 Good evening and welcome to a Saturday night edition of Tiskey Sour. We weren't sure whether we were going to hold on until Monday to do this show, but there is just so much going on. I mean, we couldn't possibly wait. Not only is there a pro-independence majority in Scotland, not only have Labour improved their position in Wales, but, and this is really breaking, this is just before we went live, Angela Rainer has been sacked as chair of the Labour Party. Of all people, Keir Starmer has decided it seems to go to war with his deputy, which to me seems completely self-destructive. I'm wondering if more elements of this story are going to break while we are live. If it does, the man who is going to inform you about that breaking news is going to be Aaron Bustani. Aaron, how are you doing? I'm doing great, Michael. I'm doing fantastic. Thank you so much for having me back on a second consecutive night. We had a great show. So many people tonight to meet better, bigger and Angela Rainer. Wow, we'll talk about that in a minute. Our big two focuses on the show to start with are going to be the results in Wales and then Scotland. We've got two great analysts on to talk about that. Before we do that, of course, if you're new to the show, do hit the subscribe button, keep your comments coming on the hashtag TiskeySour, we're also going to give you an update on English councils. This is what we talked about for a long time yesterday. We're just going to give you a brief update today about English councils. We'll talk a bit about the updated mayors towards the end of the show. So as it currently stands, we're going to get up for you the state of play. So you can see they're still not looking very good for Labour. So in total, the Conservatives have made 284 gains. Labour have made 226 losses. The Lib Dems are down 28. The Greens are up 62. So it's a very good night or good day, good weekend. For them, when it comes to councillors, you keep down four, which is to zero. And when it comes to councils which have been gained and lost, the Conservatives have won 11 councils. And Labour have lost six. Let's go straight on to Wales though. As I say, we're going to talk at the end of the show. Angela Rainer. Andy Burnham's renewed majority and how he responded to Keir Starmer in his victory speech. And also the London majority. Hopefully we'll have a bit more news for you later on. But for now, Labour might have had some miserable results in England. But in Wales, Mark Drakeford's party stands victorious. Welsh Labour have won 30 out of 60 seats in the centre. Just one short of a majority and matching their best ever result in the Welsh Parliament. Now the final distribution of seats are as follows. So Labour are on 30 seats. Labour have 30 seats, which is up one from the last election. The Conservatives are on 16, which is up five. Plaid Cymru are on 13, which is up one. Although it sounds like they're pretty disappointed with the result. And then you're saying, how are these all in positives? That's because UKIP have collapsed. They did have seven seats in the last Parliament and they have all been redistributed. Looking at that, you might initially think, well, mainly redistributed to the Conservatives. Why is everyone saying this is a success for Labour? Well, for Labour to have increased their vote share and increased the number of seats they have after so long in government is still a pretty impressive feat. A lot of that success is being put down to the personality and the leadership of Mark Drakeford. He spoke to the BBC earlier about why he thinks Labour's good fortune is down to their record in government. I thought throughout that our biggest advantage is the fact that we have been in government here in Wales. Demonstrating what you can do for progressive causes when you have the power and the authority to do that. Whereas our colleagues in England, often being in opposition, are able to put forward ideas, but they don't have that advantage of being able to point to the record of actual achievement that we can in Wales. So when we say in our manifesto that we will do other things for people in Wales in the future, people have the confidence of knowing that we've got a record of delivery here in Wales. So a record of delivery, and especially during the coronavirus pandemic. Now, to discuss the successes of Welsh Labour, I'm joined by Harriet Profaro Saltani, who's joined us very recently on this show. So a privilege to have you back on today. Thank you. I want to start with a big picture. I mean, the overwhelming narrative here is that Labour were re-elected because of their performance in government. People were satisfied with how they have governed the nation for the past five years. Is that the case? Is that why they were re-elected? And what are the successes, the achievements that people are most focusing on? It's an interesting point, the way that Drayford has framed this in terms of the last five years, where to be honest, I would say more in the last year where people have understood the value of devolution, what devolution is, who Mark Drayford is, and how he's acted during this crisis. There's been a lot of points during the coronavirus crisis where Wales has differed from the route to England. And on those occasions, I think it politicised people. It gave people an understanding that in Wales, we could do things differently. Some of the key issues, some of the best vaccination rates in the world. At one point, we were second in the world. I've had my vaccine. I'm 27. How on earth did that happen? Maybe it was a failure. But I also think that the ability for this crisis to re-establish Welsh identity almost, he was doing press conferences every day in the Welsh parliament with big Welsh flags behind him. And it did become an identitarian thing as well for a lot of people. So I think the coronavirus is the key measure of this to be very frank. The things that he's done in government before coronavirus, I would be difficult to argue that the other main factor has gone into this election. So do you think without the pandemic it could have been a completely different story that we were telling about Wales and telling about Mark Drakeford? Yeah, I do definitely think that. Yeah. Let's talk about independence and the question about independence. Obviously this is going to be, this is a more urgent issue when it comes to Scotland, which we're going to talk about in a moment, but it's ever present in Wales as well. So as we have described, it's a disappointing night, even though they gained a seat they were expecting and hoping to gain much more. Mark Drakeford, who was obviously victorious, re-elected as First Minister. He today reasserted his opposition to Welsh independence. Let's take a look. Well, I think the pandemic has had a polarising effect to an extent on people's opinions. But when it came to the election, I think you could see clearly that the great bulk of opinion here in Wales remains attached to powerful devolution, where decisions that only affect people in Wales are only made by people in Wales, but where we continue to be part of a successful United Kingdom. And that's what the Labour Party offered in this election. Both our commitment to devolution, but also our belief that the United Kingdom is better off for having Wales in it and that Wales is better off for being part of a successful United Kingdom. So, Mark Drakeford there saying, not only was this a mandate for our record in government, this is a mandate for our position on the constitutional status of Wales, which is that it should have strong rights in terms of devolution, but it shouldn't be independent. It should remain a part of a United Kingdom. Harriet, do you see these election results as, I suppose, a confirmation of Labour's position or confirmation that Wales is not particularly interested at this point in time in the same way as Scotland? No, I think this over simplifies the picture because