 Right, I'm going to get started. Thanks very much for attending this monthly market webinar with me, Michael Huston and Colin Szczewczynski. This is just generally a Q&A where Colin and I basically go through the various markets. Look at the trends, look at the drivers of the trends and really I think try and pick a direction for the next move in the markets. Now before I get started I'll allow you all to peruse the risk warnings for the various jurisdictions, namely UK, Canada and Ireland and wherever else you happen to be listening in from and once I've done that I will basically jump these out of the way. I think one of the good things about these webinars Colin is coming on the back so closely off the back of non-farm payrolls and it gives us a chance to really digest what we saw last week which was an OK jobs number but the revision lower was a little bit troubling and once again we've seen a fairly positive number from the US jobs market but a very poor number from US retail sales. We're not getting confirmation from anything else really in terms of what the retail sales and we talked about durable goods and some of the others. It's really interesting that we're seeing the jobs had a nice rebound but really nothing else has in any meaningful way yet and anything related to consumer spending in particular has still come in quite softly of late. Which is all the more surprising when you consider what inflation is doing. Those PPI numbers that we saw earlier this afternoon were very, very weak minus 0.2 and we're expecting a positive number there so once again it does I think back the Fed into a corner with respect to what it can do with interest rates so we've got a June meeting coming up. I think we can all safely assume that they're not really going to do anything about meeting but I think it's also pushing the prospect of a weak Q2 and that's going to make it very, very difficult with the Fed to even consider hiking in September whether or not you have a different view on that is another matter. I know it's really looking that way to me. I don't see how they can do it before September at least if Q2 stays because I think they're going to have to raise their growth forecast before they start raising interest rates because they cut them in March and at this rate we may not see them raise them in June either and the other thing that concerns me with the Fed, the other way is that they are painting themselves into a corner where we're down at, we've had three weeks in a row now of substantially below 300,000 jobless claims so you've got the employment markets going apparently really well for them but at the same time what happens if things go the other way and soften on them, they've got absolutely no firepower whatsoever with all the left after all the QE programs and zero interest rates so they really are getting themselves stuck between a rock and a hard place here I'm thinking. I'm a three month average for jobs who's 190,000 so unless the first time is dropped below 200,000 since the beginning of 2014 so that again feeds into the narrative of what I would suggest is a slightly weakening job market particularly if you look at the ADP numbers as well where since the peaks that we saw in November each subsequent month has been slightly weaker than the previous month so while we've been adding jobs it's been at a much lower rate and that's really been reflected I think in the S&P we look at this chart in front of us here and we're in a range we're not going anywhere the top of the range is 2120 the bottom of the range is I would suggest probably 2075 2085 on the wide of it you're looking at 2035 you know at the moment I think investors are very very unsure about the next move for US markets and I think if you actually look at this this particular chart here the Dow is fairly similar as well it's pretty unremarkable in the NASAC as well and I think what you're you're running into this time it's a little different is that in the past you'd have if you came in with a weakening US economy well people would go great lovely it means the Fed will come in with more QE or delay tapering or whatever and keep the liquidity piling in but but this time around there's no sign of the new liquidity piling in so when people are seeing the bad news now instead of or weaker news instead of saying great we'll keep the liquidity party going drive the market higher instead it's like oh well what does this mean for corporate earnings and what does this mean for valuations and and we probably reached a point where for now the the valuations have kind of gotten stretched and the end with the then no new liquidity at the very least even if they don't raise interest rates it doesn't look like they're likely to come in with a QE for either so the markets kind of topped out here and then on the bottom side the the economy has slowed but it's not crashing either so you do have some fundamental support as well and then you end up stuck in a trading range and it's not uncommon that we've had these the the last one was in 0405 and the previous one was in 9495 and we do you do kind of get these in in what I call kind of mid-cycle where when the central banks start pulling back on the liquidity and people are figuring out is the economy really strong enough to stand on its own or what have you but the point is these things can go on for the better part of a year so and we're if I go back to February we're about three months in now so we probably go we could have another row we could see this go on right through the summer yeah I certainly think I'm I certainly think that's a valid assessment you compare that though to what we've been seeing in the US bond markets and actually it's quite similar in terms of the range that we've been if we look at say for example the 10 year I'm struck by how similar the prices have been relative to the stock market you know again we're in a range