 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Hazel Chapman. Call now, toll-free at 1-877-927-6648. Today, December the 6th, and we're looking at, this is really a big move. We were anticipating from the Wednesday low, where the dark test of 34,022, right on the 200-beard moving average, this is why I always say, don't ignore certain technical tools that can give you a really good heads up. You don't need them when you don't need them, but when you see it and they give something that could indicate a trend reversal, support level, resistance level, that's when they're important. Why would I even think about a 200-beard moving average on the 8th of November at 36,565 for the Dow? But here we are, leg E to the downside, hits the left side, right side price time match, a day early, that's this arch formation with a plum line from the little doji candle top on the 8th, and it comes down very sharply in a sharper time, in a one-day early timeframe. In other words, it had one more day, maybe two to go before it hit the left side low, in this case 34,000, I think it was somewhere around 33,000, it went lower, it went to 34,022, and it turned around very nicely. And now we're anticipating that the Dow has some rotational internal strength within it. A lot of times as I went through stock, after stock over the weekend, after I did my overview for my subscribers on my overview video on Saturday, I said I'm going to take some time, I'm going to go through all these different areas. I see weakness in the QQQ and the SMH, the semiconductor index, and that should allow the Dow very oversold to have a decent balance, maybe to the 35,000, maybe even 35,200. And then we'll see if there's an arch formation and a pullback, or if there's, oh, I wanted to show you this, right here. You know, I always talk about bad news. The market doesn't decline unless there's bad news, and it takes the bad news as bad news. In other words, there are times where, like, water of a duck's back, it doesn't really care about the news, and then that very same news can impact the market the next day. Well, I talk about the dark news cloud cover using the Dow dating chart, and this goes on and on, and I can show you this game way back years. And what happens is that as that news envelops the market, so you start to see some weakness, and that weakness can last time, it can last in price, it can last in price and time, and in this particular instance, we've been basically digesting huge gains all the way from about May of this past year. Yes, we've gone higher, but look at each one of those. It has had this arch formation pullback, and this time, we went all the way to key support level, and that chapter with inside check, propellant zone is working right now, and you've got a little bit of a bounce right there. You see this pink line? That pink line is the 9-speed moving average below the 14. That's saying it's in a cell mode. A lot has to happen before it can turn up and become very positive. So this, I'm treating as a bounce. All right, let's get out of this. Get back to our nitty gritties. Just wanted to show what I'm looking at as a bigger picture. Look at the weekly chart. Cell mode in the weekly chart went right to the chapter with inside track propellant zone. It has a nice bounce. Nectis negative stochastics down to 51% on balance volume. Weekly is negative. But not yet has the price crossed underneath the 9 period moving under the 14 period moving average is still green. We've got a whole week to go. We've got not even an hour into the first day of the first part of the week. So let's look at this and say you can see where the resistance levels are. You can see the rotation that's going on. And all I can say is we don't have to discuss the monthly chart. Although there's a good chance that we don't make an all-time high in December at 36,005. One point is actually less than that. Higher than the previous high to extend this leg E. That we actually do make a peak E. And then we have to decide is there to have instant restart within three bars so far it's in play. And that says you can now start and you move to the upside that goes if it recycles higher to E slash A, F slash B, etc. But in the meantime all I'm saying is that the Dow daily is in a sell mode. I would love to have played the upside. We tried to play it on Friday. It had lovely entrances. And then there was this one sudden sell-off in the afternoon before it rallied sharply. Well, that's the way it is. And we were stopped out on long positions. And now we're looking at it touching the 14-period. No, it's touched the 9-period moving average. And then broken above. And it's just stopped at the 35,116 level, which is in fact the black 14-period exponential moving average. And to turn from pink to green, oh, a lot has to happen. You have to see the Dow holding above 35,500 probably for a couple of days. All right. So I'm saying sell mode in the daily, sell mode in the weekly, a lot has to happen to change that scenario. Now let's go on. S and P taking a little bit of time here because there's no rush. We need to be looking at this and saying, OK, treat each index for its own merits and demerits. And this particular instance, you've now got the S and P up 35 at 45,73. But look at that red candle engulfing in a way. But I don't really put much stock into engulfing candles as