 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, happy Monday everybody. Good evening. Good evening. Hopefully everybody is doing well and welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com nightly update. Hope everybody is doing well, right? That's the name of the game. If you are brand new to the channel, kindly take a second. It'll only take you a second if you like the contest content. Just click a like, share, subscribe, come aboard if you like what we are doing on a daily basis with unbiased technical analysis. Let's get into today's session. If you guys remember on Friday, SMCI finally had a pretty big reversal, right? Again, I never like to use the word blow off top because we don't know if that's the top. It's a very loosely expression that people kind of years ago started running with. I don't want to use that in this conversation, but all in all, gravity finally did come into play. SMCI had a pretty aggressive reversal, 200 points or so. The question was going into today's session, if you watched the weekend video, well, is this going to be a copycat day? We talked about Nvidia arm holdings. Were they able to sustain their own footing or were they going to copycat SMCI? I think Coin we discussed as well. We got our answer very, very quickly. If you traded this morning, this was one of the more aggressive opens I could remember. At one point, it looked like forced liquidation. Look at SMCI from the open. This was pretty disgusting, right? SMCI this morning was up like 25, 30 points. Next thing you know, it took out the previous day's channel. We'll get the pivots in a second. The thing went down another 100 points. It was a pretty, just a really, really aggressive move. Had an incredible fight back. Again, the overall market, you saw that with the overall temp on the cues. We'll talk about the ramifications here in a second. You had this really, really aggressive swan dive in SMCI. Coinbase that we included on the video as well. We talked about, hey, well, what happens if it loses the earnings low? Well, we got that. We got an answer very, very quickly. Lost the earnings low and this thing got hit as well. Things were playing out very aggressively. Bids were scattered. It looked like, you know, the earth was about to fall off on its axis and it looked very, very bad. And then we got into the area of last week's support on the cues of 425. If you've been watching the broadcast, we talked about, hey, 425 is on a major level there. Any close below 425 can really change the narrative and break this whole formation that the Nasdaq has been seeing for a very, very long time. And it did that as well, right? It did that as well. The cues lost at 425 level. It got down to the linear regression line, which I'm not really surprised that it bounced. But the surprising part is how aggressive the sell-off was in the morning and the equally surprising part after that sell-off, how these stocks actually started firming up, including NVIDIA, who reports tomorrow after the close. And the cues, just like we've been seeing now since 2023, no matter how bad things were getting towards the middle of the day, the bulls found a way to give back, to kind of reclaim back the 20-day moving average and close $2.5 above support, which is obviously a big deal. After the close, you had a couple of earnings come out through a little bit of a curveball into potentially what could happen tomorrow. You have PanW came out with earnings and they are getting hit. Yeah, that's a pretty, pretty ugly candle. And then you have TDOC, one of the high-flying darlings of the whole stay-at-home movement during COVID getting hit as well. And after the close, as much as these stocks really rallied back, right? I mean, SMCI, the low of SMCI today was $6.92, right? This thing closed nearly 100 points off their lows, putting in a nice hammer, and they're down another 15 points after hours. NVIDIA is down another, you know, another what? Let's see, they closed at 94, it's down about 10 after hours as well. So as the old saying goes, may you live in interesting times, and that's exactly what we're doing. We are seeing a lot of softness, a lot of strength at the same time, a lot of volatility, and I've been saying this for years. New traders can, they really confuse the difference between volatility and average true range. Tesla has average true range. A stock like SMCI has a lot of volatility. Anytime a stock could put up a 100-point range or 150-point range in a day, it sounds great on paper, but the last thing you want to do, and you'll see this and you realize this as you get older in this business, if you don't know your levels, the last thing you want to do is to be in something volatile. It's like being in the middle of a hurricane. You know, things could go left very, very quickly in the middle of a hurricane. If you know your levels, it's a whole different story again. We'll get to the pimpets in a second. So going into tomorrow, it's going to be very, very interesting to see, can these semiconductors, right? They're pretty much getting beat up here after the close again, after demonstrating an incredible resilience coming back, you know, coming back really, really well towards the end of the day. Can they shake off this weakness and start reclaiming today's channels in a weird way? I don't want to use the word dead cat bounce. Well, listen, after a couple of days of really aggressive selling, well, can we use the word dead cat bounce, or is this just simply a continuation from the strength that we've been seeing? Let's go with option two, right? Let's go with option two. The big thing for tomorrow, you got FOMC minutes tomorrow, which is really, really a waste of time. If anybody not know what they're going to say, they literally told us what their objective is, released their plan or semi-plan a week ago. So the idea that they're releasing more minutes is absolutely ridiculous. Obviously, tomorrow, the big, you know, the big kahuna, right, is going to be Nvidia coming out with their quarterly earnings. The options market is absolutely juiced, and everybody, and I'm waiting for the first person to say, watch the market makers screw everybody and open it flat. I promise you, and the video will not be flat tomorrow, right? I give you my word, and the video will not be flat tomorrow after earnings. Watch, it's going to be flat tomorrow after earnings. They are pricing in roughly 11, 12% move, which is honestly, you know, which is honestly crazy. It's talking about what, another 70 points to the upside. So we're talking about what, 775, 760 to the upside, roughly 600 to the downside. We saw some crazy bets coming in today. Some buyers were coming in today for the May 900 calls with size. So I mean, I don't know, look, nobody knows what's going to