 Welcome to Asian Review. I'm your host, Bill Sharp. Our show today is Asia's Front Door of the Pacific Islands, and our guest is Dr. Fabrizio Buzato. Dr. Buzato holds a number of research positions in various institutions in Taiwan, Japan, Italy, Australia, and the Czech Republic. He indeed is a specialist on the Pacific Islands. But of all his qualifications, perhaps the most impressive one is his membership, where I met him, indeed, in our Wednesday night Taiwan-based dinner club. So I think what we're going to do today is we're going to dedicate this show to that Wednesday night gentlemen's dinner club. It's great. It's good to see you. It's really good to see you. Well, congratulations. You've just finished your PhD. You are a newly admitted PhD. I'm sure that you'll have a great career ahead of you. It's good to see you again. Well, the show today is I announced Asia's Front Door, the Pacific Islands. So let's get right into it. In fact, could you guys put up that map of the South Pacific that I sent you? We don't have that. Okay. Well, there seems to be... I sent a map to these guys, but I don't know. It maybe got lost in cyber air. Okay. But anyway, let's start off with a brief overview or summary of the geo-strategic situation in the Pacific Islands. Well, I'd like to start with a biological metaphor. The geopolitical DNA of the region is changing rapidly. Okay. It used to be a geopolitical but water. There's something like 20 back to 20 years ago, but now there are new transformational variables in the regional equation. The region is undergoing a process of oceanization. That was for so very clearly by the late Ron Kraken in the early 2000s. Now, the new Asian partners are offering the Pacific Island countries fresh partnership options, new developmental alternatives, and new foreign policy options. Of course, the new big guy on the block is China. The US has sort of forgotten about the Pacific Islands, hasn't it? So you could repeat the question. Okay, sure. The US has sort of forgotten about the Pacific Islands. Well, some analysts contend so. It is a little bit unfair toward the US, but because the US, the only global superpower, is distracted from the Pacific by what is going on in the Middle East and other regions. But it is true that the region is being overlooked by Washington. And that created a strategic opportunity for China to step in. That's really interesting because when Kurt Campbell was the assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, he put a lot of emphasis on the Pacific Islands. But that emphasis seems to have eroded since his time, but it wasn't really that long ago. But two other countries have played a prominent role in the Pacific Islands. And one is Australia and the other is New Zealand. So what can you bring us up to date on what their stance is on the islands? Well, they continue to be engaged over the last decade. They are somehow renewing their effort to engage, stay engaged with the islands. Australia is the top aid provider to the region. It has an essential role, especially in Melanesia. New Zealand as a Brazilian resources are more limited. But it plays a crucial role in a subregion like Polynesia. Signally, yesterday, New Zealand foreign minister declared that his country is going to shift the focus of its Pacific engagement from aid to development. Because the development was of the key words, of the buzzwords now in the Pacific Island region, in the South Pacific. China understood it very well. The Chinese are providing key infrastructural development aid to region, financial aid, the bulk of their assistance to the region is in the form of concessional loans. This, of course, is creating dependency and a debt trap potentially. So if we want to sum up the situation, we could say that China is eroding the traditional powers influence in the region, including the US, Australia, New Zealand, and we shouldn't forgot France as well. Interesting. Tell us about what is going on in Melanesia. You seem to have a lot of concern about what's going on there. Yes, it's the most geopolitically volatile subregion of the Pacific Island region. The region is divided into three parts, three ethnographic regions. Melanesia, Polynesia, Micronesia. The bulk of US strategic interest is in Micronesia. But Melanesia... Micronesia and the Marshalls, right? Responsibility was... Sorry. I said most of the US interest is in Micronesia and the Marshall Islands, correct? Yes, the Marshall Islands are part of Micronesia. Basically, we have the three compact treaty states, Marshall Islands, further states of Micronesia, Palau, plus the Commonwealth of North and Mariana Islands, Guam, the only Micronesia, then in Polynesia, the US has American Samoa. But Melanesia is the subregion which is giving big headache to countries like Australia. Well, the regional system mission to the Samoa Islands just ended, basically a few days ago. And now it's difficult to foresee where the Samoa Islands