 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger Technician Hour. With your host, Hazel Chapman, call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Good morning everyone. This is Thursday. What's the third? And this is the early edition. I'm recording it to be replayed at my usual time at 10. I have to be out. So we're looking at the Dow yesterday made this cluster formation. You see these four bars after the low of the 24th of Feb. It matches the 24th of January where there were four candles. Remember that everything was going well. There was suddenly this aberration. I don't remember what it was exactly. And the market pulled back instead of spiking up. And we had four sessions of sideways action. So the big question is, do we get this fifth candle that matches? And that was the move of the 31st of January. A nice breakout to the upside today. Or do we continue in this holding pattern? The bias right now is for some kind of a rally. We'll see what happens if after, I would say, if after 1.30 this afternoon, the Dow is holding a plus 100 or more. That'll be really good action, especially after yesterday. But if it's just kind of minus 40, like in the range of not going anywhere, then it's in a holding pattern. So we're looking at the futures. The Dow futures were down about 70, 80 points earlier on. Now they're up 20. And you can see there's 14 periods. There's black 14 periods in the daily chart. Period moving average is really strong resistance. And if there is a move in the futures above the high that was made on the 1st, which was 34065, which we can hold in the 34100 or higher area, I think that'll be good short-term action because it's saying, for the moment, we're looking at US markets. We're not looking overseas. We're looking at, wow, I mean, I'll get there in a moment. Crude oil just is relentless to the upside. So here we go. We're looking at the Dow futures up now 43. S&P futures are up. I'll go to the continuous contract. Up five. If you look at the S&P, it had the same kind of cluster formation. Look, here we are. There it was four candles. And again, the fifth candle. That was a candle of the 31st of January broke out. And we'll see if we're going to have the same pattern today. There's a lot of evidence to say that after the move yesterday, a kind of a relief rally with the beginning of the month fund buying, there should be a bias to the upside. And then we'll see whether or not anything happens to counteract that with bad news from overseas. We'll continue. We're looking at the QQQ and the X100 trading at 347.11, down 0.8 cents. It didn't act as well yesterday, but it's still a cluster formation. And any move, it doesn't have to actually hold, but any move to the 352 level in the next two days would be a positive to say, hey, at least there's a counter-trading rally to this big move down. Looking at the IWM, the Russell 2000, IWM is trading at 204.38 up 14 cents. Now that had a much nicer move yesterday. It actually started. 190.60 was the low of the 24th of January and 24th of February was 187.92. So it broke that. And this is brand new leg A right here goes to peak A because the other one was a peak B minus because it failed. And this is a new leg B. So I'm thinking here that IWM has a little bit more strength than the others. Just on the left side, the weekly chart is still quite as is the monthly. So we'll see if there's a nice bounce. Now we're going to get to the real story. Gold. Gold is up 13 at 19.35. I normally would grab the outside bars of a big spike that comes back down. I grab them and I join a rectangle and I say, okay, make it as simple as possible. Within that we've got very clear outside resistance and support levels. And that's 1976 on the upside. And the downside is 18. 18.83 or something. 18.78. 18.78. But I like to do this. I say, where's the most prominent near term rectangle formation? What are we trading with it? And that's what it shows. It says that today if gold spikes, oh, I just lost that, spikes above 19, let's go to 1953. And it's a 1935. That would be a big move to the upside. That would be a big positive. Say we work our way towards the high of 1976.5 and the continuous contract from the 24th of February. And if it starts to trade, not just slide down, but if it starts to trade below 1916 for more than an hour and a half. It says on a very short-term basis, gold is taking a bit of a breather. Looking at silver, silver at this point, this is 8.11 in the morning. Silver is near that left side high and it's holding it's 25.57 up 38 cents right now. It looks to me like it wants to go to a D about 25.7. Remember, silver kind of catches up to gold and then when they're all looking together as if, oh, wow, this is great. Suddenly you get this big pullback. Let's hope it happens. Yeah, just for geopolitical reasons, more than anything else. And we're looking at the dollar. This is so strange in history. You can go back and you'll see that gold and the dollar usually trade inversely. Not percentage-wise, but just generally in the direction. One goes up, other goes down. For a while now, they're going in the same. They're not moving counterpoint. They're moving together in unison. And gold, the dollars at 97.57 up 22 cents made a recovery high yesterday of 97.89. And this is all going towards what we had for a long time. Subscribers, we've been long for ages. We've been looking at this level of 97.80 as one of the levels of a target on the left side that will