 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Morning Market Kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good morning, everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN just after 9 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday morning. We've got about 24 minutes to go until the start of trading, and you've got markets picking things up in negative territory. We've got retail sales hot, hot, hot as the consumer spending a 0.6% for the month of December, far above expectations. We'll get into that in a moment, but we pick things up. So what does that lean towards? That lean towards, leans toward higher yield, right? The Fed not exactly slowing things down with cuts as the market may have imagined when we have retail sales and the retail consumer in the economy. We'll be a little bit too hot for the Fed to begin cutting with fears of inflation, roaring back up. With that in mind, we have yield tire. We get the 10-year approaching 4.1. We get the S&Ps off by 32 points, but we're going to jump to the 10-year, just that quick. Look at the drop, man. Look at the move this week, right? From last Friday at 1.12, you back it up to where we were on the CPI last week at 1.12 as well, and we're sitting right now at 1.1115, and that is correlating right now to a yield of 4.1% on the dot on the 10-year. So we got the 10-year, higher yield, that's putting some weakness into the market right now, and we have the S&Ps off 2.30% trading down 32 points. See the volatility yesterday. We were up to 48.15 as I was ending the program, and just like that, we're trading at 47.67. NASDAQ 100 gives it up. We're off by 8.10% off 143 points. Pretty much right where we were at about 3AM Eastern Time yesterday morning. If you remember the program from yesterday, got a little bit of sell-off at the 3AM Eastern Time. We're right back down to those lows in the NASDAQ 100. The Dow off 181 points, it's been a slow slide. Lower lows, lower highs, Dow right now off 180 points. That's half a percent. And how about that Russell, man? Russell off by 1.6%, and we don't even get the opening bell until just over 20 minutes from right now. Bitcoin, just kind of chopping around, right? You see the volatility from last week. The ETFs get approved on Thursday. You spiked to almost 50,000. Bitcoin chopping around about 43,000 all week. We're just below that level. Bitcoin, 42,560. How about crude? If you got to go fill up the gas tank, maybe give it a few hours. Maybe give it till the end of the day. Maybe give it till tomorrow, if you can, man, because we got lower prices coming at you. Crude, down a buck 84 at 70.56. Now what's coming into this? The dollar, right? We're going to jump over to the dollar in a moment, but that's a big component as well. Of course, you jump to that gold contract, down by $6. Anytime you're going to have dollar strength, what are you going to have? You're going to have commodity prices going down because the dollar is stronger. So when those commodities are priced in dollars, which are stronger, you're going to need less of those dollars because it's a stronger currency to buy those commodities. Great day. We'll be talking to our man, Teddy Kegstad at 40 past the hour. Love that we talked to him on Wednesday. Seems like we're always getting some good economic data. We got it today with retail sales. We've got the market pulling back. We have yield spiking. We have the 10-year right now at 4.1%. Teddy's been talking about that maybe the market's a little bit ahead of itself in terms of all these cuts and the hikes being gone, the market waking up to at least some of that this morning. And you jump over to the dollar index. And there you go, right? Dollar hitting $10360. $10360. We were almost at a $101 handle on last Friday. We came into the CPI last Thursday at $10220. So you have extreme dollar strength right now. It's been quite a pullback from $107.38 to the $101 area, just like that. We're at $103.53 and out of some curiosity here. So that was your entire pullback, right? From 2022 to the lows of 2023. But taking that one off, we'll put it back on a daily. And you're dealing with a high of about $107 in the dollar. We back down to about $101. And you're just above that $3.82 right now. Maybe you're coming up to the highs we had in early December, that high in the dollar. $104.26. We're only about 70 pennies away from that price level right now. And you see the acceleration. These are dailies. The last couple of days, man, quite an acceleration as the market reprices the path and the number of cuts that they may be looking at. We jump over to the VIX. We were talking about the VIX yesterday. Something going on with the VIX, man. OK, we have the VIX trading at a level that we have not seen since November 14th. That's more than two months, man. We made it through Thanksgiving. We made it through Christmas. We had some spikes. OK, you had some negative action. Never