 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning markets kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good morning everybody. Happy Friday. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN. Thanks so much for starting your trading day right here. 9.06 a.m. Eastern time. We got about 24 minutes to go until the start of trading. We have some more economic data out this morning. You have Intel out with their numbers after the bell last night, down almost 9 percent right now. We have PCE, 2.9 percent. That's the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. You're talking about the lowest level since 2001, it's 2004-24. So we're making progress. Are we going to get back to 2 percent? Where's the Fed going to be when they meet in five days from right now? We go over some of the action. We kick things off. We get the S&Ps. You see the volatility around that 8.30 number for the PCE. We'll get to that in a moment. Pretty much in line on a monthly basis, 0.2 percent. Yearly, 2.9 percent. They were looking for about 3 percent. So only a tenth of a percent off on the yearly base. Everything else pretty much in expectations. Nonetheless, markets popped to about 49.28 on that news. We're back to 49.19, slightly in the red by three points, NASDAQ 100. As I mentioned, you got Intel down dramatically, weakening a bit in some of the tech, the growth, the chip sector. NASDAQ 100, off by 70 points, that's four tenths percent, 17,564. You can see we're about 100 points lower at one point and about four in the morning. Dow, off 49 points, trading off about a tenth of a percent, 38,161 in the Russell. How about it? Positive territory, right near 2,000, Russell, up by 10 points at 1997. How about Bitcoin? Maybe that was the final exhaustion of all that selling after the ETFs were approved. Bitcoin trades for 49,000, down to 38.5, just like that, with $3,000 off the low, made just a few days ago. We're trading up $1,400 bucks at 41,445 for Bitcoin, crude. A little bit of a leg up here yesterday. We accelerate to a high of 77.51. We've backed off a bit, but you see the acceleration, man. We're well above the highs that we had on December 26. That high was 76.18, and yeah, we'll see where crude reacts as we get a $77 price point. Crude, excuse me. Gold. Now, gold rolls here on futures. You get a pop from 2020 to 2040, which is not technically real. In real terms, you have the gold contract up above $5 or $6 right now at 2042. You jump to silver, silver right now, down about a penny. We jump to the all-important notes and bonds, a little bit of volatility on that number as you'd expect. At 8.30, you see the volatility, but we're right back to where we were at 8.00 AM. No real reaction in these markets on that number. It's a heck of a number, man, but it was already expected. This is where things are going to get very interesting, where that number was already expected. Do not expect the price of the 10-year to accelerate higher, causing the yields to drop dramatically because you have to remember the move that we've had since October. You have to remember that this market just went from 105.10 up to a high of 113.12. It went eight full points to the upside and all we've done is done a 236, a 0.236, 23.6% retracement of that move from October. There's a lot factored in here in terms of what's coming down the line, but boy, it's a good number and we finish it up with the, in terms of the PC, we're going to get to it in a moment. We jump to the dollar index first, you get the dollar. Down a bit, a little bit of weakness, $1.0318 right now. You talked about some volatility yesterday, right? You give it all back. This volatility in the dollar, man, from 103.15 up to 103.65. We get there overnight and you give it all back by 9am basically this morning. And let's check out the VIX. VIX, $13.54, a little bit of an elevated level right now, off of the lows of $1,241 on Wednesday. Okay. We jump over to the number. Fed's preferred core price gauge cools amid robust spending. Core PCE, so I guess that's the number I was looking at. That is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, PCE and core, right? Let's get down to the numbers. These are the ones that matter. Okay. So pretty interesting. PCE is at 2.6, core is at 2.9. They were looking for three. But as I mentioned in the program, look at these numbers. Okay. It's hot. That's the case, man, month over month, half a percent. PCE price index, month over month, right in line, okay? We talked to our man, Kevin Hinks, every Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday at 9.15. So we don't talk to him this morning, but he always makes the case on mornings like this. All we were looking for was the last month, right? You already kind of knew the last 11 months. All you do is you add the last month and that gives you the year. So yes, the year comes in soft, but keep in