 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got a huge game coming up this week in college football with Penn State taking on Ohio State And yeah, it's a you know put a tight spread there in Ohio State for this game We're gonna break down that game break down other key games across week eight with Dr. Ed Feng getting his read on this week's games and letting you know where he sees value at Fandall sports book This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research. My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research Joined here as mentioned by Dr. Ed Feng find his work on Twitter at the power bank check them out at the power bank Common Ed thriller obviously coming up this week of that big game between Penn State and Ohio State. How are you doing today? I'm doing great. It's actually me a couple week for me because I'm wearing my new maze Michigan hat Because I feel a little bit bad calling them overrated at number two this preseason right now They're number one in my college football rankings. That probably has less to do with them I mean they've played really well the last three weeks and we should be incredible for that It also has to do with the fall off of other teams But you know, they're number one and so so far that's not looking good I actually there's a long way to go and I may turn out to be right that Michigan was was overrated at number two in The nation but right now they look pretty good. So I thought it was a chance to to grab some merch and And we'll have we'll have a little bit more tomorrow for the NFL show. So obviously you're there in Ann Arbor When you're talking to people like do they give you do they let you know that you were a bit too low on them Entering the year delay. I kind of have you let you hear a little better now I think everyone's a little bit cautious at this point in the season I think everyone knows that they should be not at all heading in Penn State and Penn State in Ohio State are gonna be tough at the end of the year No one's too worried about going up to East Lansing this weekend as they should not be But yeah, look, we are everyone knew we were gonna wait till those last three games and So no no no smack talking yet, but there probably will be so you got the Wolverines playing well You got the Lions playing well The Detroit Tigers played well down the stretch at least their pitching was awesome for them So like I feel like it's kind of a good time to be Michigan sports fan right now Absolutely. I mean we're gonna gonna let the piston screw everything up in about a week here But yeah, we'll take what we can get right Yeah, I really do I mean I actually probably well, I don't know the Lions defense past defense is still pretty pretty bad But yeah, but they they are pretty good at the one thing that is most sticky in NFL And that's throwing the football when you got the best quarterback in football and what more can you ask for? I think that's we know why that's happening. I did take the Lions money line this week We'll talk about that game tomorrow though, and I could pick your brain Whether that was a dumb bet or not We're gonna dive into week number eight in college football here in just one second But first snap into action It's NFL season with fan dual America's number one sportsbook right now new customers get $200 and bonus bets Guaranteed when you play say $5 bet that is $200 and bonus bets win or lose if you've been thinking about joining fan dual There's no better time to get in on the action. 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Now we're going to talk about how to stay Penn State here just one second the first ed Wanted to talk to you a bit more broadly because it seems like in more recent years There's been a bunch of late week movement in the betting markets where Saturday morning things might move A pretty decent amount potentially across key numbers. So I want to ask you from like your perspective Have you found yourself getting more value on game days? And you did in years past or Should we still have the same respect for the markets for markets getting more efficient over time as we have in the past? I I don't bet sides and totals on game day. I don't think that's a good idea I actually don't really have an experience with it So I can't say whether you're gonna get more value on game day. My Suspicion is no you will not I highly recommend betting early in the week I bust my butt to get my member numbers up on Sunday. So People who are subscribed to my site can get those early numbers and Yeah, I mean, I think I think that is the time to bet. It's a little bit different with props Yeah, you know, I think there's a lot of there's a lot of public action on some of these props big teams Like Michigan running backs like Blake Whorum Let's talk about that a little bit more later. If you're betting those on Saturday morning, I think that's great I think there's probably a lot of value on unders there letting some of these these props go up up up and up and There's potentially some value hitting the under Yeah, I heard you talking to Rob Pazzola on the football analytics show last week about you'll get like some action You know, there are a lot of spots that can move markets and if they move it the wrong way or move it too far You can potentially buy back on the opposing side. So like I