there are many independent supporters within the Labour Party, so me, for example, who voted Labour an ardent supporter of independence, so we can't map on in the same way that we can in Scotland the electoral vote to the sentiment around independence. And as we've seen over the last year, Yes, Cymru, for example, the biggest independence body in Wales at the beginning of January, there were 18,000 members. Now, January last year, this year in January, they had 18,000. And the spikes in membership for Yes, Cymru and support in the independence movement were around key issues during the pandemic, for example, Dominic Cummings, the furlough being denied, etc. So I don't think it's 100% true for Mark Drakeford to say that this election has put the independence debate to bed because, as I said, 51% as well. This is a key statistic. In a U Gov poll last year, 51% of Labour voters in Wales support independence, right? That's a massive statistic. So, yeah, it doesn't map on like it would with the SMP in Scotland. So this wasn't a referendum on independence in your mind in the same way that the Scottish parliamentary elections, I suppose, they were a cipher for people's opinions on independence. I want to know your thoughts on I mean, a big question people are asking today is how come Welsh Labour is more successful than English Labour or UK-wide Labour? Now, I suppose one thing people put forward is Mark Drakeford was a bit of a Corbynite. He's a proud socialist. He has a very different attitude to politics and Keir Starmer. At the same time, I suppose what Starmer writes would most likely say is that this isn't really about ideology. This is the fact that the coronavirus pandemic has flooded incumbents. So, Nicola Sturgeon in Scotland, Boris Johnson in England and Mark Drakeford in Wales, they've all increased their popularity during this period of time when people have really seen the necessity of government and they're all in varying ways benefiting from a vaccine bounce as well. Which one of those do you think it is? I mean, if it is the latter, is there anything that Keir Starmer can learn from Mark Drakeford in the moment? Yeah. So, I think this kind of ties into something that was mentioned earlier about the realms of possibility that Drakeford said himself, actually, is that I think for English voters not having had a Labour Government for so long, the realms of possibility for the average voter of having a Labour Government that could be progressive are a lot different to us in Wales. We've had a Labour Government for 20 years. Wales has voted Labour since 1918. So, I think it's a good socialist list and say to you it's because we're good socialist people, but I don't think that's the full answer. I would say that Drakeford has definitely benefited from this coronavirus bounce, but also there is that history here. So, for example, when people talk about the red wall, it really winds me up that we only talk about the north of England. Because if you look at South Wales, there is a solid red block that has stayed red ever since. We had Keir Hardy down in the place of the Labour Party, so I think there's a combination of the two, but if Keir is to learn anything from Mark Drakeford, then I think the learning there is about the realities of being in Government and showing how a Labour Party can change people's lives. The fact that Mark Drakeford is a socialist is obviously a huge benefit for us on the left to be able to talk to members of public about the Labour Party, but I don't know whether that is the key focus, to be honest. Let's look finally about Brexit. There was a very interesting stat tweeted out by Chris Curtis from Opinium Today. He was showing a big difference between UK Labour and Welsh Labour as their ability to appeal to leave voters. So in the Welsh Parliamentary elections, 50% of Remainers voted for Labour, whereas UK-wide 52% of Remainers voted for Labour. In the Welsh Parliamentary elections, 28% of Leavers voted for Labour, whereas in the UK-wide elections only 19% of Leavers voted for Labour. And so obviously, one key reality which can explain why Mark Drakeford was more successful than Keir Starmer is Welsh Labour is able to appeal to more Leavers. My question for you I suppose is do you think this is because people don't associate the devolved government with the Brexit question? Because obviously, whether or not there would be a second referendum was something that was always going to be decided in Westminster. So you might have people who voted in 2019 for the Conservative Party because they're like we don't want a second referendum, but felt safe voting for Labour now because they had no control over it. Or is it that Mark Drakeford as an individual and Welsh Labour as an organisation have sort of made more of an effort to be not so closely aligned with the Remain cause? Yeah, almost certainly and yeah, the context of it being like a Westminster Parliament making those decisions rather than a Welsh Parliament definitely plays. But also, key factor here is lots of the opposition parties or one key opposition party I'll just name them, abolish, we're gnats. Like flat out gnats. So like the Leave vote like wasn't going to go, we thought oh my gosh, abolish is going to do really well they've been completely wiped out because they are just wild, right? Before, there's a good example in Merthyr Tydfil actually, I wasn't going to come on this show and not talk about Merthyr Tydfil because like whenever someone talks about Merthyr I just get so happy inside, but anyway what we can see from Merthyr is there was a really heavy UKIP vote in the last centre of the election like UKIP made it into the Parliament it was a dagger to my heart, whatever but in Merthyr Tydfil for example that vote jumped back into Labour mainly, right? So 14% went back into Labour and into the Tories, right? So there's a real lack of like oppositional parties that would represent the Brexit vote that people would actually think were seen enough to vote for so most of our votes come back to the Labour Party and I think that kind of ties into that like why not the Tories? Because obviously in England it went straight to the Tories anyone who was a historic Labour voter who voted Brexit, they said well the obvious party to vote for is the Conservatives but it doesn't seem like that's happened to the same extent in Wales. Yeah, I think there's much less of an extent that Labour has got itself involved in the referendum discussion so definitely that and I think there is still that like real cultural so for example in the Valleys where we had some of the highest leave votes real cultural resistance to vote in Tory like people would probably rather vote UKIP than Tory which says a lot but like whatever, we won't go there. Thank you so much for all of that insight, I suppose actually very finely Labour don't quite have a majority did they? They've got 30 out of 60. Yeah, last time they governed with the Lib Dem so there was one Lib Dem, Kirsty Williams she's gone now, there's another Lib Dem that's come in Jane Dodds so potentially there could be a discussion with Jane Dodds about working together. I don't know if that's going to happen but that looks like the most likely option. Well we will look out to see what Mark Drakeford does next. Nice to have some not miserable news and always lovely to have you on the show Harriet. Thanks Michael. Aaron, what do you make of the argument that is being made and you know there's actually I don't think it's an unreasonable argument to say that the real story of this election isn't so much that Welsh Labour are essentially good and UK Labour are essentially bad but just that all of the governments have benefited from incumbent effects during the pandemic and therefore Welsh Labour are doing better electorally than UK Labour than Keir Starmer's Labour. Seems to be the case although we've obviously got a small sample we've only got Scotland, England