mind that on a monthly basis, you're pretty close. Okay. Core, 0.2. Regular headline, 0.2. You multiply that times 12, though, you're at 2.4 percent, man. That is pretty close to 2 percent. What was mentioned yesterday, how do you know you're going to stop at 2 percent, though? That's a conversation that I'm having in my head right now. How do you know that, let's say you're making the case in your own head, listen, things are going back to 2 percent right now. The next conversation you need to have with yourself is that if that's the case, do they stop at 2 percent? Does the lag catch up or does it continue to go past that point of 2 percent, which would then be a problem, of course. But nonetheless, man, strong numbers for this economy, consumer spending, powering things forward on the heels of the GDP number yesterday, we get a softer core PCE number on a yearly basis as it lines up pretty well, man. The only thing I can say about this market is that it is priced in for lining up pretty well. When you look at the acceleration we just had, of course, from 3,500, when? September of 2022, you're talking about what? 16 months ago, we were at 3,500 and we're pushing 5,000. Quite a 14 months in this market, and a lot of that predicated on the rapid turnaround and the beat that the market was expecting. If you think about where we were coming into the end of 2022, the beginning of last year, recession was all but a guarantee. I'm sure we've heard the headlines, but it's worth repeating, and let's just zoom in on that. Worth repeating, in terms of this optimism, even the acceleration from 4,100 and change in October, quite the acceleration, to put it lightly, we're trading at 49,18. You see the type of move that we're getting this morning. This is a magnificent number, and what just happened? You just gave up the entire pop you just got. Strong numbers, declining inflation, nonetheless, the market has a lot of that priced in right now. Where's the impetus to go higher is what I get to. I've made the case, man, that there is an impetus to the tune of about a couple hundred points, maybe in the S&Ps. What are we talking about? 200 points almost. You check out the A to B, C to D, folks. I'm taking about 3,600 in this market, going back to September. The low, the cycle low you could call it. Now, I'm not taking that cherry pick low of 3,500 there. It's an art, not a science. I think it lines up pretty well with these four weeks having bodies that line up right at 3,600. You take that to a nice 4,600, which is where this thing topped out in July of last year. You back it down to about 4,100 and change on the C point in October, 4,122. You add the 1,000 points to recalibrate my advance. Is that 1,000 point A to B? It's 1,000 point A to B, 3,600 to 4,600. It doesn't get simpler math than that. You add that, you're talking about 5,100 and change. And guess what? That's only about 4% above where we're at. So maybe you have some room, right? Maybe you got some room. But what happens at that point? And where my brain starts going is that, OK, so we have some room. We know that the cuts are probably coming down the line. It's going to be interesting to see what Chairman Powell has to say in five days from right now. Well, what happens when those cuts do come down the line, right? Where is the optimism then? Because they're all priced in. We know what's happening. We know markets at all time highs. We get to find out and we get the Chairman's words in five days from right now, Wednesday, 2 PM Eastern time. All right, folks, stay tuned. We've got a lot to talk about. Market's in red. We're taking a look at Intel next. We'll be right back. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. 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You got the S&Ps off by seven in the red right now at 49.16 and we jump over to Intel shares and boy, watch out man. This might be quite a tough morning for Intel folks. About $50 was where you're at yesterday, 50.30 was the high end today. You close out at 49.55, we're down about 10% on this equity right now trading at 44.71. You make a low of 43.10 and boy, I feel like things might even be more dire than that when you actually look at the harsh numbers that we're talking about here in terms of the miss. You talk about revenue, okay? Revenue, they come in at in the first quarter, this is guidance which is more important than what they did in the fourth quarter, right? 