are waiting if they are able to retain their newfound stability. Actually, the Samoa Islands are one of the six diplomatic allies that Taiwan is in the region, but they're being countered quite successfully by China. China has strong economic presence in that country. Taiwan is responding by stepping up its diplomatic engagement with the Samoan Islands. But there could be new developments in the next months. Then we could even have a new country in Melanesia by 2018. What would that be called? Well, New Caledonia, which is interesting. Oh, that's right. Actually, that's my next question. That's my next question. Because New Caledonia is just on the verge of declaring itself independent from France, correct? Yes, they will have a referendum. Well, the outcome is not certain because the indigenous New Caledonians, the Canucks, are 39% of the populations. The Europeans are 27% of the populations. Caledonians, most Europeans are another 9% of the population and the rest of the mixed background. Well, a previous referendum, the first referendum was boycott by the National and Socialist Canada Liberation Front. So it's not, the outcome could be in the sense that New Caledonia will stay with France. But again, there's another potential new country in the region, Bougainville, same population of New Caledonia, roughly 250,000 people, much poorer in New Caledonia. And currently it is a province, an autonomous province, so Papua New Guinea. Let's stop right there for a second. Okay, Bougainville, that has been a troubled area for a really long time, hasn't it? I mean, it's got a very wealthy mining deposits. And then in 2001, an autonomous Bougainville government was established and they negotiated an independence referendum with Port Morrisby. But, well, Bougainville is a case that is the most likely referendum to succeed. In that case, we'll have a new, poor, unstable country in Melanesia. They are counting on an Australian mining company, The Othinto, in order to find a new state. They have a copper mine which was closed by The Othinto because of the civil arrest there. So they could succeed with gaining independence, but they could fail as a state. Okay. Well, you know, before we go any further, I'm just really kind of curious here, how does somebody from Italy get interested in the Pacific Islands? Well, by starting at the University of Tasmania. That'll do it. Yeah. Yeah. When I was researching my first MA thesis at the University of Milan, I had the opportunity to go to Australia. And then there I met some people and decided to stay for a while. And through Australia, I got involved in Pacific Island studies. I had the opportunity and privilege of lecturing at the University of Fiji. And I, well, I got, I got the Pacific bug and, you know, I still, there's no sign that I'm going to heal from that anytime soon. Well, what took you from the University of Tasmania to Taiwan then? Then when I was researching my second master thesis at the University of Tasmania, which was about holy sea-china relations, I met the Taiwanese ambassador to the holy sea, and he strongly advised me to pursue doctoral studies in Taiwan. And so here I am. That's really interesting. That's really interesting. Well, okay, the Solomon Islands, there's been a constant kind of sea-soling back and forth between, well, Solomon Islands in the middle, China, one end, Taiwan on the other, back and forth, back and forth. So what's the status there today? What's the story in the Solomon Islands today? Well, after Ramsey lived, Ramsey again is a regional assistant mission to the Solomon Islands. After the end of Ramsey, Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavari is still very much in power. Now, the country will have to fend for itself. There's still a, a ethnic conflict lurking, you know, under the ashes. The two main islands, the Solomon Islands like Guadalcanal and Malayita, their rivalry has been, was the prime cause for the Ramsey to exist. In the past, they had strong civil war. And now the country must find new reasons for unity. There are social and economic problems. China's signal is being a destructive force there. Illegal logging is still very much unabated in the islands. Much of that timber ends up in China. Data on these are helping, but the Solomon Islands are big enough. The Solomon Islands is one of the few Pacific Island countries which are not microstates. You're a microstate when your population is lower than a few people. Let's hold up right here because I'm getting told that we have to take a break. Okay. So we'll be back in one minute. You're watching Think Tech Hawaii, 25 talk shows by 25 dedicated hosts every week helping us to explore and understand the issues and events in and affecting our state. Great content for Hawaii from Think Tech. We all play a role in keeping our community safe. Every day we move in and out of each other's busy lives. It's easy to take for granted all the little moments that make up