 Good morning and welcome to the weekly market update with me, David Madden. Today's date is Monday the 6th of July 2020 and the time is 9.07 British summer time. And it's been a very positive start to the European trading session. We've seen big gains across all the major indices in around rallies of 2%. And this was fuelled on the back of a very positive session in Asia overnight. The Shanghai Composite had its largest single daily gain since 2015. We had a big rally in stocks in mainland China as we did in Hong Kong. And one of the reports behind the positive move was a state of that, that margin trading, margin financing has grown greatly in the last number of months. And that was cited as one reason behind the major move to the upside in Chinese stocks. Now, the very bullish move seen in China comes in a time where the health crisis is still a sadly rumbling arm. Over the weekend, the World Health Organization said that there was a record number of daily cases over the weekend. 212,000 additional cases is what their reading was. In the US, over, you know, in the region of 39 states, I've seen an increase in the number of cases. So the health crisis is still very much front and center. But today's session seems to be dominated by the bullish sentiment out of China. And that seems to be ripping around the rest of the world. It is worth noting at the back of last week, there was some hopes and some positivity. On the back of the fact that the US job support, the non-famperal figure, was better than expected. We also had news out of Pfizer and also BioNTech. Their progress in relation to a potential COVID-19 vaccine is going so well so far, but it's still very early stages yet. So what I'll do now is take a quick look at the week ahead article. Look at the major events of the week and then I run through some of the popular markets, indices, foreign exchange, and a few foreign exchange pairs, and then also a number of commodities. So the week ahead article can be found on our website, cmcmarkets.com. Under Insights, you'll find it under News and Analysis. So this week, the major events to look out for, we have the Reserve Bank of Australia Interesting decision that's going to be out on Tuesday or Friday, depending on which day we're going to work, early hours, overnight for us in the UK. We have first full year figures from Halifords. They do a number of things, largely a cyclist specialist here in the UK. JD Sports will have full year numbers out also tomorrow and Tuesday. We also have first quarter numbers coming out from Whitbread. And we have second quarter numbers coming out from Levi Strauss. One of the big things to look at this week, even though a lot of it has been already been discussed and mentioned in newspapers, is that the UK is going to have an economic statement. Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, is going to map out effectively spending plans and a way to kind of fiscally stimulate the economy. There's already talk of about five billion going on infrastructure, roads, broadband, schools, all these sorts of various things. And even the house building sector is tipped to receive a boost as well. Speaking of house builders, Per Simon, one of the biggest home builders in the UK. They have second quarter updates. They have a second quarter update coming out on Thursday. We also have a second quarter update from Rolls Royce coming out on Thursday. We have a first quarter update from Workspace, the property specialist coming out on Thursday too. We also have a second quarter update from Delta Airlines on Thursday. As always, excuse me, the US weekly job as claims report will be coming out on Thursday. That's going to be closely watched. The rate at which the number of new people signing up for job unemployment benefit has been tapering off and it's likely to taper off and also keep an eye on the continuing claims report. Last week, that unexpectedly actually increased, which could be a sign that the pausing of the reopening of economies in the US could actually be causing people to actually people who were brought back to work to now go back on to be unemployed or back to be furloughed. And lastly, as far as economic indicators and announcements go, the big ones to watch out for at the back end of the week will be the Canadian job support. Starting off now, I take a look as they always do across a number of the big indices, starting with the FTSE 100. So broadly speaking, a nice upward trend for the last number of months. Today, we're just below 3,600 now, but we have been above it. So it's the highest level. We hit about a 10-day higher, a week and a half high on the FTSE 100. While we hold above this trend line here, it's likely we're going to see further gains and should be pressed on higher from here. We could be looking at retesting 3,600, 3,400 and a decent move beyond that. It could take us up to the highest scene in June at 3,513. If though, we do have a move to the downside, we could see some support commit to play from this blue line here, the 50 moving average. And that comes into play. The 50 moving average comes into play just south of 6,100. It comes into play at 6,099. And we can see here on a couple of occasions, not that long ago, the 50 moving average acted nicely as support. And if a metric is active support in the past, it makes it more likely it will do so in the future, although there are no guarantees. It is a fairly similar situation over in Germany with the DAX. It's been driving higher since late March. Nice upward trend all along here. Today, it hit its highest level last scene since early to May, June. We still haven't tested the highs of June yet, but that will be the next area to keep an eye out for to the upside. So keep an eye out for 12,930. If you do have a pullback in the DAX, we could see support commit to play from this red line here, the 20 moving average. That comes to play at 12,157. And if you go below that, we could be looking back down towards 12,000. And to be honest, it's only really if you have a size of break below this blue line here, the 50 moving average, which acted nicely as support on a few occasions back in May. It's only really if you have a decent break below that, could then we begin to rethink the wider upward trend over the past few months. Let's take a look across the Atlantic Ocean and see what's going on with the Dow Jones. Similar situation, been a nice upward trend the last number of months. We're currently expecting the Dow Jones to open around 26,294. We're pretty much hovering in around the 200 day moving average for the Dow Jones. The during the moving average is often seen as a benchmark. But above the 200 day moving average, it seems to be bullish. If it's below it, it seems to be bearish, it seems to be weak. So we're pretty much in around that metric at the moment. If we can get back above that metric comfortably and hold above it, we could be looking at building on the gains and looking at retesting the highs of early to mid-June in around 27,633. But even if you drift back below, drift lower from here, we could see the poor to come into play from the 50 day moving average. This blue line here is actually support nicely in mid-May, again in mid-June and also in late June. So that metric on a few occasions has actually support not that long ago. So as a possibility, we could see some fresh buyers enter the fold should we see a move down towards, back towards the 50 day moving average. And that