 Okay, happy Sunday. Hope you are well. Thought I'd jump on early and talk about the week ahead because of course we've got three of the major central banks where the decisions in the coming days that being the Bank of England European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve and I've also got some interesting stocks news to update you on one regarding the airline makers Boeing and Airbus in a particularly large order That's been placed by Air India and then a really big potentially the largest health care M&A deal this year So I'll I'll explain more in a moment, but before I begin check out the Retrader competition I'll put the details to this in the comments of this video and Essentially we are running a competition through the month of December up to the 31st of this month Where all you need to do is replay on your mobile phone three games of some of the most historic moves in markets of 2022 to be in with a chance to then have a fully sponsored place on our summer analyst training program in the Summer of 2023 all you need to do is enter play the three games And it's totally randomized will pick a winner at the end of the year and I'll be announced in the new year So if you're a student hundred percent check this out It would definitely be worth it but look let's dive in and let's talk a little bit about what we can expect starting off with the US and CPI before we get into the FMC because on Tuesday we get the last piece of crucial information to really arm the Monetary Policy Committee at the Fed of what their intentions are then not just for the right decision But for the subsequent period ahead and obviously December being very critical meeting because we're going to get the various Projections as well about what they think about the economy But let's just talk about the CPI for the moment now if this number comes in low And obviously it's likely to boy share prices into year-end might initiate that Santa rally because it's likely to temper their expectations around further Fed hikes in the future the CPI report here as you can see stocks Typically over the past six months the S&P has had an average move of about three percent in either direction on the day that the CPI Report is released That's not that surprising. It's a particularly large degree of volatility But not surprising because it is the key component that really has been driving policy decisions for the last 12 or 18 months The actual headline reading on an annualized basis is expected to decline to seven point three percent from seven point seven But much like with the US as we're going to get in the UK The eyes will be on the core component as well in terms of then for that comes a day before the Fed The Fed in itself is very much expected to hike rates by 50 basis points The market probability at the moment is around seventy eight percent for that outcome So investors are really much more focused on what Powell has to say in the press conference afterwards and looking for these potential hints About what comes next pricing in the futures market shows the Fed policy rate peaking at about four point nine percent in the first half of next year So if they do hike fifty as expected the current market pricing further out would be indicative of one more fifty basis point Hike to reach that peak then in this hiking cycle Given it's a December meeting, of course Then the dot plot will be key of the summary of economic projections of what the market will be Basing its real movement on the back of given how fairly assured the rate hike in itself is and this is going to be about the trajectory of rate Rises in the future and what does that look like and one of the key things here is the New York Fed president John Williams a Close colleague of Powell if you kind of look at the matrix of the Hawk dove list Williams is pretty much aligned with Jerome Powell and He said he was indicated that he does not expect the bank to cut interest rates till at least 2024 so not next year a dot plot showing tighter policy through the end of 2023 Could then force investors at present betting on loose and monetary policy to adjust those positions Now what might that mean higher yields firmer dollar negative for stocks in that that kind of scenario So that's the Fed and that's coming on Wednesday Bank of England so the Bank of England is set to be a fairly contentious one actually Because the market is heavily priced that the BOE is going to hike rates The market implied probability is around 80% that they're gonna lift rates by 50 basis points That will take this is the black line here You can see they have been lagging the likes of the Fed who are already on for and they're gonna be going higher of course this week That would be then lifting up rates in the UK to the highest level of three and a half percent in 14 years for a bit of context Now some banks like Nomura the Japanese Bank actually expect policy makers to be split four ways for the first time since 1997 so a little bit unique to the Bank of England as opposed to the others ECB in the Fed will get this week If the Bank of England have nine monetary policy committee members and we get a vote count So we know precisely what that split was now if I just flash this up This is the current look at the Hawk dove kind of barometer dove on the left Hawkesh on the right obviously in inflation conditions rates rising most people tilt into that side But there's a big divergence here You can see from ten very row and Dengar all the way down to Catherine Manning Johnson Haskell And what Nomura are saying is that potentially you can have a four-way split So let me just break this down a little bit and I'm gonna use the Bank of America UK economists forecast as a