 Good morning, everyone. Thank you for being with us here this morning for one of these opening sessions of the World Economic Forum. My name is Jason Bordoff. I'm the co-dean of the New Columbia Climate School and director of the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. We come together at a time of unfolding energy crisis and I fear that may get worse before it gets better and we may look back on this as I've written as the worst energy crisis since the 1970s, not only an energy crisis but in not unrelated food crisis and of course an ongoing climate crisis as well that we cannot lose sight of. If the world needed any reminder that energy geopolitics are not only alive and well but are inextricably linked to whether we can accelerate climate action, it has been world events of just the last few months and those intersections between energy markets and geopolitics and transition, the energy transition is what we spend all our time thinking about at the Center on Global Energy Policy and the Columbia Climate School, an inspiring day last week where we just had the first ever class of graduating students from that new school, the first of its kind in the United States. We needed a little bit of inspiration because in many ways the current outlook, as we're going to talk about in a moment, is not so great. Oil prices well over $100 a barrel, record high, at least on a nominal basis, gasoline prices, diesel markets in crisis, eye-popping natural gas prices, record coal prices, and mind you, this is all while much of Russia's energy exports continue to flow to market. Meanwhile, global scientists are telling us there's a 50-50 chance we'll hit 1.5 degrees Celsius in the next five years. We have Minister Puri here, temperatures, the combined temperature, heat and humidity index in India this month reaching temperatures pretty close to the level beyond which the human body has trouble surviving outdoors. So what do we do about these multiple crises? How can governments and companies and civil society work together to ensure affordable and secure energy supplies for people today while continuing to accelerate the clean energy transition? Because we are not on track for our climate goals of net zero. We're fortunate to have some of the real leaders in government and in civil society with us today to talk about these questions. Going down the row this way we have Robert Heybeck, he's the Vice Chancellor and Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action for Germany. So as Vice Chancellor he's at the forefront of Europe's response to the energy crisis caused by the invasion of Ukraine. Catherine McGregor is the CEO of the ANGIE Group. She has extensive experience in both oil and gas and also in planning for the private sector's role in the energy transition. Fatih Barol, known to many of you, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, and under his leadership the IA has really taken a lead in guiding the transition to global net zero. Now is working closely with governments and private firms to address today's energy crisis. Next to him is Hardeep Singh Puri, the Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas and Minister of Housing and Urban Affairs for India, a country that both needs to meet rapidly growing energy needs affordably and is facing some of the worst impacts of climate change. And then last but not least is Vicky Halab, the President and CEO of Occidental Petroleum. She's been a leading voice in the oil and gas industry for stronger action to address climate change and is the most senior female CEO in the industry. We're honored to have all of these people with us here on stage. Before we start let me just acknowledge this session is being live streamed. Welcome to those of you who are joining virtually. And after a brief conversation here on stage and a bit of polling with the audience, we're going to open it up to questions from the floor. We have a microphone to pass around. If you're posting about the session on social media, please use the hashtag WEF22. Without further ado, let me turn to the panelists. Vice Chancellor Haybeck, let me start with you. Germany set out ambitious targets for a clean energy transition. It's now facing the challenge of significantly reducing dependence on Russian energy supplies and finding where alternative energy supplies can come from. Talk about what actions Germany's taking to both reduce dependence on Russian energy, particularly Russian gas, as well as oil, while keeping on path or hopefully accelerating the path to climate goals. Thank you very much. And good morning, everyone. I think that this panel and the whole conference couldn't be more timely. The questions you raised and the questions everyone has on this mind, they are really of, they have a high influence of everything that is going to happening in the next days and the near future. So I can briefly talk about Germany, but maybe I can give a broader picture from my point of view that it's not about Germany, this discussion, I think, it's about the world economics and the world energy problems. But Germany actually is trying to, of course, diversify its fossil imports from Russia, coal, gas and oil, and we do it with, compared to normal construction and planning times in Germany, incredible speed. I would say light speed. So what takes decades is now done in months, and we are really improving our ability to get things done, which hasn't been done so good in the past. So we are building up LNG infrastructure in Germany right now and try to get new suppliers for oil and for coal as well. But this is only short term, of course. This is only one step in the direction to become, not only independent of Russian fossil fuels, but of fossil fuels. So from my point of view, this caring about a new security of energy supply is not a contradiction to the greater goal getting independent of fossil fuels at all. So we have a number of legislation acts now in the parliament that should care for the increased installation of renewables all over the place in Germany. And this is the link to the greater picture I feel, and I would like to share with you. I think we have at least four problems or crisis right now that are all interwoven. We have high inflation in some of the countries in Europe, in the US, and a lot of other countries. We have an energy crisis, you must call it this way. We have food poverty, and we have the climate crisis. And we can't solve the problems if we are only concentrating on only one of the crisis. But if none of the problems are solved, I'm really afraid that we are running into a global recession with a tremendous