12.2 to 13.2 billion. What we're analysts looking for, the average analyst estimate was 14.25. Well, you'd hope that they're under promising and gonna over deliver, right? But if they're in a really bad spot, it's very hard to under promise and over deliver when your numbers are that bad. 12.2 to 13.2, maybe they see themselves coming right in the middle of that at 12.7, that's $1.5 billion they just missed on on the average analyst estimate of 14.25 which is a 10% miss on revenue. And that's 90 days from right now. That's not talking about the fiscal year forecast, that's not talking about two years out. Analysts thought in the 90 days that they're in right now, this quarter, right? No, not the case. Profit, 13 cents a share. What was the market looking for? 34 cents a share. They got some big time problems, man. And they're light on details which gets into some real problems. You saw some of that with Tesla playing out, right? The light on details. Yeah, the CEO acknowledging in the first quarter that the on the call that the first quarter was not going as well as he hoped but he expected the rest of 2024 to improve quarter by quarter. Their efforts to return to the cutting edge of manufacturing are still on track, he said. That's crucial to improving its products and staying competitive. He asserted that the chip makers no longer losing sales to competitors in PCs and data centers. It's light on details and they are missing dramatically and they're getting lapped by NVIDIA and AMD folks and the chart has been saying it for a while. They comment here, one of the most ambitious pieces of that plan to push into manufacturing chips for others. A field known as the Foundry Industry. Intel committed to spending heavily on a network of plants around the world to further that effort but the company has not yet gone public with the names of large customers participating in the project. It feels like they're reaching a bit. And this is not an industry that you can just come in, spend money and get it done. If that was the case folks, remember, if you could just come in, spend money and compete with manufacturing chips and compete with the likes of NVIDIA and AMD then the Chinese government will be doing that today. And they probably are attempting to but it's not easy to do. Right? The fundamental aspects of the technology, just the wherewithal, the human capital, right? The minds, the technology, everything that goes into that. It seems like they're saying that they can just spend the money and compete and they don't have the details and they're getting lapped by NVIDIA and AMD and they're missing on revenue to the tune of 10%. And yeah, he said that Intel will make a headway in the market for so-called AI accelerators, NVIDIA-style chips that help speed the development of AI models, the growth of the AI industry will also increase demand for Intel's regular data center processors, but Intel's efforts to upgrade its facilities will weigh on profitability. I don't know how they get it done right now, man. Their gross margin will be 44.5% in the first quarter. That is quite a gross margin, but they only made what, 10, 12 pennies, something like that. That compares with an estimate of 45.5. They still miss by a full percentage point, right? Yeah, and they were pushing 60% prior to the onset of the problems they're dealing with right now. In the fourth quarter, earnings were 54 cents a share on sales of 515.4, right? This is a big problem, man, because what did they do? They beat this quarter, 15.4 versus 15.2, and they earned 54 cents versus 44. But what did we just say? How do you go from that, taking in 15.4 billion, and then right around the corner, you tell everybody that, guess what? This next 90 days, though, are gonna be 12.2 to 13.2, and we're only gonna make 13 pennies a share versus the 34 cents. This is not, their profit is not just a result of them spending money to compete on these bigger projects that they're trying to turn things around. Their profit is a result of lack of demand, lack of revenue, and I'm actually surprised it's only down that much when it's that big of a miss, so I would be skeptical on the open there for Intel shares. You're down about five bucks, you're down 10%. It's a tough one. You take a look at the longer-term chart, though. This thing just accelerated from $25, man. You're just back to where you were at the beginning of the year, right? I mean, you tell somebody in October when Intel's trading at $32, right? You tell them right after that last earnings event, which was the impetus to trade hire for the last 90 days with the market, of course, okay? But let's put it on a daily. Look at that, man. They come right off their last earnings, okay? So you tell somebody on October 30th when Intel's trading at 36 bucks, you tell them when? November 14th, when Intel's at trading at $38, you tell them what they're gonna announce on their next earnings event on January 26th, and you say, where would you like the stock price after Intel announces their next earnings event when it's trading at $38 today? And I tell you what they're about to tell the public on the afternoon of January 25th. I say, don't worry, we're gonna trade up from 38 up to 45. Even after that, you're gonna gain almost 20% of the equity. Be careful, it's been quite a run. And those are some very