happen on earnings. Again, the question is, is the stock priced in for this magnificent run that it already had in the last couple of months, or is this the thing going to completely moonshot, right? Completely go nuts again tomorrow. We'll see. You know, we'll see tomorrow after the close. Your guess is as good as mine, and that's what earnings are. It's guessing. Again, you can have, you can have, you know, the earnings right in your hand to report, and you bet in that direction. And you know what? You still don't know how the market is going to react because of the major run-up that we saw in the last two months. This will be very, very interesting going into tomorrow. The problem with tomorrow's session, okay, the fact that we had such a big sell-off in so many stocks, the fact that we had such a big recovery in so many stocks, they left stocks in the middle of the range. And I put this on the nightly email that we're going to have to be very, very patient tomorrow because when a stock is $5 from the highs and $5 from the lows, you know, you're basically getting a quarter throwing up in the air and trying to figure out if it's going to be heads or tails. So we're going to need to be a little bit more patient tomorrow, probably in the first hour. I'm being a little bit maybe more conservative in my thinking, but we want to at least see that first candle get confirmed, whether it's up or down. Because again, when you have stocks in the middle of the ranges, there's no edge there. There really is no edge. So for example, like look at Metta, right? Look at Metta's chart. Metta today, nice little pivot on Metta today, but Metta today is literally what? It's literally $5, right? It's $5 from the highs and $5 from the lows. You get my point? There's a lot of names that's not here or there. Apple that held the bottom of the range here, again, is roughly $2 from the highs, roughly $2 from the lows, about $1.50 from the highs. Amazon, you know, Amazon again, held the bottom range really, really nicely, but we have now a definitive line in the sand for Amazon going into tomorrow. A little name that looks interesting is this, I forgot the symbol. I put it on the list. I totally forgot about it. It's called, oh, look at this little symbol. For all you guys that trade smaller names, look at stock fat, right? So this stock fat, P-H-A-T, had a big, big run a couple of days ago, inside day today, got rejected off, got rejected off the 200-day SMA. For all you guys that trade smaller names, keep an eye on this thing. If it starts reclaiming back the 200-day moving average, this thing could be interesting here. SMCI, after going down basically about 300 points in 12 hours, put in a big, big hammer. Now again, it's down roughly around, now it's down about 20 after the close, but, you know, 20, this all goes down 100 this morning. So let's watch the semiconductors, just in case they start to rally ahead of Nvidia's earnings, because if it could actually reclaim back today's upper channel, why can't this thing go up on, you know, go on a 40, 50, 60 point run? Same thing with ARM, right? Same thing with ARM. ARM had a big move down today. Again, we'll get to the pivots in a second. Held the 10-day moving average, but again, it's, you know, within what, $6 of the lows and $3 of the highs. So tomorrow we have to be a little bit more patient, but again, every trader is looking exactly at the same data point. Nobody has a different market in front of them. Sometimes guys, you have to take one step back to get the bigger picture so you could take three steps forward. So let's talk about today's pivots. Again, very, very aggressive session today. Stocks has got just murdered, you know, murdered, murdered at the open. All those names that we were talking about on the weekend video prefer potential copycat plays. Coin, coin, ARM, you know, Microsoft got hit today. Really, you know, big, big moves down. So here's the first one here. Microsoft 40339, if it builds below, can flush. So here is Microsoft putting the opening range low, 403. At some point it got all the way down to 398 today, but a big, big move on Microsoft. Google held, SMCI was obviously, again, I know a handful of you guys traded MCI. I just refuse to trade this thing. It's just, I would rather trade anything else. It's just, I have nothing against it. I know there's really, really big, big fortunes made on this thing, but again, when the stock trades with a $2 spread with 100 share lots, I can close my eyes and press a market order. Again, just not for me, but hey, you know, 801, if it builds below, can flush. The high today was 802. So it flushed right from the open, lost literally 100 points. Congratulations to all you guys who traded it. Coin got hit again today. 7880, if it builds below, can flush. Here is coin. Again, we talked about coin in the weekend update. It lost the 7880, went all the way down to 163. Huge, huge move on coin. All you guys have caught that as well. Arm got just murdered. Arm 123 held twice if it builds below, can flush. Arm lost the 123, went all the way down to 15, right to the 10 day and then bounced. Meta was pretty good today. Meta was a couple of points on Meta. 469 held twice if it builds below, can flush. It literally, I believe we, we made our second to last cover. The rest was break even within 20 cents of the loss today. That's the whole point of understanding your supply zones, really, really good move on Meta. I had a couple of bounces today on the video. Didn't work out. The first one, I bounced the washout, went up like a dollar and change. I took a little off and instantly got stopped out. The second bounce was exactly the same thing. I caught the bounce. It went up a dollar and change. I didn't have a chance to even make any sales. Came in, stopped out, you know, 50, 60 cents, like a couple of times doing that. But overall, the day worked out pretty well. Nice move this morning on the queues below that 25 as well. So all in all, I'm content with the day. I missed a bunch of things, but you know what? It's just impossible to get everything. Tomorrow, again, we have FOMC minutes. We have NVIDIA. I'm going to be very curious to see if the semiconductors can shake off this after hour selling and start reclaiming back today's highs. Because if they do, we could get a dead cat bounce. Again, could. We don't know if we will. But we could get a dead cat bounce ahead of NVIDIA's earnings. And other than that, guys, you got to stay a little patient. We do have a lot of stocks in the middle of the ranges, which again, you have to let the market sometimes play itself out. Do the heavy lifting for us so we can make very, very good and logical decisions. Guys, have a great night, everybody. God bless, and I will see you on tomorrow night's video. Take care.