think in the prop department. That's a spot where You know, you'll see these bet these like tweets on Twitter about how like oh 99% of the bets are on Patrick Mahomes over 291 and a half passing yards, whatever it may be it's like if that much if that percentage of action is on the over and It increases like there is always gonna be a chance that you're gonna get money on or value on the under So I feel like to me if you're looking for game day bats unders on a lot of props is probably going to be Your best route for doing so Absolutely, I feel like the NFL prop market is probably getting sharper. So it's less a Case where the markets is gonna be wildly over on someone But I do think you're gonna get that in college football I remember like I bet under a hundred and one receiving yards on Quinton Johnson in the national championship game, right? Like he had had that just like hugely explosive game against Michigan I don't know how it moved, but I certainly bet the under I certainly liked it and yet three receiving yards against, you know Probably the best defense in college football history. I do feel like there's gonna be a lot of that You know, like I remember Rufus Peawad. He was on my podcast talking about how he bet Super Bowl props Actually, no, not mine. I heard this on somewhere else But his tip was like, you know, if you want to bet an under wait until game day because you know, probably bet it up for the Super Bowl I think we'll probably see less of that in the NFL as that market gets sharper But I think we're gonna see I think I think that is a good strategy for college football right for sure and You don't have as many I don't know sharp spots giving out intelligent bats and stuff like that in college football as you have With the NFL it's a more saturated market So I think that would make sense for sure So if you're looking for game day action, check out the prop market and see if there are some spots where the under to you Looks pretty attractive Let's talk now about that big game on Saturday between Penn State and Ohio State right now in Fandall Sportsbook Ohio State is a four and a half point favorite in the total in this game is 45 and a half and Ed Defense here could be pretty good Penn State lights out on defense so far this year But Ohio State has done the exact same thing So can Penn State do enough here to keep this game close and potentially cover the four and a half point spread? Yeah, I think they can I mean this is obviously a huge huge game and There's actually some really interesting things going on with explosive plays here If you think back to last year Ohio State's defense was really good most of the year They were actually pretty incredible the success rate numbers they got to that Michigan game at the end and Gave up a bunch of explosive plays to Michigan and lost It was a year when you looked at the year They were I don't know I think top 10 when you look at a just a success rate But they were maybe in the 60s when you looked at yards per play It's actually kind of the opposite right now I have them 19th in defense in success rate and actually first in yards per play and At this point in the season. We're halfway through the season I just tend to trust the success rate a little bit more I do not throw out the yards per play because I do feel like there is some signal there, but And I think this Ohio State defense is really good. I think that was a prior I think you asked me about that before I still think they're really good I mean, I think they're overall probably even better than last year But if you're using yards play and saying this is the best defense in the nation, I Probably think you're wrong about that So and then Penn State, they are kind of the exact opposite On on offense. They are 6 15th in success rate and 60th in yards per play So there's been like this huge lack of explosive plays For Penn State and you can actually kind of narrow it down a little bit more to the run game Nicola Singleton, K-Tron Allen, two super talented running backs that everyone had high expectations coming into the season They have not they've done really poorly on the explosive plays Their rush offense is 31st in success rate. That's pretty good Probably expect even better for Penn State, but it's still pretty good They're 98th in yards per carry adjusted for opponent You know and for example, you know Singleton had 6.8 yards per carry last year 4.1 this season, you know, maybe some of that is the run blocking PFF has them 48 out of 133 turning in terms of run block grade So they could probably do a little bit better But and it's hard to say like hey Penn State hasn't made explosive plays So maybe they'll do some against a pretty talented Ohio State defense But I do think the you know how states defense isn't as good as we think I think Penn State's offense is a little bit better than we think my numbers actually really like the over on this I mean I'm this all week. I don't like even when I saw this initially I I just don't really see like a 25 to 21 game here. I think there's gonna be more points than that I Also know that a lot of other sharp people do like the under in this game and I want to respect that So I will definitely lean over here. It this actually just came down a point this morning But I will definitely mean on the over and then, you know, my model