 But as long as we stay under at least the 20 day supply which we keep on getting rejected, it's very, very tough to get excited for more than one day of rally. Maybe squeeze out two day of rally. Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the access to trader.com. Nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody is doing well. So we're one day away from the Fed announcement. The question is, do they raise, right? Do they absolutely raise with everything going on with oil being crazy? Again, it's been pulled back the last couple of days or so, but with the inflation, with oil, with the war, with this and that. Is this the right time, right? Is this the right time to finally raise rates? Cause we've been hearing about this imminent rate hike now, it feels like about two, three years, but that's kind of what it is. And the question is, is tomorrow going to be finally the day? Whether it's 25, 50, whatever the case may be, I don't know, I have no idea. I'm not an economist. I can't speak intelligently about what the Fed is doing. I probably would guess this three to five people who actually could have this conversation and put the right input behind it. But what we are, we are from the trading cycle. That's all we're talking about here. And the market's been sell bias, right? We've been sell bias heavy for the last couple of months, like we constantly remind people on every single video, just like in a bull market, stocks don't go straight up. And in a bear market, stocks don't go straight down. There's always exaggerated moves back to the upside. And that's exactly what we had today after some pretty good aggressive selling. Notably, obviously the big move in the Nasdaq on March the 9th that got sold off pretty aggressively. So here we are again. So the question is going into tomorrow's session, I'm gonna end this a little bit premature. I have to drive my daughter to a basketball practice. But the most important question for tomorrow is can the bulls sustain more than like 15 minutes of fame? Can they live with prosperity? Can they find love? And it's been very, very tough for the bulls to maintain any levels of consistency or follow through just because of all the dynamic moving parts that we are having above. But tomorrow, can we get that second move? And if you look at where we are, right? If we look at where we are here, we did reclaim the five day moving average. And for the last few times that we reclaimed the five day moving average, the market's been kind of rejected back at the 10 day. You can see here once, twice, basically three times. And that's kind of what we are to make. By the time the Fed speaks tomorrow at two o'clock, I kind of want to be nowhere near the market because it's going to be very, very unpredictable what's going to happen. I do believe if the bulls have the ability to have a day to run, it's going to be early tomorrow. It's going to be pretty aggressive probably until about lunchtime. And then the market's going to go into kind of a holding pattern until that two o'clock area comes along. So I think it's going to be the hardest part about tomorrow is trying to find enough range in some of the names that we all watch, we all trade to get to the 10 day moving average. Are there some clean looks for tomorrow's session? Yeah, I mean, look, Amazon was very, very strong today. Strong, I still think it needs to reclaim the high from that 20 to one stock split announcement to kind of get into this 50 day moving average supply. If you look at NVIDIA, again, you're going to see a lot of charts running into a lot of problems. Is this not enough room into supply? That's where the biggest drawback having any day to confirmation, any day to follow through, but that's our job to try to find these levels. I was more of a bystander today than an active participant, because again, when you have dead cat balances, and again, obviously it's what we have today, when you have dead cat balances, you don't know if these dead cat balances are going to last 15 minutes, an hour and a half or the whole day. And the first candle of today, especially pretty much on all the technology names, we saw really, really strong moves, literally on one candle today, all the way into the top of the channel here. And then the question was, what was going to happen next? We saw a little bit of rejection initially first at the five day moving average, and then the bulls did a great job reclaiming the five day moving average, but now we are here. So now that we've seen what the market does, and we've seen this now several times since the 200 day moving average, this is a tradable market, right? Definitely a tradable market. If you're an investor, very, very tough to get excited. We've seen this movie before, here was the bottom, and then here was the bottom, and then definitely this was the bottom. Okay, it's not about bottoms, it's about what you're doing proactively with your portfolio, if you are an investor, or on the trading side, which we're talking about here. We're not investors, okay? I'm not an investor. I don't sit there sitting, hoping that position goes up or down. We are proactively trading channels. So if you are an investor, and you're watching this, you're probably getting a very little value because that's not what we're talking about. Again, we're not talking about Amazon four years from now being at 4,000. We're not talking about Tesla one day being at 1,500. We're talking about tomorrow and our capability of taking enough data in and making sure it's safe and prudent and have a nice clear path to the goal line so we can capitalize on a day-to-day basis until we reclaim at least, okay, at least the 20 day moving average on the close, which we've, again, time