 Okay, this is Think Tech. I'm Jay Fiedel. It's a given Wednesday afternoon. We have our chief scientist show. It's Mike DeWert. And we're talking about technology. Think Tech Tech talks. Hi, Mike. Welcome to the show. Aloha, Jay. Good to be here. Thank you for having me on. Well, it's nice to have you here because we have some work to do. We have to try to figure out what to tell the people about the factors of expansion of the virus. That's what it's all about. We need to know where this is all going and we have to get a good handle on it. And frankly, I don't think we're getting much of a handle from our leadership. So we need you to help us understand what kind of algorithms we should use and what kind of numbers they produce in terms of what's going to happen with the spread of this virus. So tell me what you have been doing to identify the algorithms and the numbers. Well, I've done medical research, but I'm not epidemiologist. Let me preface it that I'm not a professional epidemiologist. But last February, end of February, I started to get concerned when I saw the cases in China and how they were doubling every four days and how it had started to spread to the rest of the world. So I numbers. China had started to get a handle on their epidemic, but I assume that the rest of the world wouldn't get a handle on it. And so if you bring up slide two in my presentation, you'll see what I predicted back in February. So in February 26, which is where this orange vertical line is, I made a prediction, which is this curve, this gray curve you see. The little orange dots on the curve are data so far from the website healthmaps.org COVID-19, which is pretty up to date. Several times a day, there are consortium of several universities and hospitals, international, trying to keep us abreast of the best information. And scarily to me, my predictions in February, that the rest of the world would do nothing effective. And the cases start to double every four days and the rest of the world are true, which means that every two weeks, this is going to get 10 times worse. So if we have 100 cases in Hawaii today, we'll have 100 times as many and 10 times in two weeks. And if you have a one in 10,000 chance today of meeting somebody with a virus, you have a one in 1,000 chance in two weeks and a one in 100 chance two weeks after that. One in 10 chance after that, it just gets really bad. So what factors do you build in, what factors, sorry, you're finished and I'll ask you my question. No, no, go ahead, go ahead, Jake. What do you build in, like for example, the benefit of containment, the benefit of social distancing, you build in masks and gowns and gloves, do you build in all these things people want to try to ameliorate to you at the odds? Well, so what we have is a naive population, immunologically naive, that has never been exposed as a virus before. So everyone is susceptible. Everyone pretty much is susceptible all over the world, no matter what your race and ethnicity whatever is. There's nobody who, there's no herd immunity. There's, we've never been exposed to this before, we don't have a vaccine for it. So all you can do is slow it down. The ultimate number of victims is going to be what it is, which is probably Germany is estimated 60 to 70% of the population. I went conservative and estimated 100% will be exposed and actually catch the virus. If we go to, I did do some predictions for Hawaii, if we go to slide three, I think it is. Oh, yeah, this is my source for the data for Hawaii in the United States. I did a Bain search and Bain will give you the provenance of their data at the bottom. So, but the first thing that shows up there is how many cases in Hawaii, how many cases the United States, how many cases worldwide. This is pretty consistent worldwide with what HealthMaps.org gives. And I just take a snapshot at nine o'clock every day to, you know, just see how it's going. Then on the fourth slide, I put up the numbers, what I expect for Hawaii. So the gray curve is the world. The yellow curve is the United States. It's the same scale as the world, but Hawaii is on the right scale. We have a little over a million people, 1.3, 1.4 million or so. And that black curve shows what I expect for Hawaii. To the left is cases to date. So to the left of the blue curve is the cases to date. The United States and Hawaii are both increasing faster than the world average. The Dublin's in the United States like every three days, which is intolerable. I mean, we're going to hit a crisis in a few weeks that way. I'm assuming that both Hawaii and the United States will slow down to doubling every four days like the rest of the world. And that's not good enough. So if we go to the slide after that, let's see. Oh yeah. So and the reason that it's not good enough, even if it's slowed down every four days, in about a month, we're going to have 11,000 cases in Hawaii according to this projection. And we only have like 550 ventilators in the whole state. So 5% of the people who get sick need to be on ventilators. We are out of ventilators in a month. That's when the real difficulty will be with the healthcare system. You'll be denying care to a lot of other people because the hospital will be full of very, very sick COVID-19 patients. So what can we do to flatten the curve? Well, I'll show you what's flattening the curve of me. Let's go to the next slide after that one. Oh, I'm sorry. Here's my, I already mentioned these numbers, but we have, like I say, today we have one in 10,000 viruses. We'll have the virus in Hawaii. A random guy last time said at the grocery store said, why is