bit of a reference point So he said that the vote split could be two Five two so the total being nine the split being two members voting for no change five for a 50 basis point rate hike which is the street consensus and Two for a three-quarter point increase so the most hawkish So you'd likely say in this case man and Haskell now if there was a fourth Split which is what Nomura is saying which should be the first time since was it the late 90s that that happened Then the potential here is that one of the dubs opts opts for a quarter point increase So you'd basically have members voting for no change a quarter basis point a 50 basis point move and then a three-quarter Percentage move so that would be a split How do you trade that sort of thing when it comes out? Well, I'd probably say look stay out of harm's way when there's that many The initial reaction would be so fiery in that situation There's no point even attempting to try to trade it the key there is going to be really what commentary comes out with this because again What makes the Bank of England unique you get minutes alongside the policy statement and the vote count so forth So that's going to be quite critical at the last two meetings It hasn't been too unusual the Bank of England's committee has been split three ways and the balance of powers here Has been based on that some members were concerned about persistent tightness in the UK labor market and Signs of rising inflation expectations, whereas the others so the other side they feared at 18 month lag for policy to take effect Meaning essentially by the time these interest rate these consecutive ones that have been happening start to really hit the economy It's going to come at a time when the economy really needs the most support and so actually it's better to stop now The other thing of course from the Bank of England is it's a really busy week in terms of the calendar So on Monday as you can see here You actually get GDP figures They like to show the economy bounce back in October after a sharp decline in September when many businesses were closed Of course for the death of Queen Elizabeth the second Tuesday we get jobs data may show signs that wages continue to grow fast under the Bank of England's comfort level And on Wednesday you get the inflation reading out of the UK where for November may show a dip from the prior months 11.1% but the core readings expected to be a little bit more sticky And that's the one that the market more broadly will be looking at so those data points all as a bit of a prelude to the actual rate Decision which will come the day after Changing tact then and a quick Talk about Christine the guard and the ECB and so what they're trying to wrestle with here is the eurozone inflation is falling The economy is on the brink for a recession and interest rates are at their highest levels that they've been in Europe since the 2008 financial crisis so most economists think it's time for the ECB to start to just Ease off the the pedal a little bit and start doing smaller rate rises So we're talking a 50 basis point move much in line with what we've just discussed about the Bank of England The Fed rather than the prior two meetings from the ECB where they've hiked by 75 basis points Now most economists expect the ECB to revise its inflation projections Upwards for the next two years due to rising wages and a delayed impact of high energy costs hitting consumers But most think the central bank will still forecast inflation returning to target by 2025. So remember only for the ECB and the Fed do we get these latest projections the Bank of England's on a different slightly different cycle The other thing if we flip back to the calendar that aside from the central bank decisions in those UK numbers is on Friday We get the various flash PMI numbers So UK included but also the eurozone and they will show how the economy is faring at the end of the fourth quarter Expect it to continue to signal contraction But by just how deep is the question for what markets and policy makers are really looking for so quite a busy day to end The week now just briefly I mentioned two stock stories and really because they're quite milestone ones This is a picture of air India. You might be wondering. Why am I showing you an air India? Carrier and the reason why is that that company is close to placing a landmark order for as many as 500 jetliners worth tens of billions of dollars From both split Airbus and Boeing as it carves out an ambitious Renaissance under the Tata group conglomerate and this is all according to industry sources reports over the weekend Such a deal could top $100 billion at less prices including any options and it would rank among the biggest by a single airline in volume Terms so keep an iron Airbus and Boeing at the market open on Monday The other companies to keep an iron To start off the week is this This is in the Wall Street Journal Amgen is in advanced talks to buy drug company horizon therapeutics According to people familiar with the matter in the journal It's a takeover likely to be valued at well over 20 billion US dollars and would mark the largest healthcare merger of the year If it were to proceed from this point the US biotech company Was the last of three suitors standing in an auction for horizon according to those sources After the French drug maker Sanoffi said on Sunday. It was now out of the running. All right, that is it from me So hopefully that was useful Feel free to drop any comments. Have you got any questions at all and don't forget to check out the re-trader competition If you are a student to win a fully sponsored place on our summer program next year. All right, that's it. Take care Now see you next time