much as I do other things. Look, the MACD is really weak, although the histogram is starting to prove just a tad. On-balance volume is pulled back sharply. Circassians go from under 20% to 18%. It needs to get to about 23% with the price pushing about 45, sorry, 46,10. And this point is at 45,77. That's 300 Dow points, maybe 30-something points to go. Now we've got John in fully. I just saw. Thank you very much, Al. John, how are you? Basil, thanks for taking the call. I'm very well. I hope you're doing the same. Very good. Thank you. Say, as you're talking right now about the S and P 500, a very specific question I've got is this on that S and P 500 monthly chart. The monthly chart is only in leg B. Could be a peak B if, of course, December doesn't make higher highs. Yes. And I've come to the achievable chance. Anything in your long history using these wave counts, 500 up there at the Chapman Wave. So to answer you as specifically as possible, I have, I'm not going to say I've never seen it. I've never seen it in the S and P, yes. But have I seen it in other areas? Yes. Occasionally you get a stock that is on its own trajectory and then all of a sudden something goes wrong and lo and behold, the next thing you know is giving back a huge amount of points. But just to answer this part of the question as specifically as possible, the answer is no. So, but the other fact is that we need to look at, if you want to hold on, we can talk about that. I'll be back soon. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years, a frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC. Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's Daily Market Newsletter, Market Insights is published every morning when the markets open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed. These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights, today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money-back guarantee at TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. 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Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at tfnn.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be. TFNN. Educating Investors. Call now. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. Hi everyone, we're back and the Dow is actually up 560. It is a monster group to the upside very quick. Now let's just do this. In the Champions League methodology we try to identify the lowest low bar and we can't eat successively higher peak. We alphabetize them sequentially uppercase on the way up, lowercase on the way down. The peaks on the upside are very, very important in the labeling and the Champions League notation. On the downside, there are other aspects that are important. I use technical analysis as well as pattern recognition to identify lows. It isn't just the notation to the downside. So when I'm looking at this, you can see it goes from a starting point you have higher peaks. If there's a pullback that takes out the starting point it just restarts. There's no question about it. It's not that you can say A-O, then that'll be a B-No. You have to start a new buy signal altogether and what you want is to see a buy signal upgraded to a buy mode. The implication immediately is that it's going to go to four higher peaks. So John is in the den. He's hung up. He said, I'm gonna listen in the den. I know he's got a lot of other work to do at the same time. I appreciate that. So what I'm looking at here is in the Chapman Way methodology a buy signal to a buy mode should take you to at least, it can go higher, E, F and G. Seven peaks to D, then eight, nine, it can go even higher. But what you want is add D, the fourth highest peak. That's your obligation in the Chapman Way methodology to go from a buy signal upgraded to a buy mode. The implication immediately says there should be at least four higher peaks. Make it as simple as possible. At that fourth highest peak, other things can happen. Sometimes you can go sideways and go to a peak E and even completely recycle to a brand new buy mode. Not the point. The point is to get you to that D and then there are other techniques. So what we're looking at here is the doji, the two doji candles are 4718. Back at around about the 7th of November, pulls back, holds the nine-period moving average, uses that, it walks the nine and it goes to a slightly higher, 47, 43, 83 on the 22nd and it pulls back. And I showed you that there was a discrepancy between the technicals on the left side around about the 7th of November and the all-time high was made on the 22nd, how the technicals were so much weaker. Now you've seen the pullback. Number one. Number two is you can get to a D as you do in the weekly chart, hit a resistance level, pull back, and yet the nine is so strongly above the 14 that even though the MACD is stochastic and everything else is weak, as long as you've got that strength, that internal strength with the nine-period moving average sharply over the 14, you can keep going higher. When you went straight back to the resistance line in the S&P weekly chart, stopped at that 47, 18 level, pulled back for two weeks. Third week you go to the all-time high of 47, 43, 83 on the 22nd. Here again, the technicals were very weak and it's pulled back sharply. So this says to me the weekly chart of the S&P is only at a cell signal because