 Good afternoon. Welcome to CMC Markets and this monthly non-farm payrolls webinar on Friday the 1st of September 2017 With me Michael Houston and my colleague in Canada, Toronto Colin Sizinski Good morning, everyone. Before we get started a few housekeeping rules. Obviously, we have to bring up the disclaimer which basically just Tells you tells you guys out there guys ladies and gents out there that none of what we're going to be talking about today Should be construed as direct trading advice. That's not what we're into But certainly what we will be hoping to do is to try and basically paint some color on the numbers that are coming out in 14 minutes time namely the non-farm payrolls headline number, but not just that it's the It's the internals of the report. So The wages numbers the the labor participation rate numbers and the Unemployment rate numbers and the potential effects that they're likely to have on US monetary policy Going forward given the fact that we have a Fed meeting later this month We also have a European Central Bank rate meeting next week and we may touch on that as well given how The euro dollar has actually been pushing up quite aggressively higher over the course of the last three to four months Up 8% since May up 13 or 14 percent since the beginning of the year So, you know talking about that talking about the weakness of the dollar Six successive monthly declines on its trade weighted index and whether or not I think would you a bit of a rebound in the US dollar so now that Now that we've got now that we've got the screen up Apparently one of my one of one of my users has said that apparently the Bureau for the Labor's Statistics is having technical problems. So the numbers will come up on the website Which means that they may not immediately come out? As they're released, which is a little bit of a worry. I have to say but We'll have to play that by year 130. They do out. They may be they may be slightly delayed So we do need to be prepared for that. So, thank you very much for that Life sounds like someone's gone off for the long weekend early Sounds like it indeed because obviously what we also have to factor in is the fact that it's a Labor Day holiday in the United States on Monday and that usually marks the end of the summer so You know certainly in the context of non-farm payrolls We could have a little bit of positioning adjustment ahead of the long weekend Which could also affect the way the markets react in the aftermath of the numbers also later this afternoon We've also got ISM manufacturing ISM prices paid ISM new orders all of those numbers But the jobs numbers the the the headline job numbers are going to be represented in the headline number that we're getting out this afternoon so First and foremost Colin will talk about what we're expecting You're expecting a slightly higher number than 180. So I'll let you Go through your rationale for your guest Sure, that sounds fantastic. I had been thinking originally something in the high hundreds 180 had seemed reasonable to me until I saw the ADP payrolls come out on Wednesday and they were pretty spectacular coming out in the 230s way above what the street was expecting and what encouraged me even more was the upward revision to July So what I've decided to I that at that point I bumped up my expectations for non-farm payrolls They they've definitely shown they a lot of strength here It's showing the robust North American economy continuing through the summer So I've gone to two to 25,000 for non-farm payrolls and I'm thinking we could get a About a 20,000 upward revision to last month last month was 209,000 for non-farm The other thing to know was and we'll talk about this as well a little later was the spectacular Canadian q2 GDP numbers that came out yesterday with a four and a half percent growth over year now some of the q2 Part of that is of course related to last year's wildfires which depressed q2 in 2016 But still overall robust economy most of the a lot of the signs We've seen coming out lately suggests the North American economy has actually been humming along fairly well Through the summer until the last week when we've had the the hurricane harvey disaster Come in and it's probably blown a two-week hole in in part of GDP But but that's it's come a conversation for later your turn Michael. Okay. Well, I'm going slightly lower than that I'm going to 10 and the rationale for that is ultimately when I've looked on a seasonal basis as to what non-farms and ADP payrolls have done in August people have suggested that and the August numbers generally tend to be weak with respect to Non-farm payrolls So if we go back to August last year we can see that the non-farm payrolls for August was 176 But the ADP number was also weak at 140 if we go back another 12 months We can see the ADP here was 132 in August But also the non-farm payrolls was a little on the weak side So and then if we go back even further to another year we got to 224 in 2014 and 213 in the non-farm payrolls So ultimately in August the two tend to correlate so I don't expect to see a significant difference In the non-farm payrolls number from the ADP payrolls number that we saw earlier this week And for that reason alone, I'm going around about 210 Colin could well be right Given that ADP generally tends to come at the lower end and non-farm generally tends to come above it But that being said, I think we can expect a number in excess of 200,000 And it would be a very big surprise if the number came in below that That's not to say that that can't happen ultimately correlations are there to be broken But I think in the terms of the big and bigger picture I think the headline number is neither here