in terms of the US Treasury 10 year yield which suggests to me that you know US interest rate expectations are fairly stable even though markets are trying to second guess as to when we're going to get you know a fed rate rise you know you and I have disagreed about the timing of the other of a fed rate rise you know for the past five months I'm still of the opinion they won't do anything this year you know your comment about the fact that they won't move on rates or won't give a signal on rates until they upgrade their inflation or growth forecast I think is a very valid one which suggests to me that there isn't a meeting between June and September which means that if they don't do it in June I move their forecasts and given the fact that we've just seen a fairly weak payroll number for April they're only going to have visibility on just one more payrolls number and that's the May one in early June they're not likely to change them on the basis of one payrolls number are they so that would then suggest to me that they would have to then revise their forecast up in September and they're not going to move on rates at the same time as moving on their forecasts yeah that's right it's pretty unlikely that's why I figure it is that they would probably signal by changing their forecasts first and then and then they're in there and then you would perhaps a following meeting yeah looking at October October or December yeah exactly yeah and then you've got the speakers they're arguing over well do we move sooner and take our time or do we go later and act more aggressively they're still turning through trying to turn through that as well and and they would you know the one thing I notice in all this is that the markets not really reacting to it anymore you know in the past we know we know the you'd hear tons of talk about well you know this Fed governor said this and this Fed governor said that and you know and it would spark some fairly significant moves in the markets and now them of late the the market that the the reaction to all of this has been has been much more muted where the market is like is almost like okay let us know when you're ready to raise them and I think that's really being reflected in the move in the euro against the dollar the dollars weakening because the thing the markets starting to push that out but I think what's more interesting and this is something that I've covered in my videos recently is the sharp correlation that we've been seeing with respect to the German DAX the German Bund and the euro dollar I mean what we've seen here if we look at the daily chart don't know how many of you can actually see this but this is this is the daily chart if we change it to a weekly chart here we've got a very strong downward move on the weekly candle right here right in there this this down move here we can see my my cursor that's very bearish we've got a tweezer top we've taken out the lows of the previous two weeks here if we then change this to a monthly candle it's even more nasty in terms of what we've got there a bearish reversal on the German DAX okay so we've got that now if we look at the German Bund and it's a similar sort of story again even more marked and it's important to understand what's happening here we've seen a significant sell-off in German Buns which is pushing German yields higher relative to US yields so basically what it's doing is it's actually making it less attractive to hold dollars that relative to euros if we also look at the Bund chart on a monthly chart we have got a fairly similar outcome here in terms of the bearish monthly reversal which would suggest then to me that that's going to be fairly positive for the euro in terms of the yield differentials so I've looked at that that particular chart is pushing down which suggests that we could well see further losses on German Buns therefore higher yields which should be euro positive if we now look at euro dollar monthly chart again we've seen a break higher but we look at the monthly chart again a bullish reversal in this case which it would seem to suggest we're going to get a break higher in the short to medium term and we did get an initial indicator that might happen beginning of February sort of beginning of March now we've broken higher if we can now look at the saves chart that I've got here which is the four hour chart we can see that we've ratcheted this move up quite nicely on the four hour chart and our and our initial channel higher is now broken above the channel and it's now basically drawing itself finding support at the upper at the upper end of that line there so if I just redraw that because sometimes these lines do have a tendency to need redrawing I draw that there snapping on the low snapping on the low there and then snapping through those levels there you can see that we're running into a little bit of resistance at the moment we are overbought I put in a horizontal line up here as a bit of a guidance threshold for us we can see that coincides with the February peaks so we're going to get a little bit of little bit of resistance in the short to medium term but we still remain well away from the 200 day moving average that's just to me that overall I think we've seen the lows in euro dollar in the short term and the bias now remains very much a case of buying dips on euro dollar buying dips on the pound against the dollar or alternatively looking at another way selling rallies on any dollar gains so then you're going to climb up out of a double bottom too when you look back at the daily chart that's pretty solid bottom absolutely through here channels now obviously so if you've got a double bottom the measuring objective really is from the lows to the highs and you project that higher well that's 110 that's 105 give or take that's 500 points so we're pretty much almost all the way there to around about 115 so we pretty much on the sorry