effect not only about climate protection and climate action, but of the global stability at all. So imagine that part of the world is starving next year. It's not only about hunger, which is terrible enough, but this is about global stability. What will happen in countries that aren't, well, they have, let's call it dynamics, if part of their population is really starving to death. And we have seen, from my point of view, the brutality of the Russian regime. So from, I think, most of your countries and my country, it would be unimaginable that we say, okay, then maybe 100,000 lives are lost, and I got rid of sanctions. This is impossible to imagine for us, but for the Russians, it's possible. I think we have seen it. So three short, I would say, lineouts for an answer to give the panel over, to hand the floor over to my colleagues here. First of all, I would say that we have to stick to global markets. If we are now, and this is a tendency I feel everywhere in the world, also in my country as well, also in Europe, if we are now saying, okay, first of all, Germany and other countries are caring for themselves, then we will increase the crisis. If we are only caring for our own food supply or energy supply, it must have disastrous effect on the prices on the market. So first of all, we have to keep the markets open. Second, we have to see that we have to solve one problem, not on the back of another one. So if we are now increasing the production of fossil fuels and coal power plants all over the place, there's a draw in India. You mentioned it. We will definitely have more problems in the next years to come. So we have to see that climate neutrality, the big issue of the conference 2020, so two years ago, it seems like ages, but two years ago, it's not gone. So we have to solve one problem with the solutions of the other problem. And third of all, when I mentioned open markets, I would like to stress out that the roots of the markets, they have to change. So the globalization, I would, I think de-globalization is a wrong phrase. We shouldn't admit to that. We have to stick that we have, that we collaborate in one world and have some solidarity in the world, but therefore we have to change the rule of the markets as well. So these three things, I would say, give an idea where we have to heat to and maybe this conference can also lead some ways into a more sustainable future. Thank you. A really important message, very relevant for the world economic forum that we need more and not less global cooperation and coordination at a time when, as you said, many countries are looking inward, saying let's take care of ourselves, restricting exports. Just a very quick follow-up on a topic of the day. Are we going to, where do conversations stand, say with Hungary and are we going to see a ban placed on Russian crude into Europe and then eventually products maybe gas? While you have to ask the commission, as they are doing the talks, of course we are seeing the worst of Europe, that some, only some states are blocking the development and we have seen it in other areas before. I think there are different solutions possible. First of all, I would admit and I have done the same for Germany that the countries have different situations. There's a difference between, let's say, Portugal and Hungary or the Baltic states and Spain. We have to be very careful that we are not applying the same rules for everyone and not seeing the difficult situation some states are into. But saying that, I expect everyone, also Hungary, that they work to find a solution and not saying, okay, we have an exception and then we will lay back and build on our partnership with Putin in times of this. Saying that, I think we can, I can imagine that we have special exceptions for Hungary, for example, maybe some other countries, but they must lead to a common answer. And what the best thing that has happened in the past three months is that Europe and the transatlantic partnership and coalition of a lot of countries was very firm in their answer to the aggression of the violation, I would say, of international law and we can't, let's slip this away. So staying together is the most important thing. Thank you. Catherine, you heard the Vice Chancellor talk about these multiple crises, energy security concerns, soaring energy prices today alongside climate crisis that requires a faster shift to clean energy. Talk about where that puts a company like yours in the immediate moment, but also, and you think about your longer-term plans. Yes, thank you. Thanks, Jason. So, NG as a major European utility player is really at the heart of what is unfolding, a very large energy crisis in Europe, but not just. And we're obviously working on solutions very much in line with what the minister was mentioning earlier. The first one is really around diversification of our supply. So this is something that we are doing, obviously leveraging the flexibility that energy can give to Europe. I'm sure Vicky will talk about that. Second aspect, and you've talked about it, is around making sure that we leverage and reinforce the strengths of our European solidarity, but also infrastructure. It is indeed very, very important that we continue to build that. There is, for example, fantastic gas storage infrastructure in Europe. We need to make sure that whatever we do, reinforce and strengthen this infrastructure, but also the market design to support the risk sharing between countries to make sure that Europe remains as strong as it has to. And the last point is around, in my mind, what needs to happen, which is around accelerating the energy transition. Because renewable energy, whether you talk about power or even gas, will reinforce European energy independence, because it is energy that is produced locally. It is very important, and I am pleased to see the movement that Europe is taking around repower EU, which is really looking at that. At NG, we have a very ambitious target around renewable energy, both on renewable power, but also on the gas. We have seen today some obstacles, but it is really fantastic to see the states working towards lifting some of these obstacles, whether it is administrations, bureaucratic. And maybe I will talk a little bit about a point that is really important in Western Europe, which is around the acceptability of renewable energy. You have to understand, for those of you who are not from the continent, that there has been a very strong pushback against those windmills or even sometimes solar plants in Europe. And what I am hoping here is that with these crises, this acceptability, we can transfer that and translate that