everybody worried? Yeah, okay, whenever they want to 10,000 has to be an exposed. Sure, you're not worried. But in two weeks, it's one in a thousand. By end of April, we're going to be a thousand people dead of the virus and, you know, close to a hundred thousand people infected. And we're going to say, well, why the heck didn't we do anything? And so we'll see what you can do. The slide after that shows what we might be able to do. So the red curve is what they call the curve on new cases versus time. They talk about flattening the curve that's what they're talking about. The red curve is just the slope of the cumulative data I showed earlier. And that curve is showing if we don't get a handle on slowing this for doubling every four days, a case down, we're going to hit almost 60,000 new cases a day per day in Hawaii by the end of May. It'll fall after that just because the virus went out of victims. But we simply can't handle 60,000 sick people a day in Hawaii. We can't even handle 1000 new cases a day with a situation now. If we slow it down to every eight days, we delay the peak until July. So we buy ourselves six weeks or so to come up with an effective treatment so we don't overwhelm the healthcare system. If we can slow the rate of doubling down to every 12 days, we buy ourselves until early September probably. We're still not talking enough time for a vaccine. So on the next slide I'll summarize the situation. We can buy ourselves some time. Vaccine won't be ready in time for this epidemic. It takes at least a year, maybe a year and a half to be sure it's safe, effective, and can be produced. I've heard people blithely speak of herd immunity, but for herd immunity to be effective, you have to have a vaccine or you have to have everybody already caught the disease. Most people have to have the disease or been exposed to it and overcome it for there to be any herd immunity. So when you hear people talk about herd immunity, they'll save us. No, they won't. We can hope for better treatments and there's a lot of people working on better treatments that can soften the impact of the disease. So you don't have to put sick people on ventilators so that you can keep them home reduce the rate of which they expose other people. That's what we have to hope for. It still will take weeks to months to validate that those are safe. I used to take quinine for leg cramps. FDA, that was 30 years ago, FDA said don't do that because the side effects are worse than the disease. So there's a problem. If you really want to stop the spread of the disease, you have to medicate everybody who has it and that medication has to be safe. You know, quinine can cause liver damage, kidney damage, eye damage, hearing loss. The list of side effects goes on in therapeutic doses. So we do need better treatments. We've got to give the healthcare people time. And the only way to do that is for us to pretty much slow the transmission from person to person by staying home. Wash your hands. Don't touch your face. All the standard advice. But that will buy us time. It probably will not reduce the ultimate number of cases. It will delay the maximum number of cases people are infected, maybe enough to the healthcare system to allow us to treat everybody who gets sick. But that's, we just got to have the self discipline and the compassion for each other to stay home and reduce the transmission rate. And the economy is going to have enough strength somehow to allow us all to stay home. But let me go back a little bit. Used to be. So these charts are fairly alarming. Yeah. That's why you're not sitting there. Yeah. Sorry. And what's interesting was what you just said is that you can flatten the curve, but at the end of the day, you're still going to have the same number of cases, unless there can be, you know, a vaccine before you make this analysis. The same number of cases and the same number of deaths, whether you have a sharp uptake or flatten the curve, is that right? There will be fewer deaths because you'll lower the rate at which the cases come into the healthcare system. That gives the doctors a better chance to, in their triage, to save some people that wouldn't have been able to save otherwise. And the other thing is if you overwhelm the healthcare system, you end up reducing transplant patients. You end up reducing cardiac patients care. You end up reducing care for all kinds of other diseases, infectious diseases, as well as kidney failure from diabetes. You'll get even more deaths if you don't slow this down, because we'll overwhelm the healthcare system with COVID-19 cases and everyone else will be denied care and the carnage will be. Right now, if it was just COVID-19, we'd face a doubling of our death rate for a year. With COVID-19 plus the overwhelming healthcare system, we could triple the death rate. You can blithely say if it was war, we would accept those casualties. This isn't a war. We're a civilian population. We can't ask everybody, granny, grandpa, the people with asthma, to take those casualties. It'll be the most vulnerable people to take most of the casualties. So we've just got to slow this down, give the healthcare system a chance to save the sickest people and to be able to treat everyone who has other things besides COVID-19. Okay, many questions. Let me go back to the doubling effect. So you made a survey using Bing and then you had some statement of authority on the charts you used. And that's different from what we've heard. I mean, or at least what some people have heard. I have heard these numbers before. But how authoritative is this? Fundamentally, how do you make this