you're getting overbought in the stochastics in your approach to a measured objective probably tells you at some point you might need a bit of a pause or maybe a bit of a pullback but you're right I mean this does look like a definitely a solid trend of higher lows and I think when you talk when you're talking about things like that it's important to look for confirmation and I think that's why I've looked at the bund and the topping pattern there which suggests to me that yields aren't probably going to go down that much more again you know in in German bond markets which then really sort of throws into question the the yield differentials with respect to German bonds and US treasuries and I think it's very important to understand the relationship between yield differentials when you're trading something like euro-dollar because when when when the yield when the yield differential widens in favor of one currency over another you usually get more currency flow into the higher yielding currency or not necessarily the higher yielding currency but as the yield differential narrows you start to get an adjustment process take place in favor of either the narrowing or the widening of the differential and I think you can really make that distinction quite nicely if we look at my Bloomberg here and I think this is why it's very very important in the context of what we're looking at in terms of government bond yield differentials if I look at this page here hopefully you guys can see this and you'll understand where I'm coming from this is the current yield differential between German tenure and US tenure is 154 basis points in favor of US treasuries that in itself is not the important number what's important is the direction of travel and this bottom chart here which is the spread which I'm now going to put on the chart in front of you there now if you see this 190 basis points level here that level there coincides with when euro-dollar was at 104 50 so that's basically when yields were widest in favor of the dollar and against the euro what we can see here ladies and gentlemen is the fact this differential is starting to narrow in favor of the euro therefore it's pushing the euro higher so if this differential continues to move lower it's going to support the euro relative to the US dollar and this is what I've been looking at over the past two to three weeks two to three months in fact to try and derive a direction for euro-dollar and at the moment you can see this trend here it is definitely moving in the euro's favor yes there are 154 basis points in favor of the US dollar in terms of the yield differential but it's narrowed quite considerably from where we were when euro-dollar hit 104 50 and we've taken out these loads through here which suggests that we've certainly got more scope to come in more more positive in terms of the euro you got anything you want to add to that Colin yeah I wanted to talk a little but I thought we could talk a little bit as to why that's the case and and why it peaked back at the beginning of February because I find that peak really interesting it's right around the time the ECB started their quantitative easing program and I've been tracking this on a weekly basis and so if you went with it what the ECB said we're going to do 60 billion euros a month would be 15 billion a week right but if you say okay fine well it's there's actually 13 weeks and a quarter and you have 180 billion over 13 weeks works out to about 13.8 billion they've been running at 12.0 so the ECB bond buying has been running below expectations and and the other side is I'm increasingly thinking this at least for the last little while that that Greece is continuing to be noise my thinking is the drivers that this that this QE program has not been as not been coming in as as strong as people thought it was going to be and and that they've been that they've been telling the world they've been buying less bonds and that's what I suspect is has been driving this the rebound in the euro the drop in the yield spread and but maybe there's other factors that I haven't thought of as well do you have any thoughts Michael well there is I mean I think it's a case of you know sort of sell a room of buy the facts they've been front running this QE program since the beginning of 2014 and the market's got ahead of the facts and it's pretty much all priced in now US 10 year sorry German 10 year yields were at 0.05 cent and most of the German yield curve was negative we've seen a rally in oil prices which would seem to suggest that these concerns about deflation that everyone was worried about are overblown and that's why you've seen yield start to rise simply because I think the concerns that a lot of people had about deflation in the euro area were overpriced and now you're seeing a realignment in people's expectations and that's why you're seeing a sell-off in German bonds and that's why you're seeing euro push higher because people's expectations that we were going to see a significant amount of deflation in the euro area aren't being borne out in the economic data that we've been seeing coming out that's not to say that you know Europe is going to come rebounding back like a lion out of the cage but what I am thinking is that maybe people were pricing in far too much deflation relative to what we're seeing and I think that combined with the rebound in the oil price has caused an awful lot of people to take some of that risk off the table and that's pushed bonds down and that's pushed yields up and narrowed the differential between US treasuries and the 10 year and more importantly I think there has been significant indications that the US dollar really I think has run out steam US economic data is softening so the attraction of the US dollar is starting to diminish so I think you've got a bit of a push pull going on in terms of interest rate expectations in Europe and