 What is up everybody? Welcome to Market Talks here on Cointelegraph, the show where we talk about everything in the market you need to know about and we've been experts to do so. I am your host, Tim Warren, and I'm joined today by a fantastic, fantastic expert in the space. His name is Adrian, some of you guys know him as Crypto Burb, but Adrian is a certified technical analyst in case you didn't know much about him. He's also the founder of the Burb Nest, a trading education platform that provides an array of content and communication from analysts on multiple markets, including crypto and commodities, but let's roll his little clip. What is going on, Adrian? How are you doing today? Doing good, love the clip. How are you doing, buddy? Doing great, man. You are one of the few people in the crypto space that I got to get jealous of because of their beard. I like to think that I have a good beard, but then I see people like you and I'm like darn it, I got a ways to go. No, hey bro, your beard is awesome. Well, I'll take it, I'll take it. From someone with one like yours, I'll have to take the compliment. But Adrian, I'm super excited to get to just jump in everything, Bitcoin, Ethereum today and get your take on what is happening. People have gotten to hear my takes and other shows, but I'm super excited for them to get to hear yours. So let's just kind of dive on into this and let's start with Ethereum. We're gonna move into Bitcoin as well, but Ethereum has been on a tear recently. Over the last two months has grown over 230%, but it's been cooling off a little bit as we get closer to this merge. I just want to kind of open this up. Let's start from a broad perspective. What are your thoughts about this ETH merge and do you think the price has already been baked in or do you think we have a little further to the upside to go? Got you. I think this is a very strong question for the kickoff. Like first of all, and first and foremost, I think that many people need to understand, you know, their position in the market like myself. I consider myself more to be a technical analyst than a fundamental analyst. I'm not going to break it down to you from the technological point of view as in what's going on on the blockchain side. I'm not much of a tech-saving guy in terms of building blockchains and then what happens actually, they're inside with a code, I'm not a programmer. So for those who actually, we're coming all the way here to hear me talking about code and program, programs that I know a little about, then they're going to be a little bit surprised I suppose, but I can talk about what I know better, perhaps a little bit, which is the market side, which is the way that the people who value and price ETH right now versus well, USDT or other currencies. And well, the way I try to approach fundamental events as a technical analyst is, well, I take it into consideration. I don't necessarily focus on it per se in terms of like whether or not it builds a value, you know, more to the upside or you know, decreases in shorts of value. Of course, there are certain implications. However, there's distinguished kind of like a difference between the TA and FA part. TA and what I do mainly focuses on what's happening inside of the market, right? What's happening on the outside of the market on the outskirts actually belongs under the category of fundamental analysis. So I naturally would try to encounter, you know, manage to understand the price and the market behavior from the perspective on what's happening inside, rather than what's happening outside, right? And the FA part there, definitely a strong fundamental event. And arguably the ETH merch is, you know, just like as important as you would have any other, you know, fundamental events in the past, like, you know, some hard forks, you know, that he would have back early in the day on Bitcoin, you know, when there was Bitcoin hash in summer to tell them, you know, and this is, of course, at an advancement which had been, I think, anticipated for quite a long time, right? Of course, there is, you know, there is Vitalik Buterin saying that there is specific, more or less time and date, you know, stamp for when the actual merch is going to happen. And this belongs somewhere around the mid-September, 15th of September, if I'm not mistaken. So, you know, many people, 19th. So it's changing, right? Yeah, 19th. 19th. So a couple of days ago, we were 15th. I don't know what's happened. I guess it's all dynamic, right? It's just the same way we have hall beings, which, you know, for Bitcoin, you know, tend to come in different unspecific, you know, maybe less specific dates and they change. Gotcha. Gotcha. Well, just like you said today, let's dive into those. Do you have charts you want to pull up and show us what you're looking at on those charts from the technical side of what the price is doing with Ethereum? Well, I mean, so I have a couple of those. Well, just to kick it off, there is this ETH chart, you know, that I personally watch my favorite time frame to look in the charts, you know, as the 12 hours here, right? It gives this nice little combination between, you know, the short term perspective and the long term perspective. It's somewhere in between. If I pull up, you know, those drawing charts, those drawing, you know, squiggles and lines and everything, you're going to see, you know, the very positioning of the 12 hour kind of like timeframe on the bar here, right? It's fairly in the middle between any long term preferences and short term preferences. So this gives this a little bit of a shorter context and a little bit still on the long term end as well. So that's why what I like, you know, approaching the markets from a 12 hour time frame perspective and there's been definitely some massive, just like you said, you know, it's a, it's already, you know, more than more than double of the bottom, right? Reaching somewhere