 This is Stink Tech, Hawaii. Community matters here. Asian Review, I'm your host, Bill Sharp. Our show today is the Abbey Era Overer, and our guest is retired US Navy Captain Carl Schuster. Captain Schuster these days is a faculty member at Hawaii Pacific University. He also is a defense contractor, and we're really glad to have him with us. Welcome to the Asian Review. Thank you, sir. Thanks for inviting me. You're welcome. It's great to have you here. Well, get right to it. Is the Abbey Era of prime ministership coming to an end? Not right away. Nothing really moves quickly in Japan. I mean, he's had some reverses. Economy's not doing as well as he promised. His defense minister had to resign. Abbey economics really hasn't panned out. Indeed. There's been some improvement, but not as much as promised. Also, the Japanese people are very, or increasingly wary of defense initiatives. On occasion, the North Koreans do something that generates support for it, but in general, they worry about how far to go, and his defense minister had to resign because she understated the threat Japanese peacekeepers faced in South Sudan, and that's a worry in Japan. Their military is all volunteer, but their military is also older. Typical Japanese soldiers in their late 20s or early 30s, whereas most military majority of the soldiers are in their early 20s, and you'll see the same thing in their Navy. So they're very casualty sensitive and they're very risk sensitive, and they are also very sensitive to how they're portrayed internationally. For them, peacekeepers are there to keep the peace. They're really not comfortable going into a place where there's no peace to keep. It raises up questions of will they go into combat, and if so, how will that play out from purposes of their reputation and whether it's actually true. That's a good observation. I remember in the past when Japan's been involved in peacekeeping exercises or activities or whatever we should call them, they've always had to have other countries provide cover for them, and some of the countries providing cover haven't always been the countries with the greatest military history, which I probably shouldn't say that. Also, Abe is facing some allegations of scandal, as I understand it. At the moment, there isn't a lot of substance to them, but there's an awful lot of smoke, and in Japan, unlike the United States, politicians suffer consequences for even perceived dishonesty. There was a candidate many years ago who argued if he became Prime Minister, he'd get us out of Okinawa. And then he became Prime Minister and suddenly saw the advantages to having us in Okinawa. He had to resign. And so for them, when they make a promise, they absolutely have to keep it. And the allegations are of influence peddling and some differences between what he said he would do and what he would do in respect to governance and ending, shall we say, bad practices. And so the credibility hit if it actually registers. It could bring about his resignation. It's really interesting. As I sit here listening to your comments, I say, well, that's good. The populist electorate is holding the Prime Minister to making them accountable. Yet on the other hand, when you look around Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, I think the electorates there in some ways are so spoiled that one little thing happens and boom, their support evaporates. That's certainly true in Taiwan and South Korea, but that's not necessarily the case in Japan. They make those sorts of chips rather cautiously, but once they decide to move, then it's very fast. But they're very much a consensus culture. I know that's not the stereotype, but it truly is. No, I agree with that. And when I was stationed in Okinawa, Japanese paid for everything. And when I needed a modification made to meet the new security standards imposed after the Walker's firing, Japanese paid for everything so I had to negotiate with them. And for me it was very frustrating because in America we make the decision very quickly. It was about six weeks in negotiations and I thought this is never going to reach fruition. But once they agreed to the plan, it was over within six weeks. Up, done, perfect, met every standard, quality of the workmanship was unequaled. So you go through the consensus building process and the planning process, typical American of which I am, you're going to get very frustrated. But once they decide to go, it's fast. And it's going to work out the same way for Abe. The building of a consensus to get rid of him is going to proceed slowly. His actions will determine whether he can defend it. But if there's any truth to allegations of any kind of dishonesty or play for pay, he's gone. Interesting. I know what you mean. Sometimes for Americans dealing with Asians in a negotiating situation and being in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and China can be very frustrating because as you're saying, Americans want something now. They really don't want to go through this long, tedious, drawn-out process which just sends them up the wall. Okay, well, now when I think back about Abe's tenure in office, I remember the first time he was in office, it was pretty much a disaster. And, you know, legitimately speaking, in his defense, he had some health issues. And so he was no sooner there than gone. But it does seem to me that he has provided stability for Japan that, you know, it was for a certain period of time. The question of the day was, who's the Japanese Prime Minister today? And he just sort of began to learn his name and began to feel a little comfortable with him and boom, they're gone. You know, revolving door. So Abe has provided leadership. He has provided stability. I mean, he has been controversial when it comes to security issues, but