 to Steve Rose as we do each and every Monday at 20 past the hour. And don't forget, folks, Steve has an outstanding show here every trading day. One to two Eastern standard time also has a great newsletter. Mastering probability. Now it's very easy to get Steve's newsletter, folks. Come over to our website at TFNN. Go into newsletters. You're going to see it right in the right hand side. You can subscribe to Mastering Probability for one month for $149. Six months for $695, which is a savings of $199 at 22%, and one full year for $1195, which is a savings of $593 at 33%. Now they all come with a 30-day money-back guarantee, folks. Steve has huge amount of information on the site as soon as you get the newsletter. So you're going to get an incredible education for a very great value in a monster way. Steve Rose, what's happening? Well, I know it's happening. You're probably watching in Pebble Beach, right? Well, yeah, I certainly did turn it on as my show this morning was starting. And I finished, I think, around 1.32 o'clock with Justin Rose winning. He did? Okay. Yeah, he got a pull for guys in their 40s, but pretty extraordinary weather that they had out there. I heard you this morning at 40 degrees. I can't imagine 40 degrees out there with wind because I, you know, yeah. And the Pacific, well, the water, you know, the Pacific water is full, so, yeah. So I've played out there a number of times and have had all kind of long underwear, everything. Oh, my God. And 42 degrees. So in Florida, I won't play if it's in the 50s. Exactly, yeah. And it's not worth it. But when you're out on the West Coast, you know, you're on vacation, you're traveling and so forth, you sort of don't have a choice. Right. Well, you do have a choice. You can just say, OK, I'll keep the $600. Yeah, which is about what it costs these days to play Pebble Beach between the Greensfees, the Caddies and so forth. It's a good 600, 650 bucks, you know, let alone a few golf balls that you might lose along the way. So picture this, I have pictures, me, Tommy and Caitlin, right, playing. Yeah. Pebble Beach was so cool picture. This could never happen to any more folks. This is how crazy it was. I came back from Alaska fishing. We came back with Big Halibut. I gave the halibut to the chefs there. He's cooking it up. Caitlin's all of five, six years old. No, she's seven, Steve, she's seven. You know what they did for her? So picture this, Tommy and I are in with one. I got Tommy a caddy and thank God I did because it was amazing. And they gave Caitlin a cot and she had her stuffed animals and they let her drive it. She says they were always driving. It was amazing. I mean, you know that would never happen now. Like would she drive it up Pebble Beach, man, with her hat on. And you know, it was it was awesome. It's an awesome place, folks. If you it's insane, it really is. You know, it's just it's as beautiful as you can be. I personally, I could not live out there. It's just too cold, you know, for my it is it's I mean, it's just too cold out there for me. You know, I understand why people love it. Every time I'm out there, it is as beautiful as it can be. But I'm a shorts t-shirt kind of guy, right, you know, 365 days a year. I love it. I love it. So listen, I thought what we could do today is, you know, we just had the Fed raise their rates. Yeah. And it was the 39th time that they have raised rates over the last 25 years. As you know, one of the tools, Tom, that I use, I share with subscribers. I'll do it during the Traders Ed show each day from 11 to 12 when when when when when it's important to. But I take a look at these seasonal charts. The folks at Season X provide me access into their system. Well, one of the cool things that they developed, they just released this late last week is they they have a if you look on the screen here, folks, you'll see right next to the word seasonality, it says Fed rate hikes. And so they put in all these different events, even like the Super Bowl, you know, I could take a look at with the AFC wins, what's going to happen. But let's stay on this. Let's stay focused on this chart. So this chart here is the S&P 500. It represents how the S&P 500 has reacted during those 39 times that rates have been raised over the last 25 years. And the red line represents the day of the rate raise, which typically sees a high in the S&P 500. And then what we have is typically a three to five day move lower out there. And that's important to pay attention to the three to five day move lower. And this is just looking at the 10 days before and the 10 days after. So it's a new tool. I've just started using it, trying to find ways that subscribers night would be able to take advantage of this data. Here, this happens to be the chart for the S&P 500 for the most recent rates over the last, I guess this takes us back into March of 2022, out here in February of 2022. And so the blue arrows, they represent the day of the rate. And here we can see that five of eight times worked here most recently, again, with that three to five day move lower, just like you were pointing out time, which I think is a great find. You know, you're taking a look at the GDX, you're seeing this move higher. You're probably taking a look at gold, seeing it was pretty much flat this morning. And then you start taking a look at the individual equities. And you you found a little window out there. And like you said, for short term, well, this is maybe a little window for three to five days out here and helpful for those people that may be short the market. So here's that same chart for the S&P 500, along with the S&P on the very bottom panel out there. And what folks should notice is that the day after the rate raise, what the S&P 500, the cash index did was it generated a TD nine count top. So along and along with that pattern, that's one of the topping patterns or bottoming patterns, Tom, as you know, that I use and subscribers pay attention to, so it was nice that we were getting a topping signal at the same time that the seasonal pattern, so to speak, or the event pattern over the last 25 years, showed that the S&P 500 should move low for a couple of days. Well, if we take a look at this chart here, this is the chart for the S&P 500. And folks, you'll see these digits that are either in black or in red. What this chart here is doing and what this tool is doing, this is tracking consecutive closes. So whether it's higher closes are going to be the black digits, red digits are going to be the lower closes. And this is really a cool find. You know, over the last couple of years, as I've used this tool and I've used it in this way, because it helps us understand what the average typical daily movement is, either for a counter trend move higher or a counter trend move lower, retracement move lower. The blue arrows, this just takes us back into the mid part of December, late part of December here. So you'll see that I've got these arrows, Tom, and everybody listening in. You'll see I've got these arrows to the number of consecutive moves lower. So of the last four sessions, we've seen two and three bar move lower out there. Remember, we looked at the chart for the for the event of the Fed raising rates and it said that it was a three to five day move lower out there. So I think that comes into play here. Now, this green line is referred to as the oscillator and change line. If the S&P 500 can pull back, test that and reject it, close above it. It's kind of like a test of a swing point. Although it's not a test of a swing point. It's a test of a momentum indicator. In this case here, when it's green, it's very strong momentum to the upside. So the question is, can the S&P 500 maintain that? If price closes below that, and the figure that I've got here is 4088, then it's going to tell us that at least the move inside the S&P 500 right now has lost its momentum, which will be helpful to us. Now, this chart here represents eight of the most commonly indexed indices, US indices that we track. And tops are present, TD nine count tops, the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell and the NASDAQ composite, the Dow's got a rogment of indicator top, the socks, so I conductors have a solid D point and the stock exchange of wave number seven. Those are all topping patterns, folks. So we're going to find out whether or not this two or three day rule applies this time around and the ES mini is in the process of trying to form a new profile. So if folks subscribe to the newsletter, they'll find out what those profiles are, where price might fall to as well as, as you said, get a great education. And folks, it's very easy. Come over to our website at TFN and go into the newsletters. It's on the right hand side, the opening call. And Steve just said, it's amazing that the TD nine count can hit in the S&P. Like, what are the odds of that, man? Right? It's unbelievable. Steve, have a great one. Stay fun. We look forward to showing them out. You too. Bye bye now. Stay right there, folks. Come right back.