and Wales so a sample of three trying to make generalisable statements I think it's better to say that Welsh Labour have had a better crisis than a better coronavirus crisis for once for better word than Keir Starmer clearly but I don't see why it's implausible or one could see a speculative alternative world that has managed the last 12 months far better than he has I don't think that was inevitable the United States, Joe Biden made political hay of Donald Trump mismanaging the coronavirus crisis so I don't think that's necessarily true what we're seeing in English local elections we'll talk about that more later is actually people who are articulating a politics which identifies emotionally with a place whether it's Andy Burnham bits of the North East actually a whole group of politicians will talk about Greens, Labour in parts of the South they're doing really really well and I think people have had enough of local politics or nationalist politics outside of England, so Wales and Scotland people have had enough of that being a springboard to a Westminster career and I think they're rewarding people who are viewed as champions for local causes and advancing their interests and I think Mark Drakeford is definitely benefiting from that it's inevitable, I think he's had a good crisis because he's had a good crisis he responded well politically that didn't happen from Keir Starmer and then finally the point that was made from Harriet about well actually the right made this thing a de facto referendum on whether the Welsh Parliament should exist at all I think they wanted to polarise the debate but actually they polarised it massively to the advantage of Welsh Labour serious political parties talking about governance overseeing a world class response to the coronavirus and you've got these kind of maniacs saying we want to scrap this whole body which actually has performed really well by international standards in terms of responding to Covid so I partly agree with what you just said and I partly disagree I suspect that Keir Starmer could have outperformed Welsh Labour of course that's just my opinion we don't know that I think it's a good point that we have a sample of free which is quite difficult to come to any strong inferences from let's move straight to Scotland this is where the big constitutional showdown is going to happen over the next five years it could absolutely shape British politics for the coming five years quite possibly will be the biggest issue of politics and that's because there is a pro-independence majority in Hollywood now this was not a surprise to anyone what was more in question was whether or not the SNP would get an absolute majority they haven't got that it could be just as impactful the fact that they have a majority the SNP with the Greens for independence let's look at the results as they currently stand we don't have the final results we have the final results for the constituency vote so in Scotland as in Wales you get two votes one is for a constituency representative and one is for a list for the constituencies the SNP got 47.7% of the vote that's up 1.2% the Conservatives got 21.9% which is down 0.1% Labour got 21.6% which is down 1% and the Lib Dems got 6.9% which is down 0.9% as I say this is just for the constituencies what will happen now I think this evening we should know by midnight I suppose is that they will redistribute those list votes to try and top it up so the ultimate outcome is fairly proportional to the number of votes cast the BBC have a projection of what those seats will be and that projection is that the SNP will end up with 63 seats the Conservatives will end up with 31 Labour with 22 the Greens with 9 and the Lib Dems with 4 now what's really interesting here is that the SNP and the Conservatives they will have the same seats as they had before so you've got the SNP on 63 they already had 63 seats the Conservatives on 31 they already had 31 so no change there the Greens are up 3 and the Lib Dems are down 1 this is a projection I should be clear this is not the final result this is what the BBC think they will be now Nicola Sturgeon spoke to journalists this afternoon after this projection came out the SNP wouldn't win an absolute majority but there would be a pro-majority a pro-independence majority in Hollywood she was asked whether she would still seek an independence referendum in the first half of her 5 year term I mean I've said and I meant it that getting through the Covid crisis has to come first and that is what I will deliver I'll be getting back tomorrow to take the decisions to continue to steer us through the Covid crisis but you know while we don't know the final tally of seats right now it looks as if it is beyond any doubt that there will be a pro-independence majority in that Scottish Parliament and by any normal standard of democracy that majority should have the commitments it made to the people of Scotland honoured so for any Westminster politician who tries to stand in the way of that I would say two things firstly you're not picking a fight with the SNP you're picking a fight with the democratic wishes of the Scottish people and secondly you will not succeed the only people who can decide the future of Scotland are the Scottish people and no Westminster politician can or should stand in the way of that to discuss the Scottish election results and what they mean for independence I'm delighted to be joined by Michael Gray a journalist at Scotia thank you so much for coming on let's move on to the independence showdown first of all my question for you to begin is looking at those results the immediate take away is very little has changed it's quite extraordinary to have an election where after five years the two biggest parties again I'm talking about projections here but the two biggest parties end up with exactly the same seats as they had before so the SNP on 63 and the Conservatives on 31 no change in either case is one story of Scottish politics at the moment actually a sort of stability an unmoving stability yes I think the media often gets bored with repeat TV shows and SNP landslides are a bit like a repeat TV show they've won a share of the vote on the constituency that's unparalleled in UK politics since Harold Wilson in 1966 and so it's almost taken for granted that the SNP almost sweep the board and the majority of constituencies what has changed since 2016 which is the previous similar headline outcomes is Brexit and Covid of course and so the stakes were much higher in this election when in terms of the constitutional question previously it was almost assumed that independence was not on the ballot paper in 2016 because they just had the referendum two years previous this was a different vote turnout was at a historic high in the Scottish election for once this was seen as a sort of top tier election just as important as the UK general election so turnout was up voting was up particularly for the SNP got their most votes ever in an election and so independence and a referendum was on the ballot and that's of course what makes that showdown with Westminster more significant now does the matter of absolute majority for the SNP matter at all was that just a complete red herring or is there some sort of moral white that has now been lost when it comes to the argument for a second independence referendum I think that was some daft expectation management particularly from the SNP and the leadership obviously it's their interest for their party to get as much power as possible and so they try to get their vote out their core vote out to just get as many votes on both the constituency and list system and that's always been a very difficult hurdle for them to get over so yeah there's a bit of egg on their face for setting that up as the story for the election at the beginning let's look at what will happen now obviously because surgeon has stood in this election to say if we get a