it went underneath and did close on the 14-period moving average, and the technicals are weak enough to say, well, let's see what happens here. So, a date is in a cell mode, weekly is in a cell signal. Monthly chart has that leg D. Remember, we can't even talk about it being any kind of a top because we haven't got any signals at all in the monthly chart. You've got all of December to go to go about 47, 43, 83. Is it possible, anything's possible? I'm suspecting that we're going to have a couple of bouts coming up of pretty intense news-related market-weak sectors and we'll see what happens there. But all I can say is that at this particular point the weekly chart is still positive even though it's a cell signal. It's holding well. The daily chart has a nice little turnaround here. That monthly chart there is nothing that I can see. At this particular point it even suggests that the monthly is going into a cell signal. So that says in 2022 there should be higher peaks to come. Higher highs. So that answers very simply the question from John. Have I ever seen a major move to the upside only in a leg B and even in a leg C in a monthly chart that fails completely by going below the starting point. I think there's a significant correction from the 3393 February high of 2020 plunging down to the 2191 law of March the 23rd of 2020 to take that out. I mean really the end of the world would have to happen. I just don't see it at all. It's just none of my radar in the least. I think they're going to be higher highs to come one way or the other even with some very bad moves made for a number of really key participants and we'll see if the market is debilitated by that. Somehow to me the market is a much bigger instrument than any political women or anything like that. It's a super tanker and super tankers don't turn on a dime they need a lot to turn. When you look 30 minutes later you can see a super tanker maybe just starting to turn whereas a speedboat could have zigzag ways. Think of that as the speedboat the weekly is kind of your cruise lines that takes you to the island and back and the Monty is your 60,000 meals made for the passenger cruise line that's something completely different. Alright, here we go. So that's the estimate. Let's just go on I hope that answers the question. I'll make it real clear a close in the next six weeks we'll see what the index 100 says to me. This could be a lot more serious 4184 is the 14 period exponential moving average in the monthly chart and even then that's all it says is probably in the monthly chart I call that a sell signal. Let's go to the QQQ we're looking at the index 100 and now it's up a dollar 20 at 384. One of the weaker of the indices and if you look at the estimators also coming back a little bit where is that from the low but it's still down 571 295.49 another sad tale here for us we just nailed this exactly right on the day of the high in terms of the short but the only instrument I was able to use other than shorting and a lot of people will see to me it's real tough to get the shares to short the estimators could you use something else you could use the three times short the S-O-X-S and we just perfectly position and each time we sort of break even and then took a little bit of a loss in very small position on Friday and then it just turned to the upside and then S-O-X-S even today we missed by three pennies three or four pennies no four pennies going along and here it is at 425 I get 445 in the S-O-X-S what can I say I apologize to subscribers we've nailed it perfectly but it's the actual implementation when you've got something that moves so quickly holding the estimators if I had shorted like I wanted to on right there on the estimators semiconductor ETF right there the day of the high of 318.82 22nd I think let me just double check yeah 22nd of November we still had that position and all I can say is that the semiconductors are weak and that's important because they need markets up and down guys can you vote yep I will A-E-X-P-E question about Expedia and how much of a perpetrator can you up that ball that's it Are you having fun creating the markets with trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with become an Apex predator in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den trading room only at tfnn.com The Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas Join the den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world Subscribers to the Tiger's Den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately 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can't get in somewhere a little blip goes and you just lose all power and everything comes to a dead stop all right let's look at this closely Expedia just a question about whether I would show it but I actually wanted to show some of the techniques involved here see this this right here is a news related rogue wave spike to the upside and that is about November the 7th it suddenly pops from the 159 60 area to just over 190 and then what does it do it goes under the 200 period moving average remember you keep these things there you don't need them when you turn you need them and now we're looking at the magnitude of the 200 period moving average of 157 EXPE trading up 10.76 34 right now and what we're looking at usually this is an earnings related thing we're