our every day. Some are good, others not so much. But that's life. It's when something doesn't seem quite right that it's time to pay attention. Because only you know what's not supposed to be in your every day. So protect your every day. If you see something suspicious, say something to local authorities. Aloha and Richard Concepcion, the hosts of Hispanic Hawaii. You can watch my show every other Tuesday at 2 p.m. We will bring you entertainment, educational, and also we tell you what is happening right here within our community. Think Tech Hawaii. Aloha. Welcome back to Asian Review. I'm your host, Bill Sharp. My guest today is Dr. Fabrizio Bazzato. He's joining us via Skype from Taiwan. I'll show today Asia's front door, the Pacific Islands. Dr. Bazzato is an expert on the Pacific Islands. Unfortunately, the area is often overlooked by policymakers in Washington and other capitals around the world, but it does have a growing geostrategic significance, especially the China. One thinks that while China on one hand criticizes the Japanese a lot, they've studied a lot of Japanese naval strategy from World War II very, very closely. And just as the Japanese put emphasis on the Pacific Islands, so was China, because I think it is literally the front door to Asia. Indeed. Okay. So, you know, the Boganville thing, that's such an interesting phenomena. I remember when I was in graduate school the second time, we had a case study based in a negotiation class, how to negotiate, right? And how to negotiate in a very difficult situation with an international background. And the substance of that case was the Boganville situation, especially it was so attractive to so many people because all the mines there. And then there was the indigenous population wanting to have do their own thing. And that's been such a complicated situation for so long. Really interesting. It does seem the only way out to me is independence. And maybe that brings us back to Taiwan. Yeah, well, you know, when I talk about Boganville with my Taiwanese friends, they say, oh, well, there will be a new state. Maybe they will recognize Taiwan. Very, very, very. Well, you know, it's a possibility I cannot exclude, but well, China is in much better position in the region to win the diplomatic allegiance of new states, provided that Papua New Guinea will asset the outcome of the referendum in Boganville. Right. They helped with setting up the autonomous Boganville government in 2001. But, you know, we just had the national lectures in P&G. Peter Nils is probably going to be referred as prime minister. And as such, he might decide that this is not a good idea, after all, to let Boganville be independent. We still have one year to go, but we'll be following development. The Australians are following the situation very closely, too. I hope that U.S. is doing the same. You know, it's really interesting when you talk about, as new countries come into the world, there's so much hope in Taiwan that they will then recognize Taiwan when East Timor became independent of Indonesia. And remember, there was so much hope. Oh, East Timor will recognize us. And then when Yugoslavia was breaking up and all their republics were becoming countries, there was so much hope that they would recognize Taiwan. And in some cases, it seemed like that might happen, but it never did. Well, that kind of takes me to this interesting article that she wrote for the Lowy Institute. And for our listeners, the Lowy Institute is probably Australia's most prestigious research institute. And Dr. Posato recently wrote an article for them called Who Will Abandon Taiwan Next? And that's sort of a guessing game going on, with the defection of Panama just very, very recently. The insinuation is that there'll be one country after another, after another, that follows suit and crosses straight from Taipei to Beijing. But I thought your article was really interesting because it really explored the Vatican's role in all this. And I think we could successfully argue that the entities that still recognize Taiwan, the Vatican is probably the most important. So, well, it's your article. So, I'll let you explain it and tell the audience about it. Well, yes, the Vatican, the Holy See precisely because the Holy See is the assertive sovereignty of the Vatican City-State. The Holy See is the supreme government of the Catholic Church. As such, it enjoys international personality and attentes diplomatic relations with what, to be precise, 183 states. The last to recognize the Holy See was Myanmar. And yes, it's the only European ally, diplomatic ally, that the Republic of China, aka Taiwan, as in Europe. And as some commentators argue, it is the only diplomatic service of note in Taipei that is a little bit unfair. But it conveys an idea of the geopolitical importance of the Holy See. The Holy See established diplomatic relations with the Republic of China in 1942. Then since 1970, they had just a chargé d'affaires