nor there and the headline number for me is going to be this Particular number that I've got on the screen right now and that's the wages numbers the average earnings numbers I think they could dictate what the dollar does over the course of the next few hours So let's talk about the dollar because I think in terms of are we going to get any more dollar downside I think at the moment there is there is some evidence that potentially we could be In a bit of a basing pattern for the dollar and why do I say that because if I look at say for example The US economy and I look at the way the market is pricing a rate on rise for the rest of this year If we look at the Bloomberg here, we can see that the market is assigning around about 33% Probability with the Fed will raise rates between now and December There's virtually no chance that we're going to get a rate hike in September So even if we get a decent dollar number, that's not going to change the calculus with respect to September September is going to be primarily focused on balance sheet reduction And I think that's probably the best that we can hope for with respect to the September meeting But certainly in terms of them still go on. Oh, I'm still not convinced that the Fed's even going to do that I mean between the They're still staring down the the barrel of a potential government shutdown in October budget Negotiations are underway. The US is about to hit its debt ceiling and then on top of that Hurricane Harvey has thrown a huge monkey wrench into everything because now they've got to start talking about disaster relief On top of that now some people have to have taken that as saying well Relief will encourage them to to actually get along and enough to to push through the debt limit because they would look politically awful if Disaster caught up in politics Yeah, I can see that and And so I think that's one of the reasons we've seen the US dollar start to bounce back a little bit this week is so it'll be interesting to See if it's enough to to encourage the Fed to proceed with Valentine normalization because then at the same time you say what's the what would the Fed be doing? Tightening when they're dealing with a natural disaster sure So it's kind of up in the air. I think but it's all about positioning as well You know in terms of the market if the markets not positioned for an increase in The odds of a Fed timing that in itself can pull the dollar off its lows You know if that number there moves from 34 percent to 42 percent That will tighten the ill curve and it will push and it will push the dollar up So it's not about what the Fed will or won't do it's what the market thinks it will do relative to the positioning within the market And for me at the moment you've had six successive down moves in the you you know in in the US dollar Index and ultimately there needs to be at some point a little bit of what I would call Positioning adjustment and ultimately we're not really seeing that at the moment and certainly looking at the way the candlesticks have been pricing If we look at the dollar index we can see a little bit of a hammer there on the dollar index What we do need to do is break this little downtrend line that we're currently coming in From the highs that we saw earlier in August, but ultimately While I think we could squeeze back to around about one nineteen fifty one nineteen eighty in the short to medium term this evening star Reversal here would appear to suggest that maybe The short positions could be in the process of getting a little bit squeezed So I think in terms of the actual overall number a decent number here Dollar number could prompt a little bit of downside risk on you a dollar and a little bit of a squeeze in the US dollar Absolutely and especially Michael when you can when you look at it in the in the context of other markets You also have a similar pattern so with this evening star in the euro dollar You've also got a blind climax and and a bull trap where you peaked up above 120 And then you got knocked back in that and of course that peak was also a shooting star You've all you've got a similar pattern with gold where it had popped above 13 20 to 13 25 Got knocked back. You're also looking at the reverse of that the mirror image is the more potential morning star The hammer you pointed out where it got pounded down Under 92 and then and then pop back up. So you've got three kind of markets that are all showing very similar Technical kind of patterns emerging. But also if we look at dollar cat The weakness of the dollar against Canadian dollars been quite marked since May but now we're approaching a big big big support level It's the 200-week moving average, but also we've got a very long-term trend line from the lows in 2012 So we look I'm looking at that at the moment and we're looking at those lows that we saw in July We're at a very very key level on the Canadian dollar. So the quick question We really need to be asking around about 124 is what's going to drive it below 124? given How much in terms of gains we've seen in the Canadian dollar over the course of the past three weeks and given the fact that it's a US holiday It looked like we had a massive double bottom for forming here in dollar cad And it was just starting to pop up off of it and until we got that spectacular Canadian GDP number yesterday Now the Bank of Canada is meeting next week on Wednesday Nobody's really expecting at this point that they'll raise rates to meetings in a row But most I think that there's a lot of people will be looking to the statement to see are they going to hint at a second-rate increase This year whether it's in October or December It's important to remember the Bank of