 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another weekend update show of theaccessotrader.com. Well, weekend wrap-up show. Hope everybody is having a great weekend. So let's talk about it, right? Let's talk about the market action from last week. A few things were notable and one thing I really want to touch upon going into this week that's going to be incredibly important. Number one, understanding basic technical analysis. Again, that was kind of the theme for year and year and year. Again, markets come, markets go, but your foundation is always going to be your ability not only to read a chart properly without having to ask 30 people their opinions because charts are really not subjective. As much as you can have an opinion, a chart is really going to play out very, very specifically whether you like it or not. So for example, on Friday, again, the stock to its community is pretty funny, but one gentleman said there was a pivot on Tesla to the downside and I said, well, if it breaks this pivot, it's going to go lower. And this person says, well, it's not going to fall. Well, because why you don't want it to fall? Again, reality and your reality completely different. So the ability, the most basic minimalistic ability to read a chart is going to be very, very important. But also understand that every great market, and I don't care how many years you've traded, somebody will eventually run into a really great market. Obviously, the internet craze was the shining star. I've talked about it numerous times and for all you guys who are lucky enough to trade that during that period of time, you kind of know the gist of it. This market that we've been seeing now for the last several years has been untouchable. The closest thing I've seen to the internet craze, and it took me a long time to really acknowledge that, but when you see retail money really coming in very, very aggressively. Again, I don't want to use the Robinhood platform as the point of retail money, but again, it's very, very hard not to. But when you see retail money flow incredibly getting aggressive, no matter what the news is on the table, no matter what the global ramifications. Again, think about what we've gone through just in the last first six months of the year. We've seen a global pandemic. We've seen pretty much a halt in the economy. Most of us were literally on house arrest for what, three, four, five months. So we've seen incredible unemployment. We've seen anything that could possibly riots, anything possible that could go wrong in 2020 in a year from kind of the mainstream point of view. We've seen it, but yet the market continued to really get aggressive. But unfortunately, and this is just the reality. I'm not trying to be Debbie Downer. I'm not trying to put rain on anybody's parade, especially on a beautiful, beautiful Sunday summer morning. With every rally eventually, no matter if there's a global materialistic issue that's going to finally punch it in the head or just gravity, it's going to end. It's just the reality. If you go back in history, the greatest rallies we've had ended. It's just reality. And then at some point it starts up again. The most amazing part of this rally is, I think the most opinionated rally this market is because it's been hated so much. And I think a lot of the fund managers really created this hate and really created this fuel back to the upside because they started shorting the market very, very early, quote, unquote, on the dead cat bounce. Because logically, it was the right thing to do, right? Think about this. The global pandemic and the world stops and the economy stops and everybody's 45 million plus unemployed, global cases of this incredible, horrific virus, people dying all over the place. It makes sense. It makes total sense. And at some point that fuel to the fire got amplified because the market wasn't going down. And next thing you know, you have this really, really aggressive run up, call it short covering, call it the speculation money order flow, call it even the Robin Hood. It doesn't make a difference what you call it. Again, you could put lipstick on a pig. It's still a pig. So the idea that this type of market was going to go on forever was a little bit naive. It's like me turning around in 2000, the middle of 2000 saying, wow, this is the greatest market ever, right? The global internet is growing. And this is going to be the greatest, greatest life ever that we could all live because this market's never going to go down. Yada, yada, yada. Internet craze only lasted for about 18 months. So the first order of business, when you're looking for any type of, let's just call it gravity, okay? I don't want to put more into it than it actually is. But any type of sign of gravity is a couple of things. Number one, the stocks that ran up, they stopped going up. And I know it sounds very, very simplistic, but think about it. You know, if Amazon has gone up over and over and over again on upgrades, on price target increases, and then Amazon, for example, the buyers get tired, the upgrades become very, very kind of almost like benign, okay? And the stock stops going up because of an upgrade. And then you see kind of an exhaustion chamber started forming. And next thing you know, you start having a rolling top. So that's a very clue. I'm just using Amazon as an example. You could use anything. You could use Apple. You could use any stock. I'm just using Amazon as an example. The second thing obviously, and I think this is as important as kind of reading market sentiment, is technical analysis, right? Technical analysis, the idea that technical damage is around the corner is very, very important. So for example, this past week, you know, we identified the blow off