 Good morning and welcome to today's products and focus and very much the two things we're going to be talking about this morning is The true value of crude oil as you might be able to tell by the title of this video and also the Chinese GDP figures So actually let's kick start things off with that with with crude and my rather sensationalist headline there And this is actually coming through a number of the news wires this morning So you know obviously you got WTI and you got Brent so you got two different types of crude They both have slightly different purities one is slightly better than the other for certain forms of industry There's actually a huge amount of other crude oil contracts out there Which are traded all across the world and what we're going to do right now is focus on some of the American contracts So you've got a refinery in North Dakota that actually is charging oil producers to take their oil to refine it and They're actually charging 50 cents per barrel and there's for a very specific very sulfur rich type of crude oil And in that area that's actually really tough to refine But it does give you a bit of an idea about how bad that some things are for some refineries When some of us some oil producers when you actually have to pay someone to take your oil and And refine it for you and you actually are making a loss on each one of those barrels that are coming in No, obviously they refine it and they and the output means they still get some profit But there's no there's no positive There's no net positive on the barrel of crude as you pass it across as there is with most other forms of oil out there In fact, there's another refinery in In Kansas, I believe where they only pay the refinery are only paying $12 50 cents for a barrel of oil as well So the true value of oil it depends on their in the region that that your rim But obviously you have the global contracts WTI and Brent crude that are widely quoted in the press But depending on where you go in America as a prime example You can get substantially less and that kind of maybe she gives you an idea about how bad the energy sector is in that part Of the world and how close how teetering on the hedge some of these companies are should the pains still come so less about those those minor contracts WTI this morning actually has been pushing up high on the back of those Chinese GDP figures, which came in at 6.8% That's the first time China has been below 7% GDP growth since 2009 and that was just a little bit after the financial crisis So pretty much broadly in line with expectations retail sales were slightly lower than expected the same with industrial output for China But the market has collectively taken a sigh of relief that it wasn't as bad as expected Now the truth is guys and we've talked about this before and in these sessions the credibility of the Chinese numbers really has to be called into question You know, they're not quite as transparent as As what you would get in Europe or the or the US or under such a close scrutiny because you can't really question it that much So from my from my own perspective It seems slightly convenient that these figures came in broadly in line with expectations at a time where it was absolutely Essential that they did because if they came in really negative the impact to the markets would be quite severe however, the markets have taken it as a Nice boost. You've got the Germany 30 was up 2% first thing this morning quite a big Chinese proxy the the US 30 up about 200 points and the UK 100 up one about 1.6% The thing is China actually has a lot of gas left in the tank. Should there be a whole bunch of downturn In that area their base rate of interest rates is over 4% They got still quite a lot of money in the bank this table still can do a lot with you on if you look at Europe and the US There really isn't that that same room from it for maneuver So China is obviously still a big concern But I slow down and China can be tackled with with a lot of a lot of instruments that the People's Bank can deal with Is if we start to have a little bit more pressure in the eurozone there's very little they can do to To fight against that pain. So that's where where the big concerns are So we'll see how things pan out, but let's about the fundamentals Let's talk a little bit more about the technicals and we're going to go straight into the US 30 first thing as ever So let's have a look at things from a technical perspective So 77% of seem to marks clients are currently short on the US 30. You can see we have bounced off that 16,000 level and a lot of that has come from the Chinese GP figures We do have the ZDW business report coming out of Germany later on today, but we'll talk about that in a little second So you can see a very strong bullish and guffin pattern, but at the top range top end of this range today The RSI has crossed the 30% level That's how that's a below signal and the slow slow stochastic has not yet crossed a 20% level But it's not that far away from it right now Moving quite quickly on to the UK 100 similar bounce commodity markets They've done quite well, even though the US dollar has has also rallied commodities of bounce in the back of the of the macro data from China Very strong bullish and guffin pattern Stopping shy of 58, 82 just maybe breaking through it right now 88% of seems to marks clients are currently long So they must surely be very happy today You do have a kind of a bullish crossover and the slow stochastic there to look forward to as well Japan 225 strong bounce similar most global equity markets have this big massive candle first thing this morning 17182 is the potential resistance level which we're at right now You do have a bi-signal on the RSI and you're getting close to it in a slow stochastic as well Moving on to dollar yen dollar yen has 57% Sellers so I guess our traders aren't very sure what to do We're a little bit far away from the next potential resistance at 118 spot 33 You got a bullish cross on the market just about to happen Billish crossover in the RSI and the slow stochastic so all in all should we be able to break through 118 spot 33? That would be quite impressive, but we might be capped that 21 period SMA Though one thing to think about is the move that we're seeing on equities right now You know risk is back on for now. There are a large number of other traders out there that might see this as an opportunity to Go short. Okay, so I guess the question is what's next? What's the major bit wasn't the next major bit of news that's going to impact the markets But we'll talk about that in a second. That's where we are with dollar yen moving on to West Texas crude a Lot of uncertainty right there 33% of seem seem markets clients currently short show a lot of indecision We do have a bullish engulfing pattern so far this morning, but it's hardly a gigantic candle We are in the middle of two ranges. We're far away from potential resistance So I would say if you were looking for something Kind of short-term you could take the tip of this candle here and say that's a potential resistance 29 spots 66 which is pretty much what we are right now moving on to gold Gold as I said before it's falling a little bit of a favor for as a safe haven asset Dolly ends a better proxy in that regard, but we are down a potential support at 1,085 we do have a bullish crossover a golden cross and the moving averages the other technicals are relatively neutral We could be trading between these two ranges right here, but for now 1,085 is a strategic level just below that are the two moving averages So it should be supporting in the short term 58% of CTC markets clients are currently long So finishing up with the FX pairs your old dollar still reversing into inside this Potential descending triangle formation and not really that excited by your dollar until it breaks out one side or the other 65% of seem to marks clients are currently short and finishing up with GBP USD This poor FX pair has been getting absolutely blasted the last number of sessions. It has had a Deadcat bounce potentially of one spot 42 30. The thing is this this is just a relief rally There's not any positive GBP data out there In fact, the dollar is kind of rampant across most other FX pairs right now If we break below one spot 42 30 You are looking at a potential move that much further down. Let me just jump on to onto a monthly chart there God, it's not looking too good once we break through that level to be honest because they're there Literally is no other support levels to look forward to so I really hope that the Sterling manages to Keep a little bit of strength. Otherwise, it's gonna be getting a lot more expensive For me to go and haul the and for you guys at home as well But nevertheless seems to marks clients 92% short So they're obviously expecting a little bit more pain to look forward to so let's see what happens. Well guys Actually before I finish up. I don't want to forget about jumping on to my mark calendar We do still have that ZDW business port if you're trading your dollar or the DAX you don't want to miss that That's a 10 AM UK time fast forward on to Wednesday. You do have you still have us CPI and housing starts as well Well guys, thank you very much for watching best of luck for the trading I'll enjoy me again tomorrow to find out what happened next. Thank you very much and goodbye