into appropriation. That the European citizens finally understand that the energy transition can be a solution to that energy independence challenge that is thrown at us. Of course, keeping in mind affordability, which is really the very narrow path that we need to stay on. And maybe just to finish on this acceptability, what is very important, it is about the pragmatism to understand where we are starting from. So today, we have infrastructure in Europe, we have the gas infrastructure, we have electricity infrastructure. And of course, we want to go to net zero carbon. We have to make sure that we design a path that leverages all this infrastructure, therefore integrates both electricity and gas in order to get to that endpoint, which is why we are excited about the bio methane potential adjacent, as well as hydrogen a little bit further out to make sure that we can get to that net neutrality, carbon neutrality in the most affordable way, taking advantage of our existing infrastructure and where we are starting from. And just a very quick follow up on so again, as I did with the Vice Chancellor on what's kind of top of mind in the news today, just can you say a word about how companies like yours and others will respond to the demand for payment in rubles and what that'll mean for Russian gas supply to Europe? Yeah, Jason, we are working out a solution which we hope will allow us to continue to play a role as a key energy player in Europe, which is to provide gas supply to our customers for heating and industrial production. And we've worked out a solution which seems to be agreeable to our supplier of gas, but also, of course, compliant with the sanctions as well as making sure that we don't take any effects risk, for example. So we see how that goes. Fatih, look, the International Energy Agency, we've been talking about energy crises and lots of references back to the 1970s. I see Dan Jurgen here, he can in Q&A tell us about how this one compares to the 1970s, but that's, the IA was built in response to that moment of crisis in the 1970s. You've been writing forcefully about both the current energy crisis, but also the need to transition to a very different type of energy system in the future. Can you talk about how we respond in this moment to that dual challenge? Thanks, Jason. So I think both colleagues mentioned, you mentioned, Jason. I think we are in the middle of the first global energy crisis. In the 1970s it was an oil crisis, and now we have an oil crisis, natural gas crisis, coal crisis. They are all price skyrocketing, and the energy security is a priority for many governments, if not all. It is why it is very simple. The reason, until 24th of February, Russia was the number one oil exporter of the world, number one natural gas exporter of the world, major play in the global coal markets. And the international community, most of the countries, are pushing back now Russia's aggression. And as a result, we are seeing the global energy crisis here. And, of course, we are not living in a dream world. The world has to replace those oil and gas coming from Russia with me first with oil and gas and other technologies. I completely agree that the immediate response should include additional oil and gas bringing to the markets, but I prefer that our immediate response does not look in our energy infrastructure for fossil fuels for many years to come. So how do we do that? First, we have to make the most out of the existing oil and gas fields, which are already there, plus shale oil and gas, because it's quick to come to markets and go from the markets. Jason, we have huge amount of methane emissions escaping now. Fixing them in just couple of weeks of time is much easier, much more economic and much quicker to bring additional gas to the markets. LNG, Germany and the other countries are building in a hurry LNG terminals. When you build them, I understand but when you build them, put 10%, 15% more investments to make them ready in the future to use for ammonia or the hydrogen imports. Plus, I really hope that, I hope Mr. Minister will also mention, there is a significant amount of spare production capacity in several producing countries. I hope they are going to make a positive contribution at this stage to the global energy security. But in my view, the biggest part of the response comes from putting emphasis on clean energy, renewable energy efficiency. And in my view, in the countries where they have nuclear capacity increasing the production there, Belgium is a good example here. Now, what is my worry? My worry is the following. Some people may value the Russia's invasion of Ukraine as an excuse for large scale, a new wave of fossil fuel investments. Why I do worry about that? At least for two reasons. One, it will forever close the door to reach our climate targets when I look at those projects. This is number one from a climate change point of view. But number two, I think this is also important to note, that it may not be, as it seems now, a lucrative business and good investments. Because everybody talks here, the companies, advanced economies, energy producing countries, energy consuming countries about clean energy transition. If they do what they say, even if they do 50% what they say, those fossil fuel investments may be idle in the future. So there's a business risk as well. There's a climate risk and there's a business risk for large scale fossil fuel investments here. One should take it into consideration. Because when you make today, we talk about the licensing of new oil fields. I mean, how many years you need to oil to come? From the exploration, many oil executives here, from exploration to first oil to come to markets today, you talk about the 2040s. So is this emergency situation continue in the 2040s? Or either we are not, we are saying, if we all say we want clean energy transition, either we don't believe it, or what we are doing is not in line with our business portfolio's interest. So we have to make a choice here. And in my view, Jason, we divert does not need to choose between an energy crisis and the climate crisis. We can solve both of them with the right investment. I understand the current priorities today to fix the energy security problem. It's a big problem, especially in the developing energy important developing countries. But we should forget that one of the reasons why we have such high prices and the security in the major developing countries is the heat wave, which is a result of the climate change. It is only the beginning. So not to large scale fossil fuel investment, especially coal coming in big time in some countries, but also