bad numbers in an industry that should be doing pretty well right now, right? And they have been doing pretty well, but to face that type of a miss, the market is probably gonna penalize them today. Light on details, man, light on profits, light on revenue, be careful. All right, we talked about some of those A to B CDDs, right? Let's jump around a little bit. You jump over to the NASDAQ 100. You're talking about maybe 19,400. We just made it to 17,800 this week. You are a stone's throw away from all these A to B CDDs completing folks, all right? Your A point, a little bit back to the beginning of the run from January of 2023. Your B point, 16,000. You got a nice round, almost 5,000 A to B leg. You're back to a low of about 14,100. It brings you up to about 19,400 on that A to B. Now, if all the indices are doing it, then you gotta have the equities that matter doing it, right? And sure enough, you do, man. You jump over to Microsoft shares. I almost identical in terms of the price, the structure, and how far it's gotta go to complete it. Your A to B, 225. Up to almost three, what, 65. You're back to your C point at a price point of 309. That pushes you to 457. You're only talking about 50 bucks from where you are. What's that, 12, 13% to complete that for Microsoft shares? No matter, there's a couple that are their own animal here. Not Google. And look at how they pull that back in. Right to the 3A2, and you bounce. Google's only 17 bucks away from that price point. Similar area, 11, 12% pop. You get all these equities that are controlling the market. The Magnificent Seven, you get those to pop. Watch out, now Meta is its own animal, man. There was never a pullback. This thing just keeps trading higher. 396.15, all-time highs made this week from Meta shares. Apple is a different story too, to a certain degree. Has not broken that A to B, right? You're still pushing those all-time highs. Apple gets up to a high of 198.23 back last July. Just eclipses that at the end of the year, and we're at 194.17 right now. And yeah, they're already writing articles, man. Be careful for Tesla. It was a member of the Magnificent Seven, and it's not acting like it anymore, man. Down to 185 right now, 185 for Tesla shares. Stay tuned, folks. We're coming back for the open. Don't go away. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. 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Don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results. Market Insights comes with a 30-day money-back guarantee for all new subscribers, so you have nothing to risk. Don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game. Head over to TFNN.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter, Market Insights firsthand. TFNN, educating investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. Good morning, everybody. Welcome back, and we've got markets open. You're looking at S&P, negative by five. You get the NASDAQ 100, negative by 84. Russell starts things off in positive territory. We jump around to yields. You jump to the 10-year, pretty steady, right? We're getting a little bit of a pullback right now on that news in terms of we get some inflation data. We're back to the lows, 111.06. You got yields at about 4.14%. That's a five-minute chart. We're chopping around a bit, but you're only talking about 10 to 12 ticks right now. You put things on a daily basis, right? We're just chopping around at this area right now. 111.06, pretty encouraging inflation data, and the market just takes it in stride, as in maybe that's what we're expecting, at least for right now. As I mentioned, Fed Day and Five Days from right now next Wednesday, seems like the market gonna be waiting dearly to see what the chairman has to say. All right, let's see what we got happening on the open with some of the equities. Let's jump to Intel shares. I think it's gonna trade lower on the open. We got personal biases. Let's find out. A little bit lower, right? 44.20 right now. Down 10.7%. You got a little bit of a pop. Be careful on this one, man. As I mentioned, huge miss on revenue. Miss on earnings and light on details of the stories that they're telling. That's a dicey one, folks. Let's jump over to the other equity that's been in a similar story, right? Miss on earnings, light on details. Tesla gets you a slight bid off of where they were yesterday, you're back above 185 right now to one, well, I'll call 185 for Tesla shares. All right, what else we got going on? American Express out with their numbers this morning. Strong numbers, up by 3.5%. We catch a bid on the open for AXP. You get the dial going to positive territory up by 17 as we talk S&Ps just down by two right now. And yeah, take a look at these longer term charts, man. American Express. A lot more choppy action than Visa. We're gonna jump to Visa next, right? But you're coming up to all-time highs. 