 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We've got some big mattress between potential Super Bowl contenders coming up in week four and I'm not talking Bill's Ravens I'm talking Jags Eagles coming up this week and we're gonna break down I guess Bill's Ravens to talk about the Jags and the Eagles and those teams who happen to Have seen each other once or twice before chiefs and the Bucks Mahomes versus Brady once again We're gonna have a fun slate on taps. Let's dive on in and get you set the betting perspective for week number four This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim sauna. So I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as I am each Thursday by Ryan Williams checking out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W preview week number four in the NFL Ryan Happy Thursday to you. How you doing today? Hey, we're doing well Jim as always We're just you know trying to get to week four here, man I can't believe the seasons flying by on us will be a quarter way Quarter of the way through after this week. So we're just trying we're just trying to make it as much money as we can Jim as it stands right now That is unfathomable that it be a quarter of the way through already like I feel like we just started We did just start so like that is accurate. That's not even just like a perception thing I'm sad. I don't want the season to go by this quickly. It definitely is so far And it's an interesting week this week because we have those big matches But also a lot of quarterback situations in flux a lot of good teams trotting out backups Yeah, I'm you know, not the Brian Hoyer qualifies the backup the God Brian Hoyer But you know a lot of teams changing quarterbacks early on we'll talk about the impact of that how Ryan handle those things and The impact of that and then break down the biggest games and get to our favorite bets for week number four But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts Our college football week five betting preview with Dr. Ed Feng and Colin Wilson is now up that is up on the cover in the spread feed and the Fandall YouTube page make sure you are subscribed in both locations to get these as they go live each and every weekday Also twisted tea and Fandall have joined forces to bring you a one-of-a-kind Contest series gives you a chance to compete for your share of thousands of dollars and site credit Introduce in twisted teas college football picks a sports betting focus contest series that is entirely free to play The contest is simple each college football game will be assigned money line spread and total markets with assigned points for each market All you to do is make six selections based on those three markets and earn points for each correct Selection you made at the end of the day your score ranks among the best in the contest You'll be eligible for your share of site credit head if annual comm slash twisted tea picks and make your picks and reminder Please drink responsibly Let's dig into the slate here for week number four starting off with the quarterback discussion because we've seen teams suffer injuries to quarterback We've got Zach Wilson making his 2022 Debut for this week as well and Ryan We're already dealing with small samples in the NFL because it's just a short season as you alluded to with the quarter Paul are to being here So how do you determine? How a quarterback will fare stepping in for someone else whether it be a starter coming back or a backup coming in because I have troubles with this I mean I do my best, but I want to know what your process is trying to decide how to handle those fluid situations Yeah, I mean there's a couple of things Jim that I think I look at I mean especially from a betting perspective You're looking at okay like has this quarterback played played in a situation before It's not a rookie. It's an experienced guy like what let's take Thursday night For example Tua was ruled in this this morning as we're recording this pod on a Thursday So Thursday night football with the Dolphins going against the Bengals Teddy Bridgewater was set to be the backup if Tua couldn't go Teddy Bridgewater is one of the best quarterbacks against the spread I love the Cincinnati Bengals at minus three and a half because of what the situation was for the Miami Dolphins But now they had it, you know, you switch up your game plan now You're prepared for Tua in this explosive offense. You got to do Teddy Bridgewater. He's a little bit safe Protects the football and that could might that might lean to a little bit more of the Dolphins being able to cover We got the New England Patriots with Mac Jones being out Brian Hoyer is gonna come in Who is a you know, he's a journeyman at the quarterback position? You look at those at these teams that have you know veteran rookie presence And I like to see what the trends are telling me But also you look at the system and what the quarterback is going to be asked to do last year We saw Lamar Jackson get hurt and Tyler Huntley came in and he was basically Designed to do the same thing that Lamar does. Hey, we're gonna make efficient passes for you We're gonna let you run with the ball If the if the pocket breaks down and we saw kind of the similar thing And that's why the Ravens were able to cover and win so many games without Lamar being there It's just one of those interesting things that I like to look at with the quarterbacks as far as the trends Who's coming in and how the offense is gonna be designed around them? Yeah, if it's total overhaul of the offense system That's a pretty serious change because the personnel is probably suited towards their like baseline scheme and stuff like that and You know that could be an issue with like the 49ers with going from Lance to Garoppolo But obviously they know Jimmy G so that wasn't situation there. I think for me I try to go back to the thing you mentioned there at the end where you judge the situation Judging the surrounding talent, you know, are they coming in with good pieces around them because I mean Hypothetically if you put Brian Hoyer on the Eagles, it's