had the VIX at this price level. So pay attention, man. Remember, we never had the VIX at this price level going back to November 14th. OK. And where was the market on November 14th? We are 270 points above where we were. That's November 14th, man. Pretty remarkable how we've just shifted higher. And we've had some red bars, but nothing like what we have going on right now. I was talking to our man Tim Ward last night doing my dad's program. One of the things he looks at is the SPY VIX ratio. OK. And any time you see the VIX going to a higher level, as that's the denominator in that ratio, what's going to happen? You're going to see that ratio come down. And that could be a fear factor. Anytime you have the VIX spiking, it could be indicative of a little bit of fear. It's definitely indicative of volatility being priced into the market. That is a fear in by itself, paying for protection, paying for some type of insurance almost. When you're talking about the optionality and the premium that's priced into those options, the expectation that you might get moves. Nonetheless, we get the VIX going up. If you want to check out that Tim Ward interview I did last night, we always archive that right on the YouTube page. Just go over to the video section. We archive every interview, every program right on the YouTube page. Check that out. And yeah, we get the VIX spiking with the SEPs pulling back. And let's jump over to retail sales. Rise by the most in three months to cap the holidays. And it's a big beat, man, here are the numbers. Retail sales month over month, 0.6 percent. The estimate was only 0.4. If you exclude autos, 0.4 percent estimate was 0.2. The control group, 0.8 percent. The expectation was for 0.2. Nine of 13 categories posted increases. The biggest gains in clothing, general merchandise stores, which include department stores and e-commerce. Motor vehicle sales up by 1.1 percent. Biggest increase since May. Those at gas stations fell for a third month as pump prices declined. That's probably going to keep going. We got crewed at about 70 bucks right now. So it's not in oil. It's not in energy. What's it in? General merchandise, yeah, clothing. Holiday season. We'll see if that deviates at all after we come back from the holidays. It's interesting. I hit up Target often with Tommy. It's kind of a Toys R Us experience I told you about. We try and walk out of there spending nothing. I hit up Target last night, walked out of there spending 54 cents. I bought some Spider-Man stickers. Got to love it, right? Got to love that. We walk around, we play with the toys. I may grab a Starbucks. That's the most expensive thing that I buy sometimes when we go out there. But retail sales, when you think about it, so I find myself we're looking at the same products in Target, right? Everything was just on sale for the months of November and December. And it is interesting to see who is spending money. I'm not buying toys right now. All right, we bought the toys in November. We bought them in December. The last time we were Target, we bought nothing. I'm telling Tommy, listen, Tommy, they got no they got no good toys, man. They got to replenish them. All right, we got all the good toys over Christmas. Santa brought you all the good toys. We bought some Spider-Man stickers for 50 cents yesterday. It's amazing what can bring a two-year-old Joy, who will be three years old, coming up in only about a couple of weeks. But yeah, who's buying those toys, man? Because they got everything full priced. I'm looking at every single thing in Target saying, man, that was 20% off. That was 30% off last month. How are those numbers going to follow? A strong December, we will find out. But stay tuned, folks. We got a lot to talk about this morning. We'll come back after the break. Don't go away. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities & Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them, using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities & Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything, from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. 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Visit TFNN.com and try Mastering Probability 30 days risk-free today. TFNN, educating investors. Welcome back folks. We have the S&Ps down about 30 points right now trading at 47.68 NASDAQ 100 up by 131. We got some great economic data and retail sales but unfortunately this market is telling you that good news is bad news right now because we are at a point where the market is trying to figure out when those cuts are coming and this good news is derailing the idea. Remember when we were gonna get March cuts, right? Remember when we were gonna get March cuts not even close man. Amazing how quickly everything keeps changing, right? You go back to when it was October when the Fed said, listen, we're gonna go higher for longer, all this stuff, right? Things change in of course