 Hello and welcome to CMC Markets on Tuesday the 15th of September and the weekly market update and we're almost there. September rate meeting FOMC Thursday 7pm. Pretty much everything that we've seen over the past two to three weeks and since the July Fed meeting has been building up to this week's Fed rate decision. Equity markets are pretty much trading sideways. No one really wants to take on any new positions ahead of this widely anticipated meeting and to be quite honest the decision really is on a knife edge. It could go either way. We could get a modest rate hike if we do we'll probably get a very dovish message. In the event we don't get a rate hike we could actually get a hawkish message. Irrespective of the outcome I think any potential upside in the dollar is likely to be fairly limited. Now if you want to listen into a preview of the FOMC rate meeting I will be hosting along with my colleague in Canada Colin Zizinski a pre FOMC webinar at 3pm GMT GMT BST my mistake 3pm BST on Thursday. If you want to sign up for that just basically click on this link that will appear to the left of my ear right here and we will go through a number of different scenarios the key chart points on various indices commodities and foreign currencies for the here and now for this particular webinar or video rather I will be focusing pretty much on Euro dollar I'll be focusing on the Aussie dollar in the wake of the political push that we saw in Australia and the fall of Tony Abbott as Prime Minister and the replacement by Malcolm Turnbull and also we'll be looking at crude oil prices and looking at potentially the next move there as well. So we're going to start with this week's events in Australia and the political push against the incumbent Prime Minister Tony Abbott replaced by Malcolm Turnbull now we've seen a little bit of a push higher in the Australian dollar on the back of that and as can be seen from this daily chart on my right here we haven't as yet been able to gain the momentum needed to push above the trend line resistance from the highs that we've seen earlier this year however the key level I think for me with respect to the Australian dollar is a horizontal line that I've drawn through the July lows and the early lows in August around about 7240. Now an awful lot of this momentum in the Australian dollar is going to be dictated by the Fed decision on Thursday but the key resistance on the upside is around about 7240 if we're able to maintain the momentum below that particular resistance level then the likelihood is we're going to see further declines in the Australian dollar down towards the lows that we've seen earlier this year the earlier this year around about 69 and a half. Obviously Chinese data will have a significant impact in that particular context that continues to be disappointing and if Chinese data continues to be disappointing then the likelihood of further easing by the RBA increases. So keep an eye on that resistance level on the Australian dollar it could be significantly important in the event that the Federal Reserve doesn't act on Thursday. Now we've talked a little bit about the Fed decision being a pretty much 5050 each way bet will they raise rates won't they raise rates certainly when we look at this euro dollar chart that's I'm displaying right here right now on the daily basis we have significant support round about the 50 and 100 day moving average around about 111. So I think the big question for me is what's going to push euro dollar out of its range and the likelihood is it's probably going to be a Fed decision that's going to do that the big question is what are the key levels that we need to keep an eye out for and I think in that regard it's better to zoom in on the four hour chart which I'm about to display right now. So with this four hour chart what I've done is I've linked the lows from the lows that we saw in August and we can see straight away that there is a significant area of support coming in around about the mid 111s the mid to low 111s and that also happens to coincide I think with the moving averages that I showed you on the daily chart on the previous slide. I think in this context we are now starting to get a little bit oversold on the four hour oscillator and I think that's significant I think as we get towards that meeting we could well drift lower on euro dollar the key level on the upside remains 114 and I'm still of the opinion that we could well get a dollar negative outcome from the FOMC on Thursday how that plays out in terms of the language or the narrative it's difficult to quantify but certainly in the context of the data that we've seen today in terms of industrial production empire manufacturing and retail sales they all point to a weakness in the US economy and if you recall Bill Dudley's comments of a few weeks ago that the case for a rate rise is less compelling than it was a few weeks ago that empire manufacturing number that really poor number for the third month in a row is not likely to make him vote for a rate rise so really then it's a matter of who do you think will vote for a rate rise given the current disposition of the FOMC committee and I think if you're looking to try and arrive at a decision it's a good idea to look at the Fed dove hawk scale and I'll put a slide up for you of that at the end of this video going to finish up with crude oil prices because once again they remain under pressure but I think what is quite significant despite the volatility that we've seen over the past few weeks we still remain well well above the lows that we saw earlier this year and that's no better borne out by this four hour chart that I'm about to display up here we can see there's a good area of support coming in just above the $43 a barrel mark but we have declining resistance coming in from the highs that we saw at the end of August and the beginning of September so certainly look for a breakout in terms of this triangular consolidation because if we break out over the course of the next few hours we could get a significant move higher or lower and as with all technical analysis don't try and preempt the break trade in the direction of the break with a tight stop loss either higher or lower so that's pretty much it for this week just once again a quick reminder about this week's webinar at 3pm I'll also give you a quick look at the hawk dove scale just just at just at the tail end of this video otherwise thanks very much for listening this is Michael Houston talking to you from CMC Markets