has Basically these two teams rated about the same and it says Ohio State by about a field goal In this game. I do think there's a little bit of value in Penn State I think this is an upcoming. I think this is an up up and coming team. I think this is a high ceiling team and by the underlying numbers they look, you know pretty good and With Ohio State like I think they're good, but you know, and I actually like the offense There's so much to impact there too. Like, you know, their offense Kind of has been terrible running the ball and when you dig into why, you know They're actually third in the nation in PFF run blocking grade So it all kind of comes down to the running backs and all three of their top running backs are on the injured list when I checked Earlier this week. So there's all kinds of stuff going there. But like I do think they can throw the ball Obviously the receivers are great. And I know a lot of people don't necessarily like McCord and he's not CJ Stroud But I think he's pretty good. I think he can lead this offense But they're also going up against the number one pass defense when I look at passing success rate adjusted for opponent. I Think that all kind of points towards the under for me and Then yeah, I guess with the side, you know, my my my model has it and I feel like, you know Penn State's kind of done a little bit more To to make me think that they're gonna reach their ceiling and Ohio State's probably a little bit down from where I expected them I still think they're a really good team. I think these are both two really good teams But but I would lean pens Penn State at a plus four and a half Now you're talking about how you expect that the Penn State offense is a bit better than we think you were talking about how the Ohio State defense may not be quite as good as they played and Your overall lean was towards the over in this game any interest for you in checking out the Penn State team total, you know something like that to kind of Get a situation where you are potentially taking advantage of the fact that maybe Penn State's a bit undervalued Offensively the Ohio State defense hasn't as many explosives. Maybe they should Right now the Penn State team total is 20 and a half over as minus one or two Do you think that's a right you would consider as a way to take advantage of the two assumptions you've discussed? Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I do like the idea of Conville house they go in there under what we expect them as well Given just that Penn State's defense is so much better at protect defending against the past in the run But you know, for example, let's see. I mean my model has Penn State with about 27 points. So Definitely a lot of value there. I Think that's probably a good way to bet it as well Okay So looking at the markets right now fangirl sportsbook as mentioned the team total for Penn State is 20 and a half over is minus one or two The total for the game is 45 and a half over for that is minus 110 Penn State plus four and a half is also Minus 110 the under as you are the total as you mentioned did come down It was 46 and a half is now 45 and a half How far would that need to come down for you to bite and actually lock in the full game over a 40 The full game over. Yeah, I mean, I would keep an eye on the weather like the the wind is gonna be up like 13 14 miles per hour So that's a factor too. I Don't know how much like I mean, I guess if the weather report gets worse. It could come down a little bit I just still think that's just a massively small total. I Mean I would bet it now. I Would bet it now. Yeah, okay So a lot of different ways to bet this game depending on kind of your feel for this one If you want to take the over you can you want to take Penn State team total you can if you want to take Penn State plus the points You can do that as well So overall pretty fun game with a lot of ways to potentially get exposure to it at fangirl sportsbook Let's talk about the second game where it's break down for today. That is Tennessee at Alabama right now right now Alabama eight and a half point favorite total for this one is at 48 and a half and Had we talked a couple of times about Alabama struggles this year, but they've managed to get by and The market seems to reflect their issues where you know, not heavily favored here against Tennessee team that is has its flaws Is this a good buy low spot in your mind for Alabama or is the market properly valuing them where it has this game right now? Yeah, I'm not really sure. This is like a buy low spot like I would have made this Alabama minus eight and a half this preseason and I feel like we have Kind of downgraded Alabama quite a bit right the offense is really not what we have expected. They are It's 45th when I look at adjusted success rate They've kind of been feasting on big plays as well No, we're has been able to pop a couple big ones. He did last week against Arkansas The defense has been amazing. So so that's obviously pretty good But like I feel like we have had a kind of significant downgrade on Alabama and For Tennessee, you know The offense has been really disappointing They're out of the top 25 in a lot of my metrics Jill Milton's been Disappointing the past offense based on my justice success rate. They're like close to average. They're about 58th So that's been