a downgrade from Joan Hertz Like that's obviously true But the downgrade might be lessened because the supporting cast there is pretty solid Same thing if you were to put Brian Hoyer on the Dolphins, you know the supporting cast there outside of the offensive line It's pretty good. So I think for me it comes down to judging the offensive line judging the past catchers there and Deciding can a below average quarterback excel in this kind of system and asking yourself, you know What what that efficiency would be? It's not an easy process It does require, you know knowledge of offensive linemen and past catches and stuff like that But I love offensive linemen so no objections there I think that that's kind of the process I want to go through is judging the system first judging the Context around them and then going from there to decide how I want to view them So let's dig in now to this first big game on the Sunday slay We got the bills favored by three against the Ravens the total is 51 for this game Now, obviously both offenses are blazing both secondary is pretty banged up, but This is one of the games in the path of hurricane Ian as of right now Obviously, there are more important things in football going on with this Hopefully everyone affected by this is doing okay But that matters a lot more than talking about the football angles of this But we're betting podcast so I think it's important to factor that in when it comes to discussing this now Ryan I'm not a meteorologist but looking at what they're saying about the path of this currently The hurricane is projected to be in this area and for the Jags Eagles Which we'll talk about later on because Baltimore Philadelphia pretty close and it makes a lot of sense there But that's not definitive because hurricanes can change path stuff like that We don't really know the direction this will go so I'm curious your overall thoughts on this game With where things currently stand Yes, so I mean, there's there's a lot to unpack here Jim Let's first talk about the Ravens here who you know, you're looking at the public side of things They're back in the Ravens here. They opened up four point dogs They're now three point dogs and even then when you're talking about John Harbaugh and company here with the Ravens being three point Home dogs like that's just a number that we tend to cling to I mean John Harbaugh has one of the best Against the spread records, you know at home as a home dog And rightfully so I mean these teams This is just a spot that we love Baltimore and we saw Buffalo last week You know, they they could do nothing wrong in that game until the end of the game, right? Like everything that could go wrong for them went wrong. They controlled top possession They got off. What was it 60 or 90 plays or something like that against against this, you know Buffalo team. So, you know, you got all the emotions riding there Within and Baltimore is just is just rolling right now And this the battle for MVP with Lamar Jackson and Josh Schellen both But when we're getting the three here with with Baltimore, I gotta lean on that side just because of what history is telling me Yeah, I think there are a couple reasons to be on Baltimore Like I thought I would be on Baltimore here at the bills minus three going around my numbers It does have the bills by exactly three So I've used that line as being efficient But if we're going to be in a weather game where it forces teams to potentially none of their run game more which run game do you trust the one led by Lamar Jackson and Hopefully JK Dobbins Justice Hill or the one where the bills refused to use their running backs Like steadfastly refused to give them any volume The bills biggest flaw I would say as an entire team is their inability to run the football Obviously, it's not nearly as important as passing But you need to be able to do it at some point And I think this could wind up being one of those situations where it is necessary and I trust the Ravens offense to do it more So not betting Baltimore plus three But even though my numbers had this game at bills minus three I prefer the Raven side of this game as a result of the way things could play out Given the weather here Josh Allen has played in a lot of weather in his time in Buffalo and traditionally He's fine relative to the downgrade other quarterbacks getting weather It's not as important for Josh Allen, but I feel like that impact is even lessened for the Baltimore Ravens now one factor in that analysis Could be that Lamar Jackson is chucking it this year. He is going downfield with reckless abandon and it's working It's been great. He should keep doing it But it could increase the impact of the weather there So I'm kind of on board with you. Do you like this enough to bet Ravens plus three or is it more So just a lean for you. No, I think I like it enough to bet Ravens plus three I'm looking at the numbers here. How about numbers you're looking at for no against the spread as a home dog over the past four seasons 48 three and three Just as an underdog in general in his career is what I was alluding to so yeah, you got to like the number here I will say Jim though We'll monitor the weather as it gets to the weekend because these paths can always change But like as you mentioned the running game Like I just thought that this would these were just two offenses that could just throw on each other all the time We know the Baltimore Raven secondary is banged up We've talked about it on the show before and now you're looking at the bill secondary I mean you're losing your two safeties who have gone on IR They got so many of the front seven on the you know, the did not practice report For Wednesday, we'll monitor that for Thursday But it's just one of those things like I get it We look at this on paper and we're like, okay, jk Dobbins Devon Singletary like these are guys that have to be involved But we know they have more we know they have shot on the other side Like these quarterbacks could just look to throw and then if it's not there They could just take off and run themselves as well too So