top, okay? We talked about this on for Tuesday into Wednesday session. We identified that. We identified the rollover. And now we're kind of at the point of we saw a Friday session. And Thursday going into Friday, we had this really aggressive rally in the last like 45 minutes. And I went from literally from Thursday at around 2.30, 2.45 in the afternoon to being 99% sell buys to Friday being, well, I think I like the market. I think we're going to go higher just because the way the market completely really bounced off this rising support. And the next thing, you know, we started talking about in the live webinar, futures are up for Friday, futures are up Friday, you know, a little bit pre-market. And I turned around in the morning strategy and I said, well, these charts are kind of a mess. And again, one of the benefits, again, being in the live webinar, you know, we're constantly playing devil's advocate. It's not just well, roast a couple of glasses, let's see what happens. And I started talking about morning strategy that, you know, it's almost like the question for Friday session was, well, did the market really rally on Friday or was programmed buying the culprit, right? The kind of the catalyst to get the markets to get the structure at least from the macro view positive again. And we got that answer very, very quickly. It's almost like the question, what happened, you know, came first, the chicken or the egg. And I was very confused Friday morning. Like during morning strategy, for all you guys who obviously get the email every night, you just go through the webinar recording just in the first 20 minutes. And I said, I have no idea what to do here. Like I have no idea just because how confusing it was because I didn't know if the run up on Friday was literally artificial insemination, okay, or was this real buying to kind of, well, kind of start this next up turn again. And we got that answer very, very quickly, okay, incredibly quickly. And the worst part about Friday session, if you're a macro bull, okay, and you're a believer in the bull market was that the, the Thursday gain from three o'clock into the close was gone within the first five to 10 minutes. Like it was gone. The first 200 points that ran up on Thursday night was gone in the first five minutes. So now your question was, was there going to be another successful test of this rising wedge and why is this rising wedge important? This is kind of where the catalyst we go into this week. You can see it with your naked eye again. And I say this to new traders, you don't need to understand every moving part of technical analysis. But as long as you have the eyeball test, right, and you can look at a chart, even again, even if you don't know what you're talking about, even if, you know, don't know what you're looking for it. If you could identify similarities, okay, that's one step closer to you becoming to having, having a really good gauge and how to really read a chart properly. And if you notice what's been happening in the last three, four months is this big rising wedge, right? This is all rising sentiment, rising support. Every single time, right, we, we were about to hit technical damage we balanced, right? Hit technical damage we balanced. And this is even two weeks ago, we, we, you know, we hit technical damage. We were about to close under and then we balanced. And here we are again. Okay. And here we are once again, looking into the barrel. Well, at least the bulls are looking at a barrel of a really loaded gun. Now, before you turn around and say, yeah, buy the dip, buy the dip, buy the dip. Again, remember, buy the dip only works until it doesn't, right? It's a bull market fantasy that once it goes into bear mode or to sell mode, buy the dip doesn't exist. Okay. Again, I have said this for years. This is the only business in the world. When things go on sale, people don't want to buy. They think they do. The idea sounds great. It's the idea that somebody ran with buy the dip, right? Bears never learn buy the dip until they get caught on a multiple wave of tremendous selling. And this is the first close that I could remember because remember every close prior to this was above this rising wedge, right? This is prior, right? This is an engulfing candle. It held. It held. It held. It held. It held. And it bounced that day. This is the first close that we've seen now in the last, probably in the last four months since all this started that this is a make it a break. And again, I can't emphasize how important Monday's trading session is. Okay. This is a day that literally, okay? And again, you could turn around and say, Dan, you're crazy. You're blowing things up. I'm not. I'm really not. You can think that. And if it makes you feel better watching this, I've never really turned around and say, well, this is a make it a break it short term sentiment. But this is kind of, you know, this is kind of is. And if yesterday's sell-off, a Friday sell-off gets confirmed here, okay? You have literally eight to 10 points down in the QQQs. And it's just not in the NASDAQ 100 that you've obviously seen a lot of really decimated charts, especially on Thursday into Friday. And they're very, really, really close. They're forming incredible amount of technical damage. I'll go through some of the charts for you. But if you go through the other indexes, and again, I'll use the spy instead of the SPX. But, you know, the spy, again, is sitting on rising support. Again, think about this. This is the last time we hit rising support. We bounce really hard. This is the first time we closed right on rising support. Now, again, really aggressive technical damage doesn't happen until we lose this 298. But you could see it. You could visually see it. The