bad But the defense is the run game has been good and the defense has been really good their fifth in my adjusted success rate So we're really kind of disappointing in Tennessee's offense But the defense is kind of made up for it. I feel like they've been ground downgraded less and I feel like that's legit So, you know, my model has Alabama by six and a half here. I think there's a little bit of value I would definitely lean towards Tennessee if you're if you're gonna bet this a plus Eight and a half. It was plus nine and a half on Sunday. So I do feel it's like it's coming down I still feel like there's a little bit of value on Tennessee The plus eight and a half is currently minus one fifteen at Fandall sports book Is that enough where it makes it more so a lean for you versus a full thing you'd want to bet personally? Yeah, no, I definitely think it's a lean. Yeah, I think I think we should still respect Alabama But I don't know. I mean we talked about last week weren't they like 51 to win the national title I feel like other parts of the market are not respecting Alabama. I would lean that way, right? Sure I'm Yeah, I would kind of lean that way as opposed to you thinking they're they're gonna come back and and And and win the SEC Okay, let's finish up here by talking about Duke at Florida State and it's a pretty fun game, too Right now market at Fandall sports book has scrolling down here It got Duke or Florida State has 13 and a half point favorites total in this game is 48 and a half right now when Florida State obviously got that big win over LSU in the season opener But since then Ed not the toughest level of competition So can they cover a nearly two touchdown spread here taking on a very respectable Duke team? Yeah, I think that kind of depends on who's playing quarterback for Duke So Florida State, you know, as you mentioned a really good performance against LSU That performance against LSU defense looks a lot worse Then it did to open up the season because that side of the football has been terrible for them Florida State was lucky to be Clemson a lot of the metrics favored Clemson in that game and Florida's State's defense kind of had a big whiff against Boston College But but otherwise Florida State's been been been really good I think what's interesting is on the other side of the ball So Ryder Leonard didn't play for Duke last week against NC State. They won 24 to 3 which seems great But it was really reliant on explosive plays. There's a long touchdown run. There was a long Pass there was long passing touchdown as well and you know Leonard's backup was 4 for 12 for 107 yards and a lot of those 107 came on one play so Yeah, look right I Think this is a pass for me of Ryder Leonard comes back and play. I think he's questionable at the backup plays I would I would definitely lean towards Florida State They do like look like one of the best teams in the nation If they're playing against a backup that was only able to generate one explosive play in the passing game last week against NC State I Would go with Florida State and we all often talk about the difference in college where a Quarterback may not move the spread as much as it would in the NFL But with Ryder Leonard who has gotten like legitimate like first round NFL drop buzz That's a very different situation most recently up in Leonard from head coach Mike Elko said that there was a chance that he plays and That could be gamesmanship, but to me saying a chance is not the most optimistic outlook So I would be a bit worried about him being able to go for this game And like you said if it's not Leonard, that's a pretty significant downgrade for Duke So if you want to bet Duke, I would not be doing it now until we have more clarity there Yeah, I mean if he if he seems doubtful at Florida State less than two touchdowns seems pretty good Yeah, absolutely. Okay. Any other spots where you see value for this weekend? Yeah, so I kind of want to talk about the the prop market because I think it's interesting in in college football so I tried in middle Blake Wharton last week simply because there was there was quite a spread This is a couple hours before the game and DraftKings had him at 99 and a half and 99 and a half is just a large number no matter how talented the player is right Blake Wharton is talented enough to make you look silly And but you know Fandle had it at I don't know 90 So there's a pretty big middle there and then I got the under at DraftKings and Fandle moved to 94 It's like well, we'll try it didn't work out He had he went well under that But it is something that you know, I think I think the under in general is the is the way to go but So anyways this week I've already bet his over at DraftKings I think we got a 85 ish and then on Sorry the over at Fandle and then DraftKings was 95, but they wouldn't let me bet anything on it So I'm waiting closer to game day. Hope that gets close to 100 So, you know like a 15 yard I mean again It's like kind of the principle that like if you want to bet an over do it earlier in the week because I do think it might go up on Fandle and then Dang it ready went up. Yeah, it's already 88 and a half. Well, there you go I mean, I did this literally like an hour ago Well, there might be some correlation is causation in the situation. I don't know I didn't really bet that much. I