pro-independence majority we should be able to have a second independence referendum but it is within Boris Johnson's control on the Westminster government whether that is allowed to go forward I want to show a clip now which is of environment secretary George Eustice and he was sent out as the representative for the UK government this morning to suggest that Boris Johnson had no intention of granting Scotland a new referendum. The UK Parliament is the only anyone that can actually grant a referendum that's always been the case we've had one recently so they've had their referendum it was described as a once in a generation referendum we really don't think there's a case for another one particularly as we try to come out of this pandemic and focus on the issue of getting economic recovery going and getting back in the saddle as a country as we come out of this difficult pandemic. What's your take on what will happen next? Obviously the Conservatives seem to have no interest in granting a referendum. Nicola Sturgeon has said she has no interest in mounting an illegal referendum a la Catalunya what happens is there just going to be stalemate it's difficult to see where this goes essentially. Well first of all lecturing Westminster Tories are the absolute God's gift to the case for independence and for the SNP and the Greens that's obviously where a lot of the new sentiment particularly from left-wing voters comes for independence because they just see people like that as as you know incredibly out of touch with the world they want to see in the future they want to see for Scotland and Europe in the world so you know that will suit Nicola Sturgeon this kind of stalemate of the Tories saying no no no no it's not an uncomfortable position for Sturgeon to begin with what is uncomfortable of course is there's more people on the independence side than in the SNP who are quite frustrated and impatient so there will be pressure to push forward with a unilateral independence bill after the Covid crisis to use their terminology so that is likely to end up in the sort of UK Supreme Court judgment where the legality of Scottish legislation would be tested so that's likely to take place I would say in the course of this Parliament whether we will actually see an independence referendum I have my doubts in the next five years because as we say the SNP haven't quite put their money where their mouth is in terms of borders trade, relationship with Europe and I think if they were really gearing up for a referendum in the near future that work would already be ongoing so that being said there's a challenge within the SNP about where they take this mandate where they take this democratic case because obviously they need to actually build a coalition and a consensus outside their own party And if I were Nicola Sturgeon at this point I mean I don't want to ventriloquise I wouldn't want an independence referendum because I mean for me I don't want to get into the details of this but it seems that actually there are some real problems in the argument for independence when it comes to borders when it comes to currencies the argument for the right to have a vote is much easier to make, much stronger so long as the conservatives refuse to let the SNP hold one Nicola Sturgeon can without taking any of the risks that come with an independence referendum still maintain her role as a leader in a national project which is our right to self-determine and I mean it seems almost win-win for the conservatives to not give her a referendum do you think I'm being overly cynical in getting inside her mind do you think actually her number one priority is an independent Scotland and that is what she will be fighting for Well within the debate here we call it gradualism so you say not now but when the time is right when there's a national consensus on the question like there was for devolution that's when you put the question and there's some and the people who were more critical of that approach within and out with the SNP who are also nationalists have been routed in this election you know Alex Salmond and his posse have been sunk really so it strengthens Nicola Sturgeon's hand on that point I think the work is there the answers can be found if they put the effort in the resource to working on the difficult questions particularly when the alternative seems to be unending Tory rule from Westminster which I think is more unpopular than the prospect of perhaps some customs friction or a currency transition that's difficult Posh Scotland is particularly fear of the questions around that about what happens to their second homes their mortgages and their investments and their guilt funds and all that kind of stuff but I think you know the case is there to be made if the SNP are brave enough and sees a sense of urgency whether they will or not I'm unconvinced that they will within the next five years Michael Gray thank you so much for joining us this evening all super interesting we'll definitely be talking to you soon because this is definitely going to be as I say one of the big issues in UK politics over the next five years there were actually suggestions that what the Tories would do is call Nicola Sturgeon's bluff and say well you can have a referendum but have it straight away and they thought that actually she'd probably lose that what I'm hearing now is that actually the position from Westminster from Boris Johnson is going to be not you can never have a referendum we're rolling it out but to constantly say not now not now not now and always find different excuses to not have it now so at the moment it will be not in the coronavirus recovery then it will be not in the economic recovery that we're going to have after coronavirus then it will be whatever different excuse they can find so it's always to say we're not against the principle of a second referendum but you'll have to wait a little bit in some ways it will reflect their strategy actually I think strangely enough to Jeremy Corbyn after 2017 if you said something in 2017-2018 actually Jeremy Corbyn won't be the leader of the Labour Party after 2019 Labour are actually going to get decimated in the next general election people said this new zeitgeist Labour on the rise is falling to pieces and I think generally speaking in politics if you wait long enough the opposition will make a mistake and the Tories don't need Scotland they don't need to win a single seat in Scotland as it stands to win Westminster majorities so they're very happy for the SNP to burn themselves out on this and I think actually we'll touch on it somewhat but I think the inability for Labour to make inroads in Scotland I think is also a major part of that calculation and they'll say you know what the fact that Scotland is completely out of Labour's orbit has to extend a certain amount of political capital just constantly this whole debate is really torturing Labour in Scotland it means they can't really get any seats up there this status quo suits the Tories very well and I'm not saying that's a reason to drop independence amongst Scottish Nationalists but this suits them very well and like you say I think that holding position argument will be the one that they adopt often in politics long-term solutions are just short-term solutions you constantly top up which is what the Tories are doing on Scottish independence that can work that can work that's not just a sticking plaster that can work you know a war of attrition can be effective and ultimately the SNP are they as powerful an organisation when Sturgeon steps down will they still have this in 5, 10 years I mean I would struggle to think that is the case I think the SNP will be the biggest party in Scotland for a very long time but I think they're going to struggle to find a leader as exceptionally talented as Sturgeon so I think like you say they'll try and kick this into the long grass but I think the legal avenues that the SNP could