others. And yes, for the quick responses to energy security challenges altogether, as many colleagues said, but without forgetting the climate risk. And a quick follow up for you. I think when people hear some people what you just said, one question is the time frame. So we look at move faster to permit transmission lines and build solar and wind faster. Well, that sounds good, but it takes time. We have trouble permitting things. And I know I was encouraged to see Brussels recently issue a directive saying we have national security as well as climate reasons to want to permit that faster heat pumps in every home. I mean, this takes time and you're worried about this winter and next. And also a lot of conversation on alternative sources of supply, as you just described. I'm struck that I don't hear as much conversation as I think perhaps there ought to be about demand as well and conservation and efficiency. And what can we do there? Efficiency is the, as I mentioned, renewable energy efficiency. Let me give you one example. As international energy agency, we made two big push in terms of energy security. One of them is we released substantial amount of oil stocks to the markets to provide the buffer for the oil prices. It is equal to about 1.5 million dollars per day. It's a huge and it's comfortable. I think India for the supporting position there, lots of oil to the markets. And I want to remind that it is only 9% of all the stocks we have. We save a lot of oil stocks if necessary. We can still bring oil to the markets. And the second, we made a 10 point plan. How we can, in a hurry, reduce the demand for oil and gas. Let me give you one example. This winter in Europe will be rather tough and in Germany and elsewhere. One of our analysis show that if we bring in Europe the thermostop, the temperature, two degrees lower, it is enough to save 20 BCM, which is equal to the gas coming from Nord Stream 1. Demand set measures do count not only in a hurry, but in the long term. But there are some short term demand set measures also in terms of oil. Mr. Minister would remember from his previous days, the tempo limit, reducing the speed in the highways. Or every second day the cars go into traffic. Or car free sun, as we have in France, we hit because of the avoid the air pollution. So there may be some short term and the structural energy efficiency policies. This is a key solution. But again, renewables, and in my view, nuclear power, they are all part of the solution. We are not, I want to make it clear. We are not, we don't have only the choices of fossil fuels to answer this problem. We need fossil fuels as well in the short term. But let us not look in our future by using this current situation as an excuse to justify some of the investments being done. Time was, it doesn't work. And morally, in my view, it doesn't work as well. Strong message. Thank you, Fatih. Minister Puri, I'm very interested in how the conversation we've had the last 20 minutes or so looks from your standpoint in a set of countries with so many people struggling to significantly grow energy use do so affordably what the economic implications of that are. And talk a little bit about the energy situation India today and globally and what your priorities are for investment for today's energy situation and for tomorrow. Thank you very much. Let me start by with the some of the takeaways from the discussion so far. Then give you some idea about what our energy strategy is in India. And also then provide, if I may, a little perspective in terms of how the world looks or how the situation looks from where we are situated. First and foremost, I would have no difficulty in subscribing to the assessment that we are facing a number of crises. It's not just one crisis. The energy crisis is there. It's real. I think I agree with the narrative you set out to provoke us into a discussion. I do have some doubt because you use the word unfolding. Let's make no mistake, oil at $110 a barrel constitutes a challenge for the entire world. The lead economy in the world, $20 trillion economy facing inflation rates which are highest in 50 years. Another country with which I've had a long association, steepest decline in standards of living since the Second World War. I could go on and on. There are several elephants in the room here. And I think one need to acknowledge that we need to be able to navigate successfully out of the current crisis without adding more problems in terms of sustainability and going green. I totally agree with that. Now, let me give you some quick seven points on what are the Indian energy strategy is. And I encapsulate these seven points in the words of the Prime Minister who said, accelerating our efforts to move towards a gas-based economy, we're already moving from 6% to 15% of our overall energy mix. Cleaner use of fossil fuels, particularly petroleum and coal. Greater reliance on domestic sources to drive biofuels. Achieving the renewables target of 450 GW by 2030. Increasing the contribution of electricity to decarbonize mobility. Moving into the emerging fuels, including hydrogen, specifically green hydrogen, digital innovation across all the energy system. Let me, because of the shortage of time, just pick up one issue. Biofuels. I was posted in Brazil around the period 2006 and 2008. The Government of India then was trying to go down the biofuels route. But all that we could manage by 2014 was a 1.4% of blend. Today, we are already doing 10% biofuels. In October, in August and December, I have two of my plans coming up using second generation technology, producing 90 million litres of ethanol from agricultural waste and bamboos. A small example. We had a target of 20% biofuel blending by 2030. Because of the situation we find ourselves in, we are bringing it forward to 2025. So a target for 2030 is coming to 2025. Mr. Moderator, if the global crises that we are facing has taught us anything, we need to accelerate on the transition. And we are doing it in a large number of ways. But let me also share with you the perspective that we are a country where 60 million people go to the petrol bank every morning to fill up. 60 million. One of the things that we need to ensure is to make sure that there is no energy shortage in any form in a large country which has a population of 1.34 billion. See what's happening to countries around India. I'm nearly stating a fact. Four or five countries around India are in severe dire straits. It's happening in countries all over the world. So we need to be able to navigate our way out of this current energy crisis and into an accelerated transition to green energy. By