 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of TheAxisTrade.com. Weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a really good trading week. There was some really, really good value. Really, really good value. We'll talk about that in a second. But it really is amazing. And this is kind of, again, the whole purpose of our, at least YouTube platform, is to kind of, you know, show everything as it's happening. Okay. It's nothing, a hindsight. There's nothing, you know, to talk about, you know, what if in 2020, it's about what we think is happening. And our job as traders is put ourselves in a position to have an opinion and wait for that opinion to get validated. So if you guys remember last weekend update, okay, that Friday I did something, the last Friday of last week, I did something I haven't done in years was completely being idle. Okay. I didn't put on a single trade last Friday, the previous Friday. There was no value. And if you guys remember that whole week was all contracting channels. And I believe that, again, if you watch, kind of watch the video throughout the week, you kind of know I was talking about kind of this rounding top that I felt that, you know, it wasn't something imminent. It wasn't going to be Armageddon type of like back test. But I did believe that the market was heavy. Okay. I believe that a lot of names just did not participate in this rally, your Amazons of the World, you know, your Amazons of the World, Facebook for the most part, we'll talk about that Facebook, you know, a lot of names are just very, very, very lagging to what we saw in the market action. Of course, you have the testers of the world, they did very, very well, the beyonds, but a lot of names, they were very sour. And going into this week, I knew distribution only was going to take three, four days and kind of Friday, last Friday was, you know, the kind of the last point of the bottom of inactivity. So I wanted to make sure going into this week that number one, well, the market kind of played out to what I believe was going to happen. Again, it's not about being right. Again, if you look at the indexes towards the end of the week, everything's down 1%. Again, it wasn't a call. Okay. It's nothing about being right or wrong. I wanted to make sure going into every single trading week that I'm trading eyes wide open, that I'm going into every single trading week, kind of really understanding that, hey, if I'm wrong here, it's not going to be a paper cut. So I want to make sure we put everybody in a position that we are seeing the market the right way, not the way we want to see it. Well, not our reality. The reality is in front of us. And I was talking about this rounding top. And then all of a sudden you came in and you started seeing all this news of this coronavirus. Now, when I first heard the name, the coronavirus, I was like, Corona, is there something wrong with the beer? Weird name. But it started to getting pretty serious. Okay. And you started seeing case after case after case. And when the market gets really, really nervous, whether it's macro wise, politically, health wise, there's going to be a bio strike at some point. Now, the question is, how does this virus, again, this virus now has 56 total cases of death, I think three in the United States and I think 2000 cases in China. So there is a fear. There is a global fear that, oh my God, what happens if it just spreads macro and you're getting it from Wichita, Kansas to Paris, France. And that is the fear. And initially that brought down the market. Now, when you go back into the last, you know, three or four major health scares around the world. If you guys remember when I was living still in Brooklyn, there was that zika. You guys remember the zika, the zika scare? It was those mosquitoes. I remember, you know, walking down in Brooklyn, I remember there was spraying. There was spraying the air for the airplanes were flying. There was spraying the air for the zika virus. You know, people were scared. And then you had SARS and then you had Ebola recently. You guys remember the Ebola scare, right? The Ebola scare. And the one thing, the common denominator of all these fears, okay, all these macro fears that the CDC and their right to do so kind of put on the table is number one, it kind of gets controlled. And number two, when you're talking about the market, if you look at all those scares, think about where we are, right? With zika, Ebola, SARS, right? All these recent health scares. And if you look up, the market is at pretty much all time highs. So short term, yeah, of course, you're going to get a lot of fear. People are going to be a little bit on the sidelines because they want to see how much control they can actually get of this virus and the ultimate end game. And we don't know that yet. But if you look at from the point of speaking from historical references where the stock market was when this health scare came out to where we are now, the market kind of engulfs everything. Now, again, we don't know the full effects. We