pursue in terms of you know could you have some kind of instructive referendum in terms of you know at least testing the water of course if you lose that the real downside is that if you can't lose some ersatz version of the real thing well then why do the real thing at all I think it's absolutely fascinating but then again politics right now is moving so quickly in the UK that I think you know the situation could be very different in six months time let's move on to the English news we have today the main narrative we had yesterday was failure, failure, failure, failure for the Labour Party and across England I mean as you've seen we showed you the updated story when it comes to councillors Labour have lost massively and the Conservatives have gained massively but there are two mayoral races which will give the Labour Party some hope and this is because they're the two mayoral races which they have gained from the Conservatives so the first is the west of England that includes Bristol and Bath and surrounding areas so that was held by a Conservative this time around it was won by Labour and by a fairly decent margin in fact so let's go to those results in the first round the Labour candidate who was Dan Norris got 33.4% which was up 11.2% on the most recent election the Conservative candidate got 28.6% which was up slightly on the previous election when it comes to the first round the Greens scored very well 21.7% in the first round and the Lib Dems were on 16.3% down ever so slightly on the previous election in the second round though it looks very very good for the Labour Party 59.5% to 40.5% which is a pretty big margin considering it was held by the Conservatives the other big gain for the Labour Party also in the south of England this time in the south east instead of the south west was Cambridgeshire and Peterborough that majority was held by the Conservatives this time around Labour won it on the second round so we can go to the results in the first round the Conservatives there got 41% which was up free from the previous election the Labour Party got 33% which was up 14% on the previous election and the Lib Dems got 27% which was up free but then in the second round which is what counts Labour won by 51% to 49% so the slimmest of margins I've seen people suggest that potentially this means second round voting is going to be on its way out the moment it hands the mayoral tea to Labour is the moment it's going to get abolished this seat was previously won by the Tory by 57% in the second round so close but not that close Aaron I want your take on these two wins for Labour very much going against the grain in the rest of the country and especially on Dan Norris actually because I know you weren't a fan of Dan Norris but that's a fairly impressive result isn't it yeah I think you have to with the Dan Norris result you have to understand that the predecessor of the Conservative Mayor for West of England Tim Bowles was completely absent the mirror image of Ben Housh and what he was doing in the north east was really underwhelming the Tories were running a different candidate at this time if they'd run with the incumbent it would have been a disaster so Labour were looking to win this and of course Labour only lost this by very narrow margin the previous time and like you say I'm not particularly enamoured with Dan Norris as a candidate he supported the Iraq war he supported tuition fees he voted against an investigation into the Iraq war and the expenses scandal when he was asked about the potential franchising of bringing local bus services back under public control like in Manchester he said he would quote consult himself all the other candidates which is super interesting the Lib Dem, the Green Outletory all said they would do they would favour a solution that looks like what's happening in Manchester when it comes to buses so in one sense that's a really amazing reflection of the sort of hegemonisation of the centre left the left arguments on public services on the other hand actually well Labour's just got a guy in this role who wasn't really on board with those things so it'll be super interesting it could be that Dan Norris who's very much from the right of the party comes into the job everybody wants to be popular, they want to be re-elected he might go in that direction and that might be a really instructive story about what happens next to the Labour right centre right over the next 5-10 years because frankly they've got no policies, no ideas but they're deeply unpopular as we've seen over the last 24 hours they're not particularly good at winning things Dan Norris he has a really good opportunity because I think he's kind of won by by hook or by crook he's kind of won because he was very fortunate with what's happened with the Tory over the last 4 years very different to the West Midlands with Andy Street, very different to what's going on Teeside, Tees Valley and Mer so let's see I'm kind of it's a shame there's not a better candidate but you know he may surprise us and it is the big story here though the big picture, this is a realignment whereby Labour are doing better in southern areas with lots of graduates and really falling behind in some northern areas obviously not the north-west which we're going to talk about in a moment but in the north-east and the midlands they're doing terribly is that what's going on here it's just a shift in Britain's electoral geography well somewhat, Bristol is one of the most progressive cities in the country it's got 4 Labour MPs it's also got a big green presence it's got a big green presence on the council you've obviously got Marvin Rees, Mayor of Bristol, Labour Mayor his progressive credentials can be questioned but he's certainly he rhetorically presents himself as a progressive more the centre than the centre left but still he's not he wouldn't say he's a blair-eye so I think that's absolutely true and clearly I think Dan Norris I haven't seen the breakdown of the votes because of Bristol Andy Street won the West Midlands but Liam Byrne did win in Birmingham he could have won bigger we'll talk about that shortly and it's a similar phenomenon here so you've got this big Metro Mayor area and Labour actually doing really well in the city so I think that's correct in Stroud actually in Stroud Council again the Greens made really big inroads and you can see how the Greens in the west of England Mayor with Bristol itself with Stroud and if Labour go in a right-wing direction over the next four or five years let's see if he lasts four or five months at this point you can see how the Greens can really build them what they've already done we are going to we're going to talk about Angela Reiner and that breaking news in a moment first of all though I do want to talk about one other super important contest which really feeds into that Angela Reiner story because it's about Starmer's leadership at the Labour Party essentially so let's go straight to that while across much of England Labour suffered massive losses the party tightened its grip in greater Manchester the Labour Mayor at the Metro area increased his already massive majority from 63% to 67% of first preference votes and we can have a look at the results now so Burnham there is 67.3% that's up 3.9% on the previous election and the Conservatives who are the closest competition score less than 20% you're also seeing not a green surge like you are elsewhere in the country especially in London the Greens are up to but still only on 4.4% so complete hegemony for Labour and Andy Burnham in greater Manchester let's take a look at part of his acceptance speech many thanks though go to the wonderful, wonderful people of greater Manchester I value every single vote you have given me I know that people who normally support other parties have voted for me I will always remember that and respect it I will continue to be a voice for all people and all communities I will continue