the way, since Russia is an issue which has been addressed, I was asked some time ago by my foreign minister who was going to the United States. He asked me, what is our dependence on Russian energy? So I told him, and maybe there was a mistake in the audio, I said the Europeans buy in one afternoon what we buy in a quarter. So I don't know what happened in the question and answer session. He said, my colleague, the petroleum minister, told me Europe buys in one afternoon what India buys in a month. No, it's in a quarter. We ended last year with 0.2%. Now we buy some countries around us. But if we are in a situation, and listen, I want to say this with a sense of responsibility, where energy supplies or the cost, energy will come in from any country. I have a submission to you. This gentleman sitting next to me is a friend of mine. I have many conversations. I do not believe that the world today is facing an energy shortage. We are facing a situation where the amounts of energy being released in the global marketplace are short of the demand. That is what produces an inflationary situation. Now I have been around long enough in a previous profession. I don't get into discussions on causation too easily. Whether that inflationary situation is due to trillions of dollars of stimuli that was put in or due to other factors, not important. Fact is this is the situation. And if my German colleague raised the word, I think if we are going into a recession with a capital R, now if that happens, all these several multi-layered crises will reinforce each other. So gentlemen, ladies, let me submit to you. We need to move on the green path faster. I have no doubt. But to manage a transition from where we are today to a sustainability path also means you have to survive today. I mean, my friend brings in additional things we do. I agree with that. But we must be able to help each other at this point of time. Otherwise, if large economies start facing multiple pressures flowing from not, you may have new crises. So that is a perfect lead-in, I think, to Vicky Hallab. What I heard is there is no lack of supply. We just need more of it to come to market and we need to not lose sight of a green transition in the longer term. So, Vicky, you have heard India, Europe say we need more energy today, including oil and gas. Are we going to see that from the US? And also, what does that mean for companies like yours in terms of what the minister just said about also continuing to stay on the path of a transition? Okay. As the oil and gas CEO on the panel here, I want to start out by saying that I believe that climate change is real and it's happening faster. And that I believe in an all of the above approach to climate mitigation. And that is the use of renewables. We use solar in our operations, the use of wind power and electric vehicles. We've got to do everything we can to mitigate climate change. And I feel that, though, the conversation really should be more about what are the emissions and how do we mitigate emissions? That what goes into the atmosphere is causing the problem. It's not the fuel source used. Because when you look at wind and solar, electric vehicles, all of those have a carbon footprint, too. So we have to mitigate the carbon footprint of every other alternative energy that we're going to develop. I think the best way to do that is to use a strategy where we can actually produce carbon neutral oil. And producing carbon neutral oil comes from the use of CO2 injected into a reservoir, part of which remains sequestered and ultimately all of it gets sequestered as you cycle it through. You can therefore create carbon neutral oil. The carbon neutral oil happens because it takes more CO2 injected into the reservoir to produce the oil than the oil emitted when used. That's critically important for the transition because nobody's talked about cost yet. And the cost of the transition is going to be enormous. And if we can't find ways to help fund that and find ways to develop our oil and gas less expensively as we go along and through this transition, we're going to be in a tough situation worldwide. And I don't think we can make it happen. And so going back to one of the things that Fadi said, which is very, very important and something that I think is another way the oil and gas industry can help with this energy transition. And that is we shouldn't need to develop as many new reservoirs is what we have traditionally believed. Because if you take CO2 and you inject it into a reservoir, you're going to get more of the oil in that reservoir than you otherwise would. Take, for example, a conventional reservoir. In a conventional reservoir, depending on the conditions in the reservoir, because there's variability in all reservoirs, but the most you're you're likely to get in terms of production out of that reservoir is probably 50 to 60% of the hydrocarbons at most. But in most reservoirs around the world, you only get 15 to 20%. And those reservoirs where you get only 15 to 20% of the oil in the ground where you've already spent all these investment dollars to build the infrastructure to get that oil out of the ground into the market. If you don't have to duplicate that if you could get if you could double the recovery from those reservoirs without having to go develop another reservoir of that type, then you have eliminated the carbon footprint caused by that duplication of infrastructure. So Fadi's right. We've got it aggressively out of the reservoirs that exist today. That's where we should be getting our oil of the future. However, I don't think that we're going to run that we can eliminate the need for oil in the next coming decades. I don't know when we're going to be able to eliminate it, but if we make this transition, if we try to push it so fast that we're not prepared to eliminate the use of oil and gas, then we're going to be in a worse situation. And we're seeing that happening happening today. We've got to plan our energy transition around what we know we've got to accomplish with respect to fueling those industries that are hard to decarbonize like the maritime industry, the aviation industry. Those will be the most challenging for us. So as much as we want to promote the use of alternative energy sources and nuclear or haven nuclear, we want to use nuclear in our operation too. So those are things that we've got to do. And we're pushing this really hard because again, it's sequester CO2. It produces carbon neutral oil. It generates the funds that will help the transition. And if we think about getting back to that and getting back to it's about the emissions and working