interest rate expectations in the US and that's what's basically sending the dollar higher sorry dollar lower after the massive gains that we've seen in the past 12 months it's a similar sort of story if we look on the Australian dollar as well if we look on the monthly chart on the Australian dollar it's an even bigger monthly reversal there again it's a bullish engulfing it's a key reversal day and that suggests to me that I think there's more risk of Australian dollar going back to 90 than going back down to the lows that we saw at the you know in the middle of last month it's not just the Australian dollar that's showing us these sorts of reversals it's the euro dollar it's also the pound against the dollar and when you get a whole host of charts telling you the same thing in complaint against the dollar to yeah pretty much everything except in in Norwegian corona to pretty much the only one that's been soft has been the Kiwi dollar and even they've shown signs of life but they're looking at it at a rate cut yeah a lot of the dollars are and resource currencies are all turning they've all been turning higher as well absolutely and when you've got all of those indicators and people still saying they think the dollar is going to go higher that tells me that people are the wrong way around they're talking their book but they essentially want one and when you've got position values like that it also tells me that people are the wrong way around you know you are 83% of the cash position in Aussie dollar short of Aussie long of dollars if we look at the same thing with respect to euro dollar again we're looking at a very similar story 80% top clients cash positions a short euro that's not to say they're wrong but it just tells me that the market I think is overly bullish on the dollar and overly bearish on everything else and when that happens I tend to start to worry about the fact that people are to one way you know and we've got the election out of the way and again I think that had an awful lot of people short sterling and once again I think people are the wrong way around I think they were overly concerned about the prospect of a Labour government yet the markets weren't pricing that in you know if we looked at what cable was doing over the course of the last few weeks even before last week's vote it was showing signs that it bottomed out which I thought was strange given how much uncertainty there was around the polls but look at look at this bear bullish reversal on the weekly charts that we saw four or five weeks ago that was telling me that the pound was looking very well supported despite the fact that there was a prospect we could get a Labour government and that wrangle arm bells for me it told me that if we did get in any way conclusive result we were going to get a move higher and that's exactly what we got so you know in terms of the dollar story we now are above the 5100 and 200 day moving average on the cable for the first time since the Scottish referendum that for me is fundamentally bullish and that also suggests to me that you know as long as we stay above you know sort of 154 155 then we could well go to 160 which you know every fiber of my being tells me wrong but the charts don't lie or telling us that the US dollars into a into a pretty serious correction here I mean it had such a relentless move last year against pretty much everything that we're now into I think was a pretty solid countertrend reversal here I mean we've got the US dollar index back down under under 95 94 now I mean it could easily retest 90 at least it's it's quite a quite a pullback we're starting to get in the in the dollar index here and look at the top and then just the bottom is just falling right out from under it yeah I mean we can have a quick look at the dollar index I think on the Bloomberg which I'm going to pull across in a minute see you carry on talking Colin and I'll just call this up and then we can have a look at the dollar index sure so we had a major rally in the US dollar and then that was basically driven by two things one was expectations that the Fed would start raising interest rates in June that's pretty clear that that's not going to happen and and then of course we saw other things collapsing all around it so there was you know there was concerns about the UK election there was concerns about what's going to happen with Europe and pricing in a big Kiwi program and there was the collapse in the oil prices and other commodity prices drove all the retail the resource dollars down so you ended up with it was like this golden moment for the US dollar and a perfect storm for everybody else and we had this huge rally in the dollar and that's pretty much started in say last summer about the time crude oil started heading south and you know kaboom that's like nine months just solid straight-up trend a double top and now you're seeing it start to go back and yeah you know like well you can almost even make a case that this could be a head and a head and shoulders with a shoulder in May a shoulder in January and a double top head and basically that's looking anyway it's like that's looking pretty awful it is for a serious retrenchment this for me I think 93 40 and the dollar index equates to around about 115 euro dollar I think when you look at the dollar index you got to be aware that it's it comprises about 57 percent euro dollar so there is a significant correlation between the dollar index and the euro dollar to the tune of around about 55 if we change this also to a weekly chart we can see again there's a little bit of a reversal there but if we then change it to a monthly chart I think it's even more notable look at that that is a significant bearish reversal on the dollar index now we've seen them before we saw one here and we saw a significant decline we saw a little bit of a one here if we blend those two candles and again we saw a