to adopt a place first not party first approach where the government gets it right and treats us fairly I will work with them but where they don't I will challenge them for you as forcefully as I can greater Manchester expects nothing less this vote sends a clear message to all Westminster parties people are buying in to English devolution they are telling you to deliver more of it not less that was pretty feisty speech there from Andy Burnham in stark contrast I think from anything we've heard from Keir Starmer over the previous days really speaking out in quite strong terms against elements of Westminster politics strongly in favour of devolution and obviously the bigger picture than what you said in the speech is how Andy Burnham has behaved over his previous term but especially over the previous 12 months he's been very willing to stand up and face down Boris Johnson on questions of values on questions of fairness during the pandemic and that's not just saying I have values it's actually embodying them living them out I said that was in contrast to Keir Starmer and combative towards Boris Johnson Burnham was also pretty explicit actually in critiquing Starmer's Labour Party or the Labour Party based in London he said it was London centric when speaking to the BBC he's lost an emotional connection with people and that's strongest in the areas that were previously most loyal to us and there's no point in glossing it that is the facts of the matter and it has deep roots it's happened not just under recently as it goes back in the early 2000's this has been something that's happening since then and they have to make some pretty fundamental changes to try and win it back and one of the ways back is more English devolution builds from the bottom up connects with people in a different way and I'm getting a bit fed up of saying this to them but they really do now need to listen and make real changes and end the London centric Labour Party that I have been in all my life quite a strong challenge from Andy Burnham he also didn't rule out a leadership challenge he said he's not looking at it in the short term in the longer term he would be potentially interested in becoming Labour leader in the distant future if the National Labour Party or the UK-wide Labour Party asked him for his help Aaron what did you make of that there were some shots fired weren't there I thought it was super interesting he's totally right about English devolution he's totally right but that's got nothing to do with the values it's not about values I think people just want political power closer to them I don't think that's a value thing and that kind of transcends values it's the quintessence of democratic politics unless you think there's absolutely no democratic tradition on the centre right which I think is clearly stupid unless you think anything beyond left-wing politics is fascism I think that's kind of errant something like Paul Mason would say it's now about values versus regressive people and what's happening with Stammer he's not chosen to be with the most progressive people and it's all about values Andy Burnham is saying no it's about political control being as close and as accountable to people as possible and my three priorities they're not values they're very material jobs, housing, public transport and that's precisely the kind of lucid material offer that we're not getting from Keir Starmer's Labour so yes it is kind of about values you want to call it that a bit more substantial going on in terms of the context of English devolution No that's fair I'll take that point we're not just going to look at Andy Burnham in Greater Manchester because there were I mean a number of examples of Labour doing very well and a number of examples of the Labour candidates who've done very well speaking out against the current direction of the Labour Party so first in Preston where we've spoken a lot about the Preston model community wealth building and all of their seats and in Salford Paul Dennett who's the city mayor a self-avowed socialist one in the first round with 59% which was up from 49% in 2016 so a very very successful result there Dennett released a statement after that victory was announced and it contained a very explicit swipe at Keir Starmer let's take a look at what he said so Dennett says the red wall voters have not moved away from the Labour Party the Labour Party has moved away from them I ask Keir and our leaders to look not only to Salford but to Greater Manchester under the leadership of Andy Burnham where our losses have been more limited and also to examples from progressive councils across the country where our fortunes have not been so bad to Mark Drakeford's successes in the Welsh Sennif to Matt Brown's continued successes in Preston there is a path Labour can take which unites our traditional voters young and new voters it is a path which isn't ashamed of our party's radical roots which taps into our history and tradition which puts forward a progressive and dynamic vision for a new and inclusive economy in the future it's a path which is socialist in its core the centre ground no longer exists as it once did the public now expect us to pick a side and articulate a bold, ambitious and progressive vision for the future which tackles poverty, inequality whilst placing the needs of working people and families at its core Aaron I suppose my question for you here is do you think the socialist campaign group have been fairly disappointing I think we can sort of say in the first year of Keir Starmer's leadership do you think in potentially the north west of England we're seeing a bit of a power base which can more effectively challenge Keir Starmer than has been done in Westminster so far I think that's exactly what we're seeing the last 24 hours have been a great news but I think they've also been really good for Lancashire Labour not entirely, it's not been resoundingly a success you see Oldham for instance there's a bunch of other places where the Tories have made breakthroughs but you look at Salford Manchester Metro Mayor you look at Preston and there's clearly something there there's a concrete substantial policy offer that is in no way attached to Andy Burnham is attacking London central politics to be clear he's attacking people in London you have huge child poverty in Newham and so forth he's talking about this obsessive political kind of merry-go-round we see between the media between consultants, elected officials in Westminster sort of SW1 cliques and obviously the north west is very far away from that who was the Labour politician the MP at Westminster who was most closely aligned with that but also geographically much proximate to that it was of course Rebecca Lombele in 2020 so I think that's right I think we're going to see a disparate centre of power now away from Keir Starmer by the way Wigan Council is another one I'm not familiar with how they kept all their seats they've done very well Wigan Council again in Lancashire and it has to be said local elections are often very different reasons why people are being elected or re-elected to the national picture but clearly people are doing good locally based activism in these places and you know let's see Keir Starmer might fall out with Lisa Nandi next and you do have these places very far away from London which have a heritage, a socialist heritage which are doing quite well and you know you've just lost in Harlepool it's probably not smart to suddenly break visibly with those parts of the party which are doing particularly well which actually when it comes to a kind of sort of cultural set of values and story are far better aligned with the voters you've just lost than you yourself so if Starmer wants to go to war with this kind of Lancashire socialism good luck to him because he's going to lose and only accelerates his demise even more rapidly but you're right I think you compare what they're doing now to the