on the emissions, that's how we can, I think, get to a better place. And the U.S. can provide the ample resources to the rest of the world. We have a lot of oil and gas resources remaining in the United States and we can provide it to the rest of the world. However, it's becoming more and more difficult to do that because of the fact that we're getting a lot of headwinds to do it in the United States. And one is the belief that we can end the use of oil and gas sooner rather than later. And when you have that kind of rhetoric and you create an environment where people believe that's possible, then it makes investors and others less willing to invest in the industry. It makes us a weaker industry and likely unable to continue to help with this transition. I want to open it up to questions from the audience. We have two questions for live polling to get a sense of the room and then there's some real deep expertise in this room and I want to make sure we have the chance to hear from all of you and there's a few people here I want to call on too. So you can participate at Slido.com entering the hashtag energy outlook or you can scan the barcode right here with your phone and it'll take you to it. So I think the question comes up on the screen. Now we see one of the problems of the day everyone is raising a smartphone. In old days you just raised a hand so we could also save energy but not using the smartphones but raise a hand. Well these are two different things. You're going to raise your hand to ask a question. Okay people are having difficulty with the barcodes. They're two different things. We're going to do questions from the audience and you're going to raise your hand but we're going to take a poll of the audience and that was Slido.com if people can scan the barcode or go to Slido.com and enter the hashtag energy outlook. So well let me first get a show of hands on how many people are actually able to vote on this polling question right now from your phone. Okay there's a couple so let's do it. So question is do you expect the global energy crisis to slow down or accelerate the energy transition needed to reach 2050 global climate targets? Slow down slow down in the short run but accelerate in the long run. Accelerate in the short run but slow down in the long run. Energy transition will accelerate from today or no impact. Obviously multiple choice gives you imperfect options to vote on but pick whichever one you agree with the most and I think we'll see the result in just a moment. So wow we got a lot to talk about. So there seems to be an interesting divergence of opinion about whether this is going to slow us down or speed us up so that we'll come back and talk about that in a moment. And then I think we have one more question. What do you see as the highest energy priority that will require action by government's company civil society in the next 12 months reducing emissions, improving energy security, improving energy access, reducing energy costs or achieving greater independence in energy. And again multiple choice doesn't give you the ability to acknowledge that these are all important priorities but I think the trying to give a sense of how people weight these different things to the extent there are trade-offs. So what's interesting about both questions is just how much divergence of views there is in the room. There's not an overwhelming consensus on anything and I guess that is why we're here talking about this and struggling with it because the people up on this stage are trying to manage multiple different priorities. So now I'm going to open it up to questions from the room. I think let me start with Dan Jurgen here in the front row and I'd like to come to Lawrence to be on the next and there are microphones to pass around. Thank you very much and thank you all for the panel. Minister Heybeck, getting divorce, Europe's getting divorce from Russian energy is you know better than anybody's a very big challenge. Can you tell us how your thinking has evolved since February 23rd about it and how your sense of the options has evolved since February 23rd? And I think let me just hear from Lawrence as well and then we'll give chance to respond. We might take two or three at a time. Thank you. First question to Mrs. McGregor. Fatih Biral mentioned a very important issue of me saying how are you dealing with your company on that? And to Minister Heybeck, we see that eastern countries and western Balkan countries want to come back under the umbrella of EU. Do you think that climate policies, the Green Deal and clean energy could be a rallying cry or would be adding difficulties to our policy? Let me start with you Vice Chancellor and then Catherine and if anyone else wants to weigh in and then we'll come back to other questions. Yeah, first of all I think the right answer was it will speed up the transition, the energy crisis right now. Did you vote on Slider? No, I don't have my phone with me but I have a microphone so that I can vote for my own. Because it's one of the cheapest forms of energy we have the possibility to get and of course it takes one to three years but definitely we will see an increase amount of renewable energy in Europe and worldwide right now. See what's happening in Australia for example and we heard just Mr. Puri from India what they are doing. This is really, this is going to happen right now and then the market will follow. Now actually we are at the brink of a politic wanted transition but very short time it's a market transition so customers will ask for green mobility, green warming and so on and so on and there are companies not offering that. They will have a disadvantage. This is what's going to happen right now and in Europe the phasing out of Russia fossil fuels I think it's happening in a tremendous speed at least for Germany. I can say that we were over two maybe one and a half decades the German politicians they increased the dependency on Russian coal, gas and oil and this was a strategic mistake and this was repaired or is in the in the verge of being repaired over weeks I would say. So this is something happening but of course the problem is but Mr. Puri and Osafati has stressed out not buying Russian oil and maybe reducing the amount of Russian gas we are using in Europe is not saying that Putin is not earning lesser money. We have seen it all over the last months now that they have earned a fortune and not only Gazprom and Putin has earned a fortune but also some companies have and so this is what I meant when I said we have to keep the markets open but we have to change the rules. Of course there is enough fossil fuel on