 Hello and welcome to the week ahead video with me Dave Madden. Today's date is Thursday, the 12th of July and the time has just gone 1220 British summer time and we're looking ahead to next week Which is which begins Monday the 16th of July until Friday the 20th of the July Taking a look at the major economic indicators that are to work next week on Monday We have Chinese GDP fixed asset investment and industrial production Because wider picture has been that Chinese growth has cool greatly between 2010 and 2016 That's in 2016 the Chinese economy is going to plateaued a lot growing Growing in around the kind of six point seven six point eight six point nine percent region And that's respecting out of China in the latest second quarter GDP numbers It's also worth pointing out that the that the the tariffs that have been posed on the United States They're unlikely to make an actual impact on this reading in terms of GDP and also fixed asset investment and industrial production But future Readings could be impacted by the tariffs as of this week There's also talk the President Trump is going to impose another 200 billion dollars worth of tariffs against Chinese imports in August That could also like I said could also have an impact on Chinese economic indicators at the back end of this year Looking ahead to Tuesday and Wednesday We have the UK unemployment rate and average earnings on Tuesday and the UK CPI rate on Wednesday Unemployment in the UK is at the levels that seen so last last seen since the 1970s We are talking multi decade lows So any kind of increments in any other direction of say zero point one percent isn't really going to make a whole lot of a difference Traders are really going to be focusing on the average earnings figures And in the last number of months the average earnings in the UK has been growing faster than that of the inflation rate The cost of living rates, which is obviously good because it's actually boost income in real terms and allows for an increase In disposable income and the more consumers spend quite frankly the better for the British economy It's also worth pointing out that the slide in the the inflation rate in the past few months is likely to be assisted By the by the firming up of the pound on the back of the most recent Bank of England meeting Three of the policy makers voted in favour of a rate hike Which gave the British pound a bit of a boost on the holiday in the Bank of England's chief economist Was one of those well one of those three members who voted for a rate hike and Mr Howl then did this I should put a floor on her pound and essentially Put a stop to the kind of important inflation that the UK's be going through in the last couple of years Speaking with the keeping with the inflation team moving on to Wednesday We have inflation figures from the Eurozone that the flash figure for June came out 2% Which is the ECB's target as the headline inflation figure. I'm talking about it was the highest reading since February 2017 But it's fair to say that a lot of a of the increase in inflation of the head in the headline figure has been done With the surge in oil price But it is also worth pointing out that the core figure with strips of commodity component is also at a multi-month high So it shows as a genuine increase in demand Which is the in the Eurozone which obviously the which is obviously something that central bankers at the European Central Bank Want to see speaking keeping again with the inflation theme Canadian inflation is true out on Friday and essentially the headline figure as cool ever so slightly since hitting a three-year high in February But the actual core figure which strips of commodity Poland's has in broadly rising for the last You know nine ten about ten or eleven months It's also worth pointing remembering that the back of Canada raised rates yesterday and it was your second interest rate hike in 2018 And it goes to show that the country economy is continued to grow and demand is Irrespectable, it's also way for the back of Canada to actually kind of keep up with the Federal Reserve in terms of rate hikes throughout 2018 In terms of corporate stories on Monday We have second quarter figures from Netflix on Tuesday We have second quarter earnings from Goldman Sachs and a Thursday. We follow your figures from sports direct So I'll take a look at some of the major markets more popular markets and see as in terms of a price action What we could expect So as you can see here after the fucking 100 hit a her all-time high in May We have seen a bit of a cooling in terms of the price action I think there's still looking a bit tense given the the trade standoff between the US and China We obviously gained a considerable amount of ground between March and May And we've given given some of that ground up But it is worth pointing out we could be in the beginning of a downward trend And our trend is defined as a series of lower lows and lower highs And if you look here after the all-time high in May We then had a lower low a lower high a lower low a lower high and notice that The market didn't really get get beyond this level here 7,700 and while we remain south of it They all might remain a bit on the negative side and if we do push push the downside We could be looking at targeting the late June low of 7,400 and 82 and if we go beyond that We can really head back down towards this yellow line here at the already moving average at 7,438 If you do manage to clear 7,700 That'll be that'll be positive for the futsy 100 and if you have a size of a break north of it We could be looking at