that could be the best running aspect for these two teams is to look at these prop totals On these two quarterbacks But the rushing totals are because even if the wind is playing a factor I think that people will try and talk themselves to these running backs Who just have not been involved and it could just be smashing the quarterback over rushing props And I think that's also important in a high leverage game That's when you tend to see Quarterbacks run more is when it matters more this game matters. I know it's not a divisional game, but like It's a tight game And I think that that does matter for sure Josh Allen ran more last week And again had like 10 rush attempts against the dolphins perfectly because they ran 90 plays again Like you said, but in higher leverage games, you do see quarterbacks run more So that could be something to check out once props are posted on Friday morning Let's dig in down to the Jags at the Eagles as mentioned Eagles six and a half point favorites here total is 46 and a half and the Jags Have looked really impressive so far They've been a delight to watch But it's a different beast to go from Carson wence matt ryan banged up jesson herbert with too often some line missing to go to facing jalen heritz who Is a legitimate MVP contender again? This is another game impacted by weather but ryan, what are you seeing in this game? Yeah, so this is this is a fun one too We talk all the time me and you jim offline online about narrative street and you got dug peterson returning to philly here With the jaguars thing that is absolutely rolling I mean we talked about we talked about this at the fest like the jaguars making the playoffs interesting bat Like the jaguars went in the division interesting bat Don't know how the jaguars price is where it is now to win the division I saw that plus 195 right now the coach is still favorite. It makes really no sense to me I would I would still be getting action on that In the six and a half number, you know, it was it open at seven Move down the hook to six and a half and I still like that number. These are two Prolific offenses when it comes to scoring the football this year and who thought we'd be saying that about the jags and eagles But the jaguars are averaging 28 points a game. The eagles are averaging like 28.3 points a game I know wins expected in this game too that you'll talk about but I do think I mean Here's another situation too where these teams are passing the ball at an insane rate not establishing the run We know what to expect. We're fully on that side because they let hurts do it and then oh myles sanders You're an afterthought but here you go Here's here's a touchdown to keep you happy and then the jags on the side too I mean james robinson has looked great trevis etn is still kind of getting his feet under him But trevor laurence has really been you know the the cog of this offense to kind of make things go You love the money that they've spent we got on them all off season for paying all the money to christian curt Paying all the money to zade jones and it's paying off for these guys So I I do think this is a fun one I would be leaning jackson bill getting the six and a half points here Just because of the way the offense is playing and doug peterson knows this offense as well on the other side He knows how jaylon hurts likes the play I can see him being involved in the defensive meeting rooms this week So give me the six and a half there with the jaguars and unlike the buffalo baltimore game This is one where both sides can run the football james robinson has looked very good so far Obviously the eagles are the better rushing offense But the eagles or the jaguars are competent there and I think that that's important to know And I think that that is a key here if you want to be on the jags in a game where there could be some win It's important to kind of be cognizant of The ability to run the football and they actually can so I don't think that's a big concern here with the jaguars My numbers are on your side here ryan. I've got the eagles by 5.78 points That does lend itself towards betting the jag side here I don't think i'm going to do that yet. I think I want to hold off and see how things play out in terms of weather I'm probably just not going to be in on this game to be fully honest But if I were to bet I would be on your side there taking the jags the jags looked awesome I don't think this is totally unexpected like my win total numbers had them pretty high And I think I've bet them all three weeks so far I didn't get the win against the against washington because they lost by six there when I got a four But they've been good so far Back on them this week because my numbers like the eagles a lot too, but that's more so respect For the eagles and it is uh being skeptical of the jags. I think both these teams super fun You mentioned mvp matchup between lemar jackson josh allen might have another one in this one as well With trevor lorenz against jaylon hurts. Let's finish up here at the sunday night game It's the chiefs at the bucks chiefs a one and a half point favorite total is 45 and a half uh both these teams coming off tough losses, but buccaneers Might get chris godwin back. He did practice in a limited fashion on wednesday I would still probably assume he's not gonna go, but he might be able to go Russell gauge julio jones both practiced julio jones practiced on a wednesday, which is noteworthy in itself So the bucks get a bit a little bit healthier. What are you seeing in this one ryan? Yeah, so the bucks I mean you're talking about a team coming off of it I'm not gonna say devastating but a game that they feel like they probably should have won They had a chance to win at the end of the game there against the green bay packers They're coming off of lots brady is absolutely in insane numbers Coming off of a loss. He's 11 and three eight guests coming off a loss with tampa seven and two after a loss straight up And then, you know, you're looking at 17 and one after a loss as an underdog Or favorite under three, which was what they were last