 Hi, my name is Leon Roeb currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com and welcome to this week's Appliant demand forex technical analysis if you're new welcome and if you're returning welcome back and Please don't forget to like subscribe and share if you find my analysis useful also the technical analysis Charts are time stamped in the description box below in case you want to skip to those But I prefer if you really kind of watch the fundamentals and sentiment analysis as That's what really drives the market and gives you your really your your trading bias in which way you should be buying and selling an understanding of value so Getting into the fundamentals and risk on a risk off sentiment for last week And we'll go into this week as well But last week was an interesting one So first of all, you know last week Monday, we had the major news was really about the The Australia sorry the New Zealand cash rate, but before that we had the Australian cash rate that came in as expected and So statement by Philip Lowe governor of the RBA said at the meeting on the day that the board decided to leave cash rates Unchanged at 1% so there was really no surprises with regards to the the Australian Interest rates where they were gonna cut further they've cut twice already this year So it was expected that they were gonna end up holding the main surprise really this week was the New Zealand dollar actually cutting more than expected and Yeah, so that caught the market really kind of off-guard And so, you know a stunning decision Arby and Zed the Bank of New Zealand delivers huge surprise with 50 basis points cut to the official cash rate Banks quickly react Mortgage cuts and dollar the dollar drops. So that caught a lot of traders off-guard and there was a Trading opportunity there to get short live if you were up at well London time would have been three in the morning and then Really the next Kind of major important news. I mean China had their CPI which was okay and The pounds the pound The British economy really shrinking month-on-month pretty much went to zero is expected at 0.1 So pretty much flat-lined and we can see you know in the In the summary Right, so it says so it's official UK economy It contracted by 0.2 in the second quarter worst performance than stagnation predicted on average by economists beforehand and Hit new loads against the dollar and it just continues to sell off with you know, the uncertainty with Brexit and Because what businesses really are are gonna be putting in any new investments into the you know The UK economy until really Brexit is sorted You know, we've been saying this for months and months why get long on the pound just because you know prices pull back for a week Or two doesn't mean you should you know start to look to get Long I mean there are obviously trading opportunities technically, but the overall should be to the downside So the pounds is gonna continue And expected to continue to really kind of fall and then You have the Canadian dollar, right? Terrible numbers from in from employment and the unemployment rate went up as well not great at all and Now the shift in focus Potentially now is Canada job slowdown boosts case for Bank of Canada rate cuts again My my analysis in the private group we've been talking about this and now the focus is now shifting to Canada jobs for me and for us that the Canada is Canadian dollar is a sell Yeah, and now we're getting you know, the markets really starting to agree You know the data confirms This this this fundamental bias so that happened last week So this week what we have looking for the week ahead We have the US we're publishing inflation rate. That's going to be very important retail sales industrial production housing data and flash Michigan consumer Consumer sentiment but out of that the inflation rate is going to be important because obviously it affects The interest rate and what the Fed are going to do going forward with either continuing to cut interest rates Or if they're going to hold if they they probably hold interest rates if inflation is probably at target or just a bit more Elsewhere are they important releases include UK unemployment wage growth inflation and retail sales? I don't think any of that really matters too much And what I mean by that is even if there is positive unemployment Potential wage growth. It's all about Brexit and even if inflation is up You know and I think inflation probably should be up because what happens is inflation goes higher as the pound weakens Or what that's what should happen anyway but Brexit is really is weighing on the Pounds economy eurozone trade balance and industrial production Germany Quarter two figures, I think that's going to be important as well as Germany is Eurozone's powerhouse so anything that affects Germany and if their GDP figures second quarter are poor Then that's going to have a knock on effect on the whole of Europe and really the euro currency China industrial output retail sales fixed asset investment and house prices index Guess that's best more to do with probably some sort of risk-on sentiment over the global Economy is slowing down as China is the biggest economy in the world Japan machinery orders corporate goods and prices And Australia consumer and business morale wage price index that would be something to probably look looked at as well as as an inflation measure and employment figures and again that would be Important for the Australian Dollar so lots to look forward to the main ones being probably the any