targeting the mid-June high of 7,794 The German market the DAX is also Looking a bit on the shaky side thing is that Germany The German manufacturing sector could be in the far e-line should Donald Trump actually wrap up his rhetoric against the EU in terms of Actually the trade talk at the moment things are still looking a bit more a bit more positive than they are in In regard to say Chinese Trading relationships with the US but that could all change in one tweet as you can say here If you take a look at the price action and the DAX since the middle of June We saw a steady steady a sell-off in June support was found in on this area here at 12,000 123 the market did match to bounce back and became some of the losses, but the market has turned over on itself again This area here 12,600 region that has been acting acting as a very decent level both support and resistance recently so Probably remain south of that the outlook might remain negative for the German market If you test up so if you continue to push lower from here I could we could look ahead back down towards 12,000 250 or need back down to the end of the recent notes of 12,123 if you do manage to have a decent break north of 12,600 that area there we could be looking at our getting the spread line here the Paternity moving average which comes into play at 12,000 seven seven hundred and eighty one And if you go beyond beyond that we could really get it back towards 13,000 Take a look now at the S&P 500 S&P 500 has held up Recently well consider what's going on in terms of the trade negotiations at the standoff between the United States and Beijing The broad picture is that ever since since April of the S&P 500 is going to in an upward trend I would see this a series of both higher highs all along here and also higher lows So broadly speaking in an upward trend. In fact, we're not too far away We're pretty much out the June high here So if you need to push on higher, we could be looking at targeting a high nuts level not seen it since early since early March I want to 2,800 and if you do manage to take out 2,800 that will then be putting us on target To these levels here in around two thousand eight hundred and thirty five If you do manage to drift lower We may find some support coming to play in around the fifth the moving average this blue line here Which comes to play at two thousand seven hundred thirty seven or perhaps indeed here at the also at the yellow line The one of the moving average which comes to play at two thousand seven hundred nine Take a look at what's going on in the gold market Gold is the under pressure recently given the kind of in the Give it a sell given the the valley or the firmness in the US dollar US dollar these and a strong In relation between the two markets as you can see here Go to the multi months low six month low Only only at the beginning of this month and the market appears to be turning over on itself yet again If you take off this low here of twelve thirty six, we can be making any back down towards 1204 11 not seen since 11 not seen since July of last year So we're you know, we're approaching the previous six month and oh, which which was a six month low And we could very easily be looking at it one year low quite shortly on gold If the gold market does measure rebound from here I'll manage to take out this this level here the most recent high of 1265 beyond that we could really carry back towards 1284 and then beyond that we could any backup towards 1300 but the trend is very much in a downward mode mode at the moment Take a look now at the you know versus the US dollar So the the single currency started losing a lot of ground versus the the US dollar between April and May We've managed to find fairly decent support from this area here in at one spot 1510 Why we remain north of that? I think I think we could see we could see a We could see further by come into play But notice how this pushback here didn't actually manage to hang off the most The most recently at the mid-June high of one spot eighty five ten eighty five One spot eighteen fifty one if they can't match again above that area I suspect we could speak in a bit of a of a trend a In a bit of a range here It's fair to say support is decent in it once by 1510 But also the recent high failed to take off this area here and once about 1851 So we could be looking at being a bit range bound on the euro versus US dollar a break north of this area here Once about 1851 could put us on track to test the big psychological number 120 and move south of this area here a one spot 1510 could set us back down towards 114 And last you know taking a look at the pound versus the US dollar Service duration here. We saw a fairly steady decline in the palm rest of US dollar since April We haven't really had the same level of support coming to play That the euro has versus the US versus the compared to British pound It's not very much in a downward trend as you can see here lower low lower high lower low lower high lower low We have seen the market much to bounce back here I'm a high here to be fair to it did I she managed to take off this high here But we're still very much in a downward trend that and it will appear at the 50 moving average This blue line here at one spot 33 35 is acting as resistance And while you remain stopped of that if the outlook could remain negative if you actually push Push lower from here We could look at actually retesting the basic low of one spot 30 49 and if you go south of that We could really get it towards 130 the figure itself. Well, that's all three this week. Thank you very much