around $200, you know, making enough basically of the balance, you know, somewhere in the upper $800, you know, range, which was exceptionally low. We had a little bit of a decent upwards rally, you know, overall there's this a little bit of a slowdown. You can tell the market is getting a little bit lazy after getting some initial push, right? Now, first of all, we were looking at this consolidation, you know, somewhere between 900s and then 1300s, if you will, of the upper end. And then it broke out nicely. It actually looks better than Bitcoin does, but then it broke out and pulled up, you know, pulled back nicely and it held on the support side and continued climb higher. However, there is this, there is this, I should say a little bit of a deterioration on the momentum side. So momentum is this very important principle in the technical analysis world, which suggests that when the money finally catches a certain direction and there are certain consensus about the direction in the market, let's say about an upward trend or a downward trend for the prices, then this direction is supposed to be maintained that it's supposed to persist, right? And it is mainly because the behavioral finance will teach you about that, that, well, the traders tend to, well, react emotionally and when they see prices growing, instead of typically waiting for them to get back down, they would just jump in on the strain leaving the station and pushing higher, right? There was this, you know, feedback loop effect kind of like pushing the prices even higher because of that, which attracts even more people. And this is the way that the bubbles are created. So here, like I said, you know, typically you want to distinguish between a very strong kind of like an upwards rally, which keeps printing new highs and new lows, respectively, but this happens within specific distance as in when there is this first high mate, right? And the first low mate somewhere over here, when it typically pushes in a strong trend, there is typically this kind of like a gap of demand building, right? You don't, some people call it an efficiency, but regardless how we call that, you know, this tiny little gap that just happens in here of unfilled demand, of unfilled bids that layer down. And typically, when people, when the market is really strong, when there is a lot of momentum, you would see those types of gaps and layers populate and they would be more frequent, right? And then of course, you know, many people see, okay, the market is already breaking into new highs. They keep, you know, the people, the traders who got their bids set up earlier, you know, at the previous encore, at the previous resistance for support, you know, they would be forced to basically bid up, right? They would be forced to put their bids higher. So they do that at the same time, you know, they kind of, you know, empower a little bit of the support that we are creating in the higher layer, right? Accelerating the rally even better in the higher. When you compare it with more corrective tide, which is different than the trend itself, it's a little bit weaker and the corrective ways tend to kind of like interfere as in they tend to overlap, right? You would see a lot of movements which kind of like do not really follow through, right? There would be a break to the new highs, but then those new highs will not be really well sustained. There's a little bit of a throwback. The new highs are made, but again, it kind of like fails to hold the new trading area there. You know, and this is like a, like it keeps making those higher highs and higher lows. So it can be classified as an upwards trend. However, it's all interfering, right? You can basically see that there is no, there is no of this, you know, strong demand layer that builds up, that pushes eventually the prices higher. It's kind of like, you know, those, well, some people call it top failures, right? Or swing failures or overflows or bull traps, whatever you name that. The more of those you see, the more conviction you may get or the more chances you may get that this is more a corrective tide than an actual trend developing. So this is important. This is important mainly because Ethereum shows you a little bit of more of this breakout towards a new trend than Bitcoin does. And this is where it gets a little bit tricky because it's still Bitcoin that is the main leader to the cryptocurrency prices more than Ethereum, right? So the fact that it is actually outperforming Bitcoin and it's actually following fruit much, much more nicely than Bitcoin does is positive for Ethereum. But I would argue that it's a little bit more negative for the entire area of the crypto as Bitcoin struggles to catch up. So that puts a lot of doubt in my mind, you know, in terms of like, if I decided to long right now, the red lentlessly, that would be probably somewhere in the resistance area and then an actual, well, many people might refer to it, a rising which pattern or whatever you name that. It's had a nice rally so far. Yeah, it has. And I know you said you focused more on the internal stuff and the charts, but what would you say to the argument that Ethereum kind of rallied mostly based off of hype? And again, as you said before, not really your forte, you don't really get into the fundamental, the tech stuff all that much. However, there clearly was a lot of hype when we heard that announcement about the ETH 2.0 merge having a date that was tangible, because again, people have been waiting for this for four years, back since 2018. It's finally here. How much of this do you think potentially was hype driven with a lot of retail investors coming in, but that we're actually gonna come back down and wait for the real fundamentals to develop? Because like I said before, let me, there's just read you a couple of numbers. First of all, Ethereum, since it hit its low back in June is up 230%. Bitcoin on