 Good day, fellow investors. I hope you feel great today. Today we're going to discuss nickel and two nickel junior miners to see if we can set us apart from the investment that I recommended in July or it was August. No real nickel. That is doing really well because nickel prices went up, palladium prices went up and copper prices went up. So we'll discuss the nickel environment and see if those junior miners that we're going to discuss can really become a good investment in this nickel environment to differentiate a little bit from the exposure that Norilsk offers if you are a long Norilsk. Let's first look at the nickel price. We can see that it is pretty subdued in comparison to other metals. It did hit $4 per ounce. Now it is 5.7 so it is a bit higher than it was during 2016 and 2017 but nevertheless you can see that 2011 and 2007 show how much improvement there is and nickel prices could really spike because the supply demand isn't that flexible. The reason behind the subdued nickel prices is overproduction. If you look at the global warehouse levels you can see that they have been going only up for the last 10 years. Higher inventories mean lower prices because everybody will try to get rid of the nickel they own as soon as prices go up. Then further why don't people stop producing nickel because only 30% of producers are price sensitive which means that nickel is mostly produced as a co-product so that if you produce copper and you have some nickel to spare you will sell that on the market to lower your production cost in general whatever the price and therefore nickel is still produced warehouse are piling it up and we see no effect on the supply so there are no cuts in the supply which keeps the price subdued. Nevertheless things are slowly changing. We can see that the short-term outlook is stable but we are now turning into deficits. The demand for stainless steel mostly and other demands for nickel are slowly growing while the supply is stable which means we already see in a deficit which means we already see the warehouse levels go down. As warehouse levels are expected to go down even more during the next four years we could see really spikes in nickel prices and that could happen especially in 2022 so if you invest in nickel your horizon should be 2022 2023 and beyond so it's really a five-year long-term investment case. Then something very important about nickel there are huge differences in the quality of nickel. You have 99% nickel in briquettes and then lower nickel ores that are sold around the world lower nickel concentration in what they sell. The lower the nickel concentration the higher the cost of conversion to 99% nickel which is then used in batteries and so on. So if the environment for nickel will be great only in four or five years how to invest? Well you have to invest for me for my perspective you have to invest in a company that is doing good now and that will do good no matter what happens. My favorite investment is also Norilsk which will make money whatever happens because they have copper they have nickel they have palletinum and they are doing very very well because their cost of mining of producing is negative so there will be cash flow positive for the five years and then they won't explode as much as other producers because their margins won't explode so much when nickel prices go up nevertheless I get the dividend now I'm happy the risk long-term risk is low if stock prices go down I rebalance and buy more if buy go higher I rebalance and sell a little bit. This is the chart for Norilsk it did very well in the last six months since we recommended it so I hope you went in on this story as it was represented very well on this channel I think. What is very important that nickel prices went up copper prices went up and other metal prices that Norilsk is producing went up and here they say that in case of improved market environment dividend payouts will stay at 60% EBTDA so very high dividends expected in the future even if they have increased their capital expenditures to increase their production in the long term so they have said okay let's take advantage of this environment to produce more after 2022 and you have seen that they expect after 2022 50% higher prices in nickel at least 18 000 per ton. Now let's see quickly two junior miners this is horizontal minerals who expects to generate 1.3 billion in free cash flow over the life of mine at 12 000 per ton nickel which is around current prices however the net present value is just 328 million at current prices 0 at 9 426 which was the price that we have seen recently but it goes to a very very high net present value of 1 billion if nickel prices go to 18 000 nevertheless to see what's the value of a nickel project not something that's producing you can see here that horizontal minerals acquire this vermelho or however do I pronounce it project in brazil from vale for just 2 million plus 6 million when in production and 1% of royalties on production this project is very big but it needs a lot of money to be completed however the market capitalization is 72 million pounds will be what 100 million dollars and has huge projects that need here in this case 1.2 billion but this project looks very good but vale sold it for just 2 million this shows what's the perception vale has the big brazilian miner on the value of such projects so extremely risky further there is royal nickel corporation that isn't just focus on nickel they have nickel cobalt gold producing copper producing so very interesting company but is again a way to expose yourself to nickel however a lot of projects some gold projects very complicated company and that's the problem with nickel most companies are very complicated to invest in so for now i have looked at these two companies if somebody has some other companies i have heard i forgot about it some australian nickel producers but all those junior miners are really really risky i have looked at them also the australian one don't remember but i don't know what will happen there and therefore it's risky for me i am a value investor i like defensive investments so if i'm wrong i don't lose much if i'm right i do very well i don't like these investments where i can lose everything but i can make huge amounts of money if something happens that odds don't make me sleep very well therefore i stick to noriosk i have added a little bit to my son's long-term portfolio investing of noriosk the dividend will be good everything looks good and if prices drop significantly in the next recession i will be buying that one very very strongly thank you for watching looking forward to the comments and i'll see you in the next video