Canada in the since the financial crisis has moved in raised moved rates twice So in 2010 they raised rates twice in 2015 they cut rates twice So now here in 2017 they've raised rates once They'll probably raise rates one more time to get it back up to 1% and then and then they may or may not stop But at least initially people will figure that they'll probably go one more time and then stop. So that's going to be the next thing Excuse me for the next few days is is people are going to be speculating on what is the Bank of Canada going to say it? It's meeting next week given these Incredibly strong beyond anybody's expectations GDP report. So So keep an eye on 124 dollar cad keep an eye around 119 and a half euro dollar And the dollar is looking a little bit weak at the moment ahead of these numbers which suggests to me Perhaps there's a little bit of a little bit of positioning Adjustments going on at the moment looking at the cable, you know people people are always beating out of the pound at the moment I'm not one of them. I Do like to be slightly contrarian however and that can be a bit dangerous But ultimately I still expect the pound to try and head back towards 130 as long as we stay above this series of loads Around just below 129. I think the buyer still remains to the upside and we can certainly see that in the context of this move Here but ultimately I also think that looking at euro sterling and Colin We talked about potential reversals in the euro. We saw a significant reversal on the day When euro sterling there now the big level on that is 91 80 on the downside 90 to 40 50 on the top side. So I Think I would be sort of be a bit reluctant to be You know overly long euro sterling at this point in time if we go above 92 50 then we could well squeeze back But ultimately I would expect on a break below 91 80 for us to push down towards 90 40 let's quickly do dolly in if you looked on that quickly the Stochastic's rolled back under 80 as well. That's a Correction signal and the RSI has rolled back under 70 on that pair. Yep indeed dolly in You know, you can throw a blanket over that it's well bit around about 108 and a half between one or eight And I don't want to wait one away and one way in half, but it's also well offered around about 111 Through these series of peaks through here So at the moment if I look at the dolly in it's looking a little bit soft But looking at these series of loads through today. I think you'll you know be surprised 244 244 It's just been released by CNBC for non farm payrolls But it's early. It's early Someone's just flashed up 244 so that's a decent number and as I suspected it might be and The dollar is heading higher But CNBC I think got a little bit premature on the older release and they've released it is 244 Let's see what actually happens on the actual countdown What 156 you're having a laugh? That's bizarre Wow, that's really low That is way off well done CNBC, it's all I can say One interesting thing from this is So it's mostly it's so the non firms 156 the pride of the privates 165 which was close to 172 but the interesting one manufacturing up 36k and Versus Street 8k and Manufacturing upward revision last month to 26k Donald Trump's going to be pretty happy about that Yeah, he's not gonna be particularly happy about the headline right and no and the way and the way to talk about manufacturing And the wages is disappointing as well. Well, I'll tell you 2.5 Yeah held at 2.5 and we're expecting an increase 2.6. So that's very negative So probably gonna see dolly and head back towards the lows That is up. There's there's gonna be a stewards on that. I mean CNBC for releasing 244 I mean, I've got it in front of me. I can't believe it. Did you see that? Correction now they've released a correction non-farm payrolls increased by 156 in August versus 180 Someone's got fired that someone's getting fired in the morning Or someone's getting fired now So, yeah, I mean the dollar cad's dropped through that 124 level. I mean this just gone 12379 So where do we go from here? So basically what that does is gonna break for dollar CAD Yeah, major break for dollar CAD, but more importantly We're probably gonna head back towards 120 on Eurodollar on the back of that number. And yeah, sure enough we have so what we really need to see now on Eurodollar is for us to close above 120 to suggest to move back to all tools around about 123 so guys I can only apologize for Saying 244, but I was only quoting what CNBC released on my iPad art and Yeah, I'm getting All over my face with the markets thought thought the same as well. Didn't they? I mean dolly in suddenly Yeah, the other interesting thing the non-firm last month provides down 20,000 instead of up the this is a huge divergence between between ADP and non-firm Yeah, no, absolutely, but if you look at the change in the private payrolls For the you know, we've we've seen we've seen a bit of a revision up there as well So now we have it's been revised down. So this down slightly down slightly. Yeah, it's 202. I was reading it off. I was reading the wrong column So yeah, I mean basically what we're looking at now is it's unlikely the dollar's gonna go too much higher today And I think as I suspected the pounds gonna head back towards 130 But I was predicating that on the basis of a slightly weaker euro sterling not a weaker dollar so We're really pretty much back to the drawing board, but certainly I think in terms of the ECB Mario Draghi's not going to be thinking the US jobs numbers because it doesn't make his job any easier for next week Certainly in terms of trying to limit limit the gains in the euro Which we've seen over the course of the past term over the past few days. So