the other hand is only up 42%. And then you have other projects like Cardano and Ethereum and Cardano get compared all the time. Cardano is only up 50%. Could it potentially be time, like we've seen in history, where Ethereum's gonna cool off and then maybe Cardano takes the lead and Bitcoin begins to gain on Ethereum's value case. Do you think that's possible or do you think that that's gonna, maybe it's gonna continue to be Ethereum as the frontman? Well, of course, anything is possible in all honesty, right? What I do as a technical analysis is I'm trying to make it a little bit more educated and mathematicalized guests than just playing, you know, a coin toss, right? If you will, coin flip. Of course, there is set an edge in technical analysis that may basically come under in the form of risk management, right? It helps you manage the risk nicely rather than predict set in future. So knowing that I can predict future, I can make my best guesses and try to adjust and then adjust my risk management strategy to it, right? Now adjust my position size. Let's say if I know that their conditions are more riskier than usually, I've told volatility is higher. So in all honesty, again, prices are driven up, you know, economics one-on-one by demand, right? And there are certain demand kicking in the market. You know, it typically brings some up thrust, eventually, however, technical analysis says that when there is set in price barrier at first, right? When there is set in layer that, you know, people reacted more emotionally than to the other barriers in the past, then you could argue that, you know, at first meet some opposing strength, opposing force, right? Imagine in the past this area around 1700, if I'm not mistaken, you know, had found a couple of times some solid support reaching every single time there was some decent balance, you know, and finally it rallied back into new highs, you know, in November, of course, last year, there was a little bit of an upwards reaction as well after the touchdown, you know, and then early this year, after the lunar crash, I came in. However, you know, we've already managed to break above this threshold, right? And this is where I am saying that it actually looks a little bit better than Bitcoin does because Bitcoin is, if I were to compare, you know, Bitcoin is somewhere around here, right? If you, well, of course, you know, just to play this little bit of a visualization trick, when Bitcoin, when Bitcoin, where Bitcoin is training right now somewhere around here, if I were to point out, right? It's yet to catch up with this main, with this main kind of like a support or ex support and our resistance in the 28,000, $30,000 area, while it already broke it. So there is this strength and preference also coming on the Bitcoin or if Bitcoin price, if Bitcoin pair, which is, again, holding stronger than the Bitcoin USD, which makes it over a glow up, which means and tells me that in the market, people tend to favor if right now and perhaps place a little bit more credibility to it rather than Bitcoin. And at the same time, you know, we have to understand that, well, then on the bottom, there is this 200 week average. However, if we get, if we get, you know, some other metric, perhaps, let's make it, let's make it a simple moving average, but let's make it 200 day, right? This is a kind of like a scale that you want to see to define the long-term bear market or the bull market. So you can tell that for the majority of 2022, right? We have been seeing this constant decline in the 200 day average. This of course, classifies that as more as a bear market than a bull market. In the bull market, it keeps crawling back. It keeps making new highs, keeps bursting towards new high targets and objectives. Here, we saw this inflection point, you know, and the smooth price is basically turned down. And right now we are smoothing out a little bit and making it go flat. So what it tells me is, well, technically, many people uncourt towards, you know, those long-term resistances as certain numbers. As in, if they don't know what numbers to look at, they would always play those standard technical analysis tools as in moving averages, right? They would search for 20 day moving average for 50 day moving average, 100 day, 200 day. And mainly because many people, you know, show attention to the same price levels at the same time, it comes with this self-fulfilling prophecy effect that basically makes it react in an expected way, right? It's of course never going to be perfect ideal. There's going to be some overshoots and whips as, you know, somewhere on top or on bottom. However, you see this reaction often that whenever there is a, you know, some such a strong pullback, you know, upwards of the, after the strong bear market kind of like, you know, just surge in the opposite direction, if you will. There is this tendency for the mean reversion. So it may happen that the theorem has got a little bit of more upside left. However, you can tell that the vast majority of its potential of recovering to the mean average fair value is, well, is almost gone, right? It's already made almost entire radio of its potential. So of course, not knowing the future, you know, you may guess that whenever it gets somewhere closer into the levels of the 200 average, which is 2,300, 2,200, you know, it may show some opposing force. But then when it actually happens, I would argue that what comes into play is not only the Bitcoin prices, but mainly the state of the entire economy and the pessimism that crypto investors get among any other investors in the stock markets and the risky assets. And the reason for that is that we have to monitor for stocks is basically because there is a very strong correlation. It changes over the time, but right now, the correlation between cryptos and stocks is historically high. And whenever stocks will tumble, I would expect Bitcoin and