going to see what happens to let's look at Marvell because earnings related Friday that's the reason why it stopped us out of that position that we had I'm sure because everything else is very weak Marvell there it is so it's giving back some it took it took out the Fridays low by a fraction now it's back inside this is so far very positive action let's go back to EXPE EXPE yep there we go and this is a very strong move up today so I don't I have no idea what the question is what I am going to say is this base of support right here the fact that it had earnings very good earnings and then it came back and even followed up nicely the next day for three days it was way above that gap up high of the 6th or 7th and then what happens is so it's down down down then it has an island reversal an island reversal is something to at least respect it's just another technique you just put there you don't have to do anything about it and it says basically to pull that and to go all the way back into the 170 let's call it 77 area and it's a 166 it's 11 points higher it's going to need more than just a day of moving to the upside this is also expiry of online travel agency that's what I'm calling it right now I know what the official title is this is in an area that says with all the COVID variants are people going to get back well I think people are getting really tired of staying indoors but they're also now a little bit afraid because the the the latest variant the South African variant of course they quickly changed that I become to a different name and now what we're looking at is the variant could have some negative implications especially for travel but on a one-day basis look at this beautiful move up and it says that if Expedia is able I'm giving it the entire week if it doesn't close this week under 160 but in fact it's able to rally by Wednesday above 169, 170 in that area and can close at that area or even higher I would suggest to you that Expedia's got a little bit more on the way to go on the upside but then I think it's going to be impact and then what I would be looking at is and I'm going to draw this in now is that in a sense there's a kind of a rectangle formation and it's going to be stuck in that and I'm even going to a lower low and this is the range we'll see you in another week or so but this is the range I'm anticipating for Expedia one of the reasons being that monthly chart leg D I've seen enough of these that have started to have a little bit more import and all I can say is let's let it tell us this is just the first hour of the hour and five minutes of the week beautiful move to the upside holding at the high so far let's see what happens and if you're along and you got along in the last couple of days I said just raise your stop I would normally I'd say take a little bit off I'd give it just a little bit more I'd make one part of your position I'd have a stop at about one sixty four sixty that's at one sixty six thirty right now just if it pulls back under that maybe it starts to stop but right now it's acting extremely well and to me this is a little bit of a little bit of a good sign and if you look at the IYT very strong move this is what you wanted to see in the eye shares transportation index nice move up it's up at seven dollars at two sixty nine trying to fill the gap from about a week a week and a half ago and if you look at jets which is the which is the US airline index nice move off a low that's worth following it and also for all of the says extremely overbought let's see if we have leadership in these areas question I got a question about next is QQQ and the S O X S O X S well let me just show you the QQQ is not great at all but it is up eighteen cents a three eighty three point two eight and this is to me in this rotation that I've been talking about in the selective rotation through the different sectors where loads are made in unison like March the twenty-third of last year cups are made in sequence usually in sequence very short in tops can become essential but more serious ones which I think this is this is in terms of dating charts also for the weekly charts is oh now we've got shock he's on the line hi shocky how are you a battle how are you doing I'm well thank you so I saw you were talking about the QQQ me you know S M H is one of the things that I wanted to look at and then what to do with the X O X S and then if you have a chance to look at Sophie S O F I because that's still the gap on Friday at two cent gap and it looks like it has some you know starting a you know potential you know upwards trend now on on on a great leg a so so let's let's just do this together the pattern that I always look for and you know this very well since you've taken many of courses is right here this H pattern I call the dreaded H when it's on the way down because it's red because if it takes out that left side low it could become quite serious we saw what happened there's the H pattern that I was talking about in the SMH is a semiconductor ETF trading down five at 295 you can see what happened from the 318.82 top in the 22nd and pullback sharply ran up to only a peak a we call the great peak acres that then failed took out the left side low and now we're below that and we have two days in which today's today's be the second day sometimes I give a three in this case I'll give a three to