and time again, I've rejected here, you know, forget about the, you know, we're trying to get to the 10, but as long as we stay under at least the 20 day supply, which we keep on getting rejected, it's very, very tough to get excited for more than one day of rallying. Maybe squeeze out two day of rallying, but as we've seen time and time again, ever since we've lost the 200 day moving average, the sell bias is super, super aggressive. The days that we're getting to the downside are phenomenal days, are really, really phenomenal days. So it's very tough to get excited by a debt cap bounce moving up after a stock. It's like put it this way, it's like a stock goes from 200, right, from $200 to $60, and then the next day goes from 60 to 64 and you're doing jumping jacks you won. Again, it's like winning the tallest dwarf competition. We're in a bear market, right? We're in a bear market. We are getting some pretty good, aggressive snapbacks in that bull market, in that bear market on random basis. But again, you don't have to try to convince anybody. As long as you have eyes, you kind of know deep down inside where we are, but the most important part is trying to take advantage of the next day. What can happen? Where's the clearest path to the goal line and how you can get there without putting as much money, as much exposure, a risk as possible? Do we know what's gonna happen after the Fed announces tomorrow? I have no idea. Your guess is as good as mine. A lot of people believe that 25 basis points is already baked in to tomorrow's announcements. We'll see. Can they come out and just start capitulating and say, hey, we're not doing anything? Is that's on the table as well? Is it possible they come in and say, surprise? 50 basis points. I don't think the economy can handle that. But again, with a hell of mine, I have just a random guy who has opinions worth absolutely nothing. But we'll see. We'll absolutely see. So going into tomorrow, you'd like to give the bulls the benefit of doubt, right? Ahead of the Fed meeting, you'd like to see if Amazon could have a day to run. It was pretty damn strong today. Obviously the one who stood out the most. You'd like to see maybe Tesla. Tesla had a nice little pop today. Hasn't even reclaimed the five-day moving average, but maybe tomorrow. Maybe he reclaimed the five-day moving average. It moves up a little higher. Again, the options market is really not dictating to us that the bulls are super aggressive and super excited about potential what's happened tomorrow. But again, it doesn't really make a difference. If the market goes up, we'll find ways to capitalize. At least today's close gave us some definitive channels that we could trade off of tomorrow. Today, I kind of wanted to sit it out. There was a pivot to the downside this morning on Tesla, which was pretty good. It came down about six bucks. There was a pivot off the 785, ran to 801 initially back to the upside on Tesla. And for other than that, pretty much kind of an observer. And a lot of times, I'm not a bear. By no stretch of imagination, I'm not a bear. I'm just kind of a realist what I see in a market such as this. And sometimes when things are a little unclear and the market goes completely the opposite where the normalcy, right? The normalcy has been taking it, especially the last two months. I think it's healthy to sometimes take a step back and kind of just watch the action play out and see if the bulls can actually put up a fight in certain levels. Again, today, you could call it a small victory that the bulls reclaim the five-day moving average and maybe tomorrow have one more day and take it to this 331 level, which is the 10-day moving average. We'll see, we'll see what happens. But I think the biggest story is going into tomorrow's session is obviously the Fed. Where are they as far as short-term rates being risen? And our job is to see how the price action reflects. Now again, if the bulls can close over the 10-day moving average, then tomorrow's video will be, hey, if we reclaim the 10, now let's see if we get to the 20. If we get rejected off the 10-day moving average, as you saw right here and right here and right here, we're obviously gonna turn around and start going lower. So it's all about the Fed tomorrow. There's a lot of channels to the upside that are super duper tight, unless like a name like Amazon reclaims kind of a bigger level here, especially the split buyback announcement high. This is probably the cleanest channel out of everything. If you look at everything else, super duper tight. It's literally trying to squeeze water out of a rock because so many of these stocks have gotten destroyed, like literally destroyed for the last couple of weeks. So if you're trying to win the tallest dwarf competition and talking about this as a victory that bears never learn, you're naive, okay? You're trying to make yourself feel better. It's not gonna make me feel one way or another. I'm a trader, I trade channels. I really don't care which way the market goes, but for the most part, the downside channels have been absolutely phenomenal, great dead cat bounce kudos to the bulls today, but the question is, what does the Fed do tomorrow? How do the price action align and can the bulls play with prosperity for day two? We'll see. To be answered like they say in the old Batman episodes, we'll find out tomorrow. They didn't say that, but that's what I'm saying now. Guys, have a great night. Time for basketball, time for daddy duty. Let's see how the channels play out tomorrow. Let's see where the biggest value is. The most important part is let's see where the biggest room is and we'll act off those channels. Guys, God bless, have a great night. I'll see you all tomorrow.