Ethereum to follow that as well. Yeah. Well, that's really good. That's going to transition us really, really nicely here. As we begin to move talking about Bitcoin, because I loved what you said earlier, how even though Ethereum's the one with the gains, the market's still really kind of moving based off of Bitcoin. But as we bridge that gap moving from Ethereum to Bitcoin, I do have one question for you. Do you use the Ethereum over Bitcoin chart very often? Is that something you utilize a lot or not something that you think is that helpful? I'll bring the charts again in a second, but... Yeah. You know, I watch, in all honesty, I used to watch more for if Bitcoin chart. I don't really watch it much anymore, mainly because I kind of like try to follow my own system. Right? So I don't need to kind of like go and try to catch 10 different trades at the same time. I would rather try to follow my own system that I have that is a trend following breakout system, very well-defined set of rules that I try to follow to ensure long-term profitability. This is what I do. This is how I solve the problem of, you know, of the lack of discipline or the lack of idea where the market is heading because nobody knows that in everybody, every trader, every professional trader will struggle with that, right? As long as you don't have really a good system in place, you cannot really commit with the amount of discipline needed to ensure this long-term profitability because overall, you know, the markets tend to trend about 30% of the time. As in typically 70% of the time, 80% of the time, the markets will move sideways, which would mean terrible conditions for a traders like me who rely on trends because I wait for the trends to get developed, right? Whenever there is this trend appearing and resurfacing after some pattern appears that is a briefer in the market. This is where I make the most money, right? Because I make the most money of the volatility and the volatility kicks in when the trend appears. So as opposed to, or the contrary to the range traders, to the mean revertors as well, if you will, you know, I try to pick what has the trend and I invest also on the contrarian basis. I made my good purchases from mid-May or the third week of May, if I remember correctly, into Ethereum to June. I was not really getting too much aggressive about that, right? I cannot definitely say that I bought the perfect pinpoint bottom, right? It's impossible, it's a lottery. However, I got my purchases earlier this year and I ever since have not really, you know, made any higher purchases on Ethereum anymore. So I'm well positioned already and especially the crypto is just one of the asset classes for me. It's not a question of all in or all out. Instead, I have a, let's say, next-order asset classes. So I don't need to make any drastic moves, man. Gotcha, that makes a lot of sense. And I love what you said right there. You know, sometimes you just gotta stick to your systems. I mean, it's always great to get to hear the people's opinions and ideas, but I know full well. Like, I mean, especially when I was first starting, I would listen to so many different people and I would constantly second guessing myself in the systems that I found work for me. So sometimes it is good to just kind of say, hey, what are my systems? What are my things that worked for me in the past? I gotta stay true to those. And that's a great point you just made right there, Adrienne. I love that. But let's go ahead and transition to Bitcoin then, fully on Bitcoin. Because again, as you said, this is the one that really determines where the market is going. You know, I wanted to ask you what you think the future of Bitcoin price looks like. One of the numbers and the levels that a lot of people are worried about and asking about is will we stay above 20,000? So I'd love for you to jump on the charts, Adrienne, and show us what you're seeing. And is there a strong and good reason to believe that we have bottomed already? We're not gonna go back down to 17,600. Or is there a chance we do end up going back down at least below 20,000 and revisiting some pain that we experienced earlier this year? Got you. Well, so that actually is what I was referring to with saying that Bitcoin is actually doing a little bit worse right now than Ethereum, basically. And the reason is again, if you remember, if it was already breaking for the main resistance, and this main resistance was somewhere at the previous levels, right? So for Bitcoin, it makes it, when we compare that and put it next to one another, it basically is somewhere between $28,000 and $30,000. So Bitcoin has yet a lot to catch up until it actually makes it, right? If we are to put it in the percentage forms, well then this basically makes you about what from current price about 20, 30% movement upwards, right? Just to catch up and like 20% to the 20,000 and about 30% to make it a 30,000. When you have it, is it going to display the 200 the average? Hang on, we'll see. Well, correct it. So I showed to guys 200 the average and that it's already had not much room left for growth there. But if we have it and display the 200 the average for Bitcoin, like I said, it still has about 40% even to make it, right? So the 200 the average is about $33,000. So this just shows you if already is, if I were to picture that somewhere around here, it's just right there at the final stage of it, right? So Bitcoin is clearly lagging behind it. And because it's lagging because of this momentum principle, this, the fact that it's underperforming for a longer period of time makes it, I would argue more persistent to continue to underperform. Same way that outperforms into our market, is going to continue to outperform. That's the main momentum principle in investing. And it works pretty well. So here, like I said, after having bounced off this medium of this major 200 the average here at the very