low here right here is 296.74. Any close below 298 on the spies, it's not good, okay? Again, you could romanticize it any way you want. You could make excuses again. Technical analysis is not a subjective tool. These are the facts, okay? You could either make necessary steps to put yourself in a position to win, take necessary steps to put yourself in a position not to lose, or get the hell out of the way. You only have three choices. You can't just sit there and hope it doesn't happen. If you look at the Russell, right? If you look at the Russell, you could see it with your eyes. It's held now this rising, it's held now literally this rising support three times. The more times it tested, obviously, there's a very high probability it's going to break us. So, you see this area here, this 136 on the IWM. Again, it doesn't look that bad until, right? Until it breaks 136, then you have this measure potential to this 134 area. Again, it doesn't sound that bad, but think about if it loses this last rising support here, where the technical damage to confirm. So, you have to really understand where we are in the spectrum. Again, maybe it might not happen this massive, massive wave of another selling tomorrow, but again, at least prepare yourself. Like we talked about, you know, two, three days ago on that blow off top on the cues. We know who we are. There's a blow off top. There's an inverting hammer. Protect yourself. Do whatever you need to do. Don't be one of these traders, especially if you're a new trader and say, well, who could have possibly seen this coming? I'm telling you, this is right in front of us. So, you have to put ourselves in a situation to say, well, again, maybe I shouldn't look at the breakout stock. Maybe that's not where the value is. Maybe I shouldn't look at the stock that's up three weeks in a row that's starting to put in lower highs now for two, three days. Maybe I should start looking at stocks that did rally for the last two, three days, that didn't put any type of fight when the futures spiked on that program buy on Thursday. Maybe I should start looking at the charts that are starting to really test multiple levels of support. That's where the value is. Again, in this business, it's a relentless business. There are no Mulligan's guys. Once your money is on the table, it's gone. If you're wrong, it's gone. It's just the reality. So, you have to be prepared going into tomorrow's session. So, if you look at a lot of names that had really, really big run-ups, right? You're Amazon's of the world. Okay, right? Amblow off top. You had that program buy. That program guy lost it really, really quickly. 2712, now it's on the 10 day. Again, if you believe the 10 day moving average is the birth of the trade to the upside, well, what do you think is going to happen if the 10 day gets confirmed to the downside? Again, it might not look that bad, but again, 2690 to 2600 is still 90 points. That's a big, big deal. When you look at Facebook, for example, and it had this really, really nasty candle on Friday. What do you think is going to happen if this 50 day moving average gets confirmed? Again, maybe it doesn't look that bad if you're a longer term investor, but from the short term, going from 216 to 207, it's not the best thing in the world that you could possibly see. Even the video that had this really, really big run. Look how close it is really. Look at the rising wedge. Here's the rising wedge. Bounce, bounce. What do you think happens in the video if it closes below this rising wedge, this rising 20 day? This thing has 20 to 30 points of downside. Again, these are just a few examples of what might happen. Your job today, or your job this evening, or wherever the case may be of you looking at charts, your job is to make sure that number one, if you are heavenly invested, knowing this information in front of you, and again, you could take it or leave it. Again, that's up to you. We're all adults. You're allowed to do, you're allowed to do with your money, whatever you want. You're a dance floor. And again, can this all happen? Absolutely. Can I be wrong? Again, I'm wrong every single day. But again, it's okay to be wrong theoretically. Just do not be wrong financially. For example, if we do get a gap up for whatever reason on Monday, we do get a gap up tomorrow, and you knowing this information is possible, this is your time to really understand what your game plan is going forward. If you are fully invested again, what is your course of action? If you want to stay fully invested, do you start putting on hedges? Do you start shorting some of the ETFs? Do you start buying one of these creative derivatives like the SQQ, whatever the dogs, whatever they are, do you start putting yourself in a position that if all hits the fan, you are protected. Again, whether it's net short, whether it's fully per hedged on your long position. But again, do something proactive. Sitting there on the sidelines complaining about it after the fact knowing that this information in front of you is not going to do anything good for you. So you have to really take course of action. Now again, is this going to happen? Again, we don't know. All these things need to confirm. These are all opinions. These are situations that if they do happen, yes, I believe in technical analysis and I believe this will happen. But again, we can't forecast this happen. We can't anticipate this happen. We need to actually see it and then make adjustments to get very, very aggressive to the downside. So very aggressive trading week. Again, action is unbelievable. The action has been really, really good. You've seen a lot of things kind of the rail, a little bit of the enthusiasm. Number one, you're seeing aggressive cases in