kind of inflation Readings so fundamentals and sentiment over now. Let's look at the Price charts and starting off in the Dow Jones dollar index and the Dow Jones from last week Pretty much that Jones dollar index is a measure of dollar strength against the major currencies like the euro yen the pound and Sorry that the dollar really has been You know strengthening even though there has been a rate cut. So you probably expect to pull back at some point The dollar is really the best of the worst to be fair We're in a low interest rate or low inflation environment So all central banks are really trying to get ahead of the curve by cutting interest rates It's had not this every desirable effect and Donald Trump wanted a weaker dollar as well So he can have a bit of leverage regarding the trade negotiations with China But this week what we had was prices really didn't hold At this demand zone and what how you use the Dow Jones dollar index is really just to look for potential Strength in the dollar on the dollar index and then you would go to the Other dollar crosses and look for you know dollar strength or dollar weakness. All right, so at this one Two three eight level We've seen the dollar kind of stagnate as a stagnate but really kind of hold at that level Go kind of sideways So there is Some sort of demand here not necessarily strongest level of demand But that the at demand zone here wasn't necessarily strong And also remember as well The best really place to kind of buy you know the dollar if you're looking at you know a low to a high You're waiting for more of a pullback at the at the end of the day You're buying if you're buying a dollar you're buying a dollar at the highs around here So you prefer, you know Kind of like pullbacks to potential, you know fair value 50% You know zones we go Look at the actual chart Can delete that now Can delete that now what I'm saying is between this low and this high. Yeah If that's an expensive area Right and that being because let me know that for sure because Prices didn't go high. There was no demand there. There was definitely strong demand here So an expensive bargain area 50% is what we call fair value So if you are looking to buy the dollar, you know, you're looking for you know fair value prices You know preferably but if prices still start to go higher that could be confirmation on your other dollar forex pair so going into The week what you want to look for is If you're looking to short the dollar potentially if inflation comes out this week and it's not looking great either You know look for confirmation within that supply zone or what you probably may may see is prices start to Come down and then come back up back up into this created supply zone before looking at Short rates so That's pretty much your options and again just use that for confirmation And I think the dollar may probably Look to potentially you know sell off and pull back any pullback time again I'm a buyer of the dollar as again It's really the dog with the least fleas when it comes to you know the its economy and And overall bigger picture of macroeconomics Moving on to the dollar yen and the dollar yen This last week really with the week before previous week we had a lot of risk of sentiment and prices came down into this long-term demand zone and it's reacted around here so Risk of still being in focus less risk of last week it was a bit of a demand zone from way back in March 2018 and then we had a bit about bounce off here and Second touches because this would be the first type second touches are are decent as well So third touches I start to think to myself. I don't I'm not really trying to get involved in that price action because the more a Zone is touched the weaker it becomes So Zooming back in if we are looking at getting long on the dollar and we see some decent inflation numbers then This is you know a buy on the lower time frame as we've touched this this demand zone here If you are looking at trying to get short technically we've made a supply zone right here As you made lower highs lower lows. This isn't drop-based rally rally base drop. This is proof of value trading So what you'd probably want to see is A move back up into this supply zone and then look for potential short trades again the Japanese yen Strengthens in a risk-off environment And the risk-off environment is where there's a lot of uncertainty Whether it's political monetary You know things like war and things like that so We've risk-off really kind of being in the spotlight at the moment This could be a decent shorting opportunity for example on a lower time frame You know like maybe like the four hour one hour or whatever you were you Time frame that you do trade we use the daily demand zones You know for our overall bigger picture Analysis and then we look you know to capitalise You know to capitalise and enter on the lower time frame so Those are pretty much your options either a buy right now as you come into that demand zone or and then looking for a sell Looking for a bit more detail around that zone. You're probably looking at that area there as This was where you've got a bit of support bit of resistance in that zone as well So not only do you have potential value from the supply zone You also have our technical traders looking to get short at where support support and resistance zone So you're going to have potentially you know sell trades within this area of supply Moving on to the dollar Swiss and the dollar Swiss this week Last week You know there was no demand here looking