November, in December, the data and now what's happening. We got 10 year yields back above 4.11% pretty remarkable. You got the S&Ps off by 30. We have the dollar spiking to higher price. That is putting a hurt on commodities. We got the dollar at 103.60. You got crude floating with a 70 handle, 70.98 right now and you jump over to that gold contract right now gold contract, 2021. All right, what else we got going on? Let's talk a little bit of Apple. So Apple been in the press lately not for the reasons that they would like but this one they're gonna like. Apple, past Samsung as the world's top phone maker in 2023. Now it's interesting that you had the story out there yesterday, right? That came out over the weekend. Apple lowering their prices in China potentially indicative of a demand problem. They trade lower yesterday. You see that gap over the weekend from about 186. You hit a low of 180.93 yesterday morning. Talk about volatility on this equity. We're right back approaching those lows of 181.51 but it is remarkable as they were the world's top phone maker in 2023. I find this one just remarkable man because I'm fortunate that I can afford an iPhone or a premium phone. Nowadays there are so many remarkable phones that are less expensive, especially when you're talking about Android phones that Samsung's are. And it's remarkable that these companies continue to deliver phones at $1,000 to $1,500 when there are competitors on the discount front that offer some really affordable options that just have great service considering what you get versus what you get at the top end. Nonetheless, I love my iPhone. Okay, full disclosure. The iPhone sold more than Samsung's devices globally last year. And yeah, the first time that you had Samsung relinquished that spot since 2010. This is a big one folks. All right, you're talking about 13 years. The first time that that largest company has lost that top spot since 2010. Apple, 235 million shipments last year. Samsung comes in at 226 and they dropped double digits. Now, check it out. Here's Apple in 2022, they represented 18.8% share of the global market this year over 20%. Samsung, you almost completely reverse what was going on with Apple. They were almost at 22%. They're now at 19.4, rounding out the top three. Xiaomi, yeah, 12.7 to 12.5, look at that. And just amazing, man. When you look at this, haven't even heard it. Transion, is that another Chinese company potentially? Yeah, driven by attractive trade-in offers. I'm always seeing those attractive trade-in offers. And interest-free financing. Apple was the only player in the global top three to register growth of 3.7%. Now, that's the story of last year though. What's this year gonna look like, man? As they come in, I mean, think about it, quite a year, they're the only one of the major three to increase and what happens? What do you got going on? They're pushing out discounts in the China for the first time in years. So be careful, watch the chart action. Tough to find a bid right now in Apple. You're off by $2 yet again. That's gonna be a 1% hit on the open for Apple shares. Everything getting hit this morning, but nonetheless. Apple, they win 2023, but coming into 2024 with just a few questions to put it lightly. All right, let's check in on some of those chip stocks, man. Quite the accelerations for NVIDIA, AMD yesterday. NVIDIA shares right now, you're basically flat. I mean, you could call that a huge win when you get the market trading lower, right? You got NVIDIA shares actually in the positive when you got right across the board right now. NVIDIA, 564, remarkable. You jump over to AMD. They plowed higher as well yesterday. And yeah, you're gonna be barely in the green as well. NVIDIA trades from 146 to 160 yesterday. 146 to 160, almost a 10% acceleration. You're trading right now at 159.30. We jump over to Tesla shares. They got more price cuts going on, folks. Watch out, Tesla gaps from 220 to 215. And yeah, let's find that article real quick. Oh, come on. Here we go. Tesla slashes car prices across Europe after similar cuts in China. So they trim the prices from the Model Y cars across Europe, not long after announcing similar price cuts in the Model 3 and Model Y in China. By as much as 8.1%, they get a demand problem, man. I don't know how they get over it right now. EVs having a tough go around, Hertz, of course, selling 20,000 electric vehicles. Most of those are gonna be Teslas. They come out with price cuts in China. They come out with price cuts in Europe. And on top of it all, which one is it? Yeah, you have the pay package looming. This one is a new article from the journal. Okay, we talked about it yesterday. Elon out over the weekend talking about that he needs 25% ownership in Tesla. Well, he probably shouldn't have sold a lot of his shares to buy Twitter then. Kind of a conundrum that he's using that sale. What if he hadn't done that? Would he still need such a