 Welcome traders to another Tick Mill Earnings Season Preview with me Patrick Mullerby. Before we jump into this report, as always, I want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. Most pertinent to this presentation is the fact that views and opinions expressed are solely mine. They're not indicative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. So let's jump into the report. We are looking at Twitter. Twitter are anticipated to announce earnings before the open of New York trade today. Earnings per share is 0.01 cents on revenue of 1.264 billion. Obviously, the focus at this stage is on Elon Musk's deal to take Twitter over and anticipated to complete that deal on Friday for an acquisition price of $44 billion that's equivalent to $54 per share. Some interesting dynamics developing, specifically with a Reuters report out this week saying that the top 10% of users who account for 90% of Twitter's earnings are known as heavy tweeters and they have been in absolute decline since the COVID-19 pandemic started approximately two and a half years ago, according to that Reuters report. They claim to have seen key internal Twitter research and, according to the report, the most active English speaking Twitter users have changed their interests over the previous two years, which may make the platform less appealing to advertisers. This shift in interest has seen growth in the number of heavy users interested in not safe for work and cryptocurrency content. The English demographic is reportedly important for Twitter as the social platform generates more revenue from the US alone than all other markets put together in its most recent quarter, but Twitter declined to specify how many of its tweets are in English or how much money it makes from English speakers according to the report. Now, why is this important? Well, it's important because in a video chat with debt bankers who are lending money to the deal, Musk reportedly pledged on Monday to close the deal for Twitter by Friday. The Reuters report came just days before Musk intended to close the deal. If the information in the report is found to be true and not yet seen by Musk, it would fuel worries that the platform would be even less profitable given Twitter's ad revenues account for a large portion of its total bookings. And obviously we've seen with the likes of Alphabet and potentially Meta later today that ad revenues have been in decline and pressure also coming from those FX headwinds with that really strong dollar. Let's look at some of the statistical trading patterns that we can see around Twitter earnings of late. Twitter shares have moved higher in the immediate aftermath of earnings six out of 12 previous reports. On average, the stock moved down 3.4% in the first day of trading after the earnings reported. Based on the previous 12 earnings releases, Twitter is more likely to trade lower one day after earnings for an average loss of 2.1%. On average, the stock has moved lower by 0.3% one week after earnings from the volatility perspective. Options traders pricing at 10.2% move on earnings. The stock has averaged a 9.5% move in recent quarters from a flow and sentiment perspective. Now this is slightly skewed and you need to obviously understand that if Musk is going to get this deal through by Friday at the anticipated deal price of $54 per share, there's obviously been a huge amount of interest in that call, which also expires on Friday. So we've seen 41,199 contracts purchase there for that $54 call. Prior to this, options order flowing general has been bearish. Twitter's share price has drifted up 32.5% post its prior earnings announcement. Again, that is skewed by this bid by Musk. Using the last 12 quarters of data, the average drift between earnings announcement is 6.8%. Let's pull up the chart and see where the potential trading opportunities are with respect to Twitter. And as you can imagine, this again is slightly skewed by the fact that we have this deal price in the market known to the market. And so obviously there's a lot of focus on that 54 level. We last traded up in that area when the deal was previously announced back in April, and Musk announced his original bid. Obviously he was concerned he was pulling out and then there was the court issue. So what we're anticipating is that if the deal does go through, we will trade up to and likely through that 54 and probably take out stocks above the 55-20 level. It's then going to be a very interesting to see do we get that by the rumor sell the fact dynamic. So I'll be watching for any bearish reversal patterns above that 55 level to engage on the short side, initially targeted move back down into the high volume load at $50.53. As always traders, plan the trade, trade the plan and most importantly, manage your risk. Until next time, thanks very much.