at potentially a trade around this zone But didn't provide no type of entry and now we've come down into this lower demand zone which I do like I haven't entered yet looking for a potential entry around this area if it gives me one But I think the dollar again is the stronger at a two and the Swiss Frank at the moment According to the Swiss National Bank is highly valued very highly valued What does that mean they want a cheaper? Swiss Frank overall So they may want to intervene at some point But until that day I'll be still buying the Dollar Swiss so looking for potential entries to the upside If this demand zone doesn't work out then I will be looking at Definitely this nice fresh area of demand right there We can see that this level you know has been touched If we look at the demand zone from From here This was the fist was the best entry to really get to take and then we've touched here again So this is the second type second touches on as good as the first type So not saying that it don't work out, but they have a lot probability of working out But it could still work out never nevertheless And I'll be looking for potential entries for the guys that are in the room of me in the telegram room You know what we'll be looking for you know the stop-hunt entry This is looking very nice for a stop-hunt trade setup So we'll be looking closely at that and again if that doesn't work out We'll be looking by trades prices do come down to this area right here If you're looking to sell the Swiss Frank again Again, you'd be looking for a good price to come all the way up here and look for a short trade like that Or you'd be looking for prices to break this zone Yeah create a lower high and a lower low and then look for price to come back to this Supply zone before looking at getting short So those are your overall options if you're looking to get short and take advantage of risk off Moving on to the dollar CAD This week there was a supply zone entry pin bar I always said that I'm looking for a pullback looking to buy the dollar over the CAD CAD is a bit weak and you can see where you know what's pretty much happened So we've got a move up and now move down And that's back into actually demand So this could be a nice trading opportunity this week And I think it just might be with the CAD now Potentially going back to the news article You know Canada jobs slow down boost case for Bank of Canada rate cut Now the market may start to factor in a rate cut And if that's you know the rate cut would be quite beneficial For the US dollar So if we look at a live chart I'll show you what I'm talking about So there was a supply zone And this is why we really want to use fundamentals with supply and demand zones Because you know the Canadian dollar regardless wasn't going to be a sell Against the US dollar Of course price can do what it wants in the market is random But the high probability trade really wasn't to get short It looked like a really good supply zone But it's all about value and understanding value And now we've got proof of value We know that the US dollar has been a bargain here Now potentially if a shift in Canadian sentiment Potentially we're looking at buy trades here Buy trades around here And that's just from a fundamental perspective If you are looking to take any short trades on the dollar CAD Because there could be some obviously surprises with the US dollar Then you'd be looking at really another rejection off of here Before looking at getting short Again you can see where prices reacted off of this supply zone So there was an opportunity to get short around here this week But I think preferably looking for some long trades around here Or around this 1.34 level Also we've got here, I think that's about it Let me just clear these arrows off Next is the New Zealand dollar US dollar And this week we had the surprise 50 or 0.5 break cut So there was an opportunity to get long before the news But the surprise really kind of pushed prices below that demand zone This week So let's look at something in the chart So we can pretty much clear that demand zone And that demand zone I said last week that is probably likely to break anyway Because this demand zone had been touched several times If we look back at the origin of this demand zone here You can look where it's been touched once, twice So the third time is never the one to really take And then obviously prices broke through with the assistance of the rate cuts So where do we stand at the moment? At the moment there's really no supply zones until really all the way up here No hidden supply or anything like that So I think there is supply around here to be fair But I'm not going to draw it in because it doesn't really fit my rules of what The definition of supply would be when it comes to candlestick formations So at the moment you're even looking for lower lows And then look for prices to come back up into that zone If prices do start to come up What you want to see is higher highs, higher lows first And then you want to see lower highs, lower lows That would create the supply zone right here And then you're looking for prices to come up to that supply zone And then look for the sell trade So that would be ultimately the formation that you would need to see With bullish and bearish candles before looking at getting Short on this currency pair further up If you are looking to get long, let's see if there's any demand There was demand from really down here Yeah, that level's held a little bit So this is where we have some demand And if