close above the left side high sorry the left side low let me just move this away and that right now is that is a two nothing there was three yeah that was 297.89 and then ran up to three into the 314 now what's really important about this is that we're trading the 295 so if it closes above 297.89 in the next two days it says it could rally it probably won't go to to the major high that was at 315 about four days ago but the high that was made on Monday on Friday at 309.44 that area should be strong resistance and you want to hold on oh yes absolutely that's a 595 will be right are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area including the surrounding St. Petersburg Tampa and Clearwater markets Tiger real estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay 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going to give us a lot of clues but the days young I don't really want to talk about it until the day is done but I'll just say that if at any point even intraday it starts to slide under 294 it's at 296.35 I would say for about I would say 70 to 90 minutes there's a real good chance it's going to test within a day to the 297.54 low that was made so now what we're looking at is for the information that we wanted to look at here to garner we're looking at the H pattern that says it's made a sharply lower low and it's extended it's not just the lightning bolt A to B it's much deeper in the in the chapter wave H pattern but it's a candle that we have to look at as what is the time frame what is a daily candle so we really can only talk about it when the day is done but the weekly candle has made a g-snash C in the estimations I must say over the I'm trying to make a list and I'll show you one Friday on technical Friday of the unusual patterns that I've seen over the last I'd say three weeks in so many charts even this look at this weekly chart which went from a low round about the 220 area it goes peak A peak B and then it pulls back and then it has very small peak A pull but this is a weekly chart peak A one regress leg B goes to peak B one regress that goes to C then it goes to a D then it pulls back pops to an E then pulls back and goes to 276 69 a leg F and then it pulls back quite sharp and then it just has this sudden leg to the upside which looks like a Chapman wave road wave and it's a g-snash C so these are really unusual patterns that especially in weekly charts of a major index in this case the semiconductor the monthly chart nothing wrong here just very steadily has gone up all the technicals are very good and I have to even admit that on the weekly chart the technicals are not bad at all so all I'm saying is that this is a excuse me the only I mean the 9 EMA is right there at the 14 it just is not crossed over yet in the daily chart is that correct or am I reading that right yep within a day or so the daily chart there's a good chance we don't know but we just anticipate there's a good chance that it will cross negative and that will confirm the cell mode and that's still we have to still look at the weekly as a separate thing now what's really important is does your wide pattern ever become a W a la Larry's 135 absolutely this is a pattern I've discussed over and over again I've I haven't called it the 135 I call it the U shaped pattern that goes to a W so we'll talk about that I've got charts to talk that was a question in the den it just came up appropriately now let me just say so the SMH is it's really important if there is a close in the next during this week if there is a close in the semiconductors below 396 I'm going to make it 393 I make it 395 I give it a little rub 395 that's really what you're looking for to say okay now they're in a a big digestive phase it doesn't mean to say they have to to scratch to the downside but it means that the upside is now very very limited digested rotates through the difference stocks within that sector now look at the QQQ the index 100 trading vehicle and what we're looking at is very poor action today down 43 cents the 38273 you know you got your docusigns you just got so many stocks on docusigns trying to up 8 and 143 made a smash from Thursday in the 30s it had a little bit of a pullback and went down to 131.51 on Friday so there's just too many stocks in this category of the index the tech sector that are just taking separately but each one is now starting to as a handful we're pushing the QQQs to all time highs now you've got just a handful that are starting to slowly wear away at the charts so that you can see the impact that it's having on the QQQ because leadership look at Apple Apple is trading right now up 3.84 and what's really important about it is if I can just get to the data is that the data says there should be a leg D just everything about it says that 170.30 high that was made four sessions ago that should be tested slightly to the upside maybe get to the D and then you've got Apple maybe ready for a bit of a consolidation that helps you the only thing too is on so far quickly it filled the gap on Friday a 2 cent gap and it looks like it's starting to make its way up from here I don't know if that's going to be a gray leg A what are your thoughts on that so far every time I hear it pronounce I say is that with SOFI or SOFI digital financial services with mobile applications IPO just about 10 months or so screams