the market but the prices are skyrocketing with disastrous effects also in Europe but the more in countries that don't have such such amount of money to buy LNG to whatever it costs and and there we have to fix it. So there are some ideas one would be that we we agree that we don't pay any price. This is of course not in the market system promoted as the web over the decades because the market will repair the problem but I don't think that this is going to work right now. So we we have to be if this is a change in times then we have to change the rules as well. So I think there must be more creativity more flexibility to think the unthinkable and to come to solutions of a short term that we don't give all the money to Putin and spoil the markets and come to disastrous effects in other countries. We see what's happening. You're right Mr. Puri if we have a global recession or if we have a food crisis because we are the prices for gas are too high and we don't have enough fertilizers in the world. So what's going to happen there? So we have to fix this and we have to do it with a new form of leadership not to say we've never done it before in history. This is not an answer. We have to find new solutions and we have to find them fast and maybe this can can can can can be part of the solution as well. If we have a mood to move forward and not to shy back. I agree. It would be instructive to have this kind of a polling done in some other parts of the world. There the cost of energy would come right up. It would take the whole band there and and then you know other things will follow and that would in a sense also reinforce and accelerate the pace of transition. It's one but just a little bit of sales pitch on my side. We have the lowest solar costs in the world. Abundant sunshine. We have we are going to be the critical drivers of demand. So come to India and participate in our energy transition programs. Thank you for the invitation. Catherine I'll just ask the panelists to keep responses brief if they can because I want to get more people in from the audience but there was a question for you and I think there was a question about methane and and I guess the control of methane leaks. So we're not producing natural gas at energy but we operate infrastructure. So here it's all around operational excellence. And then in terms of buying gas from our suppliers we actually benchmark the CO2 emissions from the various suppliers and we try you know and favor obviously the low carbon suppliers. So in the Norwegian for example have the lowest CO2 emitting methane from all and in terms of some of our provider from the U.S. for example we also engaging with them with the concept of responsible source gas which allow them to make commitment auditable commitments on how they are extracting the gas producing the gas and transporting the gas to make sure that indeed the methane emission problem is as low as possible. And lastly I will just mention that it's also very important that we green the gas and therefore you know focus on bio methane hydrogen green hydrogen and derivative is going to be really the future of gas that will fix the the methane problem forever but that's a bit a bit longer term. Let me take a few more comments questions and I'll come to you Fati next I know you wanted to come in on this too. Yes so our company the question group is a diversified family business group based out of the UAE one of our subsidiaries Pearl gas is the largest gas producer in Iraq with great potential to deliver large volumes of gas including into Europe that's the disclaimer ultimately security of supplies underpinned by security of demand so what I'd like to know from what I've heard today is how do you reconcile the position that on the one hand there's this urgent requirement to replace 150 billion cubic meters per year of gas you know displace or replace from Russia with what we were hearing from my friend Fatih that cannot be a commitment for more than a year or two how does one reconcile those two positions which from a sort of producer perspective could very easily lead to even greater under investment which would even you know complicate the issue even more and lead to even further crisis in the near future. And let me take another comment I think I have lights in my eyes but I think that's Zainab Usman. Hi Zainab Usman from the Africa program at the Carnegie Endowment in Washington DC my question is for Fatih Birol how practical do you think your advocacy for the immediate transition away from fossil fuels is and I ask this question with respect not just to the timeline which has been extensively discussed here but also in terms of the use cases of fossil fuels take oil and gas in particular in your messaging you seem to imply that oil and gas are only used for electricity generation and also transportation but there are a lot more use cases fertilizers in particular clean quicking solutions you know petrochemicals and other things like that so for many parts of the world that are not in Europe your message tends to be or is perceived I know that's what you mean but the way people see it is that their opportunity to industrialize by these industries will no longer be available to them so how would you respond to that thank you thank you Zainab Fatih we'll start with you okay first Jason I wanted to go back to the poll and I would if I could I would vote for this station may really exit the clean energy transition why do I say this you mentioned the beginning 1970s in 1970s the oil crisis not only ended up with the high inflation and the recession but also innovation in the energy technologies I give you one number during those years an average car needed 20 liters for to go to drive 100 kilometers 20 liters and right after that right after that is a response to the oil security the average car needed about 10 liters to drive 100 kilometers it was a response to the crisis and now we are lucky now compared to 1970s because we have readily available competitive technologies now clean energy technologies which were not solar or wind or electric cars they were not there in 1970s but we have them now with us or hydrogen for that sake so they are I am therefore more hopeful and I think the climate commitments the country is made and companies made if they do at least I said 50 percent what they promised to do it will accelerate coming to the question of the oil companies now there are oil companies and and I say oil companies we automatically think of the IOCs in the the or the majors in the western world but the oil companies which are NOCs national oil companies as well when we look at them Jason