 Well, I don't like to talk about Analysts too much here at Nintendo Prime because all they are doing is looking at a given set of data and Making predictions now some of these analysts are paid a lot of money for these predictions because they tend to be pretty accurate And the reason that analysts make the money that they do is because the predictions They make are the kind of things that make people money They tell you how to invest where to put your money. Should you put it in Nintendo? Should you put it in Sony? Should you invest in Niantic with Pokemon Go? It's generally good to listen to people who for a living Follow the industry trends and try to predict where things are going because a lot of us That's not what we do, right? I sit here and I talk about Nintendo all day But I don't sit here and analyze every ounce of financial information about Nintendo To see where they might be going in the future and to try to predict when they're gonna rise and when they're going to fall however Others do and today I want to talk about one of those analysts. He's pretty well known Mostly thanks to his days when he used to have his show over at game trailers Mr. Michael Pachter and I know some of you guys are cringing them even bringing up Michael Pachter How many times has he been wrong? Well, how many times has he also been right? so That's usually the biggest conundrum when talking about Michael Pachter's. Yes He's been wrong a ton of times none of those times of anything to do with his job. That's just on his talk shows but still he's been wrong a lot and he's also been right a lot and I feel like it's worth talking about What he brings up because I'd like to Discuss the general health of the industry and in this case There was a fan on his new show over at sifted and I'll put a link down to it in the description Where a fan asked him does he think that the Nintendo switch is going to outsell the Xbox one? Well, here. I will let Michael Pachter himself Give his answer our next question from sifted from Substance 104 will Nintendo switch sell more than Xbox one worldwide this year? close Close I'd say switch Could sell as many as 14 million and if that happens, that's more than Xbox one Xbox one's probably gonna sell about 10 11 million But again, Microsoft doesn't tell you and there's no way to measure anymore But I'd say Xbox one is on track for 10 11 million a year Switch is gonna do that many 10 11 it could sell more It really depends and I need to get through a holiday season to see My bias is that switch is a handheld and it's a really good handheld, but it's 300 bucks Xbox is a really good console and it's 300 bucks. So if you want to console, you're buying an Xbox You're not buying a switch you want a handheld you're buying a switch. You're not buying an Xbox so Close but I think that the portability of the switch Probably slightly dictates in this favor. I think the Japanese market, you know, it's gonna buy three or four million of them as opposed to ultimately as opposed to Microsoft is probably not even sold a million there yet, you know So it there's a lot more demand in Japan for Nintendo based products I mean the S sells not anymore, but yes, it's sold probably 20 million in Japan lifetime So yeah, I think it'll probably sell slightly more, but it's not gonna sell, you know, two X or three X And over time I think the switch will be fine I mean, it'll do 50 million If it if price comes down the curve Question is will it do a hundred? I don't think so and that's 20 million a year 10 million a year for five years for sure 20 million a year ever probably not so when people talk about this thing being as big as the week they're crazy. All right so as you could see He sees some good things for the switch not as good as Nintendo right Nintendo's goal is to have it be another We another hundred million unit seller and he doesn't see that happening But he sees easily 50 million that puts it up into 3ds territory, which is really good and That that is slightly below You know slightly ever so slightly below the PlayStation 4 right now However, you had to remember that if he's thinking it's gonna sell possibly 14 million if it could stay around that 14 million mark Now you're talking about it outselling the PlayStation 4 So it's really interesting that he feels like it could outsell the Xbox one Obviously, we already know it's moved over a million units in Japan Faster than the PlayStation 4 did and the Xbox one has still not even come close to a million units so Nintendo's already gonna have a huge advantage there plus this is before we even get the Splatoon 2 and You know monster hunter and you know Pokemon's gonna be hidden in a couple years Like there's gonna be some huge games driving sales in Japan, but It's very interesting Just looking at the general health of the video game industry Right because he brings up a point in there about how if you want a home console Xbox one is now $300 and if you want a portable you get a switch and I still I'm still a little unsure on on that aspect of things because the switch is a hybrid, right? There's no doubt. It's a portable like when you pull that thing out of the box joy cons on that thing's a portable system But it also docks with your TV and works as a home console Now obviously not as powerful as the Xbox one or the Xbox one X coming out or the PlayStation 4 the PlayStation 4 Pro But those systems are also not portable So like there's a trade-off for the portability factor compared to the home console factor in terms of cost to produce You know, yes the switch might feel like it's a little overpriced at 300 But if you actually look at what's inside of it and you look at comparable other portable devices It's really not overpriced at all But unfortunately some people don't understand that mobile tech is actually more expensive to make than the tech That's inside like the next box one now When we look at all of this data all I can think of is the industry is in a good place, isn't it? I mean the PlayStation 4 is doing fantastic The 3ds is still kicking it still doing you know solid It's still the worst-selling Nintendo handheld system of all time, but not by much anymore, right? It's almost at 70 million units. You know, we're we're looking at a pretty healthy system That's finally about to reach, you know, we're Game Boy hit and We're looking at a time when Nintendo is re is not only having those continued 3ds sales They're resurging with switch sales here and we're looking at a time when we might have the most popular