COVID. I think Florida had like 9,000 cases overnight, which is a lot. Which is absolutely a lot. We started seeing a lot of states that initially didn't have the massive outbreaks that we saw in New York, New Jersey, especially in New York, New Jersey, that are starting to get very, very aggressive states like Texas, obviously states like Florida and Georgia that did open up a lot earlier than everybody else. So obviously that is putting a wrench into this rally as well. Even again, I believe that anybody in office is irrelevant. I do. I also believe that a lot of my friends growing up, they're very, very passionate about politics. I'm not. I believe that if you have that much passion for a candidate, whether you're a Republican or you're a Democrat, if you put that energy into your own personal life, you'd be much more happier. Again, it doesn't make a difference who's in office, but having said that, Joe Biden and a lot of polls started seeing a bump. Even some polls he actually had a lead. So that kind of freaked the market out as well. Again, this is not pro-Trump. This is not against Trump. Again, for me, I'm right in the middle. I respect the office no matter who's in it, so it's not a political stance one way or another. It's just kind of me just telling you the facts. So that shook the market as well. So I think going into this week, number one, we need to see how any early selling gets handled. Okay, the buyer's solution. And there's a very, very aggressive defense, especially on the 20-day rising moving average. This is going to be something incredibly important, kind of setting the tone for the week. Again, any close on the indexes under the 20-day moving average, especially on the cues, it's going to be bad. It's going to be absolutely bad. So we have to pay attention, especially in the first two hours of the day. Friday's session, very, very aggressive. You can see here, and this is kind of my thought process. I literally said, I have no idea what's going on. I think I said, I think I like the market to the upside based on Thursday's close. But again, the charts were a mess. I go, the charts are a mess this morning. Everything's in the middle of the range is still tight. So naturally, I started putting in pivots to the upside, right? And then I started putting pivots to the downside after we completely collapsed and gave back Thursday's move within the first, you know, literally five, ten minutes of the day. So I started putting in charts to the upside, upside, upside, upside, right? They all put in their initial moves. There was no way, even near a confirmation to the upside, obviously, because everything pulled very, very aggressively. So again, it's a pretty basic thing in trading. And this is where we talk about not painting yourself into a corner. Okay, you always have to be very, very nimble to switch sides, switch bases, switch buys very, very quickly. Again, it's not the market we need to see. It's the market we have in front of us. So it's incredibly important to kind of go with the trend and not, you know, not fight against it or kind of make excuses. So these were all pivots to the upside, nothing confirmed upside, not even close. And then next thing, you know, we said, you know what? Things are starting to sell off. Let's start looking to the downside. And we did, right? So here's the first one. I didn't have a locate on this thing, unfortunately, but it was a hell of a flush for all you guys who did get it. Congratulations. I know if it builds below 30, can flush. Here is I know have this really, really monster big gap up monster run for the last like three, four days. Here is the 30 pivot. Here is the 30 pivot here right at this area right here. Here's the 30 pivot. And this thing just got just destroyed. It went down like, like five and a half, six points in that first candle. So if you did catch it, congratulations. Incredible. I mean, just incredible, incredible move. Unfortunately, I didn't have a, I didn't have a locate. Netflix 460, if it builds below, can flush. And KLA obviously never got to the 74 level. 460 on Netflix, if it builds below, can flush. Netflix got just destroyed. I mean, just absolutely destroyed. Here is the, you know, here is the 460 level, right? Excuse me. Here is the 460 level right here and just demolished. Just destroyed. I mean, this is again, it shows you the aggressive nature of this market. Again, by the dip only works when there's a, you know, when there's a, there's a rose colored glass effect that everything's all happy in the world. Look at me. Look at the move. I mean, this is a 30 point move from top to bottom on Netflix. Got just murdered. Tesla 974, 970, last two areas of sports that builds below can fall hard. And if you look at Tesla, Tesla is literally one day away from getting really aggressive technical damage. So here's the 974 area when, you know, went all the way down to this nine fifties level. And again, this is literally one day away, you know, from getting technical damage. This thing confirms this 20 day moving average is just kind of like mirroring every other ETF, major ETF. This is, you know, this thing has 70 points in it. Again, if the market starts selling, you have two, three weeks of selling, why can't Tesla fall down 70 points? Again, for me, I don't care. I trade Tesla to the upside, to the downside. For me, it doesn't make a difference. But again, logically, if you believe this stocks trade from supply to supply and stocks trade from demand to demand. Again, there's nothing in between the 20 day moving average in the fifties. So there's a lot of room to the downside. So you have to be very, very, you know, you have to really be alert. Take on the way down, Netflix destroyed. Yeah, you know, 948, 950 is the