don't know the ramifications. We're sitting here with our fingers crossed and saying, well, hopefully, this will play out exactly the same way from every single market scare. But again, we don't know that. Okay, we don't know that. So short term, you could feel a softness in the market. But long term, again, unless this is something like the next coming, you know, unfortunately, the HIV virus is something like that, I think the market eventually, whether it's this week, the next week, whatever the case may be, I think eventually if they can isolate it and again, there's so many people that are unfortunately quarantined throughout the whole area of China that eventually the market will do the same thing that the market does for everything. Okay, eventually the market will become numb to this news. It'll just be a headline. And just like Ebola, like the last really significant health scare, the market kind of pushes it out a bit. But it's not important again, you know, so many people died of the Ebola virus. But again, it was at the end of the day, it was contained. Okay, it was contained. And now, if you go back to actually remembering, try to remember offhand without doing any research, nobody really has an opinion of what happened in Ebola unless you really, really followed it. So I can imagine again, this is just all speculation, obviously, I can imagine that the coronavirus will eventually be contained. You'll see the CDC, it's this week, next week, the following week, at least the following weeks, give you more concrete information about it, how they're trying to prevent it, or at least trying to prevent it from spreading. And I think, again, based on historical value where the recent health scares were, I think the market will engulf it and the market goes higher. And if you look at from the point of reference from the trading aspect this week, the market was really, really good. Okay, last week, a lot of contraction. And again, not every single week, you need to learn a lesson. Sometimes when you have experienced the market, again, I'm going on my 21st year, you don't need to be validated. You don't need to be tapped on the shoulder to say, hey, great job, you identified, blah, blah, blah. It's not about that. It's again, putting you in a situation that you're trading eyes wide open, not eyes wide shut. And I think this week's action, despite a little bit of a pullback in the market, again, when you talk about a pullback, you're talking about 1% across the board. And again, you had a pretty big move on Friday, but did anybody really notice? Right? And that's a very, very fair question. When you have still a lot of speculation money, especially in stocks like Tesla, which, again, it's breaking up more marriages than Heidi Fleister. If you guys remember who Heidi Fleister was, right? The Hollywood madam. So Tesla is going absolutely nuts. BYND has caught a second life and it's acting very, very well. You have stocks like Netflix. So we talked about Netflix in the beginning of towards the end of the week last week about kind of, it wasn't great, you know, it wasn't great earnings, but it wasn't bad earnings. But it really does show you that unless a company comes out with really horrific numbers, it really does show you how strong the market is because unless the market, you know, they tell the market, well, growth has completely slowed down. We're going chapter 11. The market is giving, especially every high riser, every beta name, every darling, right? They're giving them the benefit of the Dow. And you could see how much speculation money there still is. And again, this is with a global potential macro health scare. So overall, when you look at the tape this week, very, very strong, right? Despite, you know, despite the health scare, the Nasdaq 100 accused, they orderly, and this was orderly. Again, Thursday, I had no idea the market was down until I looked up and I was like, wow, the Dow's down 174, five points. I didn't know yesterday till about lunchtime. Okay, I didn't say, wow, the market's actually selling off pretty, you don't realize this because how much individual speculation money is going through, whether it's all these coronavirus names or some beta names. It just very, very strong tape. And again, when you look at the macro view, again, yeah, did we have this blow off top that we talked about Wednesday? We did. Okay, did we get the back test, whether the back test was technical or health related? Again, I don't care about being right. It's not about being right. Again, understanding what's in front of us. Again, it's like walking into a dark alley. Would you randomly walk into a dark alley? No, you have to figure out the safest way of travel. So that's all we're trying to do. So going into this week, again, yeah, we have a line in the sand for this week. Okay, if you look at the Nasdaq 100, we're looking at this 221-60s area, which is the rising 10-day moving average. And again, if you believe in the theory, any guys who have been in the live webinar for years, you kind of know