comes into play at 25,208. I'll take a look now. I'll check out the S&P 500. Once again, it's a similar situation to the Dow and also the European indices. It's been a nice upward trend the last number of months. We are aging higher along here. In fact, today's level, probably the highest level that we've seen since about the 11th of June. So we're in a strong, we continue to build on the recent gains. We're pressing higher. We're currently expecting the S&P 500 to open around 3,176. If we continue to push on higher from here, we could be looking at targeting in 3,200. And if we go beyond that, we could be looking at retesting the highs of early to mid-June in around 3,232,33. If you do drift a bit lower from here, support could be found from this blue line here, the 50 day moving average. Once again, it's been a common theme with a few of the major indices that found support from their 50 day moving averages. We could see something similar with the S&P 500 as well. And the S&P 500 50 day moving average comes into play. Well, it's just south of the turn of the moving average. It comes into play at 3,019. And notice how the 50 day moving average, the blue line here almost kind of coincides or is coming into converges with the turn of the moving average, which also acted as support on a few occasions recently. So with the convergence of those two moving averages, some traders would be keeping on the 200 day moving average, others would be keeping on the 50, so it kind of almost compounds the strength potentially of how crucial that metric could be should we see a drift back down there. So you can see, so the common theme is that stock markets in Europe and the US are pushing higher. So tying in with that theory which says the averages must confirm each other while they're all moving together at the same time, higher that is, it's likely that all those could continue to move higher. I'll take a look now at a couple of the big currency pairs starting off with Euro-Dollar. So the Euro had a great move between from May into early June in a three month high in early June. You had a pullback, a lower low, a lower high. Then we've been trading sideways the last few days, but we now appear to be, we've clearly found support from this zone here in a one spot 1168. While we hold above that, we could look at building pushing higher and building on the wider gains. If we do press on higher from here, we could be looking at heading back up towards 114 or up towards the highs in June, early June in a one spot 1422. And if you take all that level there, we could be looking at heading back up towards the highs of early March in a one spot 1495. If on the other hand, we do have a decent break below this area here, the lows of mid-June in around one spot 1168. If I could head it back towards this red line here, the two of the moving average, and that comes to play in a one spot 1040. We could see in a few occasions, it acted resistance in around late March and then we saw a bit of consolidation in that zone also. I said March and then May, we saw some resistance coming to play in around late May on a few occasions. So we'll keep an eye out for that metric, should we have a decent move to the downside. I take a look now at what's going on at the pound versus US dollar. So sterling dollar has been drifting lower for the last three weeks there, thereabouts. To be honest, it hasn't been the most interesting of currency pairs recently, but we are pushing lower. We remain in the downward trend recently. Volatility has been low, notice how we've had a lower low, a lower high, a lower low, a lower high. We've had a few lower lows and lower highs. The highs of early July haven't really taken up the highs of late June yet, so we're still in the recent downward trend. If the market does manage to turn over on the side yet again, if we do drop below 124, we could be looking at retesting the lows of the late last month in around one spot 2257. And if you go below that, we could be looking at heading back down toward this area here, the lows of mid-June in one spot 2076. And if you go below that, we could be looking at heading back down towards 120 itself, a big psychological number. If on the other hand, we do manage to kind of hold above the 124 area, I'll look to build on the recent gains you've seen in the past few sessions. Keep an eye out for this red line here, the true thing we're moving average. That comes into play at one spot 2684. You can see how that metric acted nicely. I've resistance here in the middle of June, so that metric has been important in the past. It makes it likely that it'll be important in the future, but there are no guarantees. And if you take out the dirty moving average, they keep an eye out for the highs seen in June, one spot 2813. I'll just take a look now at some commodities. Brent crude, the September contract. So I've always had a great run between late August, late April, late April into June. It's had a very decent run. There's a major bounce back in the oil market between production cuts for more back plus. In addition to that, the reopening of economies changed perceptions about what demand is going to be. But given that we've had health issues in relation to countries and US states reopening their economies has led to an increase in cases, that's kind of almost caused some countries and some US states to pause or even revert the reopening of their economy. With that, there's been some fears that, hold on, maybe demand for oil won't be that high because we seem to be in the scenario of if you reopen the economies too much, COVID-19 cases take off again, and then we're going to pause that. So the moves hasn't been particularly interesting recently, but by and large, we're still in the wider upper trend over the past few months. And if you do press on higher from here, we could be looking at targeting the lows of early march in at $46.33. And even if you drop below from here, if you do have a pullback, it could be found from mid-run, the kind of big number, the big psychological number of $40 per barrel. Now lastly, I will take a look at what's going on on the gold market. Gold, it was only last week, mid-last week, gold on the 1st of July, hit its highest level in October of 2012, so it's new, new 77.5 high. But the gold market has been so strong over the trend over the last number of months. The last few sessions, the TBI has been quite boring. It's been a very low volatility. The range has been fairly small. If anything, we can speak to some sort of potentially kind of indecision, but keep in mind, we're still not too far away from making a 7.5 for your high, so the sentiment is still clearly bullish and the outlook is still quite positive. If you do press on higher from here, we could be looking at it back towards 1789, 1790, and if you go beyond that, then the kind of big psychological number of $80,000 will then come into the fold. If you do have a pullback, then if you take out the recent lows here of late June in its 1747, it could put us back on track to this blue line here, the 50 moving average in 1729, and we can see nicely on a few occasions that metric acted as support, so if you saw buyers enter the fold previously at the 50 moving average, it's likely we could see buyers enter the fold should we retest the moving average in the near term, but obviously there are no guarantees. Thank you for listening to this video. Stay safe, have a good training week, and good luck.