calculation of doubling? Right. You look at the cases. I looked at the cases in China before they implemented their controls. Their reported cases doubled every four days. That's cumulative cases. Not people who are necessarily in new cases. But that's an exponential growth. And I'll talk about how it's a logistic function, an exponential function, but there's no logistic function, exponential function is insignificant to about one third of that risk population is infected. And the ultimate authority are the data. Go look at chart two again, and you'll see how the data are tracking the prediction. So those little orange boxes, that's the data from February 20, well, for the epidemic so far worldwide. I made this prediction the gray curve on February 26 and the data are sadly tracking it for a month. The data are tracking it an hour on it. The orange boxes are the orange boxes was your prediction. And then the line right next to you the gray line was my prediction. The orange boxes are real data. Okay, got it. Got it. So here we are. And if the if the orange boxes keep on following your prediction, will be at a million, a million cases worldwide by what can we see that one more time? By by June 6. No, we'll have a million cases by by by first of April. It's going to double. So it's right now worldwide. We're at something like almost over half a million cases if it doubles again, we'll be there. So in four days, we're going to be there at a million cases worldwide. Now a million out of seven half billion is saying, man, it's only less than 10000. But the point is, we'll keep doubling, especially in the vulnerable populations in India, the refugee populations in Syria, all the displaced people from Argent from Venezuela, and some of the other places we have for refugees. And then those cases, if you don't protect everybody, if you don't try to give everybody health care, nobody's safe from this, because this virus will spread in the vulnerable populations and inevitably jump to the less vulnerable populations. So. So going back to that chart again. So if I went further to see what the numbers were, say at the end of the timeline, which is June, June 6. What, what does that actually work out to? That's the world population. Yeah, I made a very, very pessimistic assumption that China's controls would see us to be effective once they start getting reinfected from outside China. It's not everybody. Oh, sorry. I misread it. That's a billion, more than a billion. Yeah, that chart tops out of seven and a half billion people sometime in June. That's assuming everybody is susceptible and the controls in China see us to be effective. And of course, the United States is poised to become the biggest caseload in the world. You know, sometime in the next few days, we're going to overtake Italy. But then once India. Because we have a fragmented, disjointed healthcare system that has not been able to do contact tracing and really quarantine people who have been exposed to the virus. What I just, from my understanding, what's been successful in Korea and Taiwan and Singapore is that really diligent contact tracing. Somebody comes down to the disease because diagnosed with a disease, they have volunteers who will go out, unemployed volunteers, because they've locked down their economies, who will go out and do the contact tracing and make sure those contacts get tested and then quarantined as needed. And that really slows it down. The governor of New York has already said he can't do contact tracing. There's just not, there's too many cases already. They don't have the resources. And we have a chance in Hawaii to do that. We've got to jump on it. We've got to really start testing as much as we can, not just the really sick people. The people who have been exposed that you can slow this transmission curve. I don't want to be right. I don't want to be right that we're going to have billions of cases of this disease in six weeks. Because if we do, if we think the world economy is hurting now, it's, it'll be really, it'll be a depression. It'll be really much, much worse if we let this happen. We can take a hit for a while. But we got to, we got to give the doctors time to get treatments, you know, effective treatments out there, safe and found treatments. Great concern for Hawaii because it falls right. Can we see the numbers on Hawaii one more time? Which chart was that? Yeah, four. Yeah. So the black curve is my prediction for Hawaii. So to the left of the blue line, the vertical dotted blue line, all that is real data, the real data. And Hawaii has been doubling every three days. I don't think that will continue. I think that our quarantine and measures are shut state down measures will be pretty effective. But I'm only assuming it's going to slow it down to once every doubling every four days. I have very little confidence that the U.S. as a whole will slow down, but it might slow down to once every, but even if we slow down to once every four days, like the rest of the world, we're, we're, we expose everybody in Hawaii by middle of May. And we're facing a catastrophe. So we have to hope we can slow it down to way slow it down. Like every eight days might not be enough because only gives us till July or so. And the problem with slowing it down, so when you slow the exponential growth rate down, it seems like nothing much is happening. People get complacent because there aren't very many cases, but that exponential inevitably starts to build cases and then you're back in a crisis. We have to stay vigilant even if we do slow down to the caseload because unless we do that, we run the risk