large pay package? Cause that shouldn't impact a shareholder. That's the most remarkable part of what's going on on this is that he is using the fact that he sold his shares for a personal acquisition to make an excuse that somehow he needs to be given more shares. I mean, it's pretty remarkable. Now, the 2018 deal gave him 55.8 billion. Folks, that's almost 10% of the whole company right now. Okay, and the company's lost half its value over the last two years. Half its value. It was at 1.2 trillion. It's at 650 billion right now. Now, that is 11 times the number that it was in 2018. Okay, Musk has talked about, they talk about in this article, okay? That the company, let's see, they talk about it in here, probably should be worth more than Saudi Aramco and some other company. Here it is, yeah. He, so in October of 2022, he likes to talk up his game, right? He saw a path for Tesla to be worth more than Apple and Saudi Aramco combined, which was then about 4.4 trillion. I imagine it's a bigger number. Let's just throw around 6 trillion, okay? Cause 6 trillion is about 10 times the size of the market cap right now. I think you're gonna see some kind of lofty pay package tied to, again, a multiple for Tesla shares that would defy all expectations, but he got it done in 2018, man, and that was what happened. If you remember when that pay package got announced in 2018, it was, oh my goodness, this is bonkers, but think how much Tesla's gonna be worth if it ever gets done. Who's gonna complain if Tesla goes from a company that's valued at 50 billion to 600 billion? Who's really gonna complain if Elon gets that pay package considering the overachievement, and it happened, right? There's a lot going on in that story, folks. Everyone's got their opinions. Not how corporate governance is supposed to play out, but he is the richest man in the world. He owns X, which is the biggest bully pulpit, you could say, in the world, and he is using it to his advantage, which may actually complicate things with the board a bit in terms of how they navigate that. Yeah, believe it at that, man. A 60 billion dollar pay package? Well, what if they tie it to Tesla being worth $6 trillion? Not sure I'd mind that one as a shareholder. Oh, a lot going on there. Nonetheless, Tesla, lower yet again today. Stay tuned, folks. We're coming back for the open. It'll be an interesting one. Don't go away. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Inn, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years, with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other Tigers and Tigresses as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well. So it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex Report. 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Head over to TFNN.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter Market Insights firsthand. TFNN educating investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com, then hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com, then hit Watch Tiger TV. Welcome back, folks. We got markets open. You're looking at an S&P 32 points lower by about 6-10%. We come in right at basically pre-market session lows off 32 points, 47-66, NASDAQ 100. We're off about 0.8%, or about 134 points in the red, 16,832. You get the die right now, 4-10% in the red, and the Russell, man, off 1.5%. We jump around to the dollar on a day of strong retail sales. The American economy marches on, man. We get the dollar up by 15 ticks, 10351 right now. We jump over to yield to get the 10-year. Basically 4.1, I think we're sitting at. What are we at? Yeah, 4.1%. The yield on the 10-year right now at 1116. We got a strong dollar. What is that doing? That's putting some weakness into the commodities. You got crude. Getting back above 71, 7106, and you got the gold contract right now, trading down $6 at 2,032. We just dipped below 2,020 briefly on that gold contract. All right, what else we got going on? Yeah, you got Davos going on. I was watching it earlier this morning with Bloomberg there out there. Many executives making some headlines out there. Diamond making some headlines, talking about cautious. Let's why not? We'll bring over, yeah, he's talking right now, I think. Nah, he was talking early. Yeah, he's just talking about some potential lag, man. And S&Ps down 34 right now, we're making lows. And we got some ways to go. Chairman Powell sipping that coffee this morning, man, we are, what, about a couple weeks from the next Fed meeting? Might be two weeks from today, I think it is. And then you get March 20th. Is the meeting after that wasn't focused? Doesn't seem to be in focus right now in terms of any potential moves by the Fed? He remains cautious. This is JPMorgan Chase CEO, Jamie Dimon, on the U.S. economy over the next two years because of a combination of financial and geopolitical risks. Now we're gonna jump to office space in a moment. I better have