then have to break out to start moving into the 100 area. Can it do that? Well, let's just see how it handles this week, going into Wednesday of next week, middle of next week. We'll see if the dollar is holding here. Because at some point, I'm not sure if gold and dollar will go up in unison. Gold is going up as a fear factor, geopolitical fear factor. Dollar is going up as a currency favorite. It might be right, it might be wrong, but that's just what happens. Money internationally flows into the dollar. Let's go to high-grade copper. High-grade copper is up sharply. It's up 0.097 at 4.76. This is either it's a leg E, or we're looking at... This is a tough one, because it is going towards the 4.82 highs of last year, where it suddenly pulled back very sharply to the 4.13 area I think it was. And the weekly chart is making another beautiful cup formation. These double cup formations to the upside can be quite strong going towards the previous major resistance. And if you're looking at the monthly chart, the first resistance is in October of 2021 at 4.839. This is the continuous contract. And back in May of 2021 at 4.913. And you see the lovely synchronicity of one, two, three, four, five bars going back to the high, and now we've got one, two, three, four. This is the fifth bar, and it's big green, and it's just the beginning of the month. So we've got the whole month to see whether or not it's going to break out, because if it does, you've got this left-side, right-side price time-match that I drew in a long time ago that was at the high of 2011. February of 2011 at 5.125. The first half of the month was two. Now it's coming back, and it looks to be like that's the height of that something. I'll be back in a moment. Because of that, the building addition will come back in two, six hours, and this is 8.15 in the morning. What's separating you from the most successful men and women on Wall Street? That's right. Information. Having all the information gives us the perspective we need to place the right trades at the right time. The TAS Profile Scanner is the premier market-profile-based scanner. 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TFNN Educating Investors Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 Hi everyone doing an early edition at 8.18 a.m. in the morning and we're looking at the dark futures of 69 SP futures are up 8 just haven't done this for a while here's the one minute chart just a really nice kind of up and down trading pattern that was completely different of course when we get to when we get to this afternoon but in the meantime back to the answers we're looking at look just up and down up and down then a very long up from 5.20 this morning goes up to 6.30 a.m. goes around about 43.80 in the many futures drops sharply down at 6.50 goes to the 4.67 or 66 area and rally sharply and then pulls back to the 200p the moving average has just been a whipsaw like a a sine wave pattern and then it held it and now it's starting to move very nicely so it's going to be very important I see a bias to the upside today unless it's just some exogenous event that really knocks the market down but it will pull the market up quite well today so look at Crural up 358 makes a record at least in the short-term period it goes right to the 116.57 high this is just unbelievable going from 85 in about 8 or 9 sessions to 116.57 that's gone let me just take that away yeah this is very I mean this is significant what kind of effect is it going to have on the world in terms of the economies all these bills I mean I remember getting my what was it a bill in February and I couldn't believe it how electricity had gone up so sharply I thought was that a mistake but it wasn't a mistake so we're looking at Crural up very sharply here I believe coal's going to be the next thing that moves up looking as I said high-grade copper seems to have rallied quite nicely hasn't broken out short-term but in the weekly chart we're looking at the 482 level as a potential now this is going to be very interesting look at the TLT the TLT dropped sharply yesterday from the 142 33 area down to 136.40s today's up $1.47 and 137.94 so it's telling me that the yields are in a higher range haven't started to pull back significantly and they won't pull back until the TLT starts to trade towards the 200p moving average of $145.15 but more importantly what we're looking at is look at this monthly chart that monthly chart says $133.19 was the low in March of 2021 it rallies all the way to $155.12 and then this is the iShares 20th Treasury Bond Fund goes to $134.51 well less than $0.60 away from the low and it's still an ugly candle and look at this the candle of last month almost like the Chapman Wave Roman candle and we've already been halfway into it so I'm watching this really closely because it looks to me no matter what the Fed wants to do the rates are going to try to move higher so we'll see what they do, what the Fed does to be able to maintain it at a lower level we'll see if that's even possible now let's go to the Bitcoin or the GBTC this is the Bitcoin futures they were down about $360 now they're down $160 they're holding quite nicely here and the $45,745 is a 200 period exponential moving average the resistance in the daily the weekly has as we speak at $40,470 and if we can push into the everything else is moving if we can get to the $46,800 area it doesn't have to close it just has to get there to start a leg actually a leg