 The most important Fed meeting without a rate hike is upon us here now is George Rosnack of Wells Fargo Investment Institute. George, we don't know if the Fed will raise interest rates. Probably not, but we are expecting an announcement on the balance sheet and that's why this is such an important meeting. Would you agree with that? Agreed. Yeah, they've coached the market that they will be focusing a little bit more on the balance sheet this time and they've done it in sort of a passive way in the sense that they won't actually be selling securities. They'll be actually buying a little bit less as those securities mature. And that's an important distinction, but once the Fed starts this process, how do you expect both bonds and stocks to react? Well, I think that they've actually done a good job coaching the market already about timing around it and the magnitude of it, which they say right now is very small, so only 6 billion of treasuries and 4 billion of mortgages on a monthly basis. That's not going to impact the market very significantly. In fact, when they started talking about that, spreads actually tightened slightly, not widened out a little bit. So I think the market is anticipating this and ready for it. But still, if you go back to 2013 when we had that tapered tantrum, that was just a comment by former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke about, you know, the end or the tapering of quantitative easing and the markets went haywire. We even had somewhat of a tapered tantrum at the end of June when ECB President Mario Draghi basically declared victory on deflation. So those were just comments and it caused a market reaction. Here we have actual action. Yeah, and I think you're right. They're completely scarred a little bit from the tapered tantrum in 2013, which is why they've stepped into this so slightly, so softly, and they've actually tried to coach the markets along the way that they're thinking about it. Here's what the plan might look like. Here's what the magnitude and here's a start date. I think they've done a really good job educating the market and that the market's very ready for that right now. So no real risk of any kind of correction or any overreaction once the Fed actually pulls the trigger. There's always the risk of that, but we think it's minimal. We think, again, if you're going to see any bit of backup within the market, it might be more in the mortgage side rather than the treasury side. The demand for treasuries right now is just going to far supersede exactly how much they're going to take off the table. All right, let's talk a little bit about interest rates. We said earlier that they're probably not going to raise at this September meeting. Right. What is the base case for December? Because the Fed went into this year saying they're going to hike three times in 2017. Do they stick to that outlook and what outlook do they give for 2018? Yeah, so they've raised it twice this year, once in March and once in June. They're going to pause, we think, very likely in September, sorry, in September. We think base case that they're actually going to raise again in December. It's roughly 50-50 at this point. Our base case scenario is that they will raise in December, which will be right on target. In 2018, their target right now are forecasts, their dot-plots say roughly three times. Our belief is that they'll only raise it actually two times over next year in 2018. Okay. And just before we go, obviously, inflation is key here because the Fed can largely declare victory unemployment if they wanted to. Yeah, I mean very low unemployment rate. And even if you look at sort of the detailed numbers, the U6, the labor force participation, all have improved. And so very strong labor force participation and good employment numbers, its inflation is the key story. Well, and there could be structural reasons as to why inflation has been coming down. It may not just be one-off factors, but we'll watch how it plays out. George Rosnack, thank you so much for joining us. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.