I think, you know, pretty much it's been to America's liking the security positions he's taken. It seems to me he's also been pretty supportive on Okinawa. As you said a minute ago, that's a constant form in US and Japanese relations. But, you know, he's done something that he often doesn't get credit for. He has expanded Japan's defense cooperation links. Prior to Prime Minister Abe you didn't see India willing to do a defense cooperation agreement with Japan. He's even sending Japanese naval vessels on patrols into the South China Sea. That's correct, with the Philippines blessing. Right. I mean, when you think about it, that is a major step. No previous Prime Minister could get the Philippines to agree to do any kind of defense cooperation with Japan anywhere. Right. And India was reluctant to work with the Japanese as well. Are there something doing it now? Yeah, exactly. And that's all because of his, well, two things, China's aggressiveness and his willingness to accommodate their side of the equation. He's done it in a very patient what we would consider Japanese way. He didn't just send people and say let's sign an agreement. He offered small steps to demonstrate the value of Japan. He's open to it. His own brand of salami slicing. Exactly. And it's worked out for Japan. Japan has defense cooperative neighbors now, including Vietnam, which it didn't have just 10 years ago. Australia. And they keep trying to improve or get a closer defense relationship with South Korea. And then that's always chancey. Yeah, it really seems to me that it seems to be pretty much of a realist. And a lot of people will say, well, you know, Avi, he's just a war hawk. Look at his relatives. They were all wrapped up in World War II. They were war criminals and all that. And he's just a chip off the old block. But I think it's a realist because I think in the sense that if there's some fear in Japan as there is in every country in Asia, the US might just pack it up and leave. And what are we going to do? We're going to be left out to hang. We're going to be prepared for any eventual outing. And I don't really think that's going to happen, but that's certainly a fear of every Asian government. Indeed. In fact, that's the one region of the world where there was very little reluctance to interact with us. Even the Vietnamese after the war were looking for ways to work with us. I went to their embassy in Belgium many years ago. Vietnamese embassy. And it was interesting to go there. They didn't want to necessarily talk to me. They were friendly. But everyone with a Vietnam campaign ribbon they wanted to talk to. They wanted to see if they fought in the same place, exchange stories. And you have one of those. No, I didn't serve in Vietnam. I've got one. You would have been welcome. The minute they saw a Vietnam campaign ribbon they would eyeball that guy and go to him. And it was a great conversation. It was a great resentment. Then you saw North Vietnamese dishes as well. So they went to a lot of trouble not to offend us. But it was clear they wanted to interact with us. And this is in the early 90s before we sent a ship in there. So the animosity that some of us feel towards them is not reciprocated. Quite the contrary. Although if you go to their war museum they talk about atrocities. I know exactly what you're talking about. Last year in Taiwan I had a really unique experience. Fellow fellows, fellow grantees was from Vietnam and he obviously was a party official of some stature actually. And just kind of sitting there and talking to him, you know, and they're very friendly. He really tried to be friends after, you know, I'm certain he was on the other side of the war, right? It was really quite a moving experience. So I can relate to what you're saying. Well, okay, South Korea, Japan, always the issue comes up, comfort women. And there's always this stigma about Japanese colonialism. 45 years of Japanese colonialism and there's always, I think, a feeling of the Koreans that feel somewhat of an inferiority complex vis-a-vis Japan. I don't know, where's it going to go? I thought when two presidents ago I thought he had a fairly intelligent approach to Japan but then he sort of blew it at the end over a territorial issue, the islands between Japan and South Korea. And then when President Park was in office, he was now in jail, I don't know, she didn't do very well with it. She had troubles all along. I think the problem she had is twofold. Her father served in the Japanese Army in World War II. I agree. I think she carried a lot of baggage because of her father. He restored relations with Japan kind of early in many people's estimation. And she was trying to distance herself from that. And so I think she recognized the need for South Korea and Japan to cooperate together particularly in defense. But when Abe made the family connection he realized that that was a connection she didn't want made and politically couldn't afford. And so the minute that came up she had to instantly be more patriotic than anyone before her. So the people would forget her father was a company commander in the Japanese Army. So there's two sides of that and it's a lesson learned. We made the same mistake in some cases with Lebanon. One of the locals that we associated with was a man named a wonderful human being but he had a green card. And so we went in and we emphasized the fact that he lived in the U.S. and so forth. And what we didn't understand is to the Lebanese in Beirut being associated with us was not a good thing. So we undermined his ability to cooperate with us every time we made that connection and we didn't realize it until it was too late. I sit here and think there are so many leaders of other countries who have gotten U.S. green cards but then all of a sudden they