kanu state. So I think we need to contextualize this conversation to make people understand that in Kanu we have our voting pattern that sometimes the voters will look at one person and vote for that person must be. And like I said, Buhari has been the major beneficiary of that factor and is exiting the stage and people are seeing as the likeness, the placement of that Buhari's factor. Great. Joining us also is of course Ibrahim Kabara who is a political commentator and former YPP governorship aspirant. Mr. Kabara, if you can hear me, Kabara is saying that the governor, the sitting governor of the state in Kanu does not have as much political prowess as of course a Kwankwa Soul who is now a presidential candidate and of course a Shekarao who has again jumped ship from the NNPP to the PDP. But let us know where you stand. Is this really a three horse race in Kanu state in terms of how the votes will be split or is it, like he said, mostly a Kwankwa Soul takes all? I think the view is, presently the political temperature in Kanu is very hot and no barometer can really give you a very clear reading of where the pendulum of the clock will swing to come 2023. Kanu politics is a consist of majorly three political shed. That is the APC shed is under the incumbent governor of Kanu, while the PDP, you cannot specify who had the political shed there because it is presently a split. Mohammed Abacha and Anin Wiley, as a major division that formed that political shed, while the other shed under NNPP is spearheaded by his Excellency, former governor, former minister, Ravi Musa Kankoto. This shows you that what may likely happen in Kanu in 2023 may be what happened on the 4th December 1991 when the election between NRC and the SDP took place. The former governor, architect Kadeel Ibrahim Gaya, suddenly emerged victorious over Magadji Abdelahi, who was assumed as the clear victory come that election. But just over the night Kanu people suddenly changed direction and voted NRC bringing in Governor Kadeel Ibrahim Gaya. Now if you say the whole shekharu has defected from NNPP to PDP to APC and letter to NNPP and now back to PDP, that may still give him an advantage of being somebody who has massive supporters behind him because he was a governor for 80 years, he was a minister and then presently an incumbent senator. And because of the high respect people who follow him have for him because they say he is a person of high morality, a person of high simplicity, a person who has changed in his religion and they say these are rare virtues that are easily seen in politicians. So Mr. Kabara you are saying that Sen. Shakaral has these characteristics, these virtues that, are you saying that the other politicians, I'm talking about the former governor, Kwon Koso and of course the sitting governor do not also have these qualities and that's why they may probably not have as many followers. I'm trying to understand your point here. Not at all, Kwon Koso has his own style and qualities as well because that's why he is heavily endeared by the youth in particular because the time he spent as governor and as minister he assisted in no small measure a large chunk of youth who are unemployed and who are looking for educational channels to pursue various professional endeavors and he fulfilled that kind of aspiration for them and that has really made him be held highly elated by this class of political voters because out of the number of over 6 million voters in Kano Kwon Koso will boost up having the greater part of the youth behind him because youth constitute almost 73% of any registered voters in any location in Nigeria and so Kwon Koso has that advantage while Shakaral has that advantage which I have enumerated. Let's talk about quickly. I'm so sorry to speak over you quickly. Let's talk about the recent political nomadism that we've seen two of these three exhibits. I think Mr Kabiri Dakasa spoke quickly about that but let's come to it in its entirety. We've seen Shakaral move from one party to another in the space of a very few months and you talked about a following that he has. How are people supposed to trust his choices if these movements are happening in quick successions? Believe me, the defection scenario which really surrounded Shakaral has depleted a number of his followers. So many of them now have known talent as far as their faith is concerned in Shakaral and they are saying they may likely vote or not vote come 2023 and those who will vote may not vote in the direction of Governor Ibrahim Shakaral. These are the things. As for the incumbent Gen Duje, the Wahar effect that surrounded him before has now fizzled out because a number of people are disenchanted on the performance of the ATC at the national and the state arena. So as far as visual projects are concerned, Gen Duje collated very high because he has achieved a lot in executing communal projects desired by the citizens. But despite that, the Wahar effect may not allow him to have an age over his competitors when it comes to the next election. Let me go back to you, Comrade Dakata. It's very interesting what Ibrahim Kabara is saying here about, you know, the governor, the sitting governor. I mean, let's just oppose this with, let's say, Governor Wike in Riverstage who is saying you cannot win these elections without my state. So I'm putting this question to you. Can anybody, let's say, can Governor Gen