B $5,905 somewhere on there okay next thing we're looking at is I'm not sure what's happening over there it says on, off, on, off doesn't matter, okay now a bunch of things we want to look at within the context of patterns let's just go back to this one right here let me show you, this is where I show my subscribers to my opening call every day the pattern that we're looking at is the match from the 24th of January $33,150 low up goes makes a peak A and then it stalls for a couple of days but all of this was really a containment from the low of four bars at the pink nine period exponential moving average then what happens is it spirals up, pulls back and it only goes to a peak C C minus makes the dreaded H pattern and fails so today is the fourth day of this from the low of the 24th of February at $32,272 in the Dow we're going to be watching to see does it break about $34,095 to start a strong leg B what happens my suspicion is it's probably going to do that yesterday I had a choice of adding to a particular position or I made the choice could not be in a choice or starting a position at the gap up opening in the Dow thinking wow so close to the low $32,272 opening up at maybe $32,280 or something like that gives me a chance to have at least for subscribers have a decent counter trend relief rally I didn't make the right choice I chose instead the one that didn't work and this one should have been the one I chose and now I could have got back in today but the risk reward just because of what's going on internationally said to me you've missed your best entry rather choose something else that has the potential to move the same percentage but maybe lower priced and that's what we've done so and if you're looking at this chart right here this is a chart with the nine period expansion moving average green is positive pink is negative and you can see it is still pink it hasn't turned green I don't know when it will turn green it could be soon we're getting very oversold in the world's volume so we'll be watching that closely there's a lot going on and in the meantime let me just do a couple of things like some questions and I'm going to get to that yep hi-ho and what I want to look at was yes so Gigi sent me a note that we saw that power backs quarter point rate rise and Mars despite Ukraine war effects correct and that should be a bit of a relief to the market just at the moment we'll see what happens now let's go through these things look the RTH this is the S&P retail ETF 20% Amazon has had a very nice leg A and now it's a peak A and now it's in a leg B I'm not able yet to give it a sign that says it's in a buy mode but this is very nice action from the bottom but when you're looking at it in the weekly chart wow that's quite a from 200 down to 100 and was a 64 so it says that within retail there's been an effect and that effect has really pulled it back very sharply but if you look at the monthly this is just a three month correction so far this is the fourth month we're going into and that just says now we can go to the XRT the XRT is the S&P retail this is equal weighted so Amazon doesn't distort that one made a peak C that's the only way I can count it unless I count this as a phantom peak it's a little bit too big to call a phantom peak it looks like a peak D and that pullback is much more serious so Amazon doesn't distort it and yet you've got what JWN you've got these retail stocks and it's spectacular moves yesterday so we've got to put this whole thing together I'll be back in a moment, half of this is up that's a very good side, S&P futures are up third we'll be right 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8.30 in the morning and we're looking at the e-mini futures which ran up to 404396.50 it's the moment to go at a peak Dean of the Chapman wave it's time to pull back just a tad but that ten minute chart is only a leg B and that could be a good sign alright so what we're looking at here is two different things I was talking about how JWN which is Nordstrom had a spectacular one moment of trading the 20s yesterday and the next minute off the hours or at least early in the morning it pops up into the 20s to 27s so that kind of action is really important to monitor and what we're really looking at in terms of the XRT is to say that the US economy as it stands right at this particular moment if measured by chart patterns is saying if this is just the start of a move to the downside because of the concerted effort if there's an international incident this is more than an incident this is war an international incident and you get the S&P look at this we're talking about how the monthly canals are telling us so much look if we go to the S&P monthly chart look at that this is just a red candle it's called the chapter of Roman candle right there the first candle because it opens Roman candle because it's a firework right you light it it goes up and what happens is at tops over all the years for instance in 2007 we saw doji candle I think it was after the top was made the next candle and then what happens if it gets filled and it creates another doji candle you've got to be careful because if on any weekly basis if there is a close below a key metric and that would be the wick of this last candle the February candle a weekly close below 4280 that's called it that's just suggesting there's a good chance that you're going to retest the most recent low of the 41-14 levelish so we've got to watch this but