there is a very important number I tell you in the last five years on average the oil and gas industry revenues was 1.5 trillion dollars until just average they make money 1.5 trillion dollars this year this 1.5 trillion dollars will jump to four trillion US dollars we have never seen this in the history no four trillion US dollars so what are we going to do what are they going to do with this a windfall revenues this is a key question there are three basic three options they invest in their the traditional business second they pay back to the shareholders and third at least some of them they used to invest in the clean energy technology as they said they are going to do this can be a very good opportunity for those companies to show that they are really sincere that the amount of this historically record windfall revenues goes at least a part of it to clean energy transition third question are we going to need oil and gas in the in the future of course we will nobody said we will not of course we will but if we want to keep africa which is the content which is the least since in terms of the emissions but we'll have the worst effects of climate change if you want to avoid this a worse effect of climate change for africa and the rest of the world we have to reduce their use especially coal followed by oil and followed by gas and dear colleague we cannot in my view we cannot apply the same recipe in my in my view to all the countries i cannot look at one european country and mozambique i cannot compare that if mozambique today 65 percent of the people don't have an excess to electricity and if they have a natural gas deposit nearby to tell them don't use natural gas would be a wrong very wrong way of doing it but globally there are not two ways either we reduce the use of fossil fuels or we are all happy to live in a planet which is completely different than today we have to make it it's so simple so they are not we it is now i think the gray zones this current crisis will reduce the gray zones and i will also contribute to that and we have to all be transparent what we are saying what we are doing and what are the implications of that and finally i imagine this four trillion u.s. dollars and we are going to come up very soon those companies what they said and what they do in terms of the amount of money they allocate for the clean energy investment in their overall portfolio how does it look like we are going to publish these numbers and we hope that in addition to those companies helping the energy security they also help the clean energy transition as they said they are doing i'm going to give each of our distinguished panelists 30 seconds for final comment or reflection and if they stick to 30 seconds we will end on time and i will not get in trouble with our organizers of the world economic forum so what what i'm curious what what could surprise us in your view with respect to today's energy crisis or the energy transition that maybe we haven't talked enough about in the coming year if you have a thought about that you can feel free to ignore that question and offer any other reflection you want in response to the conversation we've had so you don't need to follow directions on the question but you do on 30 seconds vice chancellor let me start with you and then we'll just go down the room the best hope we have is that everything can happen faster and cheaper than we ever thought before and this happened in the past time you mentioned ua a when i was there they told me that one day they want to achieve a price for kilowatt hour under one euro sand for renewable energies so if this is going to happen then the rest is done by the market and i think we all estimations were wrong we were faster and cheaper with renewables than we ever thought and if we continue this path then we have a fine idea of the future thank you Catherine yeah very much along the same lines i think we'll be surprised i think it's going to be a big success this energy transition we do need to get the private public partnership regulation and technology pieces to all pool in the same direction it's going to be a critical success factor party thanks jason so i think my message is very clear we have an immediate energy security crisis with high cost we i hope we're all together consumer countries producer countries north all of all of us together make the most to address this energy security challenge which was caused by the russia's invasion of ukraine without looking in our energy infrastructure for fossil fuels in the future we should not try to justify the the a new wave of long-term fossil fuel investments on the base of what mr putin uh did thank you minister prairie all stakeholders in the global system need to do some serious introspection and subject whatever they've been saying and doing to a reality check we need to deal with all these crises simultaneously without allowing the solution of one crisis to exacerbate the other crisis so you've got to navigate your way out of the high cost situation this is not sustainable at the same time you have to accelerate the green energy transition taken together yes we will come out of it the costs will be there there will be pain but at the end of the day we'll be working towards a better energy world thank you vicki i would say that uh i'm optimistic that that ultimately we'll get there i just don't know how many more oil and gas supply crises we're going to have before we can get people to seriously look at the reality of the situation and how much the oil and gas industry can and will do in this energy transition and yes we are spending dollars again we're going to we're going to build the largest direct air capture facility in the world in the permeant basin we're going to expand it around the world we're going to prove that technology and we've made the commitment and the dollars to do it i think that if the rhetoric around the world though continues to want to kill fossil fuels then what you said is exactly true people we will ultimately lose the opportunity to help the energy transition and if we lose that opportunity the transition fails thank you thank you no pessimistic nope i'm normally not pessimistic this was a this was a great discussion uh we heard the need for more not less cooperation coordination i think the wef is a unique place uh to be able to do that and as we heard really grappling with multiple crises inflation food energy climate and struggling with how to reconcile those things so this is just day one we have several more days to have these conversations we've raised more questions than answers but please join me in thanking our panel