socialist campaign group it's like chalk and cheese Labour in the north west have had enormous success compared to Labour in the rest of England it's a potential power base which could challenge Keir Starmer if you're concerned about this what he has done though it seems is take a form of action which can only inflame tensions just before we went live today we have learnt that Keir Starmer sacked Angela Rayner from her roles as both the Labour Party chair and as the party's national campaign coordinator so according to the Guardian Starmer and Rayner were said to have discussed her future on Saturday with the Labour leader urging her to take a different role in the wake of the Hartley-Paw loss and a poor performance in local elections across much of England now Aaron to me this seems wild I mean it seems completely self-destructive what Keir Starmer needs to do at this point in time is really hold together any coalition he can because I think at this point in time we often say this Labour members don't like wreckers don't like it when it seems as an unprovoked attack on someone who has a democratic mandate but Keir Starmer is in an incredibly weak position at this point in time and he is now it seems going to war with one of the most popular actually members of the Shadow Cabinet and a member of the Shadow Cabinet who has connections to many of these popular successful politicians in the North West what's he doing what's the plan here in the North West it makes absolutely no sense he's probably not slept maybe this decision has been fuelled by Jameson maybe he's had a bit too much to drink I'm being serious he did the interview yesterday and he was saying we're going to take a few days calm down of course that's what we should do and now they've done this we're obviously hearing conflicting stories about that but you're absolutely right before I talk about the conflicting stories in the fall in the North West, she's very much a sconce within the power base particularly of GMB trade union movement in the North West that is very much the political base with her imagine this Michael you've just lost a by-election in Hartley-Paw and you say as a southern middle-class lawyer I'm going to take responsibility and to do that you fire the most prominent with a working-class background on your sort of front bench in your top team does that sound to you like a particularly astute thing to do? because I think it's kind of up there with the most counterproductive measures you could do in response to what we've seen over the last 24 hours, 48 hours it weakens Kirsten both internally and externally externally because labour are doing terribly because they're incredibly divided because the right has openly declared war on the left for a year and when you see the actualism they need to stop fighting each other this is like saying put me in a boxing room with Mike Tyson stop fighting each other, no Mike Tyson would kill me in one punch that's what you're seeing with the Labour leadership contrary to the parties left there is no in-fighting all the fighting is going in one direction and that's seemingly now getting worse so it weakens him externally to the public he just looks this ridiculous character who says he takes responsibility for all the fights but also weakens him internally because Angela Rainer actually has far more networks within the parliamentary Labour Party than Kirsten Armadas I would say she's one of the best networked politicians in the Labour Party she has contacts with those on the left those in the centre some on the centre right she has geographic connections through the labour movement I find astonishing that said she was in charge through the campaign it was a very bad campaign I get it but to do this and now and particularly after his response to the results yesterday he looked shambolic ridiculous, absurd he didn't look with it this doesn't look like these don't reflect the actions of a man who is on top of his game they look desperate they look like somebody who might be at the door sooner than we think I also do think it wasn't a good campaign but the reason it wasn't a good campaign is because there was no message there was no vision and it's not Angela Rainer's job it's not the party chair's job to bring the message and the vision that's the job of the leader it seems like a bizarre response to me we can get some more detail on this this is a tweet from Ben Kentish at LBC he tweets a Labour Party source has said Kirsten said he was taking for responsibility to change that means changing how we run our campaigns Angela will continue to play a senior role in Kirsten so it's very much like what we've heard from Kirsten and his sources people close to him over the past two days which is I'm taking full responsibility but it's also someone else's fault I'm taking full responsibility but it's Jeremy Corbyn's fault but now it's Angela Rainer's fault there is a go on Aaron I think basically somebody had to carry the can for what's happened and he's decided it's not going to be Jenny Chapman who's that's who it should be his chief political adviser I talked about this last night it was her decision to put Paul Williams as the candidate for Harley-Paul he was a remainder in a seat that voted leave he got thrown out he lost the seat in 2019 because of that Ditto for her in Darlington so what does she do she decides to get Paul Williams into Harley-Paul someone that voted 70% leave and rather than make her carry the can which would be the right thing to do Kirsten said no Jenny Chapman can stay where she is she's organising reshuffles at 5am over the phone from Harley-Paul with no sleep that seems like a bit of a rickety operation no no leave her there she seems really professional and competent we're going to get rid of the most popular most networked sort of politician who can unite the party against me we're going to get rid of her instead you have to ask the question what does Jenny Chapman have to come up does she have some hard drive on him you know why would you do that to Angela Rainer and keep Jenny Chapman in her role so clearly somebody had to take the blame for this it's an arbitrary decision which can only backfire I think I think you're right to bring up Jenny Chapman so I can just see according to the Guardian a senior labour aid claim there's a lot of pressure to sack her also this is Angela Rainer from MPs and from staff then the Guardian report been contacted by the Guardian on Friday and singled out other key figures for Blaine including Starmer's chief of staff Jenny Chapman as you're saying there Aaron there is one possibility here which I suppose is potentially suggested by that final sentence in the Labour sources statement to Ben Kentis Angela will continue to play a senior role in Keir's team so it could be that this was actually a reshuffle and she's going to get quite a high profile job in the shadow cabinet but they just leaped sacking before they leaped the new job although I suppose presumably if they've sacked her it wasn't at her will they could have tried to persuade her Angela we think you'd be better as shadow health or whatever do you think that she might end up with a role that's equally as important and then we might all think of this as a storm and a teacup I just don't know why you would make any decisions now Michael given what's happened given the internal fight he said Labour must change they must Well I think Michael for me you know Keir Starmer when you look at this country you think Carillion how does that happen or how do these outsourcing giants keep on failing and yet they get new cushy contracts it's because they never face the consequences and that genre of leadership which we see in those companies is exactly what I see with Keir Starmer you never take responsibility where there's a mistake somebody else must have made it and I think he comes from the very same kind of corporate political culture that stuff emerges