Zelda game ever created Sitting on store shelves now, you know, not Ocarina of Time not Twilight Princess from what a brand-new Zelda game It might also both of them when it's all said and done We're talking about a system that's still sold out in most stores four months later I mean this system didn't release during the holiday period it released in spring and Now we're well into summer or what really well into but a decent amount into summer about a month and we're still not able to find the system and It's really interesting just to just see the See the back and forth that's going on And you know the Xbox is actually selling really really well in the United States a little bit better in Europe But United States is really the driving force behind the Xbox brand whereas PlayStation 4 has generally sold well in all territories Japan a little slower only close to five million or so in Japan But I mean that's really good for home console in Japan home consoles don't really sell in Japan Switch since Nintendo's advertising it as a home console will probably become the most popular You know quote-unquote home console in Japan in like the last 20 years or something, but yeah, I I Have to say I'm pretty thrilled at the idea And then Nintendo has publicly stated 10 million units is their goal for this fiscal year So that doesn't count the launch sales that puts it at the end of the fiscal year around 13 million units And Pactor thinks they could pull off 14 this year that would mean 17 million units by the end of this fiscal year total That is I mean, that's crazy. I think that Nintendo within its first full Calendar year or like full calendar year plus a month, you know, so we're talking about 13 14 months We're talking about 17 million potential units sold during that time And yes, that isn't the 20 million, you know that Nintendo needs to hit 20 million per year to hit You know over a five-year span 100 million, but still that's awesome The fact that the switch in its first year might potentially outsell the sales of the Xbox one this year is Insane now is it gonna outsell the PlayStation 4? probably not And I say that just because place each four is a pretty strong library of games coming and we still have all the huge Games coming this holiday now as he mentioned holiday is going to be the big telling factor, right? If the switch can become the number one selling system during the holiday season now You're talking about how the switch might potentially be able to even outsell the PlayStation 4 this fiscal year But it's gonna be tough. There's no Call of Duty. There's no Assassin's Creed all these huge games that are coming out this year That are not gonna land on switch are going to be a deterrent to buying a switch But you know Nintendo's kind of punch him back. They've got their Super Mario Odyssey That's gonna be a huge title. They've got you know, but Chronicles 2 not necessarily as big of a title as Mario Not even close to be honest, but it's still a title that's gonna help drive sales They got their Hyrule Warriors not the Hyrule Warriors. I'm sorry fire emblem warriors. They have their own big titles hitting They also get NBA 2k 18 which I'm hoping that I'm I really hope it does well because I want to see all future NBA 2k games on switch I I think Nintendo is in a position where they have a puncher's chance at leading in in console sales this holiday and You know to be honest, it really doesn't matter who leads, right? What matters is that all three of the console makers are having healthy sales And that's the market. I want to live in I want to live in a market where Nintendo Xbox and PlayStation all matter at the same time And the last time that happened really was the Wii era But the way that Nintendo mattered during that era I think was a turnoff for a lot of people because they mattered in a way that they were worried about expanding the audience And I know that that's what a lot of people think the switch is doing right expanding the audience And I understand the arguments for that But I just keep looking at the lineup of games and I'm like which one of these games is exactly close to appeal to my mom What which one supposed to appeal to my non-gaming sister? Which one of these games is supposed to appeal to you know my grandma? None of these games are coming on a switch really have any appeal factor to the same audience that the Wii games And you know Wii sports appealed to literally everyone and breath of the wild I'm sorry it doesn't appeal to literally everyone Mario Kart is the closest thing to appealing to everyone But it still doesn't necessarily draw my mom in or my dad in you know This isn't a system that is expanding the audience in the same way that we did so I feel like We're at a point now We're Nintendo might finally have a system that gamers care about and it might finally have a system that oh Not only do gamers care about but is selling well and then an Xbox that could be selling well I mean Microsoft's releasing Xbox one X is here right that's got to sell at least decent numbers for the launch month There's got to be enough gamers that actually care about 4k gaming to get it right? I mean I care about 4k gaming I want an Xbox one X that doesn't mean I'm gonna play my switch any less of course I just want to live in a market where all three matter and I feel like right now all three matter And I'm hoping all three matter by the end of this fiscal year and we're talking about Console sales that are comparable to each other instead of talking about PlayStation 4 sold 25 million this fiscal year Xbox one sold 10 million and a switch sold 5 million like that's not to me That's not a healthy market because healthy markets drive healthy competition drive better innovation for consumers and More games for consumers and everything that that's good about a healthy competitive market is really really good for consumers Anyway, this is the Tandy Ruffle Jans from Nintendo Prime if you like this video, you know what to do if you hate this video I totally understand plenty of you guys probably don't not like Michael Pachter and If you want to support us head on over to patreon.com slash Nintendo Prime for just five dollars a month You can get early access to our full podcast not the segmented version We put on YouTube every Sunday or the Sundays of the week that we have a podcast coming up Because again, we have to hit our hundred dollar patreon goal to ensure our podcast comes out every single week That being said, I hope to catch you guys in the next one