let's look at gold because especially since the The the European economy has been humming along and one thing I did find really intriguing this morning was that if you looked at the The PMI reports one thing that I cleaned out. It was one obviously the UK was very good But Italy was good. Greece was good and Greece's GDP was good These these lagging countries in Europe that have been dragging on everything Some of them are starting to look like they may be starting to get some traction this summer and that that's That puts more pressure on on Draghi to reach into changes sinking as well It does but also, you know, you can look at the PMI the manufacturing PMI for Greece Which came in at 52.5 which is a nine-year high and that's all nice, you know, it's great And everything else but tell that to the 35 40 percent youth unemployed in that country at the moment Yes, and the similar sort of amount that are in Italy and Spain, you know, this is what I would call You know, it is it is a jobs recovery But the Spanish unemployment rate is still 18% and the Greek unemployment rate headline under par is still 21% Okay, it's down from 27 and 22 Respectively, but it's still way too high and it's still well done that and it's still well below the EU level EU unemployment rate still well above the levels. It was prior to the 2007 financial crisis when it was around about Six or seven percent. It's still 9.1. So You know, you can you can talk talk about Really good manufacturing PMI services PMIs and what have you it's all very nice But there's still an awful lot of young people who don't have jobs True And that is a problem the gold has actually gone up on those numbers Which is not really too much of a surprise because ultimately what it does is it means that The likelihood of a fed rate rise is diminished further and ultimately I think it could actually change the discussion around tapering or balance sheet reduction perhaps You know, it's a good for gold today. It's a weak jobs number. It's a weak wages number and PCE earlier this week was 1.4% So where's you know, where's where's the where's the wage inflation? Where's the price inflation? Now you might see it at the back end of this year because of gasoline prices perhaps Which would put upward pressure on inflation, but that's the one kind of inflation Especially if you're a consumer Yeah, absolutely and on top of that the Fed will probably sit there and it will probably say the the spiking gasoline was Temporary and ignore it Transitory what they do in these kind of cases. Yeah, the word is transitory mate like most inflation. Oh, yeah, it'll pass. Yeah Well, of course it does it always passes eventually Listen it yeah, it's crazy. So let's look at this. Let's look at the key levels on Dale's back above but there's above 22,000 and the likelihood is we're gonna head back to 24 85 on the S&P I can't see too much really to stop that from happening and the Oscillators looking positive. We've broken above that 24 50. We've broken above the highs that we saw in the August So it looks like we're gonna head back towards about 24 80, which was the highs that we saw in early August look at the Dow Once again fairly positive for the Dow probably gonna head back towards the highs that we saw in August around about 22,100 this high here Again, can't really see any reason as to why we can't go higher there And can you pull up the Nasdaq Michael? Sure Look at the Nasdaq. Nasdaq has broken out over 6000 today to a new all-time high. So when the markets open in the US in just under an hour We will see a new record high on the Nasdaq 100 So, yeah, I mean, where do you go? I mean look at that look at that rise there. We've got an Apple product launch on September the 11th Monday week 12th on 12th Tuesday week So, but I think most people I mean most of that's been leaked anyway So we know what's coming a new iPhone 8 a new Apple watch and a new Apple TV apparently What I want to know is whether or not they're gonna bring out a new iPad mini because if they do I know I'm getting my misses for a birthday Right so German Dax Let's have a quick look at that because we've been in a downtrend for quite some time and The higher euro is not going to help in that regard look at this This has been one of my favorite charts for the past two or three months because every time the euro has gone up The Dax has managed to roll into a little bit of a resistance level and even though we are up today We're not in any way close to pushing through that resistance line from those peaks that we saw in June So I think if the euro continues to remain where it is up near towards 120 It's going to be very difficult for the Dax to break above these particular levels here Certainly in terms of what the footsie's done and the back and the rise in the pound we've seen the footsie also roll back off the back of Those numbers starting to roll back from the 74 60 level here You know this is this is the this is the problem with the markets at the moment huge amounts of divergence With respect to what European markets are doing in US markets are doing US markets love a weak dollar But they also don't mind a too strong a dollar. So it's a bit of a Goldilocks scenario for US markets at the moment Unlike European markets, which is thinking much more susceptible to the value of the euro and I think that in that context next week's ECB meeting is going to be very very important We've seen 13 14 percent rise in the value of the euro this year now. We're told ultimately that You know, we shouldn't worry too much about it But these are the same people who are having apoplexy about the fact that the pound lost 15 percent of its value in The wake of the Brexit vote. We