up to the 28 area and then plunders down to the 14s and rallies up to the 24 just keeps zigzagging and it had this peak F top of 24.51 round about November the 7th I don't think it was let me just get the exact date November the 11th at 24.65 just a perfect look at this the perfect arch formation in a shorter time frame that's usually not good news because it means that it's coming down quicker than it went up and therefore the selling pressure is greater and the 200 period moving average is 17.45 it's up 25 cents so I would not take this off your radar I just think this particular area right now is an area under pressure peak D in the weekly chart I just as a trade that's different but as a position I think it needs more time and I'll come back to it maybe tomorrow or the next day but right now I think it needs a lot of work to try to establish some kind of a base yeah the technicals aren't there yet I just thought for a trade or something but you know what I'll give you a show tomorrow or something where we'll take a look at it tomorrow the next day alright thank you very much for calling always appreciate it so folks in 2005 I appreciate all you do Basil thank you thank you Sharki so 595 in the daily up 40 in the 41 in the S&P a couple of things that I promise myself I would do I spent so much time on this one particular chart what was it and I thought I'd send it to subscribers this morning I did this I did the the dark cloud news cover and then I chose because I don't for some reason anymore I don't get the wheelchair I have to I don't know how I'm going to find it I don't know how I'll find it but I spent some time on something that had 5000 stuff what was it I'll try to find it at some point I'll find it and all the reason why I wanted to bring it up was it too was confirming that there's a rotational correction going on and some I don't get the new york stock exchange and trade session just doesn't have it anymore so I don't have that so a couple of questions here I'll get to as we come back in the Tiger YouTube and also questions that were sent to me ARQQ yes be real careful it's a 3254 it's down 487 make the leg eat this is a peaky digest the phrase keep it on your list as a buy but not yet hold on I'll be right back sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent 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mortgage program pays 7% per year paid monthly on secured high value buildable properties in St. Petersburg, Florida the investment is for four years paying 7% per year or $7,000 for a $100,000 invested your investment is secured by high value real estate in St. Petersburg, Florida your investment can be anywhere from $100,000 to $500,000 do you want to make $1,000 per year on $100,000 invested or $7,000 on a secured target first mortgage the target first mortgage program may be just the program for you the target first mortgage program pays 7% per year paid monthly for more information you can call 877-518-9190 that's 877-518-9190 this segment is brought to you by Think or Swim for more information just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com let me just get to all these questions fabulous questions the TLT I've got this is a leg C at 152.99 the high on Friday yes it could go to a D everything about it says it should still go to a D I'll do a little bit more work on it tomorrow to explain a couple of things Nike yes the question is can the reverse Y pattern become a very positive thing and what about Nike look yes it doesn't act like Larry's 135 well I've had this pattern just years and decades but look how it's failing here Nike but it's not breaking down I say that I think a Nike might have a better Christmas than people think but I don't know about the goods if they able to deliver the goods but I think this is an area that a lot of people would like to buy all those sports equipment sports clothes all that sort of thing so Nike to me is okay but I have yet it's this is failing it's used up too much time it hasn't even got closer the 177 area so that's another thing I'll talk a little more tomorrow GNRC in the in the Tiger YouTube this is Generac Generac holding generators well this is one that you would expect this is the season where this is what it usually does but it made it all time high on the 2nd of November a 524.31 and it's plunged peak E in the daily peak F in the weekly chart peak E if there's no new high in the monthly chart this is just telling us maybe it's not going to be such a bad winter I don't know all I'm saying is below the 200 I'll do a little more work on it and tomorrow we'll come back to it what was the other one a firm AFRM that had a that was a darling and now it's an undarling but it's on the 200 period moving average yeah this is almost like what Sharki was talking about could this have a little bit of a bounce like Sophie yep this is a firm holdings interest free and interest bearing loans etc it could have a bounce I don't see it ready for anything more than just a bit of a bounce it needs more work to make something maybe we'll talk a little bit more about tomorrow stay tuned you will later present are coming up you've got a tiger this is you've got think a swim with Kevin Hanks you've got we've got Steve Rhodes, Dave White and Tom O'Brien check out both we've got my date news there we'll see you tomorrow we'll do the news