of having the exponential take a hold again. So even if we slow it down to every eight days doubling, we're still facing 30 or 40,000 cases a day in July. And if we slow it down to every 12 days, we're still looking at 20,000 cases a day in September. It'll be nothing in May, apparently, be very low, but it will, you know, the math just leads to the inevitable conclusion that it's going to get very, very bad eventually. That's in Hawaii. That's pretty scary. Yeah, it's sobering. It's sobering to actually be able to do math and see the consequences of an action. And then even the consequences of action are scary. Even if we can slow this down, we're still looking at scary caseloads and we're hoping that we're buying time for the medical community, the research community to come up with, like I said, safe and effective treatments. I don't think we'll buy enough time for a vaccine. Well, going back to the notion of testing, that's been in some discussion between David Ike and Bruce Anderson, director of health and also Josh Green about how important that is. But by itself, what do you do with testing? Everybody says, in order to figure out what to do, you have to know where you are. You have to know how many people have it. How does that work on a mathematical basis? Well, testing alone will do a lot. You've got to have testing coupled with effective treatment and contact tracing. I mean, of course, China is an authoritarian state, but in democracies like Korea and Singapore, Korea and Taiwan, they've been able to actually have volunteers go through and do the contact tracing. So if you have too many tests positive for disease, you ask them to self-quarantine and then you find their contacts and get them to self-quarantine. And you have to have policies in place where people aren't going to be, medical bills aren't going to kill them if they get a diagnosis of this disease. They have to be not afraid to get tested because right now, of course, you can refuse any treatment. You are allowed to refuse any medical treatment, including the medical test. People have to not be afraid to be tested. They're not afraid that the financial ruin from their medical bills are testing. This stimulus bill, this rescue bill, the Congress and Senate are going to actually finally get done will help with that. But here in Hawaii, we actually have to somehow have boots on the ground, volunteers or wherever to help people make sure, A, if they get tested, that you can trace their contacts and inform everybody they've been in contact with that they need to get tested. Then you've got to really convince people to self-quarantine when that test proves positive. And that's so testing alone is not enough. You've got your testing plus contact tracing plus self-quarantine. And then we have a chance of slowing this down. And I've been impressed with Josh Green's statements on this to this effect. So let's talk about the average Joe. Let's talk about me. Okay. I've been good in following the rules for the most part. And you too, you're on the show by remote. So am I. And so I think, well, maybe if I do the right things, this is, I hate this question and I know I'm going to hate your answer. If I do the right things, I won't get it. And I'm not sure why I feel that way. I just feel that if you follow the rules, then you should escape the problem. Is it true what I've said? Can I engineer this personally? So I simply don't get it? You could greatly reduce the probability you'll get it soon. It's like, I'm sorry, I don't want to give you false hope. It's like seasonal cold, you know, everybody gets a cold in the winter. And you expect to get a cold in the winter for most people, it's nothing. This disease is, you know, orders magnitude more serious than a cold, but it's not Ebola. You have a 1% chance of dying if you get it. And that's if you're vulnerable. And so what you want to do is you want to reduce your chances to get in it, so that you have as long as possible before you are likely to get it. And then you have a better chance that there will be an effective treatment or that the hospitals won't be overwhelmed and you do need to go. And you're buying yourself time to have access to the effective treatments. I can say I expect I'll get cold this winter. Now I expect I'll eventually get COVID-19. I wash my hands, try not to touch my face. That's the hard part, not touching your face. I don't have to work at home because I'm in the defense industry and I'm allowed to go to work, but we are working from home. Every one of us who can work from home is working from home because it's important to slow this down enough. So and we got to slow it down a lot. You said they're 1% fatality, but if you're vulnerable, but isn't it that if you are vulnerable out of the sample, it's more than 1%. In other words, we can immune compromise. It's like 15% or so. Yeah, that's right. Then it's less than 1% if you're in your 20s, but you're still not immune from dying even if you're in your 20s. So on average, it looks like around 1% on average. It could be, you know, some report says highest 3%. I don't think that's true. I think the cases have been underreported. And we're seeing that report now that it looks like the on average for the whole population, it's around 1%, which still makes it way worse than the seasonal flu and even worse than the H1N1 swine flu that was in the 2008, maybe on a par with the 1918 flu epidemic that killed so many people, killed more people than World War I did. Let's talk about self-help and see if that fits in the picture and improve the odds, which are really dreadful. So I mean, there's