if in fact we start to consolidate and for whatever reason by the end of the month not intermonth but by the end of the month there's a move towards the open of the Roman candle in this case the second candle this is the candle of February and it opens at 4519 if we get even close to that used up time but the other thing that I'm looking at is that the nine period moving average over the 14 period moving average says to get that green now to get it pink by closing underneath the 14 period moving average there would have to be a move that takes it down to 4000 or probably below 4000 so those are metrics that I'm looking at in the monthly chart and I don't want to get too carried away by saying the commodities around the key commodities that are really important moving up not just sharply, not just exponentially but these are almost vertical moves look at the crude oil that in the last look at this monthly chart now people say oh you know the crude oil and all that it's just been going up because of the Ukraine situation what are you talking about the trade in crude oil and the continuous contract most recently that was December of 2021 on the weekly chart that's the week of the third it's been going up ever since and that was kind of a warning to say something's happening you've got to be careful yes the exponential move right here that vertical move after the doji candle of last week just moving this candle moving so sharply and green we've got all the way to go to Friday on a cultured basis by any metric I'm sure but if you're looking put-call ratios and everything in the crude oil contract I haven't done that but my guess is that the outweighing of the calls to the puts must be enormous and if you're looking at the SCO the SCO is the inverse that is the reverse crude oil goes up the SCA which is the pro shares ultra short bloom work two times short the MACD is just across negative stochastic still a 30% it could even go down to the 15% of 8% that's just a big negative but it doesn't mean to say that at some point there is mention of bringing oil out our reserves whatever it is now on a very short basis I can understand that but you don't really want to be bringing your crude oil your reserves out now when you aren't making it up anyway it's just going to be expended and not replaced that to me is really a crux it's a very important aspect so that's crude oil now I want you to do a couple other things the VIX index pullback sharpening yesterday into day today's down 51 cents at 30.23 if there is going to be let me do this for some of you you might be tuning in late and if you listen to my show which will be in two hours time this right now will be 20% it will be 10.35 instead of 8.35 a.m if you're looking at this the pattern that I'm looking at here is that see the way on this loss bounce to 35 the VIX index didn't go to the 29 level and even though the news was way worse it didn't break the COVID inflation Russia hysteria of the 24th actually that was that was a coincidence on the 24th the lowest 24th in the market and the high was in the VIX so so far it's saying there are things being done that are immediately raking some of the some of the the damage that's economically that's morally just it goes through everything and the VIX is telling us I'm still really high at 30.25 but if I do pull back to maybe the 28 to 87 14 period exponential moving average there should be 130 point move at least in the Dow S&P should S&P fuses up 10 they should be up 22 or something like that so that's what we're looking at and the reason why I mentioned that is because this is the first session and I've made it a very critical session for me in terms of the match of this bar right here it gave the 31st of January after the low that was made on the 24th of 33,150 in the Dow we went to a lower low the dreaded age was a failure pattern but within two sessions actually was within one session we went back up above 33,150 and we've been there for a while so that's important today is the first session if you're looking at the YM you'll see there's just a break of the 9 the pink 9 period moving average and we're resting up against the 14 period moving average a very big move could even take us to on Friday maybe 34,300 the 200 period moving average I would like to see that just in terms of relief to see what's working now what a stock that I mentioned just a while back if I can even think of the name snap I'd said that this is a day late it's not exactly my Chapman Wave volume price climax reversal on the fourth the lowest the third was a huge gap down with massive volume major volume at 24.32 on the third of February and I said I this is it was the next day a huge item reversal to the upside and what I said is I believe this is a Chapman Wave volume price climax reversal and then looking at it closer that day I mentioned the following day no it missed it by one day it was the gap to the upside I think that was earnings I don't know what it was and I said the rule of thumb in the Chapman Wave methodology is that when you get the Chapman Wave volume price climax reversal there's a really good chance that you're going to go see the price hold way above that low for a minimum of 28 days if it's lost over 28 days it can even double to 56 days but there we are are you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with become an apex predator in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den trading room only at tfnn.com the Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas join the den and surround yourself with the sharpest minds in the trading world subscribers to the Tiger's Den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with our tfnn hosts live during their shows interact with other tigers and as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day subscribe to the Tiger's Den risk free with our 30 day money back guarantee and become part of the tfnn 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Tiger TV We're making that snap ink it's up 9 cents at 3746 and what I said was it should hold and it's 27 days tomorrow it'll be 28 so I think we'll leave I haven't counted percent but that's what I think it is and I also said that doesn't mean to say it goes from a bicycle to a buy mode but in the meantime it's just holding steady in a rectangle formation stuck here if we can ever get to the 4250 area that'll be a nice breakout to the upside in the meantime it's just stuck but it is holding way above the 2432 low in that particular technique in the chapel now a whole bunch of things GDX yes question is GDX what about the GDX GDX has the rectangle formation 3576 3607 was the height that was made five sessions ago and let me just draw this in the rectangle formation and of course in this particular instance there's now treating the 34 60 level of support I don't from the way there's a leg D in the weekly chart not a particularly good looking pattern in the monthly until I have to wait for the close of the month of March but I am going to say that the Chapel Way Falling Axe Formation has got a third line and this line up here is a second Falling Axe Formation and it says that any week that there's a close above 3750 will really improve the monthly chart then we can look at the monthly chart and say hey now we can draw in the pattern I'm going to do a little premature of the Falling Axe Chapel Way Formation turning into a cup formation and that says that gold is in play and one of the reasons why we have a gold stock we're trying to have a mix of all these different areas is because as a an icon of fear geopolitical fear gold has always been the go to place and that can help the stocks in fact some of the stocks have done really well some stocks actually have just been kind of they've been okay but not great so I am saying that this is a time for this particular chart it's also a particular time of course in the configuration that's going on but I'm just talking about chart formations because the weekly chart says to be able to make a confirmed cup formation there so it helps the weekly it helps the monthly chart you want to see this candle right here the candle of 18th of June 2021 with a high of 3829 you want to see at least it opened at 3757 3829 was the high so 3757 has to kind of be your target in the shorter term meaning weekly so shorter term could be two weeks or so so that's what we're looking at it also says from the from the daily chart the stochastic went to 80% but it's not holding over 80% in fact it is at 77% it needs to hold in the 80% level to say hey I'm here for a longer period of time this is a daily chart of course longer period of time is less than I'd be saying if it was a weekly chart but that's what you need to see and as soon as that happens the 90s way above the 14th period moving average in the day it says that for gold the gdx the gold miners etf to break down you'd probably have to see a close under 32 to get that 9 to close under the 14th period moving average right now I just don't think I see that so that's within the context of the other things that we're looking at that was that the next thing I was asked about was oh sdco can I look at that that was 7290 this is Southern Copper Corporation almost got the same cup formation that we're looking at in gold this is the weekly chart weekly is in leg D a close a peak D underneath the previous high in this case the high of the 14th of May at 8329 it's a 7290 right now we would say oh it's going to take a little time to consolidate but this leg D needs to get it needs to continue strong the MACD is very good the stochastic under 80% it's running and the on balance volume is really good in fact it's just getting a tad overboard in the weekly but the daily says hey there could be a lot to go there's only leg C in the daily chart so sdco tremendous support between 71 and 69 this is 7291 right now this is on a shorter term basis our next question I had was where did it go where did it go yeah forward forwarded a big move yesterday but that was just on talk talks about spitting off the electric vehicle side of it 25 you remember going to the high of the 13th of Jerry 2587 you just there wasn't a single news media that you didn't pick up and say hey Ford is electric wow it's going to challenge Tesla etc and it goes from 25 down to 15 15 90s now since 1810 leg B it's up today 30% pre-marketed 1840 I have to tell you I think there's a lot more work to be done for Ford to really break out and that says to look at Tesla you remember Tesla had that round number low was a fabulous notation there 700.00 at the round number low of I think that was also the one was at 20 24th of Feb this trading now pre-marketed 879 it's on the 200-period moving average look at the 200-period orange on the left here was tremendous support then it broke down then it became resistance and now it's like a magnet for Tesla to really break away from this 200-period moving average it has