bottom, it always was this very strong supporter, however you named that. We've seen a little bit of a bounce off, right? Over rebound, however it struggles. It really, really struggles to break higher. And if we go to lower time frames, this is very visible. Again, my favorite 12-hour chart, right? It shows you the very same set of averages as in 200 day average on the top and just dotted curve 200 week average. So those are the two averages that I watch. And those are not necessarily because I don't know they predict future or they're going to give you the perfect answer where Bitcoin is going to be in the next year and five days and five minutes. Instead, it shows you the averaged value, the averaged price, the averaged smoothed price, right? So technically, based on the long-term timeframe and the long-term trend of Bitcoin, Bitcoin should be trading somewhere around here, around 33,000. And it's trading severely below it, right? It's trading like again, with the potential of a 40% move just to meet its long-term fair value, if you will. So based on that, I would argue that we're on the underappreciated part rather than overappreciated. But if I were to guess whether Bitcoin is more undervalued or undervalued or overvalued, I would argue that it's on the undervalued side. Yeah. So knowing of that again, you remember that if had this nice, nice push and it continued higher and it's from this nice little wedge, somewhere closer to its 200-day average, respectively. And when you compare it with Bitcoin, it's barely making those new highs. This is this more corrective tied-in movement that I was referring to. It keeps kind of like making those new highs, but they're barely made, right? There is the cloud, new high, but there is a failure. So a new high is made. There's another push, another high is made, but there is another failure. So another resistance line can be drawn if you will, right, and on many traders. Well, there's another failure. And so this just crowds back up slower and I would argue that it's a bit more lifeless. It's a bit more momentous, right? So this tells me again that if it does not really catch up all of a sudden strongly and sharply to the app side, trapping many, many shorts building already up here, you know, I would argue that this may put an end to a premature cancellation of the bear market rally. So I'm saying bear market rally because 200-day average, which defines the bear market or the bull market, is declining. So this clearly is a bear market, right? So any rally within a bear market is called a bear market rally. So I would argue that again, with ETH showing relative strength against Bitcoin, Bitcoin actually being the leader of the entire crypto currency scene, if you will. I feel and I believe that if there is some, you know, if there is no one next to birds that all of a sudden, then Bitcoin may really actually, you know, well, just make it bad very not nicely, right? If you know what I'm saying. So it may really cast a bit of just pull back down. And when it happens, when it happens at this stage, you know, seeing this a lot of weakness on the Bitcoin side, I think that many traders may not only get their stop losses or triggered, you know, and closing their positions, but at the same time, there's this overall relief from a lack of reports, upwards rally, and then the traders may get really more aggressive about their sales. This believing that it actually may get higher. And I would not be surprised if that actually happens for real. Hmm. Man, those are really, those are really good points. But I'm going to last question I have for you before we wrap it up today, you know, based off of everything you just showed us on the charts. And I know that you're, you know, you're not here to give financial advice. I just want to hear about you personally. Are you saying right now that you're more excited about the potential of Ethereum or Bitcoin? So like, if you could choose one of those to be investing in right now, which one would you be choosing? Oh, gosh, this is a hard question, right? Because in all honesty, any, any financial advice or, or, or attempt to, to, to, to, you know, find their, find traders own financial opinion is by understanding one's needs. So for everybody, you know, this is going to be a different answer because some people would prefer to make it to have it more risky, right? As in they tend to, they tend to make, take more risk. They are more risk seeking. The others are more risk averse. I consider myself to be more risk averse than risk seeking. So for it, you know, I would probably either, either stay in cash if they missed the entire rally or probably play with, with, with Ethereum until it reaches its target. It's not much, but because there is moments in my Ethereum, right? Much more than on Bitcoin. I would argue that this is what traders prefer. And as long as this is what traders prefer and put their money into, right? This is what creates this, this, this thrust basically this, this movement, this push towards perhaps meeting this, this, this magnet and core of 200 day average somewhere around 2,300. So may this be a short term trade? But, you know, if I were to choose Ethereum or Bitcoin, I would probably pick Ethereum, but it's, it's just me. Yeah. Well, Adrian, thank you so much for coming and joining us here today and bringing those charts and that, that take you have all fascinating stuff. I love getting to hear diverse opinions on the market space. If you guys don't follow him already, make sure you go follow him at crypto underscore, underscore burb on Twitter. He's got some fantastic stuff. I've been following him for a while now. You don't want to miss out on what he has to give. That is all we have for you guys in today's video, but make sure to keep tuning in every single week for more market talks here on coin telegraph with that being said though, I will see you in the next video. Peace.