199.55 was the all-time highs made about two years ago. We're coming up to that level, 195.67 for the price of American Express. As they're trying to hire on their numbers, we'll jump to those numbers in a moment. And how about Visa, right? Very little volatility on that equity, man. Credit card companies, good business to be in. Visa shares down about 0.8% today, but boy, it has been quite a run on a longer term basis. And then you just back it up on a three-year. Whoops. Three-year weekly. Yeah, breaking above all those price points for Visa up to 272 just this week, all-time highs, and you jump to American Express barely at those levels as they catch a continued bid. S&P is rolling over to positive territory, man. 49.23 with American Express adding to those up by about 4% right now. All right, let's jump to J.P. Morgan. So story out there. Mr. Diamond shuffling the top brass a bit as they get ready for a possible successor plan. J.P. Morgan basically flat today down about a 10th or percent 172.73. And we jump over to that headline. Shuffle's top managers as Diamond prepares successors. So it's interesting here, he is five, two and a half years into a five-year extension. And maybe that's the deal, maybe it's the end of that. Maybe we got two and a half years of Jamie and Diamond left, man, it's possible. He's been there forever. He might wanna do something else at some point. And there it says halfway through Diamond's five-year retention package, which is what they call it. He places, and we're gonna have to get familiar with these names, man. Jen, Piepzak, Pipzak, Troy Warbaugh, a top and expanded commercial investment bank, and then Marianne Lake, who's co-led the Consumer and Community Bank alongside Piepzak will get sole control of that segment. And it looks like those are the three. Yeah. Insiders have been predicting it would need to rotate bosses to give them new challenges in the search for Diamond's eventual successor. And there's the rotation, man. 3.9 trillion dollar balance sheet. It's an important one in terms of who runs that, man. Diamond, he's 67, so he'll be almost 70 at the end of that five-year deal. And yeah, the market takes in stride, but interesting to see how that will go. Succession. You guys watch Succession, girls watch Succession on HBO. You know, I still have a few episodes to finish that up, man. Great program if you haven't watched it on Max. All right, what else we got pulled up here? Yeah, we'll talk a little bit of CRM, Salesforce. They're laying off 700 workers. About 1% of the company's workforce, they reduced things by 10% last year, so quite a different in terms of the trim. 1% of the 70,000 person company that makes cloud-based computer, excuse me, cloud-based customer relation management software, CRM. Yeah, and a year ago it cut 8,000 employees, so this time it's only 700, as things look a little bit bigger. They still have 1,000 jobs open across the company, so the person familiar with the plans implying that the move could be more of a routine adjusting of the company's workforce rather than a significant shift in the strategy. I mean, I would probably say so, right? They laid off 8,000 people last year. That's definitely a layoff, right? It's not quite a restructuring, but you're laying off 700 workers, you have 1,000 workers that you're trying to hire in different areas, not exactly the same deal there. CRM, you take a look at the longer-term chart on this equity, let's back it up even more. Talk about volatility, man. Some of these equities, man. When you made it back to the COVID lows, it made no sense, and the market realized that and accelerated, look at this, man. CRM from 128 to 280, you're within about 10% of the all-time highs of 311 on this equity right now. You're up by about a 10th of a percent. Let's check in on some of those fang stocks. Magnificent seven, back to a 15-minute chart. Apple shares, basically flat today. Got the NASDAQ 100 slight in the red. Let's check in on Intel. Down about 11.4%, so we do drop a little bit on the open there. We're pushing almost near the pre-market session lows, 43.89 for Intel shares. We check in on AXP, they're continuing a little higher, up by almost 5% right now on their numbers. We check back to the Magnificent seven, Microsoft, down a quarter percent right now. Google shares, basically flat, 153.53. We touched on Meta, down about a 10th of a percent right now, and how about Tesla? Up by 1.3%, but boy, just kind of chopping around at 185. We take a look at Boeing. Boeing gets a lift by about 2%, up by $4.20. Tough day for Boeing yesterday, down to 198.32. And yeah, maybe 200 is gonna be an area that you get a little bit of support, right? You touched that last week, you touched that this week. Let's put it back on a daily for a moment. 