decide to return to the motherland and they just totally want to suppress that. Mai Ying Zhou, former president of Taiwan, he clearly had a U.S. green card. He used to be known as Mark but he totally suppressed all that when he started to run for president. Well we got about one minute here until break and you know one thing about the obvious administration that's interesting to me especially since I focus a lot on Taiwan is this is an administration that has I think really valued Japan's relationship with Taiwan maybe more than other prime ministers. Japan always has a fairly close relationship with Japan, with Taiwan I mean given the political stage in which they perform on and there was even talk in his era of sort of a Taiwan Relations Act Japan style and there's always some chatter about though the Japanese are going to sell decommissioned submarines to Taiwan I'm not sure that's going to happen but just in the 30 seconds or so we have before break what's your take on that? I think that Japan will look for ways to help them develop their own submarines. Something that's not big publicity if you will but can get it done. China, Japan and Taiwan have something of a special relationship the Taiwan's have a much kinder and optimistic view of the Japanese than those who came over from the mainland and so politically with the Taiwan's being more politically assertive you'll find more good will towards Japan among the majority of Taiwanese population than you will among many of their political elites and Abe's been able to kind of wedge in there but you won't see any big ticket items it'll be mostly small stuff maybe Taiwanese engineers going to Japanese shipyards maybe some small equipment that sort of thing that's my speculation I haven't seen any evidence of it No that's really interesting well with that I think we're going to move on to the break where you're watching Asia and Review I'm your host Bill Sharp my guest today is Captain Carl Schuster US Navy retired a former intelligence officer a faculty member at Hawaii Pacific University and also a defense contractor don't go away when we come back we're going to talk about Korea we're going to straighten everything out on the Korean Peninsula the solution might have evaded others but we're going to nail it right here so don't go away this is Think Tech Hawaii raising public awareness I'm Helen Dora Hayden the host of Voice of the Veteran seen here live every Thursday afternoon at 1 p.m. on Think Tech Hawaii as a fellow veteran and veterans advocate with over 23 years experience serving veterans active duty and family members I hope to educate everyone on benefits and accessibility services by inviting professionals in the field to appear on the show in addition I hope to plan on inviting guest veterans to talk about their concerns and possibly offer solutions as we navigate and work together through issues we can all benefit please join me every Thursday at 1 p.m. for the Voice of the Veteran I'm going to the game and it's going to be great early arriving for a little tailgate I usually drink but won't be drinking today because I'm the designated driver and that's okay it's nice to be the guy that keeps his friends in line keeps him from drinking too much so we can have a great time a little responsibility can go a long way because it's all about having fun on game day I'm the guy you're going to be I'm the guy I say good-bye I'm the guy with the age you were and I'm the guy that says let's go this is Bill Sharp my guest today is Dr. I should say Captain Naval Captain I'm going to make that clear Naval Captain Carl Schuster he is a retired Navy intelligence officer these days as a faculty member at Hawaii Pacific University and also a defense contractor and we're having a really great discussion during the first half about Japan and we talked about Prime Minister Abe is the Abe here coming to an end well maybe not quite yet maybe fairly soon but not quite yet we want to move on to Korea and we're going to solve all the problems on the Korean Peninsula in one swoop the solution might have dated several U.S. administrations and certainly the problem be devils Prime Minister of Japan the President of South Korea we're going to solve it right here okay well my solution recognize North Korea sit down and talk with them okay accept it as a country with nuclear arms just because they have nuclear arms doesn't mean they're necessarily going to be shooting them all over the place what are their intentions and you know on the other hand I'm not so sure the South Koreans really want unification in North Korea because it costs too much money and these two Koreas have gone their own separate ways and historically they've been very divided along similar lines that they're divided today so this thing about the mother country want us to look beyond their rhetoric of that so what do you think well I'm with you in terms of the mother country Korea has spent nearly as much time divided into three kingdoms as it has been as a united empire if you will the other issue is you're absolutely right about the cost when I was working with the South Koreans in the 1990s one of the things that kept coming up was how much did it cost West Germany to absorb East Germany everybody always looks at that don't they what's the cost of Germany put out a lot of money West Germany to bring the East Germans up to within a decade of West Germany infrastructure was so out of tune with the times and I mean even the most minor stuff even their telephones were 1950s technology so the West Germans had to completely rebuild the infrastructure the buildings and indeed 60% of West Germany's national debt today is from that unification cost and it's not complete you know let me just interject an experience you know I remember in the old