 You know, right now, you know, this is going into day five of the Q's channel, 67 Up, 62 Down. Eventually, something will break, right? Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process and own your future. Hey guys, good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader.com nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody is doing well. Day two, 2023, all is good, right? Like my mom always says, no news is good news, but there was a little bit of news, some expected news coming from the December FOMC minutes. We'll get to that in a second, but let's talk about the broad market, right? Let's talk about the kind of the broader view, kind of a microcosmic view in a macro bubble. Again, the macro view is still below the 50-day moving average, and I think if you've been watching this broadcast in nausea, we've been discussing the ramifications of what happens generally in a bare scenario below the 50-day moving average. As we always highlight, nothing goes straight down. There will be pockets of strength, debt-cad bounces, and it's kind of playing out that way. It's been kind of playing out that way since 2022. So again, we kind of documented the data that 80% of all days spent last year, 75-80% were to the red side versus the green side. And so far, you can see here with your own eyes, out of the last 14 days that we spent below the 50-day moving average in the last couple of weeks, you've only had one, two, three, four, five days put in a higher close that opens five out of 14. I know my math is not great, but that's not great, right? It's not a really good thing or to stand on the bull case. Having said that, we are stuck in this little bit of a tight channel, right? If you've been watching this broadcast just in the last couple of days, we talked about the scenario of the bulls need a close on the queues above 267. So far, they're not able to do that, but on the flip side, the bearers can't crack this 262 level, which we've been talking about as well. And you can see that now four days in a row, one, two, three, four days in a row, right? The big, big number, guys, going forward and continues to go forward is this 262 level on the queues. If the bears eventually get through that number, the 262s, yes, they're the selling will fall. So the bears need to get below 262. The bulls need to get above 267 on a close, and that will reclaim the 50-day moving average with a measured potential move to 272 and then 273. We'll see, right? Bears take control over 272. I believe if that happens, if they close below 262, we will get a pushback into the lows of October the 13th, which is 254. You know, note, date of note, we, December FOMC minutes were today, two o'clock. You had a little bit of volatility. You had the market up. You had the market down. Hawkers' sentiment as expected, you know, nobody really thought that they were going to start lowering rates or even give any hints of lowering. So it looks like the continuation of, you know, some sort of Fed hikes will continue into the foreseeable future of 2023. The notable thing here is price action. I always like to, I always like to look at the market from relative strength, relative weakness. And the one thing that we did notice today, despite, you know, some strength, again, some strength, not a lot of huge strength, but some strength names. The Nasdaq was up 71 points today, which is not crazy, which is not small, which is not big. It was just kind of there, kind of sitting in the channel. And you can make an argument and you can make a very, very easy argument if you are on the bear side, that the longer we stay below this 267 level on the cues below the 10-day moving average, eventually this 262 will crack. If you kind of look at the reference point, going back to, let me see where it was, kind of going back to here. This whole channel here, this was like the second to last time we lost the 50-day moving average. That was going back to January, February, March, April, right? You see how we went sideways, right? We went sideways for about two weeks. And ultimately we kept on building, building, building below the 50-day moving average. And ultimately we did crack because the sentiment was sell us, sell buys. Here we have a little bit of different dynamics. Here we're way below the 50-day moving average. And we're kind of stuck between the 10-day supply and the 5-day support. So something is going to give the next couple of days. Tomorrow will be day five in this channel. Hopefully we'll get a little bit more clarity. If not by tomorrow, then Friday, usually you'll have a weekly expiration. We'll start getting things into more gear. And eventually one side we'll get to confirm. The one thing that I keep on bouncing off my head, the one thing I keep on paying attention to is the leaders, right? It feels like every single day there's a leader or two or three, no matter what the market does, whether the market continues to be rotation to the downside, whether there's a dead cab bounce like we saw today. The one thing that I continue to see is the market leaders, especially the heavyweights, they continue to be weak, right? No matter what the market does. And today was a perfect case in point. Microsoft obviously stood out. Microsoft got a downgrade today or estimates cut. Something from UBS I believe was this morning. But they got cut this morning. Down pretty significant, right? To the bull's credit, they could have turned around and laid down after the Microsoft downgrade and took everything down, which it didn't. Surface-wise, that's a pretty good thing. Although, again, they couldn't reclaim the 10-day moving average, so we're kind of stuck in a little bit of Delta Neutral. You had Amazon this morning. You had some pretty aggressive selling this morning. Again, market rebound, a bit of bend. Again, you should have rallied, right? One of those situations that if the market is strong, why aren't these stocks rallying? You look at Google, right? And again, these are on these small, generic companies. These are big cap companies. This is the Kremlin of the Kremlin, right? These are the kings of the jungle, and they can't rally. So it's something to kind of watch for the next couple of days. You did get a little bit of balance today, a little bit of relief rally today in Tesla shares. Tesla put in a classic inside day. Yesterday, it lost 16. Today, it gained five. Again, it gained back a third of what it lost yesterday. Again, the key level here is going to be this channel for the last couple of days that I will be watching. If Tesla wants to get going again, you see this 10-day moving average, the same kind of case here with the 10-day of the queues, the same thing kind of mirroring the 10-day of Tesla. If Tesla wants to rally the same way that the queues need to rally, they need to reclaim the 10-day moving average and kind of break this whole cycle of selling. But again, we'll see. Again, even in this strength day, despite Tesla gaining back about a third of its losses from yesterday, we still saw some pretty aggressive put-buying end of the week, 100 puts