200, we touched that, yeah, January 16th. You bounce a bit, you get back down there to 198 yesterday, you bounce as well. But you break below that 200 area. 175 is totally in game, man. And you see, you know, you see how, let's just back it up on the weekly again. This is a critical area, man, 200 bucks. Because as a technician, what's below this area, 180. Right away, and boy, you get below there, 120 is in the cards. So be careful. And maybe that bounce starts from a long time ago. You get Boeing, up by $4, a critical area for Boeing. Yeah, it kind of piled on this week, right? We saw United out there talking about that they might be done in terms of the straw that broke the camel's back. I think you got Alaska out there, somebody was out there. I mean, the airlines finally paying notice in terms of maybe they need to rethink that as it's really having a material impact when there aren't many options. There's two companies that make airplanes, folks. Boeing and Airbus. You want an airplane? Get in line, you gotta wait years for it. But it's remarkable that it's actually getting to the point that they can't rely on that company because of delays continuing to be a problem, let alone the safety hazard that causes those delays on a humanitarian perspective, for sure. And with that, we get the Dow climb in 38,232 right now. We're positive by 20 points. S&P's barely in the red right now. We jump to yields. You jump over to the 10-year. Yeah, we drop a bit. We're just about 4.14% right now. Let's check in on the dollar index. You jump around dollars sitting at 103.27. We get the volatility index at 13.55. Stay tuned, folks. We still got a lot to talk about. We'll talk a little bit of China when we get back. Don't go away. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger Zen, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. 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Folks markets slightly in the red with the S&P's negative by one, growth stocks, NASDAQ 100, negative by 77, you get the Dow popping up by 50 and the Russell right now up by 17. We take a look at the Hang Sang. Here's your Hang Sang index, folks. Right now you're down about 1.6% on the session. This is a weekly chart. You see a green bar here. We're getting a bounce off the bottom. Didn't quite hit the lows of 14,597, which we hit back in October of 2022. But from about a year ago, right? Basically, a year ago on the dot, man, you had a price point of 22,700. You're trading at 16,000 right now. That's 6,700 bucks that you're off. That's about a 30% hit. And that's after this pop. The point being, when you take a look at this chart, folks, on a weekly basis, do you see a lot of strength? I don't see a lot of strength, okay? You take a look at it on a 15 minute basis. You say, boy, that's quite a pop off the lows. Yes, that is quite a pop off the lows. You put it on a daily. You have a couple green bars, but you're talking about a series of lower lows and lower highs. The channel almost draws itself on this chart to the downside, okay? And you jump over to the headlines. Of course, we have the headline out there, the stimulus in terms of the government supporting buying to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars for their stock market. We talked about earlier that when they did this in 2015, earlier in the week, it was a short-lived rally, folks, followed by a further deceleration of prices because it didn't fix the underlying problems. If you're a trader and you're in China and you understand the fundamentals of what's going on and the government provides just the money to buy the equities and doesn't fix the underlying problem, how long is that gonna play out? Now, they're trying to do other things, right? I'm sure there's very intelligent people in charge of what they're doing, G included over there. So they understand that's what happened last time. So they're trying to do more, but I would be careful on that chart, okay? Because pay attention to the chart, folks. The charts aren't gonna lie. Reserve requirement ratio, okay? You got China signaling more targeted stimulus. They cut the reserve requirement ratio. That's probably gonna become less frequent going forward, but they e-marked plans to target specific areas of the economy. They made an unusual reserve requirement ratio announcement earlier this week. That was on the heels of that trading deal that they talked about. Yeah, and you see the relending programs have soared since the pandemic, okay? They increased funding via such tools as 7% last quarter from the previous period, 7.5 trillion won. That's a trillion dollars overall, okay? But I like to pull up this chart because if you look at it on a longer-term basis, man, be careful. Now, the news was out there for Alibaba earlier this week, and maybe you gotta pick certain equities versus just the hang-sang right now. That's not screaming to buy either, man, but anytime you got the CEOs, Jack Ma, and one other gentleman, I