no masks around. It's hard to get them. There's no tests around. Hard to get them. I suppose in fluid tests, you want to watch yourself very carefully. You want to watch for the telltale symptoms and that's about what you can do with that. On masks, we have a show later today about a guy who's making masks on the big island. That's good. He's fabricating masks. It's the best he can and he's creative and he has this kind of manufacturing mentality about it. I suppose anybody can do that. But they say that the masks help the other guy. They don't necessarily help you, the fellow who's wearing a mask. Is it still worthwhile, you know, finding a mask, making a mask? Well, so I've considered making my own mask. I can't sew with the darn, but I'm thinking about turning my t-shirt double them up and making bandanas out of them. The value of the mask is it promotes awareness. It may slow transmission. If you have to be infected, it may slow transmission to other people. And you may not know you're infected because you may not, you may be early stages, not showing symptoms yet. But it also promotes awareness. And it's harder to touch your face and infect yourself if you're wearing a mask. You say, oh, I can't touch my face. And your mask reminds you of that. So you don't want to rub your eyes because your eyes drain to your nose and then it goes down your throat and you're getting in your lungs. So you certainly want to, you can help yourself by taking a precautions. The mask is helpful from psychological as well as some physical points of view at preventing transmission. And like I say, if I could make masks, I've already made a few. What about the ventilator thing? A lot of people don't try to weather this at home because they may not have the opportunity to go to a hospital. One reason or another and maybe the old adventure field or whatever it is. And so there are a lot of people going to try to tuck it through, tuck it through with, you know, and take a lot of cold medicine, symptomatic relief. And the breathing thing is of some concern. So suppose you had a ventilator machine or respirator machine, but say a CPAP machine that helps you breathe. Would that help you, you know, breathe and not? I hadn't thought about CPAP machines, although they're probably going to be a short supply too. They could help. I mean it won't provide oxygen, but it will provide some positive airway pressure to help you keep your lungs inflated. And the ventilators provide oxygen too. And they're having to run them pretty close to maximum oxygen and maximum pressure to save some of the people who need them. But if you can reduce that with CPAP machines, maybe I'd like to see some data on that. I'm doing breathing exercises because I have a paralyzed level of cord. I'm more susceptible to pneumonia than some people are, than most people are. So I'm trying to do my breathing exercises to keep my lungs clear. The important thing is to keep it from running down your throat and getting into your lungs. Because if it's confined to your nose and mouth, and you've seen instructions on the internet like use an antiseptic mouthwash, you know, don't use a netty pot because that'll force it deeper into your tissues. There's some instructional videos about lung exercises. They'll be keep your lungs clear. You can do those kinds of self-help and they will, they may help some, you know, you want to make sure the virus, if it's confined to your nose and mouth, it's not probably going to be a big deal. Even you may have a fever, but it won't get into your lungs. Once it gets into your lungs, that's where the problems start. It's like, how does that work? Your lungs are so damaged, you can't breathe anymore. And then fluid builds up and you wind up suffocating. That's what happens. Yeah, your immune system sort of works for you and against you there. Your immune system responds to an infection by sending these neutrophils in, and other immune cells too. But the neutrophils make a protein, an elastase protein, an enzyme, an elastase enzyme. What that enzyme does is it cuts the chemical bonds that the proteins of bacteria and viruses use to latch on to your cells. So the neutrophil elastase tries to protect you from the infection. The problem is in your lungs, the neutrophil elastase also cuts the bonds that hold your lung cells together. So now your lung cells are being pulled apart by the very defense mechanism your body was trying to use to protect you from the infection. And so now your liver makes an enzyme called a neutrophil that counters the neutrophil elastase, alpha one antitrypsin and some other. So that antitrypsin counteracts the effects in your lung cells of the elastase. Not everybody makes the same amount. So some people, and we don't necessarily know who would advance, are more susceptible to damage from their own immune system than others. And so I'm not sure the epidemiology here, how that's working with this particular virus, but then you end up with lung scarring, then you end with COPD, inflicted on you by as much by your own immune system as by the virus. So some people are just more vulnerable. And that's a lifelong problem. If you're walking out of it with COPD, that's going to shorten you. Yeah, yeah. Permanent. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, go ahead. No, I'm agreeing with you. I'm agreeing with you. Okay. Well, it's complicated. Everybody has to make his own thing on this in terms of dealing with those factors, delaying the onset, if you will. And if necessary, you have taken the right steps. So one question I had, you talk about, everybody talks about, don't touch your face. If I, you know, it's hard not to touch your face in the ordinary course. And so, and let's assume you have, yeah, virus particles on your hand, and you touch your cheek doing it. I'm just pointing my cheek. My cheek is not an entry way to the eye or the mouth or the nose. I don't know if the ear counts the same way. Maybe the ear also leads to the sinus. I don't know if that's, but if I touch my cheek, these little buggies, do they have the opportunity to actually crawl up my cheek or crawl down my cheek and get into a more vulnerable spot? Or is that really a not concern? Yeah. Well, if you finally contaminate all your face and then you lick your lips, yeah, you might then end up. So the point is, the really keep it, keep getting your nose, keep getting your eyes, keep getting your mouth. Now, I'm not an expert on this virus. I don't know how, if it can actually crawl through, but if it's on, once it's on your face, there's a better chance it'll get into your mouth or into your nose or into your eyes. So really, don't pick your nose. Don't bite your nails. Don't rub your eyes. Keep your hands away from all those vulnerable spots that have mucus membranes that, you know, then would connect to the rest of your internal mucus membranes. How about washing your face? Wash your hands. Why not wash your face? Sure. Why not wash your face? Well, yeah. I mean, it seems the soap will kill the virus. The evidence is that this COVID-19 virus falls apart when it's exposed to soap or detergent. So that's a good strategy. Wash your hands, then wash your face. And you've got to be an expert on your own body, your own health. You've got to really understand if you have had pneumonia in the past, know you're susceptible to pneumonia, get to be extra vigilant. If you are intimate with somebody, you live with somebody who is susceptible to pneumonia from your past experience and be extra vigilant. You really got to understand your own body as much as you can, and then take the precautions. Like I say, wash your hands, then wash your face. Like I have to put eye drops, think of that cataract surgeon, put eye drops in four times a day. Wash my hands thoroughly, then put in the eye drops. So yeah. Well, it's interesting because, you know, the community around us is under great stress. The economy obviously is under great stress, but I think what I hear from, you know, if you want to save yourself, you have to pay attention to your own health first. And that's what really holds in terms of survival. Yeah. The health of you and the people you live with, you've got to pay attention to both of that. Because if your spouse or kids... That's a very complicated issue. There was an article in The Times, I think, was it yesterday about somebody who was taking care of her husband, who was in the same house or apartment, and they had to divide the place up geographically, so she didn't run across him too much. And the idea was that she should avoid being infected by him, but at the same time, the practicality, they had to live together for his benefit to stay alive. And the whole thing sounded very convoluted, like it was care, laying care is always a burden. It was care at an exponential level, 24 by 7, to make sure that he's taking care of and you don't catch it. It's hard to do. Yeah. And there's a lot of people in the caregiver position. There's already people in the caregiver position because their loved ones have Alzheimer's or kidney disease or something chronic, heart disease, something that keeps them from doing things for themselves. And it's just will amplify those numbers of cases. And we'll see more divorces because of it. I mean, if you dress on the marriage, if you have to stay apart for extended period of time, or if you want care from your spouse, and if you see them because they're afraid to get the disease, then that's a big stressor. And there have been cases like that. Hopefully, the disease now isn't going to lead to a lot of that, but it will lead to some of it. Yeah. So people, yeah, you have to be aware of what's going on with your loved ones because you don't want to add more stress to the relationships than you have to. I just have to face the reality of it. And we have to learn about it. The way I see it is ThinkTech has had more than 50 shows on the subject of one aspect or another. Yours is a great contribution. I hope we can come back and talk to you some more as the line goes up the hill that way. Well, I'm going to keep tracking the whole thing. I'm going to keep putting those little boxes on the chart and I hope to see it start to bend over soon. I guess we don't have a year. We don't have months. We have six weeks to get this under control to give our health care providers a chance to save the rest of us. So we've got about six weeks. Easy to say, but some of the parts of control that we've talked about are simply not available to the health care system and the state. They're probably not going to, sorry to say, they're probably not going to come in six weeks. You think we'll be well out of it for extra beds or ventilators within six weeks? I doubt it. I think we'll be out of those. Yeah, I don't feel good about it. I try to stay health as long as I can. And I'm actually talking about, should I go out and try to get the disease now while they're still ventilators? I don't think that's a great idea. Why don't we leave it there? There's some dark humor in there. Mike, don't worry, our chief client is here to thank you. I don't think I understand where this scourge is taking us. Thank you so much. I wish I could bring better news. Thank you. Thank you.