days when there was a Berlin Wall going from West Berlin to East Berlin and West Berlin was modern you know clean sparkling modern East Berlin was broken dirty run down and you know communist countries are like that aren't they you know I've been in enough communist countries you know that stuff doesn't work it's all broken it's in need of repair much of that is because to a communist regime the big image is more important than sustaining things so they will build lots of stuff but there's no glory in maintenance and you'll find that a lot in anything this government run because you don't get promoted for maintaining something you get promoted for creating something new and so and you'll see the same thing in some of our budgetary ideas I'll throw you a curve ball here retired naval intelligence officer what's the maintenance of Chinese naval vessels their maintenance is better than what the Soviet Union used to do but nowhere near what the Japanese do and slightly inferior to what they were doing in the last twelve years now that we're stepping up maintenance and upgrades we will probably be ahead of them but they've done the same thing essentially the Soviet Union did and that is build and then don't use the equipment very much so that the wearer is light if you look at how much of their navy goes to sea on any given day it's around fifteen percent and the Soviet Navy most of their ships were basically inactive crews went aboard did most of their training aboard might go out once every quarter for a couple of days just to maintain crew proficiency but before they deployed they did thirty days of work up and their war planning called for a forty five day mobilization cycle where the ships went out and learned how to fight as a group for forty five days before they dispersed in their combat areas you know I remember I forget exactly what year it was I visited Vladovostok of course that's the home base of the Russian Pacific fleet and I just remember seeing all those civilian destroyers sitting there and not moving and so I get what you're saying but let's get back here to like I got you off track a little bit sorry about that I'll take the hit for that one North Korea what are we going to do with it how can we do anything now that's a tough one and there's two aspects to it to make it tough one is first of all understand the regime's number one priority is regime survival and within the regime Kim Jong-un's number one priority is staying alive there's not a very good retirement plan for ex-leaders and dictatorships they wind up with a small piece of dirt with a bad view so he's going to fight that in somewhere fashion he's not a wacko I mean depicting him as unstable I agree I don't think anybody in North Korea is a wacko at least in the government military party setup they're very clever actually he does what he can get away with he tests his ICBMs without going over anyone's territory he times it so it generates headlines and his grandfather and father were very adept at creating these problems and then the west would leap and appease them so their bad behavior was always rewarded and the other advantage that North Korea has is North Korea's relationship with China China may disapprove of what North Korea is doing and North Korea is very much a client state but China doesn't want regime change either because in their minds they look at it and say all bad things happen unless we can control the succession for example if that regime goes away tomorrow what will follow it? Chinese look at it and say millions of refugees which we don't want to deal with and number two a competition for power as a successor which could go south in a hurry might bring the Americans north might bring the conflict spreading over into our territory neither of which China wants to be involved in and the other thing they look at is if they have to go south stabilize it what will we do it's unpredictable focus and so for them the status quo however painful is better than the alternative I might be saying something controversial here but I think the status quo is preferable to everybody involved Japan doesn't want a reunited Korea that's correct okay the United States might like it depending upon the conflection that it took we would like it to happen we are not thinking through what would follow we never do China doesn't want it if it means that the United Korea is going to be controlled by Seoul and like you just said the US US forces Korea on the Yalu River and I wonder wow a United Korea how will that impact intra-Asian relations what role will the Koreans play let me build on your scenario I'm forced to have this been told we have only one minute left hate to do it to you this happens all the time not to worry traditionally whenever Korea has been united it has aligned with China that's why Japan doesn't want a unified Korea that is a really interesting point and China has a very good relationship with Seoul and China might help with the unification if it meant getting us off the peninsula which would just raise all kinds of arm bells in Japan so we think of it and say how would China react us putting troops on the Yalu River that's not the way the North Koreans and the Chinese view it they look at it and say if it results in a peaceful transition in South Korea it takes over it'll be a pro-Chinese South Korea within a generation very interesting very interesting point of view I think maybe on that note maybe we should end here I want to thank you for watching Asian Review today I want to thank our guests for coming along and sharing his insight with us be sure to join us next week my guest will be Gordon Chang somewhat of a controversial figure and commentator on US-Asia relations especially his comments on China so it should be a great show and we'll see you then