think, right, putting about $200 million into this equity, be careful, okay? Because this is high-risk capital. I don't know where you put your stop. If you're investing in this, you better make sure that you can take a 25 or a 50% cut or something like that because you're dealing with unknown variables that can always come up when you're investing in Chinese equities, especially with what's going on right now. But remember, they have to fix the underlying economy and they have problems and they can't just support it through buying, et cetera, okay? Now, you jump from there and you jump to here and they do have some problems and it shows up with our lead over China in the race for the world's biggest economy. The US extended it. We had quite a year last year, man, we're beating everybody, we're lapping them all. US ends 2023 with a bang while China struggles with the bust, okay? And it's a striking turn of fortunes and you check out where we're going here. US better really keep their eyes on India, man. India is coming, all right? China declining population, as you go forward, all that stuff, you may have seen a peak there, it's possible. This is China's economy, here, let's zoom in on this. This is the China GDP as a share of the US at the US dollar market exchange rates, all right? So it's comparing China's GDP to the US GDP and it hit 75% at the end of 2021. And just like that, it's back to 65%. 10% hit mammoth numbers when you put it in that context, right? So they go from being three quarters of our economy to being two thirds of our economy, and even less than that. And it looks like that is going to continue to be a little bit of a problem here. And as they talk about, right? Chinese equities mired in a $6 trillion plus bear market route and they got some issues, man. So be careful, property a big problem over there. It'd be interesting to see if our commercial property has any problems over here. It'd be interesting to see how fast the Fed might be able to cut to ease some of those concerns in the commercial property sector. Imagine you're somebody owning one of those commercial property buildings. And it's an interest only loan most of the time, okay? It's not like mortgages where you're paying off equity, okay? It's an interest only jumbo loan that comes due. You got to either pay off the principal or refinance it. Sometimes you have an extension in there, maybe a one year or two year extension is built in. Those extensions come up, you provide that extension, gives you a year or two. Imagine where they are on the Fed and Chairman Powell knows this, okay? So remember that as the impetus comes. Can't wait to see what he has to say in five days from right now. There is gonna be a lot of pressure on that March meeting after a 2.9% number on the core PCE that we just got. Remember, the Fed is at a rate of five and a quarter, five and a half. Well, if we're seeing numbers of 3%, does the Fed really have to be so restrictive where there are 2.5 percentage points above the R star? We're all learning all of these amazing terms or even getting engrossed in what they mean even if you've heard them before. What's the natural rate of growth right now that the Fed should be at? It's probably not five and a quarter to five and a half percent with the numbers that we're seeing, okay? They can make a very real case that they can cut by a quarter and still be very restrictive. And that's the case they're gonna make, okay? We'll see if they start making that case five days from right now, but boy, we are close. That is for sure. The S&P's just off the highs, off about five points at 49, 17. LVMH, they're crushing it. There's quite a weekly and all that week. Let's put it on a daily because it's all from today, man. Well, yesterday too, I guess, 838, 34. As LVMH, they're up by 6.8% on their numbers, man. Yeah, we jump over to that. Not bad, $93.34 billion with their sales. They exceeded the consensus forecast, 13% organic revenue growth, organic revenue up 10% just in the quarter, 14% annual growth in critical fashion and leather goods sector, 11% growth in perfumes and cosmetics, wines and spirits, 4% decline. What's going on with those wines and spirits? What's happening, man? Big numbers over there to put it lightly and they plow higher. Still well off where this equity was back in July last year, hitting $1,000 twice but nonetheless, higher prices for them today. All right, we check back on some of the equities with action this morning. Let's see how Tesla's doing. Tesla down about, excuse me, down from the highs but up 1.2% right now. We jumped to Intel, where are we at? Yeah, down about 12%, down almost $6. We have traded lower on the open. The low there, 43.10, gonna be real hard to find a bid for Intel shares considering where we've been, where we've come from. I pulled it up earlier in the program but if you weren't watching folks, you know, boy, we