à dintérim, pro-temporary here in Taipei. But today, relations between the Republic of China and Taiwan and the Holy See are cordial and friendly. They both shared a preoccupation with human rights. And Taiwan is a democracy which guarantees freedom of religion to local Catholics, the Catholic Church in Taiwan. They are roughly one percent of the population. China does not. China grants freedom of worship, but it implements a strong control over the Catholic Church in China, which is divided into two segments. The patriotic church, which is recognized by the state and the underground church. That the Holy See, the Holy See's diplomatic priority is twofold, freedom of religion for Catholics and the defense of human rights. The Holy See is not interested in signing free trade agreements, in receiving demand of AIDS, et cetera, et cetera. So this is basically the reason why... So basically what you're saying is China, with all its money, isn't going to be able to... This sounds a little bit crude putting it this way, but to forgive me, it's not going to be able to buy off the Vatican. No. I believe the Vatican is the only case of a state that cannot be bought off. What raised a substantial amount of rumors about the Holy See relocating this nunshooter that, by the way, it considers as its nunshooter to the whole of China, from Taipei to Beijing is the charm offensive that since 2014 Pope Francis has been conducting toward Beijing. Well, the negotiations have centered on the appointment of bishops, but they could also precipitate a diplomatic, the normalization of relations between the Holy See and China. That's a possibility we cannot route, but at this stage it is very premature to talk about normalization of relations between the Vatican and Beijing. Even the Vatican Secretary of State, Cardinal Parolin, at the Davos Economic Forum in January 2017, has declared it is still a long way and which requires a lot of patience. So if it's going to happen, it's not going to happen tomorrow or tomorrow after. It will still have a few years to come. Let's move on from here because we just have a couple of minutes left. In the couple of minutes we have left, sorry this always happens to us, we ran out of time, but we do have a couple of minutes left. In Italy, what's the basic Italian view of the Asia-Pacific region? Well, Italy has an export-oriented economy, as the Pacific as the global economic powerhouse. So in the last years Italy has renewed its effort to engage with the region. Quite successfully, Italian exports to key countries in Asia-Pacific are on the rise. Then with some of the countries in Asia-Pacific like Australia, for instance, Italy shares an identity of use and geopolitical closeness. I had some data here. For instance, Italy's exports to Oceania between 2010 to 2015 has grown by 30% and trade with Oceania has grown by 98%. So Italy is implementing a diplomacy with a strong economic component in Asia-Pacific. With some countries there, Italy has a very low history. For instance, the treaty of trade and friendship between Italy and Japan was signed in 1866. We think so much of the initial Western contact with Asia came out of Venice, the great Venice traders, Marco Polo and all that, making their way to Cathay. It's almost like a fairytale in a way. And it's also interesting to me to note that Italy is a country that's willing to stick its neck out a bit for Taiwan when it comes to weapons development. Because as you and I discussed, that there's some very cutting-edge minesweepers, mine layers actually, I think they are, being developed in Italian shipyards. So we're getting down to our last minute here. I'm just thinking, is there anything else you'd like to say in our last minute? Well, I will shift the focus back to the Pacific Islands region. There's a fundamental understanding among Western scholars about China's strategic culture. They tend to see China as a strategic threat in the region. In the Pacific Islands? A military threat. It is not. The Chinese, by definition, by tradition, prefer an indirect approach, and they prefer to use extra military means. Signally, namely, economic means. So if the U.S. intends to contain China in the region, it should put its wallet where its mouth is. That's good advice for people in Washington. I hope they're listening. Well, it's really good to have you on the show. It's good to see you again. And again, congratulations on this, getting your PhD. It sounds like you got a wonderful career ahead of you. You already have so many connections with so many research institutes spread around the world. It's really impressive. Well, it's globalization, you know. Okay, so I'll be sure to say hello to all my friends in the Wednesday Night Dinner Club. I'll be glad to obliged, and we're very much looking forward to your next visit to Taipei. Okay, thank you very much. And thank you very much for joining us today. We'll see you again next week, right here. Bye now. Goodbye.