that if the 10-day moving average for me is the birth of the trait to the upside, well, any close below the 10-day moving average will be the birth of the trait to the downside. So this is a pretty clean line in the sand going into this week. Again, obviously, the China names got hit really hard, right? You had Baidu hit really, really hard. You had LK who's been a monster flyer, big, big monster flyer, got hit very, very hard. Alibaba, right? Destroyed. And somebody was laughing about it and they said, well, maybe the Chinese people are going to stay inside and watch Netflix and then people realize there is no Netflix in China, but there is the Netflix of China, which is IQ. And obviously, again, they didn't care that this was the Netflix of China, that people are going to stay home and watch movies. It got hit as well. So you had a macro effect on a lot of names. But again, you also had a lot of really, really good movers this week, a lot of strength. Tesla, again, is a beast. I forgot the name of the firm, Pierre or something. They came out at $800 price target this week and normally people would say, who the hell cares? But they were the highest price target a year ago on Tesla. So the fact that they had a $500 price on 5.20 whatever it was last year and it came to fruition, all of a sudden they became credible. It wasn't just a random boutique firm that came out with a study. They were credible and they took the stock to $600. Now, again, the question going into this week is how much legs or how much legs does this coronavirus have macro-wise? And the question going into this week, because again, Netflix kicked off earnings season, which again, you might not have the greatest earnings in the world, but again, the scoreboard is the scoreboard. You can see the stock is starting to break out again, would obviously align in the sand back to the upside this week as well. So the questions going into this week, number one, you have all these beta names reporting. You've got Amazon, right? You have Amazon who's been a miserable trading stock. Anybody who's been trading Amazon for the last, even say six months, okay? You had your two-day run, right? You had your two-day run, which was a magnificent run. And then the stock did absolutely nothing for the next month. And the one thing that you've seen as the markets rally, okay, the Amazon reports end of this week, you're seeing literally on a daily basis, as soon as the stock dips, really aggressive call buying coming in. And I'm not talking about $15,000, guys are coming in for the last two, three weeks, hundreds of thousands, millions of dollars of out-of-the-money calls, the 1950s, the 2000s, the 2100s. So there is a lot of big, big money being placed on Amazon into earnings. Now the question is, do they know something? Are they very, very confident in that position? Or again, are they just sipping Kool-Aid and hoping the God that Amazon actually wakes up? Again, one of the questions that will be answered this week. You have Tesla, right? They're coming out on earnings. Again, everybody's waiting for Tesla. One of the biggest runs I can remember seeing in a very, very long time. And again, I've said this over the years in nausea, okay? Tesla was a great trader this week, both long and short. Especially Thursday. Thursday there was two longs and two shorts within four different channels, which is an amazing, amazing thing to watch. But the one thing that I will say this to the perma bulls and the perma bears, I trade channels, okay? I don't care which way the stock goes. If anybody's watching this for the first time, I want you to really understand it. For me, it doesn't make a difference. I cheer for Tesla, right? I cheer for Elon Musk. I personally think this is the greatest stock ever, okay? Ever. I'm doing this for almost 21 years. So I have a bias that I love the stock, but I don't have a bias of which way I want to see the stock go. And it's just amazing. It's still so mind-boggling to see such hatred from both bulls and bears in the stock. If you just used all that energy and actually realized that you're missing out, literally, on one of the greatest two-sided traders in our generation, you have spent a lot better energy and your money would be better off than sitting there and bitching and moaning about Elon's a fraud and the stock's going to 1,000. The stock's going to 200. The stock's going to 10,000. The stock's going to zero. Just trade the price action. Nobody cares what you think. Does anybody really think what you think? This is the stock market. It's either going to go higher or it's going to go lower. Your job is to make sure that you're taking full advantage of the potential move. So the idea that you're sitting and wasting all this energy, brain cells and everything in between, bitching and moaning about some guy on the internet talking about, well, the stock's going higher, man. You're an idiot. Well, the stock's going lower, man. You're an idiot. Well, no, you're the idiot because you're burning all your mental equity, trying to