notably going off there as well. But we'll see. Again, I'm pretty confident to say in this type of environment, like I said in every video, you have to be prepared on both sides of the market. Just the same way, there are a lot of weak names that are still just refused to rally. We can rally on dead cat bounce days. There are still stocks that continue to do very well. You have names like Netflix. Netflix had a really, really big run today. Meta continues to be really, really strong as well. The names that continue to suffer are these cloud names. You saw Snow today get absolutely massacred. Again, you can make a case for Snow that it was in the same sentiment, the same breadth as Microsoft. But the point is you're still seeing a lot of weakness despite a lot of good strength in the overall markets, at least today that didn't go down. Even Apple that broke down yesterday. Again, another example of an inside day, Apple had a nasty as day yesterday and only was able to rebound an only fraction of what we saw the day before. So the bulls, again, they need to do a lot of work. If you're going to get bullish in this environment, one, you have to take necessary baby steps for the market to give you technical reason to do so. Obviously, for the bulls to get super duper ultra bullish, we're going to need to reclaim back the 50-day moving average. We're still 13 points away from that. Before we start putting the cart in front of the horse, can at least the bulls reclaim the 10 baby steps? That's all we want. All we want right now is for the bulls to reclaim the 10-day moving average to start inching back higher or the bears to reclaim the 5-day moving average, which is kind of like a pretty big standoff here, reclaim the 262 so we can go lower. There's going to be a little bit more data coming in for the next couple of days on the economic front. As we know, that is going to move the needle. It's going to move the markets. I think, again, if you're a brand new trader to this business within the last couple of years, what really did tell us and what really continues to guide us is the idea just to be prepared. Tomorrow, going into tomorrow, the fact that we are so tight, I'm watching some longs. I'm watching some shorts just because we are in this range. Once we get out of that range, we get above the 67 level. Yeah, there's definitely names I like. I mean, look at names like, for example, like Starbucks. If we do rally, this thing looks pretty good. If we do rally, Netflix continues to be pretty good. If we do rally, Meta continues to be pretty good. At least they're above the channels and moving higher. But on the flip side, you have the opposite as well. I'm still watching Tesla to see which way it's going to break. The video is kind of in the middle of their channels. AMD is kind of sitting in the middle of their channels just like the Qs. You're going to see a lot of mirror images of the Qs and a lot of NASDAQ and 100 members. Microsoft, who knows? Maybe you get a day two sell-off today. The only reason to stop is to stop right at the linear regression line. So we're going to keep an eye on that as well. So that's kind of where we are right now. This is going into day five of the Qs channel, 67 up, 62 down. Eventually, something will break, right? But we're going to have to be a little bit more patient. Certain days, you're going to be a little bit more active. Certain days, you're going to be a little more passive, watching, watching option flows, so forth and so on, to watching everything to kind of play out. If you look at today's pivots, again, very few, right? Very few. They were mostly at the open. Again, here is a perfect scenario of predominantly sell bias, right? I don't think we had anything more above Amazon. Yeah, I mean, that's it. I mean, these are the pivots for the day. You had snow, got absolutely hammered this morning. 135 with builds below can flush. Here was snow, right? Here was snow, took down this whole 135 channel and all the way down to 128. You know, I actually like this thing. This thing starts building below tomorrow, below 128. Let me just put this on my screen so I don't forget it for tomorrow. Okay. Yeah, let's keep an eye on snow. It's a one from 35 to 28. If it confirms this 28, who knows if they start selling and this thing could get down to 122. Here is Microsoft, again, cut this morning by UPS. 233.87 is the bottom of the daily channel. If it builds below, it can flush more. Also note, 232.81 is the pre-market lows. Needs to confirm as well. Microsoft got destroyed. I mean, that's basically it. I mean, they got destroyed. So it took down this whole 233.87. You could see it by the pre-market. Here was the whole channel here at 233.87. It just got just absolutely destroyed. Went all the way down to 26. Tesla, I was watching for more. You know, yesterday was the big pivot on Tesla, 1750 downside. You know, I was looking for this sneaky pivot today at 107. Actually, you know what? I'm still going to watch this 107 a little tomorrow. Why not, right? Why not? I mean, it doesn't come tomorrow. I mean, it becomes the next day, but it's definitely a channel I want to watch. Obviously, it had a dead cat bounce back as well. Like I said earlier, moved back a third of his gains. Netflix, very, very strong Netflix. I wish Netflix was a little bit more thicker. It just trades super thin, but you know, it is what it is. So here's Netflix. 301 was the daily channel, right? So it took down this whole daily channel went all the way up to 311. Good job for all you guys who traded that as well. And Amazon, again, there was a lot of weakness there, considering the market did dead cat bounce. You did see continuous weakness. 8420, if it builds below, can flush. Not a big move on Amazon, but here was the 8420, right? So here was the 8420, or was it right here? Here it is. 8420, not a big move. Went down about a dollar, and then it's kind of, snapped back up, but the point is it's still closed below yesterday's channel, which is something of a concern. So we'll see. Okay, we'll see you guys. Again, right now, the channels on the cues are super tight. If you look at the spies, if you look at the SPYs, again, we're stuck kind of in the same channels here. Look how tight this is. You know, you have 388 to the upside, and you have this whole channel here, 377 to the downside. So we're stuck. You can see here, we're stuck. Something has to give. This is the where, you know, we use the word patients and discipline and being an adult, right? Just letting the market. Don't guess, right? We don't know which way the market's going to break. You have an opinion, right? Who cares about your opinion? Who cares about my opinion? Same thing we've been saying for years and years and years. Let the market dictate which way it's going to blow, and eventually we will be right on the confirmations because price action is going to tell us we're right, not because our opinion says so. So guys, have a great night, everybody. God bless. Let's see the way we break tomorrow and let's see how much value we have on that. Take care. Have a great night.