that one up. I was reading it earlier this morning. I'm gonna find it. Let me see if I can get it up first. All right, nonetheless, you have all these very powerful forces that are gonna be affecting us in 24 and 25. There's a lot of lag, man, that could be coming down the line, right? In terms of we got a hot economy, the Fed's worried about inflation, rightfully so. And what's it gonna take to get us back down to 2% and what's it gonna take if we get a little bit of lag in the tightness in some parts of this economy that has marched on stronger than many had expected? Now you take that. That's not it. That's our Apple story. That's our CNBC story. No, okay, we gotta find it. All right, we're gonna have to find it at the next break. We're talking to our man, Teddy Kegs, at the next break, but I will find it, because I was reading a great article talking about the exposure. We've heard it before, but yet another article. Let me see, I think it was on the journal this morning. Here we go, I got it. Bill coming due on record amount of commercial real estate debt. We've heard the story before, but it's coming, folks, okay? And the Fed is aware of this, and that's one of the reasons why they wanna cut the moment that they think they can cut. $2.2 trillion in debt is maturing before 2028. Much of that will have to be refinanced at higher rates, much, if not all, right? Who's refinancing that debt at lower rates? Excuse me, yeah, at lower rates than what they had. So in 2023, okay, you had over half a trillion dollars in debt backed by office buildings, hotels, apartments, and other type of commercial real estate came due, the highest amount ever for a single year, okay? You're gonna have more than 2.2 trillion coming due between now and the end of 2027. Well, that's four years, so that's about 540 billion every year, this year, 2025, next year, 2026, and 2027, okay? Half a trillion dollars come and due, something to that degree, because you got 2.2 trillion coming by the end of 2027. Most of these loans have so far been repaid or extended, focused on extended here. That's the reason, really, I wanna talk about this article, because it hasn't crept up, because many of these policies have one and two-year extensions. Well, guess when they were using them? Last year and the year before. When are they gonna be able to use them? Not anymore, man. They're running out of those one and two-year extensions. The time has come at a roost. Many owners were able to exercise one and two-year extensions built into their original loans. Now those extensions are burning off. That's compelling many borrowers to confront the higher rate environment along with higher vacancies and weakening cash flows, which is depressing property values. Some owners and creditors are also grappling with the expiration of deals they made early on during the pandemic to delay payments until the worst of the health crisis passed. Well, things have changed since then, man. They make the point in here. You should be aware if you're not. Unlike home mortgages, okay, these are interest-only loans most of the time, okay? That means that when the debt matures, the borrower has to refinance or pay it off 100% man. Most of the time they're refinancing, right? Or they're handing the keys back, which may be possible. Now, excuse me. Lender losses on commercial property loans have started to increase and look poised to rise further. You got Fitch ratings project delinquency rate of commercial mortgage loans that have been converted into securities. This is an important one. It's gonna increase to 4.5% this year, 4.9% in 2024, 5%, more than doubling the 2.25% rate we just got as of November, okay? You look at loan delinquency numbers. This is U.S. commercial-backed, mortgage-backed securities loan delinquency. 2023, we're at 3.48%. The expectation and forecast for 2004, 8.1%. 2025, 9.9%. Compare that to multi-families. Yeah, you got an increase going on, but nothing like you're seeing in offices, okay? And the rate cuts aren't gonna come fast enough because you know what's not gonna change? I mean, there's a lot of office buildings that just, it's never going back. If you're the top, you know, right, A-style office building, right? You're in the middle of Manhattan. You got the Creme de la Creme. Those offices are never going away. If you're like the B-level office building where potentially they've moved a lot of those workers out to remote, whatever it is, that's a world that's changed dramatically and they're securitized as well. So pay attention to that one, man. And we haven't seen this come up yet, probably because a lot of those extension availabilities, right? I mean, this just happened, man. Okay, you got one in two-year extensions that are possible. You take a look at the 10-year. Pretty remarkable how far back you gotta go actually now. You take a look at the 10-year. It was only, I mean, basically the end of, yeah, what do we