convince yourself that you are right. Big question. A lot of buyers came in ahead of Tesla's earnings. That will be obviously the big catalyst this week, the notable bet that I saw this week. I believe somebody bought $2.7 million worth of premium of the February 21st, 625 calls. That was the one that stood out of my mind, $2.7 million. Again, is he not uncertain? We'll see. We'll see what happens with Tesla. Roku, right? Roku's been a phenomenal trader. Even though it doesn't look like anything, right? Again, if you don't trade Roku, Roku's a great trading stock. It's starting to get up there. I've been trading Roku now for about a couple of years now. Ever since it made its first move, Roku is really turning into something really good. I just want this thing to get out of its range. It's been sitting in this bottom range here for a long time and the top range for a long time. But again, if you trade channels, you can see so much really good value in Roku. So the question going into this week, right, and have to check earnings, well, is this finally going to break out of a channel? Here's the bottom channel here, a very, very specific channel. Here's the top channel, a very, very specific channel. The question is, which way it's going to go? Again, at this point, I don't care which way it goes. Just pick a decision, pick a side and start going because it could be very, very good. Let me see what else I want to talk about here. And I think beyond, okay? Beyond in the last couple of weeks has been great. Again, we started talking about the option order flow all the way down here, right? And the thing is with beyond, even if you've never traded beyond, let me just kind of share the light on something. They have the most amazing PR department, okay? They know at the perfect time when to release a PR. And we started noticing about a month ago, a month and a half ago, down here on the 72, 73 areas, we started seeing coal buying coming in. The 79s, the 85s, the 96s, the 110s, and they're like, what the hell is going on? The stock's at $73. Yada, yada, yada, stock goes to 110 bucks. I believe they come out with earnings tomorrow. I have to double check. I believe they come out with earnings after the close. I have to double check. Again, I might be confusing symbols. But you started seeing this week, right? As the stock was consolidating, you started seeing this week, a monster buy came in at the 170 coles. Okay, keep in mind, the stock's $119. Monster buy came in at the 170 coles. You started seeing short-term expiration coal buyers in the 150s, 155s, and the 170s. It's going to be very, very interesting to see what happens, right? What happens after earnings as well. But again, you have to like what you're seeing in the market. I mean, you really, really do. Again, we don't know what the end game will be in this health scare. Hopefully, it'll be nothing and it will resemble what we saw with all the previous health scares in the market will kind of resume. But again, I think these beta names have to show up this week. I mean, they really do. First of all, again, how smart money's positioning. Look at Intel. Look at the run on Intel, right? Look at the run on Intel. There was massive call buying ahead of earnings. One guy even bought 40,000 coles, right? You think he knew something? Okay, so the option market is really dictating potential movements in the markets. And we're starting to see, again, kind of got kind of review big buyers ahead of Amazon's earnings, big buyers ahead of Tesla's earnings, really big buyers ahead of Beyond's earnings. So again, the speculation money's there. The fuel to the market is still very, very strong. The only thing that's going to derail it is how significant and how aggressive this health scare could be. If you look at the week, really good week. Really, really good week. If you've been watching our feed, again, everything that I'm putting in is in real time. There's nothing edited or... These are the pivots. Are you going to go or not going to go? So Friday I traded Beyond and Netflix off the open. Netflix was great. Netflix was really, really good. Team I didn't get. So we'll talk about these pivots. So BYND, let's talk about the pivots. So we talked about this pre-market, this 124.5. Here's a whole 124.5, 125 area. I said there's a shot. It gets to 127. The reason why I said 127, because look at the 50-day supply. It was 126.86. Look at the stock stopped. Within 25 cents of supply. So that was a really big, big move. Netflix was the big one for me on Friday. So 350 needs to build. 352 is pre-market highs. So that's important as well. And I said there's a shot. It gets to 360. Again, here is the 350. Here is the 350. These two candles right here. Look at the top of these candles. 350, 350. 