week one and a half on that spread Now my home's is is good after a loss two. He's a 10 and three against the spread But what i'm looking at here you got two factors one tampa bay is likely not playing this game at home They're gonna play this at a neutral site if they keep this on sunday night, which is set to be minnesota So we know that you know up there in minnesota like this this place allows for points to be scored You're talking about all the offensive weapons that brady could be getting back here Mike evans is going to be back from suspension as well, too So, you know, tom brady is just chomping at the bit to you know get these pieces back and really, you know Take the league by storm The buccaneers right now like you need to be looking at their number to win the nfc because you know The eagles are right now the favorite on the fandall sports book This is the last time that you'll probably be able to get the buccaneers at that price that they go in If they beat kansas city on prime time because every we know that people love the cheese They still believe in my home's But this is a get right spot for the for the buccaneers and it sounds weird because they're doing one But I do think that with all the pieces coming back with the way that this defense has played patrick my home's in the past They've actually covered the buccaneers have covered in both of the games against the chiefs under tom brady This is just setting up for for the buccaneer spot here. So i'm taking the one and a half I might be even looking at the straight up I think the over as well jim is interesting at 45 and a half Especially played on a neutral field because we know what the chiefs are going to do if they're down if they're up Like they are going to try and get this offense going to a lots been made in the media Patrick my home's is yelling at the offense coordinator on the sidelines very out of character for him Tom brady's been out of character or maybe in character all year But I do like points to be scored in this game and people are not looking at that with all the pieces and all that Is at stake here in this game on prime time. Let's ride with it All the way aboard with the over and with the buccaneer side Yeah, I think that the over is the most interesting play for me in this game I'm looking at my projected passing if they're my projected overall efficiency numbers They do lend itself towards an over here total should be around like I don't have a total model But like it should be around 47 or so just kind of Based on the projected offensive efficiency in this game neither team super slowed although the bucks have been Slower this year than they have been in the past Because it's been more run heavy part of them Maybe donovan smith missing time part of it maybe the wide receivers the receiver part make it better For this game, but you put that game in a dome Potentially again, it's not definitive yet, but potentially inside that'd be a good thing as well So over 45 and a half would be a place I would look as well I think that I like that if it's in tampa bay because wind speeds there are eight miles per hour Obviously the reason they'd move would be beyond the current wind speeds It'd be because of damage and stuff like that But I like the over in tampa bay if they play there Which means that I should like it a bit more the ones being indoors in uh, Minneapolis this weekend's over 45 and a half also pretty intriguing for me in that game Let's open up the board now ryan And we got a lot of other games across week four. What are the numbers catching your attention for this week? Yeah, so let's just talk about this arizona cardinals in carolina panthers game. I don't want to you talk about it I'm gonna mute myself. Although you talk. I'm I will have nothing to do with this game. Absolutely not Well, so I mean matt rule is just He's what what do they say in the industry jama donkey like whatever you want to call this guy like it's donkey on donkey action in this game Though that is true. So but when you look at the numbers with these two coaches, okay? So you got matt rule. He's three and ten as a favorite against the spread here Uh cardinals are one and a half point dogs Get it's on the road and I get this offense, you know, whatever they've been struggling But it makes no sense to me the way arizona has kind of looked in in these games He's just got some bad luck there the money line is plus 100 at least the last time I checked on the fan bill sports book like I just got the hammer the arizona side here cliff kingsbury He's 14 three and two against the spread as a row dog Like this is like you said these are two coaches that make it tough to trust But the numbers are on us that arizona is really getting, you know, they're getting shafted here by the books And I I mean maybe they know something we don't jump but I just got it to the lean tears on it They've been the most this it makes no sense Like if we were doing this before the season like this number would be Three to to the cardinals even with the with the panthers being at home Baker mayfield has not been able to you know, get anything going with this, you know with robbie anderson with dj more Um heard people who drafted dj more in tennessee, uh christian mccaffrey Let's not you know the elephant in the room is christian mccaffrey might not even play in the game I know he's been on the injury report pretty much all every week to start this season But matt rule did not seem confident in him when talking about him earlier this week and suiting up So that's another one where this could drastically change the line Um, you know even back to what it was this opened at arizona minus one and a half here and now they're dogs So, um, I gotta just hammer the arizona side this week on on things. Yeah, I've quit them Pretty happy about that. My numbers are showing value there. Uh, so I should agree with you, but I've been burned too many times I know like, you know, they did win one of those games for me, but it didn't feel good So hard pass on that one you mentioned mccaffrey and a lot of times we discussed how