gotta go back? You go back three years to where interest rates were near zero and things really didn't start getting out of whack until the beginning of 2022. So we're only two years out from when the Fed started that hiking campaign as in, you know, they're just using the one and two-year extensions, man. And we're talking about going out all the way for the next four years. This is gonna be an issue. And even if rates recalibrate, remember that they still have an issue in terms of when they signed those deals, they thought they were gonna be getting for cash flow, for demand for office space versus right now where that sector may be. And it's not the same and we're never going back to the same. All right, we got the dollar, 103.57 right now. Great day to talk to our man, Teddy Kegstad. We're gonna be talking some currencies. We're gonna be talking some yields. We're gonna be talking some crude oil and commodities. Don't go away, folks. We're talking to Teddy when we come back in three minutes. We're right back. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigerses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other tigers and tigerses as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well. So it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. 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An investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus, call 866-476-7523 or visit DirectionInvestments.com. A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, foresight fund services, LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Come back, folks. Excuse me. A little bit of a slide going on right now. We got the S&Ps off by 36 points, trading at 47.62. We have yield spiking with the 10-year, sitting at about 4.1%. We got some dollar strength. And to talk about all the action, let's jump over to our man, Teddy Kegsett. Folks, you can check out Teddy's outstanding Tiger Forex report. He puts out weekly updates at the beginning of every week on Mondays, updates throughout the week when warranted. You can check that out right under the newsletter tab at TFNN. It's $97 from the month. It comes with a 30-day money-back guarantee. And what's going on right now with currencies, what's going on right now with yields in terms of how they're impacting everything. And don't forget, he's got a couple great webinars under the services tab, under there as well, Japanese candlestick pattern, stock and option strategies. And then you got capitalizing on time with calendar stock options spreads. Check those out. Check out the Tiger Forex report, and let's get into it. Teddy Kegsett, good morning. Good morning, Tommy. Yeah, what a morning to talk about the markets today. So where do you want to begin? What do you think, I guess, of the market reaction to some of the economic data? Right, we got retail sales. I mean, we got the whole theme going on, it seems here, Teddy, in terms of a little bit of a reverberation, right? Yield's climbing again. We got dollar strength back in Vogue. Where do you want to kick things off? It goes right back to what I've been saying for a long time. You got to watch the bond numbers, because if they make something move, they're going to make the markets move, and that's what's going on right now. So, I mean, everyone in the Tiger Forex report, we know Monday was a holiday, so they were asleep. There was no markets really open in the US. Everything was closed. Only the FX markets were open, but they were quiet. That was expected, and then yesterday, the markets opened. And the main thing that I had talked about in the Tiger report was that you're probably going to have a big choppy sideways market continuing unless the numbers start to come out in a way that disappoints or comes out out of whack. Retail sales came out much higher than expected. The forecast was higher than the previous number, but only slightly. And this really beat the number. So, and that's a big thing once again, which goes back to what I've been, the tone I've had over the past few months is that everyone's getting ahead of themselves. You know, I heard on the radio last week that there was a 60% priced-in chance of a quarter point rate cut in the May meeting. Well, is that still on the table today? You know, once again, you got the numbers are lagging, and this is not that far of a lagging number. You know, so I think that it's showing the shake up, and now we've gotten some breakouts too. We had some currencies that are moving, some that aren't, and I think a lot of it is reflective of the yield move that we've had, and yields haven't really moved that much. They moved today, you know, but the other markets already started to break out yesterday like the dollar already. So, I think we've started a nice little short-term move. I would not jump in front of the trends right now. Short-term, I think you gotta let them go a little bit more, and I can get into those numbers