significant decline over the course of the next few months so that for me is a warning sign that we're going to see further declines in the dollar index over the course of the next five to six months that's five to six months it's important to you know articulate that we're not going to see it over the next two or three weeks we're going to see an awful lot of noise in between but I think overall as long as euro dollar stays above one ten and a half we get a pullback from where we are now I think you know any dips are probably a fairly decent buy low risk buying opportunity certainly on the basis of that chart anyway right before I'm Colin and I move on to other assets ladies and gents do you have any questions about a market that we haven't covered yet otherwise what we're going to do now is we're going to go on to crude oil prices and then we're going to go on to to gold prices because crude oil is actually also been fairly interesting as well sorry about that I think I've just gone and got rid of there it is we're back again back in the room so crude oil prices I haven't the opinion that potentially we may have seen a top I'm sure you actually I think we're we maybe actually we've had a pretty good run here and and it's crude oil starting to look a little more weaker to me technically and there's a couple of things going on so we've had a huge run in the crude oil price the crude oil prices can benefit from some of the some of the weakening in the US dollar but but something we got to watch for here is you know basically we had a massive massive sell-off in crude oil we've had a significant what we can call a trading balance a countertrend rally here an upward correction whatever we want to call it but at some point it looks like we may be starting to run out of gas and there's a few things that that are going on and if we don't just look at it from the the fundamental side for a second we had no people expecting that that US inventories we're going to build forever now now US inventories have started to to level off and come back down a little bit but the most important thing is to pay attention to as people have been saying well US drilling activities gone down US productions gone down and that's going to boost the price of crude oil but there's there's one big problem with that which is that the Saudis have increased their production more than the US has cut theirs so the and in the last couple of days the international energy agency came out and basically said that and overnight the Saudis have been going around clucking saying basically we're winning the market share war we've driven out that the higher-cost US production and and replaced it with ourselves and and the bottom line is that that overall crude market supply has not gone down this price war is going to go on for a long time so then and if crude oil does start going up much farther you do run into the risk of how long is it going to take for the the US shale producers to figure out oh the basically that the the Saudis have have done a number on us and and basically we should just go ahead with anything that's profitable and and so at some point I think you are going to see this this turn again and we are starting to see signs and if we look back to the top one then actually Michaels highlighted it here the gravestone doji and the evening star which are I think it looks like it's the topping of the pattern and coinciding with an overbought stochastic so maybe you want to talk about that a little more Michael yeah I mean as I say we've got the evening star formation here with the gravestone doji now we have had a little bit of a pullback and the thing with these patterns is these patterns require confirmation they're not hard and fast so for me the bottom of the gravestone doji formation is this horizontal line through here around about 63 dollars a barrel so what we need to do is we need to stay below these two peaks here this peak here and this peak here for this pattern to unfold so we need to come lower and we need to break down through here towards this long-term trend line over here the thing with candlestick patterns is unlike specifically with respect to a combination of candles like this is they require confirmation so they're not as strong in terms of the signals that they give out but say something like a bullish engulfing pattern a key reversal day a bearish engulfing pattern and a key reversal day they're not they're not as strong they need confirmation so what you're looking for on a pattern like this is a break through here okay so a break below this line to suggest that we've seen a short-term top and a move down towards this line here and potentially even lower through here I don't think we're going to come crashing off but there's also an additional factor at play in here with respect to crude prices there's an OPEC meeting next month and what we've seen this morning is that the non-OPEC members like Venezuela Russia and Iran and Iraq have ramped up production quite significantly simply because they need the hard currency and we've seen we've seen that reflected in the way the ruble is recovered against the US dollar as well so it's all very well for the Saudis to basically turn around and saying they've raised prices now that's and they think they've seen off US shell producers but also you're not factoring in the non-OPEC producers who are not bound by the OPEC quotas so we have a we have an OPEC meeting in June and I think what we're going to see there is probably not dissimilar to what we've seen over the past few months in that the Saudis will sit on their hands and you know you can certainly see that born out in the uncertainty or the corridor of uncertainty that we've got in Brent crude prices here between 63 and $68 a barrel but also if we look at WTI it's a similar sort of story on the WTI chart here and you can see that the candles have reacted in a slightly