running backs don't impact the spread But because he has such a key role in the passing game I know not as many targets this year for maker mayfield, but he does open stuff up So because christian mccaffrey impacts the projected passing efficiency of the panthers actually think that that does matter and You were talking about matt rule not committing to him playing if I had to make a bet right now whether mccaffrey plays I'm taking the no side of that based on The reports that came out wednesday on that one So my numbers agree to you ryan. I think it's a it's a smart way to go But I can't do it personally with the cardinals plus one and a half. Any other numbers you like for week four Yeah, so we got the interesting Pulling up my my numbers here. We got the interesting, uh, london game with the minnesota vikings taken on the new orland sains early on On on sunday And I got a lot of money on the vikings just when you look at How favorites have done over london over the past couple of years? Those numbers stand out favorites are seven and three against the spread nine oh and one nine oh and one in london for non jaguars games is how the favorites have gone So, um, you know, I Minnesota has been a tough team for us all year This might be a team that I quit if they aren't able to to bring it home. I know they're like traveling Uh, camo cano said the team's not traveling until friday to get over there in london, which always seems weird So I know that uh, I know some of the sharps are are probably Looking at this game and probably it's a state where it might even be looking at the new orland side But james has been banged up. They have a lot of injuries on the new orland side I think that tasam hill was already taking second team snaps. So that's just go to show you how they feel about james one since health in this game And uh, you know everything that's been talked about with minnesota, especially with the prime time Letdown spot. I think that they try and bounce back here and get things going Overseas so looking at that line as well too and a good thing from a body clock perspective It's it's not it's not tire cure cousins yet because it's uh, 330 p.m. Eastern effectively when they're playing in london because it's at 9 30 So it's not sleeping kirk yet. Uh, the east coast dad's and it doesn't set in for the midwestern They're like, he's fine. You know, he could live. He's probably 330 330 is like picking up the kids from school He's he's that's his zone. That should be kirk cousins like prime time prime time. Exactly Exactly. Yeah, it doesn't it doesn't make us feel good the way that the Vikings have started things off But this is one of those things jim we like we're still early enough in this season We don't want to overreact um too crazy and and you know losing to the philadelphia eagles We might look back on that exactly like hey, that was one of the most respectable You know losses on their schedule because of what philly's doing by the philly schedule gym I mean is absolutely outlandish like I think they're going to be favorite in almost every game To finish off this season. I know they pay the green bay packers I can't remember if that's at home or on the road But that might be the only game that they're not favored in this schedule is an absolute joke So shout out to everybody that had you know eagles nfc tickets that had eagles division tickets I'm one of those guys. Thank you Hurts MVP or no, do you have a Hurts MVP ticket or no? I do have Hurts MVP as well. Uh, which is 40 or where where were you? I believe I got it at 25 to one When I got it was still in the still in the summer, but he was just you know The 40 to one was absolutely ridiculous and I don't know if I could I didn't talk myself into it early enough But uh the 25 to one I'll take that It is one of those things where like, you know the way lamar is playing the way josh allen is playing Um, and if he's playing against hurts himself, is he playing against lesser competition? He could end up getting like often to player of the year I think so i'm kind of just letting that weight out, but the eagles bets are looking nice I'm pretty sure I did hear that they're favored in every game as of right now I don't I didn't fact check this so if i'm wrong. I'm sorry, but like i'm pretty sure I heard that as well So um, I think that that is correct. So eagles pretty fun going forward I I agree through the vikings that loss not too bad. They played really well against green bay They rallied against detroit. Uh, I have a lot of trust in their like Infrastructure as far as like sports science goes. I know that was more so based on when rick spielman was there and that's no longer the case but Kevin o'Connell uh from the shaw mcvay tree if they decided to fly off friday I i'm inclined to trust that being the correct decision So we'll see how that plays out over in london on sunday That is all that we have here for this week for preview podcast as mentioned that we have our college football week five podcast up talking through favorite bets from that and also our player prop preview will go up tomorrow with jay jzakreis And breaking down the top props across week four over at fan dual sports book You can check out ryan williams on twitter at ryan Alexander underscore w ryan Thank you so much for your time. That's always and we'll talk to you once again next week Thank you jim. I can't wait to get after with you on week five and see uh, who screwed you over In week four, it's always a fun one pre-show If i'm guessing who uh, let me guess if i'm guessing who did it this week Probably jim all williams just gonna put that out there. I'm gonna guess that it's gonna be him I'm just assuming just love it based on the way things have happened. I think it'll be him again Check out ryan on twitter at ryan Alexander underscore w. I am at jim sonnis. Thank you all for tuning in Good luck to your bets for the uh, since 90 versus miami game for tonight We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down some props week number four This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network