were told that was very very bad And yet we see a 14 15 percent rise in the value of the euro. So it doesn't matter Well, you can't have it both ways. You see the very very bad very very good or something in between or it doesn't really matter that much so Looking looking at this 74 60 Decent level of resistance on the footsie depending on the value of the pound Dax pretty much the same and even anything near 120 is going to be difficult for the Dax to really push higher And and the same really applies with respect to The rest of it really I think dolly in we've talked about that. It's in a range I think it's unlikely to break out of it and now the now the dollar's suddenly gone big You're a dollar's just dropped any any idea why? Haven't seen anything new ECB is said to see chance QE plan not fully ready until December. Can you tweet December? There we go. There we go Yeah, people. I think we're I think people were thinking October. I don't think anybody was expecting December anyway No, no, December. So they're stalling. They're stalling and you sit in the reaction God, I love foreign exchange So that's the reason for that Any questions ladies and gents while we're on we've still got three or four minutes to go Any questions on shall we shall we do I'm crude oil quite amazing how that sure let's do crude oil Let's talk about crude oil and and gasoline when you we've had the we've had hurricane Harvey has gone through now And this is this is a really really big big does that natural disaster usually when hurricanes hit North America? They usually hit the coast they the the Russian land and then they dissipate fairly quickly into into just rain But this time around what happened was the high pressure system basically kept the eye of the storm sitting right on the coast Just in and out of inland and and basically just kept pouring rain on Houston for the better part of a week And and there's just huge amounts of flooding There's a lot more in an extensive damage than you usually get from a hurricane And that's what and that's why we saw as the week progressed the natural gas price on the near contract really spiked The the farther out months have not come up to the same extent and so that's that's normal That's that's telling you the markets expecting a short-term squeeze in gasoline prices But that went in time if things would go back to normal the crude oil price on the other hand We saw going down during the week, and then it popped yesterday the The crude oil what's happened was people were saying well the crude oil most of the productions inland Unaffected but there's no way of getting it down to the to the refineries that are all on the Gulf Coast And the problem is not only the refineries themselves being shut in But the the pipelines in and the ports because a number of something like 11 ports along the Gulf Coast have also Those may take a little while to get going the one thing that might save a refinery is that we're heading into the time of Year when they retool and and do fixes to plants Anyways as they switch over driving driving season in North America ends this weekend the the peak peak demand for gasoline and And so then we're starting heading towards retooling season when the refineries start getting ready to switch production over from Gasoline to heating oil and getting ready for the winter. So that's a yeah So we're at a point where refinery production usually comes off anyways But but because of some of the damage done it may well It still remains to be seen how long production is going to be offline some of the the western refineries We're starting that we're starting to come back some of the eastern refineries because it's from kind of went northeast Into Louisiana is still shut down So it's still up in the air when this happens and what you'll be looking at is the inventory Reports for probably the next three weeks at least are going to be all over the place And it remains to be seen how much the streets going to pay attention to those Given the circumstances that it's going to be wildly distorted because of this this massive storm and huge natural disaster Yeah, indeed. I mean, I think that's probably why the inventories are still high Which is why gasoline gasoline has spiked because they obviously can't convert those inventories into actual gasoline But that's right. You know, there's still there's still quite high levels and once they get that back online You'll see it come back down again, which is also explains why Brent hasn't come down and WTI has slightly different supply and demand dynamics, which is why these the spreads have widened out between WTI and Brent. So Anyway, yeah Unless anyone has any other questions about potential what's happening next week or on anything that we haven't covered We'll we'll wind them up. We'll wind this this particular payrolls story up David has a webinar on Monday at 12 15 if you want to sign up for that when he previews the week ahead Otherwise Colin and I will have to thank you for attending this rather Interesting non-farm payrolls report where CNBC leaked to the numbers before and then the numbers were completely wrong But I suppose hopefully no one lost too much money as a result of that And then of course the ECB came out and suggested that they won't have a table plan ready until December So all to all fun and games. I've been asked about the yen what dolly in euro yen You know what what yen cross would you like me to? Talk about sir Or just the yen in general Let's talk about let's talk about dolly in because ultimately That's not going anywhere at the moment. I think it's well supported around about 108 20 And it's well offered around about 111 and at the moment that's just