just ran from $32 up to 50. Just like that, we're back to 43 and let's see where we're talking about for Fibonacci levels on possible pullback on this equity. Yeah, you're right back to the 382. Just like that, man. Maybe we come back and fill that gap that we got from that last earnings. Don't comment it out because this was as bad as it can almost get in my opinion on those earnings, man. All right, folks, we got one more segment. We got the Dow up by 36 points. We got the S&Ps down by three. We jump over to American Express. Yeah, different story for them. Clown higher, man. Look at that, AXP up by 7.7% to 20253 all-time highs. Stay tuned, folks. One more segment. Don't go away. We'll be right back. The gold report. As a precious metal, gold is still king. It continues to hold the most effective safe haven and hedging properties across the global major trading hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market and the Shanghai Gold Exchange. The gold report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the Dollar, Bonds, the South African Rand, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy-sell recommendations. The gold report. New subscribers get a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's gold report newsletter now at TFNN.com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know, and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. The reality is that navigating financial markets can be risky. Markets can be chaotic and difficult to understand. Having the latest market advice can help you turn this chaos into a key for creating winning trades. At TFNN, we understand that it can be hard to find reliable market news. That's why each of our market experts offers their very own market newsletter. A must-have tool for every trader out there striving to find an edge in today's markets, TFNN newsletters cover every aspect of the markets so you can analyze the market before you trade. Try any of our great newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money-back guarantee. Just visit the Newsletters tab on the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. Back, folks, we've got the S&Ps down by six right now, trading at 49.16, a little bit of chop on the open. Right when we get to 9.30, you push to 49.25, we're back to that 49.15 area. You see kind of that trading range that's building right now. We jump back to Tesla shares. Gotta keep your eye on Tesla, man. 185 is the price point. You put a look at this thing on the three-year weekly, up to 414, the end of 2021. We pushed above 350 a couple of times in their beginning of 2022. I think Elon started selling his shares about April of 2022 as his endeavor for Twitter, now known as X, took hold. He didn't become the richest man in the world by never selling, I guess, folks. Quite a trade he's got going on. Now, you check it out from the journal this morning, okay? One stock in the name Magnificent 7 isn't so magnificent. Quite the astounding headline, right? No, at least it speaks for itself. But check out the chart when you look at it, man, okay? Do you remember when Elon was out there in the early days of the hiking of the Fed, right? It was probably this first acceleration, maybe in August or something. And he was blaming it all on interest rates, right? And the Fed, et cetera, et cetera. Look at this chart versus the S&P 500, man, and look at the recent drop-off. This is going to complicate the pay package story dramatically. And I don't know which way that goes. I asked Kevin Hinks about it earlier in the week. He made some great points, man, okay? In terms of, you gotta give him what he wants to be motivated if you're gonna run that company and you believe in what he does and you're a shareholder. But it's gonna be so complicated when you look at this chart, okay? Are you predicating it off these prices? Are you predicating it off of these prices? You were at 414 because some of his payouts were predicated off these prices and then it pulls back and gets another pay package. How's it go? But it's a tough go-around, man, on Tesla shares. So be careful of that one for sure. And we check it on Intel as Intel just continues to slide. Yeah, we're pushing basically session lows of 43-46. Look at that spike. We got all the way up to 45-41. You've lost $2 from that spike on the open. Be careful on Intel. That was a tough earnings go-around to put it lightly. All right, folks, stay tuned. You got your man, Basil Chapman. He's been in the Tiger's Dance since early this morning. He's ready for the Tiger Technicians Hour coming up next. Stay tuned, folks. Basil's coming up. Have a great Friday. Have a safe weekend, folks. No drunk driving. Use an Uber out there. It's too easy. Don't risk anything. It's too easy, folks. Life's too beautiful. We'll see you back here Monday morning and stay tuned for Basil. Have a great one, folks.