Duje say this? I mean, again, your colleague here is saying that he's not necessarily done well and he's somewhat lost the trust of the people in Kainu state. And of course, the people are also aggrieved with the performance of the APC at the national level. Where does this put the APC and their ticket or their hopes in winning, you know, some or if not most of Kainu state? I think Gen Duje has not that power to claim that you cannot win. Of course, he can say one cannot win an election without Kainu. But he cannot in any way claim that he has an influential factor to determine somebody's victory in this state. But let me say something about trying to compare Malemi Bram Shekaro and Governor Konkosu. Of course, the two gentlemen have something in common. They are both governors who ate years in the state. They served as ministers of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Konkosu was a minister and Shekaro is a current minister. But can we interrogate the numbers? If we can use numbers to, you know, add value to our conversation. In 2015, the total registered voters in Kainu state were around 5 million. Konkosu contested the senatorial position of Kainu center. He got 728,000 votes. Being the senator with the highest number of votes in 2015. In 2019, when the total registered voters in Kainu, the number was 5.8. Shekaro contested election, the same constituency. But Shekaro got only 506,000 votes. In 2015, Shekaro supported Jonathan. Shekaro was given a ministerial appointment in 2014 in preparation of 2015 election. Jonathan got only 215,000 votes. That was 10% of the votes cast in Kainu in 2015. The PDP which Shekaro worked for in 2015 did not win a single House of Reps member. Did not win a single senator. Did not win a single House of Assembly member. Did not win the Gobernatorial election. So if somebody today come and tell us that Shekaro is influential. He has followers that are ready to vote for him. Then we can ask ourselves where were the followers in 2015. They could not support Shekaro to get more votes for Jonathan. They could not support Shekaro to get one single House of Assembly member. They could not support Shekaro to get one single House of Reps member. They could not support Shekaro to have one senator. But in 2015, like I said earlier, Konkoso supported Buhari. And he got all the elected positions from Kainu state. They won the presidential election. They won the Gobernatorial election. They won the 24 House of Representatives members. They won the three senators. They won the 40 House of Assembly members. So I think for election we need to see the end of it is that victory. And one argument for one point to support this argument is even with the Buhari's popularity for the three elections before 2015. It was only in 2003 when we saw that Buhari's followers followed the same direction with Buhari. That after Buhari's victory, most of the candidates that contested under his ABP then also won the election. Which some of them not even had a single poster in some of the polling units. But in 2007 it was not this case. The vote for his party was in 2011. When Buhari got 1.6 million votes in the presidential election, but he could only win two House of Representatives members, he could not win a single senator, he could not win a single House of Assembly members. So if we're talking of political influence, the numbers, the politicians won, will be our guide. Not just having goodwill for somebody. I agree with him. Malam Shekarao is highly respected, is morally okay, and he has his followers in the stage. But that does not come down to the numbers. Three people jumping from one party to another is making him to lose so many supporters in the stage. All right, quickly, because we're out of time, I'm going to give you a comment. Sorry, Ms. Ibrahim Kabara, I'm just going to give you, finally, what do you see for see happening in Kanu? Now that we have so many people who are, like you said in your words, undecided, you know, voters and non-challenged, as opposed to the many followers, what happens? Earlier, nobody can say where the pendulum, the political pendulum is swinging to. There is general voter efforts up at high now. A lot of voters, registered voters are not going to vote, as they said, they are indifferent. Because they say they are tired of political development in the country. No dividends of democracy has really come down to the level of the poor person. And secondly, even those who agree to come and vote, they said they will only look for personalities and vote for them, not for any political party. So where there is a very good and elegant person who stands for an election, irrespective of which political party he belongs to, he will just be voted. That is just to solve this political crisis. Well, I want to say thank you. Ibrahim Kabara is a political commentator and a former YPP governorship aspirant. And of course, Comrade Kabiru Dakata is the Executive Director Center for Justice. I want to say thank you gentlemen for being part of the conversation. We appreciate your thoughts. Thank you very much. Well, we'll take a quick break and when we come back, we're talking civic responsibility. And of course, we have civic education every Thursday on this show. Today, we're going to be talking about, of course, INX disapproval of political campaigns in worship centers. It will be very interesting to be with us.