we go back a little bit more I mean to try and use any kind of demand zones from 2016 It isn't going to be the best, but as long as it's there It's something to just keep in mind on the chart So in order to get again long, you could get long Right now I'd probably look for this 64, 0.64 round number Before looking at getting long But again I'm buying a US dollar over the New Zealand dollar It's not just my preference And yeah, I think that any kind of buy trade You'll be looking at going to the low And then looking for maybe something like this And then looking for a long trade like that On the lower timeframe chart Moving on to the pound dollar The pound dollar has really just been under a lot of pressure Again, there was an opportunity They'd have a bit of a supply zone in here Prices pulled back to that 1.22 round number Before getting short So again there was supply Here taking out all the stops probably below For maybe anyone who's looking to get long in the pound So let's look at pound dollar Pound dollar not looking great at all Really isn't So right now Again you'd be looking at any kind of pullbacks into This supply zone before looking at short trades As far as long trades goes I think you'd be a brave, a very brave person to look for that And what I'm going to do is I'm going to move this all the way down here And I'm going to move that And let's see if it doesn't not yet I'll keep that Just so that it touches the end of the candlestick Yeah, so right there Just so that we've got a bit of clarity with regards to The supply zone and the demand zone But again it's not the usual way of drawing supply and demand But there is some demand here Again, even though it was from October 2016 It's, you know, as far as the way we draw supply and demand And identify and demand There was demand here back then Doesn't mean it's going to be the same thing now But just for technical analysis purposes I'm going to keep that where it is As the bottom of this level as well is where Traders will be looking at You know, it's going to be quite significant for the pound as well There was a bit of a level where you have traders will be looking at Here for a level of potential support As it was support in the past And again, I don't know how significant that is going to be But my bias is you really need to try and get short So just waiting really for pullbacks to try and look for short trades But if you are looking for long trades Then probably now around this 1.20 round number would be The trade to take Moving on to the Euro dollar And the Euro dollar from last week Had a nice push up I was looking at potential short trades within this supply zone But there was no price action here So couldn't take any trades And then there was some decent price action here I'm not actually in this Euro dollar short I was looking for something more specific And it didn't really occur So, yeah, I think the Euro dollar If you did get into this, it's decent You've got enough trade, you've got enough space To kind of have the downside as well So a decent, decent entry around here Let's take away this supply zone as there's no supply there And also what I'm going to do is update this level This demand zone right here Quite a wide demand zone But if you are taking that demand zone then That level there within That demand is going to be the first area to look for Potential long trades And then really the bottom here is going to be nice If you're looking to buy the Euro No, not buying the Euro, not at all Not with Mario Draghi looking to add stimulus Potentially within the next month or so Doesn't mean that this can't continue to go higher Because it could take out all the stops I can put it back, there's a lot of traders getting short around here At this zone and these zones Lot of stop losses above there So we could see prices go a bit higher Taking out those stops And then start to fall away Or even start to maybe make higher highs, higher lows In the lead up to the announcement ECB's announcement and the higher this goes Just means that you're buying at a better price As far as buying the US dollar At a better exchange rate So a couple of attempts will be decent to get short Or we could see prices really just fall away Start to sell off as we go into the coming month And when Mario Draghi may want to announce potential stimulus It's a buy the rumor sell the fact Whether he will or he won't Is something different But I think the market will be pricing in And looking to price in the stimulus But I think the focus right now Is on probably the dollar first And then what the ECB does So if you got in here on a lower time frame Any kind of entry around here On the hourly or whatever time frame you trade It will be decent I think But I'll be waiting for something just slightly Potentially slightly higher Around here before looking to get short Moving on to the euro yen And the euro yen last week We did have a bit of a reaction here But this demand zone really didn't hold It wasn't necessarily the most significant A bit of risk off coming into the market as well So if you look at where that was There's way back there And I think that level's pretty much gone now It's a bit of an awkward one But we'd want to see proof of value with regards to Whether you should be buying or selling So you'd really want prices to really kind of prove That there is demand here before looking at Getting long at these levels Or if you are looking to get short Then you'd be looking for prices to kind of break this This area here And then look for