bottom of the range. DraftKings nice move on DraftKings as well. Again, you know, you've seen all these, you know, like when, I remember when Rudy Gobert, I think it was the first NBA player to test positive for COVID. The NBA suspended their season within, within 15 minutes. Okay. Now they have this plan and it does feel, again, listen, I am the last person who's going to say anything bad about any sports to open up. Man, I'm dying for sports. If you're like me and you love sports, the NBA, the NFL, hell, even baseball at this point. You need sports in your life. It's just, it's just so necessary. So I'm the last person to say, hey, they shouldn't open up. Okay. But what you're seeing from the first test that was positive to kind of where we are now, I think out of the 22 teams that are set to open up and the season is set to open up, I believe on July the 30th. Right. I think this is the first, the first game of the NBA. Now you see 6% of the players that are participating test positive and how the market, how the world has changed in four months. Now, you know, they're just kind of force feeding. And I get the television money. I get all that, man. I get all that. You know, again, you could see how the almighty dollar is much more important these days than the overall health. And again, I don't want to get into the whole discussion. It's, you know, it's, it's a big flu. Okay. Let's, okay. Let's whatever you believe, I respect your belief, respect mine as well. But again, at the end of the day, look how things change in four months. And DraftKings, again, it had a big run up on a, on a, on a, on a anticipation of all these leagues running up. And again, if there is just one doubt of, you know, one of these leagues opening up, these things are going to get hit. So we took, you know, we looked, we looked at this 34, 15, 34 daily. Any close below starts next like down. Here is DraftKings. Right. So it took out this 34, 14, 34 level. I traded down to like 30 to 60 ease. Again, it should get, you know, it should get down to this 30, 30 area. I still like the downside of this as well. DraftKings was a nice move there as well. And that's it. I mean, that's it. You didn't need a lot, right? You need a lot. I think the biggest problem with Friday's session was, of course, there was some aggressive action to the downside with Tesla and Netflix. Roku as well. I forgot to, I apologize for all you guys on the Twitter feed. I forgot to put Roku. I forgot to put Roku on the feed. There was a 23 break that went down as well. The problem with Friday's session was, number one, we had to figure out if the buying from Thursday was real or the buying was program driven to kind of set the floor, which obviously we got our answer in the first five, 10 minutes of the day. So, and also the problem on Friday, if you found yourself either getting chopped up or kind of confused, you got to write to me because the first big, big move came on one candle. The second big move to the upside came on one big candle and then everything kind of went kind of sideways to the down for the rest of the day, causing kind of a pretty ugly 3% move for the Dow and the S&P to kind of end the week with a 2% down for the NASDAQ composite. But I think more important is the market continues to be really, really good for all you guys who don't trade on the short side. And again, I understand it. Okay, I understand it because again, it took me years and years and years to kind of really get comfortable trading from both sides of the ledger. So, I get that part. But the one thing you do have to understand is God gave you two arms, two feet, right? Two eyes, two ears. Market God's given you both sides of the market to trade. So, you could be equally progressive and proactive in both. And again, especially if we do start confirming the 20-day moving average on a lot of these indexes, again, you have two choices. Either sit it out, which is absolutely nothing wrong with it, especially if you're a new trader and you're not used to market aggression. Or you can participate to the downside, which obviously, again, you can do so by buying bearish ETFs to the upside, obviously shorting the market via equity or buying puts. But the last thing you want to do, and this is kind of my piece of advice, especially for new traders, when the market has technical damage, there are no breakouts, okay? When I hear, when I see people talking about break, especially in March, when I saw the market completely just getting destroyed day after day after day, and people talking about breakouts, it's a novice thing to say. There's no professional trader going to sit there and say, the stock is breaking out when the rest of the market is imploding. Again, you might catch a trade once, you might catch a trade twice, but if you're going against the tidal wave, eventually it's going to drown you. So be very, very careful what you do if we do, if we start putting in technical damage. For all you guys who are joining us in the live webinar this week, please get there at 9 a.m. eastern time. That's when Morning Strategy kicks in. If you are joining us on the Twitter feed, which is a perfect place. If you've ever tried to wonder if the pivots are for you, that's the perfect place to start, especially if you can get into the live webinar. For the rest of you guys, have an awesome week. Enjoy your life. Again, we don't get a mulligan, right? Just the same way when you put your money on the table, you don't get a mulligan to get it back. So enjoy your life. Love your family. Learn to smile, and God bless you all. See you all tomorrow, guys. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? Straight off his personal watch list? 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