to hold above 8 I'd have to say 885 it has to touch it a couple of times and then hold above 880 for about three out of four sessions three times it needs to be holding there and then I say hey that is good action can't just have a pop and a failure because that's a big magnet next question I had was would I look at the semiconductor index say this is pre-market unchanged just about at 268 it 200-period moving average we just saw it right I didn't even realize that we're going to talk about apples to apples look 200-period moving average became a support broke down then became resistance ever since the late January break under the 318 all-time high goes down to 249 rebounds all the way to the 280 area 290.35 on the 10th affair plunges down onto the 24th down to the 246.76 in the dreaded H pattern it is a positive that it's above so I'm thinking that many of the charts are going to make this lower now they're going to make the lowercase to try for another H here on the right side so the semiconductors to break out would have to go to 290 on a closing basis in the weekly chart I just don't see that I think there's a lot of there's a lot of problems if you look at the best of the best look at Nvidia you know same thing looks the same as the SMHs there are some like MEU was doing very well it's still doing very well it's a much much this is one of the best charts that I'm looking at here in the semis micro on tech training in 952.55 went from 98.45 in January January the 5th plunges down to the 75.52 level spirals up to the 96 plunges down to the 84th and now it's training in 93 so this zigzag pattern just says very simply treated as a trap weight inside track repellent zone this whole area here and if it needs to break above 96.80 to 97.50 it needs to close there to say hey I'm making a LED but I'm also breaking out and that'll be a big sign so that's the only one in the whole semiconductor index that I find really worth talking about just chart that I look at I'm there some others I'm sure next question I had before we go to a break is what would you be looking for today let me just go to the futures because the market hasn't opened yet it's got 30 it's got 40 minutes to go so I'm looking at this there's a chance that we match that candle right there January 31st by having a nice pop to the upside the 34,290 is extremely strong 200 period expansion moving average resistance but it's duration I don't want to see it just one of those days where you're up sharply and within the split second you're 20 points down and the S&P then 20 points up there has to be a sustained rally off the 1,315 plus 100 and that'll be a good close the reality is that navigating financial markets can be risky markets can be chaotic and difficult to understand having the latest market advice can help you turn this chaos into a key for creating winning trades at TFNN we understand that it can be hard to find reliable market news that's why each of our 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Mortgage Program may be just the program for you the Tiger First Mortgage Program pays 7% per year paid monthly for more information you can call 877-518-9190 that's 877-518-9190 don't forget you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV I just mentioned in the debt that this chance of the Iranian deal is going to get done and that means that they will release oil reserves that's the only thing that I can see that would actually bring down the price of oil it could bring down the price of many things and that's why the market could be ready to have that bounce today we'll see what happens so and the question Jay the answer is that there's a line that is spurious to say fund buying at the end of the month fund buying at the beginning of the month it does happen but I haven't really seen proof that it actually impacts the market other than the conditions that I'm looking at so it does that's the expression is that there's fund buying and there is because money comes in every month money comes in and they have to put it to use so that's really the issue I think what you and I are both implying is that it impacts the market how do you know on the 24th they weren't buying 25th they weren't buying and all I can say is that we just have to look at the markets I think other people would have better information I just cheated as it's one of the factors so look at wheat wheat is skyrocketing itself 67 at 111 26 look at that smile to the upside look at corn when it's going to soybeans at recovery high it's got an alternate count G-B this is really important one of the reasons why we keep holding the DBA the DBA agricultural fund and that's 21.60 we're in 30s 13s in the 13s this is a big move up and that's just saying prices are going to go higher all the way around so as I wrap up I'm going to hand you over to Tommy O'Brien great show at 9 o'clock in the morning 906 market kickoff and the only other thing I want to say before we wrap it up is yes if the chart pattern we're looking at and we do this one more time is that the 5th candle after the load that was made in the 24th was a big candle to the upside we're going to be watching to see if there's a repeat pattern during the Dow day by seeing the Dow start to move up and holding 120 ball of syringe up until the 40th future have a wonderful day I'll be back for regular time for a check up on people like a user and thank you for Tommy O'Brien great show and I'll see you in the next video goodbye