from you know there's a social phenomenon in this country where stuff goes wrong and nobody in charge seems to take any responsibility for it and I've very seen that you know very much see that reflected in Keir Starmer it's just down to his mannerisms his inability to actually lucidly talk about these things in an affable relatable way to the manner in which the main victims of the Keir Starmer leadership dared to be working class women you know you look at Rebecca Longbailey you look at Angela right now you look at Dawn Butler not being putting the first shadow cabinet come on come on man John McDonald agrees as well John McDonald tweets Keir Starmer said yesterday that he took full responsibility for the election result in Hartlepool and other losses instead today he's scapegoating everyone apart from himself this isn't leadership it's a cowardly avoidance of responsibility those are slightly more feisty words from John McDonald than we've come to be to be used to in the previous days he tends to be quite reluctant to speak out against Keir Starmer do you think this could be significant Aaron? I think so I think you know if there is a leader of the Labour left it's John McDonald quite frankly he's not done his job for the last 18 months at the same time you know he's an older man he's worked really hard since 2016 it shouldn't be on him but those are just the historical circumstances we're in so I think if anybody's going to push the boat out on this set the agenda it's likely to be John McDonald as well as other people about you know in the northwest I just want to say there are two names that are floating around now from the shadow cabinet who make me pushed out one is Andy McDonald I think he's still at transport you can correct me if I'm wrong but he was previously in the Corbyn cabinet another is Kat Smith they're both from the left and they both represent northern downs northern seats I should say so again you know the southern lawyer the the remain lawyer who has just been you know hit for six in the north of England has responded by taking out on northern MPs very strange there is no plan here I think the only interpretation you can see of this in terms of a sort of politically savvy way is he wants to get rid of all these people anyway including Angela Rayner and okay it's kind of like the shock doctrine you know there's a there's a shit storm here you know what we're going to get bad front pages people in me calling for me to resign let's just do all the stuff we want to do anyway let's accelerate it that's possibly what they're thinking the kind of advice you get from somebody like Peter Mandelson the point is however I don't think his pre-existing political position is sufficiently strong to get away with it we've got a tweet cute oid 242 tweets on the hashtag tiskey sour you said Angela Rayner sacking doesn't make sense don't forget that the Labour right will burn the house down rather than lose control and their well-paid jobs I think there's a lot to that and there's a lot of evidence for that from the past 48 hours we have seen a lot of people from the right of the Labour Party make it seem as if they really don't care about election results all they want is an excuse to go further and further to the right and expunge the left and even the centre left from the party you know Angela Rayner as far as I know isn't even in the socialist campaign group right but now she's on the way out a couple more comments Pipa Krara hearing from one Shadow Cabinet Minister that Lisa Nandi is definitely next to be sacked because people around Keir think she's disloyal wow that can't be true that can't be true she's a political editor of the mirror but can you imagine if you go to Angela Rayner and Lisa Nandi I suppose they're the potential challenges right I mean they are the potential challenges wow but the thing is Lisa Nandi again Wigan as we said they've kept all their councillors it's a northern she was a councillor initially in London I believe it was west London but whatever that's her political brand these are the last people you should be sacking Keir wow alright let's very quickly go through London we still don't have the final results which means we'll probably talk about it more on Monday but let's look at the current state of play I mean it's fairly clear where the results are going to land which is that Sadiq Khan is going to win but it's a pretty disappointing result for him we were sort of expecting it to be overwhelming because he was thought to be quite popular Sean Bailey was a terrible candidate but actually it's going to be a closer contest than the contest between Sat Goldsmith and Sadiq Khan before Sadiq Khan was the incumbent and before Labour became so absolutely dominant in London as they have been for the last couple of years I think as of now 11 out of 14 London districts have been accounted for so there's three more to come and the current standing 41% for Labour, 35% for the Conservatives 8% for the Greens and 4% for the Lib Dems a reasonable night for the Greens but very disappointing for Sadiq Khan that will be four points lower than he got in 2016 and basically I mean everything really should have been in his favour this I think it's not a major upset I think this could be interesting because Sadiq Khan in my view has been probably one of the most disappointing politicians in the country he's got the biggest bully pulpit other than the Prime Minister probably, your Mayor of London one of the big global cities you should be out there every day talking about affordable housing talking about climate change talking about whatever really making your mark he's completely invisible I don't know anything about Sadiq Khan apart from that he quite like Remain and didn't like Donald Trump in this day and age that is not enough to inspire anyone to go out and vote for you I asked a housemate today do you remember any what do you think Sadiq Khan's done everyone I know voted Labour either one or two I can't think of a simple thing what about Boris Johnson bikes at least Boris Johnson had bikes they were actually Ken Livingston's idea Boris Johnson is a clever PR guy Sadiq Khan nothing I can't name a single achievement he's had I mean I think in many ways it looks like this is going to be the ideal result for progressive because I mean I'd be very very depressed to live for four years under the conservatives candidate under Bailey but at the same time I think Sadiq Khan has had an easy ride because people have assumed he's popular and people have been quite reluctant to attack him to point out that he hasn't done anything and I think this means that there will actually be a really really strong campaign next time around to have a proper progressive who will stand and represent Londoners but also be a real platform for left-wing politics in this country so a damaged Khan who remains mayor is for me a good outcome alright let's end it there Aaron Bustani it's been an absolute pleasure two days in a row a privilege and my pleasure Mike I just want to give a quick shout out to the activists in Worthing they've never in Worthing they've never had a single county councillor before, ever ever ever they've won five up until four years ago they hadn't won a single borough councillor for more than 40 years they now have 10, tomorrow they might be taking that councillor into no overall control so there are some amazing stories from Labour's side none of it has anything to do with the national leadership it's all down to local activists on the ground long may that continue solidarity to people out there but particularly those fantastic activists in Worthing a brilliant place to end the evening we'll be back on Monday thank you so much for watching tonight for all of your support if you are a diner thank you so much if not please go to navaramedia.com forward slash support we really do appreciate it for now you've been watching Tiskey Sour on Navaramedia good night