different way which is why it's always important to say these sorts of patterns need confirmation so you can see where the big support level is on the WTI is basically around $57.50 right through those series of lows through there so we haven't quite taken out that high but obviously what we have we have got here is some we have some form of selling pressure around about $61.62 a barrel and it would take and move through those highs to suggest that we're going to kick on higher so markets are a little bit worried about being overly long crude oil at these levels so I'm also looking here at a bit of a double possible double top there above $61 on the shadows and of course a rollover in the in the stochastics tells you your upward momentum is starting to weaken as well so we are at a point where we had a great run up in crude which is which is which is nice and it certainly has helped to take some of the pressure off some of the crude producing areas and the crude producing currencies but but at the same time we're not looking at a situation where this is ready to go back to to 100 or even 80 or even 75 at some point it we're getting to a point where it could potentially start to level off and and go back the other way because after this kind of a generational crash that we had which was the first time we've really seen it driven by a by a supply war since 1986 it wasn't over in a few months it took years for the oil market to to sort itself out and I think that's going to be the same thing again you can get some pretty substantial moves clearly up and down within it and you could get you $20 trend trend moves but but it's not a you know happy days are here against scenario this is more of a we've had a big sell-off we've had a right basically an upward correction and and at some point that's going to run into gas need you level off or start going back the other way again but but certainly this whole supply war situation is that is really just getting started in my opinion yeah I think we're just stabilizing it slightly higher levels after the after the sharp sell-off and gold is quite interesting in that we've ratcheted higher let me just get rid of that line because it's pretty old now and it doesn't really had anything to the overall analysis but certainly I think the breaks about these peaks is trying to break out here which again feeds into the weaker dollar narrative if we can basically draw a line through there that 1225 I mean we do have peaks here between 1233 but certainly I think what we're seeing here given this last three days we've seen a very strong short squeeze in gold prices and I think there was a story out earlier today about Germans buying gold coins on mass over concern that a Greek default or a forthcoming Greek default could actually destabilize monetary union which I think is probably slightly overstating things but I certainly think at some point we are getting very close to an end game on Greece and while the euro doesn't appear to be reflecting that uncertainty I certainly think that you know at some point over the next two or three weeks we could get some form of resolution and even if we don't I think they're merely delaying the inevitable which is a quick default yeah I think at this point time the Greeks the degrees is they're just so far and then I mean the solutions that were proposed four years ago to to improve things so that they could pay their debt only made things worse so it to me it's only a matter of time before they yeah before they have to do a default and people have to take serious serious right down even regardless of whether they they actually end up leaving the euro or not we've got a bit of a bit of a break out here as well on on the silver silver and a huge move up we had a huge move up on silver and my colleague Jasper's done a video on that which is now on the CMC markets YouTube channel which you can all have a look at and get Jasper's take on what's happening with silver it's at youtube.com forward slash CMC markets PLC where we post all of our videos and where we will be posting a recording of this of this webinar once we've once we've concluded it but certainly we've we've got a bit of a break out on the on the 200 day moving average traded above that for the first time since July last year so from a technical point of view that could be a leading indicator for a break higher in gold so certainly worth keeping an eye on that as well Colin is there anything else you want me to add before we look at anything else I know these are good at this point I should just be curious because I haven't looked at them myself can we take a quick peek at platinum platinum yeah sure I haven't looked at that in a while I have to say so it's been fairly quiet I mean it started to pick up a little bit you could you could make a case it's trying to break out of a out of a downtrend here but and let's just put some moving averages on that yeah put some color on it because I always think these movies sometimes as well for for confirmation that of renewed interest in precious metals and and so far it's been in the downtrend so it hasn't moved up quite as quick because sometimes it trades like an industrial metal and sometimes it trades like a precious metal it's a bit like silver silver does that as well yeah I was actually a trend line I was just kind of seeing in my head they're the one you just drew it does look like it's trying to break out here I think it has changed it to a weekly chart yeah it's starting to break out as well yeah it's not conclusive but it's certainly worth keeping an eye on that particular one there was actually something that I was looking at earlier this week with respect to the Nikkei the Nikkei in particular I think some of the Hong Kong markets look what we've got here ladies and gents potentially only potentially I might add we've got potential head and shoulders reversal forming here we've