if you want. I can break it down from the dollar index all the way through all the currencies if you want to do that next. Let's do it. I like the exact numbers. Let's break out the numbers for the people listening for sure. All right, start with the dollar index. Yesterday we had an upside breakout level at 103.10. Right now we're trading at 103.60, so we took out that breakout level. So, for that, that signal was already taken out yesterday, that's good. Now we're following through today. I also have one of my, I have an indicator that I use. I don't use it for a tiger report, but I use it in combination with things. So, with the breakout, that triggered my signal followed up by an entry long signal for the dollar index that was triggered today. So, I think you can see the dollar index get up to around that 104.30, maybe even push 104.75 over the next like, I would say, three to five sessions. Could we have a nice sell-off and profit takings move tomorrow? Absolutely, because we have the next numbers on Friday for the U.S. Remember, I was looking for a sideways market most like for most of this week. So, I wouldn't get overzealous, but I think that what's going on in these little short-term bursts is gonna give you the nice trend to follow through over, like I said, the next week. So, that's a dollar index. So, now let's go to crude, okay? So, crude is something I know you guys want to take a look at. Now, this is another one that I was talking about going kind of sideways. It's on the lower band right now, or what, it's 71.16 of barrels, I think in the front month contract. So, that's kind of still sideways. As long as that stays stable, and I think that pretty much will over the next like week or so, I wouldn't expect a big breakout. If we get above 76, then I think you can start to worry about having a nice bull move. But I think, like I said, for the past couple of weeks, between 70 and 75, you're gonna be in a chop zone, and I think it's gonna continue there. But now let's go to the interest rates. So, with the 30 year, and there's also the 10 year, both of them are going kind of sideways. Yesterday's market had a nice sell off, meaning prices going lower, meaning yields going up. Today we have a nice little bit of follow through. Now, this is the key thing, like what I'm saying, don't get overzealous on these moves. In the past day and a half, we've had a nice move after a holiday break, okay? We could be pushing these moves today, but don't think that we're not gonna get a profit taking bounce. So, I think right now, as far as yields, I'd be in a sell rally forecast, looking for lower move lows, which will help to give the dollar a continued boost, which would help, like I said, help to dig, seek it up to about that 104 area somewhere around there. So, I'm looking for that to continue with that. And then we also had a sell signal triggered in that other signal that I use also today. Now, let's go to the Euro US dollar. I'm gonna go as fast as I can. That one, yesterday we took out, I'm sorry? I said, this is great, let's keep it going, let's keep it going. Okay, so yesterday in the Euro, now we had a nice sell off, we took out our downside breakout level, okay? So now here's the thing that I wanna tell you about the Euro. This is a big deal. We're trading right around the directional pivot level around this 108 area, okay? 108 to 108 half is a big deal, okay? If we start to trade below that, well, then we could see the Euro break another two to three dollars over the next, I would say week and a half to two weeks, you know? So to the short side, there could be a nice trade there, especially if yields do start to tick up again. Like if the bonds in the tenure follow through, okay, over the next few sessions, especially if we get a bad number on Friday for the, which will affect the real estate market, that could be a big bond number two and also in the tenure as well. So if that happens and they start to hit the hammer to lows and yields go up, that's gonna keep pressing that sell signal, okay? So for that, I think you could get that down another couple of handles in the bonds. And if that happens, that will help to Dixie get up to that 104 area, okay? So now let's go down to the British pound. This is the one that's staying kind of a sleeper today. Yesterday it did sell off, like the rest of the currencies, it's a dollar got its boost. But today it's just hanging around this, but right now it's where it's at 126.39. It's gotta get below 126.15, 125.95 area, somewhere in that support band, because if it holds above there, it means it's really, it's in this sideways trade that it's, it could dwell for a while. Remember, we're waiting on the Bank of England right now. So everyone's talking about the Fed, but our eye is also watching the BOE and that may keep that currency snaking along. So be careful looking for a big break on that one. If the euro sells off big, then you may get