350, 195. So 352 is the pre-market highs. And once it broke, once it got above the 52, the stock just exploded. And stopped right under 360. So really, really big move before it reversed. I still like it. If the market wakes up this week, I definitely still like it. There will definitely be a sneakier pivot than the 360 macro in this place somewhere. But so that was good. Tesla obviously never got up there. Never got up to the 582 area. Team was a big mover. Team was a big mover indeed. We talked about the 147, right? So here's the 147 into supply pre-market. And once it got above 147, started building. Again, stocks go from supply to supply to demand to demand. So it took out 147 and went right to the next supply zone, almost 151. So big move there as well. And this one I missed. This one I missed. I was already at lunchtime. I joked around the previous day as I was charting. And I posted a picture of my son. He was doing a Skype session with his Spanish tutor. And I said, hey, daddy, I think Facebook's about to roll over. And this was actually the only beta name. If you looked at the chart coming into Friday's session, this was actually the only beta name, right? This was the only beta name right into support here that I knew this 219 area was going to be important. And I said, there's a shot. It gets down to 215. It didn't quite get down there. But 219 held twice if it builds below can flush. I unfortunately missed this trade. But again, here is the move for you guys who did take it. 219-12, 219-27. It broke the 219 and went all the way down to 216. So it didn't quite get to 215 and change. But it got to 216. Congratulations for you guys who caught that as well. And I think that's it. Expedion never got up to 15. ISRG never won red to green. And obviously, Roku never got up to 36 as well. Netflix again, fire, blah, blah, blah. Team is flying. Like I said, 360, 362 potential went to 359.85. Facebook again, crashed. Let me see. I think that's about it, right? And there was a sneaky pivot. I said, if they could get back to 354, it could wake up. But obviously, never did. So it was a good session, good quality session. I think going into this week, again, I want to be open-minded. Again, this will be, again, the macro. This will be the macro kind of line in the sand for the bulls. But again, I think this week will definitely be more predicated based on earnings. There's so many companies coming out. You got a Tesla and beyond and Amazon and Facebook and Microsoft. So you have a lot of stuff on the dock and I think that will definitely drive the action. So this is the area we want to watch for macro clothes, 221, 60s on the cues. Let me give you guys some ideas that I do like. Dollar Tree looks like crap. Dollar Tree does look like crap. It started breaking down. This is the lowest close in this whole move here. Watch for continuation. If Dollar Tree can start building below 87, 20, 87, you should get more downside. Verisign was a big, big flyer. But again, just like everything else, like everything else, again, you get an inverted hammer. That is a sign for softness to come. It traded right to the rising 10-day moving average and the same case scenario that we're talking about for the cues is the same case scenario we're talking about Verisign. Again, if you believe in the theory that stocks trade from supply to supply and demand to demand, well, here's a 10-day demand if it confirms, it goes all the way down to here. Keep an eye on Verisign. If it starts building below that 212 area, if it builds below 212 area, it is a shot. It gets down to 209, 207. Keep an eye on that. ULTA actually does not look bad at all. Keep an eye on this thing. If it starts reclaiming this supply here, if it starts reclaiming this 277 this week and confirms a 50-day moving average, you could get the next leg up. Again, this is assuming the market doesn't fall off a cliff. Again, knock on wood. Let me give you some other non-beta names. I kind of like this KRNT, right? Kind of like this KRNT. Keep an eye on this thing tomorrow. If it starts confirming Friday's price action, you could test the high here, roughly 42. That looks pretty good. MCFT, not sure what this thing is, but keep an eye on this thing. If it starts building 18, 18, 15, you could start getting the next leg up. Again, for tomorrow, for all you guys who are trading with us tomorrow, please come to Morning Strategy early. It starts up at 9 a.m. We'll obviously talk about Tesla and Beyond and Amazon and Netflix and Roku. I'm definitely watching Roku this week. The most important thing, guys, stay safe. Have an opinion. Wait for confirmation. Let price action tell you which way the next move is going to come. Again, we're not in the guessing business. We're not that smart. Again, me, the self-proclaimed king of the idiots, I know my limitations. I'm not that bright. Trust me. It's very, very important. We let dictate price action what happens next. Guys, God bless everybody. Have an awesome, awesome Sunday. With God's help, I'll see you all in the field tomorrow. Take care, guys. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? Straight off his personal watch list? Unlock our free PS60 vault where you'll get nightly updates on pivot opportunities we're watching for the next day's session. Click the link in the description to get started today.