had a very strong up move throughout 2015 at the moment at the moment there's nothing to see here what we've got is potentially a head and shoulders we've got the left shoulder here we've got a small little peak there and we've got a right shoulder potentially forming here first indication that momentum was starting to fail here was when we broke this up trend line from the lows in 2015 now we're starting to track lower or be it very very slowly but what we've got is a potential neckline through here and what we're looking for is the confirmation of a head and shoulders reversal will be a break lower through this trend line here now at the moment we are we are struggling to make any headway one way or the other we've traded above 20,000 that's proved to be a bit of a barrier I think there is a significant prospect that you know we could carry on trading sideways for quite some time but certainly overall on the downside I would be keeping an eye on this particular neckline here given given some of the hysteria for one of a better word about Asian equity markets and there was there was a talking about Asian equity markets in particular the Australian ASX 2000 the all-ordinaries look at this here we've had a double top breakout on the all ordinaries three or four attempts to break above 6,000 we've broken below it the end of last week we've bounced off the 200-day moving average and at the moment we're finding resistance between 5,700 and 5,750 now if this is a classic double top breakout then you've got 6,500 750 250 points the target is down here at 5,500 I've basically taken this move projected it from the breakout point downwards that's our minimum price objective at the moment the 200-day moving average is supporting it we've rebounded off it what we don't want to see happen here is just a break back into this price corridor otherwise it negates our downward objective so at the moment the ASX looks as if we could be set for another move lower what could cause that a wiki US dollar and a stronger Aussie certainly worth keeping an eye on or a rebounding commodity prices one of the two so the number of there's a number of very nice patterns either started to form or in the process of forming all that have completed over the past three or four weeks so you know it's been it's been quite exciting watching some of this stuff play out because it's playing out an awful lot in the way that I expected it would yeah we're really seeing a lot of the you know these are some pretty substantial trend reversal patterns that are forming here whether we're looking at quadruple tops and and double bottoms and and a lot of these signs are just showing that we kind of well stocks have kind of gone sideways in the US and other markets are starting to roll over it does seem as though this whole big trends that we've had particularly through late 2014 early 2015 are now starting to reverse themselves as we head into the into the summer here and Michael could you bring up the the Hang Seng please the Hong Kong candidate yep that's a whole other one that was just screaming recently and now has started to roll back over it looks so toppy it's not it looks so toppy it's not true but it's like a little hat really because it had that explosive move up I that was on the that was kind of market driven that was increased increased trading back and forth between Hong Kong and Shanghai they loosened up some of the restrictions and yeah and so that's what caused that that massive rally there but now if you look at it does look like a pretty serious top forming there in the in the Hong Kong yeah I think someone once said that if that breaks down that'll be a vomiting camel so that's the head and that's the hump and then if it breaks below down we go so again you know I think in Asia some of the markets are looking a little bit tired for one of a better word and what you're seeing here is what I is a pause for breath and I think if you break below 27,000 with any significant degree of impetus then we could see a whole host of stocks stops triggered all the way down to 26,000 so you know you know for me everyone saying well stocks should go higher someone and so forth that may well be true but certainly I think in the context of what we've seen at the moment there are there is some evidence that stocks are starting to look a little bit tired we are in May and I'm not a big believer in selling May and go away but certainly looking at the FTSE 100 in the UK 100 again we're right on this line we did break below it earlier this month but we didn't close below it but what we do appear to have is this is almost like a rounded top it's not quite a head and shoulders we've got a left shoulder here a little bit of a head here and a right shoulder here when we rallied post-election on Friday what we didn't do with any degree of confidence is they basically take out that March peak in May we went slightly above it but we didn't close conclusively above it so there's certainly some evidence of a little bit of a topping pattern there but we still have very very solid support at the 200 day moving average and at the trend line support that we tested earlier this morning okay ladies and gents I'm going to wind this up now unless you have any other questions you'd like to direct to me or Colin if you do want to follow up on anything that we've discussed in this Q&A please feel free to tweet us I'm at mHusen underscore CMC Colin is at C. Sosinski underscore CMC don't ask me to spell his name because I can't sorry Colin but yeah but please feel free to either you know or either that would or drop us an email otherwise thanks very much for your time we'll talking to you again non-farm payrolls in June that should be interesting otherwise we don't speak to you in non-farm payrolls in June we'll talk to you same time same place next month absolutely have a great day everyone thanks for joining us thanks guys