range trading in it. I think it's in the sweet spot I think in terms of where the Bank of Japan would like it Certainly in the context of where the Federal Reserve would like it if you look at this dolly end chart Since the beginning of the year we've traded in the 600 point range. So I think that pretty much sums it up You know, we're towards the lower end of that I can't really see any reason to get too excited about that a euro yen might be a slightly different story given given Those own comments from the ECB that could be In the process of potentially topping out certainly I think there's potential for a little bit I mean, is this a triple top Colin? I mean, it's a sloping top because you've got peaks in July peaks in August Yeah, that looks that's starting to look like a triple top to me And I think what you really want to keep an eye on is 130 if we see that start to roll back under 130 or you see that something like the stochastic start to roll down again Then yeah, you'd be looking at a triple top while we're talking about the euro I've been sitting I've been looking at this minute chart on the euro US dollar and we had the spike and it got as high as 180 or sorry 180 when that ECB announced and hit the wires and and so it's starting to look to me Like the the ECB is trying to defend 120. It looks like it's we spiked up above it a couple of days ago And now as soon as we got anywhere near it boom the you right the EU is out trying to talk it down in In some way and it looks to me like that might be their Their trigger point where they're just saying enough is enough Well, let's have a listen. Let's have a look at it We'll see let's have a look at this 90 180 level because I've identified that as a little bit of a trigger point on euro sterling I'm right on it. We're right on it right now. So You know, I think if we get a little bit of a rebound in euro sterling Certainly wouldn't be looking to You know look to sell it here because ultimately you're on the lows of the day But if you get a rebound on euro sterling back to around about 92 20 or 30 Might might be worth might be worth looking to Sell into that sort of area with a with a fairly tight stop on it because I think the direction of travel does appear to be clear in terms of the euro and the center and the ECB's views of it ultimately in our 14% rise in such a short space of time is very difficult to manage in terms of currency exposure and currency hedging for European companies While they may be able to hedge on a slightly longer term basis These shorter term moves are slightly more problematic. So I think they want to smooth it They want to smooth it out. So I think as a result of that We may see a little bit of a rebound off to sort of 9175 80 area and head back towards around about just above 92 Perhaps we'll see it's difficult. It's difficult to know in this sort of environment at the moment But it does appear to be the case That I think it's going to be very very difficult for people to be longer euros heading into this weekend and with the ECB Coming up next week Aussie dollar just been asked about Aussie dollar. So let's have a quick look at that That 200 week moving average is proving to be problematic for Aussie dollar I'm looking looking at this chart now and seeing there's a good barrier around about 80 We've seen two attempts on a weekly basis to move above the 200 week moving average both attempts have failed So I think as long as we close as long as we're unable to close above 200 week moving average Then ultimately I think the potential for a higher Aussie is going to be fairly constrained And let's also remind yourselves or remind ourselves ladies and gents. It's an RBA meeting next week And I can't imagine that the RBA Will want to talk the Aussie up. I think they have concerns that it will be Yeah, it will it will be uncomfortable for them shall we say so RBA have a meeting I think it's Tuesday. Is it Colin? Yes, so yes So RBA a meeting next week Bank of Canada a meeting next week the European Central Bank a meeting next week so you've got a You've got you know quite a few central banks Who could potentially? Give rather conflicting stories. So maybe Aussie cad's a bit of a prior Yeah, and the other thing with the Aussies in particular is this eight We had this up until a few minutes ago. We had the Aussie and the cat both sitting at about 80 cents us I think the the Aussies in particular will probably try and defend that Try and put some kind of headwind in around that level. I don't think they want it going above 80 Yeah in any in any meaningful way just like I was mentioning earlier with the ECB at 120 I don't think the Aussies want to go above 80 and the Bank of Canada may find themselves uncomfortable with it as well But they still see I've done debate I'm kind of torn between the you know Are they going to want it to kind of hang around 80 now that we've blasted through it or and how committed are they Going to be do another rate hike with the if the way the dollars been climbing show Okay, that's there they're going to be they're going to find themselves between a rock and a hard place as well with the Wanting to raise rates and seeing the loonie go going through the roof. No indeed, mate Okay, okay. All right. Well, unless anyone has got any other questions Hopefully That that's that's it for this month. Obviously we'll be here same time same place in October first Friday in October for the September jobs report. Otherwise Colin and I would like to thank you for your attendance and Wish you luck in all your trading For the rest of the day and have a good weekend They have a great day trading trading everyone in a great long weekend for everyone in North America