don't think it was me. Anyway Yeah, I think this is gonna go up I think it's gonna go up on DraftKings last week they let me bet at least Not an embarrassing amount Yeah, last week right like right before the game. So I'm gonna keep an eye on this and Yeah, I think I'm definitely gonna try to use this space when you asked me about other markets to look into the pop market As mentioned before I do think there's gonna be some value in Just looking at the market and trying to bet unders trying to look at guys who have had some explosive plays Explosive games in the previous couple weeks facing maybe a better defense and trying to bet the under and look if you ever receiver or a running back Who is prop is in the hundreds like You can probably you can probably bet the under and be profitable in general, right? The one issue that I've always had with these is I can find line shopping tools With this like in seconds for the NFL, you know, it's where I see every single Austin Eckler rushing plus receiving market at every single legal book in one place Do you have a similar tool in college football that you've been using to kind of line shop quickly? Or is it more so kind of knowing which guys you want to look for and then kind of you know Self-checking by hand each read each book that you can have access to in Michigan Yeah, I mean a couple answers that like when I'm doing props like for my newsletter for my members like NFL interception props like I mean DK always has the best price, right? So I'm usually kind of just checking up actually I'm mostly checking there because yeah It's I mean it's almost it's almost certain that they're gonna have the best price But I do use on a baited for kind of comparing props in the NFL I think I'm I'm positive. I'm pretty sure for the NFL that it's available for free. They also have the same service for college I'm not sure if it's free, but But it's there and it is useful and it actually enlightened to me that some books actually put up Interception props in college. Oh, I Don't think it was a lot of books, but I think one of them had it So yeah, definitely check out everything over at unabated. They might have a pretty good tool for that It may be a paid service. I'm not actually sure Okay, so check out the Blake Horm number see where it's at when we get to game day 88 and a half right now Fandral sportsbook Do you still like the over at 88 and a half or is that too high for you now? I mean in general, I like the under Any number getting into the 90s again? This is like a kind of thing where you can look really dumb betting the under on a talented guy like Blake Horm Right. I'll try to say that a third time before the show We will clip this part if we do clip we'll make sure to include that part in there just to just to cover your basis for you but I I But I do feel like when I was at 85 Like yeah, I think the possibility of that 14 yards and trying to mow it is It's kind of fun. So yeah, I think the overall philosophy of Overs early unders late makes a lot of sense. You can get spots where you can get like a 14-yard middle Like you said, I think that's pretty attractive overall. Alrighty, that is all that we have here for today on covering the spread And if people are looking for your newsletter, you were talking about before with a mailing out props and stuff for like that Where can they find that? Yeah, you can get my newsletter at the power rank that calm five no get Saturday. I Put someone or fell interception props in there, which I've been doing really well this year I also try to find bets from from other sharp people Also football this time of year and then the football analytics show is my podcast this week is a solo episode with just me talking about Success rate versus yards for play Insights we can get for different teams. I talked about a little bit of the stuff with Penn State I go into a little more depth in the episode also talk about USC and Oregon, which I think are two Fascinating teams heading down the stretch. Everyone thinks Lincoln Riley is is in crisis over there I kind of disagree. So that should be up. It's not up right now, but it should be up by Wednesday night All right, find that at the power rank calm to check out that and the football analytics show to get the podcast as well It is on Twitter at the power rank. I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. I'm also on threads. I'll throw that out there too. Why not at Jim dots on this? We'll just do it. I don't care whatever Yeah, they got a desktop version now. So I is the old person with fat thumbs who can't type I'm finally using it now because they have desktops. So You know Instagram used to just be like dog pics for me I guess I have to like actually use professionally now, which is upsetting. I'm just very upset about the entire thing Honestly, what you have to use Instagram professionally. Yeah, like a Twitter is gonna burn It's not gonna like it's not gonna go totally downhill, but like, you know, I got a hedge a little bit ed We know you know a thing you're we know a thing or two about hedging it applies to other stuff too apparently true It's unfortunate. But yeah, if you're on threads, I'm there at Jim dots on this We'll talk to you all once again tomorrow to break down NFL week number seven This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network