a little follow through with the pound, but that one I don't think is gonna break as hard relatively as far as the dollar cross relationship, just for those who watch that market. All right, US dollar Swiss, this is a whole another ball of wax. We're seeing some strength here. Now this is one where overall the trend is a bear. I would use caution with this one. I think you're having an exacerbated rally profit taking move on this one. So could it get to a much higher level? Well, of course it could, but 186, right where it's at right now is the directional pivot level I have, which is a huge trend level for the Swiss. So I think that this, the other markets have to catch up to this one more so than where it's at, if that makes any sense. If the rally is gonna continue with the dollar, the Swiss is probably gonna lay off over the next couple of sessions. The other currencies have to catch up. Okay, cause now as we get into the other ones. You guys take a quick break. Can we come back, Teddy? All right. I can wrap up the last four in two minutes. We'll finish it up folks. Don't go away. We'll be right back with Teddy. The gold report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market and the Shanghai gold exchange. The gold report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the dollar, bonds, the South African RAND, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations. The gold report. New subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's gold report newsletter now at TFNN.com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. 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At TFNN, we understand that it can be hard to find reliable market news. That's why each of our market experts offers their very own market newsletter. They must have tool for every trader out there striving to find an edge in today's markets. TFNN newsletters cover every aspect of the markets so you can analyze the market before you trade. Try any of our great newsletters risk-free with our 30 day money back guarantee. Just visit the newsletters tab on the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. Welcome back folks. We get the SMPs off about 36 points just kind of chopping around at the 47.62 area since we opened the trading at 9.30. We're talking to our man, Teddy Kegstad. Don't forget about the Tiger Forex report folks and let's just jump back into it Teddy. Please continue to go ahead as we wrap it up in the next couple of minutes. Where were we? Okay, cool. US dollar yen is where we're at right now. So in the report, I said last week Swing High was a big level. We figure we'd be testing resistance a little bit more. The number obviously accelerated things. We are above our upside correction zone which was topped out at 147.50. We're at 148.32 right now. We're on our way to 150 baby. Now is it gonna happen today or tomorrow? Probably not. But if Friday's number goes in line with what today's momentum is, if that kind of reinforces the direction of interest rates and helps push yields higher, I could see 150 hit by Friday afternoon. Definitely by Monday if those numbers fall in line with that one. So right now we have that bullish breakout. The yen and these last couple of currencies, these are the ones that are really driving the dollar index right now because they're the movers. So Australian dollar, US dollar, talk about a slam of jama yesterday. We felt the floor just got ripped out. We were looking for sideways in these markets. Obviously things are not happening. We got the downside breakout. We're already trading now. Let's see in the Aussie, it's trading at what is it? 65.28. That's just hovering above the bottom of the critical correction zone for what we had in the Tiger Forex report. You can see on a daily basis it's right there by a major swing low from a couple of months ago. We take that out over the next couple of sessions. You could, I mean, we might see the market get down another like three or four handles by Friday. Now this is exacerbated move. So be careful with that. We might get a bounce. So real quick, I think I can get the NZD in the Canada. I love it. New Zealand dollar, it's the same difference as the Canada they broke out downside. Right now it's trading at 60.91. I got 60 even as a huge support base. It gets below there. You could see another couple handles without a doubt. And then US dollar Canada. Here's another one that's breaking out to the upside. The past couple of sessions. This is another one where I think it's exacerbated. I'd be careful tomorrow, but look for a follow through Friday, baby. Have fun. Man, Teddy, that was awesome. That was some great info, folks. Do you hear all that actionable info? Go check out that Tiger Forex report. Comes with a 30 day money back guarantee, 97 bucks. Teddy kicks out. Thanks so much, man. We'll talk to you next week. Take care. Take care. Folks, stay tuned. Basil's up next. Have a great day.