pullbacks into a supply zone And that's if you're buying the Japanese yen If you're buying the euro Like I said before You're waiting for proof of value first Before looking at getting long Or you'd have to wait for price to kind of Come down to this longer term demand zone And again that demand zone was created Way back in 2017 So I don't know how significant that's going to be But I'd probably say wait for Some sort of proof of value first Wait for the markets to say that there is You know demand there and then wait for pullbacks A lot of traders try to pick the lows And there are times where we can pick the lows And there's times where you really want to Maybe just wait for the market to prove that there is And have a bit of patience So this is really what you want to see before Looking to get long on the euro And remember with supply and demand The whole premise behind supply and demand Is not the fact that you're looking at a technical pattern Is your understanding where value was So if we're looking at this area here This was obviously a bargain price For the Japanese yen against the euro Hence we had prices fall away So if prices come up here again And nothing has changed regarding the fundamentals And maybe the sentiment is still the same Then this should be a bargain again For the Japanese yen That's basically what we're doing We're understanding what's happened in the market previously And then understanding if price comes back here Is that it's going to be a bargain again So let's move on to the Australian dollar, US dollar And I think the Aussie ended up holding At this lower demand zone And I think the Aussie may want to move a bit higher But I'm overall wrong We're still going to be short on this currency pair It's just now looking for where to potentially get short So again, if you're looking to get long You'd be looking for price to come down To anywhere around here before looking at long trades If you're looking at any kind of short trades Either you're going to look for price to make a new low And then look for a sell trade Back into that supply zone there Or again, as previously pointed out What you're looking for is kind of like a higher high And then look for lower lows And then look for prices to come back into what would be This would be the supply zone right here And then look for kind of like a short trade To the downside So that's really the pattern that I'd be looking for Before looking at short trades And finally we have the Aussie Yen And the Aussie Yen suffering from a risk of sentiment You can see from last week Prices have kind of stabilised around here And this larger demand zone Zoom out a little bit So it was really a demand zone from way back when But you can't even see it on here But we'll look at it on a chart Aussie Yen It was way back from July 09 So we are seeing a bit of proof of value But we want to see prices really kind of make Higher highs, higher lows Before looking at getting long What I'm going to do is I'm just going to Drag this down a little bit as well Just so that it's a bit clearer I'll leave that like that And so if you are looking to potentially get long Preferably what you want to see is Higher highs, higher lows being made And then prices come back And then look for the long trade If you're looking at getting short You look for prices to make lower lows Lower highs and then wait for a pullback Before getting short And again I would probably say wait for Maybe some sort of risk on sentiment To kind of come into the market Risk on sentiment would be where you have I guess the trade wars aren't necessarily in focus I think the Australian dollar and their economy Is actually doing okay Is doing quite well from last week You know you did have Where is the Australian Was it the week before I think it was the week before I think you had the Australian dollar What was it? Yeah so you know CPR was decent 0.6 Above you know estimates And there was some other Aussie news That was actually quite decent as well Intel sales as well Was okay so It looks like the interest rate cuts From the central bank Are starting to take effect On you know the Australian dollar Or the Australian economy so It's not all necessarily doom and gloom And even in moments of risk off There will be pullbacks so I think this might be decent for a pullback But let the market prove that And then wait for kind of pullbacks That zone So but if risk off continues Then it's literally just trying to get short And actually this is A bit of a supply zone right here So if you are looking to get short You'll be looking for a really price to come up to this 7250 level on a lower time frame Let's go down to maybe the one hour So I would say anything above that zone A fresher area of supply around here 7250 Before looking at any short trades If you want to take advantage of risk off So that's it for this week Hope you enjoyed the analysis Let me know if you have any questions And I'll try and get back to you as soon as possible And for those people who have emailed me And I haven't got back to yet Don't worry I'll definitely see you And I will be getting back to you Of questions and emails And it's summer as well Busy busy busy But next week There won't be a A weekly analysis So it'll be probably the following week Or maybe the week after It'll take some time off So guys I hope you have a great week And actually if I don't speak to you I have a great summer as well And just manage your risk Go for more than your risk And yeah Hope you guys have a great trade and we can take care